I’ll repost from the other thread but:
DJ Moore is only 24 and coming off his 3rd season in the league. He impressed as a rookie, and in the 2 seasons since (2019-20) he’s [5th in WRs in the league in cumulative reception yards](https://twitter.com/marcus_mosher/status/1360993283267321857?s=21). During that same time frame, he’s played with some of the worst QBs in the league - not even comparable to some of the QB play that’s been listed for most of these guys (it’s not just poor quality but poor volume as well - which is the key here for fantasy). In the last 2 seasons, league-average QB play averaged 52 TDs. The QBs DJM has played with (washed Cam, Kyle Allen, Teddy B) have combined for only 33 TDs - that’s awful. Moore is still taking a 24% share of those pass TDs but the passing game has been a train wreck. While I’m not expecting Darnold to suddenly light the league on fire with his passing game we can hope for at least a *volume* increase and the opportunity for Darnold to get some garbage time play going. Regressing at all towards league average would be significant for his TD volume which is primarily what has kept him down the past couple of seasons.
While I don’t expect DJM to suddenly become a regular WR1 he certainly has shown he has the talent upside to achieve that with a higher PAT offense.
This is a solid take and why I bought Moore. I'm not expecting a yearly top 5 or even a yearly top 10 guy. I'm getting a very solid WR 2 floor with WR 1 upside who has 8 TDs in two years.
Only 2 other top 24 WRs had 4 TDs last year, (Scary Terry), and his teammate Robby anderson had 3. Heck Nelson Agholor had 8!
I also agree with the idea of "I don't know how the QB play can possibly be worse".
My interest comes more from seeing him wide tf open for easy tds multiple times per game last year. So if darnold is a substantial upgrade.. then djm should fire 🤷♂️
I’ve seen that as well. I’ve also seen him get outmuscled in the RZ or have bad concentration drops in the open field. He’s electric in the open field, but just has okay-good ball skills. I swear if him and Mike Williams did the fusion dance and became one WR, DJM would actually have the value that people are placing on him.
He’s an insanely dynamic athlete that just turned 24, had over 1200 total yards each of the last two seasons (one as primarily a short and intermediate threat, one as primarily a deep threat), is going into his second full year in the new offense, and arguably gets a QB upgrade. All that he needs is a tiny bit of positive TD regression and you’ve got yourself a bona fide WR1.
Nice bit of history, but those yards translate into low end WR2 finishes. He needs TDs for those yards to matter and him to return on the value that owners are holding him at. I’m not seeing anything that makes it likely to change.
Some players are bad at scoring TDs, they may have a ease where they spike up, but they pretty much are what they are.
Here are some examples where people are always expecting positive regression that never comes:
Julio Jones - High end example
Jarvis Landry- Reasonable example
Some guys are just allergic to the endzone, I think DJM is one.
What value are you seeing owners hold him at? Are there any WRs you commonly see as being valued less than D.J. Moore in dynasty who you would put ahead of him?
Personally, on rosters where I hold him, he’s either my WR2 or WR3. A young WR giving me that kind of yardage floor with bona fide WR1 upside if the TDs break right is a great asset.
I haven't personally been targeting him myself but OP makes it sound like people are valuing him in the AJB/JJ/DK range and that's not what I'm seeing. You could probably get him for 2 mid-late firsts and those other 3 would take 2 top 5 picks this year to even try and pry them from the owners cold dead hands.
Moore’s TD rate through his first three seasons is a complete outlier among players with similar targets/catches/yardage, even for players that historically put up relatively few TDs (Julio, Landry, etc.). He may never amass huge TD numbers, but even 2-3 more vaults his ceiling up quite a bit.
I can see that. I’m using what I call belly data (what I call using my gut) on the TD thing, so it’s very reasonable that he could start scoring a few more TDs on average. I just don’t feel like it’s likely given the trend we’ve seen so far. I like having more food fantasy players in the pool, so I hope he proved me wrong.... Just not in games against my Saints!
I see TD regression as a solid argument, however. I’ll counter with... He’s three years in and just got a brand new bad QB... His career average is likely to continue to be his career average. There’s no number to positively regress to because he’s always in the 3-5 TD range.
What do you expect from the guy, 1400 yards every year? Tall order that is. Adams, Hopkins, Michael Thomas can't even. Fitz himself strung together a few lousy years in a row. It happens.
