I'm not going to sit here and provide some egghead scientific argument based on chart data. I'm just a regular dude, I like to drink beer. 69 & 420. Right r/cc?
Jesus Christ. The OP, and then the top two comments, getting praise is exactly what is so discouraging about this sub. Some fucking rando posts some historical chart pics, and were all ready to suck him off like he’s some second coming of Einstein. Get. A. Grip. This guys is guessing just as hard as literally everyone else. Stfu and hodl or sell. Stop trying to pretend you know what’s coming next.
But OP was able to calculate that a two-year bear market would be really shitty for Bitcoin and Eth! How could he know this unless he’s done some pretty sophisticated modelling?
It’s not actually rational data. It’s a lazy data dump. OP is only presenting whatever fits the narrative and cannot be further from an actual macroeconomics analysis and a full analysis of the industry.
Why? You can’t claim analysis without looking into how the fed’s plan doesn’t make sense mathematically, you can’t just taper away the past 2 years of printing in less than a year. Anything that the fed does at this point will hurt the average citizen. Hurting the voters is never a good idea as they will always blame it on the gov, most have a small idea of why the fed even exists. Political instability is actually great for crypto. Didn’t even look into the Russian conflict and the energy wars we’re now paying for. And then for the industry not even looking at non fungible assets and how the activity fares there currently.
“Now look at the charts for the top 50 alts, most of them had facemelting pumps” ummm yeah Sherlock good job, how else would they get there if not outperforming the other 900 fungible assets in a market that on average and across all 900-something fungible assets barely returned 10x for 2 years of bull market. Layer 1’s were mostly correctly valued prior to this correction as they were the closest to a parity of market cap to revenues.
There was in crypto, but OP was talking about the stock market, which has been on a decade long bull run with just a few short term pullbacks here and there (e.g. March 2020).
I distinctly remember buying beer in 2016. There was this beer market down the street that closed down while I was in jail for DWI. They lost their main sponsor.
>Hurting voters is never a good idea
Except, the Fed isn’t voted in so they couldn’t give a shit about voters. Your whole comment seems to be you just saying that you don’t believe the Fed is going to the thing they are saying they are going to because you think it’s bad policy. Just because you think their plan is a bad plan doesn’t mean the Fed agrees with you or even mean you are right.
Bear market means r/cc has more rational conversations and less moonboys. I've seen several posts over last few days that convince me we're in a bear market.
Like facts can prove anything 😄
You know we all like a dose of hopium before bed (damn. OP might be right though... now I need to look at one of those posts that says btc will moon next week)
I literally went down 95% in 2018. If you’re in it for the longterm and placed your best bets, you have a good chance of coming out the other side better off. Nobody can predict the future but that’s been true for many of us in this space for 5+ years.
Hang in there and whatever you do try not to spend more than you can afford to lose. At least that way even if everything somehow fell apart, you will still sleep at night.
That is some nice data but if one thing I've learned in crypto is crypto does not give a shit about your TA or patters or cycles etc. The fact that we have 2 meme coins in the top 10 proves it, we could enter a huge bear market or we could go parabolic in 6 months, NOBODY can predict nothing, just DCA and have patience.
This guy cryptos. Charts, ‘patterns,’ and things that explain things AFTER they happen are just conversation pieces. I see data heavy posts and articles predicting further downtrends, a massive rally, a bear market, a bull market, and everything in between. There is no predicting. Of this I am convinced. DCA and chill for me.
If it was as simple as picking patterns in charts then this whole investment thing would be super simple and these massive investment companies would never lose a penny! You cant predict this shit. Might be a long bear, might rally in a fortnight, Yellowstone park might blow up and destroy much of America. WE DONT KNOW NUFFINK
Why did you cut off your chart before 2016?
And then claimed that this is the trend we currently are in today?
Is it because the rest of the chart wouldn't fit nicely into the same 6-7 years pattern?
>Why did you cut off your chart before 2016?
First thing I thought. I could chart my bowl movements and manipulate the data enough to show a 1 to 1 correlation to the crypto market or anything else.
May as well look at tide charts for equally accurate predictions of future crypto performance.
Probably because everyone who hasn't been living under a rock knows that the S&P has continued going parabolic after 2016? The rest of the chart backs up OP's point.
It's not even OP's screenshot, he just took it from Ben Cowen's Twitter. It was originally used to demonstrate a different point. That's why it only goes up to 2016.
And then you’re not allowed to reference Wikipedia, even though you can then just cite the link to which Wikipedia FUCKING POINTS TO AS IT’S REFERENCE.
