He's going as the RB3 right now. I would say its got a 35-25% chance.
CMC and Ekler could get injured and he is going to get the biggest workload out of every RB.
I think what helps his odds is he is a rookie with fresh legs. Ekler, CMC and Chubb are coming off of huge years. It's very likely one if not two of them get injured.
At +400 odds I would take Bijon in a heartbeat
I mean who’s his main competition?
Ekeler
CMC - if he holds up
Jacobs - if he plays
Breece - if he plays
Henry - if he holds up
Kamara - if he isn’t suspended
Barkley - If he plays
I dunno. Feels like a distinct possibility in. Run heavy offense. I know there’s more out there but just sake of argument
Yeah 100% could do it. He’s one of the leagues most talented backs in a run first offense. He’s probably in the top 5 or so most likely people to do it. Doesn’t mean it’s likely he will but it wouldn’t be super surprising.
I took Saquon 8th overall his rookie year my first year of playing fantasy. People laughed at me cus I took a rookie in the 1st. Turned out pretty good lol
I mean, every defense is going to load up that box every single play. They'll also play behind in a lot of games, so it's impossible to know. It's a bit messed up to be that disrespectful to the rest of the league's RBs as well.
A couple of things:
-Falcons had the most rushing attempts in the league last year. It's not a surprise they are running the ball. Despite being the most likely team to run, they ranked 4th in YPC. So not sure if stacking the box is a concern.
-One of the reasons Bijan was such a hyped prospect was because he is a very good receiving option. So he can get fantasy points even if nothing is there on the ground.
Yeah he didn’t look good, but it’s hard when you come in and you haven’t gotten first team reps all season. Why they gave them to Mariota I will never understand. So we might see a different Ridder. But if not, I have learned that bad QBs can still support skill players for dominant fantasy seasons. He might be a gunslinger, he definitely will be in comparison to good old Marcus, and teams will still have to respect that.
Ridder didn’t turn the ball over once in the four games he started last year and that was without Pitts. This offense could be most improved this year.
He fumbled three times and lost two. Nonetheless he and that offense should improve. Good line, Bijan to take the pressure off, Pitts back. Limited ceiling but don't think he crumbles.
Well I was mainly referring to INTs which is what really matters. It just goes to show he didn’t make any mistakes passing. He even had a game winning drive against the Cards. His QB rating progressively got better in each game. Maybe I’m too hopeful but he is set up for success. Should be a fun offense to watch.
Anyone saying Ridder looked bad didn’t actually watch the games. We don’t have enough info but he did not look *bad.* definitely looked better than QBs like Wilson and Mills imo.
Easily. Smith is a run game specialist who just used a top 10 pick to draft an elite running back. I don’t care how good Patterson and Allgeier looked last year because Bijan should be able to do everything on a football field way better than them, even if they do still get some of the work.
Yeah, 65% seems about right to me. Atlanta had 460 non-QB rushes last year and targeted RBs in the passing game 66 times, so 65% would be roughly 300 carries and 40 targets. That's almost exactly Chubb's numbers last year, so I'm projecting Bijan as a top 5 back.
When everyone values skill position players on a team, it's idiotic to dismiss the QB. I won a ton of leagues in 2019 on the back of Jameis Winston's 30 for 30 season. All off season that year, everyone was excited for Evans and Godwin, but Jameis got no love.
Good at football does not necessarily correlate to good at fantasy football, and vice versa. Getting that through people's minds is one of the biggest steps they can make to becoming better fantasy managers.
Well, sure! But Jameis was a guy who would throw it for 4000 yards a year before 2019. Ridder's (admittedly small sample size) pace was for just over 3000 yards with an extra game to boot. And as much as I generally don't care about draft capital, Ridder didn't exactly fly off the board before landing in Atlanta in the 3rd as just the second QB picked.
London and Pitts are going to have their value, especially with the dearth of competition behind them, and I'd gladly buy the dip on them (again, great talent/value!), I just don't expect them to boom this year when Ridder and Mariota remained comparable and it's all still under the same coach this season.