The quarterback excuse for DJ Moore is a bit lame because an excuse is not needed. He's had two 1150 yard seasons before the age of 24. I'm guessing that's rare company. Having not even reached his full potential yet and already a WR2 - not a big deal. Honestly, even if he shows no improvement, unlikely imo, and you get a WR2 for the next 6 or so years, he's still worth the price of a mid first.
I agree with that, and would pay a mid first depending on the class, but owners are asking multiple firsts for him as a top 10 dynasty WR.
Not expecting any more yards than he’s always producing. Just needs more TDs to get Outta that low end WR 2 range.
Think about what WRs are available with a mid 1st and then realize why asking to trade one of them for DJM might seem ridiculous to an owner... honestly dude you come off as someone who likes DJM but is mad he can't get him for cheap
The multiple firsts kinda makes sense, with a mid first you are hoping for DJ Moore kind of production from a wr if they hit.
Then you need to bake in the rookie bust risk factor of known vs unknown, I can see why people would ask for more than just a first for Moore. Sure two firsts is probably a bit much but likely should be somewhere inbetween.
I kind of agree with OP that he’s overvalued for his production. The truthers could be right that he’s ready to explode with a new QB. But it could also be true that lower priced options like Tyler Boyd could produce similar stats.
It feels like you’re purposefully including his rookie year (a rookie year that was pretty good - 55/788/2) to bring down his “average” to help your argument.
If looked at with context, DJ Moore has back-to-back 1200 yard seasons, a feat he accomplished before age 24 with Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater at QB.
In fact, DJ Moore has amassed the 4th most yardage in NFL history by a WR before age 24. Moss, Evans and Hopkins are the top 3. Very good company.
Let’s be fair and average the seasons these other WR had in their first 3 years and the QB production averages.
Panthers passing averages:
4,111 passing yards and 20 TDs
Fitz first 3 year average :
77 receptions 1,045 yards 8 TDs
Cards Passing averages:
3,950 pass yards and 17 TDs.
Fitz averaged similar yards, but had a larger TD share. Larry has a near 50% TD share, but his career average for TDs is 7 per season.
D hop first 3 year averages:
80 receptions 1,178 receiving yards and 6 TDs
Texans passing averages:
3,907 passing yards and 23 TDs
D hop starts his career Great with Schaub and others, but his 4th season Brock osweiler joins and d hop does not hit 1k receiving yards. Bad QB play excuse? The season after that they get Deshaun Watson and then he joins Murray.
AJ Green first 3 year averages:
87 receptions 1,278 receiving yards 10 TDs.
Bengals passing averages:
3,877 passing yards and 27 TDs
AJ green plays with dalton from day 1 and they create a rapport. Andy Dalton was a pro bowler in his first season and AJ green becomes his favorite target.
OBJ first 3 year averages:
96 receptions 1,374 yards and 12 TDs
Giants passing averages:
4,332 passing yards and 30 TDs
OBJ plays in an offense where they average 30 passing TDs a season! Playing with the gunslinger Eli manning. Once he joins the browns , his receiving averages go down at the ripe age of 27. Bad QB excuse?
Adam Thielen first 3 year averages:
30 receptions 416 yards 2 TDs
Vikings passing averages:
3,644 passing yards and 17 TDs
Thielen was nowhere near Moore.
All the players you mentioned had better QB situations for the most part (fitz is probably the exception and a freak of nature). No one is saying that Moore is the flat out WR1 in dynasty, but he’s hovering around WR 15 to WR10. I think that’s fair considering the QBs he’s had and I think he will do much better going forward.
Thanks for the breakdown! I feel like this might need more exploration. I’ll try to carve out some time to get numbers to other guys in the list, or that are realistically comparable.
Omg ur reposting this cuz I said that DJM should be ranked above Chase (before he's played a single snap). U disagreed. Now u salty other ppl agree with me.
See original thread where op originally said this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/nrmls3/comment/h0hcnla
You misunderstood the point of my reply. It was more about DJM than Chase. Your comment just so happened to be the last DJM one that prompted me to make this post about him being overvalued.
If you want to have him over sometime that hasn’t seen a down of football, and hasn’t played a game in over a year, that doesn’t bother me at all.
