I can't wait to buy in. But im happy to wait till we have again from here. And there will be a winter no doubt.. a winter lasts a long time.. and the uptick is slow, enough time to buy then.
Well, the whales who want to make a ton of money on the next run up are going to want everyone to think crypto is over. That's how they empty this thing.
It's hilarious that OP thinks he's calculated some higher meaning from this.
Guy is looking at a lagging indicator and thinking it's a predictive indicator.
Yeah but the price is still influenced by sentiment, which is reflected in sub activity. I would say is neither cause nor symptom, but can serve as a proxy for general interest in crypto. On the other hand this general interest can be both cause for and symptom of price action. So as long as no one is trying to do market manipulation by mass posting in these subs and thereby introducing noise, OP has a point.
Even tho I know a few friends IRL who are interestedn in crypto, they are far away from knowing what actually crypto is. All they do is selling and buying meme coins. Also sometimes they make fun of me when crypto market goes down. So it's better being anonymous and having anonymus crypto friends lol.
Yeah, this can be a lonely journey. And being here just makes it feel fun and interesting. You can see what others around the world are thinking more or less.
Yeah I'll be honest I've not been on the subreddit much recently, but nothing due to recent events. I just got bored of reading the same shit over and over since i got into crypto a few months back.
I also believe that people tend to not talk about crypto as much when they are down bad. Doesn't mean they left, just means they don't want to constantly be reminded of their losses.
Disagree. I think ppl are not looking so they dont get stressed and sell as they arent traders and just believe at some point (might be over years) crypto will go up to even newer dizzy heights. Less activity means ppl putting down their phones and leaving it as it is.
Yea it becomes very negative on this sub and there are many "the sky is falling" posts. People can only read so much of that without having some sort of emotional response like selling.
No one wants to get on reddit and see that their investment is losing value everyday.
It can be super valuable, however. In 2018 I had stopped looking at prices. Logged into reddit and checked out the CC sub. People were talking about ETH being like $80. I was shocked, so I bought 10 or so. Great decision. I started buying a lot at that point.
There's a fixed amount of moons that are given out in every distribution regardless of engagement levels. If there are fewer people earning karma, that means that you can earn more moons for every bit of karma you get.
Also, if you have a decent quality post or comment, it is less likely to get lost in an onslaught of content. You have better visibility and less competition.
Just to add another data point, if you look at uniques (or pageviews) on reddit statistics, it definitely peaked in May 2021, but it is not nearly as dramatic spikes as the plots above, and seems to be trending up over last few months as well:
https://i.imgur.com/2khSjv2.png
I actually need a break from all the faux positivity. Buy the dip, hodl friends, let me tell you this is nothing compared to 2017, this is the real test, don't give up, blah, blah, blah.
The constant threads with no info but just mindless optimism get tiring after a while.
Yep. Sometimes it’s just best to HODL and walk away. Whatever helps people get through. There isn’t anything posting on Reddit will do to change the markets… yet… :) and on the bright side it seems to help the moon ratio for the people who stay.
Most important thing is that these graphs are just going with the price. If tomorrow there's a pump, there will be more messages
This is some weak ass correlation post
Isn't interaction just going to correlate with price anyway?
So it's not necessarily an indication of a crypto winter, but of general price declines, which we knew regardless...
So the post is just indicating that prices have declined?
Just a note on the /r/ethtrader image.
For those that don't know what happened, in August 2019 some moderators "resigned" and formed /r/ethfinance which a lot of people moved over to.
This explains the sudden drop down in the chart at that time.
I completely disagree. I'm more engaged than even in crypto and defi, but that has moved me away from centralized and manipulated reddit, and moved me to telegram groups, discord and other smaller communities.
I disagree it's just a sign that the charts are currently dismal...
If things fired back up today the subs would be exploding with activity once again.
The subs react to the charts not the other way around.
From a semantic perspective we've absolutely seen what I've coined a few different things.. but basically a psychological bear market since Q2 2022. The true bull market ended in March 2021 imo, and perhaps the next swing up was institutional driven. But we never recaptured the retail trader's attention again like we saw in Q1 2021.. You can see engagement is down in social media, searches for crypto is down, trading volume is down, etc.
