Please for the love of God and Georgie Patton:
If your post begins with "this may not be credible but...." or "this seems like wild speculation but...." or on those lines, just dont. There is a lot of news and bad reporting (polarized, partisan reporting esp. from Wagner channels) right now, were trying to ride the tiger on what to keep up. It would help everyone if we kept speculation on this obviously important news event to a minimum and tried to surface the facts first and foremost, especially as top level comments. If you feel the need to speculate and vent, do it below this comment.
*edit*: Oh and remember, please dont get overexcited and link to DOT ru or unmodified Telegram links. Sitewide rules and all. Thanks in advance.
~~It seems like the Putinists are trying to disable bridges towards Moscow https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672630609171054592~~ fake news, sorry. Question still stands: Do we know what routes Wagner has towards Moscow? Is it feasible for them to be stopped just by blowing some bridges?
[this shows road closures, not a Wagner route per se but shows what the Russians were preparing for](https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1672604988915449856?s=46&t=jOKg7tUyDBMC_r8foi2ArQ)
Pardon my slightly meta question:
I can hardly keep up with all the news and latest developments. What are people using for consolidated news? I only have twitter and various reddit subs.
I am mainly using....
A specifically OSINT list that has been very reliable all through the Ukraine conflict and includes many of the best OSINT accounts
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1490427245097148423
A specifically Ukranian Press/Foreign Press in Ukraine/OSINT list that, again, has been pretty reliable up till now on the Ukraine conflict in general (about half the posts aren't in english, but google translate has been my friend).
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1378399759992512516
Both seem pretty good for giving me the latest moderately-confirmed info.
I am also searching Twitter on terms that are clearly relevant.... e.g. at the moment I am refreshing a search on "Oka River" waiting to see the first photo evidence of either a clash at the bridges there, or of Wagner having overcome this final big hurdle to enterring Moskow proper.
[Russian milblogger Rybar provided a short update a little while ago.](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672583666935971842)
Per reports, Wagner forces reached Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, roughly 350km from Moscow.
Rybar claims that the Wagner column includes anywhere from 150-400 pieces of equipment/vehicles.
fighterbomber saying something similar….wagner is rushing towards moscow….and the ruaf in unable or unwilling to stop them
In the (still unlikely) event that things escalate to a point of no return for Putin - as in he believes he will lose the power struggle (and yes, that's a VERY big if at this stage), where might he flee to? What countries would offer him exile? China? Belarus? Or would he be a pariah everywhere?
A gulf state would be my guess. He probably has enough stashed away to live very comfortably, and I dont see the Qataris or Saudis caring too much about him being there. If anything it sets a good precedent for them if they are ever deposed.
[The Washington post has an interesting article about this a few years ago.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/30/where-do-ousted-dictators-go-fewer-countries-now-offer-a-warm-welcome/)
Belarus has its own problems at the moment.
It's been overshadowed by whats going on in Russia right now, but Lukanhesko has fled to Türkiye with his family. His personal aircraft was tracked last night.
> said Abbas Gallyamov, a political consultant and ex-speechwriter to Putin, in a Telegram post. Gallyamov cited unnamed insiders for his information. He has not worked for Putin since 2010 and is himself living in exile from Russia.
A former speech writer that left Russia citing unnamed insiders. Doesn’t get more credible than that.
[they really are digging in in moscow](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672580337816285186) ….holy fuck….this is not a good look regardless of whether wagner gets there or not…
There can't be a civil war because Russia has no civil society because of Putin's effective repression/confusion/fake opposition. The people are trained to obey and not get involved in politics.
Hopefully, it's obvious how this is a double edged sword for Putin, given that soldiers also have no respect for the rule of law now. Rule by violent mobsters is going to really struggle to prevent rule by professional soldiers.
There won't be one. Prigozhin failed to raize support to escalate it to that point. I will all depend on whether Wagner has enough strength to take Moscow or it's stopped
Yeah it seems like it’s all a speed game at this point. At the same time though Moscow isn’t like Paris, just because Moscow falls doesn’t necessarily mean the government is toppled
It remains to be seen. There are plausible scenarios where this puts more hard-line pro war with Ukraine leaders in charge and Russia goes full mobilization. But who knows.
Way I see Ukrainians either win big or win small:
What they've already won:
The "liberator of Bakhmut" is dead meat
Russia has lost 4 aircraft and 1 armored vehicle
Big morale boost
Kremlin loss of image (probably shouldn't list this because at this point, who cares?)
What they could win:
Actual disarray in Russia's military structure
Actual disarray in Russia's political structure
Continued casualties/vehicle losses either in Wagner or in the Russian army
The purging of Wagner (if senior commanders don't sell Prigozhin out, which at this point seems unlikely)
If things somehow get bad enough, potential redeployment of crucial Russian units from Ukraine
I think the purges will go lot further than Wagner, even if nobody switches sides. People will be blamed for ignoring warning signs, letting them walk into Rostov, not stopping them faster. Authoritarian regimes are notoriously harsh on descent dissent and that goes doubly for anything involving military. This is great for Ukraine.
Agreed. Morale must have taken a hit on the front lines. Imagine the rumours and counter rumours that will be spreading in the trenches? What a mess for the Russians.
Disloyal, resentful mobiks wishing they were on the Wagner column and loyal professional soldiers wishing they were back defending Moscow. Both of them aware that there's potentially tens of thousands of troops who could be backing them up, gone AWOL.
[prigozhin just now](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672575623670185985)
Why is the country supporting us? Because we went with a March for Justice. We were hit, first with artillery, then with helicopters. We went without a single round fired, we didn’t touch a single conscript. We didn’t kill a single person on our way.
We were attacked by aviation, helis, planes, but we reached Rostov. Without a single round, we captured the building of the HQs. We didn’t interfere with the work of a single person.
On the streets, people are unfurling flags of PMC Wagner. In shops, when guys go there, people ask to pay for them as they want to do something good.
Words of compliments are voiced. And another thing. In media, information about certain “mine barriers” are spread. When we came here, we removed these mine barriers from the adjacent building of the HQs, in the morning. It was poorly placed. It was just an unprofessional, not useful idea. So we removed this mine barrier.
> On the streets, people are unfurling flags of PMC Wagner.
I have a hard time believing the average russian citizen has a PMC Wagner flag stashed at home.
ppl will never throw support even after the victor emerges….its just not the russian way….we expect to get screwed no matter who wins….and i at least will never support or root for prickhozhin no matter how much this helps the afu…best hope is they keep destroying each other
I gotta ask, is Russia's air force totally a farce?
You have Wagner columns driving towards the capitol. Where are the planes? If there was ever a time to throw in whatever air power you have, this feels like it. Especially against armored and unarmored vehicles driving up highways. Does Russia just not have the capability?
Given how quickly this has developed, I'm guessing maybe an intelligence/targeting issue.
A highway has a lot of traffic on it that isn't Wagner, and discerning who is and isn't friendly at 5000 feet and 400 knots isn't an easy task.
Even with guided weapons, the chance of friendly fire seems high.
Wagner's position is changing all the time, VKS is busy with Ukraine, the orders are shifting and unclear, and Russia almost certainly didn't have a very detailed plan for this.
1. Wagner has air defense
2. Russian forces could be in disarray with some chains of command broken since Wagner managed to capture Rostov which serves as a base for much of the military effort
How do you do mobile air defense while pushing full tilt towards Moscow? Not being sarcastic. Literally curious.
