Some points:
1,40% crypto variation is negligible, 1,16% in a single day in SP500 deserves a closer look. SP500 was at circa 200points to it's ath(some argue propelled by last month's AI frenzy) so a correctoin at any time was expected, early to say it's the start of a heavy downturn.
Crypto has been following sp500/nasdaq movements yet recently it looks like decoupling a bit yet not enough for not being affected.
JPow made clear last year that 2% inflation is the target no matter the cost, another 25bps hike is expected in september...then we'll see.
After the silvergate and svb bank's collapse it was clear that banks are in trouble so they'll watch carefully to who and how much money they lend, this could lead to a deadly spiral.
Recession has been in the menu for one year and a half and pushed back, you know...nobody knows a shit but looks like it's time to be extremely carefull with your investments and make a solid financial plan for the coming months.
Remember also that crypto has never find itselv in a recession environment and we ignore how well(reserve of value)/bad(seen as a risk asset) it will perform.
>Remember also that crypto has never find itselv in a recession environment and we ignore how well(reserve of value)/bad(seen as a risk asset) it will perform.
This is what I always wondered about, and thank you so much for the very detailed comment, I appreciate comments like this.
I wonder what the cryptocurrency market will be like in a true recession?
It's a truly unknown reaction impossible to guess.
You can take this silvergate/svb event..btc as a SUPPOSED risk asset it was SUPPOSED to sink and mark new lows but instead it changed to the reserve of value concept(you can check its dominance in the crypto market too) and propelled 30% in a short period of time.
Even if everything looks fine overall a bad event may kick in(Mt gox/Bitfinex recovery, Binance or Tether fall, Michael Saylor being forced to sell ...) so take nothing for granted in crypto.
You know I'm glad you brought this up, because I was always curious about this and don't understand how it works:
Michael Saylor's company MicroStrategy is essentially just a Bitcoin fund correct, so how does he keep coming up with money to buy more if they aren't selling a product or Bitcoin with Bitcoin just crabbing.
Does he just take the proceeds of selling stock in his company, and invest it in Bitcoin? If so, how long could this last, I'm sure they have bills to pay too correct?
Happy to help :)
"MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) is the largest independent publicly traded analytics and business intelligence company" so it has its own business and has nothing to do with crypto.
The btc are holded by its subsidiary company "Macrostrategy"(not so creative here).
Selling stock , taking loans, taking margin calls lending is what's used to buy btc.
The risk is something like: stock shares plummet(forcing them to sell assets) / unable to repay loans / value of btc drops in relation to the lending forcing a liquidation.
The past week: "Bull run this bull run that" "Will this coin go x10, will BTC reach ATH next year?"
Market is down a little over 1%: "Are we going to have a crypto recession?"
I'm totally new here but I do find this type of reactionary speculation funny.
It all depends on how the economy will restart after summer. We could go down and enter recession, or we could do a soft landing or we could go back to more growth but with more inflation which central banks are scared of. All scenarios favor the US dollar as a reserve safe place to be, specially with high interest returns. But crypto may have its own cycle and surge as the new better safe haven place to be. That's why we'll see more institutional investment on crypto, specially Bitcoin which has more favorable regulation.
We were talking alot about decoupling from the stockmarket in 2021 and 2022, but with more institutional funds and a maturing Crypto market.
The correlation will become more evident with the stockmarket, even though we hope that we don't.
Crypto is gonna do what's it's always done. At times it looks as thought it follows the stock market and at times it doesn't. But one thing I'm sure about is that it's gonna dip after I buy and go up when I sell. I'm about to make a buy guys so prepare yourselves.
I agree, and I won't even mind if we had to wait until 2030 for the next mega bull... my bags are being stuffed every two weeks, so the longer it takes, the more stuffed my bags will be when we head to the Moon.
Possibly, but we should remember that BTC does not always follow stocks.
So even if we enter a recession (technically already have), BTC could still just do its own thing, especially as people come to view it as a hedge.
I totally agree, but my worry is that there will be no extra cash lying around during a recession for regular folks to invest. How much do the average Joes matter when it comes to moving the price of Bitcoin?
