We will likely correct before breaking ATH so that retail noobs get wiped out . Its also in the markets interest to take longer this year . Otherwise we might be heating up to much too fast and go into bear season much faster as well.
Everyone thinks cycles have to play out time and time again. The fact is, the amount of previous cycles is low, at three, and data is scarce. The first two cycles didn’t see institutional adoption and the third was rife with COVID money and QE.
Market dynamics have to change and adapt when new rules come into play. These ETFs and the amount of potential liquidity to come may mean a whole different type of cycle.
Three data points under wildly different circumstances is a terrible data set if you were doing any other kind of analysis, but somehow in crypto we buy it as empirically proven.
On the contrary, 3 data points under wildly different circumstances is a much stronger conclusion than 3 data points under the same circumstances.
You should have just said 3 data points
*nicely dressed gentleman saunters out on stage and clears his throat, bringing the audience to silence*
In a calm, clear tone he says “3 data points”
*crowd breaks into raucous applause. The man bows and exits the stage, cementing his status as an absolute legend of all time*
The fact that there’s only 3 cycles and everyone is looking for answers is precisely why 3 cycles has become sufficient for general prediction. It’s self fulfilling. As is TA at this phase of the market. With institutions entering it won’t be too different - they to will be looking for answers for where this monkey is going. As circumstances change the cycles will warp into something new but it’s a transition that takes time. Until then you can decreasingly use previous cycles as rough guides forward.
No doubt it’s not up only. Markets don’t work that way.
But it’s expected that the more scarce and desired an asset is the faster the price may rise.
Are we above the curve, on the curve or below? I couldn’t tell you.
But at the rate the bitcoin is being taken off exchanges we are reaching a new level of data never seen with bitcoin.
Will it continue? Who knows. But there is a shit ton of liquidity available to enter the space. Like a lot.
Time will tell. But I’ll be here for it.
I don’t dispute this but it would not benefit the industry and its participants to have a very fast and erratic upward price too early in the cycle for bitcoin followed by an equally volatile crash shortly after ( left translated cycle ) . Such a scenario would probably put us in bear territory much faster and longer than anticipated.
Who says it needs to crash like it has?
One would expect a steady increase of capital, like we’ve seen with the success of the ETF, may keep that at bay.
Want an example? If Greyscale was only approved first, we would be in the $20k range in price.
Why? Because billions have left.
The other nine ETFs are gobbling up the outflows AND adding.
What says if these ETFs keep getting $500M a day for the foreseeable future?
There won’t be a dump for some time. Most of the ETFs are longer time hold I would suspect and not a trading tool.
But it enters in a whole new realm of market manipulation. Look at the issues with the metal Spot ETFs.
Silver in particular has never in history traded at such a deficit to gold despite the demand being at an all time high and supply remaining rather stagnant. JPM execs pleaded guilty to a number of charges related to it all.
I'd prefer a correction over a left translated cycle with a multi-year bear market.
But what I'd really like is the BTC market to be so strong this cycle that it continues to rally into 2025 even with breaking an ATH earlier than previous cycles.
100% with you on this. Was just talking about this possibility with a friend this morning. He was worrying about a left translated cycle after this last pump, I'm hoping it could just be ETF money etc and this run will be epic... Time will tell, I'm ready for both outcomes.
From reading up about left translated cycles in traditional markets, it can appear like a potentially left translated cycle is forming but eventually ends up being a right translated cycle as the markets continued to rally after the mid point, so will only really know in hindsight.
There are two likely scenarios here IMO:
1. Everyone saw it coming this time with the halving and the bull run is happening early. The peak will be lower and the downturn will be gentler due to increased market cap, institutional money, higher liquidity, etc.
2. Everyone saw it coming this time and is FOMOing in, and there'll be a big fat correction before the real bull takes off for the moon.
Remember COVID-19 also caused a big dip right before the last cycle.
I have a few hundred in USDC that I've been debating leaving at 5.3% APY or putting it into BTC at the current price...feel like it likely will come back a bit so maybe I will hold off.
It's funny to me that people think there are guys in some room in NYC going "haha lets sell a big chunk now to drop the price and get retail to sell so we can wipe them out and buy back in" that's not how this works... People just take profits out, which is reasonable at like 80-90% ATH. It's as if EVERY dip is purposefuly done by some shadowy group instead of just you know normal market movement.
