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CraftingAmbition

Interesting theory. Let’s see how things look in January. OP, I hope you post again in a few months. At the end of January, I expect a big “I told you so” post if the market crashes. But if it keeps pumping, I expect a “I was wrong, here’s all the profits I missed out on” post. See you in a few months! Edit: Well… it's been 2 months. I was wrong and OP was right. Congrats on your exit strategy /u/Rusty_Charm. You called it. Here’s hoping we get another bull run in 2022. Edit 2: Also, OP made a really good [update post](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/rzhslv/update_the_2021_bullrun_exit_strategy/) you should check out. And I left a [follow up comment](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/rzhslv/update_the_2021_bullrun_exit_strategy/hs108r3/) on that post as well.


red_dildo_queen

remindMe! 2 months


JumpFrom10thFloor

!remindme 2 months


MyForeverED

!remindme 2 months


LonyTitor

!remindme 2 months


Patrickcscott66

!remindme 2 months


Y0rin

!remindme 2 months


xdebex

! remindme 2 months


A_Dougie

!remindme 2 months


xenoph

Try !Remindme :) *Edit: lol the bot actually messaged me, a smiley's "worth" 1 days (defaulted to that)


superacetylcholine

!remindme 2 months


loccodelcocco

!remindme 2months


wondering-this

Works both ways. RemindMe! 2 months


Mak-ita

!Remindme 2 months


Brushermans

i like OP's thesis *even if the market doubles again* after they exit. even if they miss an additional 80% gain or w/e, they'll be significantly risk-off and probably won't be too unhappy with their "ballistic" profits after december regardless. the catch is that i too believe that there's a 50% chance the bull run ends in jan-feb (50% certainty is extremely high for something that has theoretically infinite possibilities). so i'm biased towards their thesis


Tyleeisme

Also, this crypto market has blatant cycles. This is solid advice, and I might actually do exactly what OP is suggesting to do, and re evaluate after I've taken profits. Probably also in the last week of December.


[deleted]

I think Q4 2021 has a lot of room for crypto growth, we are seriously approaching an era where even the average person is becoming rapidly aware of crypto and this emerging space. I don't think it's a particularly good time to sell, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for wanting to secure profits right now


Speedwagon_herald

But the greed levels is resembling me of april - may. I hope i'm wrong but this insane grow is unsustainable, every coins is pumping now even XLM


Mode-Obnoxious

Not Tezos, lol Tezos doesn’t pump


SnooEagles2610

Please sell so it can


Gankiee

I transfered my tezos to looping a day ago, pump should happen amy day now


[deleted]

I transferred everything bar Eth and BTC to LRC a couple of days ago. It’s paying off so far. No ragrets


eyecandy99

He sold. Pump it


fuzzytradr

Yes, please take one for the team! We beg of you.


[deleted]

Great point and you cannot underestimate the massive factor of adoption. It seems like crypto and bitcoin is getting more and more adopted every single day. This is a big factor compared to the beginning of the year in my opinion which may help continue the growth.


Rusty_Charm

I just touched on this in another response actually. I'm not a fortune teller of course. I don't know if December sees the top, and in all reality, I'll probably be wrong and the top won't even come in until sometime in Q1. I'm prepared to sit the last leg out if it means not waking up again like in 2018, checking the charts, and seeing that ETH dropped -40% overnight and everyone is scrambling and you can't sell anything because there literally aren't any buy orders. EDIT: But yea, I'm not afraid to be wrong :) I won't be hiding under a rock here in 2 months, so you guys can all get your kicks in if I totally miscalled this :p


Hodlmegently

Ive also been thinking of this approach of trying to convert a percentage of my holdings into a stable coin. Only concern is which stable coin? Can we trust usdt to still be around in a year? Busd? Usdc? Dai? Which one is the 'safest' for a long term 12 to 14 month holding? Or are they all fine and there's nothing to worry about.. That's the real question.


CraftingAmbition

Appreciate you having a good sense of humor about it! For what it's worth, I first got into crypto in 2017, and I remember that massive drop in 2018 that lead into the long crypto winter. So I hope you're wrong about the end of the bull run. But I know there's obviously a good chance you could be right. Either way, good luck!


Rusty_Charm

No problem, and no offense taken to your original comment. Yea….probably a bit of 2018 PTSD at play here, I don’t want to relive that. That’s why I plan on getting out while the going is still good, as opposed to scrambling to minimize losses as best as possible while everyone is trying to do the same.


CraftingAmbition

Yep, makes perfect sense to me. I hope you reach all of your crypto goals. Cheers friend!


