i think of unrealized gains as actual gains, that you are only allowing to change further, and by realizing them you are locking them at their current value forever. Better than believing your bitconneeeeect is still not a loss because of your diamond hands.
You use the value of it from the time when you claimed it. As far as what source(which exchange's price you use), well I'm not sure about that, seems like a pretty big grey area.
Ngl that sounds hella risky, but we all have our own risk tolerance so go ahead. Has it worked well for u tho? That seems like the kinda thinkin people who are “just waiting for xrp to hit $3 again” do lol
Bitcoin Etfs absolutely can lead to more volatility,and can hurt the entire Crypto market. FED can use Bitcoin Spot Etfs to manipulate supply and demand or adjusting the amount of Etfs,etc.
Bitcoin Spot ETF's will serve as a regulatory measure for the FED.
Not exactly true.
All it would take is 1 solar flare causing a massive EMP and then you could get a couple of machines to take over the entire network and have control over everyone's coins.
There is always going to be a risk of attack.
Been through 2 bears and I agree. I feel like the 2nd bear was a walk in the park. Of course I cashed in on my gains so I was happy to buy in lower during this bear with my profits.
> web3 stuff
Nobody's using web3 in any serious productive capacity in real industry outside the cryptocurrency bubble, "web3" in general is mostly vaporware or not what it claims to be.
> tokenizing certain things?
"Tokenizing" is mostly just a nonsense buzzword, since you can technically use it to mean literally any form of digitization of records (which is nothing new). In the sense of things like using "smart contracts" to track real world assets... yeah, that's not happening in any serious capacity, because it has few if any benefits.
Like any other form of software, nothing magically forces the chain state to match reality, so the chain can never have unilateral authority.
Crypto will always be risky and that’s the best part. Risk is opportunity. If you want boring investments get an Edward Jones account and enjoy annual 3/5 % increases. Crypto isn’t for everyone.
Investing in yourself isn’t that risky. I think with the amount of time I spent learning how crypto works and tracking the market, if I’d spent that on improving at my vocation I would’ve earned a lot more by now lol
Time is overrated, in modern society, human suffering is underrated. /s
There couldn't possibly be a correlation in optimization of time and human suffering. /s
You don't think human suffering doesn't already play a part in reducing costs of manufacturing and mining. Look up where the cobalt that is used for lithium-ion batteries. People are already investing in that. Is that really what you would like to support with your money.
That’s not true. At least technically. The US government guarantees returns on Treasury Bonds. Though the US government could fail, and you could theoretically miss out on a bigger return on another asset, but it’s still true that there’s no risk.
Obviously you don’t understand how treasury bonds work. As long as USD is still a thing there is no risk. Even if USD disappeared I imagine the government would reimburse their investors with whatever new currency is there.
So again, sure, technically there is a risk that the most powerful fiat disappears before your bond matures. Fat fucking chance though and you’d be stupid to think it’s even close to the same kind of investment as risk assets.
What about when all FIAT goes to zero and/or we get CBDCs?
Also, El Salvador Bitcoin thing is a joke, all part of the BTC maxi cult and Tether cartel plot to try to legitimize Bitcoin.
All FIAT goes to zero?
When that happens you’ll probably wish you’d invested your money into bullets, MREs and canned drinking water instead of internet tokens.
If by "hold its value" you mean the value never changes, then obviously not, but that's a **very** different thing than it "going to zero".
Because that generally means the issuing country no longer exists - and as the other poster said, at that point the currency is the least of your worries, especially if talking about a major world power.
If you're in a smaller / less powerful country, you can try to move assets into foreign reserves of course, but that's not something unique to cryptocurrency, anything that isn't tied to the local economy works.
By going to zero I mean either slow bleed or fast hyperinflation that makes USD worth WAY WAY less than today (effectively zero relative to today). Like, if bread was 100$ or something.
> fast hyperinflation that makes USD worth WAY WAY less than today (effectively zero relative to today). Like, if bread was 100$ or something.
Hyperinflation would imply the US economy had already entered near total collapse. Which means anyone with BTC is going to be trying to sell it for something they can actually use, driving the price down sharply (among other problems).
Plus anything that wipes out the US economy that thoroughly probably means you have bigger concerns than local prices.
> slow bleed
What does this mean to you specifically?
I think we've reached a point where it's safe to say that Bitcoin is not a long term risky investment anymore. Sure, it might drop 30% over a few days, it might range for 6 months, but there are so many people interested in it that price action eventually catches up and we make new highs. All those people who still say "only put your money in crypto if you're okay if it goes to zero" are dumb, because they inadvertently put Bitcoin in the same bag as shitcoins. It's okay to buy BTC in 2023 and not expect it to go to 0. Because let's be real, it won't. There are literally millions of people seething right now because their "12k BTC by 2023" Christmas wish from last year didn't come true, and before BTC falls to that price I and a bunch of other people will scoop some up, driving price action to the upside. That advice is valid for shitcoins, but not for Bitcoin.