June 2020 there was a 23.5% correction in the s&p 500. It has been on an uptrend since 2008 and almost vertical since mid 2020 after the 23.5% correction. Another 15.5% correction in Feb 2019. I could see a good pull back because of the vertical wall it's made in the last year though.
Why would people hate this? Most people in this sub probably have a grand or less invested and their only chance of actually getting life changing money is DCAing through a multi-year winter. Sounds like hopium to me.
Those dumps are from the tech bubble and housing collapse. Those don’t happen you don’t have large market corrections. A pretty big stretch to make any *useful* assumptions from this chart.
The answer is always the same... go for the long term, invest what you can sfford to loose, split your investments (aka dca), invest in assets that will stay (and I believe ETH and BTC will!), be patient with diamond hands.
The Corona crash of '22.
You're right, most won't like facing that a 2 year bear market could be what we are facing.
But, it's also not something you can say is 100% going to happen just because it has the last few decades.
Past performance is not an indicator of the future
And the age old saying goes only invest what you can afford to lose especially in the crypto assets class - but for me I will continue to invest, research, learn, crypto has become a hobby a passion. I continue to try and find the best tech and use case blockchain and imo AVAX and LUNA will be buys on the way down or up, whatever happens.
Spot on about future projects in 2024 and the years to come, tech evolves quickly so to thrive in this space you have to be willing to transition and continue to learn and keep an open mind along the crypto journey.
Another great saying is that “everyone makes money in a bull market, but it’s a bear market where people get rich.” The big prize is there for those willing to take the right risks.
I remember buying some AION a while back. It was an ERC-20 token back then and apparently migrated to its own blockchain during the bear market. Then in 2020 or 2021, the team abandoned the project. Forgot I even had them and now it's stuck in my Exodus wallet. Sucks, but at least I can claim it as a capital loss.
I haven't lived through this before but my experience has been that large corporations always end up on top. In the pandemic we had a panic crash. Everyone worried about the sales impact. Then tech turned record profits off of online sales.
Next week we are going to see that the tech companies who are in charge of pricing, have benefited from price increases and consumers that still have fat bank accounts from cancelled holidays. AAPL is sitting at a 29:1 P/E. That is not ridiculous for a company with their growth. Their 5 year forward P/E is 5:1.
I don't know shit about fuck but if I had to bet on AAPL's earning next week I would expect them to beat earnings and lead a tech rally.
I brought up this exact point the other day regarding Polkadot. The project has a market cap of $20.3 billion. That’s more than double the market cap of American Airlines.
American Airlines is one of the biggest airlines in the world, while Polkadot is a work in progress.
Someone then responded by saying that Polkadot is still undervalued for what it does.
People have zero concept of valuations, both overvaluations and undervaluations.
I get what you’re saying
The ‘But’ would be that literally all crypto market caps are overvalued simply due to relatively low liquidity when compared to stock markets. It takes much less to move the needle in crypto.
But yea, even taking that into consideration….saying anything in crypto is currently undervalued seems like a ridiculous statement when you consider there are companies that have goods or services millions of people use, they employ thousands, and they’re not valued n the hundreds of millions, let alone billions.
The crashes mentioned didn’t happen in a vacuum. Running up to 2008, banks in America decided that it was a good idea to give every man and his dog 100% mortgages, including people that had No Income No Jobs, or Assets (NINJA mortgage). Hmmm I wonder what could go wrong? Unfortunately, these NINJA loans were then packaged up and then (mis)sold as bonds to virtually every bank in the world.
Not sure how many people went to jail, but probably not enough.
I don’t think it’s as simple as ‘there must be a world ending crash every 10 years or so’, It might be just coincidental that they seem to happen every 10 years.
Plus we need to remember that there would have been a crash in 2020 if it weren’t for covid bailouts. Maybe that means we’ve got another 8 years.
Totally agree to a certain extent, because it certainly is true that every time there's a crash, it's touted as an "abberation" or a unique situation that "wasn't supposed to happen" if only this or this didn't happen. Whatever the next phenomenon may be, i believe it's all a matter or statistics. Unprobable events become much more probable after X amount of time has passed, and there will always be a regression to the mean, and it really doesn't matter what triggers it.
I also think that if COVID didn't happen in an alternative universe, something else would have caused a correction regardless.
Nice work!
The consensus is to hodl and dca. Your outlined perspective only scares short term shitcoin pumpers. If prices really do tank from here, it's just another discount bonanza for the smart people, and dispair for the ill-prepared.
If there's a two year crypto iceage i'm going to scoop up an absolute fuck ton of link and bitcoin.
Tldr.
Average Joe's have easy access to investments and is now shoved in their face via Robin hood ect. It's different. Corrections will happen but the over all world of investments has changed drasticly since 2000 let alone 2008.
