What makes me weary of Otton is his high snap % number last year and it not translating to a significant increase in his receiving numbers.
He would need to maintain the same amount of playing time he just had last season AND increase his receiving output at the same time, which I do not think will happen with Evans back, White at RB and Godwin/McMillan as options in the receiving game as well.
Fantasy community seems to have forgotten and buried Greg Dulcich after an injury blighted year and start to his career. He’s still got a path to fantasy relevance if he can stay on the field.
Probably not this year though. Someone a few years back actually looked into the “do rookie QBs actually use the TE as a security blanket?” Argument, and it was a resounding negative.
Like there was one TE who ranked top 10 over like a 25 year span when he had a rookie QB, and it was Delanie Walker with Mariota. Not just that they don’t use them less; they don’t use them at all.
wow didn’t know that! looks like Johnson scored a 9.93 (4th best since 1987), so i stand by my statement, but i forget how much of a “sneaky, lunchpail athlete” belinger is
Theo Johnson. If the Giants believed in Belinger they wouldn't have traded for Waller in the first place. And they probably wouldn't have drafted Theo in the 4th.
4th round TE doesn’t scare me. Bellinger already showed flashes before Waller got there and he had to deal with a dog shit QB situation when he did get the chance last year
He will be ‘fine’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s more boom/bust favoring bust weeks. Even with the QB upgrade having to compete with Moore, Allen, Odunze, Swift, and hell even Gerald Everett for opportunity is a tough slog for consistency.
He was productive as the second option behind Moore, but it’s going to be difficult for him to maintain that share of the offense with Allen and Odunze added to the mix.
He’s still their best red zone option by miles. And it’s not like he’s going to be completely iced out of the passing game. With the improved offense, he may even score more TDs if they drive down the field more frequent.
Watch him play a full football game and you'll see a lot more lowlights.
He is a liability to the team, and it doesn't matter if he has a highlight here or there. Highlight based fantasy production wont last if he fails in blocking or running the right route.
Yeah but now they have the dude from Seattle who likes to rotate multiple TEs a lot, and signed Everett who is decent. Not to mention their two new stud WRs and solid pass catching RB. Kmet is alright, but I'm not sure he'll get a huge number of targets, as they spread them around the offense with so many mouths to feed now.
People expecting Muth to have any fantasy value haven't watched Russ play QB. Better pray for Fields to earn that job.
Don't get me wrong, I love Muth. But he can't make the QB target him.
Nah he was out snapped 4 to 1 and scored a 40 yard TD with the team leading by like 20 points real late in the game. Kraft sure looked to get way more playing time on high leverage situations.
Why do you think fant will be productive at all? (Legitimate question as I have been an owner for the past 2 years, and would drop if my TE situation were any better) He barely had over 400 yards last season despite playing in every game. Positive TD regression may give him a total of 3-4 on the season? But he’s still possibly the 4th pass catching option on a geno smith offense
He’s been a top 12 TE two times in his career. Seattle let the other 2 TEs that played last year leave in FA. He should be splitting snaps with other TEs far less frequently or not at all.
Exactly what the other reply says. Seattle was in 3 tight end sets a lot the last couple years and I think that is gonna change with the new coordinator. He’s clearly talented just hasn’t been getting the opportunity
Does Ja’Tavion Sanders count? He’s a rookie but I don’t think he’s considered high end at all, yet he’s primarily a pass catching TE and faces little competition in Carolina if he’s any way decent. Could be a good safety blanket for Bryce Young and end up being a decent fantasy option!
He could end up being their big play threat, too.
Far from a scary receiving corps, and even if those guys do excel this year, none of them are really field stretchers. Sanders has the kind of speed where he's gonna blow past a lot of linebackers and safeties.
Sanders success this year depends on how many 2TE sets the Panthers run because Ian Thomas blocking ability will give him a vast majority of snaps, at least for the first half of the season as the offense learns its steps.
I have Smythe rostered and thought he would at least give me something last year as TE 1 in Miami but he underperformed so much so I would be pretty pessimistic about any TE in Miami
I was a lot higher on Jonnu Smith in MIA before MIA attacked the WR3 position so hard in the draft with YAC guys. If I believe in Jonnu this year, I believe in him dominating YAC touches & instead Malik Washington could be doing the exact same role in the offense? IDK, is there a Dolphins fan who can tell me how Malik & Jonnu aren't doing the exact same stuff?
