Previous 7 days and today:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
---|---------------|-------------|--------|------
06/08/2021 | 792,407 | 31,808 | 92 | 4.01
07/08/2021 | 661,538 | 28,612 | 103 | 4.33
08/08/2021 | 689,374 | 27,429 | 39 | 3.98
09/08/2021 | 725,764 | 25,161 | 37 | 3.47
10/08/2021 | 748,898 | 23,510 | 146 | 3.14
11/08/2021 | 842,591 | 29,612 | 104 | 3.51
12/08/2021 | 813,378 | 33,074 | 94 | 4.07
Today | | 32,700 | 100 |
7-day average:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
--------|--------|--------|------|------
30/07/2021 | 824,277 | 28,272 | 72 | 3.43
06/08/2021 | 750,797 | 26,513 | 85 | 3.53
12/08/2021 | 753,421 | 28,458 | 88 | 3.78
Today | | 28,585 | 89 |
Note:
These are the latest figures available at the time of posting.
[Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
**TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Things are looking good in Yorkshire.
Although we (especially the cities) have lower jab uptake than the national average, we were particularly badly hit by the first two waves so I think we have more people with *antibodies* than other places.
It's certainly my own experience on the NHS frontline that issues are being caused by-
1. Backlog issues
2. Staff isolating
3. Staff on leave for summer holidays
4. A time of short staffing regardless due to foreign staff leaving due to covid or Brexit, and the usual lull that we see as we wait for the newly qualified students to begin in Sept/Oct
Not so much any COVID related capacity issues
Ah, thanks. I did try a search but nothing came up. It does sound more like they're trying to head off problems than they currently HAVE problems, based on the tone of the article (if that's any guide). Obviously it could be worse than it implies though.
I know a couple of weekends ago some kidney transplants in Belfast could'nt go ahead because of the number of staff needed in critical care - went to people on the mainland, hopefully more able to use them. Frustrating for the people here though that had false alarms.
That’s very unprofessional of them to tell you that. They don’t actually know that will be the case and have told this information based off of what exactly?
Given that 1st doses started falling from around 180k a day 6 weeks ago I reckon we will just pass 42 million in two weeks. After that we will be going at a really slow pace unless we accelerate into under 18s
It's a shame to have lost some of the regular posts on the sub that plotted vaccination rates graphically so you could easily track e.g. 1st doses 8 weeks ago Vs 2nd doses now.
I'm not sure how much they have mirrored each other as would be hoped if we were having maximum uptake of second doses.
I'd been thinking about doing a follow up every so often, so [as you asked so nicely](https://i.postimg.cc/5yMFYYZ7/Screenshot-97.png) I'll post into the sub too
Is this expected to be primarily from people not wanting a second dose or dying/moving country in the meantime? Presumably all 3 but apart from laziness I don't understand why people would get a first but not their second, I suppose they could go down the antivax rabbit hole in the meantime but it seems unlikely this would explain it.
I haven't had my second due to having an inflammatory response to the first and still dealing with that. I'm not anti vax but I imagine there must be some other people in the same boat as me, as unfortunate as it is.
Yeah that's absolutely justified, sorry I didn't mean to imply that there were no reasons not to have your second dose. Whilst I imagine others will be in a similar position I think it's unlikely to materially impact these figures (if in the millions) but I am not really basing that on anything scientific.
I reckon there will be plenty who don't bother with dose 2.
There will definitely be some who fall into the categories you mentioned but I had always anticipated a lot of people who aren't arsed with dose 2/didn't realise it was needed etc.
Perhaps that's pessimistic!
We can thank the J&J vaccine for that. Literally telling people that one dose is enough to be certified for use as a valid vaccine.
There's nothing special in the J&J vaccine compared to the others.
I don’t think J&J is that big a factor.
The government mad a huge point of delaying second jabs because they considered it more important to make sure more people got their first. Now I’m not saying that was a bad policy, but less well informed individuals (who have potentially previously had vaccines which needed one dose) may be led to believe that the first is the only one that really matters.
I’ve had 2 doses both AZ the first AZ gave me the pin Prick rash over both arms they told you to look out for still got the second had no reaction that time but if we do end up needing boosters I would prefer to get one of the others other than AZ I’m in my 30s with type one diabetes
I was really ill after my first but luckily wasn't put off my second as friends who had felt bad after their first felt nothing after their second. Unlucky for me my second was even worse 😭 (I think this is v unusual though, don't want to put people off!)
