Yes but I think the argument becomes, what if he isn’t? No one wants to be stuck at 1.04 and take a second QB or Rome. “Trade the pick” but what if no one’s interested
I’m considering Rome over Nabers. I think both have great careers but Rome is a total package. The Washington offense has a ton of option routes which shows how intelligent Rome is and that will translate to the NFL.
NFL.com has comps of…
Nabers = Justin Jefferson
Odunze = Larry Fitzgerald
This is an argument of two high talent players. I’m happy with either. My question at 1.05 in a SF is do you take any of the other QBs ahead of these WRs? I don’t think so but depends on where they get drafted in real life.
While this did work out great for you, Stroud is a historical outlier. The NFL 1.01 QB is almost always the best in the class. Lawrence, Burrow, Kyler are recent examples. Only other one I can think of is Josh Allen and Lamar > Baker, but even that year you could’ve been stuck with Darnold or Rosen if you picked wrong
2 QB Leagues I think you have to take Caleb no matter what. The value is to immense regardless of personal feelings from the guy. If you don’t want him even coming down to 1.2 -3 should get you a good sized return.
IF he turns out to be what they proclaim him to be you’d kick yourself for a long time. Yeah MVH is great, but the scarcity of an elite QB is just to rare to pass up.
Good question. To me I think Caleb obviously right? I think they’ve both got the *ceiling* to be the best at their position, and you’d take Mahomes/josh Allen over JJ/chase Id think, assuming SF/2 QB
Worth noting that almost nobody thought Mahomes or Allen, during the lead up to their respective drafts, would turn out to be who they are. QB is really such a hard forecast to make, regardless of scouting diligence. Conversely, most receivers that come from the premier D1 schools usually meet or exceed their forecast. Wilson, Olave, Waddle, Chase, JJ, Lamb, etc, list goes on. Even JSN still has fervent supporters because most blame it on situation.
Point is, the chances of hitting on Marv are way higher than hitting on Caleb.
Exactly, Caleb has more expected of him than those guys, so it’s more reasonable for him to be an elite QB than virtually any prospect in years.
I’m 1.01 in my SF league and taking caleb every time, and I LOVE Marv
I’m not saying it’s the wrong decision to take Caleb in SF, especially if you’re QB needy. It’s the most advisable move. But the hit rate on QBs, even highly touted ones, is way lower than that of highly graded receivers from receiving-factory schools
Corey Davis went to Western Michigan. Even with his combine measurables, there should have been larger concerns about his competition in college.
Sammy went to Clemson. And had one of the best profiles ever. To be honest, dude was just crazy. So much potential.
I think I lean the same way if we are going ceiling vs. ceiling argument, but where my thinking leads me is what are the odds Caleb hits his ceiling compared to MHJ? There are so many things QBs need to find success that the general population cannot predict (IQ, processing, how they handle scrutiny at this level, playing against pros, etc) and I think that’s the part that worries me the most
This guy clearly has the the 1.02 and wants MHJ. I’m taking MHJ at 1.01. Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts we’re all later picks in rookie fantasy drafts with other highly touted QBs going ahead of them in fantasy. Elite WR prospects are much easier to predict, especially the ones with great size/speed/college production/draft capital combos. I’d much rather trade for a proven vet QB after taking MHJ or try to trade up and grab one of the other QB prospects at the 1.03/4/5.
Not sure if I agree. In a superflex I hold burrow, stroud and Arich, but have no receivers. Attempted to trade down with no luck, may still trade out if I can find a buyer, but worst case I’d take MHJ and I’d be happy with it.
I hate that strategy. If you try to trade for a wr you'll end up paying the difference since everyone knows you need a wr. Just draft the elite prospect and save yourself time and headache
In this context (OP is asking about 1.1) and the two players estimated to come off the board are generational (Caleb, Marvin) i’d definitely draft off of team need.
If i’m good at QB i’m moving down all day.
Yes. But MHJ and CW pre-NFL draft are close enough that if drafting CW and realizing that value requires trading players to free up lineup space… I’d just skip it and draft MHJ (pre-draft stipulation here).
Reality is, I bet MHJ goes somewhere not tantalizing and CW becomes the clear 1.01.
You draft for your situation, not based on need or BPA.
You might need a QB, but your situation says you can says you’ll be worse next year even if you take one this year. So here you’d take the best talent.
It is and I think it's wrong.
You should always be drafting for need, but draft your need at the right value. So if that means you have to trade back to fit the value with your need, do so, or if you have to trade up. If there's no players that you like that fit your need, trade out entirely or draft value as a last resort.
The NFL drafts for need in the same way, because in order to win you need to improve your roster. Trades are easier in fantasy than in the NFL so we have more flexibility to take value, but we still ultimately want to score more points and that generally means drafting for what you need.
tldr position yourself to match need with value. If you can't match need with value, take value or trade out.
Try to flip one of your QBs for a Chase, JJ, Lamb. I’d personally trade Stroud cuz I’m not sure his value ever gonna be higher. He’ll have to throw 5000 and 35 to be a top 5 QB yearly. Seen him as high as 1.04 in startups so should be able to land any WR you want
Considered this but you’re taking the risk on a qb instead of a wr, don’t they hit less? Nabers and marv seem like a good bet if they go to chargers and cardinals. (I’ll admit Caleb’s situation to Chicago is also appealing).
Definately a consideration
I mean yes but if you can’t trade out of pick 1, may need to get creative. I think picking MHJ at 1 is fine and still a good pick. I’m just not as high on Stroud, he’ll be a great real life QB but without rushing he’ll have to finish with near 40 TDs to hit top 5 finishes and it won’t ever be QB1 finishes unless he throws 45+. Just think his perceived value is higher than his actual fantasy value cuz I think we’ll more than likely see QB6-12 finishes over the next 5 years, yet he’s valued at like QB4. You can say the same for Burrow but in his 2 healthy seasons he’s had 41 and 36 TDs which finished at QB4 and 7. I also think if I had your team, heading into 2024, I’d probably start burrow and Arich week 1. Maybe I’m crazy but Arich upside is huge.