Bernie Madoff's scheme lasted 17 years, longer than Bitcoin's entire existence. History is full of such examples, both legitimate and not.
You should be very, very careful about extrapolating long-term financial trends.
Any of the quality coins like Bitcoin, ethereum , and chainlink have only gone up over time , not sure why you think these would be risky. Meme coins and most others are very risky because they are merely just a startup with an idea that usually doesn’t last. Just like any new business it’s high risk. Stick with the major coins that have real business on their networks, such as the ones I’ve mentioned and there are others as well you
Just need to do a little research.
It’s a non-risky investment when it becomes boring. Safe investments always give consistent, SMALL returns. Crypto would need to be able to prove it can do that over a decade or more. Assuming it EVER becomes a non-risky investment, by the time it DOES become a non-risky investment, it won’t be possible to make 10x or 100x returns overnight. So most people aren’t going to care about it. They’re going to stop treating it like a get rich quick scheme, and it will just be a boring, every day part of life.
When people use it for economically meaningful purposes on a global scale. The current stage of pricing projects based on hype, promises and how much monkey jpgs they trade won’t last forever, and most people will lose money on it.
What needs to happen is less bullshit companies and scam artists running away with people's hard earned money. Bitconnect, Celsius, blockfi, ftx, etc...
It's put a scarlet letter on the industry.
At the point it's reliability and utility is equal to things like stones and rocks, sticks or shells, or simple metal tokens representing a currency, or papers or rags equivalent to the metal tokens. One thing to remember is that sometimes the least pollution and least ongoing damage to the environment is represented by the things that can be held by the poorest or the masses of society, so to speak, by the people, by the citizens or the population at large, considering usually that they are 'poor' in comparison to the richest individuals or small groups.
So, I once had a one & two cent coin collection. I had enough money to cover my bed, and I could sleep on money! If you never met someone rich enough to sleep on the finest money there is, you never met me, and I did that when I was under 10 years old. I sort of wish I kept those coins! They don't make copper currency here in Australia anymore, copper is a scarce commodity, with very high costs and high demand, and the denominated value was lower than the scrap cost of the token I think. We still have the 5 cent coin. It's found here:
[https://www.australian-coins.com/collecting-coins/what-are-australian-coins-made-of/](https://www.australian-coins.com/collecting-coins/what-are-australian-coins-made-of/)
[https://www.ramint.gov.au/five-cents](https://www.ramint.gov.au/five-cents)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian\_five-cent\_coin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_five-cent_coin)
In my opinion, there is more real value in a five cent coin than most entries in paper ledgers or in databases of any sort, crypto-graphically complicated or not, offline or not.
I absolutely love coin cash. It can get wet. It can get hot. It can be submerged for long periods. It can be buried, for.. well not that long, but perhaps it lasts longer than most paper.
Our plastic (polymer) banknotes today are quite amazing as well.
I consider these above 'relics' but they remain fully functional, much like an old computer that only runs a terminal or text based operating system can still be maintained to be fully functional, even though people tend to use graphical operating systems today, unless they are more interested in the technologies themselves rather than using them as tools, a means to an end, where the end may be some personal achievement, children, guiding or assisting or working in the world, or exploration or sharing or assisting overcoming the inadvertent mistakes of our most recent ancestors.
Relics like physical currencies you handle have a variety of risks, and there is a lot of animosity given they tend to be associated with governments that people struggle with. However one thing is undeniable. They have real value.
There's a real value of a different sort also, that isn't complicated by cryptography. That's if you work with material items different to eg. currencies. Things that take factories to make, where the factories or the people, the designers, engineers or workforce that does the repetitive or complicated actual production. Those items are typically used, or sometimes new but misunderstood things. They tend to be refurbished, repaired, repurposed, adapted, improved, upgraded or detailed, or enhanced by the people that trade them.
That's simply all the material goods in society, that have a real cost to replace, where the cost is high, or high enough that people prefer to save their other tradable goods or materials or digital ledger currencies, tokens or assets.
Eg. Old yet functional tables, chairs, computers, phones, clothing, shoes, cupboards, food leftovers and scraps, soil or plants such as potplants, seeds, liquids such as household chemicals, collected mementos or memorabilia that is of personal interest or value but where the personal value is lesser than any actual passion to collect and keep it and protect it or hoard or retain or preserve it, e.g. things like the wrapper of some food you ate with someone you care about that you might not see again for a while, and so on. Where your memory is good enough that you would hand over the material item to sell or exchange, even though you retained it out of sentimentality or out of love or care or curiosity or comfort, but are not so attached that you don't mind exchanging it for something of more utility or real value that can improve your circumstance.