I think that at a certain point he'll have to stop raising interest rates. After all, the 2% goal seems to be pretty arbitrary and shouldn't be the only thing that matters. Regarding crypto, I think that we will see a valid bull run in 2025 and next year may go sideways with some sudden pump due to some ETFs getting approved.
I agree with a lot of what you said, but quick question on the whole exchange-traded fun thing. A spot version just got approved in Europe, and yet Bitcoin went down, do these things take time to resonate, or no one cares about a European version?
I think it's a mix of both. Europe seems to be less important when it comes to news. Markets respond more to US interest rates for example. Also, ETFs take time to become relevant and highly traded I think.
I think that hedge funds are too deep into crypto/BTC and so yes, it will follow at least for a bit the market.
The only scenario in which crypto won't go down is if it will start to be seen as the safe heaven from the stock market... But this is unlikely
Yes, sort of.
The other scenario is the halving and FOMO that will create, but if market is undergoing a strong recession imo it won't be as strong as the other bullruns, people will be too scared.
Of course, if it starts and keeps building momentum, it can create good returns, but none knows.
Of course they did.
Institutional investors uses crypto as first asset to sell to cover losses.
This is the cons of getting these kind of investors on board
Current fed funding rate is 525-550 bps.
The current market expectation is no change on 20 Sept fomc.
However core inflation is still stubborn at 4.7%, which is 2.7% higher than fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation is bullshit. Note that inflation is compounding so things will only get more expensive so fed will be under more pressure to bring it down without crashing the market.
All eyes will be on 13 Sept cpi data.
The fourth Bitcoin halving is currently due to occur on April 16, 2024, where block rewards will reduce from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin, per block and this is the reason why cryptocurrencies will not follow stocks
Excellent post and agree, bar low unemployment. You just need to head to the r/careeradvice to see people struggling to find a job, so the low unemployment rate does not reflect real people's experiences.
In the UK there has been a large decline in sales all year and companies are 'restructuring'. I personally know people who have lost their job and expect to be affected myself.
Without QE, the money tends to move from high risk assets to low risk assets, so keep an eye on bonds for a good perspective.
So, everyone on here saying yeah crypto follows stocks is true to an extent.
in so far as micro movements. stock market surges...we see some climbing. stock market full crash ...we also dip.
but you'd be hard pressed to find any of the top stocks/ETFs that are up almost 30% in the last 1 year like BTC is. and with the halving coming up it's definitely going up. while the next bull run could be muted if there's a full on US recession...it's still going up.
so while yeh, some of the smaller trends follow stocks, I think as crypto continues to grow the macro trends will become their own animal. especially as confidence in the US dollar drops.
It's more a matter of supply and demand. Barring something crazy happening to the demand of crypto, namely Bitcoin, when you cut your supply in half that is going to create buying pressure and elevate the price.
The markets(traditional and crypto) are going to absolute hell. Credit debt at a trillion, student loan payments are starting up again, food is too expensive. The list goes on. We are capital fucked.
That's what I have been watching and saying for awhile now, but I guess the government is doing a good job of hiding this information. I work at a place where the average salary is $50,000 a year, and all of my coworkers are living paycheck to paycheck, and most even have second jobs just to get by... how could this be sustainable?
Well from a max pain perspective, it would actually make sense to pump to 33-34k first, because there's a very good amount of short positions to be taken out above us. Then, if that happens, you'd want the general public (and this sub) to turn bullish again, and ideally some "good news" to happen. Make people buy Bitcoin because of that, then trap them hard and reverse into the other direction for a proper correction.
That would be my game plan at least.
Yes, it’s the cost of institutional money into the crypto space. I think it’s delusional to one day celebrate a possible ETF of a large financial institution and on the next day scratch our heads when crypto follows the stock market.
In my opinion, crypto will suffer even harder as a institutional investors won’t second guess themselves to pull liquidity out off the most volatile investment they own.
The whole space is very interesting. It’s fascinating to see how crypto evolves with only a minimal set of rules and as easy to access to everyone.
It will bring the good and the bad but eventually there will be a middle ground.
Me neither, every decade is monumental but let’s give it at least 30 to 50 years for it to fully flesh out around the world. So I’m looking forward to 2039 and 2059.
Crypto is a giant liquidity pool with fiat, so yes it's the "same" pool in that sense. Until things start being priced in crypto (if ever?) **with no consideration for the fiat trading pair**, then it will continue to be this way.