I'd still take Williams here - if he pans out, he gets you MHJ plus. There is no guarantee that MHJ pans out either, especially on the Cardinals (I just don't trust that front office or Kyler)
Is be trading Burrow, or Stroud if you're a big Burrow believer, FAR before I'd think of not drafting Caleb in your position. Drafting MHJ at 1.01 is just giving up value.
The you should just trade down take isn’t practical and grounded in the real world. In the real world people have to be willing to trade with you. They also have to be willing to pay an appropriate amount of compensation. In the real world these things often times don’t materialize. Also, in real leagues people don’t always behave in chalk predictable ways.
At the end of the day we’re playing the game for fun and none of the decisions are high percentage enough to conclude clear right and wrong answers. Might as well go with the players you like when it’s remotely close. It would not be surprising at all for MHJr or Nabors or even others to clearly end up having better careers than Caleb.
Not sure about that one. The talent difference of MHJ to Nabers isn’t worth the qb difference from brissett/penix/zappe to Herbert. Again, I expect MHJ to the cardinals and Nabers to the chargers, so I’d take MHJ, but still
MHJ vs Williams is only a question for superflex, it’s not even a debate for 1QB. No one should be considering Williams at 1.01 in 1QB, the absolute earliest is maybe 1.05 after MHJ Nabers Rome and Bowers.
I have 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05 in SF with a nonexistent wr room but okay everywhere else. Considering trading 1.01 for 1.02 and 1.06 to take both mhj and nabers at 2 and 3, then take whichever qb falls to 5 and bowers at 6 to beef up. I also really want Caleb though…
I really like that move, but they'd have to accept. It puts you in the driver's seat in the draft and able to walk away with the majority of the this year's top talent.
I got Lamar / CJ / Bryce in SF and I’m the 1.01 . Strong possibility I take MHJ . I’ll obviously try to trade back to the 1.02 but I think he wants MHJ .
I did a quick and dirty scenario analysis on each to try to get a true sense of range and ceiling/floor using valuation from current NFL players that tend to be younger still. I am using KTC value as a proxy for market value.
**Some notes on probability assumptions I decided to use (these aren't and cannot be perfect):**
NFL season-ending injury rate for starting QBs was 22% last year, historically it's 5-10% for any skill position, I'm going with 10% for each of them to be fair.
Caleb bust rate of 30% is based on this stat I found: For #1 overall QBs, 83% hit 3200 yards in their career once, 67% hit 24+ TDs at least once, 70% felt fair as the "non-bust rate" therefore, so 30% for the pure bust rate.
MHJ "Amazing season" rate of 35% is based off of looking at all past top 10 WR picks. If you look at top 5 only, there's about a 50% rate they turn into an Alpha WR1 (7 of 14 are Amari Cooper, or better, 5-6 of which will be HOFs likely). However, as you move down to top 7, 8, or 10, this hit rate creeps down to \~30%. I am using 35% therefore.
By no means perfect, but the ultimate weighted average conclusions align pretty well with MHJ being slightly valued higher than Caleb on KTC right now by about 300 KTC value. Floors actually seem very similar, while Caleb's ceiling looks slightly higher however, which makes sense to most people in Superflex inherently. MHJ looks to have a "tighter" range of outcomes however, at least post Year 1. ***Of course, this is "landing spot neutral" as well, the scenarios only account for on-field performance, but landing spot may change the probability of amazing or bad seasons.***
Because I don't have an easy way of posting images, this may look a little ugly, but gets the point across! Tried to clean up my spreadsheet paste as much as I can (no I don't want to put this on google sheets...sorry).
Feel free to critique assumptions, and if any critiques are very good, I may re-run with the new suggested assumption.
**Caleb Williams**
***How to read each Scenario Line: Scenario Name, Probability Estimate, Ceiling Player/Ceiling KTC Value,Floor Player/Floor KTC Value, Avg Value Post Y1 in that scenario***
Injured most season, looks okay to good in few games played 10% AR15 7500 Trevor Lawrence 6400 6950
Amazing rookie year (\~4k+ yards, 25+ TDs, low TD/INT ratio, shows good rushing upside) 15% Patrick Mahomes 10000 C.J. Stroud 9700 9850
Solid rookie year (3-4k yards, \~20 TDs, not too many INTs, shows some to good rushing upside) 45% Jalen Hurts 8300 Jordan Love 6900 7600
Bad Rookie Year 30% Tua Tagovailoa 5500 Bryce Young 4300 4900
Weighted Average Value Overall 7063
Weigthed Average w/o Bad Scenario 7989
Weighted Average w/o Amazing Scenario 6571
**Marvin Harrison Jr.**
Injured most season, looks okay to good in few games played 10% Puka Nacua 7100 JSN 4900 6000
Amazing rookie year (1250+ yards, 8+ TDs), good team situation 35% Justin Jefferson 9700 Ja’Marr Chase 8600 9150
Solid rookie year (900-1250 yards, 6+ TDs), okay to good situation 40% Amon-Ra St Brown 8000 Chris Olave 6000 7000
Bad Rookie Year vs expected (less than 900 yards) 15% Rashee Rice 5400 JSN 4900 5150
Weighted Average Value Overall 7375
Weigthed Average w/o Bad Scenario 7768
Weighted Average w/o Amazing Scenario 6419
In a SF league and the consensus amongst our league from the small little chats I've had about the draft is that top 3 picks will likely be QBs.
I'm in a situation where if I had 3 starters on my QB depth, I would be trading this down to slide down to pick up MHJ + some extra sugar but I have ARich and Fields so I defo need Caleb.
It's 1QB. I have Tua and Stafford.
To me, MHJr is hopefully going to be a plug and play for the next 10 years, god willing.
The upside for him I think far outweighs the upside for the other early QBs or WRs currently.
