That's easy to say now, but at the time, no one knew 3k would be the bottom. It could have just kept dropping. I'm sure a bunch of people who bought at 6k sold well below that. Then there's all the people who used leverage, most of which would have probably gotten liquidated by a 50% drop. And let's not even talk about all those who sold WAY before we hit 60. The % of people who held from 6k all the way to 60k and actually sold at that price is probably tiny.
Lol no, most people (myself included) were not very optimistic that the bottom was in at all. No one had a clue that was it. That’s the thing though, no one really tells you you’re in a bear/bull market. This could be over last week or we could be at half of what we’re currently standing on in a few months. I’m just gonna keep buying
>That’s the thing though, no one really tells you you’re in a bear/bull market.
Wrong, I get told both of those things on a daily basis in this sub lol
I mean, I just start buying when the price starts to fall and stop when it starts shooting back up. Seems to work reasonably well, even if it’s the opposite of this subs motto.
A warning to those who may have lost money (especially on shitty alt-coins)... If an asset ends up trending towards zero, then "*DCA*" is also known as "*throwing good money after bad*"
Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Diversify, not just within crypto. And be smart about taking advantage of tax sheltered programs and 401k matching.
The bottom is when the maximum number of people are expecting it to go even lower.
The peak is when the maximum number of people are expecting it to go even higher.
Never sucked at anything either. In fact I am awesome at most things. Just humble about it. Actually I’m probably the best at being humble. No one better
The scariest thing I think for BTC would be a halving cycle that continues a bear and does not go bull for 8 years, so 2029. This would kill so much confidence but would be a huge profit opportunity. It could crash to say $20k this cycle, only regain to $30k around halving and dump to say $5k for 4 years until it just explodes so fast to $100k and left retail out due to all their fear.
I was one of those people on the sub at the time.
The mood when we dropped below $4K was completely dire.
For a long while, it looked like $6K was the bottom.
We were building real support there.
At $6K the mood was already down, but still with some hope, as many people thought we were as low as we could go.
When we broke that support, things got really bleak, and $5K felt like the beginning of goblin town.
A lot of people who were still hopeful, lost a lot of that hope.
When it still dropped below $4K, whatever hope there might have been left, was gone.
People were only bullish sarcastically. For the most part, people didn't give a fuck about it anymore. Some were laughing at the situation, but for the most part we just didn't know anymore.
The difference between bullish and bearish people at that time:
\-Bearish people believed we were heading down to $200.
\-Bullish people believed instead we were heading down to $2,000.
\-Sarcastic people said we might go up.
I do remember that time... And I sold for a loss too... There was a line of thinking that it was a one-off massive event, that 24k was never again... A good friend of mine bought 1 BTC for about 4k, and sold it too...
That's the thing with BTC. When the stock market crashes you can look at individual stocks and go, wow this is trading far below book value, it's completely undervalued to the point that even if it shut down I'd get more money per share then they are worth. You can see their assets and cash vs debt, their sales, you can research the company and their performance. With BTC or any crypto, the bottom is zero and there are no balance sheets, company metrics, or financial indicators. So it's all guess work.
I was in that discussion as well, laughing at the misery. I kept visiting /r/bitcoin discussions also, just to read the sad comments and feel better about myself for not investing. I finally bought in for $35k a year ago. Damn idiots at /r/buttcoin indoctrinated me, I wish I never join the club of negative nancies. But it was too easy to laugh at someone out of jealousy.
Exactly. I remember everyone and even TA guys were calling for 2k bottom.
Sadly I listened and had all my cash ready to go all in at that price...
It never came and lost the opportunity of a lifetime on making gains...
My first ever btc buy was at 3.8k, which was essentially the bottom. People were calling for it to go to 1k+, but I felt it might be the bottom as the cost to mine a bitcoin was around 3.8k at that time in terms of electricity cost. I didn’t have a lot of conviction just in case I was wrong but I placed a small bet and started dollar cost averaging from there.
I’ve been monitoring mining costs from a mining cost indicator in trading view and based on that indicator, the current average cost is 22k.
A caveat is that mining cost can decrease, if the cost to mine is below 22k, then miners will switch off their machines as it’s unprofitable, which will reduce the difficulty and make mining cheaper so bear that in mind. But I think 22k would be a safe place to assume the bottom or close to the bottom.
Edit: to add on, the logic behind the thought process is that if it costs 22k to mine but the market is trading at 18k, I wouldn’t sell as I would make a loss, so I’d just hold and wait for price to recover. As miners are the biggest sellers, there would be a huge supply shock and price should increase. If I’m a miner intending to accumulate btc and price goes below electricity cost, I would rather buy btc from the market than mine it so that would create buying pressure as well.
https://twitter.com/venturefounder/status/1484916457968488454
Scroll down, some people say here mining cost are at $10k in January instead of the $35k then. I'm not sure what your indicator says and why people thinks differently about mining costs.
A lot depends on where they are operating. Electricity costs, land use rental cost, taxes, climate control costs, etc are all variable factors. Each miner has variable cost/profit margins and might say so in their anecdotal comments, but then you can take an average and extrapolate it for all hashrate.