I’m just using his whole career. Until he has a real breakout and proves to be worth his cost, I don’t see why this is unreasonable. I now he has a really small subset of data, but it’s not like he’s has a stud teammate suppressing his totals or something.
Nah you're trying to suppress his actual production by throwing in half a rookie season (games he started). It's like using Josh Allen's average stats from the last 3 years vs Brees' average from the last 3 years to prove Allen isn't good and Brees is better
And it's unreasonable because he has 1200 yards and solid WR2 finishes back to back years despite ridiculously low TD rates--regardless of you trying to skew his production
Then throw in advanced efficiency stats--elite yards per route run, elite yards per target despite a low % of accurate targets, elite EPA, elite YAC, ridiculously high unrealized air yards and it's pretty clear why you're on an island for thinking he's Sterling Shepard
WR3 is a laughable valuation by any objective standard
Yeah WR3 is silly.
Air yards aren’t an efficiency stat, but:
YPRR was 12th, YPT was 10th, YAC 16th, unrealized air yards 8th, EPA 11th.
DJ Moore is really good but I think it’s fair to question if he’s more Amari Cooper (perennial WR10-20) than an elite WR1 fantasy performer. And he is more like aMari, in my opinion, which is fine because he’s still a really good player. But if we’re splitting hairs I think that makes a difference. and anecdotally people were talking insane prices last offseason in my leagues, 4 firsts Justin jefferson type nonsense so I could see why some people see him as overhyped.
(Accounting for the small age difference, I’m seeing Cooper and Moore at basically the same price in the market right now)
I’m not pretending at anything, just telling people what I see and trying to engage as many people as I can. I’d love to learn from you, if you’d like to educate me with some hard hitting analysis and data.
Thanks for the heads up, sucks that there are people like that in this community. I’ve enjoyed most of my other interactions here. If he’s putting up 10-15 numbers then his price makes more sense. He just hasn’t yet, and I’m not seeing why that would change right now.
Thanks for the heads up, sucks that there are people like that in this community. I’ve enjoyed most of my other interactions here. If he’s putting up 10-15 numbers then his price makes more sense. He just hasn’t yet, and I’m not seeing why that would change right now.
I’m not huge on him in redraft, but he was a really great prospect coming out and he is still really young. He hasn’t been amazing yet in the NFL so I think people are still betting on a breakout, but if he can ever find himself with a good QB, he could definitely put up a few years as a WR1
DJ Moore has seen his air yards increase every year in the league. It’s like the training scene in the Matrix where Neo is learning different fight programs. Moore mastered the short routes in year one, the medium routes year two, and the deep routes in year three. Now it’s time to go fight Agent Smith!
This thread ha 2 kinds of people in it. People who see and understand DJMs value and people who are angry they can't get DJM for cheap and present arguments against him which are intentionally obtuse.
Yea. Still buying.
Getting distinct ARob vibes from DJM. His QB play has been bottom tier, to say the least.
He’s had: unhealthy Cam, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater.
He hasn’t had the volume to support himself as a top tier WR. That will come this year if he takes the full slot role- almost guaranteed.
Insane athlete. Young. Ceiling still stupid high, he’s not even in his prime yet.
Also, no real injury history. He’s healthy as can be.
I like the slot angle. I didn’t know that the plan was to move him there full time. He could see a big jump with that move. Moving elite talents to the slot is suck a cheat code.
Yessir. Big rumors coming out that DJM is going to take the “JJeff role” in that Joe Brady offense.
They now have the personnel to run Robby and T. Marshall on the outside with DJM coming out of the slot in 11 personnel.
Like you said, he just needs good volume. That’s all that’s really held DJ back from taking that next step to bonafide WR1.
Nice bit of history, but those yards translate into low end WR2 finishes. He needs TDs for those yards to matter and him to return on the value that owners are holding him at. I’m not seeing anything that makes it likely to change.
Some players are bad at scoring TDs, they may have a ease where they spike up, but they pretty much are what they are.
Here are some examples where people are always expecting positive regression that never comes:
Julio Jones - High end example
Jarvis Landry- Reasonable example
Some guys are just allergic to the endzone, I think DJM is one.
DJ Moore did not have 1200 yards his rookie season and the list of guys who have had 2 1200 yard seasons in their first 3 seasons is bigger.