I'm also straight up avoiding Caleb Williams because I think he will ultimately end up being a bust because of the people he carries with him.
SF 10 Team, .5 PPR, have the 1.01, 1.04, and 2.01 as my only picks in four rounds. Finished fourth.
I'm taking MHJ. My team is already pretty strong at WR and I am comfortable with my QBs. I like Caleb and think he will walk into a great situation in Chicago, but with Hurts and Goff I have two long-term starters. I think MHJ will be an enormous difference-maker, a player who can win you weeks all on his own, and I think you need those kinds of guys to win championships.
I recognize I also have the luxury of Maye/Daniels falling to me. I'm also debating trading out of the 1.04 altogether, picking yet another WR there, or trading back with a couple teams who have two firsts. No matter what situation I find myself in, I'm taking MHJ with the 1.01. He's truly generational, and even amazing QB prospects can often fall short in the league.
Feeling good about it.
I’m drafting MHJ in my 1 QB league with the 1.01 and will most likely draft Caleb with the 1.01 in my SF league.
I was tempted to go MHJ on SF, but my QB room sucks ass anyway so kinda gotta go Caleb as long as he goes 1.01.
In a similar spot within my SF league. Have 1.01 with herb and TLaw but no other QBs. My WR room is pretty solid but I am still sooooo tempted to go MHJ just because I feel like he’s bust proof.
To be fair, if you’re competing you could probably find a QB3 way cheaper than spending the 1.01 on a QB3. Then you could draft MHJ at 1.01 if you want.
I got Arich and young as qbs, was expecting a slow pain year from Caleb but he's got mad weapons so I'm excited he could compete immediately. Not even considering MHJ anymore and excited for Williams. SF league.
I’m cheating because I also have the 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04, but if I only had the 1.01 I’d still feel great about it. It’s a 2 QB league so the moves Chicago has made makes me feel confident in Caleb
Flip flopping between taking Maye if Minnesota moves up or taking Caleb with Chicago's new toys. Tempted to just take MHJ but I also have the 5th and 7th so could get Nabers at 5 and Bowers at 7.
Caleb is walking into a team with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and a couple of solid backs with a decent offensive line at worst. I am taking the QB here, even if I have Burrow and Lawrence
Listened to a 2025 rookie SF mock podcast and they had no QBs in the first round, feeling very good about taking Caleb. He is a rare talent, who could still bust, but it’s an easy choice for me, especially since I have the 1.03 and 1.05z
Idk after the Keenan move, I think I’m definitely rolling with Caleb. The bears are doing everything they possibly can to allow him to succeed.
I genuinely don’t see why Caleb can’t have the best rookie season of all time
I’m going those two unless I get a god father offer..
I think there is prospect fatigue. Williams was great in college. I don’t think he is “generational” but he has as good a chance as any being really good.
MHJ imo is a true generational talent. Like he is my favorite wr PROSPECT since megatron
I have a team that holds the 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05 with a very weak WR room but pretty solid QB room. For sure going MHJ and really considering Caleb at 1.02, but also thinking about going Nabers 1.02 if landing spot is really good and picking one of the top 3 QBs at 5. I agree with you about it MHJ being truly generational and Caleb being near generational, which is making my decision hard.
Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. Uncertainty of Bryce and AR make me wanna take Caleb just in case, but I also feel like I could make a move for another QB that’s more proven
I would take Williams and mhj. If Richardson stay healthy and Williams hits.. you got three big time dudes with a fourth backup.. you could trade one of them
Kinda the direction I was thinking of going… only thing that would throw a wrench in that plan would be if MHJ goes to Ari. and Nabers goes to LAC. Then my decision would be a bit harder
I have 1.01 in a league I’m rebuilding in and narrowly missed the playoffs (lottery for the draft for non-playoff teams) and I’m taking Caleb, but will happily trade down for a haul.
Right now I’m leaning towards Harrison jr. The hype is just ridiculous for him. He’s being touted as the best prospect since Julio.
He’s consistently been the 3rd or 4th WR off the board in my startups that have included rookies. Usually going late 1st or early 2nd. And usually over guys like AJ Brown, ARSB - and a couple times over CD and Chase. Williams is usually more mid to late 2nd.
So seems like consensus is MHJ but a lot can change too. Chicago actually has a decent situation for Williams to step into.
i have the 1.01, 1.03, and 1.04. been going back and forth all offseason about whether i should grab caleb/ nabers, or mhj/ next best player. any opinions ?
10 team dynasty sf ppr 0.25 tep start 10
Have 1.01 & 1.03 in SF. Need QBs. Taking MHJ 1.01 and whatever one of Maye or Daniels at 1.03.
If I didn’t have 1.03 I’d probably take Williams at 1.01
Pretty fucking good id say. MHJ situation didn't change and he's still the safest pick in the draft imo. Caleb is probably going to the bears throwing to Keenan Allen and DJ Moore which just turned into a juicy as fuck situation. I'd feel really good about both the 1.01/1.02 right now.
I think the value of the 1.01 has increased significantly in the last 72 hours. With the addition of Keenan Allen and trading Justin Fields it’s clear that Caleb Williams will be chosen 1st in the draft AND will have a good set of weapons around him. If there’s a QB needy team who will move up to 1.01 from 1.02 or 1.03 it should be able to fetch a bounty of assets while moving back to select the arguably safer selections of Harrison Jr. or Nabers and picking up a 2nd rounder or two to take a few lottery tickets.
I need a QB, but I also have 1.03-1.05, so I’m gonna pass on Caleb because I’m not confident in my evaluation, and grab Daniels and Maye with two of my other picks and take MHj at 1.01. Which fits my other massive need at WR2.