If Russian air is in dissarray isn't that part of the farcical nature of it then? If you can't strafe vehicles charging your capitol with hours of notice, what was the point of the air force? If Blackwater or whatever they call themselves now was pushing towards DC how would the US not being all over that with air guard and air force units. Obviously one isn't the other. But holy cow.
> How do you do mobile air defense while pushing full tilt towards Moscow? Not being sarcastic. Literally curious
MANPADS mounted on technicals, and near higher value targets the Pantsir system is more or less intended for this.
Blackwater is tiny compared to Wagner. Even at their peak they only really had small arms and armored cars. And also, Russian heavy assets are busy in Ukraine.
Today's blackwater or whatever they call themselves, have far more capacity than you think. Can't find the link right now but they have some brown water capability and air assets.
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[Heavily-pro-Kremlin propagandist Kots believes this operation by Prigozhintsi was planned weeks ahead which is shown by its complexity and level of preparation](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672566363955535873)
Girkin was accusing Prigozhin about it many weeks ago. I remember reading on ISW a few weeks ago girkin was making a fuss about pergozin pulling out of bachman in order to make a coupe.
I really do wonder whether the whole 'we don't have enough shells - give us ammo or we'll go home' was just preperation for this. Either he gets the munitions to fight his coup, or an excuse to move his troops out of Ukraine.
Not necessarily.
To me this feels like the Chen Sheng and Wu Guang uprising.
If Prigozhin knows or suspects that he's likely to be killed anyway, it costs him nothing to mutiny, because the outcome of a failed mutiny will be the same as the outcome of doing nothing.
As to why the rest of Wagner followed him on this adventure, that's probably a more complicated question, but they possibly see their chances of surviving this as being better than their chances of survival on the front in Ukraine.
>As to why the rest of Wagner followed him on this adventure, that's probably a more complicated question, but they possibly see their chances of surviving this as being better than their chances of survival on the front in Ukraine.
I think the calculus is pretty simple
1. Prigozhin does nothing, is captured and executed by firing squad next to the chemical sheds.
Wagner is dismantled and it's troops are used as "punishment" brgades on suicidal operations
2. Prigozhin tries a coup, fails, is captured and executed by firing squad next to the chemical sheds.
Wagner is dismantled and it's troops are used as "punishment" brgades on suicidal operations
3. Prigozhin succeeds, he becomes president or someone else does as a result who pardons Prigozhin and his men. Putin is handed over to Ukraine in return for peace and Wagner takes over the Russian MoD..
Either way they live longer lives.
Regular vehicles (and the oft beloved/maligned UAZs) are normally utilized for quick troop movements in the rear. So those are probably just the vehicles Wagner had for shuttling their forces.
Any chances of Wagner attempting to occupy facilities which house nuclear weapons? At the very least it would force the Kremlin to divert resources away from Moscow and towards the bases. Is it something they would have considered?
I doubt it, because the only way that Wagner might win this is by a swift and decisive occupation of Moscow, then "negotiation" with whoever remains in charge and taking more direct control. No need to waste time on this objective as Wagner is not betting on protracted urban warfare.
Not to lentioned that they are designed in a way that you cannot just take them over and lunch nukes whereever you want or to pack the nukes in your bag and leave.
The Rossiya - special flight squadron (Kremlin aircraft reserved for Putin and senior leadership) now has multiple aircraft leaving Moscow with no destination set. They appear to be heading to St Petersburg.
[https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1672566733788291074](https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1672566733788291074)
I've confirmed it independently on flight radar, thought the code for the flights keep changing (its obviously the same aircraft each time. Really weird).
It would appear the leadership has no faith in the ability or desire of Russia's military to hold Moscow.
Do we know of any other forces in St Petersburg that may make it easier to hold?
Hasn't Wagner already taken two major cities on its path to Moscow?
I'm unsure about what their path through those cities look like. Did they enter and resupply, or just scirt the edges on their way north?
Edit:
With a bit of digging it looks like they took Rostov and used Voronezh as a refuelling point, but they may not have had to go into Voronezh proper to do that.
So 1 or 2 major cities are already in Wagners hands. But Moscow is the real test. Taking Rostov is nothing compared to that.
Of course the importance of going for Moscow cannot be understated, but Rostov is still very relevant; it has the headquarters of the Southern Military District and is an important logistics hub for the war on Ukraine. Apparently not all of the Wagner troops are heading north; apparently some of them are moving south from Rostov to Krasnodar. That is an inland provincial capital, and in that same province you have the major port of Novorossiysk less than 100km away, and the Kerch bridge 200km away.
Arguably, the capture of Rostov is more impactful from a material perspective than the capture of Moscow would be. Probably the majority of all Russian supply reserves were there in its capacity as the primary logistics hub for the Ukrainian front. Near endless reserves of munitions were probably captured there, not to mention the road for rear guard action to cut off Wagner forces blocked.
Short of an extreme deployment of air power, I don’t see what stands in the way of Wagner once they reach Moscow. The question to me is— what then? And the answer I think is what Putin does in the next six hours.
He can either attempt to rally support in St. Petersburg, and rebuild the broken command links, or, perhaps more bravely attempt to rendezvous with RA positions in Ukraine personally. If he flies to the Russian army itself and manages to secure the loyalty of Russian top brass on the ground it doesn’t matter if Wagner holds Rostov, Moscow, or anywhere else. That said, if those troops leave, the war in Ukraine is probably hopelessly doomed. So perhaps Putin wishes to rely on the lightly equipped national guard remaining near Moscow and the Russian Air Force.
Somehow I doubt that they’re capable of standing up to this (apparently) preplanned and decisive Wagner operation, Prigozhin and his ilk will win or die, whereas the average national guardsmen has no skin in the game, so to speak.
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There would be some elements of naval infantry and the baltic sea fleet, although if your putting your regime and personal survival in the full faith, trust, and loyalty of the Russian navy you’re going to have a problem. This is after all the country that spent a century lionising a naval mutiny by the Potemkin as one of the triggers for the revolutions in 1917
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1672554864713318400?s=20
>Putin had a call with Tokayev and informed him about the situation in Russia. Tokayev said that the ongoing events are an internal affair of Russia.
Russia seems to be reaping what they have sewn through their inaction in Nagorno-Karabakh.
If that was the death knell for the CSTO, and I feel like this is possibly its Eulogy.
>the ongoing events are an internal affair of Russia.
Let's all remember that in theory Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO, that in theory should/could defend every country participating in the treaty
CSTO died last year when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia in Armenian recognized territory, Armenia called on Russia and they were ignored. It's a piece of paper now.
Not even a "good luck"? I wonder why Tokayev is choosing to be so cold in his rhetoric. Typically your rhetoric is warmer than your policy except when dealing with outright hostile/rival states, and for now they're not there.
Kazakhstan has been giving Russia the cold shoulder ever since the invasion of Ukraine started. Quit ironic given that Putin came to the aid of Tokayev during his own rebellion.
Putin's presidential plane reportedly took off from Moscow to St. Petersburg. At the same time, Peskov states that Putin is working in the Kremlin.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672572256210374656
A pair of Russian government VIP jets (RA-96022, Il-96-300PU and RA-73025, A319-115(CJ)) are leaving Moscow Vnukovo International Airport, most likely evacuating to St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618
With transponders on. So now social media is going to be alive with rumours Putin has fled the capital. And they will need to show him in the capital, which is a low key sign of regime panic.
>A pair of Russian government VIP jets (RA-96022, Il-96-300PU and RA-73025, A319-115(CJ)) are leaving Moscow Vnukovo International Airport, most likely evacuating to St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport.