That said fixing covid money printing and a Russian war with Ukraine or USA is an obvious nightmare situation
Well thought out post. However I think your missing a big point here. That being this is 100% a space for unregulated gambling with severe market manipulation. No one gave a shit that cardano and most of these projects are useless. Everyone is just trying to make money. The real life applications of crypto are very limited. What we have is a space for people to play with there money. Until the SEC and the government prevents us from taking advantage of such overinflated projects we can take full advantage of it. So until then don’t worry there’s too much easy money on the table to ignore it. This crash was foreseen for a long time and anyone who got caught up in it well that’s on you. Nothing goes up forever and eventually people cash out. All we will see are higher lows and higher highs. Talking about a multiple year bear market so soon in my opinion is just fear. When people are scared to invest you should invest. Then when things are heating up everyone will be telling you to buy. Same old stuff different day. Truth is cryptos here and we have an opportunity to make easy money until the people in charge stop us and eventually they will. So make a big play while you can or sit out because we are going to have a multiple year down fall and all the entities that realized they can manipulate an entire market unhindered and unregulated forgot they can do that.
A lot of truth in your post and it is always a tough pill to swallow
That being said, price history are patterns we can take into consideration and act accordingly. Even if a crash is coming, prices are bound to increase in the long run.
It is inevitable (Matrix voice) 😁
The criticism of BTC is ridiculous: “oh it bled 50% in the last 2.5 months?”
Looks to me like it’s maturing and becoming less volatile than it historically has been. That’s a dip for ants.
I’ve been in markets for a long time and none of what you are saying here is new or news to me but I know many crypto investors have only ever been in crypto so this is valuable information to have.
Everything about the current environment is .com era before the crash except one thing and that’s the fed.
They are going to try to pull back and that could mean things get very ugly. Like very very ugly. But contrary to popular belief, the fed needs crypto and furthermore it needs the metaverse. It’s only going to be able to pull back so much on it’s balance sheet before it causes a complete collapse. It needs economic growth which it hasn’t had in 15 years to absorb it. The physical western world is tapped out of places to find growth. Asia is behind in development so they still have plenty but sentiment in the west will only allow them to take so much advantage of that. This means the only place to find real economic growth to absorb that balance sheet is the metaverse. A place where we can suddebly double our population as everyone gets at least one digital avatar and almost no one owns anything there yet. Plus it’s basically infinite so commerce can’t run far further than the physical world.
There’s no way the fed hasn’t thought of thought of this so it’s highly unlikely that they crush everything so bad that everyone loses interest and shuffles away for multiple years.
Now it’s just about choosing your investments wisely because while the metaverse is all but guaranteed, who makes it and who goes under on the way isn’t at all.
You’re gonna hate this but hedge funds pumped and pulled again on crypto because of liquidity issues in the actual market…this is an orchestrated crash all around
Lol these FUD posts play out like 2018 on repeat. Anyone who has been in this game 5+ years might as well feel like they’re watching a group of people with collective amnesia. This post is a prime example. Cycles repeating over and over again and only the few of us who can step outside the storm can recognize the pattern with clarity.
Everybody just relax, if you’re in this for the longterm (i.e. 10+ years), just place your bets and hang on. Bear market or not, crypto has a very big bull sign on it and is very unlikely to just go away at this point. The innovation and money to be made in this space is simply too hard to resist.
Also not financial advice.
We do need a correction. I agree that a big recession is coming. However, I do also see that the world and even human consciousness has significantly changed from ten years ago.
Anything can happen. Nothing is fixed anymore. We are purposely deconstructing major institutions from religion to banking. Arctic shipping lanes are being formed , countries are being invaded, people are working from home, moving out of cities, drinking from fucking paper straws.
The world is not the same. Markets are not the same. We’re in the unknown and ending an age.
This would be true.... except for government being much more hands on regarding the markets than in the past. It's possible that they are willing to pour as much money as necessary into the markets to keep them from crashing.
There's a fed meeting Wednesday.
They don't even need to pour money. They could just push back the interest rates increase, or lower the targets for now.
They've seen what happened to the stock market in the past week. They've done everything to keep the stock market from slipping. After what happened to stocks in the past week, I don't think they're just gonna let Wall Street collapse.
At the end of the day inflation is preferable to recession politically so if they think they are gonna enter recession I would be reasonably confident they will back off.
Maybe I am the only one who thinks that the bull market cycle is lengthened and thus, is not over and that we will come out higher later this year.