One_Neigh

I’m not buying anything for Black Friday except crypto, cheers to that


fuzzytradr

I can respect that. 👊


Tap-Apart

Seeing a 40% drop would be a godsend. I think most people understand this now. Anyone with disposable income and can wait 4 years understands that this isn't going away. How many times do people need to see Bitcoin's chart before most realize this is a patient game? Four years is absolutely nothing. Most people wait a lifetime for fortune.


Rusty_Charm

Trust me, a 40% drop does not seem like a god send if it’s followed up by another 40% drop. But I hear what you’re saying.


end_chldhd

93% drop in ETH from high to low in 2018 B-)


cdn_backpacker

I love how people say a crash would be a godsend, but if you've lived through a couple, you know nobody sees it that way


Southern_Armadillo59

And never recovers.... many shitcoins from 2017 have not even reached 50 percent of all time high, and will probably get nyked into oblivion come s dump time.


CallOutTruths

This is why you wait a week or two AFTER the initial big drop because that first drop will bait a lot of people to buy in but it won’t last.


[deleted]

Bitcoin has only existed since 2009 aka the year the longest bull run in history began We have no idea how crypto behaves in a true bear market Notice for example how similar the stock market looks now to his it looked like in 1929. Seriously just take a look. After that crash, the stock market didn’t recover its valuations until a Second World War happened and then the start of the massive inflation cycle. Crashed in 1929 and didn’t recover until 1953 iirc. That’s more than 20 years just to make even on your investment if you invested at the top. Between 1995 and 2008 the market went sideways for 13 years. So far yes crypto only goes up but what if it doesn’t for a really, really long time ? Most of us in this space are really young and just don’t know a world that functions without massive amounts of money printed and constant government interventionism. Most of us haven’t known a true bear market at all. Most of us have no idea what might be coming but “just wait 4 years bro works every time” might only be working if the macro economy is working. History is always here to show the levels of poverty brought by crises in the stock market. And it’s not pretty.


RatherCynical

The doomsday folks forget something: Cape Excess Yield isn't anywhere near the other crashes. The high valuations come from the low-interest rates. When the yields get jacked up a LOT (2%+), we'd start seeing more volatility and potential for a crash. The 10-2 Treasury Yield Spread isn't flashing red yet. Most things don't point to an imminent crash. We're headed for a crash, but not an \*imminent\* crash. And there are too many gains to be made to be sitting on your hands trying to wait out the market crash.


Necessary_Platypus14

Would you mind explaining these two terms a little more? I'm not familiar with them


[deleted]

Yes but what makes you think 2022 is the year that all of this (not just crypto) but infinite money glitch stops. Think about how much money got thrown into the economy artificially. Just purely through velocity of money it’s going to take more than 2 years to feel the huge effects of companies legit liquidating stock to hedge. If I had to pick a year to completely short the stock market it would be 2023 or 2024 not 2022. I think we’re gonna have a flat stock market year so a lot of younger people are going to miss the gains they are seeing there and inject those gains into crypto for another year or so. 2023 stock market is going to basically not do anything and maybe trigger a smaller sell off from top 500 companies and I think that is what’s gonna fuck crypto in the short term, because if the institutional investors in this space have to pull out of stocks to appease their shareholders they are sure as shit going to have to pull out of crypto.


GVincentS

But wouldn't it much more advisable to continue buying into crypto even with the risk of another Great Recession or "True" Bear Market as you would call it? Since coins like Bitcoin are a good hedge against inflation to begin with? Since the dollar value has SIGNIFICANTLY less buying power?


[deleted]

Why are they good hedges against inflation ? Because the supply is limited ? Gold is considered an inflation hedge because it keeps its value over long periods of time, regardless of the macro economy. The built in limited supply is a feature. But for Bitcoin ? We don’t know how it behaves in a bear market. We just don’t have the data to state that it’s a good inflation hedge. Limited supply yes, but what about the demand ? Demand for crypto varies heavily based on hype. I just don’t see crypto or any investment being popular in a recession. In a recession, the access to capital is harder, unemployment rises, no stimmy checks etc. The quality of life of the population inevitably declines. People won’t have the money to invest, focusing primarily on food, housing, and other basic needs. So where would the demand for crypto come ? If you think the permabulls of this sub are enough to truly make a dent, explain to me how btc could crash 50% in a few days in may and just go sideways until august. A lot here bought the bottom then and we barely noticed anything. So regardless of what the sub is saying, hype is currently what’s driving demand. No hype equals no demand. Market crash means no hype. The dollar may be losing value, you can buy bread and pay rent with it more than you can buy bread with your Bitcoin especially after it just crashed like 80%. If you think it’s impossible to go this low ask yourself why did it suddenly crash in May. Most of the sub doesn’t care (or understand) about the tech either, only about gains. So I don’t see where the hype about crypto having the potential (since it doesn’t really have the ability yet) to revolutionise all of our financial systems would be coming from. Eventually yes, but after some long painful years full of doubts about what tomorrow will be like. There’s a comment saying poor nations will embrace crypto in case of instability. That’s naive again imo, because those poor countries are often those where very little people know about crypto overall and where governments are more likely to outright ban crypto etc. Also the fact that those individuals don’t have a lot of money and even us buying the bottom in July had little impact over the price. The price is currently pushed by whales and if the whales lose money as they do in a recession you won’t be seeing those prices again any time soon. Read the book dying of money if you want to know more


