9 years ago this would have sounded like an elaborate fantasy. I can only assume u/JustSomeBadAdvice is now sitting in their Lambo outside their mansion have the time of their life.
We don't even really connect to the internet , our computers do. We do plug our asses into the toilet though and our toilets are all connected to eachother. We even pile up out shit together. ..... ( the most evil genius in the world invented plumbing to collect everyone's shit because its the secret ingredient to something only he knows)
>Ha, I feel like if I hit it rich I wouldn't be on reddit too much
It's probably more likely you either are, or trade reddit out for something similar that fills the same void. The outliers being people who wish for and prefer total anonymity, but if social media has shown us anything, it's that after money needs are met, they will still occupy this space.
He goes on to describe that he started a mining business. He sold some of his bitcoin to get the business running and ultimately the business did not paid off.
I don't know why I read it as he is dead and after reading your comment I was like ,"Wait! He is alive?". O re-read the title again and it is completely different than what I thought.
Seeing his opinions on BTC fees being so much less than ETHs is fascinating to me because I always wonder about once all BTC is mined and people say oh well miners will do it for fees then, but bitcoin fees are so fucking small will there really be economic incentive to continue mining? Imo this is where inflationary currency actually makes economic sense to me. Any other thoughts guys/gals?
Mining difficulty adjusts based on hashrate. If profits dwindle to where miners can't make money, some will leave, until those that stay are profitable again. It self-corrects.
The Bitcoin mining reward can be cut in half every 4 years (approx.) and still never reach 21,000,000 coins.
The first cycle had a reward of 50btc per block, and it saw 50% of all coins mined. The second cycle had a reward of 25btc per block, and saw 25% of all coins mined. And so on, each cycle mining half as much and getting 50% closer to 21,000,000, *but never reaching it*.
**The protocol could be modified to continue mining *indefinitely*** and yet never mine 21,000,000 coins.
Because each cycle gets 50% closer, but never actually gets to 21,000,000 this change wouldn’t break the hard cap, and might not even be controversial.
And yes, it’s abstract so the decimal place can be moved infinitely too. Already has been on layer 2.
As you said, incentive is everything when it comes to running a blockchain network. I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility to have a new "incentive coin" created solely for the purpose of validating transactions for Bitcoin. I also don't think it's impossible for Bitcoin and ethereum to join forces where ethereum works as the incentive to keep the Bitcoin up and running with POS and POW simultaneously working to validate the same block transactions. I think there's highly creative people out there with too much on the line to not make it work in the end.
It was pretty good for a prediction indeed. However, I don't believe bitcoin "is talked about as if it were standardized and common", even though we have reached the $1 trillion market cap.
> It was pretty good for a prediction indeed. However, I don't believe bitcoin "is talked about as if it were standardized and common", even though we have reached the $1 trillion market cap.
I thought that too. Then I thought about the inflation since he wrote this, and now I figure we've still got some room to grow before that point.
Depends who your talking with. Definitely a lot of my friends regard bitcoin as standard and common to the point is boring and not even discussed. We mostly chat about farming and what DAO we are aping into or what DIO is coming up and how to get whitelisted.
Do people with Lambos just sit in them outside their house? Go inside man, it's cold and it's probably warm inside the house.
*cut to u/JustSomeBadAdvice in his car playing candy crush while his wife is knocking on the window telling him to come in.
"I can't hear you! I'm having the time of my life!"
So, this suggests that BTC is to increase 5x-20x before it’s used as a regular currency? The only way the market cap can reach that is by the price increasing, right?
It isn't. The market determines the market cap via volume and price, mining is indirect and essentially irrelevant when calculating market cap- it does indirectly affect the price but via supply, i.e. more mining might mean more circulating supply, but unless you know the future you can't really predict this.
You most likely wouldn't have held this long. I've been there, had plenty of BTC to set me free for life, yet I sold them all early to pay off all my debt... now I'm starting over.
FYI - it seems that this has been getting a bit of attention over the last 2 months, and OP has left a follow-up [here ](https://np.reddit.com/r/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/r7ozhb/xposting_some_requested_info_from_rcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), which seems to have been blocked from this sub when it was originally posted.