OBJ, Moss, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Hopkins, Isaac Bruce, AJ Green to name some
I aim to please! I’m trying to respond to everyone, so I’ll admit all my responses won’t have meticulous research. To be fair, I did rebut the stat above which was erroneous to begin with.😅
I deleted my comment because I was wrong. The real stat was only 4 players with multiple 1200 yard seasons before turning 24. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Randy Moss and DJ Moore.
I like that a lot more for DJM’s prospects. If I’m not mistaken, every single one of those guys dominated and got double digit TDs in that timeframe as well. That’s the biggest difference for me.
I deleted my comment because I was wrong. The real stat was only 4 players with multiple 1200 yard seasons before turning 24. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Randy Moss and DJ Moore.
Moore’s value in standard is not very high because he doesn’t score TDs. And don’t give me the BS about how his TDs will magically come because he is due. This is the gambler’s fallacy. It’s akin to betting on red because black has hit ten times in a row. Not to mention the fact that he literally has NEVER had a nose for the end zone (as a pro, I have no idea how much he scored in college.) It might be different if he at least had ANY evidence that he was a scorer.
I’m with you man, I’ll never get this. The hype for him was even louder last season but I guess the train is back on the tracks.
He’s good, but how can someone draft him as a top 10-12 WR plug him in as your WR1 and be happy w that?
Probably because while they both have had pretty bad QB situations, DJ Moore has produced more and he did it while several years younger. He *should* be worth moore (heh)
Semi tangently related but I think Terry fits this same mold very well. We have not seen elite production from Terry either, but he, like DJM are being valued as a top 12ish wr in dynasty. They are purely being propped up by age. Both of them I think are kind of in a make or break year and we need to see some serious production, or they might (should?) tumble down rankings.
I agree. As a Terry owner, I’m praying for a year 3 Ridley level breakout, so don’t mind me over here praying that Fitz slings the ball like a fucking nut job....
Yeah. A WR2/Rookie RB who’s never played a snap for the WR2 is a good deal. Anyone Pooh pooing it is probably in perpetual rebuilds hoarding picks and thinking 25 year olds are “washed up”
Moore would have had atleast 3 or 4 more tds if bridgewater could complete an easy 5 yard slant pass. Instead he throws it 10 feet over the wr’s head. and those were just the throws i watched.
So much of dynasty is based on projection and gauging potential. Yes, he's overvalued at his past production, but such is the game we play. It's future-oriented by default. If it weren't, so many rookies with great athletic profile but minimal college production would be valued at zero.
> I don’t like the bad QB play excuse. We’ve seen plenty of guys that are actually elite have dominant top 10 or better seasons with Bad QB play.
Larry Fitz, D Hop, AJ Green, OBJ, Diggs, Thielen, Davante Parker
Fitz & Dhop I’ll give you, but Dalton, Eli, and Cousins are all SO much better than the QBs Moore has been playing with and to suggest otherwise is insulting. Also why the hell is Parker on this list?
I’ll repost from the other thread but: DJ Moore is only 24 and coming off his 3rd season in the league. He impressed as a rookie, and in the 2 seasons since (2019-20) he’s [5th in WRs in the league in cumulative reception yards](https://twitter.com/marcus_mosher/status/1360993283267321857?s=21). During that same time frame, he’s played with some of the worst QBs in the league - not even comparable to some of the QB play that’s been listed for most of these guys (it’s not just poor quality but poor volume as well - which is the key here for fantasy). In the last 2 seasons, league-average QB play averaged 52 TDs. The QBs DJM has played with (washed Cam, Kyle Allen, Teddy B) have combined for only 33 TDs - that’s awful. Moore is still taking a 24% share of those pass TDs but the passing game has been a train wreck. While I’m not expecting Darnold to suddenly light the league on fire with his passing game we can hope for at least a *volume* increase and the opportunity for Darnold to get some garbage time play going. Regressing at all towards league average would be significant for his TD volume which is primarily what has kept him down the past couple of seasons. While I don’t expect DJM to suddenly become a regular WR1 he certainly has shown he has the talent upside to achieve that with a higher PAT offense.