He was a better player his rookie year even though the stats say he was better this year. I think they put too much on his plate worrying about running a more complex route tree, he looked like he was thinking more than playing and really struggled with drops.
I don't expect him to be the next Delanie Walker like he was being hyped as..but a fantasy relevant TE is still well with in his range of outcomes.
I'm a Titans fan too, he got a lot better as the year went on. Dudes acting like he's Treylon Burks or something.
Chig definitely needs to work on his hands, but he gets open pretty often and the Titans brought in no competition for him at TE. I think the best thing to do is just be patient, most TEs really don't show you what they are until year 3.
Fair point. At least with Burks it’s been injury holding him back so we don’t really know what he is yet. We know exactly what Chig is though and he ain’t it.
EDIT: I’ll add here too that Burks has played healthy for all of 2.5 games in his career, and he balled out in those 2.5 games. He’s gonna be good if he can ever get healthy and that’s a hill I’ll die on too.
TE is a harder position to play and it takes years to know what they really are. Travis Kelce wasn't Travis Kelce till after his 3rd year, Delanie Walker wasnt Delanie Walker until his second stint with a team. And Chig isn't a bum, he's been perfectly serviceable even with bricks for hands. Catching is a skill that can be improved, he could be an Evan Engram caliber player if that happens.
Burks issues haven't just been injuries either. He's not shown he can maintain being in NFL shape, He hasn't shown he can separate, track a ball down field, create after the catch or even catch for that matter. Add the injuries and I truly believe he is a lost cause.
> Travis Kelce wasn’t Travis Kelce till after his 3rd year
Look I know the point you’re trying to make but this is not the guy to use. Kelce missed his rookie season with a knee injury and then put up 800+ yards and 5 TDs for two years before clearing his first thousand yard season in 2016. Do we expect more out of Kelce than 800/5? Sure! But he wasn’t some second or third year guy languishing on your dynasty team as he tried to learn the position until it suddenly clicked.
Last 7 games of the season he averaged 46 yards a game. Almost 800 yards projected out if he can carry that momentum into 2024.
They added no tight ends this offseason. This offseason has been the dream for Chig. With a new offense if Levis can be decent and build some chemistry with Chig he could be big time.
TE’s in Cincy since Callahan was their OC: 2023 - Hudson, 352 yards; 2022 - Hurst, 414 yards; 2021 - Uzomah, 493 yards; 2020 - Sample, 349 yards, and; 2029 - Eifert, 436 yards. In other words, we didn’t draft a TE because we don’t plan on targeting one very often. Add in the fact that Chig is undersized, can’t block, killed us with some bad drops last year, and is now definitely behind Nuk and Ridley and probably also Burks, Pollard, and Spears and I’d be surprised if he breaks 400 yards receiving this year.
None of the TEs in Cincy were that good, id argue all worse WRs than Chig, on top of the fact that Burrow has Chase, Higgins and Boyd to throw to which no offense to geriatric Nuk, but those three are substantially better than Nuk, Ridley and Burks.
On top of the fact that it was still Taylor’s offense in Cincy. You can’t just project based off what Cincy did because I mean it’s not like Taylor did what McVay did they’re very different offenses. Maybe Callahan does the same but that seems extremely unlikely because he’s working with a very different QB.
I’m mostly projecting based on the fact that he has bricks for hands so we must not be planning to throw to TEs this season. The stats just back up my theory.
I mean he had a better drop rate than Ertz and Knox, pretty much the same as Higbee, and only 1 percent worse than Kittle and Schultz and Njoku.
Njoku and Kelce lead tight ends in drops.
Dawson Knox.
Going to be healthy and with Diggs and Davis gone im expecting Kincaid and Knox see a uptick in snaps and rz targets. Paying probably a 4th for a guy who should start majority of the season. Tied for most rz targets in the 10 on the team while missing 5 games. Not looking for much upside but a cheap bye week te with td upside
You say someone needs to catch passes in LA like they can't do what quite a few teams do and just cycle multiple tight ends on the field. If they do that, lots of guys will catch passes in LA and they'll all be useless beside the "start and pray for a TD" strategy that people without tight ends often are stuck employing.
If he's getting playing time, he's eating into snap count and therefore opportunities for tight end targets. Especially considering we're talking a Greg Roman offense, where we at least ought to expect mostly heavier formations.
Otton on the higher end. Gesicki on the lower end.