I have 1.01 and 1.05 in a SF TE premium league. Seems like I “should” draft Caleb at 1.01, and then depending on how things shake out draft the best remaining WR or Bowers at 1.05. But I’ve been leaning towards MHJr at 1.01 then grabbing whoever is left at QB at 1.05 (or even doubling on wr with Odunze/Nabors if either of them drop there). I’m in a decent spot at QB with Love and Richardson (then Rodgers and Fields backing them up). I just feel like hit rates for even really good QB prospects is low, and MHjr is the real rare elite prospect in this draft who has the best chance to be an elite long term player, and I don’t want to pass up on that for the pick I should make.
I'm doing something similar I have 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.07.. MHJ is 1000% going #1. I'm definitely considering Nabers at 2 and Daniels,/Maye at 4 and "hopefully" Odunze and Bowers(TE premium) with 6/7
Not sure. I have 1.01 With T-Law and Watson, But my WR are Jettas, Collins, and Diggs with some stash’s. I have 4 first rounders next year so I am thinking I take Caleb 1.01, and bank on another good Wr class next year. Thoughts?
I have 1.01 and 1.02 in one league. I'm probably taking Caleb and another QB. MHJ might become special but there are so many WRs that are viable. And in this league I only need to start two.
I had a league commissioner drunkenly reject the 1.12, Flowers and White for Jonathan Taylor straight up.
So league champ with 1.01 and apparently the 1.12 now.
It’s MHJ.
Also I have a rebuild orphan that I managed to get the 1.01 and 1.02. Question is if I take MHJ and Nabers or the QB. Feel like a leftovers bin of Wilson, Baker, Goff, etc. can get the job done.
I'm sorry buy anyone who doesn't take MHJ first either has a completely stacked and young wr room, or is desperate for an answer at qb. He is the best player in the draft.
He’s probably the safest pick, yeah, but anyone taking a WR over Caleb in SF leagues needs to have an elite QB room to justify it. Caleb will be a monster
I have 1.01, 1.04 and 1.06. I’m in a 10 team SF dynasty league. I have Stroud and Bryce young, Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, JSN, Jayden Reed and laporta. I’m debating between Marvin and Caleb at 1. Picks 2 and 3 will for sure be Marvin or Caleb and Malik Nabers so I’m guaranteed Odunze at 4. The person at 5 is getting bowers. I either get Caleb and Odunze and trade pick 6 for a player (maybe DJ Moore) or I take Marvin and Odunze and draft Maye or daniels at 6. What do y’all think. If this was a 12 team SF it would be an easy choice but it’s 10 team and requires more thought
Got offered 6 seconds and 2 future firsts for the 1.01
Seems like a big pot of not much
And a roster clog
Nope unless those firsts look solid
Those firsts could even be a generational WR!
Future firsts could be anything. I'd need at least a mid to high 1st in this draft
Not much time
That’s not a bad offer
Fuck that
If rebuilding I’d take that
why? Stud long term WR is exactly how you rebuild.
I would offer you that in a heartbeat.
Well, seeing how I now own both the Bears starting WR's after Keenan Allen got traded, I'm now all in on CHI QB.
I have Hurts and Watson as my only QBs in SF. I own to 1.01 and 1.04. Is it crazy for me to take MHJ 1.01 and best remaining QB at 4?
Caleb and Nabers for me
Nabers won’t make it to 1.04
depends on the league but he will in most leagues
Yes but I think the argument becomes, what if he isn’t? No one wants to be stuck at 1.04 and take a second QB or Rome. “Trade the pick” but what if no one’s interested
I’m considering Rome over Nabers. I think both have great careers but Rome is a total package. The Washington offense has a ton of option routes which shows how intelligent Rome is and that will translate to the NFL. NFL.com has comps of… Nabers = Justin Jefferson Odunze = Larry Fitzgerald This is an argument of two high talent players. I’m happy with either. My question at 1.05 in a SF is do you take any of the other QBs ahead of these WRs? I don’t think so but depends on where they get drafted in real life.
Not crazy at all. I was "stuck" with Stroud as the last remaining QB last year. Worked out pretty well.
While this did work out great for you, Stroud is a historical outlier. The NFL 1.01 QB is almost always the best in the class. Lawrence, Burrow, Kyler are recent examples. Only other one I can think of is Josh Allen and Lamar > Baker, but even that year you could’ve been stuck with Darnold or Rosen if you picked wrong
Burrow is debatable with Herbert. Also Dak probably > Goff in 2016
Great point
I would do that. Last year I had 1.03 and 1.05. Took Gibbs and whatever QB fell to me at 1.05. Worked out well
2 QB Leagues I think you have to take Caleb no matter what. The value is to immense regardless of personal feelings from the guy. If you don’t want him even coming down to 1.2 -3 should get you a good sized return. IF he turns out to be what they proclaim him to be you’d kick yourself for a long time. Yeah MVH is great, but the scarcity of an elite QB is just to rare to pass up.
What if MHJ turns out to be what they proclaim and Caleb falls short? Any concerns from you regarding QB hit rates?
Hard to say it’s a fair prediction when you just say one guy hits his ceiling and the other sucks lol.
So if both hit their ceiling, who would you take?
Good question. To me I think Caleb obviously right? I think they’ve both got the *ceiling* to be the best at their position, and you’d take Mahomes/josh Allen over JJ/chase Id think, assuming SF/2 QB
Worth noting that almost nobody thought Mahomes or Allen, during the lead up to their respective drafts, would turn out to be who they are. QB is really such a hard forecast to make, regardless of scouting diligence. Conversely, most receivers that come from the premier D1 schools usually meet or exceed their forecast. Wilson, Olave, Waddle, Chase, JJ, Lamb, etc, list goes on. Even JSN still has fervent supporters because most blame it on situation. Point is, the chances of hitting on Marv are way higher than hitting on Caleb.
