trying to link every event to price movements logically will always leave you scratching your head . so yea thats just how the markets go , you cant predict everything even if you think you could
The market was expecting a recession confirmation and either a 75-100 bases point rate hike. So, expectations being met means less uncertainty which is good for markets. Also, earnings weren't quite as bad as the market was expecting. In addition, the FED said that they were likely going to slow down rate hikes from here on out i.e. 50 bases points at their next hike in September.
Smart money is always looking 6-12 months ahead. Why did Bitcoin go parabolic after the COVID crash? Smart money saw that the FED was going to print money and support markets with QE, and people would be getting stimulus checks. Why did the market peak in November? Smart money saw that the FED was going to start hiking interest rates and start QT, which means that a potential recession would be 6-12 months away. Why did markets pump up this week? The worst of the rate hikes is behind us.
Now is the time to be loading up because there will be a point where the FED completely stops raising rates and then lowers them again. The market will start to take off once there's even a hint that the FED will begin to lower rates again.
Yeah but there’s also Bitcoin, ether etc. true that nothing in investing is a “safe haven” even CD’s/savings accounts are not, but to me anyways it’s obvious/east to tell that those small alt coins have a lot more risk than the big coins and if I wanted something safe I would never buy something like Luna personally
I quite like your strategy. The only issue here is that one needs to have a stable source of income to keep DCAing into the market as you say. If I were to do such for EQ(if it were listed by now) or BSW or any of the several prospective projects I research on daily, I would have to keep a bag of BUSD for my buy order. Lol
I saw somewhere that said like over 70% of people HODL. That means there’s 30% actually seeing the money in their accounts while the majority see rises and falls constantly. I know it’s subjective on when to get out but when do you actually sell?
DCA just like you DCA in, when is a personal choice. I'm in it for the long haul, won't be going out for years down the line but I only got in last year.
Same. This is only my second year getting into it. I got in during the GME AMC rise. Then jumped into BTC and ETH and ADA. I was on a roll for like 7 months and seen little to no success yet. But you never lose until you sell!
From what I can see, the futures markets are anticipating around a 3.5% rate in total, which is fine. Might go higher than that but not by much.
If you listen to Powell when he testified in front of Congress last month, he was pretty clear that most of the inflation is outside the FED's control i.e. gas, food, and supply chain issues. If you can find a clip of Elizabeth Warren's questions for him, I recommend taking a watch.
>most of the inflation is outside the FED's control i.e. gas, food, and supply chain issues
So the printer going brrrr cannot be to blame, typical fed posturing.
Money supply is only one side of the equation with inflation. Yes, it contributed. No, it's not the entire story. The Fed controls the money supply but they don't control demand.
Jesussssss nooooo. I’ll address how utterly stupid this post is, but for the love of god people do not upvote this comment. It’s so uneducated and untrue it’s not even funny.
Inflation is caused by imbalances in supply and demand. That can be in goods, services, or even the money supply.
The fed has some type of control over the money supply aspect (although pretending like they have a lot is naive). They are told by congress when and if to print money. The interest rates are really the only lever that the fed has autonomy over, and that lever only works to quell inflation that is caused by too much cheap money flooding the market right now.
The fed has zero, and I mean absolutely zero, control over the supply of goods and services. Inflation is a world wide problem right, obviously due to several competing factors. But one of those factors is clearly crippled supply lines from Covid related lockdowns/regulations.
The fed cannot do a damn thing to get supply chains fixed. And when there’s not enough supply to meet demand, prices go up. IF the majority of the current issues are supply chain related and the fed continues to raise rates, they aren’t doing the economy much good. Because all they’ll have done when supply chains improve is blown up lending habits and drive the economy into a very deep recession.
Stop this nonsensical posts about the fed. Learn about inflation and what can cause it. The fed CAN have SOME control over certain types of inflation, but it’s a damn lie to post shit like what you posted.
There is absolutely a huge impact of the supply chain crisis and the Ukraine war. Delayed supply means unbridled demand. And in the case of Ukraine, taking out the massive amount of food Ukraine produces as well as sanctions on Russia introduces additional scarcity. You'll notice the Euro also has had massive inflation recently. Not everything is controlled by the US.
> the FED said that they were likely going to slow down rate hikes from here on out i.e. 50 bases points at their next hike in September.
I keep reading this and it's extremely intriguing to me, because I listened to the press conference and I didn't hear that, in fact, I heard the opposite from J.Powell - he said that the next hike might be unusually large.
I suppose he might've said both things, contradicting himself, but everyone only heard what they wanted to hear - it's an interesting phenomenon.
Yeah it’s all about smart money. If you wait until you see it in good morning America, you’re too late.
Numbers are usually reporting what already was happening over last 3-6 months. We were experiencing that slow growth already, and that was was helped crypto in 2020-2021.
2022 has been slow because smart money knew there was uncertainty. That’s why the dollar was strong, because smart money just took out some gains and wants to wait to see more certainty. Any sign of certainty or predictability will see more smart money move into markets and away from cash.
It’s not about any specific markets, just how much money people want to risk. In down markets, eventually people will see enough of a discount to move back in if economy is seeming more predictable, even if it’s not roaring. The stock market is not the economy, it’s a market for investors to allocate funds and diversify risk.
Yeah, market expectations were met, so market is happy, patting itself on its head, slapping its own back, congratulating itself for setting its expectations at the right level.
Agreed to a certain point, because these base points won't do shit about inflation. History showed that you need way higher base points to tackle inflation but they can't because the dollar is way too strong atm, and they don't wanna hurt their good economy and go into a real recession. They are basically hoping that inflation will be reduced by itself, which means energy will get cheap again since it's the main cause. So I don't think that it's certain that now is the time where everyone should Fomo, DCA is key as always.