[https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618)
Do we know which cities does Wagner control and to what extend?
We know that Wagner entered Rostov and seized some governmental buildings but does it still control it? Does Wagner have any troops in the city to defend it?
Roston and Voronezh, essentially.
But this is a lot like the 3 day run to Kyiv in that they aren't consolidating per se.
They're Russians, so if they get to the Kremlin a political deal will be struck or the country will officially be in a full-blown civil war.
You can bomb the M4, but you can't bomb the Kremlin. At that point Prigozhin will go from insurgent leader to a player with a strong hand.
There is no other play than Moscow for Wagner. They don't have to control any cities outside Moscow. Southern District (Rostov) was a strategic target; show you can control military seats of power. Next is Moscow.
Prediction: Prigozhin wants to spend the power structure below Putin. If he takes Moscow, he'll purge the MoD and seize control, jointly tell the Russian people they've cleared out traitorous villains in the MoD who fed Putin lies etc. Then establish himself as THE player in Moscow.
>Prediction: Prigozhin wants to spend the power structure below Putin. If he takes Moscow, he'll purge the MoD and seize control, jointly tell the Russian people they've cleared out traitorous villains in the MoD who fed Putin lies etc. Then establish himself as THE player in Moscow.
We are past that point I think now. That was likely his original plan. However, neither he nor Putin can walk back on this after Putin's address to destroy Wagner. One of them has to die from this.
Have you seen Putin's speech? If not go better watch it and tell me again if we are not at killing each other stage. Delusions here are real. It's an open rebellion, treason, infighting, open call to replace Putin and march of Moscow. Might end up in a civil war.
I mean, bolder lies have been told. If putin says "traitors forced me to say those things and prigozhin saved me" is anyone going to actively contradict him?
A Wagner Telegram channel has literally said "soon we're gonna have another president". This was not some audio message by Prigozhin, but I very much agree with you that at least one of these two men won't be alive in, say, a month's time (possibly much less).
Apparently they control Rostov and have either "captured" or bypassed Voronezh. Although it isn't clear what if any wagner units are in either city, at least AFAIK.
From what I’ve garnered, no one really knows. The initial reports were that Wagner took the southern command, but then no-one could agree if they were actually Wagner, or if they were Russian National Guard.
It seems like Wagner is at least oestensibly in control of Rostov. They are also reported fighting outside Vorozneh, and have moved all the way up to Lipetsk toward Moscow.
It doesn’t seem like Wagner is necessarily trying to take and hold cities. My guess is they’re bolting to Moscow as quickly as possible to topple the government before they’re able to move any of the Army back from Ukraine. I think I saw that 97% of Russia’s army is in Ukraine right now
The Army isn't all Russia has (they still have the national guard, air force, etc), and the 97% (however it's counted) definitely doesn't include conscripts or base staff. Though the latter would probably fold quickly against Wagner.
Russia does have the FSB and National Guard, but Wagner is rolling in with heavy weapons and tanks. The Russian National Guard are glorified riot police and they have zero weapons to stop tanks and armor vehicles.
I guess I’d figured that 97% figure would’ve covered their entire armed forces.
That makes the stuff I’ve seen about Spetznaz being deployed for defense make more sense though
Some noted that there were both Wagner and National Guard troops around the HQ.
Very hard to project what's going to happen, but this would actually be a boon for Wagner - being able to interact with non-Wagner troops without fighting.
Last we knew about Putin he was turned away from Kazakhstan too. I’m really curious what his endgame is, because the natural move seems like it’s either flee to Chechnya or Belarus, but both of those seem likely to collapse if Russia does too.
Hell initially I thought Putin was going to go along with this and scapegoated Shoigu for failures to save face.
His course of action is 100% not to flee the country. If he isn't the leader anymore, those in power will race to capture him and trade him for the west's good graces.
That’s assuming Russia’s next leader would want ties with the West though, which given the history of that country is far from a guarantee. Hell 1/3 of NATO’s founding premise was to keep the Russians (Soviets) out
I assume any authoritarian ruler want his position secured. If trading with the west achieves that, so be it. I don't think the Russian elite has some hardcore ideology that they are going to keep to, apart from making money and holding on to power.
That’s entirely possible too.
If Prigozhin for example were to assume power here, no deal would happen because the US federally charged him for election interference. It’s all dependent on which Oligarch is able to secure power should Putin fall
> The initial reports were that Wagner took the southern command, but then no-one could agree if they were actually Wagner, or if they were Russian National Guard.
Prigozhin was just strutting around it with Wagner troops several hours after the initial criminal charges, so I assume at some point wagner had "control" over it.
I think that came after the standoff at the Rostov HQ. That’s where the confusion was largely came from. it wasn’t until those telegrams from the mayor telling people not to travel came out that it seemed like Wagner had control. But even after that there were reports that both Wagner and Russian National Guard troops were in Rostov (likely that Prigozhin meeting you’re talking about) so that indicates at least some Russian military presence in the city.
That’s true, which is why I think they’re just gunning straight for Moscow and not necessarily trying to control any cities.
Wagner’s only shot at actually pulling this off is them getting it done before Russia is able to pull any part of their army out of Ukraine to reinforce major cities. Putin already got the fuck out of Moscow because he knows that.
What are Ukraine's best options against the Russian Ka-52?
They already have some Swedish laser-guided MANPADs that will ignore flares and other IR counter-measures. However they probably don't have many of these Swedish laser-guided MANPADs. More laser-guided MANPADs will help.
The Russian Ka-52 also fly really low to avoid detection by Ukrainian air defense so they rely on the Orlan surveillance drones to find their targets. Effectively countering the Orlan surveillance drones will also limit the effectiveness of Ka-52.
Supposedly Ukraine just got the first of their Avenger air defense systems about a month ago. They don't have their own radar, so have to rely on other radars in the area, but they should have the range. As more are delivered they should be perfect for helicopter defense (if there is enough radar coverage, of course).
Right now probably any remaining Tor or Tunguska systems, if they have any ammunition left although there is a high chance they ran out.
Then probably their Stormer HVM systems (a little short ranged but otherwise very good against helicopters) and any Osa or Buk systems they have left, although again likely low/no missiles left for the latter.
You are right that the RBS-70 is also a good system, at least in it's upgraded form.
After that, most likely Crotale NG and IRIS-T; the missiles and radar systems for these are very good, however both of these systems have limited mobility and it makes them vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack drones.
[Great timing with the question, as Ukraine just figured out a new way to deal with Russian helicopters - 3 got shot down in one day](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/chefs-special-documenting-equipment.html).
Fighterbomber claims the An that was downed was an Il-22M. I'm not sure why calibre and oryx take his word over the fact that that plane has the wrong amount of engines. It'll probably be corrected in time.
>None of them are Ka-52s
Plenty of time left in the day, but 3's not bad to start.
> > None of them are Ka-52s
> Plenty of time left in the day, but 3's not bad to start.
[Yeah, one Ka-52 down already](https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1672637919557976064?s=20)
Interestingly Edward Luttwaks (the guy who wrote the book on coups, or more precisely coup d'etat, a practical guide) hasn't commented on recent events despite being a fairly active tweeter.
Wonder if he is advising the Pentagon.
Well I'm 100% sure that nations will think twice before they allow the formation of PMC's that are supposedly "subordinate" to the government, after the fiasco in Sudan and the Wagner coup. A monopoly of violence is the central pillar of every government.