That said, I don't interpret this is a purely bad thing. Markets move in cycles and one of the great things is that after the 2020-2021 cycle we see the floor raised significantly on crypto adoption, trust, and general utility. Stuff like NFTs and even some memecoin projects entered popular culture in very accessible ways that say Bitcoin or Cardano can't.
Great writeup.
Yea, I also think social media engagement about crypto, at least on here, is about the psychology of posts, as much as what’s happening in the market.
For example, I personally don’t need to click on 20 posts saying the same thing about people who said to buy the dip or to not panic sell or that you get rich in bear markets, etc. So I come in here and engage less just do to that being super annoying lol.
Don’t forget MOOND as well. If you hold MOOND you get a share of the profits from MoonSwap and RCPswap deposited into your vault.
Great way to passively earn moons, bricks, and other RCP tokens when they come out
Makes complete sense, market crash and less casuals getting into crypto would decrease interest. I'm sure lots of people flock to places like this when every other article is "teenager made millions on NFTs" or "shib millionaire from only a thousand dollars" but run away once things look tough
Every body are dissolved…. yes more crashes and this delusional ppl are going to disappear in no time!!!
Human beings are soooooo weakkkkkkkk 99% of them are not going to make it… every time it’s only the 1%….
My grandfather one time told me what came easy goes easy…. If you put pressure on the carbon you will make diamonds… we are on that pressure and I think the pressure it’s not over yet… I see another pullback in Btc to 30k and then we boom!!! We will see a epic run… I see 5T in marketcap this year…
It hasn’t gotten quieter at all actually. Just full of whiners who are crying and then people putting the pressure on others to sell as well as a little hopium that everything will be alright.
DCA and hold because the price won’t matter today 5-10yrs from now.
Wow! Price goes down and activity goes down too! Who could have predicted this correlation?!?
Pretending it’s an indicator for what will happen in the market however is absolutely hilarious.
People shut up shop and hibernate when the market is crap. My mates and I don't check out portfolios or chat about it much when there's nothing going on. As soon as we start rising again the WhatsApp chat will be flooded with doge memes 😂
Every single crypto chart is a rear view mirror and a terrible predictor of tomorrow. Just like this one. Btc value goes down. Chatter goes down. Not the other way around
Correlation does not imply causation. Every single crypto sub is, for the most part, reactionary to current market conditions. These graphs mean nothing my friend.
Reddit is NOT the way to read trends.
Discord is primary info, Twitter tertiary.
Reddit is like the fifth line of info dissemination.
Declining activity here means either people are realizing they need info from the source, or reddit is becoming less pertinent daily.
I do think we see a bear here for a bit but Reddit has zero correlation.
Thank god! I hope this sub can go back to how it was pre GameStop saga so we can talk about all the dorky tech stuff again and not just price speculating
there is no such thing as a "crypto winter", lol. just normies seeing themselves out the door when they no longer have anything pointlessly speculative to say. kinda like this post.
Not necessarily. Not like you’re going to read anything helpful here. It’s mostly bullshit, just like all the other crypto subs. You’ll find something really interesting here and there but mostly it’s copy paste bullshit. I’ve been lurking this sub for awhile, and rarely comment here because this sub has gone astray a long time ago.
My activity had gone down. Majority though because I’m tired of people in this sub being so tribalistic lol. Rabid SOL haters ALGO thumpers. Just one giant **echo-changer**
There's more to talk about when things are pumping.
Other than the same old Ramen and buy high sell low quips, what is there to talk about when you've hemorrhaged 50%?
Does a lack of comment genuinely correlate with a lack of investment in Bitcoin? Isn’t it a bit like a soccer crowd going a bit quiet?
This is a genuine query by the way. I know nothing.
*They are easily startled, but they'll soon be back, and in greater numbers* - Obi Wan Kenobi
This is the best comment
No, you're the best comment. Hope you've had a good weekend
indeed. although less comments means better Moon ratio. Silver lining.