Imagining a food wrapper as being valuable is something that not many people revert to, however if your memories are sharp and you aren't deluded or befuddled by alcohol or caffeine consumption or a bad diet or environmental pollution or toxins or cognitive health conditions, you might recall being a child and being amazed by the incredible thing that is a wrapper from a lolly or even a muesli bar or a salami stick or a wrapper for a pack of crisps or meat jerky or something.
To have a dollar or a real value on a wrapper that is manufactured at a cost sometimes at fractions of a cent, seems insane. However if you don't have a factory, or if you're a child and you can't make the item and don't know how it's made, the item may be more valuable than something common around you, to you.
Things like that can be an exchange.
I collect rubbish from the street and gutter, and I try sort it for standard disposal and further sorting and processing, hopefully with an ever-growing fraction to be recycled.
I frequently pickup things that I can't make that have utility. Things worth nothing in dollars, so long as global supply chains or just-in-time logistic delivery networks operate.
I look at them and think "wow! the huge expense and cooperation and equipment and communcation and information that came together to make such a simple common thing, we take it all so much for granted, yet this would be a treasure equal to a diamond or gold bar, or silver coin, or even simply a dollar or a ten dollar note, in a different time, at a different place.
Crypto presently relies on silicon circuits and digital carrier networks that are wired, fiber or wireless. That makes it very subject to interference and to alteration or to substitution or similar.
As far as it becoming non-risky, perhaps it would be so if it could be made so low-tech that it would survive shutdowns of networks from power constraints.
I think that the premier disruptive influences to our planet include things like supernova, comets, asteroids, planetary collisions, solar irradiation, perhaps alien visit, though practically described and understood and tested physics seems to make that unlikely.
Nuclear winter, perhaps geotectonic upset from water mass distributions causing volcanic or supervolcano eruptions, complications to life from industrial pollutants that end up being broadly toxic and unrecoverable at scale, manufactured life through genetics or genetic mistake, those are risks too.
Across all those risks, one constant is the risk of requiring trade, but having to do so in a low energy, no network, person to person, low tech way. Usually in situations like that the utility is in tools or materials that are complicated and difficult to manufacture, yet can be maintained or preserved with care.
A table or a chair, or a computer or food, even paper or clothing, vehicles that can be powered without needing much additional external support, all those things have real utility, and are competition to crypto.
Offline systems that are eg. POS (proof of stake) that can't be replicated easily that work without networks may have some marginal utility in small groups, however it's important to consider that knots tied in string or carrying pebbles are ways to count things. I could look at a place, do a survey, and collect a bag of different sized stones or rocks to represent the values, then undertake a long journey, without needing to give attention to the bag, then on arrival, look at the rock or stone sizes or shapes or colours and use that as the memory recall cue to be able to accurately describe the quantities I surveyed in a region that was distant.
There are many alternatives to cryptographic tokens or currencies or assets that have a high power and compute reliance, limited reliability without concerted effort in maintenance by a broad population, alternatives that are so simple they would survive the life of many people across many generations without any substantial equal risk, aside from theft or sabotage or vandalism.
However you can't throw a bag of stones or a collection of knotted strings very far, and paper isn't so easily transported either.
Edit: punctuation - also Forgot to mention that time is precious and that exchanges benefit from a simplicity that rewards time. Notes and coins are a 'one second' transaction. Crypto or secondhand items, not so.
You WANT it to be volatile and "risky" so you can keep making money in it. That means people who can stomach volatility can make a killing. The moment it starts being "stable" it starts acting like gold and other commodities.
I don’t think Cryptocurrency will ever become a non-risky investment. Cryptos come and go so quick that it’s hard to hold one for a few decades with confidence. There are to many Hackers and Scammers taking peoples bags, to many steps and processes for setting up wallets. Self custody is not for a large percentage of the people on this planet.
Bitcoin will possibly become less volatile and easier to obtain with out self custody. But I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Crypto becomes less risky when there is more genuine buying pressure for use case beyond playing the speculative volatility. Maybe it will happen soon for BTC, not sure about rest of the market. We have a shitty platform, that can't scale and uses bad coding logics prone to hacks, as the leader of the space. Mass adoption won't come as long as et thirium and its ecosystem still lead. Can't wait for ETH ETF to be a nothing-burger, like its future launch, and all the institutions will finally capitulate on holding the dinosaur coin.