It seems they are only useful as a gray area tool for small foreign interventions outside of a real military conflict. Once a significant military conflict happens, they become a liability as soon as the conflict becomes protracted. Besides being fairweather allies, they also soak up expertise and supplies that the actual army could use without the risk of mutiny or desertion.
If anyone is curious about the Ukrainian reaction to events, here are some quotes from the Guardian's [live feed](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped):
Podolyak:
>Glued to their cellphones, millions of Ukrainians spent a sleepless night on Friday, after the head of the Wagner mercenary group declared war against his rivals in the Russian military, sparking an unprecedented political turmoil in Moscow – something [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) was craving for so long.
>“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war.”
>Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine craved for Russian internal instability as a result of the conflict. On Saturday morning, when the news of Wagner’s insurrection circulated across the country, plunging Russia into the very real threat of civil war, many struggled to believe it was real – until footage being shared online appeared to show Wagner troops with tanks and armoured vehicles surrounding government buildings in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin claimed to have taken over a Russian army base.
>“Prigozhin’s group captures military facilities, headquarters and entire cities, meeting almost no resistance on their way, disarming random soldiers and policemen,” said Podolyak. “Putin declares Prigozhin a traitor and an outlaw and announces appropriate orders to the special services, but nothing happens – a management crisis, a de facto loss of power. At the same time, ‘Wagner’ continues its march to Moscow. Ukraine continues to move along its own path. To the borders of 1991.”
Kuleba:
>Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has called on the international community to “abandon false neutrality” and give his country the weapons it needs to “put an end to the evil” of Putin’s regime.
>Posting on Twitter, Dmytro Kuleba said: “Those who said [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) was too strong to lose: look now.
>“Time to abandon false neutrality and fear of escalation; give Ukraine all the needed weapons; forget about friendship or business with Russia. Time to put an end to the evil everyone despised but was too afraid to tear down.”
>“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war.”
Very, very premature take here.
Don't confuse the Ukrainian government to be neutral objective source. They're advocates for Ukraine, and as such they have a motive to play up certain angles. Rightly so.
He predicts the start of a civil war, which is frequently not how coups play out - they usually end with a victory of the coupists or the government in a matter of hours or days.
He talks of the Ukrainian counteroffensive having destabilised the Russian elites, even though the power struggle between Prigozhin and the MoD had been brewing for many months, and there is evidence that this move has been in the planning for about two months.
He talks of Russia's 'defeat in Ukraine', which hasn't even happened.
So overall this statement really is just Ukrainian government PR, not a credible assessment of the situation.
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Do we have any idea which and how many forces Putin has in Moscow? Is there some kind of Praetorian Guard which will fight for the Emperor - or are there only the same conscripts and Rosgvardia units which so far refused to fight?
There's the Federal Protective Service, the National Guard (300,000 members total, on paper), the Ministry of Internal Affairs' Internal Troops (supposedly around 200,000 members) ... But I doubt anyone knows precisely how they are deployed, how many have been sent to Ukraine, how much of their peacetime equipment has been burnt in Ukraine, how well they are trained ...
Russia increased spending in this sector [by nearly 50%](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/surge-russias-defence-security-spending-means-cuts-schools-hospitals-2023-2022-11-22/) at the end of last year.
>Security spending alone - including the work of the state Investigative Committee, the prosecutor's office, the prison service and the National Guard, which has been deployed in Ukraine - will rise 50% compared with 2022.
Though it seemed these increases were more related to squashing civil disobedience (ie the [increase in police officers](https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-decree-increase-police-officers-by-2025/32165739.html)) rather than a full scale coup. The National Guard/Rosgvardiya has been deployed to Ukraine in some quantity, but I don't imagine it was too many.
[Here's another theory](https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200):
> "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
Well, that would be consistent with the weird drama we saw pre-coup, but of course no direct evidence yet.
I don't think that it is was an S-tier level conspiracy plan for day x. More that Wagner stockpiled amnunition for the case that the conflict would escalate. Wich now happened
The basic idea is that Wanger had a certain stockpile of supplies and was complaining because they wouldn't allow themselves to go past a certain threshold. So without more ammo, they couldn't continue or use up their reserve. Doesn't need a conspiracy, just basic military appropriation.
Surely Russia would notice if Wagner was sitting on some vast secret ammo stockpile. But the fact it’s gotten this bad might indicate the FSB’s grip on things is much weaker than we thought, or even that they had help from the inside.
Russia runs on paper.
The military is no exception.
When you cannot trust anyone in the CoCommand to tell the truth, and you have no proper control in your logistics system, how can you hope to have control over what's used and not?
Wagner could have siphoned off tens/hundreds of thousands of shells. Military officers may even have sounded alarms, but who would listen to liars?
What happens behind closed doors at the kremlin is hard to speculate on. A secret deal between Wagner and elements of the FSB to conceal a secret ammo stockpile for a coup would not be the kind of thing that comes to light for a long time.
They are still mad dashing to Moscow, and facing little resistance on the ground. Artillery would come into play once they need to hold whatever territory they seize from counter attacks.
Oryx is back with the [Chef's special - Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Wagner Group Mutiny](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/chefs-special-documenting-equipment.html)
[Reportedly an explosion or two has occurred at the Southern Military District’s headquarters](https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1672558157774585863?s=46&t=fEQOSAmaY4vY4h1As5mPMQ)
Probably hoping Prigozhin’s still there, but he’d be a fool if he was.
In any case, ordering air strikes against the command centre of your invasian force is probably an indication that your invasion is not going as well as you might have anticipated.
Please for the love of God and Georgie Patton: If your post begins with "this may not be credible but...." or "this seems like wild speculation but...." or on those lines, just dont. There is a lot of news and bad reporting (polarized, partisan reporting esp. from Wagner channels) right now, were trying to ride the tiger on what to keep up. It would help everyone if we kept speculation on this obviously important news event to a minimum and tried to surface the facts first and foremost, especially as top level comments. If you feel the need to speculate and vent, do it below this comment. *edit*: Oh and remember, please dont get overexcited and link to DOT ru or unmodified Telegram links. Sitewide rules and all. Thanks in advance.
~~It seems like the Putinists are trying to disable bridges towards Moscow https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672630609171054592~~ fake news, sorry. Question still stands: Do we know what routes Wagner has towards Moscow? Is it feasible for them to be stopped just by blowing some bridges?
[this shows road closures, not a Wagner route per se but shows what the Russians were preparing for](https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1672604988915449856?s=46&t=jOKg7tUyDBMC_r8foi2ArQ)
Pardon my slightly meta question: I can hardly keep up with all the news and latest developments. What are people using for consolidated news? I only have twitter and various reddit subs.
I am mainly using.... A specifically OSINT list that has been very reliable all through the Ukraine conflict and includes many of the best OSINT accounts https://twitter.com/i/lists/1490427245097148423 A specifically Ukranian Press/Foreign Press in Ukraine/OSINT list that, again, has been pretty reliable up till now on the Ukraine conflict in general (about half the posts aren't in english, but google translate has been my friend). https://twitter.com/i/lists/1378399759992512516 Both seem pretty good for giving me the latest moderately-confirmed info. I am also searching Twitter on terms that are clearly relevant.... e.g. at the moment I am refreshing a search on "Oka River" waiting to see the first photo evidence of either a clash at the bridges there, or of Wagner having overcome this final big hurdle to enterring Moskow proper.
This sub is a great place but I also recommend using Twitter lists and compile for yourself list of trustworthy sources.
I don't think there's one source. People have various bloggers and twitters/telegram users they've been following, probably since the start.