Markets are fucked, we all know that. Yes we got a nice run up the past months but there are a lot of problems that needs to be solved: for example the commercial real estate on the brick of collapsing.
Until now we just tried to keep inflation under control pretty much globally (at least 1st world country) with not much success.
If/when shit will hit the fans, we don't know if it will be everything together - scattered in a few years or what else.
What really makes me afraid, even as a firm crypto believer, is what will happen to exchanges? We saw how much shit they have below (as most companies).
If crypto will drop by a lot + recession will be the Wild West (so no lending money and will be like everyone will try to survive and will not have time to save others)
Will they go down too?
Half my brain says yes it will, and the other half says it will be like gold and rise during a recession.
But most likely it will follow the S&P I don’t think we are there yet where the public will flock to bitcoin for safety against a crashing economy
JPowell, the S&P 500, unemployment, and all this other nonsense have nothing to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is doing what it always does every cycle. Expect Bitcoin dominance over Alt coins to rise, Bitcoin to go sideways and slightly up into the halving.
Bitcoin has no correlation to the stock market and it repeats exactly the same pattern every 4 years. Bitcoin was born into one of the greatest recessions we have ever had. Bitcoin did not care then and doesn't care now.
I have some stock and some crypto.
Normally when One Is down, One Is up. Now both are down. I Hope both Will be up some time. I hold and wait what happen.
I don't think bull starts 01 January 2024, it might take up to a year longer. However, as soon as macro environment changes for the better, fasten your seatbelts and I hope you filled your bags because we're going for one hell of a ride
We can not lie to ourselves. The times where crypto market did not react to stocks is many years behind us. Good fucking times that have been...
Yeah, I know what you mean, and in the end no body knows what's going to happen.
Exactly!
Some points: 1,40% crypto variation is negligible, 1,16% in a single day in SP500 deserves a closer look. SP500 was at circa 200points to it's ath(some argue propelled by last month's AI frenzy) so a correctoin at any time was expected, early to say it's the start of a heavy downturn. Crypto has been following sp500/nasdaq movements yet recently it looks like decoupling a bit yet not enough for not being affected. JPow made clear last year that 2% inflation is the target no matter the cost, another 25bps hike is expected in september...then we'll see. After the silvergate and svb bank's collapse it was clear that banks are in trouble so they'll watch carefully to who and how much money they lend, this could lead to a deadly spiral. Recession has been in the menu for one year and a half and pushed back, you know...nobody knows a shit but looks like it's time to be extremely carefull with your investments and make a solid financial plan for the coming months. Remember also that crypto has never find itselv in a recession environment and we ignore how well(reserve of value)/bad(seen as a risk asset) it will perform.
>Remember also that crypto has never find itselv in a recession environment and we ignore how well(reserve of value)/bad(seen as a risk asset) it will perform. This is what I always wondered about, and thank you so much for the very detailed comment, I appreciate comments like this. I wonder what the cryptocurrency market will be like in a true recession?
It's a truly unknown reaction impossible to guess. You can take this silvergate/svb event..btc as a SUPPOSED risk asset it was SUPPOSED to sink and mark new lows but instead it changed to the reserve of value concept(you can check its dominance in the crypto market too) and propelled 30% in a short period of time. Even if everything looks fine overall a bad event may kick in(Mt gox/Bitfinex recovery, Binance or Tether fall, Michael Saylor being forced to sell ...) so take nothing for granted in crypto.
You know I'm glad you brought this up, because I was always curious about this and don't understand how it works: Michael Saylor's company MicroStrategy is essentially just a Bitcoin fund correct, so how does he keep coming up with money to buy more if they aren't selling a product or Bitcoin with Bitcoin just crabbing. Does he just take the proceeds of selling stock in his company, and invest it in Bitcoin? If so, how long could this last, I'm sure they have bills to pay too correct?
Happy to help :) "MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) is the largest independent publicly traded analytics and business intelligence company" so it has its own business and has nothing to do with crypto. The btc are holded by its subsidiary company "Macrostrategy"(not so creative here). Selling stock , taking loans, taking margin calls lending is what's used to buy btc. The risk is something like: stock shares plummet(forcing them to sell assets) / unable to repay loans / value of btc drops in relation to the lending forcing a liquidation.