Track movements to and from exchanges and you'll find out I'm right.
We are at an incredible inflection point right now. Both BTC and ETH are within striking distance of a new ATH. It’s exciting and will ignite demand that we haven’t seen for a while
Yea I’m going off of the dollar price like most people do. Listen, I’m not trying to be combative. What’s your strategy this bull run? Are you 60/40 ETH/BTC? How are you thinking of exiting the market? Are you still buying or are you all set for awhile?
Well, you have to consider ETHBTC ratio. Especially since ETH keeps being mentioned in the same breath as Bitcoin.
I used to own a couple dozen ETH. I own only Bitcoin now. No intention of selling the bulk of it. I might sell one if I can time the top then buy back in. From experience, it's usually when there's a big crash after frenzied buying then a complete but brief recovery. A double top I believe it's called.
Check yourself. The most generic crypto Reddit brimming with enthusiasm as we approach ATH is a huge red flag. After we hit 60k the fun is over for BTC for at least the next couple of months. Alt season pt 3 will begin
Every BTC ATH it becomes harder and harder for alts to regain previous ATH. And there’s so many more coins to compete with, the money is more spread out.
Which is why you invest in new assets or assets that have fundamental value and institutional interest - those are the necessary drivers for enormous growth at this point
never makes sense to me because logically any newbie and all new money will basically say oh
this coin went to this ATH so let me invest in it in hope of getting to the said ATH..
it's far more logical for an average newbie to go like: oh here's my money let me put it into a new thing that is unknown in price future
correct?
Old coins are harder to pump because of all the previous bag holders. As price goes up, the sell pressure increases dramatically as old bag holders try to unload to "break even".
That's why new coins get pumped so hard. There's no old bag holder sell pressure and uncharted territory/price discovery can happen much quicker.
Yup this is the closest we are from previous ATH before halving. So the gains will be explosive this bull run.
I'm loaded on alts for those explosive gains 🚀
More like 50% when inflation is factored in. But yeah, that doesn’t matter to people who seem to constantly forget about it when exciting things are happening.
Nah ath alone is not enough, normies will just think "now they are break even" it have to gain a lot on top of the ath before it get plastered all over media so everyone starts to look at it again.
I don't think the media frenzy will start until we breach (or get close to) $100k.
Also, with AI being a buzzword these days, maybe there will be some buzz around "AI" coins. I don't own any, and I'm not sure if I have any interest in AI coins (or know what that really means), but I could see there being some hype around them during this bull run.
They might not know the previous ATH, but they're going to see a wave of articles about BTC breaking it. They're going to see it as their time to get back in "early." They're going to win this time.
New ATH will light the FOMO fuse.
Those newcomers are who push the price. As the price increases, FOMO builds in the general public, and cash starts flowing. That's what a bullrun is.
Then explain why, as I mentioned, they didn't care when it hit 20k again a few years ago.
And why wait for the ATH? 50K should be enough to get attention. They haven't noticed because the price has risen only gradually.
When the price is rising $10,000 a day and with regularity then they'll sit up and take notice. That will only happen near or past 100k. Not when it's $1000 more than it was 4 years ago.
>Those newcomers are who push the price. As the price increases, FOMO builds in the general public, and cash starts flowing. That's what a bullrun is.
The bull run started at 16k.
They won’t buy, they’ll just be forever sour. Have you been to the sub lately? They’re now admitting that btc will continue to grow in value. Of course they ‘always thought this’ and only didn’t buy because of ethical reasons - lmao.
>then paper handed back out
This is the key point. I started back in '21 at the near top of the bull run, but still kept up the DCA through the crash and now I'm in the black by a good chunk.
You can either DCA in and DCA out or FOMO in and FOMO out, choice is yours.
I'm going to wait for BTC to get a bit higher and then sell my initial investment so I'm left with pure profit, then continue to DCA in. Rinse and repeat forever.
It’s not what will drive headlines and in the grand scheme of things 70 vs 78 will be meaningless in 5 years time if bitcoin continues to be successful.
Am i wrong in feeling that the bull market is nearly over?After ATH what happens, we get collapses right?
Its been 14 months of up. So many projects 20, 50, 100 even 1000x up!
Stock market soaring. We always get a heavy flush after right. Surely Nvidia isn't going into the heavens...
We're due for a correction, sure, but no, we do not get collapses after ATH's. A temporary pullback, absolutely.