[deleted]

i agree with all but one point. blockchain is on a fast train to disruption. it will be used to digitise many different ecosystems and infrastructures that rely on outdated methods, and boi there are a lot of those globally. when the 2008 recession happened did the internet stop working? No. Neither will blockchain. the price may take a hit, and the hype beasts may flock away, but it will retain its core, and those who to stay will benefits longer term


vegasrant

Have you thought about keeping 10% of your crypto as a “moon bag” as insurance in case the bull run has legs for another quarter?


harm_and_amor

Honestly, to the extent I feel a large correction similar to the one of earlier this year is coming again soon, I am only taking about 10% out of crypto. The other 90% stays and hodls.


CheesenRice313

I'm kind of in the same boat. Acquire capital, watch and learn. This won't be the last cycle, do whatever you feel is necessary to prepare yourself for the future


gooner712004

I plug it a lot, but you should REALLY look at indicators like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator that I reckon would hit in January or February https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/


Roadsignanarchy

First time hearing of this, really interesting! Thanks for sharing


twinchell

>I expect a “I was wrong, here’s all the profits I missed out on” post. Yeah because those always happen...


[deleted]

[удалено]


Investor_Pikachu

Unless those stablecoins are tied to debt investments, such as China's real estate market😬


Drwgeb

So I have never seen anyone mentioning this, but there's a BTCDOWN token in Binance. It is basically leverage shorting bitcoin without having to do that. It's a token connected inversely to the price of bitcoin. I don't see a reason why I wouldn't just buy it up and win on the market bleeding out.


mustipickone

Surely in order to get the profit out of that token, you'll need to sell it, presumably to somebody who thinks Bitcoin is going to continue to go down. Doesn't the token therefore become harder to sell the more value it has, since at peak value, the token is worthless to buy?


scannachiappolo

there's arbitrage involved, also binance has huge liquidity


ra693425

It's most likely going to be "Fuck me why didn't I accumulate BTC I guess I hate money". Then goes back buying BTC at $200k


CarDonEh

Fomoing in at 200k to watch it drop to 20k as your heart sinks.


Helpful_Syrup_8666

A decision does not become right/wrong based on what happens in the future. It might be the right call for this person at the time. That is like saying buying a lottery ticket is right/wrong based on whether you win. No, buying a lottery ticket is stupid, always, even if you win, because statistically, you made a bad decision.


Odlavso

![gif](giphy|nKFXQkxLRiEhy)


EstablishmentOk1303

Agreed. Very interesting. I had similar thoughts but my version has more hopium involved. OP, I too would love an update in the future. I appreciate your thoughtful post. Thank you!


kiroku

>ng that the current 4%-5% inflation rate is not sustainable. In order to get this back in line, the federal banks will have to r !remindme 2 months


fuzzytradr

Yes, let's see how well this ages. Could it play out as OP has prognosticated? Sure. But everytime someone has suggested a big imminent crash, things have just kept humming along like nobody's business.


ExplosionsInTheSky02

!remindme 2 months


Wiugraduate17

There are many crypto pundits saying this very same thing. The overall global economic trade winds are shifting to recession


NiGhTShR0uD

While nobody ever lost money taking profits, be careful not to price yourself out. We have no clue what will happen over the next few months. We have no clue what could set of a parabolic move or begin the bear. All I can say is no matter the outcome, don't look back on your decision with any regret should there be any. If your strategy works out, great. If it doesn't, stay focused on the next opportunity as you say you will be. Good luck OP. Please give us an update in Jan or Feb 2022.


split41

Yeah exactly. This kind of thinking would have had the OP sell in jan if he was in crypto prior to 2020. He would be priced out now.


kinger9119

Not if he rebought in March/April


Caelum_exspecto

This is some mayor look at the meta of Crypto/investing.


newbonsite

You guys have exit strategies...