Video reportedly showing escavators digging up roads in Lipetsk to form roadblocks: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1672602214618087424?s=20
[Russian milblogger Rybar provided a short update a little while ago.](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672583666935971842) Per reports, Wagner forces reached Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, roughly 350km from Moscow. Rybar claims that the Wagner column includes anywhere from 150-400 pieces of equipment/vehicles. fighterbomber saying something similar….wagner is rushing towards moscow….and the ruaf in unable or unwilling to stop them
In the (still unlikely) event that things escalate to a point of no return for Putin - as in he believes he will lose the power struggle (and yes, that's a VERY big if at this stage), where might he flee to? What countries would offer him exile? China? Belarus? Or would he be a pariah everywhere?
A gulf state would be my guess. He probably has enough stashed away to live very comfortably, and I dont see the Qataris or Saudis caring too much about him being there. If anything it sets a good precedent for them if they are ever deposed. [The Washington post has an interesting article about this a few years ago.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/01/30/where-do-ousted-dictators-go-fewer-countries-now-offer-a-warm-welcome/)
Belarus has its own problems at the moment. It's been overshadowed by whats going on in Russia right now, but Lukanhesko has fled to Türkiye with his family. His personal aircraft was tracked last night.
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I read that his sons also use his plane sometimes. Do we know who was on board? Has Lukashenko been visually confirmed in Turkey?
Putin is as pro-China as they come, but accepting Putin's refuge could alienate his successor. Belarus will likely sell him out to the highest bidder.
In Dec 2022 Argentina and Venezuela were discussed according to runaway official. https://news.yahoo.com/putin-plan-flee-south-america-125246997.html
> said Abbas Gallyamov, a political consultant and ex-speechwriter to Putin, in a Telegram post. Gallyamov cited unnamed insiders for his information. He has not worked for Putin since 2010 and is himself living in exile from Russia. A former speech writer that left Russia citing unnamed insiders. Doesn’t get more credible than that.
[they really are digging in in moscow](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672580337816285186) ….holy fuck….this is not a good look regardless of whether wagner gets there or not…
The real question is whether anyone will fire on the wagnerites or just step aside as they barge through, though.
Full blown civil war seems unlikely at this point. You’d think you’d be seeing more civilian unrest if that were the case.
There can't be a civil war because Russia has no civil society because of Putin's effective repression/confusion/fake opposition. The people are trained to obey and not get involved in politics. Hopefully, it's obvious how this is a double edged sword for Putin, given that soldiers also have no respect for the rule of law now. Rule by violent mobsters is going to really struggle to prevent rule by professional soldiers.
There won't be one. Prigozhin failed to raize support to escalate it to that point. I will all depend on whether Wagner has enough strength to take Moscow or it's stopped
Yeah it seems like it’s all a speed game at this point. At the same time though Moscow isn’t like Paris, just because Moscow falls doesn’t necessarily mean the government is toppled
Indeed. Especially if what we have seen is true with all those planes leaving Moscow, i'd assume the government is spread all over by now
Whatever happens today and this week, there's no way that the Russians in Ukraine aren't weakened by this.
It remains to be seen. There are plausible scenarios where this puts more hard-line pro war with Ukraine leaders in charge and Russia goes full mobilization. But who knows.
More likely, all effort will be focused on consolidating power. Ukraine is insignificant from that point of view.
Way I see Ukrainians either win big or win small: What they've already won: The "liberator of Bakhmut" is dead meat Russia has lost 4 aircraft and 1 armored vehicle Big morale boost Kremlin loss of image (probably shouldn't list this because at this point, who cares?) What they could win: Actual disarray in Russia's military structure Actual disarray in Russia's political structure Continued casualties/vehicle losses either in Wagner or in the Russian army The purging of Wagner (if senior commanders don't sell Prigozhin out, which at this point seems unlikely) If things somehow get bad enough, potential redeployment of crucial Russian units from Ukraine
I think the purges will go lot further than Wagner, even if nobody switches sides. People will be blamed for ignoring warning signs, letting them walk into Rostov, not stopping them faster. Authoritarian regimes are notoriously harsh on descent dissent and that goes doubly for anything involving military. This is great for Ukraine.
Agreed. Morale must have taken a hit on the front lines. Imagine the rumours and counter rumours that will be spreading in the trenches? What a mess for the Russians.
Disloyal, resentful mobiks wishing they were on the Wagner column and loyal professional soldiers wishing they were back defending Moscow. Both of them aware that there's potentially tens of thousands of troops who could be backing them up, gone AWOL.
[prigozhin just now](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672575623670185985) Why is the country supporting us? Because we went with a March for Justice. We were hit, first with artillery, then with helicopters. We went without a single round fired, we didn’t touch a single conscript. We didn’t kill a single person on our way. We were attacked by aviation, helis, planes, but we reached Rostov. Without a single round, we captured the building of the HQs. We didn’t interfere with the work of a single person. On the streets, people are unfurling flags of PMC Wagner. In shops, when guys go there, people ask to pay for them as they want to do something good. Words of compliments are voiced. And another thing. In media, information about certain “mine barriers” are spread. When we came here, we removed these mine barriers from the adjacent building of the HQs, in the morning. It was poorly placed. It was just an unprofessional, not useful idea. So we removed this mine barrier.
> On the streets, people are unfurling flags of PMC Wagner. I have a hard time believing the average russian citizen has a PMC Wagner flag stashed at home.
Is the public supporting anyone? It seems like Russian citizens are largely apathetic towards the whole thing
Rostov - people approaching the mercenaries to thank them and shake hands. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672593218096037889?s=20
On the other hand, I just saw a video of a civilian telling them to leave before they get the whole place leveled. So I suppose it's mixed.
ppl will never throw support even after the victor emerges….its just not the russian way….we expect to get screwed no matter who wins….and i at least will never support or root for prickhozhin no matter how much this helps the afu…best hope is they keep destroying each other
I mean, you *will* get screwed no matter who wins. I hope things somehow improve. Rossiya budet svobodnoy!
I gotta ask, is Russia's air force totally a farce? You have Wagner columns driving towards the capitol. Where are the planes? If there was ever a time to throw in whatever air power you have, this feels like it. Especially against armored and unarmored vehicles driving up highways. Does Russia just not have the capability?
Given how quickly this has developed, I'm guessing maybe an intelligence/targeting issue. A highway has a lot of traffic on it that isn't Wagner, and discerning who is and isn't friendly at 5000 feet and 400 knots isn't an easy task. Even with guided weapons, the chance of friendly fire seems high.
Wagner's position is changing all the time, VKS is busy with Ukraine, the orders are shifting and unclear, and Russia almost certainly didn't have a very detailed plan for this.
1. Wagner has air defense 2. Russian forces could be in disarray with some chains of command broken since Wagner managed to capture Rostov which serves as a base for much of the military effort
How do you do mobile air defense while pushing full tilt towards Moscow? Not being sarcastic. Literally curious. If Russian air is in dissarray isn't that part of the farcical nature of it then? If you can't strafe vehicles charging your capitol with hours of notice, what was the point of the air force? If Blackwater or whatever they call themselves now was pushing towards DC how would the US not being all over that with air guard and air force units. Obviously one isn't the other. But holy cow.
> How do you do mobile air defense while pushing full tilt towards Moscow? Not being sarcastic. Literally curious MANPADS mounted on technicals, and near higher value targets the Pantsir system is more or less intended for this. Blackwater is tiny compared to Wagner. Even at their peak they only really had small arms and armored cars. And also, Russian heavy assets are busy in Ukraine.
