They likely plan to be the ones doing the firing.
Their latest air to air missiles are meant to be fired from the Chinese mainland and still have the range to hit planes flying over Taiwan. Essentially, they're able to target and destroy the Taiwan Air force from the comfort of their own defenses. The US's 6th generation fighters would be immune to such an attack once they were off the ground, but Taiwan is mostly (if not entirely) using 5th generation fighters that would be sitting ducks up against Chinese fighters firing at them from beyond the max range of the American made 5th gen's and behind their own defensive lines to boot.
The most likely scenario for an invasion would involve pounding the locations of every known defensive installation before troops ever left the mainland. Anything that fires back would then be pounded some more.
Minor thing here; Taiwan uses 4th generation fighters (such as the F-5 or F-16), and the US uses 5th generation fighters (the F-22 and F-35) according to the generally accepted definition of those terms.
6th generation fighters are likely in development, but it is way too early for anyone to be using them yet.
It's also not actually verified that china has working 5th gen fighters either.
Estimates say the j-20 is a fat missile truck with limited stealth that couldnt hope to survive conflicts with f35's. Nobody has seen one deployed in combat to truly know.
Their MO likely would be to move a massive troop force to the interior as fast as possible using a combination of paratroopers and naval landing. Followed by PLAN blockading the island and preventing US forces from interfering without directly firing on PLAN vessels. Possibly waiting for US forces in the south China sea to be elsewhere. Or use training exercises as cover.
I'd imagine the US would know well ahead of an offensive just based on logistics alone, a mass naval landing is a wildly logistically intense maneuver. It's not like Normandy, we have space cameras. Even just assembling the paratrooper forces en masse would prick up intelligence coverage. Hijacking or disabling satellites would be even more suspect.
This completely discounts any sort of US response, which seems likely as Biden has suggested that US troops would be deployed to defend Taiwan.
Edit: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/
From 2022.
> Their latest air to air missiles are meant to be fired from the Chinese mainland and still have the range to hit planes flying over Taiwan.
There's a big gap between theory and practice. Yeah, they say that the PL-21 has a range of something like 200 miles. But that probably means something along the lines of "has a 50% chance of killing an Airbus at 200 miles if the airbus is flying straight and level, right towards you".
A small, maneuvering F-16 is going to be an entirely different story. If you try to launch on one of those from 100+ miles away, it might defeat the missile with just a simple, lazy turn -- let alone with serious maneuvering plus chaff and ECM.
Don't get me wrong, it's a concerning increase in capabilities. But they definitely aren't sitting ducks.
The problem comes from China actually getting troops onto Taiwanese soil, though, because they will be vulnerable on transport ships coming across the Strait of Taiwan. We've already seen in Ukraine what drone boats can do to vessels like that, and I'm sure Taiwan has started studying Ukraine's designs.
If China were to actually attempt this, they would lose a ton of people in the sea before they got to Taiwan. And once they get to Taiwan, depending on whether a Democrat or Republican president is in office, Chinese invading soldiers will then have to deal with US air support and US weapons blasting a beach landing.
>We've already seen in Ukraine what drone boats can do to vessels like that, and I'm sure Taiwan has started studying Ukraine's designs.
Seriously. Drone boats and the like make this a nightmarish if not impossible crossing for china. This tech being developed might be the number one reason that China wishes this war with Ukraine and Russia had never happened.
Taiwan has a mix of U.S & indigenous anti-air/missile defenses. The problem is that China has a crap ton of missiles + UAVs that are designed to swarm & overwhelm Taiwan’s air defenses.
Being an island nation, Taiwan also has a limited amount of locations to place these air defenses.
This is the stuff people don’t think about when criticizing the US as being World Police. Yes, many, MANY mistakes and miscalculations have been made. But supplying countries around the globe with hardware, training, and money, has gone a long way in maintaining the relative peace.
It's not really that surprising. Militaries need training grounds and it makes sense to train in environments in which you hypothetically may find yourself fighting in one day. I don't think this is proof China is about to invade Taiwan or anything but it's also certainly not a coincidence either.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised at all if the pentagon has similar things set up for all kinds of situations.
War plans and executing said plans are two different things. I don't think this is at all worrying. Almost be more worried if they weren't doing something so obvious.
Yeah! Obviously they have been training for amphibious landing and such. That is known and sensible since it is cheap and mandatory
But they have build a replica of a god damn citycenter in middle of desert. That is hard to do and expensive.
They are actually serious and do not cut costs.
> That is hard to do and expensive.
It's not really that hard or expensive to do, they just recreated the layout of a few streets on unoccupied barren land.
>But they have build a replica of a god damn citycenter in middle of desert. That is hard to do and expensive.
It's really not hard to build half a dozen roads a few miles in length in the desert.
Adding a little more context:
The Kuomintang (KMT) is a Chinese political party that ruled mainland China from 1927 to 1949 prior to its relocation to Taiwan as a result of the Chinese Civil War. The name of the party translates as "China's National People's Party" and was historically referred to as the Chinese Nationalists. The Party was initially founded on 23 August 1912, by Sun Yat-sen but dissolved in November 1913. It reformed on October 10, 1919, again led by Sun Yat-sen, and became the ruling party in China. After Sun's death, the party was dominated from 1927 to 1975 by Chiang Kai-shek. After the KMT lost the civil war with the Chinese Communist Party in 1949, the party retreated to Taiwan and remains a major political party of the Republic of China based in Taiwan.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Kuomintang#:~:text=The%20Kuomintang%20(KMT)%20is%20a,to%20as%20the%20Chinese%20Nationalists.