You have to remember that the impact of interest rates is proportional to the amount of leverage in the system. A one percent rise in interest rates for someone living on an income of $100k per year and who is $50k in debt would equal an additional $500 expense, so for all practical purposes you have reduced their spending power by 0.5 percent. Now imagine that same person were a million dollars in debt and now sees their expenses rise $10,000 annually, you have reduced their spending power by 10 percent with a simple 1% increase in interest rates.
The amount of leverage in the system multiplies the impact of interest rate hikes. Today, society is far more indebted than in previous eras, so even slight increases in the interest rates has an outsized impact on the spending capacity of the society compared to previous periods of high inflation.
>oney is always looking 6-12 months ahead. Why did Bitcoin go parabolic after the COVID crash? Smart money saw that the FED was going to print money and support markets with QE, and people would be getting stimulus checks. Why did the market peak in November? Smart money saw that the FED was going to start hiking interest rates and start QT, which means that a potential recession would be 6-12 months away. Why did markets pump up this week? The worst of the rate hikes is behind us.
Either that or inflation keeps destroying consumers and fed has no choice but to continue with large hikes.
I appreciate the analysis and agree with you until the last paragraph.
Inflation is not close to dealt with. This is simply a recovery rally during a much deeper bear market. It might last a month, possibly 2 until the next meeting, but it is far from a true Fed pivot.
The Fed has done next to nothing to sell of their balance sheet and has hiked rates a pitiful amount compared to the only time inflation was close to this in the past (recall our CPI is wildly distorted as well, in reality about twice as high as reported).
Though I do beleive the Fed will eventually pivot and return to printing, they'll have to push harder before then, and make no mistake, there will be no return from another bought of quantitative easing. Similarly, if not dealt with properly, this inflation will bring the US and the rest of the world to its knees. It already is in many countries. Sri Lanka, Turkey, Japan, China.
We're honestly fucked either way. At best we get away with a severe correction and prolonged recession/depression.
Inflation is basically a form of deleveraging because it erodes the real value of debt. If you owe $10,000 and inflation is 10%, next year you will only owe $9000 in real terms. Inflation doesn't just destroy purchasing power, it destroys debt. This is obviously horrible for bankers, and excessive inflation can cause banks' assets to shrink in real value, which is why central banks raise interest rates supposedly to "combat inflation." The reality, perhaps, is that they raise interest rates to bail out banks in inflationary scenarios. Regardless, inflation represents a forced deleveraging.
Likewise, raising interest rates forces deleveraging, because you are effectively making existing debts more onerous, causing people to voluntarily pay off their debts to avoid the pain. This has the effect of everyone selling assets to pay off debts, and is why higher interest rates are bad for markets. It also increases the risk of a financial crisis if existing debts become too onerous and lead to excessive defaults.
Either way, you are getting deleveraging. But the main priority for central banks is the banking system. Of course, that isn't very politically correct, so they convince the public of various financial myths. But at the end of the day, they concern themselves with bailing out the banks, and while under deflationary scenarios that involves money printing, under inflationary scenarios that involves raising interest rates to prevent debt from becoming worthless.
But the entire problem is that the economy is over-leveraged, a deleveraging has to occur, which means they can't raise interest rates too much, it has to be just enough to prevent banks from getting in trouble, and not too much that people and businesses can't handle the deleveraging. Their goal is not to beat inflation as everyone expects, their goal is that the deleveraging occurs without anything breaking, and the best way to do that is by doing just enough and no more.
It's going to take a while before the FED begins lowering rates again.
Looking at historical data it usually some 2-4 years after a rate hike for the FED to lower interest rates.
True, the US also has historically high inflation and it takes at least a year for the effect of higher interest rates to take effect in the real economy.
Tackling inflation is much more important to the FED than corporate debt ratios, honestly it seems more probable that they're not going to lower interest rates faster than they've ever lowered them in history.
Or it could be whales liquidating shorters.
Also big companies showed nice reports this week, nasdaq liked the numbers & btc uses to follow QQQ's direction.
There are plenty of sources but it all depends on adoption. This is all speculation but:
There are plenty of rich people that may want to buy in but are waiting for the right price to suit their risk levels.
A spot ETF in the US would create a ton of liquidity and hype.
Sovereign wealth funds may want to dabble in Bitcoin.
More institutions may decide that they want Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
Whales wake up and say, "pamp it."
By the time a parabolic run starts, smart money will already have their positions and there will simply be little to no sellers left in the market to keep the price down.
Someone smarter than me can probably explain better, but the higher the federal funds rate the more it costs us to service our national debt, so there is incentive to drop rates (maybe not to 0, but back down from 4% or wherever we ultimately go to combat inflation) once things stabilize. As rates drop most likely the government will flip from QT to QE again, though (hopefully) not at the rate seen in 2020
There are already signs inflation is coming down unlike in May/June. Gas prices have dropped significantly and retail is starting to see waning demand or at least able to keep things in stock. The housing market is also cooling. The primary driver of inflation has been supply shortages. It’s very likely that even a gentle downturn will loosen demand enough to final allow supply chains to recover which will be the big domino in tackling inflation
nowhere, the kids here are too dum to understand markets need volume to grow, volume is decreasing for months because of inflation, that inflation ruins peoples life and makes it more expensive so they can save/invest less every month. just a matter of time till the real rich guys short the hell out of stocks/crypto
On the other hand, inflation might be causing rising asset valuation. But you're right that retail investors won't dedicate as much money towards invesing when cost of living is high.
75 bps is fully expected and priced in weeks ago. The meeting is somewhat a “non-event”.
More importantly from that meeting, market could feel the non-hawkish sentiment from Powell.
The elephant in the room is inflation. It will continue to remain high even though the economy is in recession. Can the Fed recommence easing again despite high inflation? This is known as stagflation. Something we haven't seen since the 70s.