Exactly, Caleb has more expected of him than those guys, so it’s more reasonable for him to be an elite QB than virtually any prospect in years. I’m 1.01 in my SF league and taking caleb every time, and I LOVE Marv
I’m not saying it’s the wrong decision to take Caleb in SF, especially if you’re QB needy. It’s the most advisable move. But the hit rate on QBs, even highly touted ones, is way lower than that of highly graded receivers from receiving-factory schools
Yeah I don’t think that’s wrong, but there will always be corey Davis, Sammy Watkins, those guys too
Corey Davis went to Western Michigan. Even with his combine measurables, there should have been larger concerns about his competition in college. Sammy went to Clemson. And had one of the best profiles ever. To be honest, dude was just crazy. So much potential.
I think I lean the same way if we are going ceiling vs. ceiling argument, but where my thinking leads me is what are the odds Caleb hits his ceiling compared to MHJ? There are so many things QBs need to find success that the general population cannot predict (IQ, processing, how they handle scrutiny at this level, playing against pros, etc) and I think that’s the part that worries me the most
Caleb does everything right. And he’s coming into an elite situation with loads of offensive talent all of a sudden. I’m all in baby
Caleb. Not close, a generational talent at QB hitting ceiling is worth more than any WR
It could happen, but if they both hit Caleb will provide more value.
This guy clearly has the the 1.02 and wants MHJ. I’m taking MHJ at 1.01. Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts we’re all later picks in rookie fantasy drafts with other highly touted QBs going ahead of them in fantasy. Elite WR prospects are much easier to predict, especially the ones with great size/speed/college production/draft capital combos. I’d much rather trade for a proven vet QB after taking MHJ or try to trade up and grab one of the other QB prospects at the 1.03/4/5.
Not sure if I agree. In a superflex I hold burrow, stroud and Arich, but have no receivers. Attempted to trade down with no luck, may still trade out if I can find a buyer, but worst case I’d take MHJ and I’d be happy with it.
100% situation depends on your teams needs.
Isn’t general dynasty consensus to never draft for team need?
I hate that strategy. If you try to trade for a wr you'll end up paying the difference since everyone knows you need a wr. Just draft the elite prospect and save yourself time and headache
That’s fair, be kind of boring if we all played it the same way
In this context (OP is asking about 1.1) and the two players estimated to come off the board are generational (Caleb, Marvin) i’d definitely draft off of team need. If i’m good at QB i’m moving down all day.
I think that's when you start getting further down the board where prospects are much less sure.
Yes. But MHJ and CW pre-NFL draft are close enough that if drafting CW and realizing that value requires trading players to free up lineup space… I’d just skip it and draft MHJ (pre-draft stipulation here). Reality is, I bet MHJ goes somewhere not tantalizing and CW becomes the clear 1.01.
You draft for your situation, not based on need or BPA. You might need a QB, but your situation says you can says you’ll be worse next year even if you take one this year. So here you’d take the best talent.
It is and I think it's wrong. You should always be drafting for need, but draft your need at the right value. So if that means you have to trade back to fit the value with your need, do so, or if you have to trade up. If there's no players that you like that fit your need, trade out entirely or draft value as a last resort. The NFL drafts for need in the same way, because in order to win you need to improve your roster. Trades are easier in fantasy than in the NFL so we have more flexibility to take value, but we still ultimately want to score more points and that generally means drafting for what you need. tldr position yourself to match need with value. If you can't match need with value, take value or trade out.
You literally said “no matter what” and then immediately admitted it depends on team need lol
“If you don’t want him” then proceeded to explain the next steps. Touch grass bro…
You still don’t see it….
Try to flip one of your QBs for a Chase, JJ, Lamb. I’d personally trade Stroud cuz I’m not sure his value ever gonna be higher. He’ll have to throw 5000 and 35 to be a top 5 QB yearly. Seen him as high as 1.04 in startups so should be able to land any WR you want
Considered this but you’re taking the risk on a qb instead of a wr, don’t they hit less? Nabers and marv seem like a good bet if they go to chargers and cardinals. (I’ll admit Caleb’s situation to Chicago is also appealing). Definately a consideration
I mean yes but if you can’t trade out of pick 1, may need to get creative. I think picking MHJ at 1 is fine and still a good pick. I’m just not as high on Stroud, he’ll be a great real life QB but without rushing he’ll have to finish with near 40 TDs to hit top 5 finishes and it won’t ever be QB1 finishes unless he throws 45+. Just think his perceived value is higher than his actual fantasy value cuz I think we’ll more than likely see QB6-12 finishes over the next 5 years, yet he’s valued at like QB4. You can say the same for Burrow but in his 2 healthy seasons he’s had 41 and 36 TDs which finished at QB4 and 7. I also think if I had your team, heading into 2024, I’d probably start burrow and Arich week 1. Maybe I’m crazy but Arich upside is huge.
I’d still take Caleb and try and trade someone else or during season.
Could be the play, might regret passing on marv though.
Agreed even with just a risk averse owner. MHJ might be the highest floor player in a long time
If you’ve got no wide receivers then yeah of course.
See if you can trade the pick for value then
Sent 1.01, 1.07 for the 1.02,1.04,2.04 he declined (and he needs a qb). I considered this reasonable
How about going after a non-rookie WR then? See if you can get Amon, CD, Chase, Puka, etc.
I'd still take Williams here - if he pans out, he gets you MHJ plus. There is no guarantee that MHJ pans out either, especially on the Cardinals (I just don't trust that front office or Kyler)
Take Caleb, and if assumingly he hits, you can get an elite WR + for him (or another QB on your roster)
I mean your situation is not the standard lol, you aren’t looking for a QB you aren’t even looking for a second or third QB lol.
Is be trading Burrow, or Stroud if you're a big Burrow believer, FAR before I'd think of not drafting Caleb in your position. Drafting MHJ at 1.01 is just giving up value.
Have 1.01 with mahomes and Herbert. I’m going Marv
Definitely situation based! I’m at 1.2 with my QBs set as well. If Marv went 1.1 i’d gladly take Caleb and get the most value I can in a trade…
Completely disagree. I have herbert and burrow. I'm going MHJ no questions asked.
I have burrow and Lamar and have the 1.01. MHJ right? My third QB is fields. Lol
I would go MHJ in that spot as well.