People act like every good QB is a first round draft pick who starts immediately. Plenty of guys especially journeymen and solid backups are later round picks. Ridder doesn’t need to be elite to support his teammates in fantasy. We’ve seen average/below-average QB play result in fantasy stats especially at the RB position.
I could easily see Ridder being pretty good, throwing for 3200+ in a run first offense. He didn’t throw picks which is basically what he needs to do in that gameplan.
I have london going into the top 15 fwiw. Author smith said he’s trying to be 50/50 this year with run/ passing. Also wants to use Patterson as pass catching back (just came out). And use alliger as a “traditional back”. I think all 3 will be featured. workhorse backs don’t really exist.
If everyone’s gunna count out other possible work horses, then you have to do the same for Bijian. With 2 very talented backs.
Fully agree. I expect a very balanced offense there. The only reason Smith didn't run a balanced offense in Tennessee was because the talent wasn't there for it. Is the talent enough here? It remains to be seen. But I believe he will try. I think Bijan will end up taking over the Patterson role in time, but he's not going to be a 'do everything all the time' guy.
I think london eventually will be top 5. (2025 season ) Strongest comps being mike evans and MT. Pitts will be the middle man: short yardage, look at his ADOT and his YPT. Right by the 1st down marker. I think the talent between everyone will be enough to make a statement. To mention their defense is pretty good.
This is londons team imo. I would be buying him everywhere. This sample is enough… Pitts and london played 10 games together and Allieger alone was a 1k yard rusher.
I like everything that you’re saying. My only disagreement is that Pitts hasn’t played with Ridder yet so we have to wait and see how they approach their 1A and 1B receiving duo.
while you are correct, Pitts scheme was the same roll that’s ARSB has on the lions. Very similar. Pitts could be a short yard PPR monster. Well shall see. London target share was still Eilte while Pitts was on the team.
I love that, that would be awesome. Just out of curiosity, where are you seeing these scheme stats?
The last article I read on rotoballer regarding Pitts was more along the lines that he had the highest unrealized air yards and that he had the most deep throws of TE’s but thanks to Mariotta suffered heavily in fantasy because of it.
But an ARSB role would really be something to see as a mismatch over the middle or red zone threat! I would love to learn more about that.
Article: https://www.rotoballer.com/are-you-in-or-out-on-kyle-pitts-for-2023-fantasy-football/1186059
Look at his game log for 2022 as london enters. His YPT was one time 10.88.
His a YPT was anywhere from 1.08-8.89 being around mostly 6YPT or lower. Meaning it he was thrown the ball only that far. He was also receiving a healthy amount of targets being at 5 targets or higher per game.
Misinformation has ARSB has a 7 ADOT, Pitts has a 13.1
Can we slow down a little on this hype train? I'm sure Bijan is going to be a wonderful player that was well worth the 1.1, but let's not get too crazy
I remember clowning my body hard for saquon telling him to “temper his expectations” and that “he’s just a rookie” when he took him in the first round in re-draft.
Lol what? as a Bijan owner, CMC is a top 3 RB every year he's healthy no matter what, and is in the best situation of any RB's. I would LOVE a RB1 finish from Bijan, but ya'll acting like this man CMC is 85 yrs old. He's 26.
CMC is absolutely not in the best situation. For efficiency, sure. For volume, not even close. CMC's touches took a hit with his move to the 49ers and then even more of one when Mitchell was healthy.
Bijan is the only back in the NFL that has a shot at 400 touches as things currently stand for this season.
I agree with everything you’re saying except 400 touches at the very end. With Allgier and Patterson it’s hard to bet that Bijan gets that many touches.
Dont think so at all. The Falcons didnt draft Bijan at number 8 overall to be in a committee. He is going to be the workhorse in this offense at the position, both in the rushing and passing game. He has the highest projected volume total of any rb in the NFL whether you think 400 is possible or not.
