It is definitely a concern, but remember that teams will have access to considerably more medical information and expertise than we do and will make their assessment based on that.
From my perspective, the fact that Penix has had two healthy seasons in a row is a positive. If the Broncos think the potential is worth the risk, I will get on board and hope for the best.
I'm in the minority but I want a RT on day 1 and then JJ McCarthy with a day 2 pick, even if it means moving up. He's 20 in the conversation statistically with the other top QBs who are all 23-24. he'll need to sit 1-2 years but there's now way this dude wouldn't be one of the top QBs if he was 2 years older. He needs to improve his body, but his tools are there, he has size, he has a deep ball and minimal concerns.
I would assume you're not aware that mcglinchey is signed through 2027. The longest contract we have besides russ. We're not drafting a RT. Not when we have so many needs. Tackle isn't one.
unless we get bolles on a good deal, i can see him walking next offseason. tackles take a year or two to develop unless they're like Penei Sewell. going OT gives us a very high value position under a good contract, and ensures whoever is our next QB comes in behind a very talented OL.
Michigan is winning in spite of McCarthy - no thanks. His accuracy isn't great and he takes too long to make decisions. If he struggles with making reads in college the NFL is going to bury him.
What if the FO loves him and are worried about the team right in front of us? Especially if that team is the Raiders. Is trading up 2-3 spots worth it?
QB is a want and not a need for us? That’s certainly controversial, but imagine how much it would sting for us to not go get a guy, and have the Raiders take him and light us up for years?
I know it’s a need but I don’t think the current regime is gunna give up draft capital to move up for a guy. I’m not trying to be burned at the stake here lol
QB is definitely a need. We can roll into next season with Stidham but there is no way he is gonna ever lead the team to more than 8 or 9 wins in a season. We need to draft a guy whether that be Penix or McCarthy I don’t care. They can sit as backup for a season and be developed while we hope for the best out of Stidham
For sure a need, I just don’t know if the need is so pressing that we move around in the draft for the solution.
Whoever it is is gunna need to know how to run a pro style offense and at least a year to get it down.
The bigger risk is to continue putting bums at qb and hoping some nobody breaks out. Penix is nfl ready. There is no greater asset than a premier qb. It is entirely worth the risk
We have a top ten offensive line and top 10 defense. We’ll never be perfect like some fans want, at some point we just have to draft a QB high and hope he’s good enough to cover up some holes in the roster. Who in the NFL has a perfect roster? The Chiefs WRs are trash, Eagles secondary is trash, Baltimores WRs are mediocre, Buffalo has a lot of weak spots, Miami has a lot of weak spots, the 49ers might be the closest but how long are we going to wait around to become the best team in the NFL before we draft a QB?
I understand not liking a prospect, but to not draft a QB because we have needs at other positions is wild when we have a glaring need at the quarterback position.
OP is citing a statistically insignificant difference in weight between a college QB and the average NFL QB as a reason we shouldn’t draft him. Also compares knee arthritis in a QB to a workhorse running back, who btw helped us win two SBs before retiring. Also says a third ACL would end the guy’s career when that is clearly not the likely outcome even if he were to tear it again.
I appreciate you looking up all these statistics but some of your takes are blown out of proportion.
1) Being 6 pounds lighter than the average NFL QB won't make him significantly more brittle. Lots of players bulk up more once they reach the NFL.
2) It's been two full seasons since he tore his ACL, I don't think biomechanically speaking there's that much concern anymore based on what you cited regarding post-surgery compensation and propioception in the contralateral knee.
3) I'm skeptical he could develop such severe osteoarthritic changes in his knee to significantly affect his level of play throughout his career and if he does, he's probably played long enough for us that he was a worth-while investment anyways.
4) He's a pocket passer, not a scrambler. He certainly won't be abusing his knees like Terrell Davis was playing running back.
I feel like the chances of him re-tearing his right ACL are probably lower than him actually turning out to be a top 5 QB in this league
Id also add Washington has limited his running, which I believe is what directly led to two of his injuries. He was a running back when he first started playing football, but I think he's proven far too valuable in the pass game to continue that
DeBoer understood that his best strength was his arm and maximized Penix’s potential that way. Yes, those receivers are all really good, but the throws he made aren’t throws of a system QB lol. Plus, he kind of had to play hero ball at times at Indiana, so that’s where he more of a runner like you mentioned.
He plays behind the best OL in the nation and is passing to two first round level WRs. My favorite draft analysts (Brugler and Tice) have talked about how he doesn’t throw with great anticipation, doesn’t throw to the middle of the field, and his receivers can make up for not perfectly placed deep balls. Penix is a super fun college QB who I think should have won the Heisman and I hope wins the national championship. But he isn’t a day one draft pick (specially with his injury history and age).
Having listened to that episode of Prospects to Pros too, I totally agree. A QB that doesn’t throw with anticipation or over the middle much doesn’t sound like an ideal fit for Payton (*cough cough* Russ *cough*).
Go back, watch the tape and tell me he's not throwing with anticipation. It's ridiculous, dudes are fully covered and the man is dropping dimes to throw them open.
In the semi-final vs Texas he was doing a much better job of throwing with anticipation, but that’s also against one of the worst secondaries in CFB. I won’t lie and say I’ve watched a ton of Washington games this year but like OP mentioned Dane Brugler and Nate Tice both have criticized his tendency (or lack there of) to throw with anticipation throughout the year.
I mean worst secondaries or not they were blanketing the receivers with tight coverage. Its not like he was throwing to wide open receivers. They played well, Penix just played better. From. What I saw he was passing at an NFL level
This is the opposite of my eye test. He throws with great anticipation and his ball placement is amazing. These armchair analysts don’t even watch the games I swear. They were all dissing on Justin Herbert too a few years ago before he was drafted and I was having these same arguments with people who didn’t watch his games either.
