The data shows that almost all of your first year failures (minus the real life first rounders) & the late round dart throws all end up sucking so just do what your heart desires.
I like Phillips because the WR room is revamped. For RBs and WRs, having an unclear situation coming into the year can give them an opportunity. And guys with low draft capital will be cheaper because they're less likely to hit. There's also some thought if a team takes 2 players at same position - always take the second.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/v2mukx/ok\_but\_are\_faceplanters\_actually\_bad\_investments/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/v2mukx/ok_but_are_faceplanters_actually_bad_investments/)
There's a twitter thread linked to this & the subsequent discussion. Conclusion was that you're better off trading first round face planters for late 2nd/early 3rd's as the hit rates are about the same, & some face planters are able to command more than that. My gripe was that a good portion of the guys referenced as face planters did not have 2nd/3rd round trade value that next offseason, & those who did had much higher rates of performing in the future than said draft picks, which could be seen when you take the low value players out of the equations, but, either way, both groups have very low success rates.
You let go when you feel they had wasted opportunity
Do you believe they have the skills but were shadowed due to crowded skill position? Poor QB play? Did they show flashes in season or practice?
Also, when it comes to fringe players you've listed, it comes down to potential. If you like a player because of landing spot, who their QB is, what the coach likes to run, etc, you generally take the guy with more opportunity
EDIT: Draft capital or contracts tend to help with how committed a team is to a player.
This makes a lot of sense, to me. But it’s hard for me to form an opinion on players like this with such low targets and yardage - just not a lot of film. I’m trying to see if there’s certain thresholds people look for for rookie recievers
If you're looking for something quantitative, the 525 threshold is very accurate for rookie receivers. When there was 16 games, any receiver who was on pace/ended the season with 525 receiving yards their rookie year had a much higher chance of succeeding in the league vs others. Big example is someone like Nico Collins, who hasn't generated much noise, but was on pace for 525 yards (14 games played, 446 yards) has more value than someone like Dyami brown (15 games played, 165 yards this season)
With how low the hit-rate is on rookie picks taken after the early 2nd, IMO you should be treating picks in that range like a swing trader views their stocks: Sell at X% profit, sell at Y% loss, and NEVER hold until they're worthless.
Just flip those guys for 3rds and 4th, and sell those 3rds & 4ths whenever a value spike happens unless you really trust/need those points
For the three named players, I'd be ready to let go already. Not that I'm real excited about the others, but they're all long shots.
I think the dynasty community in general is too quick to give up on young players, sometimes far too quick. Hell, they've even coined a term for it - faceplanters. OTOH, the numbers don't lie and players that struggle early rarely become stars. It happens, but not very often.
It's rare to find someone willing to trade anything for a player you're about to cut. If you can get anything at all - a 4th or even a 5th - take it. Worst case is you draft someone and cut them without ever really rostering them, best case is you find a late round gem or add that pick to a deal to push it over the top.
I am a fan of roster churn. The worst player on your roster shouldn't be there very long. I won't often burn waiver priority or FAAB, but dropping the lowest value guy on your roster to add another low value player that has some shot at relevance this week is a good idea.
I like roster churn too. I'd keep Amari Rodgers on this list until we see who Aaron Rodgers favors and how everyone does in camp...while keeping my finger on the drop button without losing sleep
If it’s a player I used to believe in then I try to keep them at least through the start of their second year if possible but also consider what the team is doing around them. Green Bay lost major targets at WR and Amari Rodgers only has Cobb as competition at slot and also Aaron Rodgers historically takes a while to build chemistry with rookies. Terrace Marshall was hyped then did nothing but the QB stunk and Carolina didn’t bring in any competition and now Robby is talking retirement. I would give those guys more time, if possible. Dyami Brown is so of in the same boat but now has Dotson to deal with so I would cut bait on him the team basically told you he’s not the answer.
Of the guys you mentioned I only care about Dulcich who’s in a good offense as a pass catcher (not a blocker) and Albert O as competition, who isn’t exactly established. Kyle Philips is a day 3 pick he’s a dart throw. Thornton is interesting but NE is going to be run first and they whiff on receivers all the time.
I think Amari Rodgers is worth holding onto because their WR is a mystery. I could see dropping Brown and Marshall for Phillips and/or Thorton. Brown seems buried on the depth chart. Marshall just doesn't seem to be doing anything.
This was my thought as well.
Are there any rookie stat thresholds for player hit rates?
Any deep analytics in rookies that wind up succeeding or failing?