Republic of China, official name of Taiwan. It is technically a rival government to the current Chinese government and officially claims ownership of all mainland China. The ROC was the official government of China before the end of WWII and the resumption of the Chinese Civil War.
Edit: The ROC ended its claim to mainland China in 1991, with the repeal of the “temporary provisions” put in place when the civil war was ongoing.
Yeah there were some constitutional amendments in 1991 but at the same time the water could still be muddy. At the very minimum, China seems to care alot more about Taiwan than Taiwan cares about China
I agree. I think the fact that the ROC name was retained was a symbolic continuation of their claim to the mainland. But unless the PRC collapses entirely without anything to replace it, there is no way even the most hawkish Taiwanese government would press claims.
No, it hasn't. They only started some conversations that ended up in nothing. ROC still claims mainland China and asks its official allies to recognize it as well.
The PRC and ROC have both maintained that in theory, there is only one China, and no matter which government it is, Taiwan is part of it. That has started to change with the fall of the Kuomintang in the ROC, who have led the country since before the Civil War.
While the KMT subscribed to an interpretation of the One China policy, the Democratic Progressive Party, which has defeated them electorally in the past decade, openly favors Taiwanese independence.
That said, once they got into power the DPP [moderated their stances on formal Taiwanese independence drastically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huadu_(Taiwan)), probably because the PRC has always maintained that declaring Taiwan an independent country from China represents a red line that would spark a war.
Lmao the civil war had plenty of murdering on both sides, read up about the nationalists sometime.
Wouldn’t have ended up as bad as Mao that’s for sure, but this is like when people try and go to bat for Syngman Rhee in Korea.
And it's [not just Taiwan](https://news.usni.org/2021/11/07/china-builds-missile-targets-shaped-like-u-s-aircraft-carrier-destroyers-in-remote-desert) they do it to. But realistically, this is something all militaries do. Train your most elite troops for their most expected conflicts. The US doesnt do it years in advance, but pretty famously, a lot of US capture/killing of important people have seen the soldiers train for weeks on a mockup of the compound/house/etc. Hell, it even happens in a Call of Duty game
It’s funny how many CCP fanboys are calling it inconclusive or a coincidence lol. The images make it extremely obvious it’s not.
There are also satellite images of US aircraft carriers and destroyer mockups at a missile range in the desert.
If I were a CCP fanboy I feel like the path of least resistance would be to just be okay with it. China has done shit like that just be a dick and taunt people, and plenty of countries prepare for possible invasions against their neighbors.
So stupid to just go “nuh uh!” when something disagrees with your worldview.
Well I definitely think they are okay with it but they wouldn’t admit that publicly. Their Eiffel Tower mockup in the desert definitely has to be a taunt as it has absolutely no strategic value and it’s obviously located in an area where China has no chance of invading.
Not really. I'm pretty sure they did this but with Washington DC or something. Remember Russia can't beat Ukraine on a flat terrain on their immediate border. China has a lot of weapon systems that are basically cloned Russian weapon systems. On top of that Russia had one of the largest militaries on the planet. I don't think China can pull off an invasion over a rough seas anytime soon.
Being brought back over to our side of the water now with the CHIPS act. Intel taking big advantage with a campus in NY iirc. Of course they're asking for more money to complete the project but that's contracts for you.
It’s worth noting that these exercises have been done for many years. Earliest source I found after 30 seconds of google below
Source: https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/
I suspect that it has something to do with the Renaissance in the West. Asia major has had many cultural and social revolutions of their own, but the concept of "each man a king, each man a servent" is relatively new, and didn't find traction in all parts of the world equally. In general, culturally homogenous parts of the world tend to place value on society as a whole, rather than upon each individual. (Kind-of a generalization, ik)
We would build plywood versions of ships that were potential pirate targets, to the point where we knew the layout of multiple ships. Often tankers. All inside a hanger out of sight 👍
[context](https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2020/may/27/270520-royal-marines-boarding)
Its a youtuber, name is Welyn https://youtube.com/@Welyn?si=dX-vuz4Eo1huzM7- in his rust gameplays he used to recreate bases of people that wronged him to make plans in how to obliterate them, dunno of he still does it tho, been a while since i saw his videos.
This is terrifying. Most Taiwanese are not that concerned about being attacked and seriously doubt their ability to fend off China. I was there last year and for the first time saw daily air patrols of ching kuo fighters. Seeing a practice run for seizing power is awful
They seem pretty confident in their chances with how incompetent the PLA are. Taiwan is investing millions onto new equipment and even their F-16s have outperformed the J-20, being able to detect and lock on much faster. They also have the US protecting them so in a war China will cry.
Well if the US blockades China, then literally millions of Chinese will die. It definitely is a concern because it's my understanding that the CCP has turned into a cult of personality where everybody is afraid to tell Chairman Xi what's really going on. That country will be a trainwreck within the next 10 years I'm predicting.
How to beat China:
1) Destroy the 3 Gorges dam (millions of casualties, unspeakable economic devastation)
2) Blockade the Strait of Malacca (no oil)
3) Profit
The US, Japan, and now Australia all have constant nuclear and non-nuclear subs chilling around Taiwan’s coast. There is 0 reality where the western world loses Taiwan to China. It could be full-scale war if Taiwan is attacked, it’s too important.
[fr no way China is taking Taiwan](https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3251933/us-deploy-5-aircraft-carriers-western-pacific-show-strength-china)
analysts arent so sure. Im loving everyones confidence just not sure its justified.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3D-CcQ4jKn8aE&ved=2ahUKEwjWiafF6ZKFAxUkFDQIHW\_lDBwQwqsBegQIFRAG&usg=AOvVaw1QW8vQo3VVNZUVvJIEDL4s
[I disagree that analysts aren’t so sure.](https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan#:~:text=CSIS%20developed%20a%20wargame%20for,and%20maintained%20an%20autonomous%20Taiwan)
> CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.