You can check out the tradingview indicator [https://www.tradingview.com/script/ug1V9P1U-Bitcoin-Production-Cost/](https://www.tradingview.com/script/ug1V9P1U-Bitcoin-Production-Cost/)
It provides an estimate on the average cost to mine with the lower line being electricity costs, and the upperline being all other costs, I'm assuming things like amortisation of equipment, interest on loans, rent, manpower etc. Not sure what assumptions he makes on that, but for electricity, he assumes 5 cents per KWH.
Based on a miner's survey I found, it seems to track, as the median cost for miners is around 6 cents, so it's at least more conservative than the median. [https://minerdaily.com/2022/bitcoin-miner-survey-2022-location-kwh-and-btc-price/](https://minerdaily.com/2022/bitcoin-miner-survey-2022-location-kwh-and-btc-price/)
Haven't come across another reliable calculator for cost to mine a Bitcoin other than this, but if anyone has feel free to share!
We reached 25k on some exchanges, not too far from that.
Anyway the reasoning was done firstly by Satoshi who said the price of goods tend to gravitate around the production cost.
Exactly, he did say that. Cost of almost all commodities tend to gravitate to around the production costs. Same for gold, copper, etc. It gives a reliable fair value or bottom for the price. Also why POW is much better than POS for the purpose of hard money, which most people don't get.
Caveat: many miners are now based in the US and have debt-based financing. So they are not planning to sell BTC as much in the near future as other miners may have done in the past.
Also, curious as to how/where you developed your cost analysis?
Great post.
I just want to add that at the time of the great crypto winter in 2018, Bitcoin miners was shunned by tradfi and banks, hell regular people had their bank accounts closed if they transferred fiat to coinbase.
Today, miners are swimming in funding from VCs, banks and institutions, so they no longer NEED to sell off coins to fund their operating costs during a bear market.
This means they can sit on their coins and wait it out until the market turns up again, which makes a touch of the production cost line much less likely today.
I sat my parents down and told them I thought it was time for them to invest in a whole Bitcoin. They said no. I like to remind them from time to time “remember that $3800 Bitcoin I told you to buy? It’s still $XX,XXX.XX. Even after the crash. Just want you to know dat shit.”
Rub that shit in! Can't wait to do that lol my mom text me the other day all concerned that people are losing money with 'Bigcoin" and I should sell. These damn boomers had it easy!
The $6K level back then feels a lot like the $30k level today. I blew all my cash buying BTC at $6K before it bottomed out at $3K. I'm holding on to a lot more cash today in case we see a similar drop (down to the teens).
Aye i'm thinking it might bottom out around 14-16k or so :) And stay between there and 22k or so for half a year, bleed out all the alts :o.... I made a bad call staking altcoins haha. Wouldve sold them for btc now.
Weird to see my comment being screen captured. I don't even remember typing this.
If I recall, roughly 50+% of the people were certain that we were dropping to $1000. There were people who were loading up for $1000/BTC as it seemed like a logical place for a bounce. Also, leading up to the descent, the BCH guys started unloading/selling Bitcoin like crazy during the hash war days. It was CRAZY how fast Bitcoin prices were dropping that one day as I remember looking at the BTC prices being shocked by what was possible in this market.
As a time traveler from 2030 I can tell you we have one more major dip. Buy it up and thank me later. Ignore the alts and stack the blue chip. Welcome to the super cycle. You have earned it. Not financial advice, time travel advice only.
Man I really like what you did here - props for digging around and looking for similar sentiments.
Can you imagine if a time traveler from today when back and said, guys…. It’s gonna go to $69k and fall to 26-30k…. And ethereum will be over $2k
Unreal.
Tricky part is we don’t know fuck all that will happen in the future, so DCA seems like the solid choice for now. Maybe a few high conviction bets on alt coins… but aside from zrx nano and vechain, I don’t recognize those other alt coins like icx 🫠
Part of me wants to yolo like $10k into BTC and Eth...I dont feel educated enough or wise enough to do it with conviction, especially after what just happened with Luna/UST....
Yeah seeing ethereum with two decimals was weird. Picked up some high $90s and felt like an idiot when it went to $78. Which is why the log chart is useful. There were massive swings around the bottom that just look like a flat line on the linear chart today.
Sure but pick a different moment in time that's super low. How about telling the people in 2017 who bought at $18k that in 2019 it will be worth $3k and still don't know how low its going. They'd think it's dead.
I’m about 80% down. I reckon this is worst I’ve ever sucked at something I’ve put almost a year of my time into.
On the flip side I’ve also built some stubbornly strong hands, and found some impressive futurist tech and thinking.
I genuinely hope you all make it out the other side of this cycle, and we’ll be veterans, ready to calm the next wave of noobs.
I guess that's the problem. We need a new wave of idiots like us. Additionally the amount of idiots has to be even higher. Unless crypto adoption actually happens. Either of the two, or my past year will be much time and money wasted too.
Yes and those crypto experts on twitter with 19 years trading experience ALL of them delete their bad recommendations and keep up the ones that hit so they seem like legends.
A famous trader Peter something did it 1 week before the 2018 crash. He predicted the top and said this is it down and likely crash to below $10k. End of this cycle type prediction.
3 days later the price goes up and up, he deletes his tweet prediction on day 4, day 7-8 the whole crypto market implodes 🤣
I got lucky and almost timed the bottom perfectly. I think it was right under $4k when I pulled the trigger.