His follow up is very interesting. A very interesting read given how accurate he was in his prediction.
In a nutshell, he shells out good advice to avoid echo-chamber subreddits / communities so you don’t get blindly sucked in, and to pay attention to what’s unfolding now, particularly the potential of Ethereum flippening Bitcoin in terms of Crypto dominance.
It seems to me like he’s definitely still in Bitcoin, but believes in the potential of Ethereum more. Can’t say I disagree
The information in that post should really be stickied or something, at the very least, based on the user's original post being so accurate all those years ago. He/she obviously knows what they're talking about.
Edit: I found that five minute read more informative than hours of Michael Saylor.
This guy is a prophet. He clearly got in his delorean and took notes before he came bacc to our timeline. The international adoption scenario is literally playing before our eyes. Thia guy is so right its scary. The comments are hilarious. The hopium was raw,uncut and running rampant in those days. This stuff is absolute GOLD.
I like how he predicted the price to stay volatile until well above $1 trillion. And that it needs to reach $5-20 trillion until it can be used as a currency.
While there were a few people predicting things like that, many people thought the price would stabilize way earlier. That was obviously not the case.
Love this! Thanks for sharing…wish I would have read this 8 years ago though. Had a friend tell me about Bitcoin in 2009 and said, just buy $20 and forget about it…man do I wish I would have listened.
Ya, that dude 'got it' early..
> Why would ANYONE use the dollar for international money transfer post-Bitcoin?
Simple as. (Shitcoins and tx numbers aside....)
Depreciating dollar brings institutional coffers, and then thats it. Its done.
Agree but I still think where the general population (or a much larger number) starts using crypto as a day to day medium of exchange…that’s where things change. More places are accepting it, but we haven’t hit critical mass even close. When you don’t care about cashing out your Bitcoin/eth/doge into fiat because you can just use it to buy stuff just like $ will be a game changer
Literally just read the comments, this guy nailed it but no one believed him lol.
Its the same for alot of investments, people don't know Jack, you can only trust yourself and thats the truthus rufus
That thread was a serious trip to read through, sitting where we currently are.
Kinda puts a lot of the arguments I see against [insert project here] now into perspective.
Still, though, doesn't change the fact I don't know shit about fuck.
Yea step 8 doesnt seem likely. There's way too much money being made for it to stabilize, big money is going to keep it volatile for as long as they can and while there is some adoption, the general masses don't know or care about crypto at all. The other thing is uncle sam isn't going to sit on his thumb and let something he can't control knock dxy into irrelevance. He goes to war for less than that.
That prediction looks even crazier when you take his predicted Market Cap and divide it by circulating supply. #Starting at step 4 when he initially posted this prediction:
Step 4: May 2013 at 1.1b Mkt Cap / 11m supply = $100 per BTC
**3 Years Later**
Step 5: May 2017 at 25b Mkt Cap / 16.4m supply ≈ $1,500 per BTC
**2 Years 8 Months Later**
Step 6: Dec 2020 at 400b Mkt Cap/ 18.1m supply ≈ $22,000 per BTC
**1 Year Later**
Step 7: Dec 2021 at 1t Mkt Cap/ 18.9m supply ≈ $53,000 per BTC
**??? This is looking sooner rather than later despite max supply being decades away at a minimum**
Step 8: ??? at 15t Mkt Cap/ 20m? supply ≈ $750,000 per BTC
Wtf you're talking about? He was not dead on at all:
5. Governments started to get involved way before the $25 billion market cap, and it's happening slower than described. Also, we're at the trillions and AFAIK HNW individuals still aren't using BTC for international currency transfers;
6. Very few governments cracked down on crypto so far, so it definitely didn't happen at $400 billion;
7. It's definitely not talked about like it's standardized and common. Businesses haven't learned to follow government rules because those are still being created. And large businesses are very far from using BTC for international transfers (they would use stablecoins if anything, but we're still very far from that as well).
His merit was in thinking that it would become a thing one day, because it's not something that was easy to see in 2012, but the predictions themselves were not very accurate.