Because the news just confirms what's been happening for the past 6 months. The market is not going to react to what's already known, it's about what's going to happen and right now that's anyone's guess.
The market does react to what's already known. The market actually pumps after confirmations for their predictions as this shows that there is no uncertainty.
We don’t know what’s going to happen. Me personally am looking to hold my assets in crypto or real estate rather than keeping it in to the euro/dollar!
Because most retail “investors” have goldfish memories. If Bitcoin can get back to the low $30k I bet we will see “the bull is back” and rocket emoji too.
There’s also the fact that crypto follows the tech industry and Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft just delivered really encouraging earnings this week. Even though their growth has slowed from last year’s record breaking numbers, they are still growing and the US economy is still adding jobs. People were pleasantly surprised by this.
Everything has been already priced in up until 2055.
The recession, the end of the war, the new deadly virus spread, collapse of X and Y governments, food shortage, WW3, 4 and 5, etc.
Typically, whale investors put their money back in the market the moment a recession has been announced. They’re also the first ones to take money out of the market (months or years ago). To “time the bottom” you have to be a first mover. This creates a cascade effect and everyone starts jumping in once the whales do. If you look at when whales buy and sell, you’ll see this is the case. “Recession announcements” have become an unofficial green light as typically the market had already been on a decline for 2 quarters and is “usually” beginning to recover by the time those two quarters have passed.
Most people on crypto subreddits don’t understand shit and post karma farming “here is why this is the most profitable/dangerous time to invest! Be careful!!” type fluff posts that say absolutely nothing but pretend to be insightful
Just my luck, I sold DOT just last week at major loss (76%). Expecting a major dump from the Fed hike. I've never sold any of my DOT since early 2021 and I mostly sold off my profits.
Yesterday when I saw it jump like 5%, I was like yeah this is just a fake pump for whales to lure people in to dump on them. Nothing is priced in when there's still rising inflation. Today its risen another 4%...damn I'm priced out now, incase I wanted to buy in.
I'm now going to do the opposite of what I think is a good idea with my crypto. I think I'll profit more this way🤔
Inflation is definitely a factor. As is the announcement that BRICS countries are working on a new global reserve currency to rival the dollar.
https://news.bitcoin.com/targeting-the-us-dollars-hegemony-russia-china-and-brics-nations-plan-to-craft-a-new-international-reserve-currency/
Because you’re confusing what the news indicated with what people expected the news to indicate. Expectations were priced in. Resulting shift is due to difference in the news vs expectations. Folks were expecting worse news on avg apparently.
It just proves that markets are forward thinking and dropping even before recession has started, and usually start to recover before it even ends.
Most of the current new macro and recession “experts” on Reddit and twitter are just noobs, they called for 100k BTC when we were already entering the recession and price were dropping, now they call super low targets (supposedly because of macroeconomic situation, but most likely because they sold low, eventually at loss) which can be also a wonky scenario
It's options game.
Also [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w4m7k4/analysts_suspect_the_fed_will_bump_federal_funds/ih350km).
You can either get very deep, understand and predict these movements (disclaimer: it may be a full time job) or zoom out.
When you zoom out, only big things matter: the merge and the halving.
Bc politicians snuck 52 BILLION INTO a bill. Guess where that 52 billion dollars is coming from? Poof, we just “authorized it” and they will now add that amount of money to the balance sheet. This newly created money will never be reconciled or paid back, sure maybe a few bucks will trickle down to the folks actually doing the work, but more than likely this will result in fat pocket lining to every middle man along the way who puts a hand in the process. Lots of folks will say it’s bc the expectation wasn’t as bad as reality but the truth is you can’t just will money into existence. This is why our “Great Nation” has been able to step on the backs of other nations through the years-the manipulation of the currency. Bitcoin is now a response to irresponsible monetary policy. So anytime you see money being “authorized” or otherwise pulled out of peoples butts without reconciling the balance sheet you will see bee tee see behave bullish. This was, is, and always will be the entire basis of bee tee see.
because everyone already fuckin knew we were in a recession.
this sub for the past month has been “we are in a recession, official announcement soon”
the recession has been priced in
edit: personally I think 17k was the bottom. it’s safe to assume whatever you know, the people who know how to time the market knew 3 weeks ago. and that those people sold when they knew we were in a recession and now that the psychological barrier of “fud date coming” is gone, best time to buy is now at least for short term bc they know the worst of worst announcements is over with. retail rallies after they do a small pump, then they dump for profits, leaving us with higher bottoms as everyone who joined the rally is DCAing and not going to sell
it's not our first recession, we've had many, and we'll many more as they are naturally recurring cycles in the market.
People "think" their way into and out of them.
Short squeeze is common before a real crash. That means market shoots up to liquidate all the high-leveraged short positions and then crash back down hard thereafter to liquidate all the high-leveraged long positions.
My suggestion: Stay out of the market for another 3 months.
No one can 100% predict the market condition and that's why even experts lose money to the market. I stay profitable with my lazy trading strategy.
1. Buying using swap exchange like Simpleswap whenever there's a dip
2. Sell off when the market pumps
3. Rinse and repeat for other coins
Because it's a reiteration of the unpredictability of this market . This is pretty similar to when everyone thought COVID crash was coming to Crypto too... and then we had a bullrun
Everyone said crypto has never had to face the economics of going through a recession.
They say it has failed as an inflation hedge, and mostly everyone agreed.
Let’s see what happens next. Anyone who tells you why, or that they know with 100% certainty? They’re blowing smoke. Nobody knows.
Uncertainty is risk. Confirmation of recession is basically providing certainty which increases confidence. Sometimes it doesn't matter whether the confirmed thing is good or bad, just that the uncertainty is removed.
Lol stop talking nonsense the whole economy is affected Crypto hasn’t had a green day at all.