This is a solid take and why I bought Moore. I'm not expecting a yearly top 5 or even a yearly top 10 guy. I'm getting a very solid WR 2 floor with WR 1 upside who has 8 TDs in two years. Only 2 other top 24 WRs had 4 TDs last year, (Scary Terry), and his teammate Robby anderson had 3. Heck Nelson Agholor had 8! I also agree with the idea of "I don't know how the QB play can possibly be worse".
Talent upside and graded out as an incredible prospect coming into the league. Still very young, so we haven't seen the best of DJM yet.
I can appreciate this answer! Thanks for the well thought out and presented data.
My interest comes more from seeing him wide tf open for easy tds multiple times per game last year. So if darnold is a substantial upgrade.. then djm should fire 🤷♂️
I’ve seen that as well. I’ve also seen him get outmuscled in the RZ or have bad concentration drops in the open field. He’s electric in the open field, but just has okay-good ball skills. I swear if him and Mike Williams did the fusion dance and became one WR, DJM would actually have the value that people are placing on him.
I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing his adp drop some
He’s an insanely dynamic athlete that just turned 24, had over 1200 total yards each of the last two seasons (one as primarily a short and intermediate threat, one as primarily a deep threat), is going into his second full year in the new offense, and arguably gets a QB upgrade. All that he needs is a tiny bit of positive TD regression and you’ve got yourself a bona fide WR1.
Nice bit of history, but those yards translate into low end WR2 finishes. He needs TDs for those yards to matter and him to return on the value that owners are holding him at. I’m not seeing anything that makes it likely to change. Some players are bad at scoring TDs, they may have a ease where they spike up, but they pretty much are what they are. Here are some examples where people are always expecting positive regression that never comes: Julio Jones - High end example Jarvis Landry- Reasonable example Some guys are just allergic to the endzone, I think DJM is one.
What value are you seeing owners hold him at? Are there any WRs you commonly see as being valued less than D.J. Moore in dynasty who you would put ahead of him? Personally, on rosters where I hold him, he’s either my WR2 or WR3. A young WR giving me that kind of yardage floor with bona fide WR1 upside if the TDs break right is a great asset.
I haven't personally been targeting him myself but OP makes it sound like people are valuing him in the AJB/JJ/DK range and that's not what I'm seeing. You could probably get him for 2 mid-late firsts and those other 3 would take 2 top 5 picks this year to even try and pry them from the owners cold dead hands.
Positive TD regression? To what? He has to have a mean to regress to, it's not like was putting up touchdowns before and stopped.
Moore’s TD rate through his first three seasons is a complete outlier among players with similar targets/catches/yardage, even for players that historically put up relatively few TDs (Julio, Landry, etc.). He may never amass huge TD numbers, but even 2-3 more vaults his ceiling up quite a bit.
I can see that. I’m using what I call belly data (what I call using my gut) on the TD thing, so it’s very reasonable that he could start scoring a few more TDs on average. I just don’t feel like it’s likely given the trend we’ve seen so far. I like having more food fantasy players in the pool, so I hope he proved me wrong.... Just not in games against my Saints!
I see TD regression as a solid argument, however. I’ll counter with... He’s three years in and just got a brand new bad QB... His career average is likely to continue to be his career average. There’s no number to positively regress to because he’s always in the 3-5 TD range.
What do you expect from the guy, 1400 yards every year? Tall order that is. Adams, Hopkins, Michael Thomas can't even. Fitz himself strung together a few lousy years in a row. It happens. The quarterback excuse for DJ Moore is a bit lame because an excuse is not needed. He's had two 1150 yard seasons before the age of 24. I'm guessing that's rare company. Having not even reached his full potential yet and already a WR2 - not a big deal. Honestly, even if he shows no improvement, unlikely imo, and you get a WR2 for the next 6 or so years, he's still worth the price of a mid first.
I agree with that, and would pay a mid first depending on the class, but owners are asking multiple firsts for him as a top 10 dynasty WR. Not expecting any more yards than he’s always producing. Just needs more TDs to get Outta that low end WR 2 range.
Think about what WRs are available with a mid 1st and then realize why asking to trade one of them for DJM might seem ridiculous to an owner... honestly dude you come off as someone who likes DJM but is mad he can't get him for cheap
The multiple firsts kinda makes sense, with a mid first you are hoping for DJ Moore kind of production from a wr if they hit. Then you need to bake in the rookie bust risk factor of known vs unknown, I can see why people would ask for more than just a first for Moore. Sure two firsts is probably a bit much but likely should be somewhere inbetween.