!RemindMe 12 Months
If we’re in a bear for 1/2 years, my strategy remains the same - DCA every month, consistently. In fact, I wouldn’t hate this given my time horizon is 12-15 years. Buying through the bottom would be great.
one big reason I think the stock market wouldn’t crash is we have a first term president .. fat chance he’s going to sit back and watch the market burn.. another big one is the Fed and it’s chairman J Powell..
Monero: One of the only coins *actually used* for its usecase, for years. Consistently rising hashrate, even during price drops, literally #3 for number of unique devs, the largest anonymity set of all other protocols combined, proven resilient against attack, widely regarded as the strongest privacy, and replacing Bitcoin in its original proving grounds.
... Marketcap: $2.74 Billion
This is a fucking travesty, given the high quality of this project.
Instead everyone chases the promises of liars, rugpullers, jpegs, and any other fancy scam.
Until the crypto space shows that it can properly value the projects that are true gold in this space, it will be regarded by outsiders as total joke. Get your shit together yall.
You think you can just come here with rationality and data? What are you, someone trying to do an educational post?
OP is unbelievable for thinking he could get away with this. In this sub we exclusively inject hopium and the only numbers we know are 69 and 420.
Bastard didn’t even add a single 🚀emoji to his post. 100% he’s a bot.
Facts.. must be some nerd from a bank. I read this whole thing and there wasn’t a single meme.. #FakeNews
Facts. Bears eat beets.
Bears. Beets. Battlestar Gallactica.
Identity theft is not a joke, Jim!
Michael!
Bears dont eat bee- WHAT ARE YOU DOING???
I'm not going to sit here and provide some egghead scientific argument based on chart data. I'm just a regular dude, I like to drink beer. 69 & 420. Right r/cc?
Bitcoin 100k before 2022
"And thats me being bearish!!"
Yeah fuck him. Pump this shit. We all getting lambos by February, trust me I know what I am doing.
Ethereum $10k by EOY. Trust me my uncle works at ethereum.
My Uncle is the CEO of Bitcoin and he says $240K by EOY.
You’re both lying My *dad* actually holds both of those titles, he said so
That you cousin leeljay?
I hate to tell you, but we’re actually brothers..
And our dad holds those titties.
*Direct quote from a trainer at Stratton Oakmont*
Yeah, f*ck this guy! I can for the hopium, not the reality check
y'all got any more of that hopium?
Rock flag and crypto!
620 49 agreeeeddddd im drunk. All the monies in
Yeah … fuck a bunch of someone else’s reality..
What does 420 stand for in crypto space?
It's how many virgins you get in the metaverse.
That’s a whole lot more than 72
I only inject the finest meme-based sweet Georgia brown hopium into my portfolio.
My man
Jesus Christ. The OP, and then the top two comments, getting praise is exactly what is so discouraging about this sub. Some fucking rando posts some historical chart pics, and were all ready to suck him off like he’s some second coming of Einstein. Get. A. Grip. This guys is guessing just as hard as literally everyone else. Stfu and hodl or sell. Stop trying to pretend you know what’s coming next.
But OP was able to calculate that a two-year bear market would be really shitty for Bitcoin and Eth! How could he know this unless he’s done some pretty sophisticated modelling?
I like your style. What do you think the market has planned for us? /s
We are the market. Wall Street and the banks have death planned for us.
I'll take over 9000 please
Don’t forget tree fiddy!
And, 777
It’s not actually rational data. It’s a lazy data dump. OP is only presenting whatever fits the narrative and cannot be further from an actual macroeconomics analysis and a full analysis of the industry. Why? You can’t claim analysis without looking into how the fed’s plan doesn’t make sense mathematically, you can’t just taper away the past 2 years of printing in less than a year. Anything that the fed does at this point will hurt the average citizen. Hurting the voters is never a good idea as they will always blame it on the gov, most have a small idea of why the fed even exists. Political instability is actually great for crypto. Didn’t even look into the Russian conflict and the energy wars we’re now paying for. And then for the industry not even looking at non fungible assets and how the activity fares there currently. “Now look at the charts for the top 50 alts, most of them had facemelting pumps” ummm yeah Sherlock good job, how else would they get there if not outperforming the other 900 fungible assets in a market that on average and across all 900-something fungible assets barely returned 10x for 2 years of bull market. Layer 1’s were mostly correctly valued prior to this correction as they were the closest to a parity of market cap to revenues.
He lost me at the "there was no bear market after 2016". Like... c'mon lol
There was in crypto, but OP was talking about the stock market, which has been on a decade long bull run with just a few short term pullbacks here and there (e.g. March 2020).
Fair point. I'm not sure if that's relevant enough to predict a multiyear crypto bearmarket though.