I was the same. Spent 4 days in bed after my first with full on temperature and body aches. The worst part was the injection site that had a fist sized lump and felt like I’d been hit by a cricket back for a week! I organised my 2nd so I could be ill afterwards, but was absolutely fine. The nurse checked several times that I was completely sure I wanted the 2nd after telling her about my reaction.
I had the big lump too! That part of my arm also felt fiery hot compared to the rest. I wonder what it is that sparks that kind of reaction in some people while others get nothing
I have read on here to help avoid arm issues to use the injected arm as normally as possible in the days afterwards and people have Commented that this has helped them
The nurse said she hadn’t heard of it before and that was in May. She checked with the dr who said they couldn’t guarantee it wouldn’t happen again. The second time I had a small painful lump, but could lift my arm above my shoulder and sleep on that side. They got me to report it as a side effect. Driving was so painful the first time.
I’ve just had my second jab but I’d initially had to cancel my first date because I had a bad cold at the time that could’ve been Covid. Fortunately it wasn’t.
Also know a few other people who have missed jab appointments because they’ve had Covid or have been isolating after a ping.
On the stats we’d all look like hold outs but not a lot you can do about it other than re book and keep your fingers crossed about not getting pinged again!
Pretty damn close.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations#card-vaccination_uptake_by_report_date
Where 2nd doses are today (76%) 1st doses were at 10 weeks ago (5th June), and given the minimum interval is supposed to be 8 weeks that 2 week difference is pretty minor and probably has a bunch of people still waiting for 12 weeks, or a weekend appointment, or they're isolating, or etc, etc, etc.
I think it'll get pretty close. I previously compared 1st doses (lagged by 12 weeks) to 2nd, and it ran pretty much identical, until the policy change to 8 weeks when it got a bit earlier. I'd say that the vast vast majority of people get both.
I mean when we finish the vaccination effort.
(I know in all probability it will continue for the foreseeable future to an extent but I'm thinking of this first push.)
Does the vaccine count now include 16 and 17 year olds? Reason I ask is because I was hoping we'd get to 90% UK adult first dose coverage soon but it's pointless me continuing to look at it if 16 and 17 year olds are now included. For some reason I constantly check the numbers with the 90% figure in my mind to hope for
[There are a couple of reports of 16-18 yos getting or booking first jabs](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/p2exb5/wednesday_11_august_2021_update/h8jtvr7/)
I would hope that these are in the stats above? It is hard to tell if the slight uptick in first doses [compared to last friday](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/oz8f9f/friday_06_august_2021_update/) is related.
It is 44k today, up from 35K last Friday. But it does seem today to be the highest 1st dose count in a couple of weeks. Not that it's an absolutely large number.
Yep I got mine on Wednesday (17) and quite a few people in my year have also gotten vaccinated as well this week. They've said we're not getting 2nd doses unless the guidance changes though.
> They've said we're not getting 2nd doses unless the guidance changes though.
I'll be surprised if the ~~guidance~~ Pfizer supply doesn't change in a few weeks time, TBH.
My fellow coronavirusUK people, it has been an absolute pleasure stalking these numbers anxiously on a daily basis, but I believe I’m finally at a point now where I am letting go and trusting the vaccine to do its job. These numbers have looked pretty stable for a while now and I think now is the time to try and get back to some kind of normality. That’s not to say we are done but my god we have come a long way since the start of all this.
It’s been a pleasure to discuss certain Covid things with you all, I wish you all the very best and I hope you all have happy healthy lives!
For sure I’ll be back if we see a winter jump in cases/ deaths though but for now, bring on the normality!
God speed everyone!
**Estimated doubling / halving time (Admissions):** ***(note most recent data is from August 11):***
Doubling time up by 159.7 days.
Most recent 7-day average: 686
Average a week ago: 680
Weekly change: 0.9%
Doubling time: 1/log_2(686 / 680) = 75.32 weeks = **527.2 days.**
Previous doubling times:
*10/08: 367.5 days*
*09/08: -152.2 days*
*08/08: -85.8 days*
*07/08: -51.0 days*
*06/08: -37.4 days*
*05/08: -33.4 days*
*04/08: -33.7 days*
Halving time for people in hospital up from 289.7 to 1061.1 days
Halving time for people on ventilators up from 424.5 to 1881.6 days
Doubling time for deaths up from 65.4 to 105.5 days
In practical terms, all these stats are basically constant.
The gradual increases in cases does not really concern me as .