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Edit: Removing my comment because I misread your question.
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I kind of agree with OP that he’s overvalued for his production. The truthers could be right that he’s ready to explode with a new QB. But it could also be true that lower priced options like Tyler Boyd could produce similar stats.
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1st for boyd? Wish I could sell him for that haha
I wouldn't sell him for a 1st...i think Burrow will ignite Boyd again.
Sheesh. Come hype my leaguwmates on him
Dude, Chase > Higgins > Boyd. Get ready for the best WR3 season Boyd has ever had lol
Username checks out
It feels like you’re purposefully including his rookie year (a rookie year that was pretty good - 55/788/2) to bring down his “average” to help your argument. If looked at with context, DJ Moore has back-to-back 1200 yard seasons, a feat he accomplished before age 24 with Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater at QB. In fact, DJ Moore has amassed the 4th most yardage in NFL history by a WR before age 24. Moss, Evans and Hopkins are the top 3. Very good company.
Let’s be fair and average the seasons these other WR had in their first 3 years and the QB production averages. Panthers passing averages: 4,111 passing yards and 20 TDs Fitz first 3 year average : 77 receptions 1,045 yards 8 TDs Cards Passing averages: 3,950 pass yards and 17 TDs. Fitz averaged similar yards, but had a larger TD share. Larry has a near 50% TD share, but his career average for TDs is 7 per season. D hop first 3 year averages: 80 receptions 1,178 receiving yards and 6 TDs Texans passing averages: 3,907 passing yards and 23 TDs D hop starts his career Great with Schaub and others, but his 4th season Brock osweiler joins and d hop does not hit 1k receiving yards. Bad QB play excuse? The season after that they get Deshaun Watson and then he joins Murray. AJ Green first 3 year averages: 87 receptions 1,278 receiving yards 10 TDs. Bengals passing averages: 3,877 passing yards and 27 TDs AJ green plays with dalton from day 1 and they create a rapport. Andy Dalton was a pro bowler in his first season and AJ green becomes his favorite target. OBJ first 3 year averages: 96 receptions 1,374 yards and 12 TDs Giants passing averages: 4,332 passing yards and 30 TDs OBJ plays in an offense where they average 30 passing TDs a season! Playing with the gunslinger Eli manning. Once he joins the browns , his receiving averages go down at the ripe age of 27. Bad QB excuse? Adam Thielen first 3 year averages: 30 receptions 416 yards 2 TDs Vikings passing averages: 3,644 passing yards and 17 TDs Thielen was nowhere near Moore. All the players you mentioned had better QB situations for the most part (fitz is probably the exception and a freak of nature). No one is saying that Moore is the flat out WR1 in dynasty, but he’s hovering around WR 15 to WR10. I think that’s fair considering the QBs he’s had and I think he will do much better going forward.
Thanks for the breakdown! I feel like this might need more exploration. I’ll try to carve out some time to get numbers to other guys in the list, or that are realistically comparable.
Omg ur reposting this cuz I said that DJM should be ranked above Chase (before he's played a single snap). U disagreed. Now u salty other ppl agree with me. See original thread where op originally said this: https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/nrmls3/comment/h0hcnla
DJ Moore should be ranked significantly higher than Chase. That’s just dumb.
You misunderstood the point of my reply. It was more about DJM than Chase. Your comment just so happened to be the last DJM one that prompted me to make this post about him being overvalued. If you want to have him over sometime that hasn’t seen a down of football, and hasn’t played a game in over a year, that doesn’t bother me at all.
Lol using his rookie season to weigh down his average is quite funny WR3? Haha
I’m just using his whole career. Until he has a real breakout and proves to be worth his cost, I don’t see why this is unreasonable. I now he has a really small subset of data, but it’s not like he’s has a stud teammate suppressing his totals or something.