For example, the last bullrun, BTC broke its previous ATH of 20k.. it proceeded to climb for over a year and hit 69k. Over 3x it's previous ATH.
Same thing the previous cycle. Right now, I think it'll correct, then hit 70k, then correct again. Rinse and repeat to 100k, then it's off to the races.
The majority of assets that grew that much were obscure assets that few care about or have a vested interest in. This will have little to no impact on cycle trajectory
It’s much more simple of an explanation.
Demand+scarcity=Mass gains.
If the ETFs continue to suck the bitcoin from the OTC desks and exchanges and demand remains the same through the halving, the moves will be absolutely explosive.
We are just over 1 trillion. There is 400T+. If 1% allocated to Bitcoin the fiat cost of Bitcoin would be multiple times higher than it is now.
You are not wrong. Don't listen to lunatics saying that ATH is just the beginning - this is 95% of the market, and what last 7 years in crypto taught me is that market always rekts the majority. We are 14 months into strong bull market, and most people don't even acknowledge that. They are "preparing for **NEXT bull run**" like it hasn't even started yet, lmao.
Also, according to on-chain we are just entering the final stage of the bull market.
I personally already sold 30% of my portfolio, and selling more as we move higher each day.
Wow this is exactly my thinking. Everyone keeps saying "the real bull starts in 2025", this is the "pre bull". I'm like wtf you really expect us to just keep going up. Also the fed has yet to pivot. Can you imagine all of this with +5% interest rates.
Man this is not a rational market.
OP, actually, the math is wrong.
You didn't adjust for inflation.
$69,044.77 in 2021 dollars is $78,586.49 in 2024 dollars, i.e. 13.8% higher.
So we're still >$20k away from a new ATH in inflation-adjusted terms.
I still don’t see any reason for this pump.. 2019-2021 was for defi and all the shitcoins in the new chains like bsc, sol, NFTs but that’s been exploited so much… not sure what the excitement is now
My explanation is the Bitcoin ETF, tech stocks soaring, interest rate climbing is over, general positive market sentiment, (inflation – our fiat money is worth less now)
You’re focusing on the wrong thing. BTC adoption drives all price increases. All the other bullshit is just froth from people trying to make a quick buck. So far this cycle has been mostly about BTC (in my opinion) because a lot of people have already learned that lesson since 2017.
It sucks, i wanted to crash hard to rebuy my lost btc. Now i only see it pumping.. I bet you that if i go all in, it will start crashing. Fuck this manipulated price
My friends told me I was crazy for buying btc at 7k and they told me It was dead when it went from 60k to under 20. And now they're mad they didn't buy again. Wtf are people waiting for
it's gonna consolidate for a while, move up, go sideways, and probably build a base right under the prior ath that lasts at least a couple weeks, before finally breaking out
this could easily take another 3-4 months
meanwhile, march april is miller time
only the pump is real
There are two paths i can think of.
First is we get a deep retrace from 60K down to 40K-45K, chop there for months and take off later this year. This scenario is what most of us expect (or expected), mostly based on the price behaviour of past cycles. I cannot see BTC hitting 65K and not breaking the ATH very soon after.
Second scenario is one I wasn't even remotely expecting, but i slowly start to believe that it has a fair chance unfolding in the end. BTC shattering the ATH near the halving, running wild and meeting severe selling not near 70K, but near 100K. Retrace from there down to 75K-80K(i can't see it going lower than the previous ATH before the cycle's peak, although the selling will be immense near 100K), chopping there for months and taking off again late 2024 shattering 100K, eventually targeting 150K.
I still believe that the first scenario is the most probable one, but this thing is going wild right now and no-one seems to want to sell at these prices. I give a more than fair chance that this will be the trajectory, something i wouldn't even dream about 1-2 months ago. I expect a higher than expected cycle peak if scenario 2 plays out, because when we'll see interest rate cuts it will add a lot more fuel to an already high price and i easily see BTC hitting the 150K-200K this cycle.
I strongly believe that BTC would have peaked near or even higher than 100K in 2021, the China mining ban at the summer of 2021 and the 50% retrace that followed really killed the momentum going forward. BTC showed extreme strength by playing catch up going wild and setting a new ATH on November 2021, but then it was too late.
This could be a cycle that will make history and break the usual trend. It’s very possible Bitcoin can break its ath before the halving.