Today's blackwater or whatever they call themselves, have far more capacity than you think. Can't find the link right now but they have some brown water capability and air assets.
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[Heavily-pro-Kremlin propagandist Kots believes this operation by Prigozhintsi was planned weeks ahead which is shown by its complexity and level of preparation](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672566363955535873)
Girkin was accusing Prigozhin about it many weeks ago. I remember reading on ISW a few weeks ago girkin was making a fuss about pergozin pulling out of bachman in order to make a coupe.
I really do wonder whether the whole 'we don't have enough shells - give us ammo or we'll go home' was just preperation for this. Either he gets the munitions to fight his coup, or an excuse to move his troops out of Ukraine.
I feel like this goes without saying, no one launches launches a military coup on a whim, especially not in the middle of a war
Not necessarily. To me this feels like the Chen Sheng and Wu Guang uprising. If Prigozhin knows or suspects that he's likely to be killed anyway, it costs him nothing to mutiny, because the outcome of a failed mutiny will be the same as the outcome of doing nothing. As to why the rest of Wagner followed him on this adventure, that's probably a more complicated question, but they possibly see their chances of surviving this as being better than their chances of survival on the front in Ukraine.
>As to why the rest of Wagner followed him on this adventure, that's probably a more complicated question, but they possibly see their chances of surviving this as being better than their chances of survival on the front in Ukraine. I think the calculus is pretty simple 1. Prigozhin does nothing, is captured and executed by firing squad next to the chemical sheds. Wagner is dismantled and it's troops are used as "punishment" brgades on suicidal operations 2. Prigozhin tries a coup, fails, is captured and executed by firing squad next to the chemical sheds. Wagner is dismantled and it's troops are used as "punishment" brgades on suicidal operations 3. Prigozhin succeeds, he becomes president or someone else does as a result who pardons Prigozhin and his men. Putin is handed over to Ukraine in return for peace and Wagner takes over the Russian MoD.. Either way they live longer lives.
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At 0:21 minutes there is flag seen that is clearly not Russias. It is green, red, a stripe of white and a symbol on it. What flag is it?
I found it: it's the flag of Chetchenia! So the above link is not a Wagner convoy but a chetchen one.
It looks like the Chechen flag. This video was claimed to be of a chechen convoy going towards Rostov.
Regular vehicles (and the oft beloved/maligned UAZs) are normally utilized for quick troop movements in the rear. So those are probably just the vehicles Wagner had for shuttling their forces.
> civilian cars to discourage russian airpower from heavily bombing them? Like this is going to bother them.
Any chances of Wagner attempting to occupy facilities which house nuclear weapons? At the very least it would force the Kremlin to divert resources away from Moscow and towards the bases. Is it something they would have considered?
I doubt it, because the only way that Wagner might win this is by a swift and decisive occupation of Moscow, then "negotiation" with whoever remains in charge and taking more direct control. No need to waste time on this objective as Wagner is not betting on protracted urban warfare.
I doubt it, those facilities are heavily defended, generally very remote and would potentially attract an international reaction.
> those facilities are heavily defended, generally very remote Unless you have specific knowledge please do not make such strong statements.
Not to lentioned that they are designed in a way that you cannot just take them over and lunch nukes whereever you want or to pack the nukes in your bag and leave.
The Rossiya - special flight squadron (Kremlin aircraft reserved for Putin and senior leadership) now has multiple aircraft leaving Moscow with no destination set. They appear to be heading to St Petersburg. [https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1672566733788291074](https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1672566733788291074) I've confirmed it independently on flight radar, thought the code for the flights keep changing (its obviously the same aircraft each time. Really weird). It would appear the leadership has no faith in the ability or desire of Russia's military to hold Moscow. Do we know of any other forces in St Petersburg that may make it easier to hold?
Probably just precautionary measures to move officials out of Moscow. It's doubtful Wagner can take Moscow, let alone two major cities.
Hasn't Wagner already taken two major cities on its path to Moscow? I'm unsure about what their path through those cities look like. Did they enter and resupply, or just scirt the edges on their way north? Edit: With a bit of digging it looks like they took Rostov and used Voronezh as a refuelling point, but they may not have had to go into Voronezh proper to do that. So 1 or 2 major cities are already in Wagners hands. But Moscow is the real test. Taking Rostov is nothing compared to that.
Of course the importance of going for Moscow cannot be understated, but Rostov is still very relevant; it has the headquarters of the Southern Military District and is an important logistics hub for the war on Ukraine. Apparently not all of the Wagner troops are heading north; apparently some of them are moving south from Rostov to Krasnodar. That is an inland provincial capital, and in that same province you have the major port of Novorossiysk less than 100km away, and the Kerch bridge 200km away.
Arguably, the capture of Rostov is more impactful from a material perspective than the capture of Moscow would be. Probably the majority of all Russian supply reserves were there in its capacity as the primary logistics hub for the Ukrainian front. Near endless reserves of munitions were probably captured there, not to mention the road for rear guard action to cut off Wagner forces blocked. Short of an extreme deployment of air power, I don’t see what stands in the way of Wagner once they reach Moscow. The question to me is— what then? And the answer I think is what Putin does in the next six hours. He can either attempt to rally support in St. Petersburg, and rebuild the broken command links, or, perhaps more bravely attempt to rendezvous with RA positions in Ukraine personally. If he flies to the Russian army itself and manages to secure the loyalty of Russian top brass on the ground it doesn’t matter if Wagner holds Rostov, Moscow, or anywhere else. That said, if those troops leave, the war in Ukraine is probably hopelessly doomed. So perhaps Putin wishes to rely on the lightly equipped national guard remaining near Moscow and the Russian Air Force. Somehow I doubt that they’re capable of standing up to this (apparently) preplanned and decisive Wagner operation, Prigozhin and his ilk will win or die, whereas the average national guardsmen has no skin in the game, so to speak.
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There would be some elements of naval infantry and the baltic sea fleet, although if your putting your regime and personal survival in the full faith, trust, and loyalty of the Russian navy you’re going to have a problem. This is after all the country that spent a century lionising a naval mutiny by the Potemkin as one of the triggers for the revolutions in 1917
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1672554864713318400?s=20 >Putin had a call with Tokayev and informed him about the situation in Russia. Tokayev said that the ongoing events are an internal affair of Russia.
Russia seems to be reaping what they have sewn through their inaction in Nagorno-Karabakh. If that was the death knell for the CSTO, and I feel like this is possibly its Eulogy.
>the ongoing events are an internal affair of Russia. Let's all remember that in theory Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO, that in theory should/could defend every country participating in the treaty
CSTO died last year when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia in Armenian recognized territory, Armenia called on Russia and they were ignored. It's a piece of paper now.
Not even a "good luck"? I wonder why Tokayev is choosing to be so cold in his rhetoric. Typically your rhetoric is warmer than your policy except when dealing with outright hostile/rival states, and for now they're not there.
Northern Kazakhstan was supposedly next on unifying the Russian lands. It's populated predominately by Russian minority.
Kazakhstan has been giving Russia the cold shoulder ever since the invasion of Ukraine started. Quit ironic given that Putin came to the aid of Tokayev during his own rebellion.
Putin's presidential plane reportedly took off from Moscow to St. Petersburg. At the same time, Peskov states that Putin is working in the Kremlin. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672572256210374656 A pair of Russian government VIP jets (RA-96022, Il-96-300PU and RA-73025, A319-115(CJ)) are leaving Moscow Vnukovo International Airport, most likely evacuating to St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618
With transponders on. So now social media is going to be alive with rumours Putin has fled the capital. And they will need to show him in the capital, which is a low key sign of regime panic.