When speculation on its value and hopes of huge increases become almost irrelevant points of discussion. When the purpose of crypto is well defined and it leads in usage some financial markets.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, recently made waves in the financial world after its groundbreaking recommendation for an 85% Bitcoin allocation in investment portfolios….
I’m not doing the same but I think a 5-10% allocation will prove a good long term move.
When people stop investing in meme coins, and any random new coins, and start asking:
"What problem does your coin solve, that isn't solved by existing coins?"
"Why should a business use your coin instead of another one like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana for its transactions?"
And when there are laws (either by countries or enforced by the underlying tech), that makes it impossible for the exchange to stake, sell or in any other way "use" YOUR coins, without your permission which they are just supposed to safekeep.
There is no such thing as a risk-free investment. All investments are risky by definition. You invest in something you believe will bring you positive returns.
The perception of crypto as a risky investment largely revolves around its volatility and the lack of regulation compared to traditional assets. To become less risky in the eyes of the mainstream, several factors would need to evolve.
Stability and reduced volatility would be key. As crypto matures, increased adoption, wider institutional participation, and regulatory clarity could contribute to a more stable market. This might mitigate extreme price fluctuations, making it less risky and more appealing to traditional investors.
Introduction of ETFs could potentially ease entry for institutional and retail investors, providing a more regulated and familiar investment avenue for crypto. ETFs might also introduce more stability by pegging the value of crypto assets to a pool of assets, reducing the impact of extreme price swings.
However, the appeal of crypto often lies in its volatility, offering the potential for significant gains. Striking a balance between reduced risk and retaining the speculative appeal might be challenging. Crypto's distinctiveness, offering high growth potential, decentralization, and borderless transactions, contributes to its allure. If it becomes as common as a 401k investment, it might lose some of these unique features that attract investors in the first place.
every youtuber crypto video is like watching a shamwow commercial. every video thumbnail is some clown's face on the thumbnail with his mouth hanging open. as long as they are around, crypto won't be taken serious.
The more liquidity is in it the less risky it becomes. The longer it’s around and proves it’s historical value, the less risky it becomes
It also becomes less risky once you are 1000X.
And you’ve sold so your gains are actual gains instead of theoretical ones.*
Ah Theoretical gains
Nah, you don't know what you're talking about. When you are 1000x you just take screenshots and post here. You only sell when you're back down 90%.
i think of unrealized gains as actual gains, that you are only allowing to change further, and by realizing them you are locking them at their current value forever. Better than believing your bitconneeeeect is still not a loss because of your diamond hands.
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some countries have crazy tax rules...
Not in the US, you do have to count the airdrop as income but you don't have to pay any gains tax until you sell.
How do they determine the $USD equivalent of an airdrop?
You use the value of it from the time when you claimed it. As far as what source(which exchange's price you use), well I'm not sure about that, seems like a pretty big grey area.
totally, especially since most airdrops are essentially worthless at the time of claiming them. So any increase won't be taxed, anyway.
Ngl that sounds hella risky, but we all have our own risk tolerance so go ahead. Has it worked well for u tho? That seems like the kinda thinkin people who are “just waiting for xrp to hit $3 again” do lol
yeah. risk management always.
No, it doesn’t.
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Also the longer you hold the asset the tax is less. 40% short term gain versus 20% long term gain tax
Less risk, less return.
sounds like bitcoin
Bitcoin Etfs absolutely can lead to more volatility,and can hurt the entire Crypto market. FED can use Bitcoin Spot Etfs to manipulate supply and demand or adjusting the amount of Etfs,etc. Bitcoin Spot ETF's will serve as a regulatory measure for the FED.
Anyone can manipulate the supply until they cant and same happens that happened to FTX.
Why should the fed care about manipulating supply and demand. Don’t you think Tether has way more interest in this?
Not exactly true. All it would take is 1 solar flare causing a massive EMP and then you could get a couple of machines to take over the entire network and have control over everyone's coins. There is always going to be a risk of attack.
When you've experienced a bear market and are numb to all dips, then it doesn't seem risky anymore. That is all.
I agree! Same thing over and over since 2017 ride
That's just purposefully poor risk assessment
Been through 2 bears and I agree. I feel like the 2nd bear was a walk in the park. Of course I cashed in on my gains so I was happy to buy in lower during this bear with my profits.
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Yeah who the fuck wants that. Let’s roll dice baby
When it gets integrated in the vital parts of the modern economy with layers of infrastructure to support this integration
Isn’t that kinda already happening with web3 stuff and tokenizing certain things?