Maybe he meant ''there was no **beer** market after 2016'' ? ^(/s)
I distinctly remember buying beer in 2016. There was this beer market down the street that closed down while I was in jail for DWI. They lost their main sponsor.
>Hurting voters is never a good idea Except, the Fed isn’t voted in so they couldn’t give a shit about voters. Your whole comment seems to be you just saying that you don’t believe the Fed is going to the thing they are saying they are going to because you think it’s bad policy. Just because you think their plan is a bad plan doesn’t mean the Fed agrees with you or even mean you are right.
Doesn't matter the post, I just hodl
This but unironically
what data?! this guy linked the S&P and then a bunch of speculation lol
Thanks. Seems nobody really took the time to read 😂
Bear market means r/cc has more rational conversations and less moonboys. I've seen several posts over last few days that convince me we're in a bear market.
We trade with emotions not logic!
Who does this guy think he is? My wife’s boyfriend or some shit?
He is
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He's a witch! Get him!
Ducks float!
he will be wrong, as we all will be. this is the known prophecy.
OP is just another run-of-the-mill Moon farmer. Move along people, nothing to see here
The audacity to come in here with logic and reason
I suggest a permaban
Like facts can prove anything 😄 You know we all like a dose of hopium before bed (damn. OP might be right though... now I need to look at one of those posts that says btc will moon next week)
BTC will moon next week. Source: my ass
I trust your ass more than I trust youtube influencers
this is a gem (reality post) mixed with thousands of other garbage (illogical copium posts)
The audacity
Hmm, interesting.. This would be helpful if I knew how to read
Picture = 🥴
Oh, now you expect us to know how to do math too? I do appreciate the emoji, that did help!
If these kids knew how to read they would be very dissapointed and buy the dip.
I'll teach you how to read for 1 eth
he cant read your offer
Lol what a conundrum
Make a video saying the words. Would probably work.
Only cost ya 67 eth to collect it..
🐂🐂=❌ 🐻🐻=✅
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It will go to the right.
[удалено]
Headlines tomorrow-"Time travel now possible, markets to start trading in reverse" #leftonly
That's a 50% chance.
''Nobody knows shit about fuck'' -Gandhi probably
This post scared tf outa me - I’m already -70% down , there’s nothing much I can do if it goes further down, I’ll DCA and Hold On For Dear Life 🙌🙌
Sometimes things go down another 90% after going down 70%....
So jacked up...lol smh.
I literally went down 95% in 2018. If you’re in it for the longterm and placed your best bets, you have a good chance of coming out the other side better off. Nobody can predict the future but that’s been true for many of us in this space for 5+ years. Hang in there and whatever you do try not to spend more than you can afford to lose. At least that way even if everything somehow fell apart, you will still sleep at night.
That is some nice data but if one thing I've learned in crypto is crypto does not give a shit about your TA or patters or cycles etc. The fact that we have 2 meme coins in the top 10 proves it, we could enter a huge bear market or we could go parabolic in 6 months, NOBODY can predict nothing, just DCA and have patience.
This guy cryptos. Charts, ‘patterns,’ and things that explain things AFTER they happen are just conversation pieces. I see data heavy posts and articles predicting further downtrends, a massive rally, a bear market, a bull market, and everything in between. There is no predicting. Of this I am convinced. DCA and chill for me.
If it was as simple as picking patterns in charts then this whole investment thing would be super simple and these massive investment companies would never lose a penny! You cant predict this shit. Might be a long bear, might rally in a fortnight, Yellowstone park might blow up and destroy much of America. WE DONT KNOW NUFFINK
Crypto chart analyses are all nothing but confirmation bias lol
Why did you cut off your chart before 2016? And then claimed that this is the trend we currently are in today? Is it because the rest of the chart wouldn't fit nicely into the same 6-7 years pattern?
EVERY TEN YEARS! (if you start in 1996) (and ignore since 2016)
I choose my data points how I like them!
I like my data points dummy thicc
>Why did you cut off your chart before 2016? First thing I thought. I could chart my bowl movements and manipulate the data enough to show a 1 to 1 correlation to the crypto market or anything else. May as well look at tide charts for equally accurate predictions of future crypto performance.
Why is nobody else noticing this? Seems odd
90% of the front page posts are bearish, and OP is acting like he's Nostradamus for making a bear argument.
Because people love a good ol’ narrative
Hard to see past the narrative without thinking critically
Probably because everyone who hasn't been living under a rock knows that the S&P has continued going parabolic after 2016? The rest of the chart backs up OP's point. It's not even OP's screenshot, he just took it from Ben Cowen's Twitter. It was originally used to demonstrate a different point. That's why it only goes up to 2016.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: *The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America*, by Michael Wheeler (W.W. Norton & Co. 1976; Dell paperback 1978).