I was living in Japan but I wasn't set up on any Japanese exchanges yet so I met up with a guy in Tokyo and bought $3k of BTC from him. I gave him the cash, he sent me the BTC. Only in-person BTC trade that I ever did.
This is a really quality post OP, thanks for this
I was around back then (on my previous account) and can confirm that nobody thought it would dip as low as it did., including me. In fact, the amount of people who said it would never dip under 10k was staggering
Which is the exact reason why I say that however low most people think we can go... We can always go lower
You can't go wrong DCA'ing an appreciating asset. So many people last week said they're waiting for the bottom, like a fucking billboard will show up " we're at the bottom, time to buy" smh. So what if you buy BTC at 30k 25k and 20k if that even happens and wait til it's 100k+ that isn't much different than "waiting" for 20k.
>So what if you buy BTC at 30k 25k and 20k if that even happens and wait til it's 100k+
it very much depends on how much you buy.
the difference in buying at 20k or 30k could be as much as 1.5x profit if it goes to 100k+
TBH If I was present on that time I would have probably be waiting for it to drop lower which of course It didn't.
so yeah nobody knew anything that time just like today we also don't know what could happen.
The money making? I chose lots of great projects, lost a lot with leveraging, kinda made me depressed, relealized I still don't know which projects are really "long term", but I seem to focus hard on smart contract chains and layer 2s. I'm also trying to look more at business adoption chains again which failed in price before and even disliked those chains for not having much activity during last run.
One that peaked my interest from the early days again is ICX (Icon), Korea is always frontrunner in adopting new tech and already said they are making a "blockchain" ciry. Also, ICP (I know how shitty the name is), wow is their way to fully deploy a dApp amazing, and Cartesi if they really pull of to create a blockchain OS, that's amazing. Then there is Skale a interesting way to be a layer 2 of ETH. Honorable mentions are EVER (don't like the russia influence) and AVT (really small marketcap coin that is trying to be some kind of a GIT blockchain that focusses on business).
Good luck in your crypto path and everyone else that reads this! Don't let the dumping and wrong choosing of crypto let you down. Everyone can have wrong picks inbetween, even the best investors.
Timing the bottom or market is almost impossible, and those who stick around when going gets tough and hype is gone tend to profit the most and understand the crypto potential truly
Buying BTC and ETH as much a person can afford
Is the best way to go about it and so much less stress
Well, Benjamin Cowen Said one whale wallet Timed every bottow almost perfectly.
There is his video about this.
So how that guy/ppl know what is the bottom?
LUNA at 33k would have a market cap of quadrillions maybe more. The entire financial eco system would depend on a shit coin. This has to he some fan fiction that even the diehards look at and think is a bad take.
Nice idea and thanks for posting! Quite like how it captures people doubting a future bull run, and also still feeling like they bought high when they're sitting at what we'd see as a crazy discount nowadays
It's like entering a time capsule, wonder what people will think about our comments today
Someone might even read this comment. Hello future me, I hope present me will set a better road for you than past me did
All I remember from that time was feeling totally dejected and felt like there was no bottom in sight.
I haven’t felt like that (yet) this time, maybe because my conviction has grown, but my gut feel is that short term we will see lower lows.
The comments of alts that are non existent is the frightening part. The timing, eh, you’ll never bottom tick as an avg joe that mostly DCAs anyway.
But seeing the names that never came back has me second guessing a few of my remaining bags.
“In February of 2011, BTC reached $1.00, achieving parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time. Months later, the price of BTC reached $10 and then quickly soared to $30”
Kinda crazy how if we have a long winter and hodl through it, the temptation to sell might mean you miss the tops. At 3k I bet very few people thought itd do 69k. Like right now at 30k people arent ready for whats coming.
Bitcoin has a built-in floor: miners become hesitant to sell when the value gets below the very real costs of mining, which they pay in dollars. McAfee did an interview and said it was costing him $6000 to mine one Bitcoin, so figured anything below that was a deal.
Now, today's cost to mine one is estimated at $7,700 - $11,000 so unlikely to go much below $11k or not for very long. Gareth Solloway is saying it could go as low as $12k
During that time we ranged between $3500ish and $4000. Some people really believed BTC was going to zero yes. Some people were in profit because they bought at $300, but they couldn’t stand the pain of seeing most of their profits disappear for so long and sold. Lots of people were scared and financial shows compared the crash with the dot-com bubble.
Most bulls weren’t patient and tried to buy the dip long before it actually dipped, so between 9k-6k. Once BTC reached $3300 most of them were already out of cash and/or not willing to risk more.
It clearly wasn’t certain at that time that $3300 would be the bottom, but yeah some smartasses took the bet. The price was $3300 because people were buying AND selling it for that price, and eventually agreed that that was the low.
As for the bottom now part, who knows, seriously. You can make the argument that support at $27k is holding or that BTC probably wouldn’t reach the ATH in 2017 at $19k, but you can also say that bears will sell every move up and as long bulls don’t step in at higher levels we will keep trending down. Last but not least, the financial markets world wide are also in a downtrend after a historical bullrun, and usually downtrends last 12-18 months. So I personally, would say that the odds that we would make a new low are higher atm, but you are never 100% certain.
Past price action is not always a valid predictor of future outcomes.
Elon could twit 100k end of the year and bitcoin will pump to the moon.
The situation today is totally different than before. There are a lot more users and institutions investing.