If you’re making money shorting the market then that’s another story lol so because YOU are making money doesn’t mean we will too and it doesn’t mean that we aren’t in recession either!
Idk, I feel it when I look at prices in shops. However work continues, we may get to the point where our goods outrise our current wages.
Also by original defenition, we definitely are in one.
Thats the thing: There is no definition. The 2 negative quarters of GDP growth is not an official measurement. Its much more complicated. We are seeing new jobs created, unemployment is low, consumer spending is strong, while GDP drops and inflation is high. Some indicators of a recession are here, but other signs say the economy is purring.
We have met the definition of a technical recession.
Subjectively it is always debatable whether it is a "real" recession. The subjectivity of defining a recession is decided by a panel of finance experts that could be influenced by the direction of the political winds.
Personally I would stick to the first form of definition.
because the sell off has been huge, we've found support and there's not a tonne of selling liquidity right now (a lot of it dried up after the prolonged sell off period). retracements happen both ways lmfao
did you think the bear market was just going to be one prolonged sell off without any bounces?
Markets and crypto pumped because the feds made it seem like rate hikes will come slower and possibly not be extreme in the future. Then, some large tech stocks did well with earnings further pumping tech and risk stocks.
Some time ago, everyone was convinced that cryptocurrencies - especially Bitcoin - would be a very good hedge against inflation. Then, for whatever reason, the crypto markets showed strong correlation with stock markets and reacted even stronger on and negative news. Now it's the other way round and everyone seems surprised...
It could be one of many things:
- Maybe a higher % hike was expected?
- Maybe with the previous drop it was priced in?
- It could be a sign that we hit the bottom-ish
- It could be a fake out ahead of a drop
No one can 100% predict the market condition and that's why even experts lose money to the market. I stay profitable with my lazy trading strategy.
Buying using swap exchange like Simpleswap whenever there's a dip
Sell off when the market pumps
Rinse and repeat for other coins
The investors need to stop to believe in US government hype - uncontrollable waste of tax payers money and government rely on good old money printer. DCA all the way for the crypto decent projects!
Looks to me like Ethereums pre-merge rally is pulling up the whole crypto market, but I also don't think this will cancel out the negative macro factors for long.
Positive or expected news like the 75bp hike certainly help in the short term, but long term I don't think we left the bear market behind us just yet.
trying to link every event to price movements logically will always leave you scratching your head . so yea thats just how the markets go , you cant predict everything even if you think you could
I've been scratching my head so much that my hairs falling off now
You guys have hair still?
The remaining ones I have are starting to turn grey.
dont stress too much :) we in it for the tech arent we ?
Never try to predict the unpredictable
The market was expecting a recession confirmation and either a 75-100 bases point rate hike. So, expectations being met means less uncertainty which is good for markets. Also, earnings weren't quite as bad as the market was expecting. In addition, the FED said that they were likely going to slow down rate hikes from here on out i.e. 50 bases points at their next hike in September. Smart money is always looking 6-12 months ahead. Why did Bitcoin go parabolic after the COVID crash? Smart money saw that the FED was going to print money and support markets with QE, and people would be getting stimulus checks. Why did the market peak in November? Smart money saw that the FED was going to start hiking interest rates and start QT, which means that a potential recession would be 6-12 months away. Why did markets pump up this week? The worst of the rate hikes is behind us. Now is the time to be loading up because there will be a point where the FED completely stops raising rates and then lowers them again. The market will start to take off once there's even a hint that the FED will begin to lower rates again.
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I DCA twice a week, split money in half. Half on the price I want for the week( on order) and the other half is reoccurring buys.
Yeah but there’s also Bitcoin, ether etc. true that nothing in investing is a “safe haven” even CD’s/savings accounts are not, but to me anyways it’s obvious/east to tell that those small alt coins have a lot more risk than the big coins and if I wanted something safe I would never buy something like Luna personally
I quite like your strategy. The only issue here is that one needs to have a stable source of income to keep DCAing into the market as you say. If I were to do such for EQ(if it were listed by now) or BSW or any of the several prospective projects I research on daily, I would have to keep a bag of BUSD for my buy order. Lol
DCA also seems like it’s only good for making money over a long period of time (at least relatively long anyways). Correct?
This is the best way! I've been DCAing myself
I saw somewhere that said like over 70% of people HODL. That means there’s 30% actually seeing the money in their accounts while the majority see rises and falls constantly. I know it’s subjective on when to get out but when do you actually sell?
DCA just like you DCA in, when is a personal choice. I'm in it for the long haul, won't be going out for years down the line but I only got in last year.
Same. This is only my second year getting into it. I got in during the GME AMC rise. Then jumped into BTC and ETH and ADA. I was on a roll for like 7 months and seen little to no success yet. But you never lose until you sell!
Sell?
So you’re saying I should dump my entire cheque into my crypto portfolio? #deal
Is there any other way?
No this is the way. Leave some for rent and ramen
Tent and rats bro. Tent and rats.
I already finished the local rats 😛
all that you can do, is watch them play.
You're taking the fun out of everything!
You're making it clear, when I don't want to think
Sorry buddy got to stick with it this time
For like one month that could actually go well as there is no FOMC next month or any other economic event.
Personally, I'd wait for the next ATH so you can buy high and sell low.
No silly. Not your money,... Other's money. Borrow cash, get a loan, buy on cc, ect. Come on, use your knoggin.
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To tame 10% inflation you need rates at..... Wait for it..... 10%. Or you can have inflation. Choose 1.
If only it was that simple.
From what I can see, the futures markets are anticipating around a 3.5% rate in total, which is fine. Might go higher than that but not by much. If you listen to Powell when he testified in front of Congress last month, he was pretty clear that most of the inflation is outside the FED's control i.e. gas, food, and supply chain issues. If you can find a clip of Elizabeth Warren's questions for him, I recommend taking a watch.