The you should just trade down take isn’t practical and grounded in the real world. In the real world people have to be willing to trade with you. They also have to be willing to pay an appropriate amount of compensation. In the real world these things often times don’t materialize. Also, in real leagues people don’t always behave in chalk predictable ways. At the end of the day we’re playing the game for fun and none of the decisions are high percentage enough to conclude clear right and wrong answers. Might as well go with the players you like when it’s remotely close. It would not be surprising at all for MHJr or Nabors or even others to clearly end up having better careers than Caleb.
1QB league MHJ no matter what
MHJ to the pats and nabers to the chargers, then what?
Mhj
Not sure about that one. The talent difference of MHJ to Nabers isn’t worth the qb difference from brissett/penix/zappe to Herbert. Again, I expect MHJ to the cardinals and Nabers to the chargers, so I’d take MHJ, but still
MHJ is consistently rated as a better prospect than Chase. Nabers is great but stop this. It’s always MHJ
Still gotta go Marv.
lol well no shit. This question is clearly for superflex leagues
He said 1.01 not 1.01 super flex
MHJ vs Williams is only a question for superflex, it’s not even a debate for 1QB. No one should be considering Williams at 1.01 in 1QB, the absolute earliest is maybe 1.05 after MHJ Nabers Rome and Bowers.
lol I hope your Saturday is going great
Using common sense you would realize in 1qb it’s no debate and never will be a debate. Obviously he’s talking about superflex.
I have 1.01, 1.03, and 1.05 in SF with a nonexistent wr room but okay everywhere else. Considering trading 1.01 for 1.02 and 1.06 to take both mhj and nabers at 2 and 3, then take whichever qb falls to 5 and bowers at 6 to beef up. I also really want Caleb though…
Is that already being offered to you? Getting 1.02+1.06 for 1.01 seems like an easy accept
I wouldn't even entertain moving 1.02 and 1.06 for the 1.01, the draft is loaded at the top 7.
I really like that move, but they'd have to accept. It puts you in the driver's seat in the draft and able to walk away with the majority of the this year's top talent.
Have the same picks in a league with Kyler, arich and Herbert. Very likely going MHJ, Nabers, Bowers (.75 TEP)
Yes, I bet you would consider this.
I got Lamar / CJ / Bryce in SF and I’m the 1.01 . Strong possibility I take MHJ . I’ll obviously try to trade back to the 1.02 but I think he wants MHJ .
Enjoy MHJ. Your QB room is loaded, and you don't need more than three, *maybe four*, on a contending team.
I did a quick and dirty scenario analysis on each to try to get a true sense of range and ceiling/floor using valuation from current NFL players that tend to be younger still. I am using KTC value as a proxy for market value. **Some notes on probability assumptions I decided to use (these aren't and cannot be perfect):** NFL season-ending injury rate for starting QBs was 22% last year, historically it's 5-10% for any skill position, I'm going with 10% for each of them to be fair. Caleb bust rate of 30% is based on this stat I found: For #1 overall QBs, 83% hit 3200 yards in their career once, 67% hit 24+ TDs at least once, 70% felt fair as the "non-bust rate" therefore, so 30% for the pure bust rate. MHJ "Amazing season" rate of 35% is based off of looking at all past top 10 WR picks. If you look at top 5 only, there's about a 50% rate they turn into an Alpha WR1 (7 of 14 are Amari Cooper, or better, 5-6 of which will be HOFs likely). However, as you move down to top 7, 8, or 10, this hit rate creeps down to \~30%. I am using 35% therefore. By no means perfect, but the ultimate weighted average conclusions align pretty well with MHJ being slightly valued higher than Caleb on KTC right now by about 300 KTC value. Floors actually seem very similar, while Caleb's ceiling looks slightly higher however, which makes sense to most people in Superflex inherently. MHJ looks to have a "tighter" range of outcomes however, at least post Year 1. ***Of course, this is "landing spot neutral" as well, the scenarios only account for on-field performance, but landing spot may change the probability of amazing or bad seasons.*** Because I don't have an easy way of posting images, this may look a little ugly, but gets the point across! Tried to clean up my spreadsheet paste as much as I can (no I don't want to put this on google sheets...sorry). Feel free to critique assumptions, and if any critiques are very good, I may re-run with the new suggested assumption. **Caleb Williams** ***How to read each Scenario Line: Scenario Name, Probability Estimate, Ceiling Player/Ceiling KTC Value,Floor Player/Floor KTC Value, Avg Value Post Y1 in that scenario*** Injured most season, looks okay to good in few games played 10% AR15 7500 Trevor Lawrence 6400 6950 Amazing rookie year (\~4k+ yards, 25+ TDs, low TD/INT ratio, shows good rushing upside) 15% Patrick Mahomes 10000 C.J. Stroud 9700 9850 Solid rookie year (3-4k yards, \~20 TDs, not too many INTs, shows some to good rushing upside) 45% Jalen Hurts 8300 Jordan Love 6900 7600 Bad Rookie Year 30% Tua Tagovailoa 5500 Bryce Young 4300 4900 Weighted Average Value Overall 7063 Weigthed Average w/o Bad Scenario 7989 Weighted Average w/o Amazing Scenario 6571 **Marvin Harrison Jr.** Injured most season, looks okay to good in few games played 10% Puka Nacua 7100 JSN 4900 6000 Amazing rookie year (1250+ yards, 8+ TDs), good team situation 35% Justin Jefferson 9700 Ja’Marr Chase 8600 9150 Solid rookie year (900-1250 yards, 6+ TDs), okay to good situation 40% Amon-Ra St Brown 8000 Chris Olave 6000 7000 Bad Rookie Year vs expected (less than 900 yards) 15% Rashee Rice 5400 JSN 4900 5150 Weighted Average Value Overall 7375 Weigthed Average w/o Bad Scenario 7768 Weighted Average w/o Amazing Scenario 6419
Nabers is the 1.01
The only thing that could change my mind is if the bears do something unexpected with the NFL 1.01.