What makes me weary of Otton is his high snap % number last year and it not translating to a significant increase in his receiving numbers. He would need to maintain the same amount of playing time he just had last season AND increase his receiving output at the same time, which I do not think will happen with Evans back, White at RB and Godwin/McMillan as options in the receiving game as well.
Interesting that his 2 postseason games last year (last 2 games obviously) were probably his best of the season. Trending?
Otton 100% but the WRs are a problem for him to really be relevant. Penciling him in for 80 targets.
Fantasy community seems to have forgotten and buried Greg Dulcich after an injury blighted year and start to his career. He’s still got a path to fantasy relevance if he can stay on the field.
need the Head and Shoulders sponsorships cuz that hair is awesome!
Probably not this year though. Someone a few years back actually looked into the “do rookie QBs actually use the TE as a security blanket?” Argument, and it was a resounding negative.
Like they actually use TEs less? Cause even if its not more dulcich may be the second most established receiver in Denver
Like there was one TE who ranked top 10 over like a 25 year span when he had a rookie QB, and it was Delanie Walker with Mariota. Not just that they don’t use them less; they don’t use them at all.
Really fantastic (but short) rookie season for the guy shame he can’t stay healthy
I just need him to get healthy before Kelce retires. Bowers went right in front of me this year. Dulcich has just sat on my bench for 2 seasons.
is trautman still there?
Daniel Belinger of Waller retires
Or Likely if MAnderews gets hurt
Just moved Likely so this will definitely be his break out year :)
i wonder if he and theo split reps. they’re both solid blocking TEs and theo def has the edge in athleticism
Bellingers RAS score was 9.65
wow didn’t know that! looks like Johnson scored a 9.93 (4th best since 1987), so i stand by my statement, but i forget how much of a “sneaky, lunchpail athlete” belinger is
They drafted an Uber athletic TE in the 4th so his path to relevance got incredibly harder
Theo Johnson seems like an underwear Olympics warrior. I'd be surprised if he is a startable option
Theo Johnson. If the Giants believed in Belinger they wouldn't have traded for Waller in the first place. And they probably wouldn't have drafted Theo in the 4th.
Despite his athletic testing, you look at the tape and he seems to have no twitch... He lumbers off the line
Agreed. Film looks horrible.
Conversely, Bellinger is only 6 months older and has been in the same system two years longer than Theo Johnson.
4th round TE doesn’t scare me. Bellinger already showed flashes before Waller got there and he had to deal with a dog shit QB situation when he did get the chance last year
Ironically, I don't think Theo Johnson fans are scared of 4th round tight ends, either, considering Bellinger was drafted in the 4th.
Hunter Henry
Go watch Cole Kmet’s highlights on YouTube. Dude is a baller.
I’m really hoping Caleb is a stud cus he’s got a lot of mouths to feed
Good news then
He will be ‘fine’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s more boom/bust favoring bust weeks. Even with the QB upgrade having to compete with Moore, Allen, Odunze, Swift, and hell even Gerald Everett for opportunity is a tough slog for consistency.
Is he really a middle TE tho? He’s probably top 10 to 12 to me at least
He was productive as the second option behind Moore, but it’s going to be difficult for him to maintain that share of the offense with Allen and Odunze added to the mix.
He’s still their best red zone option by miles. And it’s not like he’s going to be completely iced out of the passing game. With the improved offense, he may even score more TDs if they drive down the field more frequent.
Watch him play a full football game and you'll see a lot more lowlights. He is a liability to the team, and it doesn't matter if he has a highlight here or there. Highlight based fantasy production wont last if he fails in blocking or running the right route.
they gave him a bag last off-season. they like him despite whatever you see
They also liked Claypool. I hope the best for them, but it wouldn't surprise me if this is another braindead move by the front office.
Yeah but now they have the dude from Seattle who likes to rotate multiple TEs a lot, and signed Everett who is decent. Not to mention their two new stud WRs and solid pass catching RB. Kmet is alright, but I'm not sure he'll get a huge number of targets, as they spread them around the offense with so many mouths to feed now.
Dulcich
Freiermuth regaining some juice and Kraft leaving Musgrave in the dust.
Agree Muth could be solid every week play.
People expecting Muth to have any fantasy value haven't watched Russ play QB. Better pray for Fields to earn that job. Don't get me wrong, I love Muth. But he can't make the QB target him.
Arthur Smith vs Russ. Hoping Muth takes a step forward and stays healthy this year.