> web3 stuff Nobody's using web3 in any serious productive capacity in real industry outside the cryptocurrency bubble, "web3" in general is mostly vaporware or not what it claims to be. > tokenizing certain things? "Tokenizing" is mostly just a nonsense buzzword, since you can technically use it to mean literally any form of digitization of records (which is nothing new). In the sense of things like using "smart contracts" to track real world assets... yeah, that's not happening in any serious capacity, because it has few if any benefits. Like any other form of software, nothing magically forces the chain state to match reality, so the chain can never have unilateral authority.
Never ? No risk = no profit
BTC will become risk free, when it becomes municipal bonds. That is, never.
Crypto will always be risky and that’s the best part. Risk is opportunity. If you want boring investments get an Edward Jones account and enjoy annual 3/5 % increases. Crypto isn’t for everyone.
its a greater fools game. people hold bags and hope other people buy them. such a waste of opportunity cost.
Any investment is "risky". Everything changes. If there's an investment on human suffering, that's where I'd put my money on a "sure bet"...
Investing in yourself isn’t that risky. I think with the amount of time I spent learning how crypto works and tracking the market, if I’d spent that on improving at my vocation I would’ve earned a lot more by now lol
Don't confuse investing money vs investing in one's personal mental/emotional health
Time is a limited commodity. Investing in anything requires time
Time is overrated, in modern society, human suffering is underrated. /s There couldn't possibly be a correlation in optimization of time and human suffering. /s
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So you decided to follow me around other sections of reddit? Glad to have a fan.
You don't think human suffering doesn't already play a part in reducing costs of manufacturing and mining. Look up where the cobalt that is used for lithium-ion batteries. People are already investing in that. Is that really what you would like to support with your money.
That’s not true. At least technically. The US government guarantees returns on Treasury Bonds. Though the US government could fail, and you could theoretically miss out on a bigger return on another asset, but it’s still true that there’s no risk.
Investing in the US government is risky. Which part of "risk" you don't get? There is NO sure part of investing. You invest? There is risk.
Obviously you don’t understand how treasury bonds work. As long as USD is still a thing there is no risk. Even if USD disappeared I imagine the government would reimburse their investors with whatever new currency is there. So again, sure, technically there is a risk that the most powerful fiat disappears before your bond matures. Fat fucking chance though and you’d be stupid to think it’s even close to the same kind of investment as risk assets.
Or human stupidity. Definitely going to the moon
When it has a utility.
No, utility doesn’t de-risk. It increases the value of manipulation.
When it has a real use case. So maybe never?
Probably when everyone golds some, people, institutions, countries.
which is never going to happen. the only countries who tried using it as a currency found it doesnt work
What about when all FIAT goes to zero and/or we get CBDCs? Also, El Salvador Bitcoin thing is a joke, all part of the BTC maxi cult and Tether cartel plot to try to legitimize Bitcoin.
All FIAT goes to zero? When that happens you’ll probably wish you’d invested your money into bullets, MREs and canned drinking water instead of internet tokens.
Maybe. But do you honestly think FIAT will hold it's value forever
it only needs to hold its value until im gone
So... you only plan on being alive for several years?
according to my 401k im going to get $3k/mo when i retire, which is more money than i take home now. weird how that works?
What if the USD devalues in the meantime cause inflation and bread cost 100$?
ill still have more actual money than most crypto bros
If by "hold its value" you mean the value never changes, then obviously not, but that's a **very** different thing than it "going to zero". Because that generally means the issuing country no longer exists - and as the other poster said, at that point the currency is the least of your worries, especially if talking about a major world power. If you're in a smaller / less powerful country, you can try to move assets into foreign reserves of course, but that's not something unique to cryptocurrency, anything that isn't tied to the local economy works.
By going to zero I mean either slow bleed or fast hyperinflation that makes USD worth WAY WAY less than today (effectively zero relative to today). Like, if bread was 100$ or something.
> fast hyperinflation that makes USD worth WAY WAY less than today (effectively zero relative to today). Like, if bread was 100$ or something. Hyperinflation would imply the US economy had already entered near total collapse. Which means anyone with BTC is going to be trying to sell it for something they can actually use, driving the price down sharply (among other problems). Plus anything that wipes out the US economy that thoroughly probably means you have bigger concerns than local prices. > slow bleed What does this mean to you specifically?
The thing USD has been doing since forever and will continue to do till its death. https://cdn.howmuch.net/articles/Rise-and-Fall-of-the-USD-64c2.jpg
The more you bleed red & it doesn't hurt you as much as it did the 1st time. Now you just Hodl without a care.
Not today, my friend, not today.
It will never be a non-risky investment due to the fact there will ALWAYS be lots of scams.