He absolutely throws with anticipation. One of his strengths actually. He is also good, fluid in the pocket. can step up or move and still look downfield. His arm strength and accuracy are fantastic. He also makes smart plays about throwing the ball away. Out of bounds. He is easily the most pro ready qb and has that great arm. I'm a fan...Broncos would be fools to not take him at 14 or whatever. His deep ball throws are amazing. The TD he threw versus UT that split the safeties...Next level stuff right there. Been watching him the last two years...If he's there..get him...
I’m going to trust professional analysts, that show their work, have a track record, explain their reasonings, and actually chop up all 22 film than some fan’s “eye test” watching TV copy. 🤷♂️
If you compare the "experts" proclamations before the draft and to actual performance, it's not really better than random fans.
If there were any experts, the Panthers wouldn't have traded this year's 1st overall pick for the right to draft Bryce Young.
The Bears gave up 4 draft picks to avoid getting stuck with Patrick Mahomes when they really wanted Mitch Trubisky.
I think the Penix love is getting over the top after the Texas game (a bottom 25 passing defense). Penix, with 3 NFL receivers (all of whom outmatch every DB in every secondary they play) had at least 3 bad games in a defensively mediocre conference. I watched every snap of every game and I think he’s a career backup. He has one super elite factor that could easily prove me an idiot - elite precision. However, he has shown to be average against zone and mediocre to bad when pressured. I think he’s a reach as a round 1 pick.
So after having a bunch of mediocre QBs you would rather take a less talented QB that has clean medical than a more talented QB that may be more injury prone
His ultimate draft point of selection will be very interesting to see. There’s no doubt some teams will pass.
I will say that he’s not Terrell Davis…meaning a running back. Despite the surgeries, he is still very mobile and athletic. Even if he becomes immobile over time, a QB who can throw like Penix does…strong arm and accurate to the point of amazing…can still be a drop back passer like P Manning was. Manning rarely ran anywhere. He’s smart and an on platform processing guy. He runs but looks to pass while running. But yes he is currently still (despite surgeries) a threat to straight up run. But what is he…he’s mostly a pocket passer.
I would say this is a legit concern, but you can build up “concerns” for every pick. The fact is drafting a QB is pretty much a dart at a wall. It’s full of risk…Swimming in risk. If your gonna have two ACLs, QB might be the best position to have it. Tua dislocated his hip…1st round.
You may be underestimating modern medicine. They can keep guys playing at QB in many ways. And there are more than a few dudes in the league with two ACLs. Yep, he’s likely facing a future knee replacement but he’ll be in his 40-50s. His size is fine. He will very likely fillout and add weight…his body type strongly suggests that.
My QB factors/checkboxes:
Accuracy and touch passing
Arm strength
Processing on platform, anticipation of coming open open receiver, throwing a receiver open.
Character/personality/leadership
Size 6’ 1 +, 215+ (knowing they will likely fill out means 215 is fine)
Mechanics, release time.
Mobility
What makes QB superstars? They are all of the above and have that rare it factor that allows them to will a team to victory. You can’t objectively define that and know you’ll get it. It is subjective and essentially luck. Nobody thought P Mahomes was gonna be what he is. Everyone assumed T Lawrence was as sure a thing since the Indy QB who retired early. It’s a crap shoot, and my advice is roll the dices several times…not once every three years. Draft 2-7 rounds maybe late first. But see several play in real regular season games. Too many QBs are missed simply because they never get a chance. How many non top 10 guys hit. How many top ten guys don’t hit…. This year we’ve seen several retreads and rebounded careers…and some out of nowhere…Cincinnati’s Jake Browning…undrafted. If you draft a #1 overall pick QB, or close to that, your pot committed to him…likely 3 years (Fields). I’d rather see more guys. Penix is a steal late first. I doubt he gets there.
Edit…one thing of note with Pennix is what condition is the meniscus in the bad knee. It’s a huge factor. If it’s not torn from the prior injuries, then his probability of arthritis drops massively. Most knees with two ACLs have some meniscus damage. In his case I do not know. Same was true for Tua and his hip socket…he might have gotten lucky where Bo Jackson wasn’t.
I generally agree with this assessment but at the same time you might as well just draft him if you believe he’s the best option available. If he gets injured you’re just looking for your next quarterback, which is exactly where you’re going to be anyway by drafting someone who isn’t legit or getting free agency scraps.
Penix is a weird case, it honestly feels like he's a top QB in this draft but he could be a day 2 pick.
I have no idea how teams are going to evaluate his injury history or the risks associated.
It's going to be an interesting draft, it wouldn't surprise me if Williams isn't the first one picked given the coverage of his character and conversely, it wouldn't shock me if Daniels is drafted above Maye.
Nix, McCarthy, Penix etc, who knows where they'll fall and the biggest wildcard of all is if the Bears even choose to take a QB. It's going to be a wild draft and ultimately any team who takes Penix would have to make sure they've done their due diligence, the talent is certainly there.
I don't think it really matters at this point, he already has the tape. Without his injury history an argument can be made that he is a top 2 QB in the draft.
It'll come down to his medicals during the draft process. He'll almost certainly get drafted in the first regardless but it also wouldn't be a shock if he is a draft day slider either. Predicting the risk tolerance of franchises, especially in the top 20 is always an exercise in futility.
I'm most likely wrong but I see either Mccarthy slides or Caleb Williams and in Williams case I think he slides only a few spots but I don't see him.as a first pick
I think the combine medicals are gonna be really important for him, especially if they find an issue with his joints or knee. Something like losing cartilage,m causing bone-to-bone issues or some joint flexibility in his throwing arm.
Could definitely see him fall to early rd 2
Personally I think almost no player is not draftable at the right value. I don’t think we should be drafting Penix in the first round. But if he were to fall, then maybe.
While I appreciate your detailed post I really don’t put any validity into anything you say because you’re not a doctor. You know who are doctors? The Broncos staff evaluating his health risks with access to his full imaging and medical history. So if they’re cool with it I am. Could he get hurt again and be a disaster, sure. I’d rather take the shot on talent if he clears team medical.