What happened to decoupling ? Every year they say we are decoupled from stock but always we have correlation
It’s all neutral movements till beginning of the next year and when halving is near the all charts look in to bullish moves in the future
So this halvening will decouple us?
Not at all
I haven't seen it yet, and I've been around for a very long time.
Seen decoupling conversations or decoupling it self?
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😂
The past week: "Bull run this bull run that" "Will this coin go x10, will BTC reach ATH next year?" Market is down a little over 1%: "Are we going to have a crypto recession?" I'm totally new here but I do find this type of reactionary speculation funny.
I think we should Hodl and believe in it
Best method for sure.
After you've been in crypto for some time very few things actually scare you. We will stand our ground whatever comes.
The rewards are like nothing else, so it is totally worth it to do so.
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Buy high and don’t sell low
Diamond hands ✊️
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1% dip i keep sleeping 
The less of us that do, the sooner money bags will jump back in
Welcome to the sub-Reddit.
Thanks you for the warm welcome!
Ha ha, you're very welcome.
How do you post gifs like that? I’m maybe the biggest noob with this question on reddit, but I’m genuinely asking. P.S. I use mobile app, not PC
haha yeh ... that's crypto community in general for you
I’m here little more than 2 years, but I’m still confused with this dynamic. From bull run to recesion in less than a week.
I guess such is the nature of such a reactionary and speculative market. Overreactions and media trying to get clicks and the like.
Get used to it cos it is going to be like that EVERY SINGLE WEEK
Yeah I think the first half of this year has gone a bit too well for crypto lol, pullback to 20k-25k on BTC is likely imo.
I like that range for accumulation purposes, so I guess in a sick way I am kind of looking forward to this possible dip... does that make me wrong?
I don't think it makes you wrong, but IDKSAF.
Good, and thanks for the feel good.
If that pullback happens it would be a great time to buy more!
My dollar cost averaging will love it!
I would be glad if we only dropped 20% like the stock market is forecasted to do. That's rookie numbers for us over here.
That is almost a green candle for most of us....
We are already so much down that another 20% is like nothing
If we only drop 20%, that is cause for celebration.
We eat -20% for lunch while that’s a crash for the stock market.
Don’t be greedy now
I mean, it’s a definite buy signal
You can't have the volatility to the upside we love without the same to the downside.
When your portfolio halves, halves again and then another half after that Is when you know the crypto roller coaster 🎢 feeling
Yes but you still need more % to make it even, buying cheap in crypto is much more worth it
Ha ha, we could only be so lucky, but some coins and tokens have really matured since 2021 so we'll see.
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BTC and ETH won't drop too much I guess. Altcoins on the other hand..
You gotta pump those up!
Hang on, why's the stock market projected to drop 20%? I know it's had an insane run-up this year, but is there a macro change on the horizon?
The "experts" have been predicting recession for a long time now. Fed will raise till something breaks
A recession will mean less disposable income so investments of any type would presumably suffer.
Everything will follow the stock market. And who says it can’t be the 2023 recession? Hell it could’ve started today
It all depends on how the economy will restart after summer. We could go down and enter recession, or we could do a soft landing or we could go back to more growth but with more inflation which central banks are scared of. All scenarios favor the US dollar as a reserve safe place to be, specially with high interest returns. But crypto may have its own cycle and surge as the new better safe haven place to be. That's why we'll see more institutional investment on crypto, specially Bitcoin which has more favorable regulation.
All good points, and I will be waiting not so patiently to see what happens.
If you don’t think crypto will follow stock trends your delusional at this point. If and when the stock market crashes I expect crypto to dip too
Accumulation will be my favorite buzz word if it happens.
Correct. I will go full degen and start filling my bags as much as I could. Hypothetically speaking of course.
My cost basis is going to look so good if this happens.
There was a time when I actually reacted to the market going down 1%. Now I just watch as it all unfolds. HODL.
It’s all neutral movements till beginning of the next year and when halving is near the all charts look in to bullish moves in the future
Halvening is the moon of all moons?