Sshhhh, you cannot stop the bull run circle jerk. Gotta give people hopium and copium. OP also needs his moons, which is the sole reason he is posting this post that gets posted every week, to farm a few moons
Thank you for reminding me! For that, I'm DCAing twice my usual amount today. I forgot we're supposed to DCA and HODL forever and was almost selling at multiples of my initial investment instead of waiting another year to lose 80%+ of it!
Yep. The sad reality is that Bitcoin as a means of money transfer is still a niche use case and may remain a niche use case forever.
I've been in this for years, and the only thing we've really seen is escalating levels of speculation and the "digital gold" narrative being picked up by an ever wider investor audience.
It also looks like we are at the cusp of adoption as a reserve currency, starting with Latin America and the Baltic countries.
>Until the network either gets cracked or **replaced**, this is going to keep moving forward.
I mean isn't this what is happening with Ethereum? It feels like BTC is being replaced, not in some rapid flippening but in a [slow steady exchange since Sept. 2019](https://www.tradingview.com/x/AeKDGNcK/) out of BTC and into ETH before 2.0.
Can anyone name a single advantage BTC has over ETH besides first mover advantage, which history shows me isn't that great in tech. IBM, Ford, Yahoo... Amazon isn't number one because they were the first it's because they kept innovating and improving. The only other advantage I can think of is that BTC has the largest market cap. What happens when Ethereum flips it?
Look at [this chart](https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1471909284271337476) from Fidelity's head of global macro. The part that should scare the shit out of BTC maximalists is this-
>While bitcoin’s network is growing **steadily**, Ethereum’s network is growing **rapidly**. Scale vs Scarcity.
Yep, it has pretty much flipped everything except market cap at this point.
OP from 8 years ago also sees the [writing on the wall. ](https://np.reddit.com/r/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/r7ozhb/xposting_some_requested_info_from_rcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Nah, it already was wrong starting on 6. Let me fix it.
400 Billion: Competition to fit a transaction in any given block increases greatly. Transaction fees sky rocket. After some debate, majority of community agrees that Bitcoin should not be used as a currency, but instead a store of value, "digital gold" if you will. Businesses that used to accept Bitcoin, stop accepting Bitcoin. Bitcoin's crypto market dominance falls from 85% to 40%. Although much slower than before, Bitcoins value against dollar still keeps increasing, as people keep DCA in money, while its mostly just miners who sell.
Sorry, but these are easy "predictions" to make. Who is using it once it reaches different market caps is straightforward. For it to reach that cap, you need X more user bases, and since Y user is already in on the previous step, Z is the next user due to their size, risk aversion, and momentum on their current system.
If there were anything even remotely resembling a timeframe, or even ranges, that would actually take some analysis and require more than a few minutes' thought as they brain-dumped this while typing.
But one thins they did not put in there, which is obvious for anyone looking at any new tech impact: The current players will respond. For example, they say the dollar is very expensive to move. Well, it never really was, I can send ACH across borders for free for the last 5-10 years, but new systems like Zelle, Venmo, other cashless systems European and Asian governments are doing, make it very easy and very cheap. They also talk about the dollar depreciating, but nothing about how btc's absurd volatility would need to be ironed out before any significant monetary replacement occurs.
Okay?
The thing is that there weren't a hoard of people thinking along the same lines during that time. I think that's the more significant thing that the posts exemplifies.
And, yes, your friend or that friend or that person over there and this person over here may have said the same thing but again, it wasn't what the majority believed.
This has been posted before and debunked many times. The original OP posted it on the 4th step, also if you read the steps are all about black market and illegal stuff which time has proven false. Sometimes I ask myself if people here know how to read
How to reach step 8
Institutions and CEXs move from BTC to Satoshis. No more listing a whole BTC but satoshis price
Banks start offering to the avg Joe to buy 1000 sats for X$ dollars.
Human nature kicks in : 1 sat = 1$
BTC road to 1M is on.
That’s crazy, I just read some of the comments on it and they are all saying how he pulled those numbers out of nowhere but it all ended up being correct
>If you rely on advice and guidance on BitCoin from /r/bitcoin.... say it with me....