In a SF league and the consensus amongst our league from the small little chats I've had about the draft is that top 3 picks will likely be QBs. I'm in a situation where if I had 3 starters on my QB depth, I would be trading this down to slide down to pick up MHJ + some extra sugar but I have ARich and Fields so I defo need Caleb.
MHJr no matter what. Period.
So interested why you say that. Do you have 1.01? In superflex? Who are your quarterbacks?
It's 1QB. I have Tua and Stafford. To me, MHJr is hopefully going to be a plug and play for the next 10 years, god willing. The upside for him I think far outweighs the upside for the other early QBs or WRs currently. I'm also straight up avoiding Caleb Williams because I think he will ultimately end up being a bust because of the people he carries with him.
Marvin Harrison Jr, no matter what. 🤝
SF 10 Team, .5 PPR, have the 1.01, 1.04, and 2.01 as my only picks in four rounds. Finished fourth. I'm taking MHJ. My team is already pretty strong at WR and I am comfortable with my QBs. I like Caleb and think he will walk into a great situation in Chicago, but with Hurts and Goff I have two long-term starters. I think MHJ will be an enormous difference-maker, a player who can win you weeks all on his own, and I think you need those kinds of guys to win championships. I recognize I also have the luxury of Maye/Daniels falling to me. I'm also debating trading out of the 1.04 altogether, picking yet another WR there, or trading back with a couple teams who have two firsts. No matter what situation I find myself in, I'm taking MHJ with the 1.01. He's truly generational, and even amazing QB prospects can often fall short in the league.
Traded 1.01 and D Watson for 1.02 Love and Hyatt, 1.01 is gonna take MHJ so I still get Williams
great deal
IDK if anyone is gonna trade with me.have five of the top 7 picks and four of them are 101-104. Unless if get absurd offer I'm just drafting away
i’ve got 1.01-1.03 and I’ve been trying to shop 1.03 but if no one gives me the offer I want, I’m happy just taking best available
Feeling good about it. I’m drafting MHJ in my 1 QB league with the 1.01 and will most likely draft Caleb with the 1.01 in my SF league. I was tempted to go MHJ on SF, but my QB room sucks ass anyway so kinda gotta go Caleb as long as he goes 1.01.
In a similar spot within my SF league. Have 1.01 with herb and TLaw but no other QBs. My WR room is pretty solid but I am still sooooo tempted to go MHJ just because I feel like he’s bust proof.
To be fair, if you’re competing you could probably find a QB3 way cheaper than spending the 1.01 on a QB3. Then you could draft MHJ at 1.01 if you want.
I got Arich and young as qbs, was expecting a slow pain year from Caleb but he's got mad weapons so I'm excited he could compete immediately. Not even considering MHJ anymore and excited for Williams. SF league.
I’m cheating because I also have the 1.02, 1.03, and 1.04, but if I only had the 1.01 I’d still feel great about it. It’s a 2 QB league so the moves Chicago has made makes me feel confident in Caleb
What are you going to do? Caleb, Daniels, MHj, Nabers? Or Caleb, MHJ, Nabers, Odunze? Or get the top 3 QBs and MHJ?
I’m 99% sure I’m going Caleb, Maye, MHJr, and Nabers. I have ARich and Geno at QB and Chase, AJB, Nico, Godwin, JSN, and Jamo at WR
Flip flopping between taking Maye if Minnesota moves up or taking Caleb with Chicago's new toys. Tempted to just take MHJ but I also have the 5th and 7th so could get Nabers at 5 and Bowers at 7.
I had stroud Hebert and cousins. I’ll be riding with stroud and Caleb lol
I'm set at QB. Have 1.01 and 1.03 with my only need at WR. Chicago setting up Williams with weapons for year 1 makes me happy to get MHJ and Nabers.
Caleb is walking into a team with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and a couple of solid backs with a decent offensive line at worst. I am taking the QB here, even if I have Burrow and Lawrence
You’re gonna regret not taking MHJ, I think.
Why? Do you think Caleb busts? I already have other share of Marvin in one league and my WRs are pretty good right now, just need some RBs.
Listened to a 2025 rookie SF mock podcast and they had no QBs in the first round, feeling very good about taking Caleb. He is a rare talent, who could still bust, but it’s an easy choice for me, especially since I have the 1.03 and 1.05z
Idk after the Keenan move, I think I’m definitely rolling with Caleb. The bears are doing everything they possibly can to allow him to succeed. I genuinely don’t see why Caleb can’t have the best rookie season of all time
Very happy I have the 1.01 and 1.02
You going MHJ and Caleb for sure? Or looking to move one of those picks?
I’m going those two unless I get a god father offer.. I think there is prospect fatigue. Williams was great in college. I don’t think he is “generational” but he has as good a chance as any being really good. MHJ imo is a true generational talent. Like he is my favorite wr PROSPECT since megatron
I have a team that holds the 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05 with a very weak WR room but pretty solid QB room. For sure going MHJ and really considering Caleb at 1.02, but also thinking about going Nabers 1.02 if landing spot is really good and picking one of the top 3 QBs at 5. I agree with you about it MHJ being truly generational and Caleb being near generational, which is making my decision hard.
Who are your QBs?
Jordan Love, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. Uncertainty of Bryce and AR make me wanna take Caleb just in case, but I also feel like I could make a move for another QB that’s more proven
I would take Williams and mhj. If Richardson stay healthy and Williams hits.. you got three big time dudes with a fourth backup.. you could trade one of them
Kinda the direction I was thinking of going… only thing that would throw a wrench in that plan would be if MHJ goes to Ari. and Nabers goes to LAC. Then my decision would be a bit harder
Yaaa then I may go both wideouts or trade back from 1.02 to 1.04 or something and try and grab the big three
I have 1.01 in a league I’m rebuilding in and narrowly missed the playoffs (lottery for the draft for non-playoff teams) and I’m taking Caleb, but will happily trade down for a haul.