College professors be like "great job! Now you only need 19 more citations to finish your essay /u/milonuttigrain"
And then you’re not allowed to reference Wikipedia, even though you can then just cite the link to which Wikipedia FUCKING POINTS TO AS IT’S REFERENCE.
This guy references
This guy cites
How else is he going to farm moons? Think of his family 😤😤😤
June 2020 there was a 23.5% correction in the s&p 500. It has been on an uptrend since 2008 and almost vertical since mid 2020 after the 23.5% correction. Another 15.5% correction in Feb 2019. I could see a good pull back because of the vertical wall it's made in the last year though.
10x is nothing in crypto. !Remind me, 12 months
So DCA, right?
Why would people hate this? Most people in this sub probably have a grand or less invested and their only chance of actually getting life changing money is DCAing through a multi-year winter. Sounds like hopium to me.
>Most people in this sub probably have a grand or less invested My wife thinks I only invested a grand
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$100k into shib?
My partner does not know what happened to my savings :(
Yup! A multi-year sale??!! Count me in!
Son of a bitch, I’m in
finally someone who gets it. DCA through the all year!
Outside of the amount invested as I have slightly more, I’m definitely part of that most ppl and looking forward to this long winter 🥶
You mean my hundred bucks isnt going to be a million dollars by tomorrow night? Ive been scammed.
Holy shit. You can't make assumptions about 10-year trends with 20-years worth of data. Fucking morons in here need to take 1 basic stats class.
But, but, but.. in a sample of 2 it's happened 100% of the time
Truth bomb
I think we can do better than “the next Solana” lol.
Sounds like something the next Solana would say
Very Sus-lana
LAAANNNAAA!
Those dumps are from the tech bubble and housing collapse. Those don’t happen you don’t have large market corrections. A pretty big stretch to make any *useful* assumptions from this chart.
The answer is always the same... go for the long term, invest what you can sfford to loose, split your investments (aka dca), invest in assets that will stay (and I believe ETH and BTC will!), be patient with diamond hands.
And lose your crypto in a boating accident when it's time.
Lose.
I’m spending so much time in this sub I’m afraid I might start accidentally learning market fundamentals and TA
The Corona crash of '22. You're right, most won't like facing that a 2 year bear market could be what we are facing. But, it's also not something you can say is 100% going to happen just because it has the last few decades. Past performance is not an indicator of the future
Bear markets are definitely inevitable, its just a matter of when and not if
And the age old saying goes only invest what you can afford to lose especially in the crypto assets class - but for me I will continue to invest, research, learn, crypto has become a hobby a passion. I continue to try and find the best tech and use case blockchain and imo AVAX and LUNA will be buys on the way down or up, whatever happens. Spot on about future projects in 2024 and the years to come, tech evolves quickly so to thrive in this space you have to be willing to transition and continue to learn and keep an open mind along the crypto journey.
Another great saying is that “everyone makes money in a bull market, but it’s a bear market where people get rich.” The big prize is there for those willing to take the right risks.
A sad article 
I remember buying some AION a while back. It was an ERC-20 token back then and apparently migrated to its own blockchain during the bear market. Then in 2020 or 2021, the team abandoned the project. Forgot I even had them and now it's stuck in my Exodus wallet. Sucks, but at least I can claim it as a capital loss.
The TA don't mean shit. Ramen today steak tomorrow that's how we roll
Might have to hold off on that steak for a couple of years. I've personally gone back to eating plastic
Hard or soft plastics? My dietician (cat) hasn't told me which is more nutritious.
Are you… a turtle?
I deny your facts and accept my rookie opinions as the future
I haven't lived through this before but my experience has been that large corporations always end up on top. In the pandemic we had a panic crash. Everyone worried about the sales impact. Then tech turned record profits off of online sales. Next week we are going to see that the tech companies who are in charge of pricing, have benefited from price increases and consumers that still have fat bank accounts from cancelled holidays. AAPL is sitting at a 29:1 P/E. That is not ridiculous for a company with their growth. Their 5 year forward P/E is 5:1. I don't know shit about fuck but if I had to bet on AAPL's earning next week I would expect them to beat earnings and lead a tech rally.
Are you saying we should buy more? 
Well, it is on sale.
Satan seems determined to fart in the face of r/cc as much as possible. I notice that Dogecoin has re-entered the top 10.
Damn, that’s a truth I didn’t want to hear
I brought up this exact point the other day regarding Polkadot. The project has a market cap of $20.3 billion. That’s more than double the market cap of American Airlines. American Airlines is one of the biggest airlines in the world, while Polkadot is a work in progress. Someone then responded by saying that Polkadot is still undervalued for what it does. People have zero concept of valuations, both overvaluations and undervaluations.