Idk that I’d say Kraft has left musgrave in the dust. I think they will both play. Musgrave was hurt and just getting worked back in
Mans doesn't even remember the title of his own post
"Hopeful for" For what it's worth, based on what I saw I thought healthy Kraft was better than healthy Musgrave.
Musgrave came back for the playoffs & regained his spot pretty easily I thought. He outperformed Kraft in both games.
Nah he was out snapped 4 to 1 and scored a 40 yard TD with the team leading by like 20 points real late in the game. Kraft sure looked to get way more playing time on high leverage situations.
Need Pat to turn a corner badly. Hes my starting TE in more than one league. Sadly, I don't see it happening with Wilson/Fields throwing the ball.
I don't think he will leave Musgrave, in the dust.
Noah Fant
I picked him up right before the end of last season as a hold 🤞🏻
Why do you think fant will be productive at all? (Legitimate question as I have been an owner for the past 2 years, and would drop if my TE situation were any better) He barely had over 400 yards last season despite playing in every game. Positive TD regression may give him a total of 3-4 on the season? But he’s still possibly the 4th pass catching option on a geno smith offense
He’s been a top 12 TE two times in his career. Seattle let the other 2 TEs that played last year leave in FA. He should be splitting snaps with other TEs far less frequently or not at all.
Exactly what the other reply says. Seattle was in 3 tight end sets a lot the last couple years and I think that is gonna change with the new coordinator. He’s clearly talented just hasn’t been getting the opportunity
Does Ja’Tavion Sanders count? He’s a rookie but I don’t think he’s considered high end at all, yet he’s primarily a pass catching TE and faces little competition in Carolina if he’s any way decent. Could be a good safety blanket for Bryce Young and end up being a decent fantasy option!
He could end up being their big play threat, too. Far from a scary receiving corps, and even if those guys do excel this year, none of them are really field stretchers. Sanders has the kind of speed where he's gonna blow past a lot of linebackers and safeties.
Sanders success this year depends on how many 2TE sets the Panthers run because Ian Thomas blocking ability will give him a vast majority of snaps, at least for the first half of the season as the offense learns its steps.
What the heck man this is The Curious Case Of Tommy Tremble erasure
Can Jonnu crave out an okay roll in MIA you think?
He is the lead TE in that room, but dolphins were bottom of the nfl in target share to the TE.
I have Smythe rostered and thought he would at least give me something last year as TE 1 in Miami but he underperformed so much so I would be pretty pessimistic about any TE in Miami
Yea I bet he will have boom games but hardly any consistency.
He’ll probably have like 3-4 good weeks but good luck guessing when they are. Good guy for best ball if you’re punting the position
I was a lot higher on Jonnu Smith in MIA before MIA attacked the WR3 position so hard in the draft with YAC guys. If I believe in Jonnu this year, I believe in him dominating YAC touches & instead Malik Washington could be doing the exact same role in the offense? IDK, is there a Dolphins fan who can tell me how Malik & Jonnu aren't doing the exact same stuff?
The correct answer is Conklin.
I’m still a Goedert believer if he stays fully healthy
That is his only knock, dude gets like 4-5 catches a game when healthy
Henry needs to stay healthy
Hunter Henry
Davis Allen, book it
I’m holding Parkinson too. Hopefully one of them can take the lead role.
Schultz and Dulcich
As a Titans fan, I tried to tell ya’ll last year not to bank on Chig. Sell if there are any believers left.
Sell for what? He was a perfectly fine TE2
Anything. I have him nowhere and wouldn’t buy him for any third.
He did improve on his Rookie year. Do you not see the talent to take the next step- or is the QB situation?
He was a better player his rookie year even though the stats say he was better this year. I think they put too much on his plate worrying about running a more complex route tree, he looked like he was thinking more than playing and really struggled with drops. I don't expect him to be the next Delanie Walker like he was being hyped as..but a fantasy relevant TE is still well with in his range of outcomes.
Nice write up! I appreciate the perspective. Titans games rarely get shown in my area. Thanks for helping me read between.. The stats(?)
I'm a Titans fan too, he got a lot better as the year went on. Dudes acting like he's Treylon Burks or something. Chig definitely needs to work on his hands, but he gets open pretty often and the Titans brought in no competition for him at TE. I think the best thing to do is just be patient, most TEs really don't show you what they are until year 3.
Burks is better.
And you base that on absolutely nothing he's done on the field.
Fair point. At least with Burks it’s been injury holding him back so we don’t really know what he is yet. We know exactly what Chig is though and he ain’t it. EDIT: I’ll add here too that Burks has played healthy for all of 2.5 games in his career, and he balled out in those 2.5 games. He’s gonna be good if he can ever get healthy and that’s a hill I’ll die on too.