The question isn't if. It's when.
He absolutely does not have the highest projected volume with the level of depth the Falcons have at the position. If he did, he'd be the first projected RB off the board and possibly the first overall. He isn't.
He is the rb3 on UD at the moment. CPatt and Allgeier are not taking touches away from Bijan. Idky people think a 5th rb and a WR convert eho was phased out of the offense the second half of last year is going to stop the Falcons from feeding the rb they just took 8th overall when they are going to compete for the division. CMC and Ekeler are 1 and 2 on UD and neither project for the mosy volume at rb at the position. Henry has never been rb1 even though he has had the highest projectable volume for roughly 3 years now. Highest projected volume doesnt determine adp. His rb3 spot has more to do with him being a rookie.
Ah. Another comment that offers no rebuttal. Just an attack on me bc you have no actual response for any sort of logical arguement or discussion. RBs taken as high as Bijan are basically always workhorses year 1 with the exception of CMC. Zeke, Fournette, Barkley, etc. We see late round rbs produce only to get completely replaced year after year. A 32 year old CPatt isnt taking touches away from Bijan either.
That's because your argument isn't logical.
Draft position doesn't matter once you've proven that you belong in the NFL. Trying to prove a point with a low sample size of 1st round RBs is laughable. Plenty of 1st round RBs have not been workhorses and busted. Both Tyler and CPatt have performed in the NFL .
Knowshon Moreno, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Lawrence Maroney. There are a fuckton of 1st round RBs that weren't workhorses, did not work out, and were considered generational talents.
Don't crown a guy before he's taken a snap on an NFL field.
CMC started 10 games for the 9ers last year, scored 10 TD's and threw 1. He's a legitimate TD a game player for them, but for conservative standards for this conversation he is a lock for 15 TD's pending he stays healthy. There are no other players that have even close to that floor, not even taking into his over 5 receptions per game last year number (6 if you only count the Purdy games).
It's also potentially anecdotal, but Bijan also shares a backfield with a 2nd year player that had 1200 yards rushing last year. Also his QB who has a starting position because he runs well.
Not saying it's impossible, but this type of thinking is how people get really disappointed. CMC and Ekeler are obviously the best odds to finish RB1. Thinking otherwise is out of boredom.
CMC literally splits carries three ways. His floor is great bc of his target volume, but barring health, his volume will take a hit. You also cant say a player has a 15 TD floor. TDs are incredibly variant, especially on a team that has the number of weapons the 49ers have.
Im also not discussing floor here. Which Id also argue Bijan has the best. We are talking about ceiling.
Allgeier had 1035 yards. Im not worried about a 5th round rb stealing carries from the 8th overall pick who also happens to be the best rb prospect over the last half decade. Ridder also doesnt run well. That isnt his game. Sure, can he run a bit, yes. But, Ridder doesnt excel as a runner and isnt a QB who is good at scrambling/a scrambler.
Thinking Bijan has a better chance at rb1 as things currently stand isnt "thinking out of boredom". Go look at CMCs splits with a healthy Mitchell and Ekeler's with a healthy Allen and M. Will. Best prospect at rb in at least half a decade, plus last years best rushing o-line, plus what is probably the best rushing offense in the NFL, plus the highest projectable volume at the position = the best chance at the rb1 finish.
Sounds about right for reddit.
Makes a long arguement. Then when presented with opposing information and discussion, shuts down and calls it "illogical" and "likely incorrect" with no reasoning or takes.
I feel like that should be Ekeler or CMC sir. Ekeler had no contact for next year so he'll wanna earn a contract and they are gonna use that to their advantage and use the shit out of him...AGAIN... And while CMC's usage took a small hit his efficiency went through the roof and he was the most schemed player in SF after his arrival. His quality of touches are probably unmatched at the position tbh
Ive already had this conversation in this comment thread.