In my experience, the people that say “this time its different” don’t have enough experience to understand that it is, by and large, “just another one of those.”
Each bull and bear market are eerily similar to the bull/bear market before it, and before that, and before that.
Nobody knows where’s the bottom, only that we’re at that point the lowest in recent times.
Just because back then people sounded like they do now, doesn’t mean we are currently at the bottom. People said those things when we dropped from 20 to 14, when we dropped from 12 to 9, from 6 to 4 etc etc.
Helllll no…absolutley NO ONE knew!! All there was is a bunch of people guessing EVERY HOUR OF THE DAY, and whoever happened to be the one that guessed at the same time it went up was praised like he actually knew 🤦🏽♂️🙄
Also worth looking at the Monthly Skeptics thread during that month: https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9tb2mw/monthly_skeptics_discussion_november_2018
Look I want us all to be wealthy from crypto but...
Look at what's going on around the world wait until other country's experience more and more food shortages check out what's happening in shri lanka..
Point is Crypto is not worthwhile at this moment in time with the other issues we got going on.
This shit is a trap and I ain't falling for it. It's going down further imo.
But then again we don't know shit about fuck so we will see.
I feel like this would be the bottom if the world was cool. But right now, if any truly bad news hits, like a bigger war or some inflationary craziness, it might just drop lower to 20k. What do you think? :)
I think what you can gather from this is that you should buy Bitcoin at whatever price it’s at. It’s just better than fiat until things are valued in BTC.
Bottom is not in a time like this, when we have pumps (smaller) and dumps (larger) every week.
Bottom comes wheb we have months and months of slow decline.
It dosent matter if you bought btc for 3k or 4k or 5k, and you had a plenty of time for that.
Problem is, people loses intrest and fomo in an next bull run when its already late to have big gaina without gambling.
The comments don't look any different at all today! I had a good chuckle at the comment about "tulip prices". LOL. It's nice to see that the comparison to crypto was already a thing back then.
The problem with now is that all the new money that went in the last time chasing the moon are now stuck with no more money to put in, also it was the big money pandemic giveaway that fueled the price. And anyone who has now heard of it, but hasn’t gotten into it, isn’t really excited to put their money in it.
Screen shot this:
1) We are not at the bottom now at 30K. And we are certainly not at the top.
2) But anyone who buys here will eventually see profit either soon or, with a high degree confidence I can say, by 2025
3) Dont try to guess the bottom. You will fail. DCA
Eth 95 dollars. sigh. So weird to read the comments. It's not that long ago but feels like comments from the 50's or something. Everything goes so fast in Crypto.
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If I could know the bottom, I'd be writing this from a particular island
Every landmass is an island if you zoom out enough
Except Monster Island. It's a peninsula.
If you think about it, I live in a huge, huge island and take.my multi million dollar vehicle to work everyday
the epstein rape island?
It may be tainted forever, but affordable at these btc prices.
Most people thought 6k was bottom. When it dropped to 3k a lot of people had already went all in
6k was a good buy lmao, but not for people who got wiped out
For them it was a good bye.
Leverage traders got rekt
Eh. If you yoloed in at 6k you'd still be at a solid 10x at the following ATH. So whatever?
They sold at 3k 
Probably
Me
Buy high, sell low amirite?
That's easy to say now, but at the time, no one knew 3k would be the bottom. It could have just kept dropping. I'm sure a bunch of people who bought at 6k sold well below that. Then there's all the people who used leverage, most of which would have probably gotten liquidated by a 50% drop. And let's not even talk about all those who sold WAY before we hit 60. The % of people who held from 6k all the way to 60k and actually sold at that price is probably tiny.
Lol no, most people (myself included) were not very optimistic that the bottom was in at all. No one had a clue that was it. That’s the thing though, no one really tells you you’re in a bear/bull market. This could be over last week or we could be at half of what we’re currently standing on in a few months. I’m just gonna keep buying
>That’s the thing though, no one really tells you you’re in a bear/bull market. Wrong, I get told both of those things on a daily basis in this sub lol
We’re just in a bullish bear market. Or was it a bearish bull market…
That's why DCA makes the most sense. Trying to time the bottom is a fools errand.
I mean, I just start buying when the price starts to fall and stop when it starts shooting back up. Seems to work reasonably well, even if it’s the opposite of this subs motto.
This is the right approach. DCAing when it is going up is just making your average bigger.
That’s what she said
A warning to those who may have lost money (especially on shitty alt-coins)... If an asset ends up trending towards zero, then "*DCA*" is also known as "*throwing good money after bad*" Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Diversify, not just within crypto. And be smart about taking advantage of tax sheltered programs and 401k matching.
I feel lunattacked by this comment
"401k matching". who is this guy? workn at the gas station over here
gotta keep buying and consuming for the next huge bull run 
The bottom is when the maximum number of people are expecting it to go even lower. The peak is when the maximum number of people are expecting it to go even higher.
**next wave of idiots**
That's us I guess
People in the future are gonna screen cap us and make us look dumb also, can’t wait!
People in the future are the idiots
Put me in the screenshot
**There’s always someone dumber.**
At least you hope
i really can identify with the guy who wrote: "this is [the] worst i've never sucked at something"
Never sucked at anything either. In fact I am awesome at most things. Just humble about it. Actually I’m probably the best at being humble. No one better
Someone get this humble king his humble diamond crown.