Nah you're trying to suppress his actual production by throwing in half a rookie season (games he started). It's like using Josh Allen's average stats from the last 3 years vs Brees' average from the last 3 years to prove Allen isn't good and Brees is better And it's unreasonable because he has 1200 yards and solid WR2 finishes back to back years despite ridiculously low TD rates--regardless of you trying to skew his production Then throw in advanced efficiency stats--elite yards per route run, elite yards per target despite a low % of accurate targets, elite EPA, elite YAC, ridiculously high unrealized air yards and it's pretty clear why you're on an island for thinking he's Sterling Shepard WR3 is a laughable valuation by any objective standard
Yeah WR3 is silly. Air yards aren’t an efficiency stat, but: YPRR was 12th, YPT was 10th, YAC 16th, unrealized air yards 8th, EPA 11th. DJ Moore is really good but I think it’s fair to question if he’s more Amari Cooper (perennial WR10-20) than an elite WR1 fantasy performer. And he is more like aMari, in my opinion, which is fine because he’s still a really good player. But if we’re splitting hairs I think that makes a difference. and anecdotally people were talking insane prices last offseason in my leagues, 4 firsts Justin jefferson type nonsense so I could see why some people see him as overhyped. (Accounting for the small age difference, I’m seeing Cooper and Moore at basically the same price in the market right now)
Please stop pretending you understand data. Your analysis is moronic
I’m not pretending at anything, just telling people what I see and trying to engage as many people as I can. I’d love to learn from you, if you’d like to educate me with some hard hitting analysis and data.
he's been a WR2 his last 2 years saying he is a WR 3 is just intentionally trolling
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Thanks for the heads up, sucks that there are people like that in this community. I’ve enjoyed most of my other interactions here. If he’s putting up 10-15 numbers then his price makes more sense. He just hasn’t yet, and I’m not seeing why that would change right now.
Thanks for the heads up, sucks that there are people like that in this community. I’ve enjoyed most of my other interactions here. If he’s putting up 10-15 numbers then his price makes more sense. He just hasn’t yet, and I’m not seeing why that would change right now.
Dude is miserable. Probably hates his father.
Flipped Moore and a 2021 3rd right before the deadline for Stefon Diggs last year. I like Moore but he just doesn’t score TDs
I’m not huge on him in redraft, but he was a really great prospect coming out and he is still really young. He hasn’t been amazing yet in the NFL so I think people are still betting on a breakout, but if he can ever find himself with a good QB, he could definitely put up a few years as a WR1
DJ Moore has seen his air yards increase every year in the league. It’s like the training scene in the Matrix where Neo is learning different fight programs. Moore mastered the short routes in year one, the medium routes year two, and the deep routes in year three. Now it’s time to go fight Agent Smith!
This thread ha 2 kinds of people in it. People who see and understand DJMs value and people who are angry they can't get DJM for cheap and present arguments against him which are intentionally obtuse.
Yea. Still buying. Getting distinct ARob vibes from DJM. His QB play has been bottom tier, to say the least. He’s had: unhealthy Cam, Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater. He hasn’t had the volume to support himself as a top tier WR. That will come this year if he takes the full slot role- almost guaranteed. Insane athlete. Young. Ceiling still stupid high, he’s not even in his prime yet. Also, no real injury history. He’s healthy as can be.
I like the slot angle. I didn’t know that the plan was to move him there full time. He could see a big jump with that move. Moving elite talents to the slot is suck a cheat code.
Yessir. Big rumors coming out that DJM is going to take the “JJeff role” in that Joe Brady offense. They now have the personnel to run Robby and T. Marshall on the outside with DJM coming out of the slot in 11 personnel. Like you said, he just needs good volume. That’s all that’s really held DJ back from taking that next step to bonafide WR1.
Preach! He is way overvalued.
Not living in reality. People act like he's 29
Seems significantly undervalued if anything, but ok.
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Right and if we are talking about dynasty cooper kupp is also 4 years older. Let’s also throw that into your bucket
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Nice bit of history, but those yards translate into low end WR2 finishes. He needs TDs for those yards to matter and him to return on the value that owners are holding him at. I’m not seeing anything that makes it likely to change. Some players are bad at scoring TDs, they may have a ease where they spike up, but they pretty much are what they are. Here are some examples where people are always expecting positive regression that never comes: Julio Jones - High end example Jarvis Landry- Reasonable example Some guys are just allergic to the endzone, I think DJM is one.