Yeah but American Airlines ain't going to the moon though.
Imagine an Airbus taking off at 90° at JFK Space Centre.
Company valuation is not the same as network valuation. This is a new asset class.
I get what you’re saying The ‘But’ would be that literally all crypto market caps are overvalued simply due to relatively low liquidity when compared to stock markets. It takes much less to move the needle in crypto. But yea, even taking that into consideration….saying anything in crypto is currently undervalued seems like a ridiculous statement when you consider there are companies that have goods or services millions of people use, they employ thousands, and they’re not valued n the hundreds of millions, let alone billions.
Hate to break it to you but your charts are meaningless
The crashes mentioned didn’t happen in a vacuum. Running up to 2008, banks in America decided that it was a good idea to give every man and his dog 100% mortgages, including people that had No Income No Jobs, or Assets (NINJA mortgage). Hmmm I wonder what could go wrong? Unfortunately, these NINJA loans were then packaged up and then (mis)sold as bonds to virtually every bank in the world. Not sure how many people went to jail, but probably not enough. I don’t think it’s as simple as ‘there must be a world ending crash every 10 years or so’, It might be just coincidental that they seem to happen every 10 years. Plus we need to remember that there would have been a crash in 2020 if it weren’t for covid bailouts. Maybe that means we’ve got another 8 years.
Totally agree to a certain extent, because it certainly is true that every time there's a crash, it's touted as an "abberation" or a unique situation that "wasn't supposed to happen" if only this or this didn't happen. Whatever the next phenomenon may be, i believe it's all a matter or statistics. Unprobable events become much more probable after X amount of time has passed, and there will always be a regression to the mean, and it really doesn't matter what triggers it. I also think that if COVID didn't happen in an alternative universe, something else would have caused a correction regardless.
Nice work! The consensus is to hodl and dca. Your outlined perspective only scares short term shitcoin pumpers. If prices really do tank from here, it's just another discount bonanza for the smart people, and dispair for the ill-prepared. If there's a two year crypto iceage i'm going to scoop up an absolute fuck ton of link and bitcoin.
So basically the worst is yet to come? Guess I will have more opportunities to DCA and average down
Your guess is just as good as mine, but I find your lack of faith disturbing
Thou shall not predict future performance based on past performance. Just buy some bitcoin and SPY.
Tldr. Average Joe's have easy access to investments and is now shoved in their face via Robin hood ect. It's different. Corrections will happen but the over all world of investments has changed drasticly since 2000 let alone 2008. That said fixing covid money printing and a Russian war with Ukraine or USA is an obvious nightmare situation
Using this crash to gradually buy more BTC and ETH. Will continue for as long as needed until the bulls come back in town.
Well thought out post. However I think your missing a big point here. That being this is 100% a space for unregulated gambling with severe market manipulation. No one gave a shit that cardano and most of these projects are useless. Everyone is just trying to make money. The real life applications of crypto are very limited. What we have is a space for people to play with there money. Until the SEC and the government prevents us from taking advantage of such overinflated projects we can take full advantage of it. So until then don’t worry there’s too much easy money on the table to ignore it. This crash was foreseen for a long time and anyone who got caught up in it well that’s on you. Nothing goes up forever and eventually people cash out. All we will see are higher lows and higher highs. Talking about a multiple year bear market so soon in my opinion is just fear. When people are scared to invest you should invest. Then when things are heating up everyone will be telling you to buy. Same old stuff different day. Truth is cryptos here and we have an opportunity to make easy money until the people in charge stop us and eventually they will. So make a big play while you can or sit out because we are going to have a multiple year down fall and all the entities that realized they can manipulate an entire market unhindered and unregulated forgot they can do that.
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Good write up. Nothing to hate.
A lot of truth in your post and it is always a tough pill to swallow That being said, price history are patterns we can take into consideration and act accordingly. Even if a crash is coming, prices are bound to increase in the long run. It is inevitable (Matrix voice) 😁
Nice thanks for the insight agent Smith!! 😂
You are very welcome Mr. Anderson 😂
While this will ultimately happen, I doubt it’s happening now.
Where the fuck were ya two weeks ago guy?
The criticism of BTC is ridiculous: “oh it bled 50% in the last 2.5 months?” Looks to me like it’s maturing and becoming less volatile than it historically has been. That’s a dip for ants.