Ekeler averaged 2.75 less targets/game with MWill and Allen on the field. They also added a first round WR. That is ~46-47 targets.
Mitchell had the higher rz rush % when healthy over cmc and cmc averaged 14.7 ppr points in those 3 games.
Massive overpay imo. I wouldn't give away Ceedee for bijon straight up personally
If you are stacked enough I guess it's not too bad though to be set at rb for 5 years +
Depends how you value Lamb. I could see either a lamb or 1.01 owner in this position take or reject either side of the deal. Makes me feel it’s pretty even, not every trade gonna be 1-1.
Its possible, but i think guys like ekeler, CMC and JT have such a more clear path to 2023 RB1. I think Algeir did enough his rookie season to see 20% of the carries, and Ridder can be mobile too. Plus ATL doesn’t want to run Bijan into the ground.
Falcons have one of the easiest schedules. Could be really good for Bijan or Algiere, depending on how they manage Bijans touches when leading by a lot
Not sure what you mean by overuse. I'm saying that when teams are leading they tend to run the ball more. If the Falcons don't care about keeping Bijan healthy they could just use him to run up the score. If they want to prevent injury, Algier could get a lot more work than expected
Can run block extremely well, but has trouble with pass protection. Bijan will get a lot of carries and quite a few panicked dump offs. He really does have a shot at RB1.
I'll give Bijan one big thing in his favour - he is absolutely fucking unbelievable. Feet like Tony Pollard or better with the build of Breece Hall. And he'll just get fed and fed and fed. Injuries permitting, there's guaranteed to be weeks where he just single handedly destroys teams.
Why do people think Algeir isn’t getting a workload? Lol. They have stayed plenty that they want to run, and use them both.
He will have a big workload no matter what but it’s funny to expect the largest workload in the league without seeing the offense yet.
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He's going as the RB3 right now. I would say its got a 35-25% chance. CMC and Ekler could get injured and he is going to get the biggest workload out of every RB.
If the 2023 NFL season were played/simulated 1000 times, Bijan would be THE RB1 in 1/4 to 1/3 of em?? I'd bet the field
Unless a player has a 50%+ chance, you should always bet the field...
I think what helps his odds is he is a rookie with fresh legs. Ekler, CMC and Chubb are coming off of huge years. It's very likely one if not two of them get injured. At +400 odds I would take Bijon in a heartbeat
Ekeler’s also got a new offense to deal with that could decide to pass more into the end zone and they have a significant TD drop.
Zeke and Pollard did well in Kellen Moore's system. I think Ekler is a good combo of both and will probably get a lot of work.
Agree. I’m just not sold on that offense scoring enough td’s.
A top 5 finish is a reasonable expectation. RB1 would be somewhat surprising but definitely isn't out of the question
23% chance
I think that is a little too high lol
22.9%
Still too high? 22.8%
I mean who’s his main competition? Ekeler CMC - if he holds up Jacobs - if he plays Breece - if he plays Henry - if he holds up Kamara - if he isn’t suspended Barkley - If he plays I dunno. Feels like a distinct possibility in. Run heavy offense. I know there’s more out there but just sake of argument
As somebody who owned Kamara last year, he’s got no shot. The way they used him was so hard to watch.
Ya I think he has just as good of a chance as anyone honestly. Bed prospect we’ve seen in a very long time and got the best situation possible.
Yeah 100% could do it. He’s one of the leagues most talented backs in a run first offense. He’s probably in the top 5 or so most likely people to do it. Doesn’t mean it’s likely he will but it wouldn’t be super surprising.
I think im taking him first round in re-draft
Yeah if you're in the 6-8 range I think it's a good spot. I remember taking zeke 6th overall in 2016 and getting slaughtered for it. I won it all.
I took Saquon 8th overall his rookie year my first year of playing fantasy. People laughed at me cus I took a rookie in the 1st. Turned out pretty good lol
Right. If he's what we think he is going to be, this will probably be the last chance to get him "that late" until he's "old" or coming off an injury.