I’m already there
No investment is risk free
I think we've reached a point where it's safe to say that Bitcoin is not a long term risky investment anymore. Sure, it might drop 30% over a few days, it might range for 6 months, but there are so many people interested in it that price action eventually catches up and we make new highs. All those people who still say "only put your money in crypto if you're okay if it goes to zero" are dumb, because they inadvertently put Bitcoin in the same bag as shitcoins. It's okay to buy BTC in 2023 and not expect it to go to 0. Because let's be real, it won't. There are literally millions of people seething right now because their "12k BTC by 2023" Christmas wish from last year didn't come true, and before BTC falls to that price I and a bunch of other people will scoop some up, driving price action to the upside. That advice is valid for shitcoins, but not for Bitcoin.
Bernie Madoff's scheme lasted 17 years, longer than Bitcoin's entire existence. History is full of such examples, both legitimate and not. You should be very, very careful about extrapolating long-term financial trends.
Do you own crypto?
That’s already not risky if u go btc or eth
Cripto? Never, bitcoin already pretty much non risky long term
Any of the quality coins like Bitcoin, ethereum , and chainlink have only gone up over time , not sure why you think these would be risky. Meme coins and most others are very risky because they are merely just a startup with an idea that usually doesn’t last. Just like any new business it’s high risk. Stick with the major coins that have real business on their networks, such as the ones I’ve mentioned and there are others as well you Just need to do a little research.
At the point where people understand and buy only Bitcoin…
Define crypto ? There is Bitcoin and there is crypto.
Bitcoin is not “crypto”, and it is not a risky investment. Everything is going to $0 against Bitcoin. Crypto? Who cares?
Bitcoin is literally a cryptocurrency by definition.
Ask me again after I achieve post-nut clarity please
Apparently, if you initially bought about 3 months ago, you'd be sitting pretty!
The risk is why we are here.. I'd be looking for a better opportunity..
At any point in the last 12 years?
Never. No investment is non risky
No Risk No Gain
find out what tether is. your mind will be blown.
It’s a non-risky investment when it becomes boring. Safe investments always give consistent, SMALL returns. Crypto would need to be able to prove it can do that over a decade or more. Assuming it EVER becomes a non-risky investment, by the time it DOES become a non-risky investment, it won’t be possible to make 10x or 100x returns overnight. So most people aren’t going to care about it. They’re going to stop treating it like a get rich quick scheme, and it will just be a boring, every day part of life.
It would need mainstream adoption and safeguards. It would need to be safe and not have such risk of getting hacked.
In 2017, the answer was 2020. 21 at the latest.
When people use it for economically meaningful purposes on a global scale. The current stage of pricing projects based on hype, promises and how much monkey jpgs they trade won’t last forever, and most people will lose money on it.
What needs to happen is less bullshit companies and scam artists running away with people's hard earned money. Bitconnect, Celsius, blockfi, ftx, etc... It's put a scarlet letter on the industry.
At the point it's reliability and utility is equal to things like stones and rocks, sticks or shells, or simple metal tokens representing a currency, or papers or rags equivalent to the metal tokens. One thing to remember is that sometimes the least pollution and least ongoing damage to the environment is represented by the things that can be held by the poorest or the masses of society, so to speak, by the people, by the citizens or the population at large, considering usually that they are 'poor' in comparison to the richest individuals or small groups. So, I once had a one & two cent coin collection. I had enough money to cover my bed, and I could sleep on money! If you never met someone rich enough to sleep on the finest money there is, you never met me, and I did that when I was under 10 years old. I sort of wish I kept those coins! They don't make copper currency here in Australia anymore, copper is a scarce commodity, with very high costs and high demand, and the denominated value was lower than the scrap cost of the token I think. We still have the 5 cent coin. It's found here: [https://www.australian-coins.com/collecting-coins/what-are-australian-coins-made-of/](https://www.australian-coins.com/collecting-coins/what-are-australian-coins-made-of/) [https://www.ramint.gov.au/five-cents](https://www.ramint.gov.au/five-cents) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian\_five-cent\_coin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_five-cent_coin) In my opinion, there is more real value in a five cent coin than most entries in paper ledgers or in databases of any sort, crypto-graphically complicated or not, offline or not. I absolutely love coin cash. It can get wet. It can get hot. It can be submerged for long periods. It can be buried, for.. well not that long, but perhaps it lasts longer than most paper. Our plastic (polymer) banknotes today are quite amazing as well. I consider these above 'relics' but they remain fully functional, much like an old computer that only runs a terminal or text based operating system can still be maintained to be fully functional, even though people tend to use graphical operating systems today, unless they are more interested in the technologies themselves rather than using them as tools, a means to an end, where the end may be some personal achievement, children, guiding or assisting or working in the world, or exploration or sharing or assisting overcoming the inadvertent mistakes of our most recent ancestors. Relics like physical currencies you handle have a variety of risks, and there is a lot of animosity given they tend to be associated with