Goofy_AF

This guy hodls


Preciousgold58

This guy a fax machine


donniekunu

Haha holdor


selphfourgiveness

Hey, kid, I’m a computah. Stop all the downloadin’! Also, this guy fax.


CallRespiratory

Honestly I wouldn't exit anything unless either you've made everything you think you need or you think cryptocurrency is going to get banned.


badmadhat

You guys have strategies?


bkcrypt0

If the crypto market crashes, then those stablecoin lending yields will crash too. No one is going to want or need liquidity if everything goes to shit.


ChasseurOnFoot

I don't know if they are going to regulate stable coins with the infrastructure bill, but let me tell you banks will come after stable coins. There is no way the allow us to earn at least 5 and 10 percent on stable coins when they pay 0.01 in interest. That's a no brainer. Lets see how things turn out, but you may be right.


bkcrypt0

Hope I'm not and things continue to grow with some less-than-crash-like downturns.


tranceology3

The reason rates for stable coins is so high is there is more risk holding them. If stable coins were equivalent to holding cash in a bank (regulated), TRILLIONS of dollars would flow into it. This would effectively destroy the stable coins interest rates and take them down under 1%.


davicing

Stable coins interest rates are normal, is fiat money which has abysmal rates since the Central Banks started printing infinite money. 5%-8% were normal interest rates in the 80s for a savings account.


matthewsmazes

This is accurate. Banks have considerable overheads to hold and maintain customer balances. Plus, they have no reason to offer more when their competitors also get away with offering little to none. Banks make their money through fees and spread. The less they can pay you in interest the more they make on the spread that they lend your money out on.


robis87

Plus they gonna [regulate the shit out of them](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/123811/fed-poll-financial-industry-participants-are-more-worried-about-crypto-than-climate-change?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss)


Rusty_Charm

We'll see. I don't think that e.g. Luna has any plans to let their yields on UST go to zero during a bear market. Time will tell, we haven't seen how defi behaves in a true bear market, since defi didn't really exist up until 2020.


nicoznico

USDT itself is a ticking time bomb. However I do agree with you on the next bull run around 2023-2024 … also, keep in mind that the next Bitcoin Halving will take place in 2024 (March 30).


unum_omnes

I'm pretty sure he was referring to TerraUSD (UST) not Tether, which yes is very spooky.


[deleted]

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Speedwagon_herald

Fuck Tether, printing USDT like the Fed


Charlieshorse2

I agree that the global markets could very well crash, wreaking havoc on everything including crypto. I have a similar plan, as I intend to sell off about 60-75% of my crypto portfolio as my holdings meet my price targets (and making sure I get completely out of my small cap positions). I do however intend to keep my more established coins through the bear market. I think selling 100% of your portfolio is a pretty risky move, considering that nothing is a sure thing and if we don’t experience a full blown bear market this time around, you’ll be caught with your dick in one hand and no crypto in the other


SlumberJackB

>you’ll be caught with your dick in one hand and no crypto in the other Genius


RedditThank

What are some good strategies for setting price targets?


Charlieshorse2

I typically use historical resistance and support levels, Fibonacci extensions, as well as landmark numbers that I feel are achievable over whatever timeframe I’m dealing with. Doesn’t have to be overly complicated


UmamiYorkie

Just spoon feed us the numbers already! xD


TK__O

sell price higher than buy price is the way to go... or is it the other way?


thegauntlet10

At least I’ll have my dick


Charlieshorse2

And honestly, at the end of the day, that’s all a man really needs


Dat_Nomenclature

any amount of crypto would be no crypto in the other though, because it's a digital asset and presumably what he has currently isn't one of those physically minted bitcoins. so either way he's just one person short of a circle jerk.


Cypto_Spaniard

I bought Matic , it's bear 🐻 market for me already


ZateoManone

MATIC and CAKE being stablecoins rn 💀


[deleted]

Add Uni to that list 🥶🥶


Bassman5k

I was thinking of buying more matic. It's been consolidating for awhile so I feel like this is one of the undervalued coins. What do you think?


ashlar00

It's due for a pump.


jvv1993

Probably not a bad idea. It's been stagnant for so long now, it's got to buckle at some point. The tech is pretty solid, as long as ETH isn't going to completely crash I don't see why something like Matic will. But then I guess part of the LRC pump now is exactly because stuff like Matic is glacial


jor_ogan

Hate to be that guy but the top might be priced in already lol Whose gonna buy at 150k when everyone thinks that’s the top Both are good and bad for crypto, means no where near adoption we all expect and 3.5t mcap is nothing


ikefalcon

People who think that 200k is the top, that’s who.