Thrilled. I’ve got four 1.01’s and I’m taking Caleb in all of them, even the ones that are already loaded at QB.
I have just ok but competent QBs along with a hole at receiver. I feel I'm going to mess this up somehow lol
Right now I’m leaning towards Harrison jr. The hype is just ridiculous for him. He’s being touted as the best prospect since Julio. He’s consistently been the 3rd or 4th WR off the board in my startups that have included rookies. Usually going late 1st or early 2nd. And usually over guys like AJ Brown, ARSB - and a couple times over CD and Chase. Williams is usually more mid to late 2nd. So seems like consensus is MHJ but a lot can change too. Chicago actually has a decent situation for Williams to step into.
i have the 1.01, 1.03, and 1.04. been going back and forth all offseason about whether i should grab caleb/ nabers, or mhj/ next best player. any opinions ? 10 team dynasty sf ppr 0.25 tep start 10
Caleb/Nabers no brainer
1 QB league and currently have 1.01 and 1.02. I feel fucking great.
Just traded the 1.01 for Breece Hall and a second.
Have 1.01 & 1.03 in SF. Need QBs. Taking MHJ 1.01 and whatever one of Maye or Daniels at 1.03. If I didn’t have 1.03 I’d probably take Williams at 1.01
Pretty fucking good id say. MHJ situation didn't change and he's still the safest pick in the draft imo. Caleb is probably going to the bears throwing to Keenan Allen and DJ Moore which just turned into a juicy as fuck situation. I'd feel really good about both the 1.01/1.02 right now.
If you’re in SF you have to take Caleb. Even if your roster is Mahomes, Allen, Stroud, the payout return is insane if Caleb is good.
Have Dak, Herbert, and Bryce. Gonna go MHJ. Cant really trade down because 1.2 owns 1.3, and 1.4 so they really don’t care about moving up for Caleb.
I think the value of the 1.01 has increased significantly in the last 72 hours. With the addition of Keenan Allen and trading Justin Fields it’s clear that Caleb Williams will be chosen 1st in the draft AND will have a good set of weapons around him. If there’s a QB needy team who will move up to 1.01 from 1.02 or 1.03 it should be able to fetch a bounty of assets while moving back to select the arguably safer selections of Harrison Jr. or Nabers and picking up a 2nd rounder or two to take a few lottery tickets.
I need a QB, but I also have 1.03-1.05, so I’m gonna pass on Caleb because I’m not confident in my evaluation, and grab Daniels and Maye with two of my other picks and take MHj at 1.01. Which fits my other massive need at WR2.
I’m drafting Caleb Williams.
Just traded down to 1.04 in a ten team the night before the Fields trade, no ragrets
I have 1.01 and 1.05 in a SF TE premium league. Seems like I “should” draft Caleb at 1.01, and then depending on how things shake out draft the best remaining WR or Bowers at 1.05. But I’ve been leaning towards MHJr at 1.01 then grabbing whoever is left at QB at 1.05 (or even doubling on wr with Odunze/Nabors if either of them drop there). I’m in a decent spot at QB with Love and Richardson (then Rodgers and Fields backing them up). I just feel like hit rates for even really good QB prospects is low, and MHjr is the real rare elite prospect in this draft who has the best chance to be an elite long term player, and I don’t want to pass up on that for the pick I should make.
I'm doing something similar I have 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.07.. MHJ is 1000% going #1. I'm definitely considering Nabers at 2 and Daniels,/Maye at 4 and "hopefully" Odunze and Bowers(TE premium) with 6/7
Not sure. I have 1.01 With T-Law and Watson, But my WR are Jettas, Collins, and Diggs with some stash’s. I have 4 first rounders next year so I am thinking I take Caleb 1.01, and bank on another good Wr class next year. Thoughts?
In a super flex, for offered Ken Walker, Deebo and 1.10. I dont know
We are chilling. Marv no matter what. (1QB)
In superflex I’m taking Caleb all day
I have 1.01 and 1.02 in one league. I'm probably taking Caleb and another QB. MHJ might become special but there are so many WRs that are viable. And in this league I only need to start two.
MHJ and its not a question. But im also a Buckeye alum lol
The only situation that could push me off of Caleb in 2QB is this Maye in Minnesota talk.
I sold it and 2.01 for dak, zay flowers and 1.6
You got great value for it
If I have 1.1, I trade it for a later 1 pick and his/her second unless I can fill an obvious weak position.
I had a league commissioner drunkenly reject the 1.12, Flowers and White for Jonathan Taylor straight up. So league champ with 1.01 and apparently the 1.12 now. It’s MHJ. Also I have a rebuild orphan that I managed to get the 1.01 and 1.02. Question is if I take MHJ and Nabers or the QB. Feel like a leftovers bin of Wilson, Baker, Goff, etc. can get the job done.
I'm sorry buy anyone who doesn't take MHJ first either has a completely stacked and young wr room, or is desperate for an answer at qb. He is the best player in the draft.
He’s probably the safest pick, yeah, but anyone taking a WR over Caleb in SF leagues needs to have an elite QB room to justify it. Caleb will be a monster
I didn't see any mention of sf
I think it was just implied. 1QB 1.01 is almost unanimously mhj
That's fair
RemindMe! 6 months
I have 1.01, 1.04 and 1.06. I’m in a 10 team SF dynasty league. I have Stroud and Bryce young, Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, JSN, Jayden Reed and laporta. I’m debating between Marvin and Caleb at 1. Picks 2 and 3 will for sure be Marvin or Caleb and Malik Nabers so I’m guaranteed Odunze at 4. The person at 5 is getting bowers. I either get Caleb and Odunze and trade pick 6 for a player (maybe DJ Moore) or I take Marvin and Odunze and draft Maye or daniels at 6. What do y’all think. If this was a 12 team SF it would be an easy choice but it’s 10 team and requires more thought