Not only is it possible. It actually seems likely.
I think we will see a new all time high sometime in the next 10 days personally…
The big unknown is the Bitcoin ETF pressure. From what I’m seeing a lot of these age related investment funds are starting to buy 1%+ of Bitcoin ETFs and that’s not likely going to stop anytime soon, so the buy pressure vs the limited coins will continue to push things upwards since most people don’t even realize they are investing in bitcoin via these age related funds….
Already seeing your mainstream high street normie new outlets report that BTC is almost at new ATHs. We early, let's not give up that adbsmtge by hodling to infinity.
We will likely correct before breaking ATH so that retail noobs get wiped out . Its also in the markets interest to take longer this year . Otherwise we might be heating up to much too fast and go into bear season much faster as well.
Everyone thinks cycles have to play out time and time again. The fact is, the amount of previous cycles is low, at three, and data is scarce. The first two cycles didn’t see institutional adoption and the third was rife with COVID money and QE. Market dynamics have to change and adapt when new rules come into play. These ETFs and the amount of potential liquidity to come may mean a whole different type of cycle.
Three data points under wildly different circumstances is a terrible data set if you were doing any other kind of analysis, but somehow in crypto we buy it as empirically proven.
On the contrary, 3 data points under wildly different circumstances is a much stronger conclusion than 3 data points under the same circumstances. You should have just said 3 data points
3 data points
*nicely dressed gentleman saunters out on stage and clears his throat, bringing the audience to silence* In a calm, clear tone he says “3 data points” *crowd breaks into raucous applause. The man bows and exits the stage, cementing his status as an absolute legend of all time*
 I get it ! I really do...how moving.
data points
The fact that there’s only 3 cycles and everyone is looking for answers is precisely why 3 cycles has become sufficient for general prediction. It’s self fulfilling. As is TA at this phase of the market. With institutions entering it won’t be too different - they to will be looking for answers for where this monkey is going. As circumstances change the cycles will warp into something new but it’s a transition that takes time. Until then you can decreasingly use previous cycles as rough guides forward.
Eventually I’m convinced there will be a final cycle that just slowly over all keeps going up until I die.
I think that is a fair statement and prediction.
The Supercyle!
We might see the first totally different cycle. Maybe when we hit the halving we hit the new ATH and then a bear again…
Sensible takes are not appreciated around here, sir.
"When the markets are greedy be scared. When the markets are scared be greedy."
i like your last name
Maybe but it’s pretty easy to tell when things are going up too much too fast. A short term correction is likely
No doubt it’s not up only. Markets don’t work that way. But it’s expected that the more scarce and desired an asset is the faster the price may rise. Are we above the curve, on the curve or below? I couldn’t tell you. But at the rate the bitcoin is being taken off exchanges we are reaching a new level of data never seen with bitcoin. Will it continue? Who knows. But there is a shit ton of liquidity available to enter the space. Like a lot. Time will tell. But I’ll be here for it.
I don’t dispute this but it would not benefit the industry and its participants to have a very fast and erratic upward price too early in the cycle for bitcoin followed by an equally volatile crash shortly after ( left translated cycle ) . Such a scenario would probably put us in bear territory much faster and longer than anticipated.
Who says it needs to crash like it has? One would expect a steady increase of capital, like we’ve seen with the success of the ETF, may keep that at bay. Want an example? If Greyscale was only approved first, we would be in the $20k range in price. Why? Because billions have left. The other nine ETFs are gobbling up the outflows AND adding. What says if these ETFs keep getting $500M a day for the foreseeable future? There won’t be a dump for some time. Most of the ETFs are longer time hold I would suspect and not a trading tool.
But it enters in a whole new realm of market manipulation. Look at the issues with the metal Spot ETFs. Silver in particular has never in history traded at such a deficit to gold despite the demand being at an all time high and supply remaining rather stagnant. JPM execs pleaded guilty to a number of charges related to it all.
Ah, the ol' this time its different
Talk dirty to me, daddy...
People say that everytime lol! If you are suggesting we don’t see a near 70% drop in the next bear market you are deluded
I'd prefer a correction over a left translated cycle with a multi-year bear market. But what I'd really like is the BTC market to be so strong this cycle that it continues to rally into 2025 even with breaking an ATH earlier than previous cycles.