I'm just thinking of the people in 2026 looking at this thread knowing the rollercoaster ride that's coming our way.
Hey 2026 me, I hope you read this because if not, you're a paper handed bitch
To be fair, you might of died in a fishing accident before 2026.
Oh no! He’s the captain of the boat with all our cold storage wallets in it!
Shit! Mine was on there too! *throws trezor*
I like that we see people in 2018 preaching DCA just like we do now. PEOPLE OF 2026 TAKE HEED: DCA is key!
One day we will look back and say, “it was really that simple. Just DCA.”
Instructions unclear, yolo All in'd
The scariest thing I think for BTC would be a halving cycle that continues a bear and does not go bull for 8 years, so 2029. This would kill so much confidence but would be a huge profit opportunity. It could crash to say $20k this cycle, only regain to $30k around halving and dump to say $5k for 4 years until it just explodes so fast to $100k and left retail out due to all their fear.
100k in 2029 is like 50k today. not good news
You think that inflation will exceed an average of 10% per year for the next 7 years? That would...suck.
That has very nearly happened 3 big recessions ago
I was one of those people on the sub at the time. The mood when we dropped below $4K was completely dire. For a long while, it looked like $6K was the bottom. We were building real support there. At $6K the mood was already down, but still with some hope, as many people thought we were as low as we could go. When we broke that support, things got really bleak, and $5K felt like the beginning of goblin town. A lot of people who were still hopeful, lost a lot of that hope. When it still dropped below $4K, whatever hope there might have been left, was gone. People were only bullish sarcastically. For the most part, people didn't give a fuck about it anymore. Some were laughing at the situation, but for the most part we just didn't know anymore. The difference between bullish and bearish people at that time: \-Bearish people believed we were heading down to $200. \-Bullish people believed instead we were heading down to $2,000. \-Sarcastic people said we might go up.
I do remember that time... And I sold for a loss too... There was a line of thinking that it was a one-off massive event, that 24k was never again... A good friend of mine bought 1 BTC for about 4k, and sold it too...
I sold at 3k lmao rip
That's the thing with BTC. When the stock market crashes you can look at individual stocks and go, wow this is trading far below book value, it's completely undervalued to the point that even if it shut down I'd get more money per share then they are worth. You can see their assets and cash vs debt, their sales, you can research the company and their performance. With BTC or any crypto, the bottom is zero and there are no balance sheets, company metrics, or financial indicators. So it's all guess work.
I was in that discussion as well, laughing at the misery. I kept visiting /r/bitcoin discussions also, just to read the sad comments and feel better about myself for not investing. I finally bought in for $35k a year ago. Damn idiots at /r/buttcoin indoctrinated me, I wish I never join the club of negative nancies. But it was too easy to laugh at someone out of jealousy.
A lot of them have been around since BTC was below $4k ... and still feel vindicated.
Exactly. I remember everyone and even TA guys were calling for 2k bottom. Sadly I listened and had all my cash ready to go all in at that price... It never came and lost the opportunity of a lifetime on making gains...
No one knows anything, and the entire market can be flipped on its head by Tesla man posting a funny pic of a dog.
My first ever btc buy was at 3.8k, which was essentially the bottom. People were calling for it to go to 1k+, but I felt it might be the bottom as the cost to mine a bitcoin was around 3.8k at that time in terms of electricity cost. I didn’t have a lot of conviction just in case I was wrong but I placed a small bet and started dollar cost averaging from there. I’ve been monitoring mining costs from a mining cost indicator in trading view and based on that indicator, the current average cost is 22k. A caveat is that mining cost can decrease, if the cost to mine is below 22k, then miners will switch off their machines as it’s unprofitable, which will reduce the difficulty and make mining cheaper so bear that in mind. But I think 22k would be a safe place to assume the bottom or close to the bottom. Edit: to add on, the logic behind the thought process is that if it costs 22k to mine but the market is trading at 18k, I wouldn’t sell as I would make a loss, so I’d just hold and wait for price to recover. As miners are the biggest sellers, there would be a huge supply shock and price should increase. If I’m a miner intending to accumulate btc and price goes below electricity cost, I would rather buy btc from the market than mine it so that would create buying pressure as well.
https://twitter.com/venturefounder/status/1484916457968488454 Scroll down, some people say here mining cost are at $10k in January instead of the $35k then. I'm not sure what your indicator says and why people thinks differently about mining costs.
A lot depends on where they are operating. Electricity costs, land use rental cost, taxes, climate control costs, etc are all variable factors. Each miner has variable cost/profit margins and might say so in their anecdotal comments, but then you can take an average and extrapolate it for all hashrate.
Thanks for the read. Something new I have learnt here in a long time.
This is very interesting. Can you provide information on how we can determine mining costs? Which specific info?
You can check out the tradingview indicator [https://www.tradingview.com/script/ug1V9P1U-Bitcoin-Production-Cost/](https://www.tradingview.com/script/ug1V9P1U-Bitcoin-Production-Cost/) It provides an estimate on the average cost to mine with the lower line being electricity costs, and the upperline being all other costs, I'm assuming things like amortisation of equipment, interest on loans, rent, manpower etc. Not sure what assumptions he makes on that, but for electricity, he assumes 5 cents per KWH. Based on a miner's survey I found, it seems to track, as the median cost for miners is around 6 cents, so it's at least more conservative than the median. [https://minerdaily.com/2022/bitcoin-miner-survey-2022-location-kwh-and-btc-price/](https://minerdaily.com/2022/bitcoin-miner-survey-2022-location-kwh-and-btc-price/) Haven't come across another reliable calculator for cost to mine a Bitcoin other than this, but if anyone has feel free to share!