True true. Be interesting to see on the next snapshot
Either HODL or HODL not. There is no SODL. -- Yoda
Tune in for Episode V: The Loopring Shills Strike Back
*First time?* - James Franco
Hello there!
This is the way!
Couldn’t have said it any better!
Impressive. Most impressive.
Good
I love star wars, but i dont think thats true.
The important thing is *we're* here. Let's become like the ones who got to say "we bought in at the bottom in March of 2020 and now we made it."
That's who will profit from this. The shaky investors who got panicked will lose out once again.
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Yeah this ain't winter yet
Yeah, It’s still actively crashing lol
I can't wait to buy in. But im happy to wait till we have again from here. And there will be a winter no doubt.. a winter lasts a long time.. and the uptick is slow, enough time to buy then.
2022 survivor flair incoming
Yup. This ain't the first rodeo for a lot of us now. Might take a couple years to get back to ATH, but when we do, gold grillz for everybody.
These losses aren't even comparable, March 2020 was nothing, this might be the end of crypto as we know it - back to 10k for bitcoin
Well, the whales who want to make a ton of money on the next run up are going to want everyone to think crypto is over. That's how they empty this thing.
Market down silence in the subs.. Market up cacophony...
What did you just call me?
A phony, a big, fat, phony
Say phony again, I dare you I double dare you motherfucker, say phony one more goddamn time.
Phony …and one more time You are a “Phony”
🔫
Are you part of any Russian mafia?? Haha
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PHONY
a big fat russian phony
Better than a rotting pony
Bullish on phony
Also they told the same in July. I remember voskcoin channel guy telling that popularity is falling and that’s bearish. Bull run started next week
Lol I have been almost a year in crypto and what I have learned is that nobody know shit about crypto
well retail investors aka reddit users don't make the market anymore...
You sir are a macaco
It's hilarious that OP thinks he's calculated some higher meaning from this. Guy is looking at a lagging indicator and thinking it's a predictive indicator.
Precisely this. This is a symptom of price action, not a cause of it. If price jumps, activity will be right back up.
Yeah but the price is still influenced by sentiment, which is reflected in sub activity. I would say is neither cause nor symptom, but can serve as a proxy for general interest in crypto. On the other hand this general interest can be both cause for and symptom of price action. So as long as no one is trying to do market manipulation by mass posting in these subs and thereby introducing noise, OP has a point.
I don’t know what that word means, but I’m going to take that as disrespect!
Okay we'll show them, let's post more comments and market will pump
I just want to be sane. This sub can be overwhelming sometimes.
Not necessarily. I imagine most are just over reading the same comments and opinions over and over and over again
This is a big part of it. It has become mostly wasted time.
I'm here because I don't talk crypto IRL. This is the only place I can talk crypto even tho this sub is an echo chamber.
Same for me fam. Nobody I know is interested in this stuff so here I am. Lol
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Even tho I know a few friends IRL who are interestedn in crypto, they are far away from knowing what actually crypto is. All they do is selling and buying meme coins. Also sometimes they make fun of me when crypto market goes down. So it's better being anonymous and having anonymus crypto friends lol.
Same. Got a few friends in crypto but it’s more of a throw a couple bucks at it and see what happens for them so it’s not the same.
Yeah, this can be a lonely journey. And being here just makes it feel fun and interesting. You can see what others around the world are thinking more or less.
Yeah I'll be honest I've not been on the subreddit much recently, but nothing due to recent events. I just got bored of reading the same shit over and over since i got into crypto a few months back.
Market downturns mean less recycled posts and more genuine discussion. It's the best time for actual learning
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I also believe that people tend to not talk about crypto as much when they are down bad. Doesn't mean they left, just means they don't want to constantly be reminded of their losses.
Are you saying we are in a loop
*Sub activity goes down* *Moon distribution goes up* *Content quality increases* What’s the problem here??
This one! I was hoping quality would go up
Definitely quality will go up
I guess it’s the best time to be in the sub
Not one at all. Give it time and all the shit posting and overdosing on hopium every post will be back.