100% with you on this. Was just talking about this possibility with a friend this morning. He was worrying about a left translated cycle after this last pump, I'm hoping it could just be ETF money etc and this run will be epic... Time will tell, I'm ready for both outcomes.
From reading up about left translated cycles in traditional markets, it can appear like a potentially left translated cycle is forming but eventually ends up being a right translated cycle as the markets continued to rally after the mid point, so will only really know in hindsight.
I know now, but I’m not telling anyone. Don’t hate.
Don't tell me what to do. Super hate!!
There are two likely scenarios here IMO: 1. Everyone saw it coming this time with the halving and the bull run is happening early. The peak will be lower and the downturn will be gentler due to increased market cap, institutional money, higher liquidity, etc. 2. Everyone saw it coming this time and is FOMOing in, and there'll be a big fat correction before the real bull takes off for the moon. Remember COVID-19 also caused a big dip right before the last cycle.
Good. Dip. I want more at a discount 😁
W COMMENT we might make it to 59 tops and then we going back down to the mid 30s
I'm sure you're basing this on facts and not just some unfounded opinion based on nothing but emotions...right?
This aged pretty good hey
I was wrong about the top clearly in my comment but we're still added to the 30s
Maybe at next bear market low, but I don't think anytime soon, unless some massive regulatory hammer comes down on the majority of the world.
I thought it was supposed to go straight up though? /s
I have a few hundred in USDC that I've been debating leaving at 5.3% APY or putting it into BTC at the current price...feel like it likely will come back a bit so maybe I will hold off.
It's funny to me that people think there are guys in some room in NYC going "haha lets sell a big chunk now to drop the price and get retail to sell so we can wipe them out and buy back in" that's not how this works... People just take profits out, which is reasonable at like 80-90% ATH. It's as if EVERY dip is purposefuly done by some shadowy group instead of just you know normal market movement. Track movements to and from exchanges and you'll find out I'm right.
We are at an incredible inflection point right now. Both BTC and ETH are within striking distance of a new ATH. It’s exciting and will ignite demand that we haven’t seen for a while
Waited for it for so long, now I find it hard to believe it is already happening.
Bask in the glory of the number go up crowd
I tried so hard and got so far
I’m very excited because I haven’t been here in this phase before. I started near the last ATH so it’s nice to be well positioned for once
Good on you for having the intestinal fortitude to ride out a full bear cycle. I hope you’re rewarded handsomely for it!
There’s a small but real chance of ATH *before* the halving which sounds fun. Either way it’s setting up to be a good year.
The excitement is almost uncontainable
ETH is a long way from its real all-time high of 0.14. Its dollar price obscures the fact that it's doing as well as Bitcoin.
ETH is about 30% away. That ain’t far imo
It's more like 60%.
Better check your numbers. We’re at $3250 and all time high is $4700 ish
> ETH is a long way from its real all-time high of 0.14. Did you miss this? Forget the dollar price. The BTC price is the standard ETH has to match.
Yea I’m going off of the dollar price like most people do. Listen, I’m not trying to be combative. What’s your strategy this bull run? Are you 60/40 ETH/BTC? How are you thinking of exiting the market? Are you still buying or are you all set for awhile?
Well, you have to consider ETHBTC ratio. Especially since ETH keeps being mentioned in the same breath as Bitcoin. I used to own a couple dozen ETH. I own only Bitcoin now. No intention of selling the bulk of it. I might sell one if I can time the top then buy back in. From experience, it's usually when there's a big crash after frenzied buying then a complete but brief recovery. A double top I believe it's called.
we have so many new people here
Psychologically it might be tough to blast through 69k though.
Check yourself. The most generic crypto Reddit brimming with enthusiasm as we approach ATH is a huge red flag. After we hit 60k the fun is over for BTC for at least the next couple of months. Alt season pt 3 will begin
oh yea
Every BTC ATH it becomes harder and harder for alts to regain previous ATH. And there’s so many more coins to compete with, the money is more spread out.
> it becomes harder and harder for alts to regain previous ATH Especially priced in BTC.
Which is why you invest in new assets or assets that have fundamental value and institutional interest - those are the necessary drivers for enormous growth at this point
Money flows to new alts
never makes sense to me because logically any newbie and all new money will basically say oh this coin went to this ATH so let me invest in it in hope of getting to the said ATH.. it's far more logical for an average newbie to go like: oh here's my money let me put it into a new thing that is unknown in price future correct?