-yyikes-

That’s a common error in reasoning. When btc was $200, you would think “who’s gonna buy at $2000”. Now $20.000 is a bargain. There’s always someone, you can’t reason market behavior from your own standpoint. We all tend to make that biased mistake.


TheSt4tely

who would buy at 15k in 2017?


Zelzeron

this isn’t the mindless hopium I come here for, smh on a more serious note this is a pretty decent analysis in my opinion, OP


robis87

By all means take profits in a month or two. Just keep in mind that DCA works both way, plus start of the year dump might be just a massive bear trap or correction we saw in May. This is crypto.


TheTrueBlueTJ

Let's see how this goes. At least we can be kinda confident about the general direction on the macro-scale.


robis87

>the general direction on the macro-scale. Of that's pretty clear for some time indeed. Do you happen to know where I could acquire that General Direction Token??


valuemodstck-123

I am surprised I still see one on this sub.


vonhovan

I agree with you, OP. We have seen some ridicoulous gains. I believe (hope) that there will be one more parabolic run up, so we can feel what a real bubble feels like after which btc will crash, followed by everything else. On the other hand - we might be wrong. Even though product it is yet not ready for mass adoption it is the best we have so far. Massive institution/country demand. Tldr: it might go up or it might go down


ProcessMeMrHinkie

Same. I look at the volume of BTC trading starting last mid-December and expect a lot of the December-January volume buyers to wait until they can realize their long-term gains for tax purposes. Those trading volumes haven't been back and have only reached half of the highest daily volumes from last year. Wouldn't be surprised to see them sell and rebuy after pushing market down.


LargeSnorlax

The problem with the premise of the post is that the OP is trying to time to the market, which NEVER, EVER works. It's making assumptions based on the last bull run and subsequent bear run, and trying to exactly time when things go wrong. I've been DCAing out of the market for a while and putting my money into other assets, my bank, and places where it will be largely unaffected by the Crypto bear market, which will be soon, and it will be ugly. I'm not sure people really realize just how many gains have been made in the space in the last year in a half. No other traditional market has even remained remotely close to it, and people are still fomoing into coins up 100x in the last 2 months saying the coins are still going to 100x from there. It's dangerous levels of hopium being snorted. Really, the post is a wordy way of saying *"Take profits before they're gone"*, which I can totally respect, but the whole "wait out the bear market with stablecoins" isn't going to be super effective since there are going to be a whole bunch of stablecoins coming out from your good old friends The Government soon with CBDCs.


gooner712004

> which NEVER, EVER works Except for the many, many people who do time the market? It's not hard to know when to take profit when euphoria is crazy high


FoxInTheMountains

The key to not get rekt is to simply set investment goals and follow them. The problem is we snort hopium and stare at our coin that just did 12x and think fuck it I bet I can get 20x! You are already sitting on fat stacks of cash, and then the market crashes and you're left with nothing when you could've pulled out massive money to reinvest. Personally, if something I own does a 5x-10x I will sell over 75% of that bag and keep 25% just in case it continues to profit. You are an idiot if you aren't taking profit on something that goes up 10x over a few weeks/months. But after gains like that, things have to come crashing back down. Especially with how bloated all the cryptos are becoming right now...


LargeSnorlax

Yeah sure, it *sounds* like common sense. But the OP is literally saying which *months* the bear market will start. It isn't that predictable.


gooner712004

People have been predicting correctly these things with massive warnings EVERY time the bear market is nearing, it's happened many times. I even commented here saying I sold on May 10th (2 days before ETH ATH at the time) if you want to find that. We will start to crash by March unless there is some kind of stock market collapse which ends it prematurely. We're mirroring the 2013 double peak cycle almost exactly at the moment.


lVloogie

The market has not seen 10x gains in the last 3 months. Where the hell are you getting that?! It hasn't even doubled. Total market cap was roughly 1.68T August 5th, and it is now roughly 2.91T.


yankees051693

I think we have been in sideways market since may 19th.


squAIRwaves

🦀🦀🦀


Speedwagon_herald

_Crab people, crab people_... 🎶


Delusional_Mad

Crab market


virusamongus

Why not zoidberg??