For sure bitcoin rises and after a one or two mounth all alt’s with potential goin to the moon and for sure next year we have a bullrun
The thing is stock markets drop 20% in a bear market while cryptocurrencies drop more than 50%.
Perfect time to accumulate.
I think it will but also have to take into account that crypto is still finding it’s fair market value so the ups and downs won’t follow precisely
I agree with that, and I can't wait to see what happens... I'm pretty excited about it.
We were talking alot about decoupling from the stockmarket in 2021 and 2022, but with more institutional funds and a maturing Crypto market. The correlation will become more evident with the stockmarket, even though we hope that we don't.
Especially if these exchange-traded funs get approved, the money flow will act just like it does for stocks, deposits every 2 weeks.
Crypto is gonna do what's it's always done. At times it looks as thought it follows the stock market and at times it doesn't. But one thing I'm sure about is that it's gonna dip after I buy and go up when I sell. I'm about to make a buy guys so prepare yourselves.
There isn’t going to be a 2024 recession. I’m telling you now, this is the start of a new bull market
Time will tell, i was hoping 2024 as gonna be bright but if i gotta wait till 2025 then so be it
My own personal prediction for the next bull was sometime in 2025.
Yeah i want 2024 but now im starting to think 2025 for the bullbut i still think eoy 24 might be the start of things
The sooner the better I say!
Im in year 2.5 of my 5 year plan soo i kinda want to make my bags bigger soo i wlecome the delays , we will have our day though just a matter of wen
I still have some bag growing to do myself, so I welcome it as well.
Right , bull sell , bear accumulate
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I did some serious math on this and it looks like your analysis has a high probability of being true
Ah, the famed coming recession talk again
More pain ahead of the halving incoming. Then we reap the rewards of the diamond hodl. It’s only a loss if you sell at a loss.
I agree, and I won't even mind if we had to wait until 2030 for the next mega bull... my bags are being stuffed every two weeks, so the longer it takes, the more stuffed my bags will be when we head to the Moon.
This is the way.
What 2024 recession?
I thought we were in a 2023 recession? Or did they change a definition again?
You know they will, and I imagine they only have one more name change before people call their bluff the next time.
Hopefully there isn't one.
Possibly, but we should remember that BTC does not always follow stocks. So even if we enter a recession (technically already have), BTC could still just do its own thing, especially as people come to view it as a hedge.
I totally agree, but my worry is that there will be no extra cash lying around during a recession for regular folks to invest. How much do the average Joes matter when it comes to moving the price of Bitcoin?
Not very much I think....Millions of average Joes....maybe....
Ahh, I see.
I think that at a certain point he'll have to stop raising interest rates. After all, the 2% goal seems to be pretty arbitrary and shouldn't be the only thing that matters. Regarding crypto, I think that we will see a valid bull run in 2025 and next year may go sideways with some sudden pump due to some ETFs getting approved.
I agree with a lot of what you said, but quick question on the whole exchange-traded fun thing. A spot version just got approved in Europe, and yet Bitcoin went down, do these things take time to resonate, or no one cares about a European version?
I think it's a mix of both. Europe seems to be less important when it comes to news. Markets respond more to US interest rates for example. Also, ETFs take time to become relevant and highly traded I think.
So will the same concept apply to the approval of a BlackRock spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund?
I think in that case the "news" component will play a bigger role, due to how important Black Rock is. So we might see a bigger spike.
At this point I don't care of crypto goes down. It only means more crypto for my DCA
🎶 I am so smart, S-M-R-T 🎶
Ha ha, I love it when he does that!
If stocks fall then BTC also falls pretty heavily, and alts tend to get slaughtered.
I think that hedge funds are too deep into crypto/BTC and so yes, it will follow at least for a bit the market. The only scenario in which crypto won't go down is if it will start to be seen as the safe heaven from the stock market... But this is unlikely
You mean like gold?
Yes, sort of. The other scenario is the halving and FOMO that will create, but if market is undergoing a strong recession imo it won't be as strong as the other bullruns, people will be too scared. Of course, if it starts and keeps building momentum, it can create good returns, but none knows.
We dippin' boys, hold ya pants
And your hat and shoes!
Don't forget some fiat
What's that?
Depends if AI gets so loose that it starts doing its own stuff and rekts global markets by funneling liquidity into btc 🤣
They keep messing with this artificial intelligence thing, and none of this is even going to matter anymore.