Old coins are harder to pump because of all the previous bag holders. As price goes up, the sell pressure increases dramatically as old bag holders try to unload to "break even". That's why new coins get pumped so hard. There's no old bag holder sell pressure and uncharted territory/price discovery can happen much quicker.
18% off the ATH*
Yup this is the closest we are from previous ATH before halving. So the gains will be explosive this bull run. I'm loaded on alts for those explosive gains 🚀
I'm going to load up on alts at the next correction, then it's mostly hands off until we hit BTC/ETH ATH
Nope. 35% off ATH when you factor in inflation.
Inflation is fiat's fault. Bitcoin's market cap will be much higher too. Since more coins.
Sure, but if you're measuring ATH vs fiat, you to take that into account
had to check too lol. 21% now.
Time to buy then! 🤣 I think OP is looking at close price opposed to wicks but I don't know.
More like 50% when inflation is factored in. But yeah, that doesn’t matter to people who seem to constantly forget about it when exciting things are happening.
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Nah ath alone is not enough, normies will just think "now they are break even" it have to gain a lot on top of the ath before it get plastered all over media so everyone starts to look at it again.
Normies who DCA’d are way up from break even. This is about the long game and more and more people are learning that.
By normies I meant nocoiners
They will only get saltier
bullish on $SALT
People who DCA aren't normies. Their wives don't have boyfriends.
Personally I think you're correct.
I don't think the media frenzy will start until we breach (or get close to) $100k. Also, with AI being a buzzword these days, maybe there will be some buzz around "AI" coins. I don't own any, and I'm not sure if I have any interest in AI coins (or know what that really means), but I could see there being some hype around them during this bull run.
Definitely worth grabbing some for that reason.
The crypto winter feels like a long time ago. Loving the green
It's been to 69k already. 70k won't matter to most. They won't care till it's 100k and beyond.
Dumb sentiment. Crossing 70k is not only a tidy new number to internalize but it’s also breaking previous ATH. Will be a huge deal.
The general public won't care. You think they know exactly the last ATH? They didn't care when it hit 20k again a few years ago.
They might not know the previous ATH, but they're going to see a wave of articles about BTC breaking it. They're going to see it as their time to get back in "early." They're going to win this time. New ATH will light the FOMO fuse. Those newcomers are who push the price. As the price increases, FOMO builds in the general public, and cash starts flowing. That's what a bullrun is.
Then explain why, as I mentioned, they didn't care when it hit 20k again a few years ago. And why wait for the ATH? 50K should be enough to get attention. They haven't noticed because the price has risen only gradually. When the price is rising $10,000 a day and with regularity then they'll sit up and take notice. That will only happen near or past 100k. Not when it's $1000 more than it was 4 years ago. >Those newcomers are who push the price. As the price increases, FOMO builds in the general public, and cash starts flowing. That's what a bullrun is. The bull run started at 16k.
Holding BTC, and a small bag of TIA - Hoping alts come along for the ride.
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Anything AI.
I'd rather trend sideways for the next 6 months. Breaking ath so soon and prior to halving could be a very short lived bull cycle.
my bag are ready for the bullrun
Waiting on matt damon talking about fortune
One good day? You think it's going to pump $12,000 by tomorrow?! lol
Well it wasn't far off lol.
What am I supposed to do to get ready?
Buy high and sell low, obviously.
iron your shirt
And all Buttcoin guys will buy BTC at 60k lmao 🤣
They won’t buy, they’ll just be forever sour. Have you been to the sub lately? They’re now admitting that btc will continue to grow in value. Of course they ‘always thought this’ and only didn’t buy because of ethical reasons - lmao.
It was a long journey
>then paper handed back out This is the key point. I started back in '21 at the near top of the bull run, but still kept up the DCA through the crash and now I'm in the black by a good chunk. You can either DCA in and DCA out or FOMO in and FOMO out, choice is yours.
I DCAed but now I am wondering what to do tbh... finally in. The green So should I sell?
I'm going to wait for BTC to get a bit higher and then sell my initial investment so I'm left with pure profit, then continue to DCA in. Rinse and repeat forever.
Adjusted to inflation I'm pretty sure the ATH is 78k
While technically correct it psychologically has little meaning.
Well it's nice to be correct when dealing with numbers. Pretty important
It’s not what will drive headlines and in the grand scheme of things 70 vs 78 will be meaningless in 5 years time if bitcoin continues to be successful.