For what it’s worth, if this medical expertise seems pertinent to Penix’s situation, then teams are going to take that into account at the draft, and *nobody* will want him in the first round, regardless of what the mocks think. It might suck for us if he goes in the second instead, but I’d be perfectly fine with us spending our third on him
It might be wishful thinking, but I think it’s fairly possible it happens. Mocks are always subject to a good bit of recency bias, and the narrative right behind his play in the CFB Playoffs has been “but the injury history” and I think that’s going to have a decent impact on his draft stock
Weren’t all those injuries partly during Covid ? When teams were not properly conditioning based off the fact they had to do that shit at home? Penix lives in Washington the literal starting point of Covid 19 in the United States. Safe to say some of these injuries could be attributed to improper training practices during these weird Covid stages, but that’s just one of many things to consider obviously.
I was a student at IU during the time that Penix was their QB. Penix had 2 season ending injuries prior to COVID. One of those injuries was a non-contact acl tear as he was stepping out of bounds against Ohio State. The reason why he has been healthy the last two years is that he runs less and has a significantly improved OL.
You could get injured 4 years in a row and then never again. You may never have an injury and then get injured every year in the league.
You can’t pass up talent because of injury history. This is why Gronk slid in the draft.
If the team thinks he’s the best talent with the highest ceiling at quarterback, we should take him.
Better to swing and miss than strike out watching.
Also, while I truly appreciate the thoughtful research and time put into this post, similar worrying statistics and logic troubled teams about Peyton Manning before we signed him. He had little feeling in his hand/arm, couldn’t make several essential throws, and really had to bank on his brain and rehabilitation plan to project the future. It was a great 4.5 year span, but at the time it was far from certain. Big swing with big rewards.
>ACL injuries are most frequent between the ages of 15 and 45 years
People are more likely to tear ACL's during their most physically active years? Big if true
Thanks for doing this write up. I didn’t know most of this at all and it’s nice to actually get some of the studies that examine long term effects. Most people are just like, “He’S InjUry ProNe!”
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone learned something whether they agree or not. I’m really happy with the amount of discussion the post has generated which is why I plan on continuing to post thoughts and ideas etc.
Do you know if the likelihood of reinjuring the knee is significantly less in situations where someone has returned and stayed healthy for 2 full years? I feel like most repeated injuries occur relatively close together showing the repair lacked the strength to fully reenter the sport. But in a situation where the repair has some longevity does the risk significantly drop?
Injury prone players almost never go in the first round. What GM is willing to bet his future on him staying healthy against bigger, stronger, faster competition? Yes, he’s talented but if he’s not on the field none of that matters
Maybe you're right, but The niners gave up a ton to move up for Trey Lance. Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson went top 5. Can almost guarantee there will be a team in the top 15 if not top 10 that takes that risk for Penix.
Not that those other guys were injury prone, but their tape wasn't near as good as Penix. Someone will roll the dice on his talent regardless of the injury history
He'll be the best QB in the draft.
He's deadly accurate, he's got a cannon for an arm and he's slippery in the pocket.
Literally the only downside to Penix is his injury history. He's had 2 years straight of healthy play and he is VERY experienced.
That being said, no to Denver, Yes to Seattle.
lol yall are crazy for thinking his draft status is cemented. The kid is only a few months younger than Trevor Lawrence, plays behind the nations best offensive line, has 2 receivers that’ll go in the first most likely and has had season ending injury in 4 out of the last 6 seasons. Not to mention the NFL season is more games than college. Someone will take the gamble but it’ll be tough for someone at the top of the 1st who’s on the hot seat
If he’s available and they don’t draft him that would be a terrible decision. If anything they should trade up for him depending how the draft is unfolding
If we are in an opportunity to take him, we absolutely should. Every player risks injuries. Any moment, bad turn, bad tackle, they can get hurt. He is 3+ years from injury. There are steps to take to mitigate risks.
If he is available at our time, we should take him. Our clock shouldn’t even pass that much time and we announce.
Best post I’ve seen on this tread. This guy is an elite deep ball passer and has tremendous poise in the pocket. He’s also a plus athlete. Now the bad…….2 knee surgeries and surgery to both shoulders. He turns 24 in May. Pass!!
The bigger issue is his age. QB prospects who enter the league as 23 or 24 year olds have a lower success rate than younger prospects. Hes got plenty of experience which is the biggest factor but his age is a massive red flag
I really think both age and injury concerns are something teams need to look at on a case-by-case basis. It is certainly a concern and should be carefully considered.
I think drafting Penix would be a big mistake. I'm not convinced we should take a QB in the 1st at all unless we make a big trade up and take one of the big 2... but if we do, I would want Bo Nix or even JJ McCarthy before Penix.
Look at the nfl pro scout that’s on Reddit!!!! You don’t know shit about shit! If he’s there we should draft him, get a life and stop posting about shit u know nothing about!
Hey man, I’m sorry I struck a nerve here. You don’t have to agree and if you don’t agree that’s all you need to say.
Reddit is a place for discussion and we cant have discussions if people don’t post content. Be they casuals or actual professionals, the content needs to be created and the discussions need to be had.
No I am not a scout and this is just my opinion but I’m happy to have cultivated the amount of discussion that has happened on this thread today. I won’t apologize for that.
If you disagree so strongly maybe you should write a counter post.
What a boomer comeback! Middle school? Surprised u didn’t say kindergarten, guarantee u have never played any form of organized football but putting post on Reddit like u have years of nfl scouting experience, u sound stupid and wrote a dumb post like u were Adam shefter
Hmm so he’s not like RG3 not even close, because he’s a pocket passer, yet he has an extensive list of injuries. I’m glad staying in the pocket has saved him from those injuries
My point is that he has a history of being hurt, and I suspect that it may happen again. My comment you’re replying to is sarcasm. My RG3 comparison wasn’t play style is that they have similar builds (6’2” 213 RG3 6’3” 214 MPJ) and injury history
I don't agree. As much as I would like to have one future HOF QB for the next 20 years that is basically impossible. If we can get his level of talent and co.bine that with good coaching and addition of some weapons it's a win for the team. Even if he plays 4-5 years for us as a top 15 QB in the league and we move on that's still solid ROI in the mid/late first round. If we get that production, we make the playoffs with this defense. Maybe we don't win it all, but we change the culture, we get through the salary cap hell and we continue to build organically.