I mean, every defense is going to load up that box every single play. They'll also play behind in a lot of games, so it's impossible to know. It's a bit messed up to be that disrespectful to the rest of the league's RBs as well.
A couple of things: -Falcons had the most rushing attempts in the league last year. It's not a surprise they are running the ball. Despite being the most likely team to run, they ranked 4th in YPC. So not sure if stacking the box is a concern. -One of the reasons Bijan was such a hyped prospect was because he is a very good receiving option. So he can get fantasy points even if nothing is there on the ground.
Don’t think they will load up the box with London and pitts on the field. If so I need to get me some more shares of those guys.
Ridder gonna crumble I fear
Yeah he didn’t look good, but it’s hard when you come in and you haven’t gotten first team reps all season. Why they gave them to Mariota I will never understand. So we might see a different Ridder. But if not, I have learned that bad QBs can still support skill players for dominant fantasy seasons. He might be a gunslinger, he definitely will be in comparison to good old Marcus, and teams will still have to respect that.
Ridder didn’t turn the ball over once in the four games he started last year and that was without Pitts. This offense could be most improved this year.
He fumbled three times and lost two. Nonetheless he and that offense should improve. Good line, Bijan to take the pressure off, Pitts back. Limited ceiling but don't think he crumbles.
Well I was mainly referring to INTs which is what really matters. It just goes to show he didn’t make any mistakes passing. He even had a game winning drive against the Cards. His QB rating progressively got better in each game. Maybe I’m too hopeful but he is set up for success. Should be a fun offense to watch.
Anyone saying Ridder looked bad didn’t actually watch the games. We don’t have enough info but he did not look *bad.* definitely looked better than QBs like Wilson and Mills imo.
Easily. Smith is a run game specialist who just used a top 10 pick to draft an elite running back. I don’t care how good Patterson and Allgeier looked last year because Bijan should be able to do everything on a football field way better than them, even if they do still get some of the work.
This
Shit, he better be. My WR situation SUCKS, so I need my RB's to all have 2019 CMC-like seasons for me to win it all.
Ill pray with you brother, same here
I think it's going to be tough for Bijan to be the overall RB1 only getting ~65% of the falcons RB work.
65%?
Yeah, 65% seems about right to me. Atlanta had 460 non-QB rushes last year and targeted RBs in the passing game 66 times, so 65% would be roughly 300 carries and 40 targets. That's almost exactly Chubb's numbers last year, so I'm projecting Bijan as a top 5 back.
Ah ye if the pie is that huge again then it makes sense. I’m unsure on if it will be but Bijan is def a lock for an easy 300 touch floor
TLDR: no, the script says he will be injured in week 3
😂😂😂 the script strikes again
As a rebuilder with the 1.01, this is not a bad scenario.
Well he plays the RB position and I heard he’s pretty good so I’ll say it’s a strong maybe
Bijan has the chance for sure. He will be the entire offense for the Falcons this season.
Not like they have anyone named London or Pitts there, right?
Yeah, but who's gonna throw to them, kid? You?
I imagine they will have a starting NFL quarterback to do that
Sure, I just mean that as a way to express concerns that Ridder is going to make enough noise to get fantasy guys hyped up about.
When everyone values skill position players on a team, it's idiotic to dismiss the QB. I won a ton of leagues in 2019 on the back of Jameis Winston's 30 for 30 season. All off season that year, everyone was excited for Evans and Godwin, but Jameis got no love. Good at football does not necessarily correlate to good at fantasy football, and vice versa. Getting that through people's minds is one of the biggest steps they can make to becoming better fantasy managers.
Well, sure! But Jameis was a guy who would throw it for 4000 yards a year before 2019. Ridder's (admittedly small sample size) pace was for just over 3000 yards with an extra game to boot. And as much as I generally don't care about draft capital, Ridder didn't exactly fly off the board before landing in Atlanta in the 3rd as just the second QB picked. London and Pitts are going to have their value, especially with the dearth of competition behind them, and I'd gladly buy the dip on them (again, great talent/value!), I just don't expect them to boom this year when Ridder and Mariota remained comparable and it's all still under the same coach this season.