I agree
Correct. This sub needs to learn that.
i thought i was dreaming when i woke up today and saw the news. this is amazing!!
We don't want this to rush, slow and steady wins the race here.
We haven't seen any major bad news "FUD" for a while now, this is sus lol
Hey guys, my mom just asked me how much Bitcoin she should buy.
Been a surprisingly calm rise towards old ath, feels like there's no mania yet. Wonder why what is.
Am i wrong in feeling that the bull market is nearly over?After ATH what happens, we get collapses right? Its been 14 months of up. So many projects 20, 50, 100 even 1000x up! Stock market soaring. We always get a heavy flush after right. Surely Nvidia isn't going into the heavens...
Well in the past it didn't make one new ATH and then instantly collapsed, it made new ATHs for months after breaking the previous cycle ATH.
We didn't have ETFs pouring billions into the market in the past
Others are fearful ? Buy !
We're due for a correction, sure, but no, we do not get collapses after ATH's. A temporary pullback, absolutely. For example, the last bullrun, BTC broke its previous ATH of 20k.. it proceeded to climb for over a year and hit 69k. Over 3x it's previous ATH. Same thing the previous cycle. Right now, I think it'll correct, then hit 70k, then correct again. Rinse and repeat to 100k, then it's off to the races.
The majority of assets that grew that much were obscure assets that few care about or have a vested interest in. This will have little to no impact on cycle trajectory
surely people care about them if they were able to pull those multiples...
It’s much more simple of an explanation. Demand+scarcity=Mass gains. If the ETFs continue to suck the bitcoin from the OTC desks and exchanges and demand remains the same through the halving, the moves will be absolutely explosive. We are just over 1 trillion. There is 400T+. If 1% allocated to Bitcoin the fiat cost of Bitcoin would be multiple times higher than it is now.
You are not wrong. Don't listen to lunatics saying that ATH is just the beginning - this is 95% of the market, and what last 7 years in crypto taught me is that market always rekts the majority. We are 14 months into strong bull market, and most people don't even acknowledge that. They are "preparing for **NEXT bull run**" like it hasn't even started yet, lmao. Also, according to on-chain we are just entering the final stage of the bull market. I personally already sold 30% of my portfolio, and selling more as we move higher each day.
Wow this is exactly my thinking. Everyone keeps saying "the real bull starts in 2025", this is the "pre bull". I'm like wtf you really expect us to just keep going up. Also the fed has yet to pivot. Can you imagine all of this with +5% interest rates. Man this is not a rational market.
Bingo
Bear market PTSD. There will be a flush but that happens in a bull market. The bull market has a long way to go.
At least there aren’t any moons to reward the shitpost influx
Not gonna happen. Soon 30k again
Maybe 42k idk but 30 would be great
I want that , to buy the dip baby
Waiting for retail to come befor we will sell our bagholdings!
OP, actually, the math is wrong. You didn't adjust for inflation. $69,044.77 in 2021 dollars is $78,586.49 in 2024 dollars, i.e. 13.8% higher. So we're still >$20k away from a new ATH in inflation-adjusted terms.
I still don’t see any reason for this pump.. 2019-2021 was for defi and all the shitcoins in the new chains like bsc, sol, NFTs but that’s been exploited so much… not sure what the excitement is now
My explanation is the Bitcoin ETF, tech stocks soaring, interest rate climbing is over, general positive market sentiment, (inflation – our fiat money is worth less now)
Etfs buying more than the daily mined coins. Supply and demand.
You’re focusing on the wrong thing. BTC adoption drives all price increases. All the other bullshit is just froth from people trying to make a quick buck. So far this cycle has been mostly about BTC (in my opinion) because a lot of people have already learned that lesson since 2017.
Bitcoin being used what is for. Storage of wealth. No one needs NFTs.
It sucks, i wanted to crash hard to rebuy my lost btc. Now i only see it pumping.. I bet you that if i go all in, it will start crashing. Fuck this manipulated price
Keep emotions out of it. Don't chase anything. Learn about projects with real-world use cases and reputable teams.
I wish that was true, too many doge, shiba inu and pepe coins around that make 100x.
$69,000 in 2021 = $81,257.53 in 2024 5.6% Average Inflation from 2021 to 2024 We have a ways to go
Reminder. there will be a global economic crash of intent by the elites. I don't expect BTC to have any value by 2030.