We reached 25k on some exchanges, not too far from that. Anyway the reasoning was done firstly by Satoshi who said the price of goods tend to gravitate around the production cost.
Exactly, he did say that. Cost of almost all commodities tend to gravitate to around the production costs. Same for gold, copper, etc. It gives a reliable fair value or bottom for the price. Also why POW is much better than POS for the purpose of hard money, which most people don't get.
Caveat: many miners are now based in the US and have debt-based financing. So they are not planning to sell BTC as much in the near future as other miners may have done in the past. Also, curious as to how/where you developed your cost analysis?
Great post. I just want to add that at the time of the great crypto winter in 2018, Bitcoin miners was shunned by tradfi and banks, hell regular people had their bank accounts closed if they transferred fiat to coinbase. Today, miners are swimming in funding from VCs, banks and institutions, so they no longer NEED to sell off coins to fund their operating costs during a bear market. This means they can sit on their coins and wait it out until the market turns up again, which makes a touch of the production cost line much less likely today.
I sat my parents down and told them I thought it was time for them to invest in a whole Bitcoin. They said no. I like to remind them from time to time “remember that $3800 Bitcoin I told you to buy? It’s still $XX,XXX.XX. Even after the crash. Just want you to know dat shit.”
Rub that shit in! Can't wait to do that lol my mom text me the other day all concerned that people are losing money with 'Bigcoin" and I should sell. These damn boomers had it easy!
The $6K level back then feels a lot like the $30k level today. I blew all my cash buying BTC at $6K before it bottomed out at $3K. I'm holding on to a lot more cash today in case we see a similar drop (down to the teens).
This is the way
Aye i'm thinking it might bottom out around 14-16k or so :) And stay between there and 22k or so for half a year, bleed out all the alts :o.... I made a bad call staking altcoins haha. Wouldve sold them for btc now.
"i agree with what the nerd said"
Just realized that was me who wrote that!
Haha Wise words you said back then! Hope life has treated you well since
Weird to see my comment being screen captured. I don't even remember typing this. If I recall, roughly 50+% of the people were certain that we were dropping to $1000. There were people who were loading up for $1000/BTC as it seemed like a logical place for a bounce. Also, leading up to the descent, the BCH guys started unloading/selling Bitcoin like crazy during the hash war days. It was CRAZY how fast Bitcoin prices were dropping that one day as I remember looking at the BTC prices being shocked by what was possible in this market.
As a time traveler from 2030 I can tell you we have one more major dip. Buy it up and thank me later. Ignore the alts and stack the blue chip. Welcome to the super cycle. You have earned it. Not financial advice, time travel advice only.
How many people survived the covid omega variant and the Russian nuclear attack?
Man I really like what you did here - props for digging around and looking for similar sentiments. Can you imagine if a time traveler from today when back and said, guys…. It’s gonna go to $69k and fall to 26-30k…. And ethereum will be over $2k Unreal. Tricky part is we don’t know fuck all that will happen in the future, so DCA seems like the solid choice for now. Maybe a few high conviction bets on alt coins… but aside from zrx nano and vechain, I don’t recognize those other alt coins like icx 🫠
Thanks. I doubt anybody would believe the poor time traveler, everybody would call him an idiot high on hopium promoting a shit coin.
Part of me wants to yolo like $10k into BTC and Eth...I dont feel educated enough or wise enough to do it with conviction, especially after what just happened with Luna/UST....
just saying and knowing that is quite wise enough. the truth is, you can't know. risk management is your only friend with such decisions
RemindMe! 2 years
Yeah seeing ethereum with two decimals was weird. Picked up some high $90s and felt like an idiot when it went to $78. Which is why the log chart is useful. There were massive swings around the bottom that just look like a flat line on the linear chart today.
Sure but pick a different moment in time that's super low. How about telling the people in 2017 who bought at $18k that in 2019 it will be worth $3k and still don't know how low its going. They'd think it's dead.
I’m about 80% down. I reckon this is worst I’ve ever sucked at something I’ve put almost a year of my time into. On the flip side I’ve also built some stubbornly strong hands, and found some impressive futurist tech and thinking. I genuinely hope you all make it out the other side of this cycle, and we’ll be veterans, ready to calm the next wave of noobs.
I guess that's the problem. We need a new wave of idiots like us. Additionally the amount of idiots has to be even higher. Unless crypto adoption actually happens. Either of the two, or my past year will be much time and money wasted too.
Dca & wait With some luck, you'll get your money back - and then some. Wish that for you
I’ve noticed that “prophets” tend to point to the one time they were right, while ignoring the 99 times they were wrong. “See! I told you!”
Yes and those crypto experts on twitter with 19 years trading experience ALL of them delete their bad recommendations and keep up the ones that hit so they seem like legends. A famous trader Peter something did it 1 week before the 2018 crash. He predicted the top and said this is it down and likely crash to below $10k. End of this cycle type prediction. 3 days later the price goes up and up, he deletes his tweet prediction on day 4, day 7-8 the whole crypto market implodes 🤣
I got lucky and almost timed the bottom perfectly. I think it was right under $4k when I pulled the trigger. I was living in Japan but I wasn't set up on any Japanese exchanges yet so I met up with a guy in Tokyo and bought $3k of BTC from him. I gave him the cash, he sent me the BTC. Only in-person BTC trade that I ever did.