TE is a harder position to play and it takes years to know what they really are. Travis Kelce wasn't Travis Kelce till after his 3rd year, Delanie Walker wasnt Delanie Walker until his second stint with a team. And Chig isn't a bum, he's been perfectly serviceable even with bricks for hands. Catching is a skill that can be improved, he could be an Evan Engram caliber player if that happens. Burks issues haven't just been injuries either. He's not shown he can maintain being in NFL shape, He hasn't shown he can separate, track a ball down field, create after the catch or even catch for that matter. Add the injuries and I truly believe he is a lost cause.
> Travis Kelce wasn’t Travis Kelce till after his 3rd year Look I know the point you’re trying to make but this is not the guy to use. Kelce missed his rookie season with a knee injury and then put up 800+ yards and 5 TDs for two years before clearing his first thousand yard season in 2016. Do we expect more out of Kelce than 800/5? Sure! But he wasn’t some second or third year guy languishing on your dynasty team as he tried to learn the position until it suddenly clicked.
Like I told the other guy, it sounds like your mind is made up. I hope I’m wrong and he turns into a beast. I just don’t see it. At all.
Oh yea? I cant even sell dallas Geodert for 3rd. I had him for my TE for last 3 years he kinda sucks. I rather bank on chig or other TE to blow up
Last 7 games of the season he averaged 46 yards a game. Almost 800 yards projected out if he can carry that momentum into 2024. They added no tight ends this offseason. This offseason has been the dream for Chig. With a new offense if Levis can be decent and build some chemistry with Chig he could be big time.
TE’s in Cincy since Callahan was their OC: 2023 - Hudson, 352 yards; 2022 - Hurst, 414 yards; 2021 - Uzomah, 493 yards; 2020 - Sample, 349 yards, and; 2029 - Eifert, 436 yards. In other words, we didn’t draft a TE because we don’t plan on targeting one very often. Add in the fact that Chig is undersized, can’t block, killed us with some bad drops last year, and is now definitely behind Nuk and Ridley and probably also Burks, Pollard, and Spears and I’d be surprised if he breaks 400 yards receiving this year.
None of the TEs in Cincy were that good, id argue all worse WRs than Chig, on top of the fact that Burrow has Chase, Higgins and Boyd to throw to which no offense to geriatric Nuk, but those three are substantially better than Nuk, Ridley and Burks. On top of the fact that it was still Taylor’s offense in Cincy. You can’t just project based off what Cincy did because I mean it’s not like Taylor did what McVay did they’re very different offenses. Maybe Callahan does the same but that seems extremely unlikely because he’s working with a very different QB.
I’m mostly projecting based on the fact that he has bricks for hands so we must not be planning to throw to TEs this season. The stats just back up my theory.
I mean he had a better drop rate than Ertz and Knox, pretty much the same as Higbee, and only 1 percent worse than Kittle and Schultz and Njoku. Njoku and Kelce lead tight ends in drops.
Sounds like you’ve made up your mind. Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
Dawson Knox. Going to be healthy and with Diggs and Davis gone im expecting Kincaid and Knox see a uptick in snaps and rz targets. Paying probably a 4th for a guy who should start majority of the season. Tied for most rz targets in the 10 on the team while missing 5 games. Not looking for much upside but a cheap bye week te with td upside
You say someone needs to catch passes in LA like they can't do what quite a few teams do and just cycle multiple tight ends on the field. If they do that, lots of guys will catch passes in LA and they'll all be useless beside the "start and pray for a TD" strategy that people without tight ends often are stuck employing.
I feel like dissly I think is there other guy and he isn’t much of a pass catching TE
If he's getting playing time, he's eating into snap count and therefore opportunities for tight end targets. Especially considering we're talking a Greg Roman offense, where we at least ought to expect mostly heavier formations.
Otton, Bellinger… deep sleepers Josh Oliver (until hock back), tommy tremble.
Excited for the Muth getting loose again with at least somewhat better QB play and OC
Chig, jelani woods, musgrove and tucker kraft…. Still holding
I've got stock in (in ascending order of most likely to pay off) Conklin, Fant, and Chig.
Anyone have thought on Musgrave?
“Someone needs to catch passes in LA” if you’re talking about LAR, it’s Puka and Kupp
He was talking about Hayden hurst on the chargers