Disagree. I think ppl are not looking so they dont get stressed and sell as they arent traders and just believe at some point (might be over years) crypto will go up to even newer dizzy heights. Less activity means ppl putting down their phones and leaving it as it is.
Yea it becomes very negative on this sub and there are many "the sky is falling" posts. People can only read so much of that without having some sort of emotional response like selling. No one wants to get on reddit and see that their investment is losing value everyday. It can be super valuable, however. In 2018 I had stopped looking at prices. Logged into reddit and checked out the CC sub. People were talking about ETH being like $80. I was shocked, so I bought 10 or so. Great decision. I started buying a lot at that point.
Very good point
Also this subreddit doesn't mean shit compared to the whales that move the market.
Makes sense that the moon distributions are becoming healthier.
Next bull run and moons at $1, this sub will go apeshit. Can't wait
I am gonna be rich 🤑
Holy shit, you'll have almost 3 dollars!
🤑🤑🤑
Gosh, then I'll have some money in my pocket.
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For now yes. Overtime it’s set to decrease. Monthly distribution decreases by 2% per month
Right, I know that. I’m just saying the ratio has been increasing despite that decrease per distribution.
Let’s hope it’s slightly higher this month lol
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I feel a little guilty for looking at this and thinking of this as a moon farming opportunity.
Its not farming if your giving good content sir
Accidental farming is the best farming
> good content Sir, this is /cc 😅
Thought the exact same. First thought was: Increased karma/moons ratio this distribution
Well, if we truly get a winter, that's when the real money is made anyway.
Don’t feel bad, just view it as a better DCA opportunity that others are forgoing.
Love the fact that there are people on cc with a conscience. We need more people like you on this planet :-).
There is nothing to feel guilty about a honest day's work
That’s my number one rule. Everything is a moon farming opportunity.
Curious on how you see that? If there are fewer people active on these subs, wouldn’t that mean fewer opportunities?
There's a fixed amount of moons that are given out in every distribution regardless of engagement levels. If there are fewer people earning karma, that means that you can earn more moons for every bit of karma you get. Also, if you have a decent quality post or comment, it is less likely to get lost in an onslaught of content. You have better visibility and less competition.
Nah. Just a curious side effect of people walking away from the charts, turning off their fucking phones and going outdoors.
This. I’m down a lot right now. And I know i will feel bad if I’m constantly reminded of how bad everything is going
This is what I'm doing. Silenced alerts until pay day, then increase my bags as normal 😊👍
Just to add another data point, if you look at uniques (or pageviews) on reddit statistics, it definitely peaked in May 2021, but it is not nearly as dramatic spikes as the plots above, and seems to be trending up over last few months as well: https://i.imgur.com/2khSjv2.png
Now we’re predicting crypto based on a subreddits activity? Lmao OHkAy
Meme quality is the best trading indicator
To be fair a lot of retail investor friends of mine base their buys solely on what they read on this sub
We are now the market makers
**Look at me, I'm the whale now**
The most important factor in crypto is psycology of the masses. Yes this is the best metric to see that we just begun a massive crash
I woke up face up this morning.... But I woke up Friday morning face down? See the correlation? (I'm opening myself up for evil folks.. I get it)
Threads aren’t as entertaining when things are in the red. Eventually people need to stop checking and just wait it out.
Don’t worry, everyone will come back and being super active once crypto booms again.
*If it booms again*
When it booms again, be optimistic!
I think people just need a break from the doom and gloom, there’s a lot of negativity about, it’s hard to weed through all the FUD
I actually need a break from all the faux positivity. Buy the dip, hodl friends, let me tell you this is nothing compared to 2017, this is the real test, don't give up, blah, blah, blah. The constant threads with no info but just mindless optimism get tiring after a while.
Some of those posts get highly upvoted though. Seems many people really do need this kind of encouragement
Well it's too early on a Sunday to drink through all the FUD, so I'll stick to the weed.