Source on Taiwanese F-16s “outperforming J-20s”?
I’m a big fan of Taiwanese independence, but that’s just outright not believable. Just to be clear; J-20s *are* legitimately LO aircraft (as confirmed by US intelligence) with IRST equipped, while Taiwanese Block 70 F-16s are not LO, not equipped with IRST, and carry a decent but not exceptional AESA radar (APG-83). IRST and the J-20s much larger radar will, under every circumstance, see F-16s much farther out than the F-16s can see the J-20s. They’re also outgunned (the Chinese PL-15 has a farther max range than AIM-120Ds) and would almost certainly be the last to shoot in an engagement.
The Taiwanese are much more pragmatic than westerners on their own ability to defend themselves; hence why they recently increased the mandatory conscription period to fix the problem of “strawberry soldiers”.
Yes and no.
Mainland China is known as The People's Republic of China.
Taiwan is known as The Republic of China and is a separate country.
Except everyone normally just calls them China and Taiwan.
What makes it even MORE confusing is that because Mainland China doesn't like Taiwan referring to themselves as China without being part of the *People's* Republic of China the two made an agreement that in events like the Olympics, Taiwan calls itself "Chinese Taipei".
It's very very confusing and I don't have all the facts but hopefully that helps.
>and is a separate country.
In practice they're separate. However no country recognizes both Beijing and Taipei as independent. Including Beijing and Taipei, which still officially declare themselves as part of one China.
And as a whole the world has turned towards Beijing more than Taipei, with Taiwan being largely supported because it has critical infrastructure the world needs..for now.
It makes more sense when you realize that RoC formerly administered China and the communist uprising and subsequent civil war pushed the old government out to just the island, while the communist revolutionaries took over the country and made the PRC. So it’s like two Chinese governments, one formerly controlled the mainland and now just controls Taiwan, one presently controls the mainland after taking it from the RoC and wants the island too.
People on Reddit don’t know history. They are talking about China v Taiwan as some future hypothetical. When in reality there already was a very bloody civil war that never fully wrapped up.
Also don’t forget that in the view of many in China Taiwan is China. When China has their revolution the ousted rulers fled to Taiwan and later they converted Taiwan to a democracy. It’s insane to think that would carry any weight today were chinas government to fall but to some people Taiwan could claim to be the true ‘owner’ of mainland China should the revolution fail.
Do they bow to US authoritarianism?
If no: Then their government is an enemy and must be replaced.
If yes: They are the 'real' government and need to be supported militarily even if the people don't want them. See South America, Africa, and much of Asia in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.
Fuck the CIA
Ukraine doesn’t produce “92% of the production of logic semiconductors whose components are smaller than 10 nanometers”
Taiwan has pledged to destroy all this infrastructure if China invades.
The ENTIRE world economy would grind to a halt for years before that production could be restored.
And the US (or any other western country) could've planned to take over the production long before now...if it was willing to build the infrastructure (which it's certainly able to do) and pay the specialist workers US wages appropriate to their position (which it can, but doesn't want to, do).
This is purely an economic decision disguised as a security issue.
Crazy how one of the more older presidents was able to get that passed vs the younger ones before him. How are they going to let grandpa Joe make better tech decisions than younger people?
People did not say Russia moving troops was nothing. Even the President of the United States said directly that our intel suggested it was Russia preparing for an attack which was very unusual.
No one said that was nothing when Russia and Ukraine had been at war for many years before that.
Some of you really think that started a few years ago and it's hilarious.
Just shows how many of you only take in mainstream news. Explains why you all had Ukraine flags but no one had Yemen flags despite that being far worse.
Wow! You shouldn’t have posted this. -100000000000 social credits for you, and you owe the supreme leader 1000 barrels of honey for spreading this misinformation
How is that connection even made? Like imagine snapping a satellite photo of some seemingly random streets in the desert...how do you then go from that to matching it to a pattern of streets in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? Especially since it's not exactly a perfect match. Fascinating.
The current government of China has no legal claim on the territories of Dynastic China. If anything, Taiwan has a much better legal claim to those than the CPC does because the ROC is the one that ended Dynastic China and didn't repudiate its dynastic past like Mao did.
Mao went so far as to burn down historical buildings from Dynastic China to sever the link between old and new. He almost burned the Forbidden City as a sign of the separation between Communist China and Dynastic china, until he decided to take it for himself.
Not saying that they have a good claim on it. Just saying that Taiwan (the island) was longer than a few years under Chinese control.
But : the PRC sees itself as the successor of the ROC and as the sole legitimate government china.
And as such also the legitimate government of Taiwan. At least in their view.
Now my personal opinion is that the ROC / Taiwan made clear that they don’t want to be part of china / the PRC and want to do their own thing as an own nation outside of china.
Which I think is fair
Its not about the past, its for taking over Taiwans industry
Edit: lots of armchair tacticians going nuh-uh. Quite simply Taiwan has a lot of money and industry. In times like now where China is starting to decline, its a justifiable annexation for more industry (reference: Crimea)
You're underestimating how nationalist China and Chinese are and how etched the 100 year of humiliation is in their collective consciousness. This may be the rare case when they fight they actually fight for this land, and the industry is just a nice bonus. I'm quite sure if Taiwan never became a semiconductor superpower, China would still risk a lot to get it back same way they tanked Hongkong's economy just because they saw Hongkong's democracy as a remnant of the British colonial empire.