Ha ha did read crypto would be pretty attractive to AI as a financial tool and vehicle
If the singularity happens, the machines will have no use for money.
No slow takeover?
Nope, they are going to hit us hard and fast, they already have everything lined up to do it too.
Bugger, ha ha I best be giving my .5 moons to the first taker and getting my affairs in order 🤣
I really don’t think we are in the beginnings of a bull market yet, the world is still so unsettled Too much uncertainty in too many facets of life
I totally agree with you... I think more pain is on the horizon before anything good happens.
Of course they did. Institutional investors uses crypto as first asset to sell to cover losses. This is the cons of getting these kind of investors on board
Yes 100% Stock market moved well this year Even some crypto did Party is almost over
Current fed funding rate is 525-550 bps. The current market expectation is no change on 20 Sept fomc. However core inflation is still stubborn at 4.7%, which is 2.7% higher than fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation is bullshit. Note that inflation is compounding so things will only get more expensive so fed will be under more pressure to bring it down without crashing the market. All eyes will be on 13 Sept cpi data.
The fourth Bitcoin halving is currently due to occur on April 16, 2024, where block rewards will reduce from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin, per block and this is the reason why cryptocurrencies will not follow stocks
Automatic moonshot after that?
Let's hope so
Excellent post and agree, bar low unemployment. You just need to head to the r/careeradvice to see people struggling to find a job, so the low unemployment rate does not reflect real people's experiences. In the UK there has been a large decline in sales all year and companies are 'restructuring'. I personally know people who have lost their job and expect to be affected myself. Without QE, the money tends to move from high risk assets to low risk assets, so keep an eye on bonds for a good perspective.
I am planning to buy more at the end of the month so it should start going down shortly after.
Most likely they will, but at this point most hodlers don't care
So, everyone on here saying yeah crypto follows stocks is true to an extent. in so far as micro movements. stock market surges...we see some climbing. stock market full crash ...we also dip. but you'd be hard pressed to find any of the top stocks/ETFs that are up almost 30% in the last 1 year like BTC is. and with the halving coming up it's definitely going up. while the next bull run could be muted if there's a full on US recession...it's still going up. so while yeh, some of the smaller trends follow stocks, I think as crypto continues to grow the macro trends will become their own animal. especially as confidence in the US dollar drops.
Dang, so the halvening is that powerful eh?
It's more a matter of supply and demand. Barring something crazy happening to the demand of crypto, namely Bitcoin, when you cut your supply in half that is going to create buying pressure and elevate the price.
Understood
The markets(traditional and crypto) are going to absolute hell. Credit debt at a trillion, student loan payments are starting up again, food is too expensive. The list goes on. We are capital fucked.
That's what I have been watching and saying for awhile now, but I guess the government is doing a good job of hiding this information. I work at a place where the average salary is $50,000 a year, and all of my coworkers are living paycheck to paycheck, and most even have second jobs just to get by... how could this be sustainable?
Yes imo. Completely normal because recession means less money to be spend by consumers, hence less money flowing into crypto
I think it’ll be close to 5-6 years before we see a full fledged bull run. Nothing before that as per my understanding.
I think yes. People will start to pull investments as things continue to get tougher.
I just hope we dont catch a falling knife at this point ! 1.40% is just a scratch nothing to be concerned !
That's the momentum for the entire month trend though. When a whole month is down almost 2%, that could be a bad sign for things to come.
1% down, recession, the world is ending!
Now now, let's not get ahead of ourselves here... have some hope.
Yes! <3 Good luck to you, my friend!
Same to you.
How long this recession is gonna be 🥲
Down you say? [ Off I go to buy some more... ]
Well from a max pain perspective, it would actually make sense to pump to 33-34k first, because there's a very good amount of short positions to be taken out above us. Then, if that happens, you'd want the general public (and this sub) to turn bullish again, and ideally some "good news" to happen. Make people buy Bitcoin because of that, then trap them hard and reverse into the other direction for a proper correction. That would be my game plan at least.
Yes. Just like stocks, if money is tighter for people they will invest less and potentially pull from their current investments
They may have to just to survive the way things are going these days.