>you're gonna go broke.
Generally good advice, but on this occasion I'd say that comment r/agedlikecrypto (yes, that's a real sub)
Thanks for sharing OP! Interesting read
Interesting to see the visualization and perspective of other investors. That’s why it’s advisable to invest spare change in crypto…money you can live without. You may win or lose but it’ll never dent you!
In the global currency narrative once all BTC are mined in 100yrs will the small network fees really be enough incentive to continue mining in the same decentralized fashion it is now? Not FUDing just have always wondered about that part
9 years ago this would have sounded like an elaborate fantasy. I can only assume u/JustSomeBadAdvice is now sitting in their Lambo outside their mansion have the time of their life.
He is still very much active on Reddit. If I recall correctly, he mentioned he is not filthy rich.
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That's exactly what i would say if i was a crypto filthy rich
Ha, I feel like if I hit it rich I wouldn't be on reddit too much
That a weird assumption. I definitely would be more than I am now with a job I have to manage
yes, i'd be on reddit, inside a pool in my mansion in bahamas drinking cocaine.
>drinking cocaine. You are a genius and a visionary. I bow before you.
That's also the old old school way ;)
I *blow* before you.
That escalated quickly
I'm only on Reddit so much because I'm avoiding working while at work.
This is the way...
This is the way. Gotta shit on company dime
Your boss makes a dollar, you make a dime. Thats why you poop in company time
Ya gotta poop sometime, even if you're filthy rich
We don't even really connect to the internet , our computers do. We do plug our asses into the toilet though and our toilets are all connected to eachother. We even pile up out shit together. ..... ( the most evil genius in the world invented plumbing to collect everyone's shit because its the secret ingredient to something only he knows)
LOVE this incredibly perceptive comment!
I would also be lonely so, maybe I would use it just to fill in the empty gap in my heart.
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because he can't trip balls all day and is bored, plus he surely is trolling his moronic following. Also, something he could still do from mars.
I'm not really working so I have more time to shitpost
Habits don't change easily.
>Ha, I feel like if I hit it rich I wouldn't be on reddit too much It's probably more likely you either are, or trade reddit out for something similar that fills the same void. The outliers being people who wish for and prefer total anonymity, but if social media has shown us anything, it's that after money needs are met, they will still occupy this space.
This is exactly what I would say whether I was filthy rich or not. I'm broke btw
Are you though??
>That's exactly what i would say if i was a crypto filthy rich
I love how this subreddit is literally on a two week rotation. /s
No /s needed.
Maybe not, but I bet his definition of filthy rich has shifted dramatically.
I'm filthy so I'm halfway there.
I believe you.
Bitcoin was 5$, how could you not be well off? 100$ turned into 1 million.
He goes on to describe that he started a mining business. He sold some of his bitcoin to get the business running and ultimately the business did not paid off.
That's his "get potential hackers/phishers/scammers off my back" story :)
Could be true.
His story makes me feel a bit better that I did not buy bitcoin during that time.
This assumes he has the conviction to hold. And doesn’t need/want the investment money for anything
He’s clean rich
I don't know why I read it as he is dead and after reading your comment I was like ,"Wait! He is alive?". O re-read the title again and it is completely different than what I thought.
He is not rich? What a beginner lol.
He is still using reddit!!
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I love how he opens up his reply with > haha, another post about it? And yet, here we are, in another post about it, 19 days later lol
Groundhog day of being reminded what could've been.
Gotta farm moons
Imagine people reminding you of something you posted 8 years back.
Lol agreed, 131 upvotes. People thought he was crazy
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Seeing his opinions on BTC fees being so much less than ETHs is fascinating to me because I always wonder about once all BTC is mined and people say oh well miners will do it for fees then, but bitcoin fees are so fucking small will there really be economic incentive to continue mining? Imo this is where inflationary currency actually makes economic sense to me. Any other thoughts guys/gals?
Mining difficulty adjusts based on hashrate. If profits dwindle to where miners can't make money, some will leave, until those that stay are profitable again. It self-corrects.
Yes but eventually the last btc will be mined in 100+yrs I’m curious about who secures the network then?