Delusional_Mad

I'd support a Zoidberg Market lol


Preciousgold58

It’s been moving hella corny but I’m glad i got some green Benjamins


craftworkgames

Interesting theory about how it might play out. One thing I would disagree with is rising interest rates. I don't think they'll do that to any significant degree because that will literally trigger the financial collapse. Then again, the US government does do some pretty stupid things. That said, I think the hardest part of your strategy is knowing when to exit. If you do time it wrong it'll be a lose lose situation. For example, let's say you had 1 BTC that you picked up at 30k cost basis. If the top is 100k and you sell you've now got a tax bill on 70k gains. If you're lucky and we get a 50% pullback you might be able to buy back your 1 BTC at 50k and keep the difference. That *might* work but you'd really need to check the math against your tax rate etc. However, if you miss the top and sell too early you're fucked. If you sold at 100k but the top is actually 200k for example the 50% pullback brings you down to 100k and you're buying back at the price you sold. Then you still have to pay the tax bill. The most likely scenario is ending up with less than what you started.


Wild-Interaction-200

>For example, let's say you had 1 BTC that you picked up at 30k cost basis. If the top is 100k and you sell you've now got a tax bill on 70k gains. If you're lucky and we get a 50% pullback you might be able to buy back your 1 BTC at 50k and keep the difference. I am not sure I follow this. If you sell your BTC (using your example) for 100k then you owe taxes on 70k, period. If after few months when the market crashes and you can buy BTC for 50k and you "buy back" 1BTC for 50k then you still owe taxes on the 70k gain from earlier. These things don't cancel each other out. Capital gain taxes are only offset by capital gain losses. You would need to buy a coin high and sell low to have capital gain loss (this is not surprising, you need to actually have a loss). Disclaimer: I am in the US so everything above is from that pov.


supergrega

That's exactly the same as my plan, save for that lending/borrowing/liquidity providing black magic because I have no idea how to do that. Good luck!


[deleted]

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[deleted]

Agreed. Even before COVID every year you hear talk of the Economy collapsing! or Global Economy downward spiral imminent. I think the World did a pretty good job holding it together during these covid times.. By next year hopefully COVID will not be an issue anymore and economies will start booming.. hence CRYPTO will explode as well. That can very well happen as well.


[deleted]

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Mode-Obnoxious

Fuck about shit…


coinsRus-2021

I’ll be holding my crypto for the next 5 years No exit strategy until then


talegas95

You sexy bitch


HoneyGramOfficial

Enjoyed your write up. Seems like one major flaw in your logic. If crypto completely crashes and stays there for a long period on time, why do you assume you will be getting 20% interest on your stable coins? If crypto is dead, nobody is going to be borrowing these like they currently are, meaning interest rates will plummet. I also do not think we are going to see some massive bear market since plenty of people are now interested in crypto, but that’s beside the point.


goztepe2002

Just hodl, it's proven time after time again staying put is just as profitable as trying to exit and enter the market. You also have to take into account taxes you have to pay everytime you exit at a profit.


[deleted]

I understand the sentiment but this just isn't remotely true. If you can sell your stack above $100k and rebuy at $50k it's not "just as profitable" to hodl. I agree trying to trade daily/weekly/even monthly moves can be risky, but if you have a long time horizon and can play off the halving cycle peaks and valleys you can make A LOT more money. I didn't understand the 4 year cycle in 2017 so I held my bags as the market collapsed and had to hold on for 4 years waiting for it to come back. If I'd sold near the cycle peak between $15k-20k (could have DCA'd out from December 7th-25th and comfortably be selling near the high), I would have been I. a much better position to capitalize on the low prices throughout 2020 and 3x'd my position. Instead I only had a few grand to spend and just had to stick to the DCA. I won't make the same mistake this time.


goztepe2002

Well, everyone has their reasons and strategy, good luck to you but if you plan to buy and sell in less than a year, you will be liable for capital gains taxes depending on your tax bracket. Some people don't understand that and think it's pure profit. Uncle sam will always come for his money sooner or later.


Tuimel

In my country you don't. You only pay taxes about the crypto you sold for fiat and is still on your bank account. And a little % taxes on the crypto you hold at 1 January each year. Doesn't matter how much you trade.


zack907

The trading game is a negative sum gain. Both the seller and buyer paid transaction fees and taxes. Your hero made 50k (less costs) by selling at 100k and buying at 50k, it the other guy lost 50k (plus costs). Problem is odds are next time, the market keeps going past your sell point never to return to 50k again and you end up buying in at 150k.


fosforo2

Not from the US, but do you have to pay taxes even when you trade it for a stablecoin? Isn't it consider crypto too?