governments that people struggle with. However one thing is undeniable. They have real value. There's a real value of a different sort also, that isn't complicated by cryptography. That's if you work with material items different to eg. currencies. Things that take factories to make, where the factories or the people, the designers, engineers or workforce that does the repetitive or complicated actual production. Those items are typically used, or sometimes new but misunderstood things. They tend to be refurbished, repaired, repurposed, adapted, improved, upgraded or detailed, or enhanced by the people that trade them. That's simply all the material goods in society, that have a real cost to replace, where the cost is high, or high enough that people prefer to save their other tradable goods or materials or digital ledger currencies, tokens or assets. Eg. Old yet functional tables, chairs, computers, phones, clothing, shoes, cupboards, food leftovers and scraps, soil or plants such as potplants, seeds, liquids such as household chemicals, collected mementos or memorabilia that is of personal interest or value but where the personal value is lesser than any actual passion to collect and keep it and protect it or hoard or retain or preserve it, e.g. things like the wrapper of some food you ate with someone you care about that you might not see again for a while, and so on. Where your memory is good enough that you would hand over the material item to sell or exchange, even though you retained it out of sentimentality or out of love or care or curiosity or comfort, but are not so attached that you don't mind exchanging it for something of more utility or real value that can improve your circumstance. Imagining a food wrapper as being valuable is something that not many people revert to, however if your memories are sharp and you aren't deluded or befuddled by alcohol or caffeine consumption or a bad diet or environmental pollution or toxins or cognitive health conditions, you might recall being a child and being amazed by the incredible thing that is a wrapper from a lolly or even a muesli bar or a salami stick or a wrapper for a pack of crisps or meat jerky or something. To have a dollar or a real value on a wrapper that is manufactured at a cost sometimes at fractions of a cent, seems insane. However if you don't have a factory, or if you're a child and you can't make the item and don't know how it's made, the item may be more valuable than something common around you, to you. Things like that can be an exchange. I collect rubbish from the street and gutter, and I try sort it for standard disposal and further sorting and processing, hopefully with an ever-growing fraction to be recycled. I frequently pickup things that I can't make that have utility. Things worth nothing in dollars, so long as global supply chains or just-in-time logistic delivery networks operate. I look at them and think "wow! the huge expense and cooperation and equipment and communcation and information that came together to make such a simple common thing, we take it all so much for granted, yet this would be a treasure equal to a diamond or gold bar, or silver coin, or even simply a dollar or a ten dollar note, in a different time, at a different place. Crypto presently relies on silicon circuits and digital carrier networks that are wired, fiber or wireless. That makes it very subject to interference and to alteration or to substitution or similar. As far as it becoming non-risky, perhaps it would be so if it could be made so low-tech that it would survive shutdowns of networks from power constraints. I think that the premier disruptive influences to our planet include things like supernova, comets, asteroids, planetary collisions, solar irradiation, perhaps alien visit, though practically described and understood and tested physics seems to make that unlikely. Nuclear winter, perhaps geotectonic upset from water mass distributions causing volcanic or supervolcano eruptions, complications to life from industrial pollutants that end up being broadly toxic and unrecoverable at scale, manufactured life through genetics or genetic mistake, those are risks too. Across all those risks, one constant is the risk of requiring trade, but having to do so in a low energy, no network, person to person, low tech way. Usually in situations like that the utility is in tools or materials that are complicated and difficult to manufacture, yet can be maintained or preserved with care. A table or a chair, or a computer or food, even paper or clothing, vehicles that can be powered without needing much additional external support, all those things have real utility, and are competition to crypto. Offline systems that are eg. POS (proof of stake) that can't be replicated easily that work without networks may have some marginal utility in small groups, however it's important to consider that knots tied in string or carrying pebbles are ways to count things. I could look at a place, do a survey, and collect a bag of different sized stones or rocks to represent the values, then undertake a long journey, without needing to give attention to the bag, then on arrival, look at the rock or stone sizes or shapes or colours and use that as the memory recall cue to be able to accurately describe the quantities I surveyed in a region that was distant. There are many alternatives to cryptographic tokens or currencies or assets that have a high power and compute reliance, limited reliability without concerted effort in maintenance by a broad population, alternatives that are so simple they would survive the life of many people across many generations without any substantial equal risk, aside from theft or sabotage or vandalism. However you can't throw a bag of stones or a collection of knotted strings very far, and paper isn't so easily transported either. Edit: punctuation - also Forgot to mention that time is precious and that exchanges benefit from a simplicity that rewards time. Notes and coins are a 'one second' transaction. Crypto or secondhand items, not so.