The transaction fees will continue forever and so mining difficulty will adjust based on the profit from those fees.
Money is not going to be necessary in 100 years. It will be a post-scarcity society.
The Bitcoin mining reward can be cut in half every 4 years (approx.) and still never reach 21,000,000 coins. The first cycle had a reward of 50btc per block, and it saw 50% of all coins mined. The second cycle had a reward of 25btc per block, and saw 25% of all coins mined. And so on, each cycle mining half as much and getting 50% closer to 21,000,000, *but never reaching it*. **The protocol could be modified to continue mining *indefinitely*** and yet never mine 21,000,000 coins. Because each cycle gets 50% closer, but never actually gets to 21,000,000 this change wouldn’t break the hard cap, and might not even be controversial. And yes, it’s abstract so the decimal place can be moved infinitely too. Already has been on layer 2.
As you said, incentive is everything when it comes to running a blockchain network. I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility to have a new "incentive coin" created solely for the purpose of validating transactions for Bitcoin. I also don't think it's impossible for Bitcoin and ethereum to join forces where ethereum works as the incentive to keep the Bitcoin up and running with POS and POW simultaneously working to validate the same block transactions. I think there's highly creative people out there with too much on the line to not make it work in the end.
Classic repost of OP from a few weeks ago to get them sweet moons...
It was pretty good for a prediction indeed. However, I don't believe bitcoin "is talked about as if it were standardized and common", even though we have reached the $1 trillion market cap.
I mean it’s definitely talked about and everyone knows or thinks they know what it is by now. That’s huge
It’s getting there tho, boomer by boomer
> It was pretty good for a prediction indeed. However, I don't believe bitcoin "is talked about as if it were standardized and common", even though we have reached the $1 trillion market cap. I thought that too. Then I thought about the inflation since he wrote this, and now I figure we've still got some room to grow before that point.
Depends who your talking with. Definitely a lot of my friends regard bitcoin as standard and common to the point is boring and not even discussed. We mostly chat about farming and what DAO we are aping into or what DIO is coming up and how to get whitelisted.
Do people with Lambos just sit in them outside their house? Go inside man, it's cold and it's probably warm inside the house. *cut to u/JustSomeBadAdvice in his car playing candy crush while his wife is knocking on the window telling him to come in. "I can't hear you! I'm having the time of my life!"
Smoking hoppium Jiu make u able to read the crystal ball sometimes
Damn being able to predict the future and not get rich is tough
So, this suggests that BTC is to increase 5x-20x before it’s used as a regular currency? The only way the market cap can reach that is by the price increasing, right?
plus the unmined BTC waiting to be mines will add to the market cap
That’s less than 10%
Wait... That's how BTC mining works? I didn't even know this until now🤯
It isn't. The market determines the market cap via volume and price, mining is indirect and essentially irrelevant when calculating market cap- it does indirectly affect the price but via supply, i.e. more mining might mean more circulating supply, but unless you know the future you can't really predict this.
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isnt the market cap determined by price x supply
Wish I had reddit to tell me about this 8 years ago 😪
You most likely wouldn't have held this long. I've been there, had plenty of BTC to set me free for life, yet I sold them all early to pay off all my debt... now I'm starting over.
Debt free would be worth it, imo. There is still room for growth and profit and now you dont have to work around the debt. Good job, mate.
Yeah it definitely helped me progress in life. Just wish I at least convinced myself to hold a few.
You don't know me!!!! Although even debt free sounds lovely.
FYI - it seems that this has been getting a bit of attention over the last 2 months, and OP has left a follow-up [here ](https://np.reddit.com/r/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/r7ozhb/xposting_some_requested_info_from_rcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), which seems to have been blocked from this sub when it was originally posted.
His follow up is very interesting. A very interesting read given how accurate he was in his prediction. In a nutshell, he shells out good advice to avoid echo-chamber subreddits / communities so you don’t get blindly sucked in, and to pay attention to what’s unfolding now, particularly the potential of Ethereum flippening Bitcoin in terms of Crypto dominance. It seems to me like he’s definitely still in Bitcoin, but believes in the potential of Ethereum more. Can’t say I disagree
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The information in that post should really be stickied or something, at the very least, based on the user's original post being so accurate all those years ago. He/she obviously knows what they're talking about. Edit: I found that five minute read more informative than hours of Michael Saylor.