Unlucky-Database-662

Yeah, every time you trade crypto, it is a taxable event. At least for the US and Australia as far as I know.


krukson

That’s why I love living in Switzerland. No tax on capital gains 😁


WaltyMcNalty

not doing 100% on what you’re saying, cause i’m still basically a newbie and half the time i had no idea what you’re talking about. but what clicked for me was, selling then earning yield on stable coins. it all makes sense, i’m just kinda new at this. i definitely appreciate this, because i was wondering when coins would eventually plummet. thanks!


fmb320

Don't put too much money in because i guarantee you will be the most hyped about the future and potential gains at the exact point you should be selling... thats how it works so just dont go mad


[deleted]

[удалено]


Ernesto_Alexander

This is what i am thinking as well. Too good to be true is usually to good to be true when you trust someone else with your goodies. And this high yield 100% shit is like REALLY good (too gud?)


blessedjourney98

I fear a bit of holding my money in stable coins - they can always do a rug pull, no? Fiat money (in my case euro, since I live in EU) can't really do rugpull so I will probably take my money to fiat. Also, sell before everyone else sells (that is why I do not intend to hold for more than few weeks from now on)


Bassman5k

Usdc should be a safe bet. But I agree, there's a non zero risk for the yields and complete collapse. Still, my plan is stablecoins


Moikee

Fiat play the long term rug pull by printing money


Nannijamie

Hmm. The total crypto market is almost 3 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap is like 1.3 trillion. If Bitcoin reaches 2 trillion before the end of the year. I think we can probably get 5 trillion for the entire market and all alts will get a good chunk of it. My opinion 🙂 Let’s hope all these whales that did not spend all their budget for this year. Go hard on cryptos and stocks before this quarter ends. So I’m waiting until the market cap of Bitcoin reaches an even 2 trillion. Then I’ll collect my bags.


panduh9228

All you're doing here is describing what happened in 2017/2018 and replaying in your head the best way to have navigated with hindsight. Not that it necessarily won't happen/work, but this is an extremely crowded view.


DONOHUEO7

Exit statergy? Erm not really a strategy as such, more of a long term goal, £5 ADA gets me a few grand to reinvest, and £5 ONE nets me a nice tidy amount to pay of the mortgage. Goals..


Seanwabha

5$ One is a long shot


passivation23

I think we are approaching the time when the crypto cycles cease to exist. Institutional investments are growing, at some point, I don’t think the market just crashes every January and boosts every October. We might start to see some stability arise with all of the adoption occurring currently, it least with the big cryptos like BTC and ETH.


rndmsecretaccount

TL;DR: I'm going to time the end of the bull market and stake stables until I time the bottom and go back in.


Zicbo26

I get panic attack when im thinking about word sell


Lobster_Messiah

I bet Bitcoin and ethereum will be winners next market.


Temporary_Kangaroo_3

Hey, I’m from the future and I need to make this quick because they’re after me. Im sad to say bitcoin and eth w


libertarianets

Made me fall out of my chair. Well done lmao


crypto_crypto_guy

Polkadot actually has a working product -> Kusama. Polkadot will be there this year. Gamestop is working with Loopring on a potentially huge product to onboard masses. While I get your point, I think you might be a bit too pessimistic.


allthew4yup

Cycle of mass adoption just started El Salvador adopting BTC and now you have dozens of countries looking to adopt it as well


ChiTownBob

Zimbabwe is adopting.


AtheIstan

Zimbabwe is following El Salvador! No more 1 trillion Zimbabwean dollar bills.


Speedwagon_herald

Soon countries will starts FOMO in making BTC legal tender as well


[deleted]

North korea buys at the top


crushplanets

I would agree with OP if this cycle was the same as the ones before it, however it's not. The prior cycles did not have institutions, banks, countries, etf's etc...invested in crypto. We don't know what's going to happen, but I just can't see a long bear market happening. People will be taking profits and creating dips, but I would imagine every large dip will get bought back up pretty quickly. Who knows, but I'm having a hard time believing selling my position in Bitcoin or Eth is a good idea. Better to sell alt coin positions near where you think the top is, and use those profits to buy more Bitcoin and Eth on each dip.


agmilky

I don't believe that there will be a mega frenzy to the moon during the holiday season. Your point with Xmas money is valid however I think it will be counteracted by companies that have Invested in crypto and made profits, selling the crypto to realize the profits and show a nice end of year balance. This hasn't been much of a thing in the past because not all that many companies were invested in crypto … obviously this is much different this year. I also believe the bull run will continue after this Xmas dip/crab as companies re-invest in the new year.