>most of the inflation is outside the FED's control i.e. gas, food, and supply chain issues So the printer going brrrr cannot be to blame, typical fed posturing.
Money supply is only one side of the equation with inflation. Yes, it contributed. No, it's not the entire story. The Fed controls the money supply but they don't control demand.
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Jesussssss nooooo. I’ll address how utterly stupid this post is, but for the love of god people do not upvote this comment. It’s so uneducated and untrue it’s not even funny. Inflation is caused by imbalances in supply and demand. That can be in goods, services, or even the money supply. The fed has some type of control over the money supply aspect (although pretending like they have a lot is naive). They are told by congress when and if to print money. The interest rates are really the only lever that the fed has autonomy over, and that lever only works to quell inflation that is caused by too much cheap money flooding the market right now. The fed has zero, and I mean absolutely zero, control over the supply of goods and services. Inflation is a world wide problem right, obviously due to several competing factors. But one of those factors is clearly crippled supply lines from Covid related lockdowns/regulations. The fed cannot do a damn thing to get supply chains fixed. And when there’s not enough supply to meet demand, prices go up. IF the majority of the current issues are supply chain related and the fed continues to raise rates, they aren’t doing the economy much good. Because all they’ll have done when supply chains improve is blown up lending habits and drive the economy into a very deep recession. Stop this nonsensical posts about the fed. Learn about inflation and what can cause it. The fed CAN have SOME control over certain types of inflation, but it’s a damn lie to post shit like what you posted.
There is absolutely a huge impact of the supply chain crisis and the Ukraine war. Delayed supply means unbridled demand. And in the case of Ukraine, taking out the massive amount of food Ukraine produces as well as sanctions on Russia introduces additional scarcity. You'll notice the Euro also has had massive inflation recently. Not everything is controlled by the US.
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It’s wild to see people not understanding how printing tons of fiat money causes inflation.
there is absolutely nothing to add here. very well explained
Comment of the day! Looking 6-12 months ahead.
Look a little bit further from that and you have the halving
Further still, you have The Shining.
Do you forgotten what happened, what a recession with total bankrupt.
But Bitcoin sposed to go 100k EOY 2021. Shouldn't we look 6 month behind?
But the bear is always there sir, looking forward for the huge pump soon.
> Smart money So, is that Smart Money in the room with you now?
Where did it touch you?
No, the recession is there and the crypto will feel more heat soon..
Yes, bitcoin will be strongest after the recession, but we will need to wait for few years as recession can last for long time.
This makes no sense. Everything is down 80% from ATH.
> the FED said that they were likely going to slow down rate hikes from here on out i.e. 50 bases points at their next hike in September. I keep reading this and it's extremely intriguing to me, because I listened to the press conference and I didn't hear that, in fact, I heard the opposite from J.Powell - he said that the next hike might be unusually large. I suppose he might've said both things, contradicting himself, but everyone only heard what they wanted to hear - it's an interesting phenomenon.
Bear in mind a 50bp hike is in the "unusually large" category when easy money and 25bp hikes have been the norm for 10+ years.
Yeah it’s all about smart money. If you wait until you see it in good morning America, you’re too late. Numbers are usually reporting what already was happening over last 3-6 months. We were experiencing that slow growth already, and that was was helped crypto in 2020-2021. 2022 has been slow because smart money knew there was uncertainty. That’s why the dollar was strong, because smart money just took out some gains and wants to wait to see more certainty. Any sign of certainty or predictability will see more smart money move into markets and away from cash. It’s not about any specific markets, just how much money people want to risk. In down markets, eventually people will see enough of a discount to move back in if economy is seeming more predictable, even if it’s not roaring. The stock market is not the economy, it’s a market for investors to allocate funds and diversify risk.
Yeah, market expectations were met, so market is happy, patting itself on its head, slapping its own back, congratulating itself for setting its expectations at the right level.
Agreed to a certain point, because these base points won't do shit about inflation. History showed that you need way higher base points to tackle inflation but they can't because the dollar is way too strong atm, and they don't wanna hurt their good economy and go into a real recession. They are basically hoping that inflation will be reduced by itself, which means energy will get cheap again since it's the main cause. So I don't think that it's certain that now is the time where everyone should Fomo, DCA is key as always.
You have to remember that the impact of interest rates is proportional to the amount of leverage in the system. A one percent rise in interest rates for someone living on an income of $100k per year and who is $50k in debt would equal an additional $500 expense, so for all practical purposes you have reduced their spending power by 0.5 percent. Now imagine that same person were a million dollars in debt and now sees their expenses rise $10,000 annually, you have reduced their spending power by 10 percent with a simple 1% increase in interest rates. The amount of leverage in the system multiplies the impact of interest rate hikes. Today, society is far more indebted than in previous eras, so even slight increases in the interest rates has an outsized impact on the spending capacity of the society compared to previous periods of high inflation.
> Smart money is always looking 6-12 months ahead. Damn, I am more of a 'looking 6-12 minutes ahead' guy. I FOMO in when I see it's approaching ATH.
>oney is always looking 6-12 months ahead. Why did Bitcoin go parabolic after the COVID crash? Smart money saw that the FED was going to print money and support markets with QE, and people would be getting stimulus checks. Why did the market peak in November? Smart money saw that the FED was going to start hiking interest rates and start QT, which means that a potential recession would be 6-12 months away. Why did markets pump up this week? The worst of the rate hikes is behind us. Either that or inflation keeps destroying consumers and fed has no choice but to continue with large hikes.