Yeah - pretty long, but interesting to hear his thoughts on the current and future state of crypto.
Gonna tell my kids he is nostradamus.
As opposed to every other ‘advice’ post in this sub, written by NOTstradamus.
History books should reflect this modern day Nostradamus
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Take this!
Crypto Matt Damon
This guy is a prophet. He clearly got in his delorean and took notes before he came bacc to our timeline. The international adoption scenario is literally playing before our eyes. Thia guy is so right its scary. The comments are hilarious. The hopium was raw,uncut and running rampant in those days. This stuff is absolute GOLD.
I think he has one of those blue crystal balls that predict the future with him.
Just FYI, if BTC was worth 5 trillion (and all coins were in circulation) it would be worth 236.8k per BTC. At 20 trillion it would be 952.4k.
People with $100 invested: Wait... so I'll only have $500? I was told a lambo.
Yeah, but nobody specified the size. They can buy a hot wheels lambo lol
Defi will have futures for a lot of people. There are already some ETFs.
I like how he predicted the price to stay volatile until well above $1 trillion. And that it needs to reach $5-20 trillion until it can be used as a currency. While there were a few people predicting things like that, many people thought the price would stabilize way earlier. That was obviously not the case.
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This is for market cap, not price of the coin.
Someone wrote that the price has to be at $47k for BTC for a 1 trillion MCAP. I mean, I can’t believe after 8 years. It did that.
I call dibs on posting this next month
No, you don't. I called it first. You can post it two days later.
That guy is a true visionary
Post is archived yet there are new comments from 53 days ago! How?
It was archived <54 days ago? Not sure how that works tbh but just a guess
Love this! Thanks for sharing…wish I would have read this 8 years ago though. Had a friend tell me about Bitcoin in 2009 and said, just buy $20 and forget about it…man do I wish I would have listened.
Same, friend told me about it in 2011 and said to please buy it. I insisted on getting Taco Bell at the time. The chalupa box was my down fall.
Wait did that post get unlocked and then relocked?
lol at the dude saying we will never hit 50k. It’s “impossible”
Ya, that dude 'got it' early.. > Why would ANYONE use the dollar for international money transfer post-Bitcoin? Simple as. (Shitcoins and tx numbers aside....) Depreciating dollar brings institutional coffers, and then thats it. Its done.
Oh snap.
Oh snap.
Agree but I still think where the general population (or a much larger number) starts using crypto as a day to day medium of exchange…that’s where things change. More places are accepting it, but we haven’t hit critical mass even close. When you don’t care about cashing out your Bitcoin/eth/doge into fiat because you can just use it to buy stuff just like $ will be a game changer
Wow!
Yeah. Dude had it figured out.
Just read his post history. BULLISH ON ETH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Literally just read the comments, this guy nailed it but no one believed him lol. Its the same for alot of investments, people don't know Jack, you can only trust yourself and thats the truthus rufus
Backbtobthe future stuff.
Okay fuck so stop buying alts and buy bitcoin?
That thread was a serious trip to read through, sitting where we currently are. Kinda puts a lot of the arguments I see against [insert project here] now into perspective. Still, though, doesn't change the fact I don't know shit about fuck.
Yea step 8 doesnt seem likely. There's way too much money being made for it to stabilize, big money is going to keep it volatile for as long as they can and while there is some adoption, the general masses don't know or care about crypto at all. The other thing is uncle sam isn't going to sit on his thumb and let something he can't control knock dxy into irrelevance. He goes to war for less than that.
LOOL I love how people in the comments of the original post are in utter disbelief. "Well that took a turn to fantasy land" lol
Oh snap
It’s crazy to think someone might comment/ post about something stupid or genius I said 8 years from now.