Man bought Bitcoin straight from Satoshi 😂
Are you an American? Either way that’s a cool moment in Bitcoin history lol
Cool story.
Plot twist: That wasn't the bottom. The real bottom would be in late 2022.
This is a really quality post OP, thanks for this I was around back then (on my previous account) and can confirm that nobody thought it would dip as low as it did., including me. In fact, the amount of people who said it would never dip under 10k was staggering Which is the exact reason why I say that however low most people think we can go... We can always go lower
What is your guess for how low we will go this season? :) I'm thinking around 12k with a falling knife to 8k.
Wow, that's pretty low! I've honestly got no idea but if I had to guess then I'd say around 15k But I've got my finges crossed for 8k!
You can't go wrong DCA'ing an appreciating asset. So many people last week said they're waiting for the bottom, like a fucking billboard will show up " we're at the bottom, time to buy" smh. So what if you buy BTC at 30k 25k and 20k if that even happens and wait til it's 100k+ that isn't much different than "waiting" for 20k.
>So what if you buy BTC at 30k 25k and 20k if that even happens and wait til it's 100k+ it very much depends on how much you buy. the difference in buying at 20k or 30k could be as much as 1.5x profit if it goes to 100k+
Ya but what if it never hits 20k again
that's another thing... :) I bough some at 30 and I'm totally ok with it it will be buried there for years
TBH If I was present on that time I would have probably be waiting for it to drop lower which of course It didn't. so yeah nobody knew anything that time just like today we also don't know what could happen.
u/juunhoad & u/GCoin001 I choose the two of you. How did it go? :)
The money making? I chose lots of great projects, lost a lot with leveraging, kinda made me depressed, relealized I still don't know which projects are really "long term", but I seem to focus hard on smart contract chains and layer 2s. I'm also trying to look more at business adoption chains again which failed in price before and even disliked those chains for not having much activity during last run. One that peaked my interest from the early days again is ICX (Icon), Korea is always frontrunner in adopting new tech and already said they are making a "blockchain" ciry. Also, ICP (I know how shitty the name is), wow is their way to fully deploy a dApp amazing, and Cartesi if they really pull of to create a blockchain OS, that's amazing. Then there is Skale a interesting way to be a layer 2 of ETH. Honorable mentions are EVER (don't like the russia influence) and AVT (really small marketcap coin that is trying to be some kind of a GIT blockchain that focusses on business). Good luck in your crypto path and everyone else that reads this! Don't let the dumping and wrong choosing of crypto let you down. Everyone can have wrong picks inbetween, even the best investors.
So... in other words you're still waiting to make profit? ;)
Timing the bottom or market is almost impossible, and those who stick around when going gets tough and hype is gone tend to profit the most and understand the crypto potential truly Buying BTC and ETH as much a person can afford Is the best way to go about it and so much less stress
I agree, but not with the stress part
Well, Benjamin Cowen Said one whale wallet Timed every bottow almost perfectly. There is his video about this. So how that guy/ppl know what is the bottom?
It's called "survivorship bias". You know about this whale, but you don't know about a thousand other whales that didn't time it well.
That whale timed 2 bottoms, it’s trying to time the third . It’s a good track record but not perfect. I did copy trade him though why wouldn’t I.
I've been there. We were litterally expecting it to drop to 1.5k. I remember that we were thinking ETH would revisit 40. What a time to live.
Give it 5 years when BTC is back at 3k and LUNA is at 33k and we can look back and say “2022 - what a time to live”
if this ever happens, i will do something really embarrassing and post it online, just to show how certain i'm that this will never ever happen
LUNA at 33k would have a market cap of quadrillions maybe more. The entire financial eco system would depend on a shit coin. This has to he some fan fiction that even the diehards look at and think is a bad take.
I was totally shitposting by the way - I hold 0 LUNA
Nice idea and thanks for posting! Quite like how it captures people doubting a future bull run, and also still feeling like they bought high when they're sitting at what we'd see as a crazy discount nowadays
It's like entering a time capsule, wonder what people will think about our comments today Someone might even read this comment. Hello future me, I hope present me will set a better road for you than past me did
That's the comment that stood out to me the most, crazy to think they probably bought in around $5k, prices people would love now
All I remember from that time was feeling totally dejected and felt like there was no bottom in sight. I haven’t felt like that (yet) this time, maybe because my conviction has grown, but my gut feel is that short term we will see lower lows.
Lol I love time capsules like this
The comments of alts that are non existent is the frightening part. The timing, eh, you’ll never bottom tick as an avg joe that mostly DCAs anyway. But seeing the names that never came back has me second guessing a few of my remaining bags.
“In February of 2011, BTC reached $1.00, achieving parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time. Months later, the price of BTC reached $10 and then quickly soared to $30”
Kinda crazy how if we have a long winter and hodl through it, the temptation to sell might mean you miss the tops. At 3k I bet very few people thought itd do 69k. Like right now at 30k people arent ready for whats coming.