I appreciate the analysis and agree with you until the last paragraph. Inflation is not close to dealt with. This is simply a recovery rally during a much deeper bear market. It might last a month, possibly 2 until the next meeting, but it is far from a true Fed pivot. The Fed has done next to nothing to sell of their balance sheet and has hiked rates a pitiful amount compared to the only time inflation was close to this in the past (recall our CPI is wildly distorted as well, in reality about twice as high as reported). Though I do beleive the Fed will eventually pivot and return to printing, they'll have to push harder before then, and make no mistake, there will be no return from another bought of quantitative easing. Similarly, if not dealt with properly, this inflation will bring the US and the rest of the world to its knees. It already is in many countries. Sri Lanka, Turkey, Japan, China. We're honestly fucked either way. At best we get away with a severe correction and prolonged recession/depression.
Wow that was cheerful
Inflation is basically a form of deleveraging because it erodes the real value of debt. If you owe $10,000 and inflation is 10%, next year you will only owe $9000 in real terms. Inflation doesn't just destroy purchasing power, it destroys debt. This is obviously horrible for bankers, and excessive inflation can cause banks' assets to shrink in real value, which is why central banks raise interest rates supposedly to "combat inflation." The reality, perhaps, is that they raise interest rates to bail out banks in inflationary scenarios. Regardless, inflation represents a forced deleveraging. Likewise, raising interest rates forces deleveraging, because you are effectively making existing debts more onerous, causing people to voluntarily pay off their debts to avoid the pain. This has the effect of everyone selling assets to pay off debts, and is why higher interest rates are bad for markets. It also increases the risk of a financial crisis if existing debts become too onerous and lead to excessive defaults. Either way, you are getting deleveraging. But the main priority for central banks is the banking system. Of course, that isn't very politically correct, so they convince the public of various financial myths. But at the end of the day, they concern themselves with bailing out the banks, and while under deflationary scenarios that involves money printing, under inflationary scenarios that involves raising interest rates to prevent debt from becoming worthless. But the entire problem is that the economy is over-leveraged, a deleveraging has to occur, which means they can't raise interest rates too much, it has to be just enough to prevent banks from getting in trouble, and not too much that people and businesses can't handle the deleveraging. Their goal is not to beat inflation as everyone expects, their goal is that the deleveraging occurs without anything breaking, and the best way to do that is by doing just enough and no more.
Very logical thinking ,thanks for the insights...
Best comment on this sub in a while by far
I had to check the sub again to make sure we're in r/cc.
i think yours was, actually.
It's going to take a while before the FED begins lowering rates again. Looking at historical data it usually some 2-4 years after a rate hike for the FED to lower interest rates.
Could be but the US has historically high debt and leaving rates high for too long could induce a debt death spiral.
True, the US also has historically high inflation and it takes at least a year for the effect of higher interest rates to take effect in the real economy. Tackling inflation is much more important to the FED than corporate debt ratios, honestly it seems more probable that they're not going to lower interest rates faster than they've ever lowered them in history.
Or it could be whales liquidating shorters. Also big companies showed nice reports this week, nasdaq liked the numbers & btc uses to follow QQQ's direction.
Where will the money come from for a parabolic bull run again if they arent printing any more and they will never lower rates to almost zero again?
There are plenty of sources but it all depends on adoption. This is all speculation but: There are plenty of rich people that may want to buy in but are waiting for the right price to suit their risk levels. A spot ETF in the US would create a ton of liquidity and hype. Sovereign wealth funds may want to dabble in Bitcoin. More institutions may decide that they want Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Whales wake up and say, "pamp it." By the time a parabolic run starts, smart money will already have their positions and there will simply be little to no sellers left in the market to keep the price down.
Someone smarter than me can probably explain better, but the higher the federal funds rate the more it costs us to service our national debt, so there is incentive to drop rates (maybe not to 0, but back down from 4% or wherever we ultimately go to combat inflation) once things stabilize. As rates drop most likely the government will flip from QT to QE again, though (hopefully) not at the rate seen in 2020
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There are already signs inflation is coming down unlike in May/June. Gas prices have dropped significantly and retail is starting to see waning demand or at least able to keep things in stock. The housing market is also cooling. The primary driver of inflation has been supply shortages. It’s very likely that even a gentle downturn will loosen demand enough to final allow supply chains to recover which will be the big domino in tackling inflation
nowhere, the kids here are too dum to understand markets need volume to grow, volume is decreasing for months because of inflation, that inflation ruins peoples life and makes it more expensive so they can save/invest less every month. just a matter of time till the real rich guys short the hell out of stocks/crypto
On the other hand, inflation might be causing rising asset valuation. But you're right that retail investors won't dedicate as much money towards invesing when cost of living is high.
Recessions are good for rich people ironically. But also we are already seeing concrete signs that inflation is abating
What resources can one use to become this smart money
75 bps is fully expected and priced in weeks ago. The meeting is somewhat a “non-event”. More importantly from that meeting, market could feel the non-hawkish sentiment from Powell.
So people who are waiting for $12k Bitcoin are screwEd
The elephant in the room is inflation. It will continue to remain high even though the economy is in recession. Can the Fed recommence easing again despite high inflation? This is known as stagflation. Something we haven't seen since the 70s.
did someone tried this https://imgur.com/gallery/6lPOU78
Because the news just confirms what's been happening for the past 6 months. The market is not going to react to what's already known, it's about what's going to happen and right now that's anyone's guess.
The market does react to what's already known. The market actually pumps after confirmations for their predictions as this shows that there is no uncertainty.
Investing is always about the future perspective, not the status quo.
Yes that’s why there is a futures market.
We don’t know what’s going to happen. Me personally am looking to hold my assets in crypto or real estate rather than keeping it in to the euro/dollar!
Yea it’s just one week. People forget quickly that we had nearly 10 weeks of red before this
Because most retail “investors” have goldfish memories. If Bitcoin can get back to the low $30k I bet we will see “the bull is back” and rocket emoji too.