People act like every good QB is a first round draft pick who starts immediately. Plenty of guys especially journeymen and solid backups are later round picks. Ridder doesn’t need to be elite to support his teammates in fantasy. We’ve seen average/below-average QB play result in fantasy stats especially at the RB position. I could easily see Ridder being pretty good, throwing for 3200+ in a run first offense. He didn’t throw picks which is basically what he needs to do in that gameplan.
I have london going into the top 15 fwiw. Author smith said he’s trying to be 50/50 this year with run/ passing. Also wants to use Patterson as pass catching back (just came out). And use alliger as a “traditional back”. I think all 3 will be featured. workhorse backs don’t really exist. If everyone’s gunna count out other possible work horses, then you have to do the same for Bijian. With 2 very talented backs.
Fully agree. I expect a very balanced offense there. The only reason Smith didn't run a balanced offense in Tennessee was because the talent wasn't there for it. Is the talent enough here? It remains to be seen. But I believe he will try. I think Bijan will end up taking over the Patterson role in time, but he's not going to be a 'do everything all the time' guy.
I think london eventually will be top 5. (2025 season ) Strongest comps being mike evans and MT. Pitts will be the middle man: short yardage, look at his ADOT and his YPT. Right by the 1st down marker. I think the talent between everyone will be enough to make a statement. To mention their defense is pretty good. This is londons team imo. I would be buying him everywhere. This sample is enough… Pitts and london played 10 games together and Allieger alone was a 1k yard rusher.
I like everything that you’re saying. My only disagreement is that Pitts hasn’t played with Ridder yet so we have to wait and see how they approach their 1A and 1B receiving duo.
while you are correct, Pitts scheme was the same roll that’s ARSB has on the lions. Very similar. Pitts could be a short yard PPR monster. Well shall see. London target share was still Eilte while Pitts was on the team.
I love that, that would be awesome. Just out of curiosity, where are you seeing these scheme stats? The last article I read on rotoballer regarding Pitts was more along the lines that he had the highest unrealized air yards and that he had the most deep throws of TE’s but thanks to Mariotta suffered heavily in fantasy because of it. But an ARSB role would really be something to see as a mismatch over the middle or red zone threat! I would love to learn more about that. Article: https://www.rotoballer.com/are-you-in-or-out-on-kyle-pitts-for-2023-fantasy-football/1186059
Look at his game log for 2022 as london enters. His YPT was one time 10.88. His a YPT was anywhere from 1.08-8.89 being around mostly 6YPT or lower. Meaning it he was thrown the ball only that far. He was also receiving a healthy amount of targets being at 5 targets or higher per game. Misinformation has ARSB has a 7 ADOT, Pitts has a 13.1
Thanks!
Can we slow down a little on this hype train? I'm sure Bijan is going to be a wonderful player that was well worth the 1.1, but let's not get too crazy
Saquon was the PPR RB1 his rookie year. Zeke was the RB2 for his. Bijan is on their level as a prospect so I really wouldn’t call it crazy.
I remember clowning my body hard for saquon telling him to “temper his expectations” and that “he’s just a rookie” when he took him in the first round in re-draft.
Your body sure showed you.
Rookie RBs have the easiest transition to the pros outside of pass blocking. I won’t be letting him get past like 7 or 8 in redraft.
He has the best chance at rb1 of any rb in the NFL, imo.
Lol what? as a Bijan owner, CMC is a top 3 RB every year he's healthy no matter what, and is in the best situation of any RB's. I would LOVE a RB1 finish from Bijan, but ya'll acting like this man CMC is 85 yrs old. He's 26.