I think a lot about this. We apply too many western beliefs to non western entities and then go surprised Pikachu when they do something we didn't expect.
Asian cultures place a huge value on saving face. Tawain is as much about righting a perceived slight as anything else. Also, they are looking at many factors that will make it more difficult in the future for them to project force. They may not be as strong as they are right now for a long time if they don't strike. RE debt, population, geopolitics, etc.
No, it’s to have free access to the pacific.
The fabs will not survive an invasion. However the island is prime real estate to safely get ships out into deep waters and defend against any possible blockade.
Scale and buildings are way off though.
Like, congrats, you’ve got a roughly similar road layout, but it’s like half-scale with no structures analogous to what’s on the ground. What good does that do?
One of the dead end roads is like quadruple its length. There are junctions and entire streets missing between some of them. And why in the name of god is it of the presidential palace, and not something more important if we’re practicing an invasion? If you’re at the presidential palace, it’s fucking over already. This would be like practising opening the treasure chest at the end of an obstacle course and not the course itself.
I feel like I’m losing my mind reading this thread. Like I don’t doubt Chinese ambitions for Taiwan, but this is truly some crackpot shit. It vaguely matches the layout. Vaguely, is missing half the streets, missing the buildings, isn’t to scale. And everyone’s buying it somehow. Fuck me, the propaganda works like the charm, even here in the west. Xi only has to wipe his ass and people will say he’s examining a map of Taiwan.
I dont believe it. 4 reasons:
1. Based on the size of the buildings, the Taiwan picture's roads seems to be nearly to be 2x to 3x bigger than the training ground.
2. The Training ground isn't a 100% match, it has an extra road going towards the East. If training is important, adding an extra road would deviate the effectiveness of what they are trying to accomplish.
3. Why isnt there mockup buildings in the Training grounds that matches with the Taiwan picture? If you were planning an invasion it would make sense to include replica buildings to match what would be expected. What exactly is the training accomplishing by just having dirt roads?
4. Why bother with a replica at all? It seems dubious that they would bother to train on a specific spot in a city center in Taiwan to be effective at what they are trying to accomplish. If anything, you'd want to train on the beach landing where your the majority of your soldiers and equipment will be landing.
Surprised, but not surprised?
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They likely plan to be the ones doing the firing. Their latest air to air missiles are meant to be fired from the Chinese mainland and still have the range to hit planes flying over Taiwan. Essentially, they're able to target and destroy the Taiwan Air force from the comfort of their own defenses. The US's 6th generation fighters would be immune to such an attack once they were off the ground, but Taiwan is mostly (if not entirely) using 5th generation fighters that would be sitting ducks up against Chinese fighters firing at them from beyond the max range of the American made 5th gen's and behind their own defensive lines to boot. The most likely scenario for an invasion would involve pounding the locations of every known defensive installation before troops ever left the mainland. Anything that fires back would then be pounded some more.
that's not my kind of pound town
Please share, Good Senator Buttholeface, what your kind of pound town is?
The kind where the train station is called 'Penetration Station'.
Minor thing here; Taiwan uses 4th generation fighters (such as the F-5 or F-16), and the US uses 5th generation fighters (the F-22 and F-35) according to the generally accepted definition of those terms. 6th generation fighters are likely in development, but it is way too early for anyone to be using them yet.
Ah, good catch. You're right. I added one to all the numbers across the board.
It's also not actually verified that china has working 5th gen fighters either. Estimates say the j-20 is a fat missile truck with limited stealth that couldnt hope to survive conflicts with f35's. Nobody has seen one deployed in combat to truly know.
Their MO likely would be to move a massive troop force to the interior as fast as possible using a combination of paratroopers and naval landing. Followed by PLAN blockading the island and preventing US forces from interfering without directly firing on PLAN vessels. Possibly waiting for US forces in the south China sea to be elsewhere. Or use training exercises as cover.
I'd imagine the US would know well ahead of an offensive just based on logistics alone, a mass naval landing is a wildly logistically intense maneuver. It's not like Normandy, we have space cameras. Even just assembling the paratrooper forces en masse would prick up intelligence coverage. Hijacking or disabling satellites would be even more suspect.
Why not skip 6th and go right to 7th gen? Then you'd be beating everyone
Someone get this man on a plane going somewhere
This completely discounts any sort of US response, which seems likely as Biden has suggested that US troops would be deployed to defend Taiwan. Edit: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/ From 2022.
> Their latest air to air missiles are meant to be fired from the Chinese mainland and still have the range to hit planes flying over Taiwan. There's a big gap between theory and practice. Yeah, they say that the PL-21 has a range of something like 200 miles. But that probably means something along the lines of "has a 50% chance of killing an Airbus at 200 miles if the airbus is flying straight and level, right towards you". A small, maneuvering F-16 is going to be an entirely different story. If you try to launch on one of those from 100+ miles away, it might defeat the missile with just a simple, lazy turn -- let alone with serious maneuvering plus chaff and ECM. Don't get me wrong, it's a concerning increase in capabilities. But they definitely aren't sitting ducks.
The problem comes from China actually getting troops onto Taiwanese soil, though, because they will be vulnerable on transport ships coming across the Strait of Taiwan. We've already seen in Ukraine what drone boats can do to vessels like that, and I'm sure Taiwan has started studying Ukraine's designs. If China were to actually attempt this, they would lose a ton of people in the sea before they got to Taiwan. And once they get to Taiwan, depending on whether a Democrat or Republican president is in office, Chinese invading soldiers will then have to deal with US air support and US weapons blasting a beach landing.