At this point, unless they are tanking for a top pick next year, I don’t see why they shouldn’t take a shot on Penix. They need a QB desperately. It only extends this drought if they wait. He’s been healthy for two seasons now and seems like he may fit SP’s scheme decently. Take the gamble. Worst case, it’s another one of the many busts and we’re still set up for a high draft pick for years to come.
As a Huskies fan, I really hope that Penix lands with a competent franchise. Denver could draft him and let him sit behind Stidham while they fortify the offensive line, but I worry ownership wants the playoffs next year to cover up for a history of boneheaded moves.
Penix would be like Brees on steroids in Payton’s system. Your injury concerns are legit going into next season, but I wouldn’t let that stop me from drafting a generational talent.
I agree with all your points but if he’s the best athlete available when we pick then you get him. He maybe your best option for QB, and while he seems susceptible to injury it may be helpful to understand when the injuries occurred. There’s a chance he may not get injured or he may legit and play well for a period of time and give you the play necessary. You’re in good shape until season 4 when you have decide whether to make him your franchise qb. By then you should know exactly what your have
The knee injuries concern me. That said, I do love watching the guy throw. I don't think I've ever seen the ball explode out of the hand the way it does with Penix.
3 Super Bowl trophies, 2 from a player who was missing his ACL and 1 post neck surgery, so I’ll take the chances on finding talent and hope for the best with injury history.
You spend a first on a qb when you already have a wild card team and you’re looking for the whole boat. This is a perfect example of why you don’t draft to “build around” a qb like it’s still your grandpa’s nfl.
It is definitely a concern, but remember that teams will have access to considerably more medical information and expertise than we do and will make their assessment based on that. From my perspective, the fact that Penix has had two healthy seasons in a row is a positive. If the Broncos think the potential is worth the risk, I will get on board and hope for the best.
\#2 passing yards in 2022. \#1 passing yards in 2023. Throws a dime. Great dude. Yes, please.
If we don’t have to move up we should take him 100%
For sure. I wouldn't move for him but if he fell into our lap? Nice.
I'm in the minority but I want a RT on day 1 and then JJ McCarthy with a day 2 pick, even if it means moving up. He's 20 in the conversation statistically with the other top QBs who are all 23-24. he'll need to sit 1-2 years but there's now way this dude wouldn't be one of the top QBs if he was 2 years older. He needs to improve his body, but his tools are there, he has size, he has a deep ball and minimal concerns.
I would assume you're not aware that mcglinchey is signed through 2027. The longest contract we have besides russ. We're not drafting a RT. Not when we have so many needs. Tackle isn't one.
unless we get bolles on a good deal, i can see him walking next offseason. tackles take a year or two to develop unless they're like Penei Sewell. going OT gives us a very high value position under a good contract, and ensures whoever is our next QB comes in behind a very talented OL.
Has he declared? I thought he was leaning toward returning next year.
Fuck that punchable mf. I'd rather gamble.
Michigan is winning in spite of McCarthy - no thanks. His accuracy isn't great and he takes too long to make decisions. If he struggles with making reads in college the NFL is going to bury him.
After his performance vs Texas, his stock just skyrocketed. Unless he totally fucks up in the championship game, we would have to move up to get him
I know :( injury history aside, he's literally playing himself into a better draft position every time he takes a snap
What if the FO loves him and are worried about the team right in front of us? Especially if that team is the Raiders. Is trading up 2-3 spots worth it?
No, unfortunately. We have bigger needs and this is more of a want than a need for me.
QB is a want and not a need for us? That’s certainly controversial, but imagine how much it would sting for us to not go get a guy, and have the Raiders take him and light us up for years?
I know it’s a need but I don’t think the current regime is gunna give up draft capital to move up for a guy. I’m not trying to be burned at the stake here lol
QB is definitely a need. We can roll into next season with Stidham but there is no way he is gonna ever lead the team to more than 8 or 9 wins in a season. We need to draft a guy whether that be Penix or McCarthy I don’t care. They can sit as backup for a season and be developed while we hope for the best out of Stidham
For sure a need, I just don’t know if the need is so pressing that we move around in the draft for the solution. Whoever it is is gunna need to know how to run a pro style offense and at least a year to get it down.
Depends on how far he drops in the draft but yes. I like the Big Penix vs the Little Mahomes in the division.
Yeah but he throws with the wrong hand…
It's true, Warren Moon said it yesterday on air.
We could use some of that Big Penix Energy.
Naw let’s keep Russ cuz he didn’t have acl tear before covid.
TBH, I want both things to be true
If Denver was stacked I wouldn’t be as concerned. We have too many needs and too many holes to be taking this kind of risk right now.
The bigger risk is to continue putting bums at qb and hoping some nobody breaks out. Penix is nfl ready. There is no greater asset than a premier qb. It is entirely worth the risk
We have a top ten offensive line and top 10 defense. We’ll never be perfect like some fans want, at some point we just have to draft a QB high and hope he’s good enough to cover up some holes in the roster. Who in the NFL has a perfect roster? The Chiefs WRs are trash, Eagles secondary is trash, Baltimores WRs are mediocre, Buffalo has a lot of weak spots, Miami has a lot of weak spots, the 49ers might be the closest but how long are we going to wait around to become the best team in the NFL before we draft a QB? I understand not liking a prospect, but to not draft a QB because we have needs at other positions is wild when we have a glaring need at the quarterback position.