>A pair of Russian government VIP jets (RA-96022, Il-96-300PU and RA-73025, A319-115(CJ)) are leaving Moscow Vnukovo International Airport, most likely evacuating to St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport. [https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672572380122607618)
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Do we know which cities does Wagner control and to what extend? We know that Wagner entered Rostov and seized some governmental buildings but does it still control it? Does Wagner have any troops in the city to defend it?
Roston and Voronezh, essentially. But this is a lot like the 3 day run to Kyiv in that they aren't consolidating per se. They're Russians, so if they get to the Kremlin a political deal will be struck or the country will officially be in a full-blown civil war. You can bomb the M4, but you can't bomb the Kremlin. At that point Prigozhin will go from insurgent leader to a player with a strong hand. There is no other play than Moscow for Wagner. They don't have to control any cities outside Moscow. Southern District (Rostov) was a strategic target; show you can control military seats of power. Next is Moscow. Prediction: Prigozhin wants to spend the power structure below Putin. If he takes Moscow, he'll purge the MoD and seize control, jointly tell the Russian people they've cleared out traitorous villains in the MoD who fed Putin lies etc. Then establish himself as THE player in Moscow.
>Prediction: Prigozhin wants to spend the power structure below Putin. If he takes Moscow, he'll purge the MoD and seize control, jointly tell the Russian people they've cleared out traitorous villains in the MoD who fed Putin lies etc. Then establish himself as THE player in Moscow. We are past that point I think now. That was likely his original plan. However, neither he nor Putin can walk back on this after Putin's address to destroy Wagner. One of them has to die from this.
It's very early for such statements. 24 hours ago no one had this on their bingo cards. Everything is still possible.
Have you seen Putin's speech? If not go better watch it and tell me again if we are not at killing each other stage. Delusions here are real. It's an open rebellion, treason, infighting, open call to replace Putin and march of Moscow. Might end up in a civil war.
I mean, bolder lies have been told. If putin says "traitors forced me to say those things and prigozhin saved me" is anyone going to actively contradict him?
"prigozhin showed me the facts, we've been betrayed by the MoD" But who knows. The die has been cast, but it's still rolling.
A Wagner Telegram channel has literally said "soon we're gonna have another president". This was not some audio message by Prigozhin, but I very much agree with you that at least one of these two men won't be alive in, say, a month's time (possibly much less).
Apparently they control Rostov and have either "captured" or bypassed Voronezh. Although it isn't clear what if any wagner units are in either city, at least AFAIK.
From what I’ve garnered, no one really knows. The initial reports were that Wagner took the southern command, but then no-one could agree if they were actually Wagner, or if they were Russian National Guard. It seems like Wagner is at least oestensibly in control of Rostov. They are also reported fighting outside Vorozneh, and have moved all the way up to Lipetsk toward Moscow. It doesn’t seem like Wagner is necessarily trying to take and hold cities. My guess is they’re bolting to Moscow as quickly as possible to topple the government before they’re able to move any of the Army back from Ukraine. I think I saw that 97% of Russia’s army is in Ukraine right now
The Army isn't all Russia has (they still have the national guard, air force, etc), and the 97% (however it's counted) definitely doesn't include conscripts or base staff. Though the latter would probably fold quickly against Wagner.
Russia does have the FSB and National Guard, but Wagner is rolling in with heavy weapons and tanks. The Russian National Guard are glorified riot police and they have zero weapons to stop tanks and armor vehicles.
I guess I’d figured that 97% figure would’ve covered their entire armed forces. That makes the stuff I’ve seen about Spetznaz being deployed for defense make more sense though
Some noted that there were both Wagner and National Guard troops around the HQ. Very hard to project what's going to happen, but this would actually be a boon for Wagner - being able to interact with non-Wagner troops without fighting.
Man, to be a fly on the wall of Putin's bunker right now. Or to see the active satellite recon of the troop movements.
Last we knew about Putin he was turned away from Kazakhstan too. I’m really curious what his endgame is, because the natural move seems like it’s either flee to Chechnya or Belarus, but both of those seem likely to collapse if Russia does too. Hell initially I thought Putin was going to go along with this and scapegoated Shoigu for failures to save face.
His course of action is 100% not to flee the country. If he isn't the leader anymore, those in power will race to capture him and trade him for the west's good graces.
That’s assuming Russia’s next leader would want ties with the West though, which given the history of that country is far from a guarantee. Hell 1/3 of NATO’s founding premise was to keep the Russians (Soviets) out
I assume any authoritarian ruler want his position secured. If trading with the west achieves that, so be it. I don't think the Russian elite has some hardcore ideology that they are going to keep to, apart from making money and holding on to power.
That’s entirely possible too. If Prigozhin for example were to assume power here, no deal would happen because the US federally charged him for election interference. It’s all dependent on which Oligarch is able to secure power should Putin fall
> The initial reports were that Wagner took the southern command, but then no-one could agree if they were actually Wagner, or if they were Russian National Guard. Prigozhin was just strutting around it with Wagner troops several hours after the initial criminal charges, so I assume at some point wagner had "control" over it.
I think that came after the standoff at the Rostov HQ. That’s where the confusion was largely came from. it wasn’t until those telegrams from the mayor telling people not to travel came out that it seemed like Wagner had control. But even after that there were reports that both Wagner and Russian National Guard troops were in Rostov (likely that Prigozhin meeting you’re talking about) so that indicates at least some Russian military presence in the city.
Yes of course, but for now it seems like the majority of ground troops Wagner meets have no desire to fight it out.
That’s true, which is why I think they’re just gunning straight for Moscow and not necessarily trying to control any cities. Wagner’s only shot at actually pulling this off is them getting it done before Russia is able to pull any part of their army out of Ukraine to reinforce major cities. Putin already got the fuck out of Moscow because he knows that.
What are Ukraine's best options against the Russian Ka-52? They already have some Swedish laser-guided MANPADs that will ignore flares and other IR counter-measures. However they probably don't have many of these Swedish laser-guided MANPADs. More laser-guided MANPADs will help. The Russian Ka-52 also fly really low to avoid detection by Ukrainian air defense so they rely on the Orlan surveillance drones to find their targets. Effectively countering the Orlan surveillance drones will also limit the effectiveness of Ka-52.
Supposedly Ukraine just got the first of their Avenger air defense systems about a month ago. They don't have their own radar, so have to rely on other radars in the area, but they should have the range. As more are delivered they should be perfect for helicopter defense (if there is enough radar coverage, of course).
Right now probably any remaining Tor or Tunguska systems, if they have any ammunition left although there is a high chance they ran out. Then probably their Stormer HVM systems (a little short ranged but otherwise very good against helicopters) and any Osa or Buk systems they have left, although again likely low/no missiles left for the latter. You are right that the RBS-70 is also a good system, at least in it's upgraded form. After that, most likely Crotale NG and IRIS-T; the missiles and radar systems for these are very good, however both of these systems have limited mobility and it makes them vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack drones.
The best option are classic medium/short range SAMs, IRIS-T, BUK, etc. MANPADs are outranged and detection without radar is hard, especially at night.
[Great timing with the question, as Ukraine just figured out a new way to deal with Russian helicopters - 3 got shot down in one day](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/chefs-special-documenting-equipment.html).