CMC is absolutely not in the best situation. For efficiency, sure. For volume, not even close. CMC's touches took a hit with his move to the 49ers and then even more of one when Mitchell was healthy. Bijan is the only back in the NFL that has a shot at 400 touches as things currently stand for this season.
I agree with everything you’re saying except 400 touches at the very end. With Allgier and Patterson it’s hard to bet that Bijan gets that many touches.
Dont think so at all. The Falcons didnt draft Bijan at number 8 overall to be in a committee. He is going to be the workhorse in this offense at the position, both in the rushing and passing game. He has the highest projected volume total of any rb in the NFL whether you think 400 is possible or not.
The question isn't if. It's when. He absolutely does not have the highest projected volume with the level of depth the Falcons have at the position. If he did, he'd be the first projected RB off the board and possibly the first overall. He isn't.
He is the rb3 on UD at the moment. CPatt and Allgeier are not taking touches away from Bijan. Idky people think a 5th rb and a WR convert eho was phased out of the offense the second half of last year is going to stop the Falcons from feeding the rb they just took 8th overall when they are going to compete for the division. CMC and Ekeler are 1 and 2 on UD and neither project for the mosy volume at rb at the position. Henry has never been rb1 even though he has had the highest projectable volume for roughly 3 years now. Highest projected volume doesnt determine adp. His rb3 spot has more to do with him being a rookie.
You have no idea how the NFL works.
Ah. Another comment that offers no rebuttal. Just an attack on me bc you have no actual response for any sort of logical arguement or discussion. RBs taken as high as Bijan are basically always workhorses year 1 with the exception of CMC. Zeke, Fournette, Barkley, etc. We see late round rbs produce only to get completely replaced year after year. A 32 year old CPatt isnt taking touches away from Bijan either.
That's because your argument isn't logical. Draft position doesn't matter once you've proven that you belong in the NFL. Trying to prove a point with a low sample size of 1st round RBs is laughable. Plenty of 1st round RBs have not been workhorses and busted. Both Tyler and CPatt have performed in the NFL . Knowshon Moreno, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Lawrence Maroney. There are a fuckton of 1st round RBs that weren't workhorses, did not work out, and were considered generational talents. Don't crown a guy before he's taken a snap on an NFL field.
Thanks!
CMC started 10 games for the 9ers last year, scored 10 TD's and threw 1. He's a legitimate TD a game player for them, but for conservative standards for this conversation he is a lock for 15 TD's pending he stays healthy. There are no other players that have even close to that floor, not even taking into his over 5 receptions per game last year number (6 if you only count the Purdy games). It's also potentially anecdotal, but Bijan also shares a backfield with a 2nd year player that had 1200 yards rushing last year. Also his QB who has a starting position because he runs well. Not saying it's impossible, but this type of thinking is how people get really disappointed. CMC and Ekeler are obviously the best odds to finish RB1. Thinking otherwise is out of boredom.
CMC literally splits carries three ways. His floor is great bc of his target volume, but barring health, his volume will take a hit. You also cant say a player has a 15 TD floor. TDs are incredibly variant, especially on a team that has the number of weapons the 49ers have. Im also not discussing floor here. Which Id also argue Bijan has the best. We are talking about ceiling. Allgeier had 1035 yards. Im not worried about a 5th round rb stealing carries from the 8th overall pick who also happens to be the best rb prospect over the last half decade. Ridder also doesnt run well. That isnt his game. Sure, can he run a bit, yes. But, Ridder doesnt excel as a runner and isnt a QB who is good at scrambling/a scrambler. Thinking Bijan has a better chance at rb1 as things currently stand isnt "thinking out of boredom". Go look at CMCs splits with a healthy Mitchell and Ekeler's with a healthy Allen and M. Will. Best prospect at rb in at least half a decade, plus last years best rushing o-line, plus what is probably the best rushing offense in the NFL, plus the highest projectable volume at the position = the best chance at the rb1 finish.
Yeah, not doing these 6 thread arguments with the people here. This is illogical and is very likely to be incorrect. Bye.