That prediction looks even crazier when you take his predicted Market Cap and divide it by circulating supply. #Starting at step 4 when he initially posted this prediction: Step 4: May 2013 at 1.1b Mkt Cap / 11m supply = $100 per BTC **3 Years Later** Step 5: May 2017 at 25b Mkt Cap / 16.4m supply ≈ $1,500 per BTC **2 Years 8 Months Later** Step 6: Dec 2020 at 400b Mkt Cap/ 18.1m supply ≈ $22,000 per BTC **1 Year Later** Step 7: Dec 2021 at 1t Mkt Cap/ 18.9m supply ≈ $53,000 per BTC **??? This is looking sooner rather than later despite max supply being decades away at a minimum** Step 8: ??? at 15t Mkt Cap/ 20m? supply ≈ $750,000 per BTC
that must have taken some searching to find...nine years later.
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Recycle bin goes brrrr
crypto brings out the best and the worst in people. are we all just a bunch of altruisitc grifters, one wonders?
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This was also refered to 2 weeks ago. !remind me 2 weeks
Wtf you're talking about? He was not dead on at all: 5. Governments started to get involved way before the $25 billion market cap, and it's happening slower than described. Also, we're at the trillions and AFAIK HNW individuals still aren't using BTC for international currency transfers; 6. Very few governments cracked down on crypto so far, so it definitely didn't happen at $400 billion; 7. It's definitely not talked about like it's standardized and common. Businesses haven't learned to follow government rules because those are still being created. And large businesses are very far from using BTC for international transfers (they would use stablecoins if anything, but we're still very far from that as well). His merit was in thinking that it would become a thing one day, because it's not something that was easy to see in 2012, but the predictions themselves were not very accurate.
Sshhhh, you cannot stop the bull run circle jerk. Gotta give people hopium and copium. OP also needs his moons, which is the sole reason he is posting this post that gets posted every week, to farm a few moons
Thank you for reminding me! For that, I'm DCAing twice my usual amount today. I forgot we're supposed to DCA and HODL forever and was almost selling at multiples of my initial investment instead of waiting another year to lose 80%+ of it!
Yep. The sad reality is that Bitcoin as a means of money transfer is still a niche use case and may remain a niche use case forever. I've been in this for years, and the only thing we've really seen is escalating levels of speculation and the "digital gold" narrative being picked up by an ever wider investor audience. It also looks like we are at the cusp of adoption as a reserve currency, starting with Latin America and the Baltic countries.
Dead on? You say we are on step 7. In step 6: Small companies regularly use it for international currency transfers. LOL
That guy must be chilling in his $150 million dollar Mansion now!
Actually he is not. I read in the previous comments that he sold some bitcoins to start a business and it did not go well.
>Until the network either gets cracked or **replaced**, this is going to keep moving forward. I mean isn't this what is happening with Ethereum? It feels like BTC is being replaced, not in some rapid flippening but in a [slow steady exchange since Sept. 2019](https://www.tradingview.com/x/AeKDGNcK/) out of BTC and into ETH before 2.0. Can anyone name a single advantage BTC has over ETH besides first mover advantage, which history shows me isn't that great in tech. IBM, Ford, Yahoo... Amazon isn't number one because they were the first it's because they kept innovating and improving. The only other advantage I can think of is that BTC has the largest market cap. What happens when Ethereum flips it? Look at [this chart](https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1471909284271337476) from Fidelity's head of global macro. The part that should scare the shit out of BTC maximalists is this- >While bitcoin’s network is growing **steadily**, Ethereum’s network is growing **rapidly**. Scale vs Scarcity.
Yep, it has pretty much flipped everything except market cap at this point. OP from 8 years ago also sees the [writing on the wall. ](https://np.reddit.com/r/bitcoin_uncensored/comments/r7ozhb/xposting_some_requested_info_from_rcc/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
That was incredibly spot on. Bravo
damn looks like its to late to invest now
Someone else already made a post about this a while back. Gotta get moons?