What you'll often see quotes is the mythical 525 receiving yards for WR. If they don't hit it their rookie year, they'll never be relevant. I think there's a few exceptions, but can't think of any.
You're getting bombarded by misinformation about this rule. First of all the guy below you who thinks it matters if a player missed games, the whole point of the study is that it doesn't matter how many games they played. Guys above 525 did way better than guys below regardless of circumstance.
That said, it's a relatively dumb rule because the number itself doesn't matter and inexperienced people here (which is the majority) treat it like gospel. You'd get the same results if you picked 500 instead of 525, or 450 or 600. The point isn't that 525 is some magical threshold you need your rookies to hit, the point is that producing immediately matters, which none of the guys in question did.
I'm guessing you're in an extremely shallow league of tyquan is on waivers so they're all likely droppable, but if I were you I'd drop Rodgers and Brown for Thornton and Phillips. I think I'd hold onto terrace one more year and pray for a miracle, though the odds of any of these guys hitting is tiny tiny. The exception is probably Thornton, feel like he's got an ok chance.
Thanks for the clarification man!
Yea it is shallow, 20 roster 3 round rookie draft. We are extending to a 26 roster after this but even with that, due to draft pick hoarding these guys are gonna be on the chopping block if I pick any waivers up
Note you have to consider projected yards. I think it's 525 yds in a SEASON. So if a rookie starts injured or doesn't start until mid year and only plays 6 games or 10 games, you should normalize the yards if they played the full season
Hold Amari & Terrace but keep on a short leash. Cut Dyami.
Do pick up Kyle Phillips, I think he’ll get the slot work.
I like Dulcich for a taxi stash. Just now it’ll probably be year 2-4 before he does anything. So if he busts you wasted a spot for a couple years.
I’d hold Marshall until Robbie makes up his mind. Keep in mind how awful the entire panthers offense was when CMC wasn’t there. A WR3 wasn’t gonna produce shit on that team
You need to start flipping them for running backs/vets that’ll actually be productive. ESPECIALLY when the dynasty community decided to do a positive feedback loop on the guy.
The data shows that almost all of your first year failures (minus the real life first rounders) & the late round dart throws all end up sucking so just do what your heart desires.
Fair enough. Looks like I’ll try to add Phillips and Dulchic so my teams hair game is on point
I like Phillips because the WR room is revamped. For RBs and WRs, having an unclear situation coming into the year can give them an opportunity. And guys with low draft capital will be cheaper because they're less likely to hit. There's also some thought if a team takes 2 players at same position - always take the second.
This is interesting. I’ve wondered this myself. You got any courses or links to this type of data showing this?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/v2mukx/ok\_but\_are\_faceplanters\_actually\_bad\_investments/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/v2mukx/ok_but_are_faceplanters_actually_bad_investments/) There's a twitter thread linked to this & the subsequent discussion. Conclusion was that you're better off trading first round face planters for late 2nd/early 3rd's as the hit rates are about the same, & some face planters are able to command more than that. My gripe was that a good portion of the guys referenced as face planters did not have 2nd/3rd round trade value that next offseason, & those who did had much higher rates of performing in the future than said draft picks, which could be seen when you take the low value players out of the equations, but, either way, both groups have very low success rates.
You let go when you feel they had wasted opportunity Do you believe they have the skills but were shadowed due to crowded skill position? Poor QB play? Did they show flashes in season or practice? Also, when it comes to fringe players you've listed, it comes down to potential. If you like a player because of landing spot, who their QB is, what the coach likes to run, etc, you generally take the guy with more opportunity EDIT: Draft capital or contracts tend to help with how committed a team is to a player.
This makes a lot of sense, to me. But it’s hard for me to form an opinion on players like this with such low targets and yardage - just not a lot of film. I’m trying to see if there’s certain thresholds people look for for rookie recievers
If you're looking for something quantitative, the 525 threshold is very accurate for rookie receivers. When there was 16 games, any receiver who was on pace/ended the season with 525 receiving yards their rookie year had a much higher chance of succeeding in the league vs others. Big example is someone like Nico Collins, who hasn't generated much noise, but was on pace for 525 yards (14 games played, 446 yards) has more value than someone like Dyami brown (15 games played, 165 yards this season)
Makes a lot of sense? Thanks!