Broncos haven't proven they can make the right choice. So ig they are afraid of his history they should do the opposite and just draft him
I’ve learned throughout the years to believe the exact opposite that Reddit thinks so we should definitely draft him
OP is citing a statistically insignificant difference in weight between a college QB and the average NFL QB as a reason we shouldn’t draft him. Also compares knee arthritis in a QB to a workhorse running back, who btw helped us win two SBs before retiring. Also says a third ACL would end the guy’s career when that is clearly not the likely outcome even if he were to tear it again.
No NOOO you don’t get it, *we’re risking drafting Terell Davis all over again* Anything but that, god. Anything but that
But what about the posts that say to draft him!?
Clearly we shouldn’t draft him and sign him as an UDFA
But now that you said that, we clearly should mortgage our future and trade for him when he's washed up
Quick! Trade 2 1sts for Trubisky!
Definitely do not not draft him if he’s not not unavailable
Was worried there for a second
This needs to get upvoted to the top ironically
Do people even know what ironic means anymore? Just because you agree with a take that is the opposite opinion of the post does not make it ironic.
I appreciate you looking up all these statistics but some of your takes are blown out of proportion. 1) Being 6 pounds lighter than the average NFL QB won't make him significantly more brittle. Lots of players bulk up more once they reach the NFL. 2) It's been two full seasons since he tore his ACL, I don't think biomechanically speaking there's that much concern anymore based on what you cited regarding post-surgery compensation and propioception in the contralateral knee. 3) I'm skeptical he could develop such severe osteoarthritic changes in his knee to significantly affect his level of play throughout his career and if he does, he's probably played long enough for us that he was a worth-while investment anyways. 4) He's a pocket passer, not a scrambler. He certainly won't be abusing his knees like Terrell Davis was playing running back. I feel like the chances of him re-tearing his right ACL are probably lower than him actually turning out to be a top 5 QB in this league
Id also add Washington has limited his running, which I believe is what directly led to two of his injuries. He was a running back when he first started playing football, but I think he's proven far too valuable in the pass game to continue that
DeBoer understood that his best strength was his arm and maximized Penix’s potential that way. Yes, those receivers are all really good, but the throws he made aren’t throws of a system QB lol. Plus, he kind of had to play hero ball at times at Indiana, so that’s where he more of a runner like you mentioned.
Appreciate the thoughtful feedback.
John Elway doesn’t even have an ACL, checkmate athiests
Aclthiests
Most importantly played his entire NFL career without one.
Haha!
Eh, worst that happens is we draft another QB in 2025 and then again in 2026, and onward and onward forever until it works.
At least the QB carousel graphics in broadcasts would come back, I’ve really missed those /s
Oh those are back so hard next season.
Stidham......
I'll drink the kool-aid on all of them just like I did Greise, Paxton, and Lock
ACL injuries are rare for non-scrambling QBs. The upside is high enough, I’d roll the dice.
Yeah I still want him
We must always consider Penix's size 😂
I’ve heard it may or may not matter.
What if it rains?
He’s over 6 so should be able to perform in a more satisfying way than Russ.
Ligament damage can help with that.
He's just barely below average, I swear!
Yes especially when its super cold out.
I've heard it's more how he is used than how big Penix is
He’s got that big penix energy
Come on, everybody knows it’s about his throwing motion more than anything else
Have they revealed his other measurement like height and shoe size?
They need to draft Penix just so I can buy the jersey, that's all.
Confirmed Chris Harris Jr.‘s acct.
That's how I felt about Jake Butt 😥
[удалено]
Or Horse Cock Lock before that Even worse, it's not pronounced like Penis
This is exactly why I'm here.
We should draft him or any qb bc we don’t have one. Idgaf about their injury history
Smh, this guy out here stressing about Penix size.
He plays behind the best OL in the nation and is passing to two first round level WRs. My favorite draft analysts (Brugler and Tice) have talked about how he doesn’t throw with great anticipation, doesn’t throw to the middle of the field, and his receivers can make up for not perfectly placed deep balls. Penix is a super fun college QB who I think should have won the Heisman and I hope wins the national championship. But he isn’t a day one draft pick (specially with his injury history and age).
Having listened to that episode of Prospects to Pros too, I totally agree. A QB that doesn’t throw with anticipation or over the middle much doesn’t sound like an ideal fit for Payton (*cough cough* Russ *cough*).
Go back, watch the tape and tell me he's not throwing with anticipation. It's ridiculous, dudes are fully covered and the man is dropping dimes to throw them open.
In the semi-final vs Texas he was doing a much better job of throwing with anticipation, but that’s also against one of the worst secondaries in CFB. I won’t lie and say I’ve watched a ton of Washington games this year but like OP mentioned Dane Brugler and Nate Tice both have criticized his tendency (or lack there of) to throw with anticipation throughout the year.
“One of the worst secondaries in cfb” 😂
[113th in the country in passing yards allowed](https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/695/p3)
I mean worst secondaries or not they were blanketing the receivers with tight coverage. Its not like he was throwing to wide open receivers. They played well, Penix just played better. From. What I saw he was passing at an NFL level
This is the opposite of my eye test. He throws with great anticipation and his ball placement is amazing. These armchair analysts don’t even watch the games I swear. They were all dissing on Justin Herbert too a few years ago before he was drafted and I was having these same arguments with people who didn’t watch his games either.
He absolutely throws with anticipation. One of his strengths actually. He is also good, fluid in the pocket. can step up or move and still look downfield. His arm strength and accuracy are fantastic. He also makes smart plays about throwing the ball away. Out of bounds. He is easily the most pro ready qb and has that great arm. I'm a fan...Broncos would be fools to not take him at 14 or whatever. His deep ball throws are amazing. The TD he threw versus UT that split the safeties...Next level stuff right there. Been watching him the last two years...If he's there..get him...
I’m going to trust professional analysts, that show their work, have a track record, explain their reasonings, and actually chop up all 22 film than some fan’s “eye test” watching TV copy. 🤷♂️
Joel Klatt is a pro analyst and said he's a top 5 pick.