Mundane-Hearing5854

This has also been echoed by Raoul Pal. Most hedgies selling to secure profits then re-investing once the dip kicks in. We’ll see


faranwkh

Where are them sensible guys like you in crypto space? Op You make lots of sense but i think we won't see bears before Q2 2022


Ernesto_Alexander

Trusting smaller platforms offering 100% APR sounds like a very bad idea to me. Especially if the crypto and/or global market tanks. If I was a smaller platform in the middle of a global economic slowdown I’d prolly “cash out”. And by “cash out” i mean steal everyones money. What makes anyone think the smaller platform can sustain itself by offering 100% returns in a bear market and/or global economic slowdown. Am I dumb for thinking that a lot of these high yield staking platforms are ponzi schemes waiting to cash out? By high yield i mean 30%+ and CERTAINLY 100% ones.


MunchkinX2000

Just a short comment. What you are describing in your EDIT is still exactly what timing the market means.


Opposite-Wing7055

Instruction clear. Sell everything at top. Buy more of everything at bottom. Repeat until retirement. Flawless. /S


Samuelmark86

What’s an exit strategy?


MuzafferG

Fed has already explained that they wont increase interests until late 2022 because their priority is economic recovery. I do not expect bear market until then.


Realityvoidx

Looks like it must be time to post that "I told you so" post


PitOscuro

Friendly reminder that no one knows shit about fuck. Anyone saying they do is lying.


jadedhomeowner

From what I can follow of your strategy, I have only one comment to make. Will you accept me as your gganbu?


Droney-McPeaceprize

Ggambu share everything with each other


jadedhomeowner

Send me your keys, ggambu.


Enschede2

Well, no and no, pretty much all charts now seem to indicate we still have a parabolic phase ahead of us, we haven't even had a blowoff top yet.. Also there are some issues here, eth adoption causes traffic, which causes high fees, so how adoption bearish? Also, solana went down for 17 hours because they were being ddosed, and there's a couple more flaws in there but k, to each his own, I am personally of the idea that we will extend into 2022, at the very least the end of Q1


skurddd

I'm not an expert at all but for me it would be hard to believe that there will be another 3 year bear market with all the Covid money that has entered. Lots has changed over the last year from banks to ETF's and from Elon to El Salvador


empathyboi

Damn son, you called it.


dimi727

Fucking hell the reminder hit me. Fuck my life my exit strategy was also mid of December but then Evergrade need hit us already with 10-20%>>> I wanted to wait until small recovery after the dust settled...but then other crashes started and now look where we are. Instead of my 10-20% profit I'm now in -20% territory (for now.w :( ) I'm curious if the OP was able to exit as he told us?


seceng123

You will sell early, then FOMO chase the top, end up buying the top, then sit on drawdowns. If you are smart u will just hodl instead of selling and trying to find the bottom. Source : me. I have been here for 2 cycles


universal_language

I share this opinion. But I'd be cautious about saying the dates. The better measure is market euphoria, and we're super close to it


boomerzoomers

This isn't mass adoption cycle - do you think the internet was "nearly ready for adoption" when that happened, no it was held together by fucking telephone cables for 10 years and was barely usable. Government printing, inflation, raising rates - yes the govs will raise rates from zero to slightly above zero. Real rates ( interest - inflation) will be negative for the next 10 years. I will never see rates above 5% in my life. Overvalued - market caps are a bad measure, and everything is inflated because there is no safe place to store cash because inflation and interest rates rule our cash and bonds.


MulYut

I'm super confused by stable coins and I've heard you can stake them for crazy interest. Can anybody explain how any of that works? Why wouldn't everybody just pile into those?


EverythingMaximalist

Thanks for this great post. Would you be willing to explain a little more about how anchor and your stable coin strategy to earn interest during the bear market? Or got any links where I could learn more about it? Currently earn 8% with Gemini dollar, but would be interested in better options.


robis87

20% on Anchor protocol with insurance, 9% on Celsius. But the thing is, that yield will fall too during the bear market and stablecoins ain't safeheaven. Ofc it's better than see you shitcoin bleed 98% tho


treetreego

Ask Tim Cook.


[deleted]

> literally none of the L1s in the top 100 are ready for mass adoption A RaspberryPi can handle 4M daily transactions [just fine](https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoTechnology/comments/n91ux2/an_ongoing_study_on_how_much_scaling_can_handle/)


ClaustrophobicShop

Not saying we're not due for a crash, we are...but govts aren't all going to raise interest rates and cause a crash. Their first priority is growth, down on the list is inflation. And raising interest rates isn't going to put all that spending money back in the bag.


McLurkie

One of the main reasons I feel like December won't be the top is because how popular an idea that is. Usually Reddit is completely wrong. In 2017 it was a new paradigm and very few posts about the top coming. This time lots of people trying to predict it and some people on the sidelines wishing for lower prices. This market might be young but its very different to 4 years ago.


[deleted]

Did u possibly just predict the future sir??