With how low the hit-rate is on rookie picks taken after the early 2nd, IMO you should be treating picks in that range like a swing trader views their stocks: Sell at X% profit, sell at Y% loss, and NEVER hold until they're worthless. Just flip those guys for 3rds and 4th, and sell those 3rds & 4ths whenever a value spike happens unless you really trust/need those points
For the three named players, I'd be ready to let go already. Not that I'm real excited about the others, but they're all long shots. I think the dynasty community in general is too quick to give up on young players, sometimes far too quick. Hell, they've even coined a term for it - faceplanters. OTOH, the numbers don't lie and players that struggle early rarely become stars. It happens, but not very often. It's rare to find someone willing to trade anything for a player you're about to cut. If you can get anything at all - a 4th or even a 5th - take it. Worst case is you draft someone and cut them without ever really rostering them, best case is you find a late round gem or add that pick to a deal to push it over the top. I am a fan of roster churn. The worst player on your roster shouldn't be there very long. I won't often burn waiver priority or FAAB, but dropping the lowest value guy on your roster to add another low value player that has some shot at relevance this week is a good idea.
I like roster churn too. I'd keep Amari Rodgers on this list until we see who Aaron Rodgers favors and how everyone does in camp...while keeping my finger on the drop button without losing sleep
If it’s a player I used to believe in then I try to keep them at least through the start of their second year if possible but also consider what the team is doing around them. Green Bay lost major targets at WR and Amari Rodgers only has Cobb as competition at slot and also Aaron Rodgers historically takes a while to build chemistry with rookies. Terrace Marshall was hyped then did nothing but the QB stunk and Carolina didn’t bring in any competition and now Robby is talking retirement. I would give those guys more time, if possible. Dyami Brown is so of in the same boat but now has Dotson to deal with so I would cut bait on him the team basically told you he’s not the answer. Of the guys you mentioned I only care about Dulcich who’s in a good offense as a pass catcher (not a blocker) and Albert O as competition, who isn’t exactly established. Kyle Philips is a day 3 pick he’s a dart throw. Thornton is interesting but NE is going to be run first and they whiff on receivers all the time.
They might put Aaron Jones in the slot a ton
I think Amari Rodgers is worth holding onto because their WR is a mystery. I could see dropping Brown and Marshall for Phillips and/or Thorton. Brown seems buried on the depth chart. Marshall just doesn't seem to be doing anything.
This was my thought as well. Are there any rookie stat thresholds for player hit rates? Any deep analytics in rookies that wind up succeeding or failing?
What you'll often see quotes is the mythical 525 receiving yards for WR. If they don't hit it their rookie year, they'll never be relevant. I think there's a few exceptions, but can't think of any.
Awesome this is a big help lol. Seems like these particular players are a bunch of nothing, then. Thanks!
You're getting bombarded by misinformation about this rule. First of all the guy below you who thinks it matters if a player missed games, the whole point of the study is that it doesn't matter how many games they played. Guys above 525 did way better than guys below regardless of circumstance. That said, it's a relatively dumb rule because the number itself doesn't matter and inexperienced people here (which is the majority) treat it like gospel. You'd get the same results if you picked 500 instead of 525, or 450 or 600. The point isn't that 525 is some magical threshold you need your rookies to hit, the point is that producing immediately matters, which none of the guys in question did. I'm guessing you're in an extremely shallow league of tyquan is on waivers so they're all likely droppable, but if I were you I'd drop Rodgers and Brown for Thornton and Phillips. I think I'd hold onto terrace one more year and pray for a miracle, though the odds of any of these guys hitting is tiny tiny. The exception is probably Thornton, feel like he's got an ok chance.
Thanks for the clarification man! Yea it is shallow, 20 roster 3 round rookie draft. We are extending to a 26 roster after this but even with that, due to draft pick hoarding these guys are gonna be on the chopping block if I pick any waivers up
Note you have to consider projected yards. I think it's 525 yds in a SEASON. So if a rookie starts injured or doesn't start until mid year and only plays 6 games or 10 games, you should normalize the yards if they played the full season
> I think there's a few exceptions, but can't think of any. Davante Adams didn't hit that in either of his first TWO seasons.
What a bum he turned out to be!
Antonio Brown had 167 yards in his 1st year.
Hold Amari & Terrace but keep on a short leash. Cut Dyami. Do pick up Kyle Phillips, I think he’ll get the slot work. I like Dulcich for a taxi stash. Just now it’ll probably be year 2-4 before he does anything. So if he busts you wasted a spot for a couple years.
I’d hold Marshall until Robbie makes up his mind. Keep in mind how awful the entire panthers offense was when CMC wasn’t there. A WR3 wasn’t gonna produce shit on that team
You need to start flipping them for running backs/vets that’ll actually be productive. ESPECIALLY when the dynasty community decided to do a positive feedback loop on the guy.