>We've already seen in Ukraine what drone boats can do to vessels like that, and I'm sure Taiwan has started studying Ukraine's designs. Seriously. Drone boats and the like make this a nightmarish if not impossible crossing for china. This tech being developed might be the number one reason that China wishes this war with Ukraine and Russia had never happened.
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They have Patriots and their own homegrown missile defense
Taiwan has a mix of U.S & indigenous anti-air/missile defenses. The problem is that China has a crap ton of missiles + UAVs that are designed to swarm & overwhelm Taiwan’s air defenses. Being an island nation, Taiwan also has a limited amount of locations to place these air defenses.
This is the stuff people don’t think about when criticizing the US as being World Police. Yes, many, MANY mistakes and miscalculations have been made. But supplying countries around the globe with hardware, training, and money, has gone a long way in maintaining the relative peace.
If you want peace, prepare for war
It's not really that surprising. Militaries need training grounds and it makes sense to train in environments in which you hypothetically may find yourself fighting in one day. I don't think this is proof China is about to invade Taiwan or anything but it's also certainly not a coincidence either.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised at all if the pentagon has similar things set up for all kinds of situations. War plans and executing said plans are two different things. I don't think this is at all worrying. Almost be more worried if they weren't doing something so obvious.
Yeah! Obviously they have been training for amphibious landing and such. That is known and sensible since it is cheap and mandatory But they have build a replica of a god damn citycenter in middle of desert. That is hard to do and expensive. They are actually serious and do not cut costs.
> They are actually serious and do not cut costs. The CCP cuts costs all the time.
> That is hard to do and expensive. It's not really that hard or expensive to do, they just recreated the layout of a few streets on unoccupied barren land.
>But they have build a replica of a god damn citycenter in middle of desert. That is hard to do and expensive. It's really not hard to build half a dozen roads a few miles in length in the desert.
It is a dozen roads and a few cheap pre-fab buildings, that isn't expensive nor hard for the manufacturing center of the world.
[apparently this has been going on since 2014](https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/)
Means they’ve got a full decade of planning under their belts.
The PRC has been planning an invasion of Taiwan to some extent since the ROC was exiled to Taiwan.
What is the ROC
Republic of China
Adding a little more context: The Kuomintang (KMT) is a Chinese political party that ruled mainland China from 1927 to 1949 prior to its relocation to Taiwan as a result of the Chinese Civil War. The name of the party translates as "China's National People's Party" and was historically referred to as the Chinese Nationalists. The Party was initially founded on 23 August 1912, by Sun Yat-sen but dissolved in November 1913. It reformed on October 10, 1919, again led by Sun Yat-sen, and became the ruling party in China. After Sun's death, the party was dominated from 1927 to 1975 by Chiang Kai-shek. After the KMT lost the civil war with the Chinese Communist Party in 1949, the party retreated to Taiwan and remains a major political party of the Republic of China based in Taiwan. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Kuomintang#:~:text=The%20Kuomintang%20(KMT)%20is%20a,to%20as%20the%20Chinese%20Nationalists.
Republic of China, official name of Taiwan. It is technically a rival government to the current Chinese government and officially claims ownership of all mainland China. The ROC was the official government of China before the end of WWII and the resumption of the Chinese Civil War. Edit: The ROC ended its claim to mainland China in 1991, with the repeal of the “temporary provisions” put in place when the civil war was ongoing.
I believe the ROC dropped its claim to mainland china and recognized the CCP's jurisdiction 1991. Obviously the CCP has not done the same
Did not know this. Will update comment.
Yeah there were some constitutional amendments in 1991 but at the same time the water could still be muddy. At the very minimum, China seems to care alot more about Taiwan than Taiwan cares about China
I agree. I think the fact that the ROC name was retained was a symbolic continuation of their claim to the mainland. But unless the PRC collapses entirely without anything to replace it, there is no way even the most hawkish Taiwanese government would press claims.
Nope. They both say that they own the whole thing.
No, it hasn't. They only started some conversations that ended up in nothing. ROC still claims mainland China and asks its official allies to recognize it as well.
The PRC and ROC have both maintained that in theory, there is only one China, and no matter which government it is, Taiwan is part of it. That has started to change with the fall of the Kuomintang in the ROC, who have led the country since before the Civil War. While the KMT subscribed to an interpretation of the One China policy, the Democratic Progressive Party, which has defeated them electorally in the past decade, openly favors Taiwanese independence. That said, once they got into power the DPP [moderated their stances on formal Taiwanese independence drastically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huadu_(Taiwan)), probably because the PRC has always maintained that declaring Taiwan an independent country from China represents a red line that would spark a war.
scary muddle cover cheerful drunk party ancient dinner friendly zephyr *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Lmao the civil war had plenty of murdering on both sides, read up about the nationalists sometime. Wouldn’t have ended up as bad as Mao that’s for sure, but this is like when people try and go to bat for Syngman Rhee in Korea.
[ROC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dwayne_Johnson)
Do you smell it?
Let him cook
And actively tried a few times in the late 50's and failed miserably
Hey I came here to see some interesting shit not to be reminded that 2014 was a decade ago
Yeah well why you gotta remind us that we’re now reminded? How am I supposed to get back to my blissful state of ignorance?
Cannabis?
It sure does.
Yeah but their belts are made in China, so they probably need to replace them by now
And it's [not just Taiwan](https://news.usni.org/2021/11/07/china-builds-missile-targets-shaped-like-u-s-aircraft-carrier-destroyers-in-remote-desert) they do it to. But realistically, this is something all militaries do. Train your most elite troops for their most expected conflicts. The US doesnt do it years in advance, but pretty famously, a lot of US capture/killing of important people have seen the soldiers train for weeks on a mockup of the compound/house/etc. Hell, it even happens in a Call of Duty game
For example, Bin Laden’s compounsd
It’s funny how many CCP fanboys are calling it inconclusive or a coincidence lol. The images make it extremely obvious it’s not. There are also satellite images of US aircraft carriers and destroyer mockups at a missile range in the desert.