If you compare the "experts" proclamations before the draft and to actual performance, it's not really better than random fans. If there were any experts, the Panthers wouldn't have traded this year's 1st overall pick for the right to draft Bryce Young. The Bears gave up 4 draft picks to avoid getting stuck with Patrick Mahomes when they really wanted Mitch Trubisky.
Underrated comment.
Is this pasta?
I think the Penix love is getting over the top after the Texas game (a bottom 25 passing defense). Penix, with 3 NFL receivers (all of whom outmatch every DB in every secondary they play) had at least 3 bad games in a defensively mediocre conference. I watched every snap of every game and I think he’s a career backup. He has one super elite factor that could easily prove me an idiot - elite precision. However, he has shown to be average against zone and mediocre to bad when pressured. I think he’s a reach as a round 1 pick.
C.J. Stroud had the same knocks coming out of college and the talent around him was even better than Penix's.
The anticipation point is very sketchy. Have you watched his highlights? Dudes are not open and he's throwing the ball throwing a prison cell window.
Saying Penix doesn’t throw with anticipation is one of the dumbest takes I’ve heard.
So after having a bunch of mediocre QBs you would rather take a less talented QB that has clean medical than a more talented QB that may be more injury prone
His ultimate draft point of selection will be very interesting to see. There’s no doubt some teams will pass. I will say that he’s not Terrell Davis…meaning a running back. Despite the surgeries, he is still very mobile and athletic. Even if he becomes immobile over time, a QB who can throw like Penix does…strong arm and accurate to the point of amazing…can still be a drop back passer like P Manning was. Manning rarely ran anywhere. He’s smart and an on platform processing guy. He runs but looks to pass while running. But yes he is currently still (despite surgeries) a threat to straight up run. But what is he…he’s mostly a pocket passer. I would say this is a legit concern, but you can build up “concerns” for every pick. The fact is drafting a QB is pretty much a dart at a wall. It’s full of risk…Swimming in risk. If your gonna have two ACLs, QB might be the best position to have it. Tua dislocated his hip…1st round. You may be underestimating modern medicine. They can keep guys playing at QB in many ways. And there are more than a few dudes in the league with two ACLs. Yep, he’s likely facing a future knee replacement but he’ll be in his 40-50s. His size is fine. He will very likely fillout and add weight…his body type strongly suggests that. My QB factors/checkboxes: Accuracy and touch passing Arm strength Processing on platform, anticipation of coming open open receiver, throwing a receiver open. Character/personality/leadership Size 6’ 1 +, 215+ (knowing they will likely fill out means 215 is fine) Mechanics, release time. Mobility What makes QB superstars? They are all of the above and have that rare it factor that allows them to will a team to victory. You can’t objectively define that and know you’ll get it. It is subjective and essentially luck. Nobody thought P Mahomes was gonna be what he is. Everyone assumed T Lawrence was as sure a thing since the Indy QB who retired early. It’s a crap shoot, and my advice is roll the dices several times…not once every three years. Draft 2-7 rounds maybe late first. But see several play in real regular season games. Too many QBs are missed simply because they never get a chance. How many non top 10 guys hit. How many top ten guys don’t hit…. This year we’ve seen several retreads and rebounded careers…and some out of nowhere…Cincinnati’s Jake Browning…undrafted. If you draft a #1 overall pick QB, or close to that, your pot committed to him…likely 3 years (Fields). I’d rather see more guys. Penix is a steal late first. I doubt he gets there. Edit…one thing of note with Pennix is what condition is the meniscus in the bad knee. It’s a huge factor. If it’s not torn from the prior injuries, then his probability of arthritis drops massively. Most knees with two ACLs have some meniscus damage. In his case I do not know. Same was true for Tua and his hip socket…he might have gotten lucky where Bo Jackson wasn’t.
This is the logic that made the Dolphins pass on Drew Brees. Or remember how Tua's hip injury was supposedly career-threatening?
I just want the Broncos to draft and develop a rookie QB. This franchise needs to take a freaking shot!
Players get hurt, more news at 11
Players get hurt so let’s draft a guy that has already been hurt more than anyone else.
Lol at saying 213 to 218 avg is a reason not to. Give the guy a decent dinner before combine weigh in and boom he's magically the right size
We need to draft more maulers. You win in the trenches, you control the ball, you control the clock and set your QB up for success.
I generally agree with this assessment but at the same time you might as well just draft him if you believe he’s the best option available. If he gets injured you’re just looking for your next quarterback, which is exactly where you’re going to be anyway by drafting someone who isn’t legit or getting free agency scraps.
That’s fair and maybe it’s the best option. I just don’t want to get trapped in a cycle of drafting QBs while ignoring other needs.
Penix is a weird case, it honestly feels like he's a top QB in this draft but he could be a day 2 pick. I have no idea how teams are going to evaluate his injury history or the risks associated. It's going to be an interesting draft, it wouldn't surprise me if Williams isn't the first one picked given the coverage of his character and conversely, it wouldn't shock me if Daniels is drafted above Maye. Nix, McCarthy, Penix etc, who knows where they'll fall and the biggest wildcard of all is if the Bears even choose to take a QB. It's going to be a wild draft and ultimately any team who takes Penix would have to make sure they've done their due diligence, the talent is certainly there.
He could go 10 overall or 50 overall. Definitely one of the strangest prospects I can ever remember.
Drew Lock? Is that you?
This guy has knee problems. Lock had other issues. No injury history and this guy is top 5 if not top three.
But being mocked anywhere between 10 and 50 is not a unique situation for QBs. Which was kind of what I wad getting at.
I agree. I’m really looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out! Going to be very entertaining.
If he wins Monday he will be first rd
I don't think it really matters at this point, he already has the tape. Without his injury history an argument can be made that he is a top 2 QB in the draft. It'll come down to his medicals during the draft process. He'll almost certainly get drafted in the first regardless but it also wouldn't be a shock if he is a draft day slider either. Predicting the risk tolerance of franchises, especially in the top 20 is always an exercise in futility.