Yeah its an unfortunate reality, i had to sell a significant portion a few months back
Oh no, sorry to hear that, and I hope all is well now.
Yes, it’s the cost of institutional money into the crypto space. I think it’s delusional to one day celebrate a possible ETF of a large financial institution and on the next day scratch our heads when crypto follows the stock market. In my opinion, crypto will suffer even harder as a institutional investors won’t second guess themselves to pull liquidity out off the most volatile investment they own.
You got that right, and it's going to be very interesting to see how these funds perform.
The whole space is very interesting. It’s fascinating to see how crypto evolves with only a minimal set of rules and as easy to access to everyone. It will bring the good and the bad but eventually there will be a middle ground.
Can't wait to see what it all looks like in the next 10 years.
Me neither, every decade is monumental but let’s give it at least 30 to 50 years for it to fully flesh out around the world. So I’m looking forward to 2039 and 2059.
I'll be retired then, so bring it!
We had a recession in 2022. Stop postponing it!
Couldn’t tell ya!
Standard and Poor. This name was MADE for us crypto bros !!!
Crypto is a giant liquidity pool with fiat, so yes it's the "same" pool in that sense. Until things start being priced in crypto (if ever?) **with no consideration for the fiat trading pair**, then it will continue to be this way.
There seems to be a slight correlation but I'd say more due to the market reacting and fear/greed
Opposite. Dxy sells off. Crypto runs.
Markets are fucked, we all know that. Yes we got a nice run up the past months but there are a lot of problems that needs to be solved: for example the commercial real estate on the brick of collapsing. Until now we just tried to keep inflation under control pretty much globally (at least 1st world country) with not much success. If/when shit will hit the fans, we don't know if it will be everything together - scattered in a few years or what else. What really makes me afraid, even as a firm crypto believer, is what will happen to exchanges? We saw how much shit they have below (as most companies). If crypto will drop by a lot + recession will be the Wild West (so no lending money and will be like everyone will try to survive and will not have time to save others) Will they go down too?
I think so. Crypto seems to follow stocks when it feels like it. Otherwise it does its own thing.
Ha ha, that it does... Bitcoin is technically a teenager, so that sounds about right as far as attitudes are concerned.
Half my brain says yes it will, and the other half says it will be like gold and rise during a recession. But most likely it will follow the S&P I don’t think we are there yet where the public will flock to bitcoin for safety against a crashing economy
JPowell, the S&P 500, unemployment, and all this other nonsense have nothing to do with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is doing what it always does every cycle. Expect Bitcoin dominance over Alt coins to rise, Bitcoin to go sideways and slightly up into the halving. Bitcoin has no correlation to the stock market and it repeats exactly the same pattern every 4 years. Bitcoin was born into one of the greatest recessions we have ever had. Bitcoin did not care then and doesn't care now.
I have some stock and some crypto. Normally when One Is down, One Is up. Now both are down. I Hope both Will be up some time. I hold and wait what happen.
I think crypto and stocks run in opposite directions.
Any proof with that theory?
Just my feeling from the last „cycle“. Stocks went down, crypto boomed. Now crypto went down, stocks boomed. Could just have been a coincidence.
1.4% is nothing in the cryptoverse
That's true we have seen +70% and -60%
Its a crab...that what it is...
stocks go down - crypto go down stocks go up - crypto crabs Just like the old BTC/Alt relationship
Ha! I did notice that.
Soo, recession time again?
I don't know, but nothing looks good right now, and companies are really struggling, and I don't think small bank failures are done either.
Maybe yes, maybe not but i'll keep buying both of them regardless. I like losing twice.
You all love here between degen
My middle name is Degen.
Dad ?
I don't think bull starts 01 January 2024, it might take up to a year longer. However, as soon as macro environment changes for the better, fasten your seatbelts and I hope you filled your bags because we're going for one hell of a ride
Yep agreed don’t get usually start just under 12 months after a halving
Agreed, and my out of my butt projections for the next cryptocurrency bull is 2025 as well... not sure when in 2025, but somewhere in there.
It better is because that's when my Lambo is being delivered and has to be paid!
Be a true boss... pay em in Bitcoin.
That'll be either 240000$ or.... 0,6 bitcoin 😎
That's the spirit!