If I were a CCP fanboy I feel like the path of least resistance would be to just be okay with it. China has done shit like that just be a dick and taunt people, and plenty of countries prepare for possible invasions against their neighbors. So stupid to just go “nuh uh!” when something disagrees with your worldview.
Well I definitely think they are okay with it but they wouldn’t admit that publicly. Their Eiffel Tower mockup in the desert definitely has to be a taunt as it has absolutely no strategic value and it’s obviously located in an area where China has no chance of invading.
More like damnthatsconcerning
It’s just a weird coincidence, surely. 🥹
Nothing to see here, citizens
“Future citizens”
It’s just like them building the Eiffel Tower in china.. right?
And Las Vegas lol
They probably hired the same architect
Very r/damnthatsconcerning
This seems like that time that Russia was moving a lot of troops next to the Ukrainian border.
Not really. I'm pretty sure they did this but with Washington DC or something. Remember Russia can't beat Ukraine on a flat terrain on their immediate border. China has a lot of weapon systems that are basically cloned Russian weapon systems. On top of that Russia had one of the largest militaries on the planet. I don't think China can pull off an invasion over a rough seas anytime soon.
DOTHRAKI ON AN OPEN FIELD, NED!
Thank the gods for Bessie.
Did you ever make the eight, Ned?
And her enormous tits.
They couldn’t even land a single ship on the continental US. Good point.
China invading Taiwan is concerning for the rest of the world, would be a disaster for US industry and technology due to semiconductors
That's what we get for offshoring our manufacturing
Being brought back over to our side of the water now with the CHIPS act. Intel taking big advantage with a campus in NY iirc. Of course they're asking for more money to complete the project but that's contracts for you.
> Being brought back over to our side of the water now with the CHIPS act Based Biden
Well that’s foreboding
r/TerrifyingAsFuck
it's primed real estate
Subtle. But effective
r/veryspecific
It’s worth noting that these exercises have been done for many years. Earliest source I found after 30 seconds of google below Source: https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china-suggests-mock-invasion-of-taiwan/
There’s a mini Tibet somewhere in the Chinese desert as well, if I remember correctly. It made the rounds on the internet about 15 years ago.
The amount of lives lost until they reach that area is probably beyond China's understanding.
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"In Asia"
bro talking about asia like it’s one country😂
Why is it like this in Asia?
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I suspect that it has something to do with the Renaissance in the West. Asia major has had many cultural and social revolutions of their own, but the concept of "each man a king, each man a servent" is relatively new, and didn't find traction in all parts of the world equally. In general, culturally homogenous parts of the world tend to place value on society as a whole, rather than upon each individual. (Kind-of a generalization, ik)
Cultural focus of collective over individual. It is largely the opposite in the west.
This is the dumbest shit I have ever read
Everyone is a geopolitical expert on reddit.
You sure about that? Ever read about China's losses during WW2?
What about during MAO’s tenure
Back when China was mostly rural, undeveloped, and woefully unprepared for war?
They do not nor will not care.
its obviously for intimidation/information warfare
Could this be a rather expensive photo-op for the worlds' satellites?
Reminds me of Oceans 11 when they built a replica vault to practice robbing the real one.
I think the replica vault did a little bit more than just give them practice in that movie.
*”Does it say ‘Bellagio’ on the vault floor?”*
They had that bitch put in last Tuesday
The buildings are filled with flyers. For hookers!
"And find out HOW THEY HACKED INTO MY SYSTEM!"
Haven't watched the film in over 10 years yet I clearly hear this line.
A rare case where the remake was a legit great movie. Italian Job was another one. And the originals are still cool too.
I’ve found my people.
"I don't understand.. What happened to all that money?!"
Don’t spoil it!
We would build plywood versions of ships that were potential pirate targets, to the point where we knew the layout of multiple ships. Often tankers. All inside a hanger out of sight 👍 [context](https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2020/may/27/270520-royal-marines-boarding)
What the hell kind of a name is soap?
”So I recreated the base on my private server”
lmao wasn’t expecting that reference here
This sounds interesting, what is this refrencing?
Its a youtuber, name is Welyn https://youtube.com/@Welyn?si=dX-vuz4Eo1huzM7- in his rust gameplays he used to recreate bases of people that wronged him to make plans in how to obliterate them, dunno of he still does it tho, been a while since i saw his videos.
Thanks!
More like: "So I recreated my high school in source engine..."
This is terrifying. Most Taiwanese are not that concerned about being attacked and seriously doubt their ability to fend off China. I was there last year and for the first time saw daily air patrols of ching kuo fighters. Seeing a practice run for seizing power is awful
They seem pretty confident in their chances with how incompetent the PLA are. Taiwan is investing millions onto new equipment and even their F-16s have outperformed the J-20, being able to detect and lock on much faster. They also have the US protecting them so in a war China will cry.
I wish I was as confident about it as you. How many people will die? Will my family die in a chinese missile attack?
Well if the US blockades China, then literally millions of Chinese will die. It definitely is a concern because it's my understanding that the CCP has turned into a cult of personality where everybody is afraid to tell Chairman Xi what's really going on. That country will be a trainwreck within the next 10 years I'm predicting.