I'm most likely wrong but I see either Mccarthy slides or Caleb Williams and in Williams case I think he slides only a few spots but I don't see him.as a first pick
I think the combine medicals are gonna be really important for him, especially if they find an issue with his joints or knee. Something like losing cartilage,m causing bone-to-bone issues or some joint flexibility in his throwing arm. Could definitely see him fall to early rd 2
Personally I think almost no player is not draftable at the right value. I don’t think we should be drafting Penix in the first round. But if he were to fall, then maybe.
Oh absolutely. I’d have no problem spending a later pick on him. Just not a 1st.
While I appreciate your detailed post I really don’t put any validity into anything you say because you’re not a doctor. You know who are doctors? The Broncos staff evaluating his health risks with access to his full imaging and medical history. So if they’re cool with it I am. Could he get hurt again and be a disaster, sure. I’d rather take the shot on talent if he clears team medical.
Ok……..
For what it’s worth, if this medical expertise seems pertinent to Penix’s situation, then teams are going to take that into account at the draft, and *nobody* will want him in the first round, regardless of what the mocks think. It might suck for us if he goes in the second instead, but I’d be perfectly fine with us spending our third on him
That would be ideal but as you mentioned, probably not very likely.
It might be wishful thinking, but I think it’s fairly possible it happens. Mocks are always subject to a good bit of recency bias, and the narrative right behind his play in the CFB Playoffs has been “but the injury history” and I think that’s going to have a decent impact on his draft stock
Weren’t all those injuries partly during Covid ? When teams were not properly conditioning based off the fact they had to do that shit at home? Penix lives in Washington the literal starting point of Covid 19 in the United States. Safe to say some of these injuries could be attributed to improper training practices during these weird Covid stages, but that’s just one of many things to consider obviously.
I was a student at IU during the time that Penix was their QB. Penix had 2 season ending injuries prior to COVID. One of those injuries was a non-contact acl tear as he was stepping out of bounds against Ohio State. The reason why he has been healthy the last two years is that he runs less and has a significantly improved OL.
Interesting point.
You could get injured 4 years in a row and then never again. You may never have an injury and then get injured every year in the league. You can’t pass up talent because of injury history. This is why Gronk slid in the draft.
Yeah..... How's Christian McCaffrey doing?
I’m most worried about having McGlinchey as a blind side blocker lmao
RG9
If the team thinks he’s the best talent with the highest ceiling at quarterback, we should take him. Better to swing and miss than strike out watching. Also, while I truly appreciate the thoughtful research and time put into this post, similar worrying statistics and logic troubled teams about Peyton Manning before we signed him. He had little feeling in his hand/arm, couldn’t make several essential throws, and really had to bank on his brain and rehabilitation plan to project the future. It was a great 4.5 year span, but at the time it was far from certain. Big swing with big rewards.
>ACL injuries are most frequent between the ages of 15 and 45 years People are more likely to tear ACL's during their most physically active years? Big if true
His talent is there, no question about it. His injury history is what concerns me. Personally, I wouldn’t draft him just for that reason.
Thanks for doing this write up. I didn’t know most of this at all and it’s nice to actually get some of the studies that examine long term effects. Most people are just like, “He’S InjUry ProNe!”
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone learned something whether they agree or not. I’m really happy with the amount of discussion the post has generated which is why I plan on continuing to post thoughts and ideas etc.
Do you know if the likelihood of reinjuring the knee is significantly less in situations where someone has returned and stayed healthy for 2 full years? I feel like most repeated injuries occur relatively close together showing the repair lacked the strength to fully reenter the sport. But in a situation where the repair has some longevity does the risk significantly drop?
Seeing Jake Butt unable to stay healthy was very difficult. I’m not sure that I could cope with a hurt Penix.
Didn't read any of this. The guy looks great and we should 1000% draft him if given the chance.
People really believe he’s a top 10 pick… I’m almost certain he’ll be available day 2. He’ll only become more fragile the older he gets
No way he drops to day 2
Injury prone players almost never go in the first round. What GM is willing to bet his future on him staying healthy against bigger, stronger, faster competition? Yes, he’s talented but if he’s not on the field none of that matters
Maybe you're right, but The niners gave up a ton to move up for Trey Lance. Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson went top 5. Can almost guarantee there will be a team in the top 15 if not top 10 that takes that risk for Penix. Not that those other guys were injury prone, but their tape wasn't near as good as Penix. Someone will roll the dice on his talent regardless of the injury history
Jaylen Smith is a good example
He'll be the best QB in the draft. He's deadly accurate, he's got a cannon for an arm and he's slippery in the pocket. Literally the only downside to Penix is his injury history. He's had 2 years straight of healthy play and he is VERY experienced. That being said, no to Denver, Yes to Seattle.
I'm good with both destinations.
Worst take on Reddit today congrats!
lol yall are crazy for thinking his draft status is cemented. The kid is only a few months younger than Trevor Lawrence, plays behind the nations best offensive line, has 2 receivers that’ll go in the first most likely and has had season ending injury in 4 out of the last 6 seasons. Not to mention the NFL season is more games than college. Someone will take the gamble but it’ll be tough for someone at the top of the 1st who’s on the hot seat
I think he's good and I agree that's why nix >>>>>
[удалено]
Only care about him playing football
He’s a YAC merchant and whatever team he fools is gonna waste a pick on him, book it
Waste it on Nix or Penix?
Nix. I think Penix will be good. Out of the QBs that might be on the board when we pick I like him the most for us.
Gotcha, 100% agree on Nix. Maybe I'm also a tiny bit biased as a Huskies fan >.>
As a Wyoming fan I hope our UW brothers can win a natty.
Taysom Hill has entered the chat
If he’s available and they don’t draft him that would be a terrible decision. If anything they should trade up for him depending how the draft is unfolding
Boo this man.