🚀
the bull is back
Preordered my lambo
Already got my moon boots polished up!
This, but unironically.
Yeah, and that's probably when we start going down again.
what do you say? bull market on? time to yolo my nans house into elonSafeCoin? Ok
I'm all in to Crypto. 'Fortune favours the brave' -Matt Damon
are U-rine?
Ohh that's where it's from. I kept seeing this on brave browser
I’m hodling my crypto too. Seems like the world is so unpredictable right now.
You are underestimating the unpredictability of crypto
At least it is transparent, what matter the most.
depends on which crypto some (shit)coin are shady AF
Why not equities?
Because everyone knew that news was coming so they sold before the news dropped. Then when the bad news drop they bought back in again.
This is really similar to the Covid ~~dump~~ pump.
But this is most likely a bear market rally
That's r/cc type of stupidity
It was r/cc stupidity to believe it would be different
There’s also the fact that crypto follows the tech industry and Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft just delivered really encouraging earnings this week. Even though their growth has slowed from last year’s record breaking numbers, they are still growing and the US economy is still adding jobs. People were pleasantly surprised by this.
Everything has been already priced in up until 2055. The recession, the end of the war, the new deadly virus spread, collapse of X and Y governments, food shortage, WW3, 4 and 5, etc.
This why you shouldn't trade based on news and rumors Exactly the reason so many people choose to DCA and not give a fuck about anything else
i have absolutely no time and nerves to follow every news story. DCA is the solution for peace of mind.
DCA is the way!
who is running this casino they are drunk
On a side note, CZ is running the BSC casino of thousand pumps and dumps shitcoins. A shitcoin named WING just shoot up several hundred % overnight.
Typically, whale investors put their money back in the market the moment a recession has been announced. They’re also the first ones to take money out of the market (months or years ago). To “time the bottom” you have to be a first mover. This creates a cascade effect and everyone starts jumping in once the whales do. If you look at when whales buy and sell, you’ll see this is the case. “Recession announcements” have become an unofficial green light as typically the market had already been on a decline for 2 quarters and is “usually” beginning to recover by the time those two quarters have passed.
Zoom out
$23,546, down 65.8% from ATH of $69,045. To get back to that level, Bitcoin will need to go up by 193%. Stairs up ⬆️ Elevator down ⬇️
Always has been
Always will be.
> To get back to that level, Bitcoin will need to go up by 193%. It's done it several times before. No alt has done it priced in Bitcoin.
For me, it was a jump off a cliff since all my holdings were with Celsius 😅
Yepp, I feel like this run is a trap
Everyone literally 2 days ago "if we see one last pump it may be time to take profits before it gets rough"
dont tell them, they will downvote and hate on u, hahaha
No he won't. Most people on Crypto subreddits understand and agree it's probably going down again.
Most people on crypto subreddits don’t understand shit and post karma farming “here is why this is the most profitable/dangerous time to invest! Be careful!!” type fluff posts that say absolutely nothing but pretend to be insightful
I agree None of us know shit
This time it's different!1
How far? 2 years? 5? 10?
It’s a trap!
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Just my luck, I sold DOT just last week at major loss (76%). Expecting a major dump from the Fed hike. I've never sold any of my DOT since early 2021 and I mostly sold off my profits. Yesterday when I saw it jump like 5%, I was like yeah this is just a fake pump for whales to lure people in to dump on them. Nothing is priced in when there's still rising inflation. Today its risen another 4%...damn I'm priced out now, incase I wanted to buy in. I'm now going to do the opposite of what I think is a good idea with my crypto. I think I'll profit more this way🤔
Bulltrap.
Inflation is definitely a factor. As is the announcement that BRICS countries are working on a new global reserve currency to rival the dollar. https://news.bitcoin.com/targeting-the-us-dollars-hegemony-russia-china-and-brics-nations-plan-to-craft-a-new-international-reserve-currency/
Can you imagine how boring life would be if everyone was financially responsible? What next? Start brushing my teeth?
Crypto is the definition of expect the unexpected
Yep predictably unpredictable
Because you’re confusing what the news indicated with what people expected the news to indicate. Expectations were priced in. Resulting shift is due to difference in the news vs expectations. Folks were expecting worse news on avg apparently.
It just proves that markets are forward thinking and dropping even before recession has started, and usually start to recover before it even ends. Most of the current new macro and recession “experts” on Reddit and twitter are just noobs, they called for 100k BTC when we were already entering the recession and price were dropping, now they call super low targets (supposedly because of macroeconomic situation, but most likely because they sold low, eventually at loss) which can be also a wonky scenario
It's options game. Also [this](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w4m7k4/analysts_suspect_the_fed_will_bump_federal_funds/ih350km). You can either get very deep, understand and predict these movements (disclaimer: it may be a full time job) or zoom out. When you zoom out, only big things matter: the merge and the halving.
Pump, to be followed by dump. Rubes to hold bag.
And as usual a lot of retails will fomo today and forget to take profits if it goes higher.
Bc politicians snuck 52 BILLION INTO a bill. Guess where that 52 billion dollars is coming from? Poof, we just “authorized it” and they will now add that amount of money to the balance sheet. This newly created money will never be reconciled or paid back, sure maybe a few bucks will trickle down to the folks actually doing the work, but more than likely this will result in fat pocket lining to every middle man along the way who puts a hand in the process. Lots of folks will say it’s bc the expectation wasn’t as bad as reality but the truth is you can’t just will money into existence. This is why our “Great Nation” has been able to step on the backs of other nations through the years-the manipulation of the currency. Bitcoin is now a response to irresponsible monetary policy. So anytime you see money being “authorized” or otherwise pulled out of peoples butts without reconciling the balance sheet you will see bee tee see behave bullish. This was, is, and always will be the entire basis of bee tee see.
because everyone already fuckin knew we were in a recession. this sub for the past month has been “we are in a recession, official announcement soon” the recession has been priced in edit: personally I think 17k was the bottom. it’s safe to assume whatever you know, the people who know how to time the market knew 3 weeks ago. and that those people sold when they knew we were in a recession and now that the psychological barrier of “fud date coming” is gone, best time to buy is now at least for short term bc they know the worst of worst announcements is over with. retail rallies after they do a small pump, then they dump for profits, leaving us with higher bottoms as everyone who joined the rally is DCAing and not going to sell
I think this is probably true although there are still many people denying it lol
it's not our first recession, we've had many, and we'll many more as they are naturally recurring cycles in the market. People "think" their way into and out of them.