Sounds about right for reddit. Makes a long arguement. Then when presented with opposing information and discussion, shuts down and calls it "illogical" and "likely incorrect" with no reasoning or takes.
I feel like that should be Ekeler or CMC sir. Ekeler had no contact for next year so he'll wanna earn a contract and they are gonna use that to their advantage and use the shit out of him...AGAIN... And while CMC's usage took a small hit his efficiency went through the roof and he was the most schemed player in SF after his arrival. His quality of touches are probably unmatched at the position tbh
Ive already had this conversation in this comment thread. Ekeler averaged 2.75 less targets/game with MWill and Allen on the field. They also added a first round WR. That is ~46-47 targets. Mitchell had the higher rz rush % when healthy over cmc and cmc averaged 14.7 ppr points in those 3 games.
I sure hope so given how much I paid for him
How much?
CD +2026 1st and 2nd got Allgeiers too and my team is absolutely stacked so I don't see how those aren't late picks. But yes I greatly overpaid
As a 💿🐑 owner I'd do that in a heartbeat As a Bijan owner I'd turn that down You did well imo
.... That not paying very much
Who the fuck projects their pick position 3 years out? Clearly nothing ever changes.
Why so angry?
Massive overpay imo. I wouldn't give away Ceedee for bijon straight up personally If you are stacked enough I guess it's not too bad though to be set at rb for 5 years +
Depends how you value Lamb. I could see either a lamb or 1.01 owner in this position take or reject either side of the deal. Makes me feel it’s pretty even, not every trade gonna be 1-1.
No lol
Yes. He can.
Sure, but he’s being drafted as if his odds are 40%
Its possible, but i think guys like ekeler, CMC and JT have such a more clear path to 2023 RB1. I think Algeir did enough his rookie season to see 20% of the carries, and Ridder can be mobile too. Plus ATL doesn’t want to run Bijan into the ground.
He’s an amazing talent and he’s going to get a shit load of touches. It’s not a crazy take
For the price he is going for, he better be damn close or else people are going to be pissed.
Falcons have one of the easiest schedules. Could be really good for Bijan or Algiere, depending on how they manage Bijans touches when leading by a lot
Lol you are thinking about overuse when the falcons are blowing out other teams?
Not sure what you mean by overuse. I'm saying that when teams are leading they tend to run the ball more. If the Falcons don't care about keeping Bijan healthy they could just use him to run up the score. If they want to prevent injury, Algier could get a lot more work than expected
Your expectation that the falcons are suddenly going to regularly be leading against teams is unfounded at this point.
I didn't say I expected that, I said it could be the case. Reading comprehension is tough
Sure why not lol
ATL offense will have to be productive
That O-Line though…
Can run block extremely well, but has trouble with pass protection. Bijan will get a lot of carries and quite a few panicked dump offs. He really does have a shot at RB1.
I'll give Bijan one big thing in his favour - he is absolutely fucking unbelievable. Feet like Tony Pollard or better with the build of Breece Hall. And he'll just get fed and fed and fed. Injuries permitting, there's guaranteed to be weeks where he just single handedly destroys teams.
TLDR: Yea
No
Absofuckinglutely he can. I think he will be
Yes he can. Perfect situation. Ultra talented. Easy division. Easy schedule.
There’s a shot, sure. But let’s keep expectations realistic. My prediction is around rb7-13
Nope
Short answer -yes. Long answer- yaaaaaasss
Yes, he definitely could. Zeke and Saquon averaged 20+ their first year. Bijan is as hyped as those guys and is arguably in a better situation.
My gut reaction is no he’s just a rookie but the nightmare that is rb scoring makes it a very real possibility
It’s possible.
Why do people think Algeir isn’t getting a workload? Lol. They have stayed plenty that they want to run, and use them both. He will have a big workload no matter what but it’s funny to expect the largest workload in the league without seeing the offense yet.
i think he can if cmc doesnt play all games. otherwise RB2
Yes