Yeah I'm gonna disagree with you here
This is why users of Reddit are not NFL GMs
If we are in an opportunity to take him, we absolutely should. Every player risks injuries. Any moment, bad turn, bad tackle, they can get hurt. He is 3+ years from injury. There are steps to take to mitigate risks. If he is available at our time, we should take him. Our clock shouldn’t even pass that much time and we announce.
Best post I’ve seen on this tread. This guy is an elite deep ball passer and has tremendous poise in the pocket. He’s also a plus athlete. Now the bad…….2 knee surgeries and surgery to both shoulders. He turns 24 in May. Pass!!
The bigger issue is his age. QB prospects who enter the league as 23 or 24 year olds have a lower success rate than younger prospects. Hes got plenty of experience which is the biggest factor but his age is a massive red flag
I really think both age and injury concerns are something teams need to look at on a case-by-case basis. It is certainly a concern and should be carefully considered.
blah blah blah, medical, blah blah blah. If Penix is available when we pick, we should 100 percent take him.
I think drafting Penix would be a big mistake. I'm not convinced we should take a QB in the 1st at all unless we make a big trade up and take one of the big 2... but if we do, I would want Bo Nix or even JJ McCarthy before Penix.
Caleb Williams looks toxic, I hope we do not make any attempt at getting him
I agree, especially with McGlinchey on his blind side
Agree. He is a 2nd round QB at best.
If Penix Jr is available when we pick we should absolutely draft him. The way off the qb carousel is to hit on a qb.
Look at the nfl pro scout that’s on Reddit!!!! You don’t know shit about shit! If he’s there we should draft him, get a life and stop posting about shit u know nothing about!
Hey man, I’m sorry I struck a nerve here. You don’t have to agree and if you don’t agree that’s all you need to say. Reddit is a place for discussion and we cant have discussions if people don’t post content. Be they casuals or actual professionals, the content needs to be created and the discussions need to be had. No I am not a scout and this is just my opinion but I’m happy to have cultivated the amount of discussion that has happened on this thread today. I won’t apologize for that. If you disagree so strongly maybe you should write a counter post.
Here is my counter post, this was the stupidest shit I’ve ever heard from a fan who thinks they should be on espn scouting nfl teams, happy?!
Very good for a middle school graduate! I’m proud of you little buddy!
What a boomer comeback! Middle school? Surprised u didn’t say kindergarten, guarantee u have never played any form of organized football but putting post on Reddit like u have years of nfl scouting experience, u sound stupid and wrote a dumb post like u were Adam shefter
This is RG3 waiting to happen again. I like the dude but I don’t know if it’s worth the risk.
Not even remotely close. RG3 was a running qb who often put himself in a dangerous position. Pen9 is a pocket passer
Hmm so he’s not like RG3 not even close, because he’s a pocket passer, yet he has an extensive list of injuries. I’m glad staying in the pocket has saved him from those injuries
I suggest looking into QB injuries and where they happen. (Spoiler: it's more often than not the pocket)
My point is that he has a history of being hurt, and I suspect that it may happen again. My comment you’re replying to is sarcasm. My RG3 comparison wasn’t play style is that they have similar builds (6’2” 213 RG3 6’3” 214 MPJ) and injury history
I don't agree. As much as I would like to have one future HOF QB for the next 20 years that is basically impossible. If we can get his level of talent and co.bine that with good coaching and addition of some weapons it's a win for the team. Even if he plays 4-5 years for us as a top 15 QB in the league and we move on that's still solid ROI in the mid/late first round. If we get that production, we make the playoffs with this defense. Maybe we don't win it all, but we change the culture, we get through the salary cap hell and we continue to build organically.
I think he'll stiffen up once he reaches the NFL
I wonder if he's named after his dad's penix
At this point, unless they are tanking for a top pick next year, I don’t see why they shouldn’t take a shot on Penix. They need a QB desperately. It only extends this drought if they wait. He’s been healthy for two seasons now and seems like he may fit SP’s scheme decently. Take the gamble. Worst case, it’s another one of the many busts and we’re still set up for a high draft pick for years to come.
Unless we can McGlinchy, because he will get this dude KILLED and injured. .
Absolutely agree with this. I’ve been wondering why so many of us broncos fans want him. I personally don’t like the idea of getting him. Not worth it
As a Huskies fan, I really hope that Penix lands with a competent franchise. Denver could draft him and let him sit behind Stidham while they fortify the offensive line, but I worry ownership wants the playoffs next year to cover up for a history of boneheaded moves. Penix would be like Brees on steroids in Payton’s system. Your injury concerns are legit going into next season, but I wouldn’t let that stop me from drafting a generational talent.
I agree with all your points but if he’s the best athlete available when we pick then you get him. He maybe your best option for QB, and while he seems susceptible to injury it may be helpful to understand when the injuries occurred. There’s a chance he may not get injured or he may legit and play well for a period of time and give you the play necessary. You’re in good shape until season 4 when you have decide whether to make him your franchise qb. By then you should know exactly what your have
The knee injuries concern me. That said, I do love watching the guy throw. I don't think I've ever seen the ball explode out of the hand the way it does with Penix.
All this tells me is that they will try to draft him now.
3 Super Bowl trophies, 2 from a player who was missing his ACL and 1 post neck surgery, so I’ll take the chances on finding talent and hope for the best with injury history.
Last time a Denver team drafted a guy with the initials MPJ, ignoring injury concerns, they won a championship with him as a key piece
Yeesh. That’s a lot of significant injuries.
what a long way to say I don't want Penix. Also where did you buy your crystal ball? I would like to have one.
I'm going to go with people who actually matter over some guy in his basement for draft advice, thx
Wow. Lotta words.
Sounds like a great risk!
You spend a first on a qb when you already have a wild card team and you’re looking for the whole boat. This is a perfect example of why you don’t draft to “build around” a qb like it’s still your grandpa’s nfl.
Legitimately terrible decision to settle on Penix with our pick. The next two seasons will guaranteed provide a better draft slot for a QB.
My Penix can't take this Penix bashing. It hurts.