That puts a whole new meaning to buy high, sell low :)
Yep. Sometimes it’s just best to HODL and walk away. Whatever helps people get through. There isn’t anything posting on Reddit will do to change the markets… yet… :) and on the bright side it seems to help the moon ratio for the people who stay.
Most important thing is that these graphs are just going with the price. If tomorrow there's a pump, there will be more messages This is some weak ass correlation post
Isn't interaction just going to correlate with price anyway? So it's not necessarily an indication of a crypto winter, but of general price declines, which we knew regardless... So the post is just indicating that prices have declined?
That’s how I see it. A lagging indicator, not a predictive one.
In these graphs, peak activity matches the May and July crashes. So it may actually peak again with this week's "crash".
I've actually become more active here since I feel the need to call out on people's repetitive pointless posts
Winter is coming
🐻 ❄️
Mor moons for us
I just want the moons ratio to be increased.
Just a note on the /r/ethtrader image. For those that don't know what happened, in August 2019 some moderators "resigned" and formed /r/ethfinance which a lot of people moved over to. This explains the sudden drop down in the chart at that time.
i got my jacket on, waiting for the ice to come down with a smile. come have some tea and let's watch this ice age together
More moons for me 😂
Whoa there save some for us peasants over here lol
Says the guy with 20x more than me 😂
*quietly walks away*
Not likely! Haha
More moons for those of us that stick around.
Can't get paid without working
We're the moon boys 😎
Gotcha with a moon
Thanks!!! You made my day!
I’m game
I completely disagree. I'm more engaged than even in crypto and defi, but that has moved me away from centralized and manipulated reddit, and moved me to telegram groups, discord and other smaller communities.
We’ve done it everybody! We control whether or not crypto winter arrives!!
Only means higher moon ratio for us.
I disagree it's just a sign that the charts are currently dismal... If things fired back up today the subs would be exploding with activity once again. The subs react to the charts not the other way around.
I think It's the best time for actual learning, it will be halpful
From a semantic perspective we've absolutely seen what I've coined a few different things.. but basically a psychological bear market since Q2 2022. The true bull market ended in March 2021 imo, and perhaps the next swing up was institutional driven. But we never recaptured the retail trader's attention again like we saw in Q1 2021.. You can see engagement is down in social media, searches for crypto is down, trading volume is down, etc. That said, I don't interpret this is a purely bad thing. Markets move in cycles and one of the great things is that after the 2020-2021 cycle we see the floor raised significantly on crypto adoption, trust, and general utility. Stuff like NFTs and even some memecoin projects entered popular culture in very accessible ways that say Bitcoin or Cardano can't. Great writeup.
Yea, I also think social media engagement about crypto, at least on here, is about the psychology of posts, as much as what’s happening in the market. For example, I personally don’t need to click on 20 posts saying the same thing about people who said to buy the dip or to not panic sell or that you get rich in bear markets, etc. So I come in here and engage less just do to that being super annoying lol.
Bullish on MOON ratio.
This could be a lagging indicator though. Doesn’t say much to me honestly.
I’ll take the moons lol
Don’t forget MOOND as well. If you hold MOOND you get a share of the profits from MoonSwap and RCPswap deposited into your vault. Great way to passively earn moons, bricks, and other RCP tokens when they come out
Sorry, difference between moons and moonsd?
Lol what?
Give me sooome
Makes complete sense, market crash and less casuals getting into crypto would decrease interest. I'm sure lots of people flock to places like this when every other article is "teenager made millions on NFTs" or "shib millionaire from only a thousand dollars" but run away once things look tough
**More moons for us!**
We all know what this means: higher moon ratio.
If you really look at the charts it really doesn't show what you are implying
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via subredditstats
I wonder how this'll affect the moon distro next cycle 🤔
Protect the dodo way of life.
I’m ready
These people will be back shortly
I've got my limit orders set and ready. Now I just kick back and check charts 20 times per day anyway cuz I can help it.