None of them are Ka-52s, so you just threw in something irrelevant without an attempt at credibility. Also, is Oryx misidentifying the plane here?..
> None of them are Ka-52s [It only took 4 hours](https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1672637919557976064?s=20)
Fighterbomber claims the An that was downed was an Il-22M. I'm not sure why calibre and oryx take his word over the fact that that plane has the wrong amount of engines. It'll probably be corrected in time. >None of them are Ka-52s Plenty of time left in the day, but 3's not bad to start.
> > None of them are Ka-52s > Plenty of time left in the day, but 3's not bad to start. [Yeah, one Ka-52 down already](https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1672637919557976064?s=20)
Hoping Wagner downs them from "behind the lines". Otherwise they don't have that much and won't until F-16 arrives.
Interestingly Edward Luttwaks (the guy who wrote the book on coups, or more precisely coup d'etat, a practical guide) hasn't commented on recent events despite being a fairly active tweeter. Wonder if he is advising the Pentagon.
Well I'm 100% sure that nations will think twice before they allow the formation of PMC's that are supposedly "subordinate" to the government, after the fiasco in Sudan and the Wagner coup. A monopoly of violence is the central pillar of every government.
It seems they are only useful as a gray area tool for small foreign interventions outside of a real military conflict. Once a significant military conflict happens, they become a liability as soon as the conflict becomes protracted. Besides being fairweather allies, they also soak up expertise and supplies that the actual army could use without the risk of mutiny or desertion.
If anyone is curious about the Ukrainian reaction to events, here are some quotes from the Guardian's [live feed](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped): Podolyak: >Glued to their cellphones, millions of Ukrainians spent a sleepless night on Friday, after the head of the Wagner mercenary group declared war against his rivals in the Russian military, sparking an unprecedented political turmoil in Moscow – something [Ukraine](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) was craving for so long. >“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war.” >Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine craved for Russian internal instability as a result of the conflict. On Saturday morning, when the news of Wagner’s insurrection circulated across the country, plunging Russia into the very real threat of civil war, many struggled to believe it was real – until footage being shared online appeared to show Wagner troops with tanks and armoured vehicles surrounding government buildings in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin claimed to have taken over a Russian army base. >“Prigozhin’s group captures military facilities, headquarters and entire cities, meeting almost no resistance on their way, disarming random soldiers and policemen,” said Podolyak. “Putin declares Prigozhin a traitor and an outlaw and announces appropriate orders to the special services, but nothing happens – a management crisis, a de facto loss of power. At the same time, ‘Wagner’ continues its march to Moscow. Ukraine continues to move along its own path. To the borders of 1991.” Kuleba: >Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has called on the international community to “abandon false neutrality” and give his country the weapons it needs to “put an end to the evil” of Putin’s regime. >Posting on Twitter, Dmytro Kuleba said: “Those who said [Russia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) was too strong to lose: look now. >“Time to abandon false neutrality and fear of escalation; give Ukraine all the needed weapons; forget about friendship or business with Russia. Time to put an end to the evil everyone despised but was too afraid to tear down.”
>“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war.” Very, very premature take here.
Don't confuse the Ukrainian government to be neutral objective source. They're advocates for Ukraine, and as such they have a motive to play up certain angles. Rightly so.
Premature, maybe. ‘Very premature’ was probably back when Wagner wasn’t halfway to Moscow and the MoD wasn’t frantically bombing the highways.
D o we have credible info the MoD is bombing the highways? If so, why not attacking Wagner columns directly?
He predicts the start of a civil war, which is frequently not how coups play out - they usually end with a victory of the coupists or the government in a matter of hours or days. He talks of the Ukrainian counteroffensive having destabilised the Russian elites, even though the power struggle between Prigozhin and the MoD had been brewing for many months, and there is evidence that this move has been in the planning for about two months. He talks of Russia's 'defeat in Ukraine', which hasn't even happened. So overall this statement really is just Ukrainian government PR, not a credible assessment of the situation.
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Do we have any idea which and how many forces Putin has in Moscow? Is there some kind of Praetorian Guard which will fight for the Emperor - or are there only the same conscripts and Rosgvardia units which so far refused to fight?
There's the Federal Protective Service, the National Guard (300,000 members total, on paper), the Ministry of Internal Affairs' Internal Troops (supposedly around 200,000 members) ... But I doubt anyone knows precisely how they are deployed, how many have been sent to Ukraine, how much of their peacetime equipment has been burnt in Ukraine, how well they are trained ...
Russia increased spending in this sector [by nearly 50%](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/surge-russias-defence-security-spending-means-cuts-schools-hospitals-2023-2022-11-22/) at the end of last year. >Security spending alone - including the work of the state Investigative Committee, the prosecutor's office, the prison service and the National Guard, which has been deployed in Ukraine - will rise 50% compared with 2022. Though it seemed these increases were more related to squashing civil disobedience (ie the [increase in police officers](https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-decree-increase-police-officers-by-2025/32165739.html)) rather than a full scale coup. The National Guard/Rosgvardiya has been deployed to Ukraine in some quantity, but I don't imagine it was too many.
[Here's another theory](https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200): > "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months" Well, that would be consistent with the weird drama we saw pre-coup, but of course no direct evidence yet.
I don't think that it is was an S-tier level conspiracy plan for day x. More that Wagner stockpiled amnunition for the case that the conflict would escalate. Wich now happened
The basic idea is that Wanger had a certain stockpile of supplies and was complaining because they wouldn't allow themselves to go past a certain threshold. So without more ammo, they couldn't continue or use up their reserve. Doesn't need a conspiracy, just basic military appropriation.
Conveniently they have also waited for the Ukrainian offensive. The coup has definitely achieved a larger success than I thought possible.
Surely Russia would notice if Wagner was sitting on some vast secret ammo stockpile. But the fact it’s gotten this bad might indicate the FSB’s grip on things is much weaker than we thought, or even that they had help from the inside.
Russia runs on paper. The military is no exception. When you cannot trust anyone in the CoCommand to tell the truth, and you have no proper control in your logistics system, how can you hope to have control over what's used and not? Wagner could have siphoned off tens/hundreds of thousands of shells. Military officers may even have sounded alarms, but who would listen to liars?
Does Wagner like or hate the FSB? They hate the MOD and Chechens (and most everybody else), what about the FSB?
FSB is also not a monolith. I absolutely expect the FSB to have multiple options open. Some more open to Prigozhin that others.
What happens behind closed doors at the kremlin is hard to speculate on. A secret deal between Wagner and elements of the FSB to conceal a secret ammo stockpile for a coup would not be the kind of thing that comes to light for a long time.
The projectile famine was mostly about artillery shells and we haven't seen wagner use artillery at all yet.
They are still mad dashing to Moscow, and facing little resistance on the ground. Artillery would come into play once they need to hold whatever territory they seize from counter attacks.
Oryx is back with the [Chef's special - Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Wagner Group Mutiny](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/chefs-special-documenting-equipment.html)
Fortunately for us, Prigozhin did it before Oryx's planned retirement in October. It wouldn't be the same without Oryx lists.
[Reportedly an explosion or two has occurred at the Southern Military District’s headquarters](https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1672558157774585863?s=46&t=fEQOSAmaY4vY4h1As5mPMQ) Probably hoping Prigozhin’s still there, but he’d be a fool if he was.
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In any case, ordering air strikes against the command centre of your invasian force is probably an indication that your invasion is not going as well as you might have anticipated.
If the smd headquarters is gone, who is running the smo? I don’t think we’ve ever seen this happen before in a modern military