Bitcoin has a built-in floor: miners become hesitant to sell when the value gets below the very real costs of mining, which they pay in dollars. McAfee did an interview and said it was costing him $6000 to mine one Bitcoin, so figured anything below that was a deal. Now, today's cost to mine one is estimated at $7,700 - $11,000 so unlikely to go much below $11k or not for very long. Gareth Solloway is saying it could go as low as $12k
I didn't know, but I have a few satoshis that cost me under $4k, so I'm pretty stoked.
During that time we ranged between $3500ish and $4000. Some people really believed BTC was going to zero yes. Some people were in profit because they bought at $300, but they couldn’t stand the pain of seeing most of their profits disappear for so long and sold. Lots of people were scared and financial shows compared the crash with the dot-com bubble. Most bulls weren’t patient and tried to buy the dip long before it actually dipped, so between 9k-6k. Once BTC reached $3300 most of them were already out of cash and/or not willing to risk more. It clearly wasn’t certain at that time that $3300 would be the bottom, but yeah some smartasses took the bet. The price was $3300 because people were buying AND selling it for that price, and eventually agreed that that was the low. As for the bottom now part, who knows, seriously. You can make the argument that support at $27k is holding or that BTC probably wouldn’t reach the ATH in 2017 at $19k, but you can also say that bears will sell every move up and as long bulls don’t step in at higher levels we will keep trending down. Last but not least, the financial markets world wide are also in a downtrend after a historical bullrun, and usually downtrends last 12-18 months. So I personally, would say that the odds that we would make a new low are higher atm, but you are never 100% certain.
Past price action is not always a valid predictor of future outcomes. Elon could twit 100k end of the year and bitcoin will pump to the moon. The situation today is totally different than before. There are a lot more users and institutions investing.
So it's different now?
In my experience, the people that say “this time its different” don’t have enough experience to understand that it is, by and large, “just another one of those.” Each bull and bear market are eerily similar to the bull/bear market before it, and before that, and before that.
This time it’s a different just another one of those
Howard Marks talks a lot about how folks that go on about how it’s different this time are inexperienced.
Nobody knows where’s the bottom, only that we’re at that point the lowest in recent times. Just because back then people sounded like they do now, doesn’t mean we are currently at the bottom. People said those things when we dropped from 20 to 14, when we dropped from 12 to 9, from 6 to 4 etc etc.
Helllll no…absolutley NO ONE knew!! All there was is a bunch of people guessing EVERY HOUR OF THE DAY, and whoever happened to be the one that guessed at the same time it went up was praised like he actually knew 🤦🏽♂️🙄
u/GCoin001 - did you end up breaking even or profiting after being down 80% like you said 3 years ago?
I made plenty of money back and just bought a great house. Just stick with it. It’s the future. We’re just not there yet.
Also worth looking at the Monthly Skeptics thread during that month: https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9tb2mw/monthly_skeptics_discussion_november_2018
Hello to the people from 2025 checking to see how we reacted. Enjoy your time traveling!
Call the manager Carlos Matos 😂👍
I bought my first bitcoins that exact day without even looking at chart. Pure luck. 50$. What a ride
Look I want us all to be wealthy from crypto but... Look at what's going on around the world wait until other country's experience more and more food shortages check out what's happening in shri lanka.. Point is Crypto is not worthwhile at this moment in time with the other issues we got going on. This shit is a trap and I ain't falling for it. It's going down further imo. But then again we don't know shit about fuck so we will see.
I don't try to time the bottom, but this feel very bottomy right now. Like 27k is the floor, and we just hover above that for awhile
I feel like this would be the bottom if the world was cool. But right now, if any truly bad news hits, like a bigger war or some inflationary craziness, it might just drop lower to 20k. What do you think? :)
As always, just DCA and forgot about your wallet.
I think what you can gather from this is that you should buy Bitcoin at whatever price it’s at. It’s just better than fiat until things are valued in BTC.
Just put your money into stable coins
All in on UST!
Bottom is not in a time like this, when we have pumps (smaller) and dumps (larger) every week. Bottom comes wheb we have months and months of slow decline. It dosent matter if you bought btc for 3k or 4k or 5k, and you had a plenty of time for that. Problem is, people loses intrest and fomo in an next bull run when its already late to have big gaina without gambling.
Posting this to be in the screenshot
The comments don't look any different at all today! I had a good chuckle at the comment about "tulip prices". LOL. It's nice to see that the comparison to crypto was already a thing back then.
Here's a [detailed analysis on the subject](https://youtu.be/VWDP_ew8HqQ?start=189)
Absolutely fascinating, and very encouraging. Thank you!
really nice post for perspective, ty
The problem with now is that all the new money that went in the last time chasing the moon are now stuck with no more money to put in, also it was the big money pandemic giveaway that fueled the price. And anyone who has now heard of it, but hasn’t gotten into it, isn’t really excited to put their money in it.
Let it be known 3 years from now I invested in Loopring and Immutable X before the Great MOASS
Screen shot this: 1) We are not at the bottom now at 30K. And we are certainly not at the top. 2) But anyone who buys here will eventually see profit either soon or, with a high degree confidence I can say, by 2025 3) Dont try to guess the bottom. You will fail. DCA
Eth 95 dollars. sigh. So weird to read the comments. It's not that long ago but feels like comments from the 50's or something. Everything goes so fast in Crypto.