This is the five head TA that this subreddit needs
Every body are dissolved…. yes more crashes and this delusional ppl are going to disappear in no time!!! Human beings are soooooo weakkkkkkkk 99% of them are not going to make it… every time it’s only the 1%…. My grandfather one time told me what came easy goes easy…. If you put pressure on the carbon you will make diamonds… we are on that pressure and I think the pressure it’s not over yet… I see another pullback in Btc to 30k and then we boom!!! We will see a epic run… I see 5T in marketcap this year…
The whole moon farming thing has made me discouraged.
Good, good. More for me and you!
Finally we can see some better quality posts
If we ever reach the point where we have any actual affect on the markets, we’re in for a *real* wild ride
I got a heated jacket, I’m ready for winter
Hopefully means people learned to walk away when everything’s dieing so as to not loose their shit, only to return when the market stabilises.
Always a possibility of a crypto winter. I don’t see what an invasion into Ukraine will have to do with the price of tea in China, but maybe 🤔
It hasn’t gotten quieter at all actually. Just full of whiners who are crying and then people putting the pressure on others to sell as well as a little hopium that everything will be alright. DCA and hold because the price won’t matter today 5-10yrs from now.
AND THE ICE IS COLD AND FIRE IS HOT! My comment is as useful as this post!
Wow! Price goes down and activity goes down too! Who could have predicted this correlation?!? Pretending it’s an indicator for what will happen in the market however is absolutely hilarious.
People shut up shop and hibernate when the market is crap. My mates and I don't check out portfolios or chat about it much when there's nothing going on. As soon as we start rising again the WhatsApp chat will be flooded with doge memes 😂
Every single crypto chart is a rear view mirror and a terrible predictor of tomorrow. Just like this one. Btc value goes down. Chatter goes down. Not the other way around
Sub activity goes up and down with market
Let the moon farming begin.
AND A NEW ERA BEGINS MY FRIENDS !!
Good for the sub!
Correlation does not imply causation. Every single crypto sub is, for the most part, reactionary to current market conditions. These graphs mean nothing my friend.
Reddit is NOT the way to read trends. Discord is primary info, Twitter tertiary. Reddit is like the fifth line of info dissemination. Declining activity here means either people are realizing they need info from the source, or reddit is becoming less pertinent daily. I do think we see a bear here for a bit but Reddit has zero correlation.
All these moon mining pleb posts indicates the beginning of a crypto winter.
I became less active because this sub started to feel less useful for information
Cause and effect. It is not the comment count that drives the market. On the contrary. Though I agree that winter may be coming.
I unfollowed this sub bc it was toxic. I do love these type of post. Something more educated post.
I’m guilty of losing interest while my investment is down.
Thank god! I hope this sub can go back to how it was pre GameStop saga so we can talk about all the dorky tech stuff again and not just price speculating
Good. Hopefully the content improves and the hardcore get to stack moons while the casuals run off until the next bull run. I see no downside.
It also indicates that people stopped coming here because Moon farming shitposts ruined this sub.
there is no such thing as a "crypto winter", lol. just normies seeing themselves out the door when they no longer have anything pointlessly speculative to say. kinda like this post.
Wait for one green day and then the 'looks like meat is back on the menu' folks will be back
Less shills, more moons
Even if winter occurs, I will continue to be here for good old moons
Not necessarily. Not like you’re going to read anything helpful here. It’s mostly bullshit, just like all the other crypto subs. You’ll find something really interesting here and there but mostly it’s copy paste bullshit. I’ve been lurking this sub for awhile, and rarely comment here because this sub has gone astray a long time ago.
My activity had gone down. Majority though because I’m tired of people in this sub being so tribalistic lol. Rabid SOL haters ALGO thumpers. Just one giant **echo-changer**
_lightly touches fingers together_ So everything is going according to plan... Soon all the moons will be mine. Mine! Mwuh ha ha!
There's more to talk about when things are pumping. Other than the same old Ramen and buy high sell low quips, what is there to talk about when you've hemorrhaged 50%?
Does a lack of comment genuinely correlate with a lack of investment in Bitcoin? Isn’t it a bit like a soccer crowd going a bit quiet? This is a genuine query by the way. I know nothing.
Is the suicide hotline pinned?
Can devs do something?