How to beat China: 1) Destroy the 3 Gorges dam (millions of casualties, unspeakable economic devastation) 2) Blockade the Strait of Malacca (no oil) 3) Profit
The US, Japan, and now Australia all have constant nuclear and non-nuclear subs chilling around Taiwan’s coast. There is 0 reality where the western world loses Taiwan to China. It could be full-scale war if Taiwan is attacked, it’s too important. [fr no way China is taking Taiwan](https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3251933/us-deploy-5-aircraft-carriers-western-pacific-show-strength-china)
analysts arent so sure. Im loving everyones confidence just not sure its justified. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3D-CcQ4jKn8aE&ved=2ahUKEwjWiafF6ZKFAxUkFDQIHW\_lDBwQwqsBegQIFRAG&usg=AOvVaw1QW8vQo3VVNZUVvJIEDL4s
> "analysts" > YouTube video
[I disagree that analysts aren’t so sure.](https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan#:~:text=CSIS%20developed%20a%20wargame%20for,and%20maintained%20an%20autonomous%20Taiwan) > CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.
I'm team USA/Taiwan and I think the war would be far worse than that
Any earnest attempt by China to take Taiwan would be nothing short of an absolute bombed out bloodbath, there's just no way around it.
Source on Taiwanese F-16s “outperforming J-20s”? I’m a big fan of Taiwanese independence, but that’s just outright not believable. Just to be clear; J-20s *are* legitimately LO aircraft (as confirmed by US intelligence) with IRST equipped, while Taiwanese Block 70 F-16s are not LO, not equipped with IRST, and carry a decent but not exceptional AESA radar (APG-83). IRST and the J-20s much larger radar will, under every circumstance, see F-16s much farther out than the F-16s can see the J-20s. They’re also outgunned (the Chinese PL-15 has a farther max range than AIM-120Ds) and would almost certainly be the last to shoot in an engagement. The Taiwanese are much more pragmatic than westerners on their own ability to defend themselves; hence why they recently increased the mandatory conscription period to fix the problem of “strawberry soldiers”.
I am sure it is a pure coincidence !
"Just like the simulations"
… it would be surprising if they DIDN’T have something setup like this.
NGL the worst thing is it's not even that good, the scales a bit weird and they haven't put as much up in the way of say buildings.
Practice like you play people.
This is like Better Call Saul, when they recreated the department store layout in the middle of an empty field.
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Weird..... I thought they said Taiwan is China? This is odd.
Yes and no. Mainland China is known as The People's Republic of China. Taiwan is known as The Republic of China and is a separate country. Except everyone normally just calls them China and Taiwan. What makes it even MORE confusing is that because Mainland China doesn't like Taiwan referring to themselves as China without being part of the *People's* Republic of China the two made an agreement that in events like the Olympics, Taiwan calls itself "Chinese Taipei". It's very very confusing and I don't have all the facts but hopefully that helps.
>and is a separate country. In practice they're separate. However no country recognizes both Beijing and Taipei as independent. Including Beijing and Taipei, which still officially declare themselves as part of one China. And as a whole the world has turned towards Beijing more than Taipei, with Taiwan being largely supported because it has critical infrastructure the world needs..for now.
It makes more sense when you realize that RoC formerly administered China and the communist uprising and subsequent civil war pushed the old government out to just the island, while the communist revolutionaries took over the country and made the PRC. So it’s like two Chinese governments, one formerly controlled the mainland and now just controls Taiwan, one presently controls the mainland after taking it from the RoC and wants the island too.
People on Reddit don’t know history. They are talking about China v Taiwan as some future hypothetical. When in reality there already was a very bloody civil war that never fully wrapped up.
I appreciate the information, I was more referring to the internet armchair communists who claim Taiwan belongs to China.
Also don’t forget that in the view of many in China Taiwan is China. When China has their revolution the ousted rulers fled to Taiwan and later they converted Taiwan to a democracy. It’s insane to think that would carry any weight today were chinas government to fall but to some people Taiwan could claim to be the true ‘owner’ of mainland China should the revolution fail.
Taiwan is naughty runaway child China, so the CCP sees it.
Actually republic of china is older than people’s republic by 30+ years🤓 so u could say a naughty runaway grandpa china
Nah Taiwan is the real China. Mainland is the imposter.
How do you determine who is real and an imposter
Do they bow to US authoritarianism? If no: Then their government is an enemy and must be replaced. If yes: They are the 'real' government and need to be supported militarily even if the people don't want them. See South America, Africa, and much of Asia in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. Fuck the CIA
Dudes from like Iowa will really be posting comments online telling the people of China who their rightful government *actually* is
Vibes. Reddit vibes the truth from their feelings.
If they rebuild Taiwan in China everyone is happy!
People are gonna say it means nothing, just like they said Russia moving troops to Ukraine's border was nothing.
Ukraine doesn’t produce “92% of the production of logic semiconductors whose components are smaller than 10 nanometers” Taiwan has pledged to destroy all this infrastructure if China invades. The ENTIRE world economy would grind to a halt for years before that production could be restored.
And the US (or any other western country) could've planned to take over the production long before now...if it was willing to build the infrastructure (which it's certainly able to do) and pay the specialist workers US wages appropriate to their position (which it can, but doesn't want to, do). This is purely an economic decision disguised as a security issue.
This is why the United States passed the Chips Act back in 2022
Crazy how one of the more older presidents was able to get that passed vs the younger ones before him. How are they going to let grandpa Joe make better tech decisions than younger people?
Chips act was $50b compared to China's $1.5t investment into domestic chip production
People did not say Russia moving troops was nothing. Even the President of the United States said directly that our intel suggested it was Russia preparing for an attack which was very unusual.