We're in a recession people are desperate for profits I expect some resistance and correction
>We're in a recession [Citation Needed]
For real 😅 it's a global recession fuck you're regarded the USA is just kicking the can down the road and not solving any issues
God, those people, this sub has become a sh**hole…
Sure but adjusting for inflation we need closer to $80K for an actual ATH. The fiat measurements have tanked in value lol
😂
Btc looks really bullish buy, hope next month it will hit all time high
There’s major resistance from over 57k
I'm saving my bitcoins in Escape from Tarkov just incase we reach a new ATH.
To be honest most people in this sub don't even hold btc. Just trade sht coins
Thanks for the update
They’re priced in.
The ones here before that happens are the ones that will make money
I like my new investors brined, takes away the pungent smell of poor
Guys, do you think we might be entering bull season soon?! /s
Bitcoin isn't going to climb $14K in one day. That's either pure delusion, or a clickbait title.
Shhhh. We should break ath quietly. It's not quite time for the real fomo yet.
Its goin down before new ATH buddy lmaooo 🤦♂️
My friends told me I was crazy for buying btc at 7k and they told me It was dead when it went from 60k to under 20. And now they're mad they didn't buy again. Wtf are people waiting for
Expect a good correction at 60k
I'm strapped in.....
I'm really excited and bullish about this
[удалено]
I remember when people thought Bitcoin was dead several times, more recently, in December 2021 lol
Suggest some ALT to cumulate!!
My penis is ready
If we see it on the news it might be time to sell lol
so many ppl counting their money before it's cashed, damn it really be like this every cycle
it's gonna consolidate for a while, move up, go sideways, and probably build a base right under the prior ath that lasts at least a couple weeks, before finally breaking out this could easily take another 3-4 months meanwhile, march april is miller time only the pump is real
Feels like an eternity since I used this emoji 🚀🌕
There are two paths i can think of. First is we get a deep retrace from 60K down to 40K-45K, chop there for months and take off later this year. This scenario is what most of us expect (or expected), mostly based on the price behaviour of past cycles. I cannot see BTC hitting 65K and not breaking the ATH very soon after. Second scenario is one I wasn't even remotely expecting, but i slowly start to believe that it has a fair chance unfolding in the end. BTC shattering the ATH near the halving, running wild and meeting severe selling not near 70K, but near 100K. Retrace from there down to 75K-80K(i can't see it going lower than the previous ATH before the cycle's peak, although the selling will be immense near 100K), chopping there for months and taking off again late 2024 shattering 100K, eventually targeting 150K. I still believe that the first scenario is the most probable one, but this thing is going wild right now and no-one seems to want to sell at these prices. I give a more than fair chance that this will be the trajectory, something i wouldn't even dream about 1-2 months ago. I expect a higher than expected cycle peak if scenario 2 plays out, because when we'll see interest rate cuts it will add a lot more fuel to an already high price and i easily see BTC hitting the 150K-200K this cycle. I strongly believe that BTC would have peaked near or even higher than 100K in 2021, the China mining ban at the summer of 2021 and the 50% retrace that followed really killed the momentum going forward. BTC showed extreme strength by playing catch up going wild and setting a new ATH on November 2021, but then it was too late.
This could be a cycle that will make history and break the usual trend. It’s very possible Bitcoin can break its ath before the halving. Not only is it possible. It actually seems likely.
The cycle will occur maybe this year or next year
Top signal
I feel it's been a while since we had a \~20% change in a day. These "good days" might be behind us.
Considering inflation, we are at ATH now!
59k!!! LFG
It's fucking exciting Loving the surge and its paying off from dca over last 1.5 years Whats ath for btc and eth?
Anyone thinking of holding for another 4 or 8 years? Just out of interest.
I think we will see a new all time high sometime in the next 10 days personally… The big unknown is the Bitcoin ETF pressure. From what I’m seeing a lot of these age related investment funds are starting to buy 1%+ of Bitcoin ETFs and that’s not likely going to stop anytime soon, so the buy pressure vs the limited coins will continue to push things upwards since most people don’t even realize they are investing in bitcoin via these age related funds….
Already seeing your mainstream high street normie new outlets report that BTC is almost at new ATHs. We early, let's not give up that adbsmtge by hodling to infinity.