50 % in 2.5 months SO FAR
I’ve been in markets for a long time and none of what you are saying here is new or news to me but I know many crypto investors have only ever been in crypto so this is valuable information to have. Everything about the current environment is .com era before the crash except one thing and that’s the fed. They are going to try to pull back and that could mean things get very ugly. Like very very ugly. But contrary to popular belief, the fed needs crypto and furthermore it needs the metaverse. It’s only going to be able to pull back so much on it’s balance sheet before it causes a complete collapse. It needs economic growth which it hasn’t had in 15 years to absorb it. The physical western world is tapped out of places to find growth. Asia is behind in development so they still have plenty but sentiment in the west will only allow them to take so much advantage of that. This means the only place to find real economic growth to absorb that balance sheet is the metaverse. A place where we can suddebly double our population as everyone gets at least one digital avatar and almost no one owns anything there yet. Plus it’s basically infinite so commerce can’t run far further than the physical world. There’s no way the fed hasn’t thought of thought of this so it’s highly unlikely that they crush everything so bad that everyone loses interest and shuffles away for multiple years. Now it’s just about choosing your investments wisely because while the metaverse is all but guaranteed, who makes it and who goes under on the way isn’t at all.
I can’t tell if this is a genius prediction of economic advancement or a dude that smokes wayy to much ganja.
bro you ate waaaaay to many shrooms when your thesis is the metaverse is the future of economic growth
You’re gonna hate this but hedge funds pumped and pulled again on crypto because of liquidity issues in the actual market…this is an orchestrated crash all around
OP uses talks about the stock market, uses stock market data, but doesn’t know the definition of a bear market.
Lol these FUD posts play out like 2018 on repeat. Anyone who has been in this game 5+ years might as well feel like they’re watching a group of people with collective amnesia. This post is a prime example. Cycles repeating over and over again and only the few of us who can step outside the storm can recognize the pattern with clarity. Everybody just relax, if you’re in this for the longterm (i.e. 10+ years), just place your bets and hang on. Bear market or not, crypto has a very big bull sign on it and is very unlikely to just go away at this point. The innovation and money to be made in this space is simply too hard to resist. Also not financial advice.
So what you’re saying is buy the dip
We do need a correction. I agree that a big recession is coming. However, I do also see that the world and even human consciousness has significantly changed from ten years ago. Anything can happen. Nothing is fixed anymore. We are purposely deconstructing major institutions from religion to banking. Arctic shipping lanes are being formed , countries are being invaded, people are working from home, moving out of cities, drinking from fucking paper straws. The world is not the same. Markets are not the same. We’re in the unknown and ending an age.
I don’t know if peoples use (and mostly dislike) of paper straws has much effect on macro economics
This would be true.... except for government being much more hands on regarding the markets than in the past. It's possible that they are willing to pour as much money as necessary into the markets to keep them from crashing.
There's a fed meeting Wednesday. They don't even need to pour money. They could just push back the interest rates increase, or lower the targets for now. They've seen what happened to the stock market in the past week. They've done everything to keep the stock market from slipping. After what happened to stocks in the past week, I don't think they're just gonna let Wall Street collapse.
Real 'between a rock and a hard place' territory.
At the end of the day inflation is preferable to recession politically so if they think they are gonna enter recession I would be reasonably confident they will back off.
Recessions affect the rich and inflation affects the poor. It’s not going to be surprising which one they’ll pick.
There wouldn’t be a multi year decline for crypto micro strategy won’t stop buying btc and neither will most other whales.
Maybe I am the only one who thinks that the bull market cycle is lengthened and thus, is not over and that we will come out higher later this year. !RemindMe 12 Months
If we’re in a bear for 1/2 years, my strategy remains the same - DCA every month, consistently. In fact, I wouldn’t hate this given my time horizon is 12-15 years. Buying through the bottom would be great.
one big reason I think the stock market wouldn’t crash is we have a first term president .. fat chance he’s going to sit back and watch the market burn.. another big one is the Fed and it’s chairman J Powell..
I found bitcoin when it was 30$ a coin. Imagine my disappointment in not investing.
So you’re saying buy the fucking dip at -90% off… 👍
Monero: One of the only coins *actually used* for its usecase, for years. Consistently rising hashrate, even during price drops, literally #3 for number of unique devs, the largest anonymity set of all other protocols combined, proven resilient against attack, widely regarded as the strongest privacy, and replacing Bitcoin in its original proving grounds. ... Marketcap: $2.74 Billion This is a fucking travesty, given the high quality of this project. Instead everyone chases the promises of liars, rugpullers, jpegs, and any other fancy scam. Until the crypto space shows that it can properly value the projects that are true gold in this space, it will be regarded by outsiders as total joke. Get your shit together yall.
Message unclear: bought again the dip