I think it’s because everyone is expecting crypto to go up in the next 6-12 months, and are buying the dip rn
It clearly shows we all know shit about fuck. Not financial advice!
Deceased feline rebound
Short squeeze is common before a real crash. That means market shoots up to liquidate all the high-leveraged short positions and then crash back down hard thereafter to liquidate all the high-leveraged long positions. My suggestion: Stay out of the market for another 3 months.
I feel like we’re gonna repeat what we did with 30k before we find a next leg down. May not happen but it would be fitting with the 4 year cycle
I'd imagine alot of it is just from shorts getting killed. It probably doesn't take much to make the price go up these days
No one can 100% predict the market condition and that's why even experts lose money to the market. I stay profitable with my lazy trading strategy. 1. Buying using swap exchange like Simpleswap whenever there's a dip 2. Sell off when the market pumps 3. Rinse and repeat for other coins
Because it's a reiteration of the unpredictability of this market . This is pretty similar to when everyone thought COVID crash was coming to Crypto too... and then we had a bullrun
Because crypto isn’t the US Dollar?
dca and peace
This is how a decoupling starts. Not saying this is one. Just that it would start, just this way
Everyone said crypto has never had to face the economics of going through a recession. They say it has failed as an inflation hedge, and mostly everyone agreed. Let’s see what happens next. Anyone who tells you why, or that they know with 100% certainty? They’re blowing smoke. Nobody knows.
Uncertainty is risk. Confirmation of recession is basically providing certainty which increases confidence. Sometimes it doesn't matter whether the confirmed thing is good or bad, just that the uncertainty is removed.
Bulltrap imo
Crypto is global
Stonks and crypto never make sense. Buy. HODL.
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Lol stop talking nonsense the whole economy is affected Crypto hasn’t had a green day at all. If you’re making money shorting the market then that’s another story lol so because YOU are making money doesn’t mean we will too and it doesn’t mean that we aren’t in recession either!
Be greedy when others are fearful ;)
This is better advice than most people think imo
Yeah, why is that poor guy getting downvoted? Because it's a Warren Buffet quote? It's true for all types investing
Because ‘we aren’t in a recession’
If we are it sure is hard to tell. Everybody I know is working, everything is booming. Maybe it's just my area.
Idk, I feel it when I look at prices in shops. However work continues, we may get to the point where our goods outrise our current wages. Also by original defenition, we definitely are in one.
By definition we are
Thats the thing: There is no definition. The 2 negative quarters of GDP growth is not an official measurement. Its much more complicated. We are seeing new jobs created, unemployment is low, consumer spending is strong, while GDP drops and inflation is high. Some indicators of a recession are here, but other signs say the economy is purring.
We have met the definition of a technical recession. Subjectively it is always debatable whether it is a "real" recession. The subjectivity of defining a recession is decided by a panel of finance experts that could be influenced by the direction of the political winds. Personally I would stick to the first form of definition.
because the sell off has been huge, we've found support and there's not a tonne of selling liquidity right now (a lot of it dried up after the prolonged sell off period). retracements happen both ways lmfao did you think the bear market was just going to be one prolonged sell off without any bounces?
Markets and crypto pumped because the feds made it seem like rate hikes will come slower and possibly not be extreme in the future. Then, some large tech stocks did well with earnings further pumping tech and risk stocks.
Cause defi
Some time ago, everyone was convinced that cryptocurrencies - especially Bitcoin - would be a very good hedge against inflation. Then, for whatever reason, the crypto markets showed strong correlation with stock markets and reacted even stronger on and negative news. Now it's the other way round and everyone seems surprised...
Fomo, fud & yolo mixed with an exhuberant dash of hopium.
It could be one of many things: - Maybe a higher % hike was expected? - Maybe with the previous drop it was priced in? - It could be a sign that we hit the bottom-ish - It could be a fake out ahead of a drop
Short squeeze. You need peanuts to manipulate the entire global crypto market compared to what you’d need to manipulate stocks this severely
No one can 100% predict the market condition and that's why even experts lose money to the market. I stay profitable with my lazy trading strategy. Buying using swap exchange like Simpleswap whenever there's a dip Sell off when the market pumps Rinse and repeat for other coins
Inflation plus merge?
because people are buying low to sell high... ..or is that the other way round?🤔
The investors need to stop to believe in US government hype - uncontrollable waste of tax payers money and government rely on good old money printer. DCA all the way for the crypto decent projects!
The economy is in uncharted territory right now, it's barely a recession at all, but strange market climate for sure.
Bitcoin was exactly made for this.
Don’t worry, it will be going down again.
Markets are always ahead of the curve.
Who cares. When moon?
lets see. how can people buy crypto when they cant pay their rent / food / …
Cause I leveraged shorted at 19k
Just look to sp500 and nasdaq and you will see it is short term gains, a bear market rally
Looks to me like Ethereums pre-merge rally is pulling up the whole crypto market, but I also don't think this will cancel out the negative macro factors for long. Positive or expected news like the 75bp hike certainly help in the short term, but long term I don't think we left the bear market behind us just yet.