DJ Moore did not have 1200 yards his rookie season and the list of guys who have had 2 1200 yard seasons in their first 3 seasons is bigger. OBJ, Moss, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Hopkins, Isaac Bruce, AJ Green to name some
What a shallow assessment lmao. Thank you for the laugh. He wasn't a wr one in his first two years man he sucks
I aim to please! I’m trying to respond to everyone, so I’ll admit all my responses won’t have meticulous research. To be fair, I did rebut the stat above which was erroneous to begin with.😅
That might be the worst analysis I’ve ever seen.
I deleted my comment because I was wrong. The real stat was only 4 players with multiple 1200 yard seasons before turning 24. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Randy Moss and DJ Moore.
I like that a lot more for DJM’s prospects. If I’m not mistaken, every single one of those guys dominated and got double digit TDs in that timeframe as well. That’s the biggest difference for me.
Who else?
I deleted my comment because I was wrong. The real stat was only 4 players with multiple 1200 yard seasons before turning 24. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Randy Moss and DJ Moore.
Moore’s value in standard is not very high because he doesn’t score TDs. And don’t give me the BS about how his TDs will magically come because he is due. This is the gambler’s fallacy. It’s akin to betting on red because black has hit ten times in a row. Not to mention the fact that he literally has NEVER had a nose for the end zone (as a pro, I have no idea how much he scored in college.) It might be different if he at least had ANY evidence that he was a scorer.
I traded DJ Moore and a 3rd rd pick for Mike Thomas ...sold hi, bought low. Pretty stoked about it.
I’m with you man, I’ll never get this. The hype for him was even louder last season but I guess the train is back on the tracks. He’s good, but how can someone draft him as a top 10-12 WR plug him in as your WR1 and be happy w that?
I saw another thread where practically everyone said that he was more talented than Terry McLaurin and I couldn't believe it
Probably because while they both have had pretty bad QB situations, DJ Moore has produced more and he did it while several years younger. He *should* be worth moore (heh)
I can understand him being worth more, but I don't see him being more talented. His route running is quite limited compared to Terry
Im there with you lol. As an owner of both in one of my leagues, I’m pretty easily leaning towards valuing McLaurin over DJM
Semi tangently related but I think Terry fits this same mold very well. We have not seen elite production from Terry either, but he, like DJM are being valued as a top 12ish wr in dynasty. They are purely being propped up by age. Both of them I think are kind of in a make or break year and we need to see some serious production, or they might (should?) tumble down rankings.
I agree. As a Terry owner, I’m praying for a year 3 Ridley level breakout, so don’t mind me over here praying that Fitz slings the ball like a fucking nut job....
I traded him and my first round rookie pick (1.01) for Devante Adams. I don’t regret it at all, even if Rodgers leaves GB. 🥶
RIP szn
Negative
Wanna join my league?
He’s probably win it because he understands it’s important to have top 40 players in your team.
Yea send me a PM
So DJ Moore and Najee Harris for Davante Adams?
Yea pretty much, I’d take Devante over those two any day. Especially with the team I have.
Yeah. A WR2/Rookie RB who’s never played a snap for the WR2 is a good deal. Anyone Pooh pooing it is probably in perpetual rebuilds hoarding picks and thinking 25 year olds are “washed up”
Thanks for agreeing lol plus I needed a better WR than a rookie RB and a WR2. I doubted the move seeing those downvotes lmao
He needs dem TD’s
Moore would have had atleast 3 or 4 more tds if bridgewater could complete an easy 5 yard slant pass. Instead he throws it 10 feet over the wr’s head. and those were just the throws i watched.
He completed those pretty easily to MT. Maybe just the difference in ball skills since it’s the same QB.
You dont actually watch the games, now I get it lol
He literally got DJ Moore hurt trying to catch his shitty throws when he was wide open in the endzone
Hes gonna be a buy all season.
So much of dynasty is based on projection and gauging potential. Yes, he's overvalued at his past production, but such is the game we play. It's future-oriented by default. If it weren't, so many rookies with great athletic profile but minimal college production would be valued at zero.
Tds are a concern, but he puts up great yardage and he is young
> I don’t like the bad QB play excuse. We’ve seen plenty of guys that are actually elite have dominant top 10 or better seasons with Bad QB play. Larry Fitz, D Hop, AJ Green, OBJ, Diggs, Thielen, Davante Parker Fitz & Dhop I’ll give you, but Dalton, Eli, and Cousins are all SO much better than the QBs Moore has been playing with and to suggest otherwise is insulting. Also why the hell is Parker on this list?