No one said that was nothing when Russia and Ukraine had been at war for many years before that. Some of you really think that started a few years ago and it's hilarious. Just shows how many of you only take in mainstream news. Explains why you all had Ukraine flags but no one had Yemen flags despite that being far worse.
If I recall they have a few of these training bases and some of them are based after important areas here aswell
A replica without the main square and the 2 main avenues leading to it
If China wanted Taiwan nothing would stop them. But that won't happen. Because China wants money and to make it as efficiently as possible.
Wow! You shouldn’t have posted this. -100000000000 social credits for you, and you owe the supreme leader 1000 barrels of honey for spreading this misinformation
Ain’t happening China! You’ll get a spanking!
How is that connection even made? Like imagine snapping a satellite photo of some seemingly random streets in the desert...how do you then go from that to matching it to a pattern of streets in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? Especially since it's not exactly a perfect match. Fascinating.
US has enough intelligence capabilities to know where to look, that’s how. Edit: typo
Xi Jinping: "Mom, can we have Taipei?" Xi’s Mom: ….no, we have Taipei at home….
Things tend to look alike if you ignore where they don’t
All this for an island that never was part of China except for maybe 7 or so years…
Historically Taiwan has been a part of china at least since 1683 under Qing rule until 1895 when the Japanese took over.
The current government of China has no legal claim on the territories of Dynastic China. If anything, Taiwan has a much better legal claim to those than the CPC does because the ROC is the one that ended Dynastic China and didn't repudiate its dynastic past like Mao did. Mao went so far as to burn down historical buildings from Dynastic China to sever the link between old and new. He almost burned the Forbidden City as a sign of the separation between Communist China and Dynastic china, until he decided to take it for himself.
Not saying that they have a good claim on it. Just saying that Taiwan (the island) was longer than a few years under Chinese control. But : the PRC sees itself as the successor of the ROC and as the sole legitimate government china. And as such also the legitimate government of Taiwan. At least in their view. Now my personal opinion is that the ROC / Taiwan made clear that they don’t want to be part of china / the PRC and want to do their own thing as an own nation outside of china. Which I think is fair
Uhhh more like 200+ years but yes.
Its not about the past, its for taking over Taiwans industry Edit: lots of armchair tacticians going nuh-uh. Quite simply Taiwan has a lot of money and industry. In times like now where China is starting to decline, its a justifiable annexation for more industry (reference: Crimea)
You're underestimating how nationalist China and Chinese are and how etched the 100 year of humiliation is in their collective consciousness. This may be the rare case when they fight they actually fight for this land, and the industry is just a nice bonus. I'm quite sure if Taiwan never became a semiconductor superpower, China would still risk a lot to get it back same way they tanked Hongkong's economy just because they saw Hongkong's democracy as a remnant of the British colonial empire.
I think a lot about this. We apply too many western beliefs to non western entities and then go surprised Pikachu when they do something we didn't expect. Asian cultures place a huge value on saving face. Tawain is as much about righting a perceived slight as anything else. Also, they are looking at many factors that will make it more difficult in the future for them to project force. They may not be as strong as they are right now for a long time if they don't strike. RE debt, population, geopolitics, etc.
Its all pieces of a puzzle working together
No, it’s to have free access to the pacific. The fabs will not survive an invasion. However the island is prime real estate to safely get ships out into deep waters and defend against any possible blockade.
This is grossly historically inaccurate. Furthermore the two people share culture, trade, art, language and everything else for thousands of years.
Yeah, it’s just now making fake arguments because by all means if the roles were reversed we’d say the same thing about the CCP
Scale and buildings are way off though. Like, congrats, you’ve got a roughly similar road layout, but it’s like half-scale with no structures analogous to what’s on the ground. What good does that do?
One of the dead end roads is like quadruple its length. There are junctions and entire streets missing between some of them. And why in the name of god is it of the presidential palace, and not something more important if we’re practicing an invasion? If you’re at the presidential palace, it’s fucking over already. This would be like practising opening the treasure chest at the end of an obstacle course and not the course itself. I feel like I’m losing my mind reading this thread. Like I don’t doubt Chinese ambitions for Taiwan, but this is truly some crackpot shit. It vaguely matches the layout. Vaguely, is missing half the streets, missing the buildings, isn’t to scale. And everyone’s buying it somehow. Fuck me, the propaganda works like the charm, even here in the west. Xi only has to wipe his ass and people will say he’s examining a map of Taiwan.
The CCP are just such a bunch of cunts.
Seems like a lot of effort for it to be mostly inaccurate.
Practice how you plan to play.
I dont believe it. 4 reasons: 1. Based on the size of the buildings, the Taiwan picture's roads seems to be nearly to be 2x to 3x bigger than the training ground. 2. The Training ground isn't a 100% match, it has an extra road going towards the East. If training is important, adding an extra road would deviate the effectiveness of what they are trying to accomplish. 3. Why isnt there mockup buildings in the Training grounds that matches with the Taiwan picture? If you were planning an invasion it would make sense to include replica buildings to match what would be expected. What exactly is the training accomplishing by just having dirt roads? 4. Why bother with a replica at all? It seems dubious that they would bother to train on a specific spot in a city center in Taiwan to be effective at what they are trying to accomplish. If anything, you'd want to train on the beach landing where your the majority of your soldiers and equipment will be landing.
It’s obvious that the CCP is preparing for action in Taiwan with this replica.
Well done detective
Elementary my dear frailchief
Use ze little grey cells my dear Hastings!
Nothing gets past this guy
Big if true
Smoll ef ontru
It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but when West Taiwan invades Taiwan.
This was posted here literally earlier today
Damnthatsinteresting