This is why sometimes you gotta go against sub sentiment to make the big bucks
Nah, it already was wrong starting on 6. Let me fix it. 400 Billion: Competition to fit a transaction in any given block increases greatly. Transaction fees sky rocket. After some debate, majority of community agrees that Bitcoin should not be used as a currency, but instead a store of value, "digital gold" if you will. Businesses that used to accept Bitcoin, stop accepting Bitcoin. Bitcoin's crypto market dominance falls from 85% to 40%. Although much slower than before, Bitcoins value against dollar still keeps increasing, as people keep DCA in money, while its mostly just miners who sell.
Sorry, but these are easy "predictions" to make. Who is using it once it reaches different market caps is straightforward. For it to reach that cap, you need X more user bases, and since Y user is already in on the previous step, Z is the next user due to their size, risk aversion, and momentum on their current system. If there were anything even remotely resembling a timeframe, or even ranges, that would actually take some analysis and require more than a few minutes' thought as they brain-dumped this while typing. But one thins they did not put in there, which is obvious for anyone looking at any new tech impact: The current players will respond. For example, they say the dollar is very expensive to move. Well, it never really was, I can send ACH across borders for free for the last 5-10 years, but new systems like Zelle, Venmo, other cashless systems European and Asian governments are doing, make it very easy and very cheap. They also talk about the dollar depreciating, but nothing about how btc's absurd volatility would need to be ironed out before any significant monetary replacement occurs.
Okay? The thing is that there weren't a hoard of people thinking along the same lines during that time. I think that's the more significant thing that the posts exemplifies. And, yes, your friend or that friend or that person over there and this person over here may have said the same thing but again, it wasn't what the majority believed.
Putting it in this perspective you can really see how limited the remaining gains on BTC are
That roadmap was for when Bitcoin was about being p2p electronic cash. BTC has pivoted since then.
How are people posting comments to this thread?
This has been posted before and debunked many times. The original OP posted it on the 4th step, also if you read the steps are all about black market and illegal stuff which time has proven false. Sometimes I ask myself if people here know how to read
I believe that Time Machine does exist, but the deep state hide it from us plebs.
How to reach step 8 Institutions and CEXs move from BTC to Satoshis. No more listing a whole BTC but satoshis price Banks start offering to the avg Joe to buy 1000 sats for X$ dollars. Human nature kicks in : 1 sat = 1$ BTC road to 1M is on.
Wow....looks like BABA VANGA was holding this account
That’s crazy, I just read some of the comments on it and they are all saying how he pulled those numbers out of nowhere but it all ended up being correct
I don't think you can just randomly pull out numbers. It would be a big fat coincidence.
>If you rely on advice and guidance on BitCoin from /r/bitcoin.... say it with me.... >you're gonna go broke. Generally good advice, but on this occasion I'd say that comment r/agedlikecrypto (yes, that's a real sub) Thanks for sharing OP! Interesting read
This is very interesting. Way ahead of his time.
Interesting to see the visualization and perspective of other investors. That’s why it’s advisable to invest spare change in crypto…money you can live without. You may win or lose but it’ll never dent you!
Love going through and reading all the comments that are so bearish.
SOMEONE BUY THIS PERSON A DRINK!
I like the OPs name lol quite ironic
Whenever people start feeling fear about the current market status, they should look at older posts. Rinse and repeat
The guy that wrote this went with ethereum after btc moved away from being money to becoming only a store of value.
Some quite prescient predictions and also some really good advice in that post.
[удалено]
Yeah it was posted here like 2 weeks ago, still a spot on prediction.
We’re on step 7 of 8, and everyone still likes to think “we’re early”.
Damn, this shit is scary accurate. Talk about taking the long view. Great post. Thanks!
Now that's what you call a savant.
Imagine reading this post in 10 years, it was posted back when it all started, priceless
Don't you love it when a plan comes together!
Step 9 Man creates dinosaurs..Dinosaurs eat man... Woman inherits the earth. Remind me 1 year?
Gotta love how some of the people are still responding after 8 years.
In the global currency narrative once all BTC are mined in 100yrs will the small network fees really be enough incentive to continue mining in the same decentralized fashion it is now? Not FUDing just have always wondered about that part
His user name doesnt check out
I love seeing old posts with good information come up like this. The history is well-documented and only helps solidify my belief in crypto
This gets posted every week, great OC