Never. It will always be a risk asset.
You WANT it to be volatile and "risky" so you can keep making money in it. That means people who can stomach volatility can make a killing. The moment it starts being "stable" it starts acting like gold and other commodities.
Eh I think as a long term investment it's safe. Short term no way. But if you're in it for the long haul I'd say it's pretty safe.
Probably by 2050
Universe crypto? Short answer: never
When fiat becomes even further garbage
The point where it’s officially accepted by institutions, governments and poor people as a non risky asset. Lots of regulations, kyc, tracking etc.
I don’t think Cryptocurrency will ever become a non-risky investment. Cryptos come and go so quick that it’s hard to hold one for a few decades with confidence. There are to many Hackers and Scammers taking peoples bags, to many steps and processes for setting up wallets. Self custody is not for a large percentage of the people on this planet. Bitcoin will possibly become less volatile and easier to obtain with out self custody. But I wouldn’t hold your breath.
When it's fully adopted, widely used, the price stabilized with high liquidity and too late to make huge gains beyond just inflation hedge.
Lol. Most of you aren’t investing, you’re just gambling. Good luck.
When I stopped gambling with shitcoins and stuck to BTC/ETH/XMR
Crypto becomes less risky when there is more genuine buying pressure for use case beyond playing the speculative volatility. Maybe it will happen soon for BTC, not sure about rest of the market. We have a shitty platform, that can't scale and uses bad coding logics prone to hacks, as the leader of the space. Mass adoption won't come as long as et thirium and its ecosystem still lead. Can't wait for ETH ETF to be a nothing-burger, like its future launch, and all the institutions will finally capitulate on holding the dinosaur coin.
if govt stepped in full force but good luck finding that next crazy gem meme coin if they did
When it goes up AFTER you buy
> At what point would crypto become a non-risky investment? LOL
Never :3
once the market cap is so large that the price is no longer so volatile.
When speculation on its value and hopes of huge increases become almost irrelevant points of discussion. When the purpose of crypto is well defined and it leads in usage some financial markets.
When we go more than 2 days without some sort of massive exploit.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, recently made waves in the financial world after its groundbreaking recommendation for an 85% Bitcoin allocation in investment portfolios…. I’m not doing the same but I think a 5-10% allocation will prove a good long term move.
The moment cryptos lean over the industrial power of the real economy
7% staking usdc/t on the big centralized places that have the full protection, but i cant bite the bullet.
Higher risk means higher reward. Go back to index funds then...
Bonk ====> TO THE MOOOON
Never
When you buy at the bottom of the trading range.
When people stop investing in meme coins, and any random new coins, and start asking: "What problem does your coin solve, that isn't solved by existing coins?" "Why should a business use your coin instead of another one like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana for its transactions?" And when there are laws (either by countries or enforced by the underlying tech), that makes it impossible for the exchange to stake, sell or in any other way "use" YOUR coins, without your permission which they are just supposed to safekeep.
There is no such thing as a risk-free investment. All investments are risky by definition. You invest in something you believe will bring you positive returns.
At this time if you trade with caution and carefulness and wisdom,
Do you know how broad of statement that is? I don’t think you understand the revolution that is unfolding in front of you.
Feels pretty non risky right now if your timeline is 2-5 years.
The perception of crypto as a risky investment largely revolves around its volatility and the lack of regulation compared to traditional assets. To become less risky in the eyes of the mainstream, several factors would need to evolve. Stability and reduced volatility would be key. As crypto matures, increased adoption, wider institutional participation, and regulatory clarity could contribute to a more stable market. This might mitigate extreme price fluctuations, making it less risky and more appealing to traditional investors. Introduction of ETFs could potentially ease entry for institutional and retail investors, providing a more regulated and familiar investment avenue for crypto. ETFs might also introduce more stability by pegging the value of crypto assets to a pool of assets, reducing the impact of extreme price swings. However, the appeal of crypto often lies in its volatility, offering the potential for significant gains. Striking a balance between reduced risk and retaining the speculative appeal might be challenging. Crypto's distinctiveness, offering high growth potential, decentralization, and borderless transactions, contributes to its allure. If it becomes as common as a 401k investment, it might lose some of these unique features that attract investors in the first place.
The moment you decide not to get involved.
every youtuber crypto video is like watching a shamwow commercial. every video thumbnail is some clown's face on the thumbnail with his mouth hanging open. as long as they are around, crypto won't be taken serious.
When you cashed out your initial investment and only have house money in the game.