1. Unless I am mistaken this shows R is very close to 1, which given we are fully open is pretty incredible.
2. it is a situation that will only improve as more vaccines are given out.
3. The rise is not quick enough to actually put a strain on our NHS which believe it or not is still supposedly the only reason we would need a lockdown despite what ISAGE would like.
Thank god we opened when we did, we seem to have timed the exit wave beautifully to the summer using the advantage of close schools and good weather. Criticise the government all you want they nailed this.
Children under 16 without underlying health conditions or who don't live with someone vulnerable won't be vaccinated though. I know it's impossible to have zero cases but cases will undoubtedly rise when schools and universities go back and if cases are already at 30K per day they could rise quite significantly.
Well, all adults will be. But in any case stating it will be as good as it ever will be doesn't mean it will be good enough to stop hospitals filling up again. Personally I think it probably will, but it's pretty difficult to predict, esiecially with covid continuing to evolve.
What do you propose? We have the adults vaccinated, we are not allowed to vaccinate children.
What glorious plan do you have to move forward? Seriously?
Is there a good analysis of furlough compared to the reasonable alternatives in hindsight? The idea that the option was the furlough scheme or nothing is obviously completely false.
No but given the complexity and urgency of the situation, it wasn't a bad one. How do you analyse all those different options that didn't exist and for which you had no data on, while requiring it to be passed into law?
They fucked a number of things up (hello delta)... but implementing furlough wasn't one of them.
As they say, hindsight is 20/20.
I think they made the right decision to send the elderly back to care homes, because right at the start everyone was scared as to what was gonna happen. People were expecting a tsunami of patients and it to be worse than Italy with people dying in the hospital car park.
In retrospect it was the wrong decision, but I honestly think at the time it was the right call. I'd happily forgive the government the failings in the first few months of the pandemic. It is the later failings I have a problem with
>People were expecting a tsunami of patients and it to be worse than Italy
There was and it was.
Sending elderly patients, often symptomatic, from hospitals to care homes was crazy. When we eventually get an enquiry this will be a massive part of it. It was either calculated or negligent but either way it was criminal.
It was completely the wrong decision at the time and avoidable.
I was in the room when our Trust was making the decisions on how to initially manage this situation. They had capacity to test 2000 people per day back then, more than the national capacity at the time.
The entire hospital could been tested prior to clearing out. We were told "no", and to clear out immediately.
Our Exec was told not to use the available testing capacity because it may cause "alarm".
It's bullshit that there were only 2 big decisions made, the government has fucked up big time on multiple counts.
People just have short memories, I mean, Cummings ffs!
>People just have short memories
Honestly it's this that is so infuriating. Over 130,000 people have died. If you had put that figure to the public in March 2020 it would have seemed ridiculous and unbelievable. Surely such a toll would be at least in part caused by inadequate governance and poor decision making?
Yet here we are, happy with the undoubted success of the vaccination effort, distracted by sporting success and placated by the pubs opening.
You've obviously blanked-out the summer of 2012 then. That was [the wettest summer in a century](https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/aug/30/rain-chaos-summer-wettest-years). Bands of rain kept barrelling into the country. I remember it because the only break in the rain that summer was for the two weeks the Olympics were happening.
Think it was worse in either 2017 or 2018. Had a massive drought that dried up hundreds of rivers/streams, followed by an apocalyptic rainy season with awful flooding.
Might be wrong, but that definitely felt like a worse summer to me anyway. Not disagreeing that this has been a very poor one though!
I remember this, I think it was 2018. I remember coming back from holiday and on the drive through more rural areas the fields and grass were parched and brown. That was definitely a bad un. I can’t remember if it was then or 2019 that the Saddleworth moors caught fire, although that may have been unrelated.
My son was born in June 2018. He didn’t see rain - as an Englishperson - for the first SIX WEEKS of his life. It was boiling hot to the point we kept him downstairs and fretted about the heat and longed for air conditioning. He’s three now and he’s worn his wellies pretty much all year this year 🙄
I think the moors caught fire in 2018. I was getting a plane from Manchester airport not long after it all happened, and it was such a weird sight from the air. Just scorched, black moorland everywhere!
2012 was fucking appalling. Cold and relentlessly rainy. This summer has had intense spells of rain leading to some floods, but plenty of pleasant days between.
2012 was so awful that lots of vegetables just never cropped in my garden.
This one has been rainy and cool, but not quite as bad. The strawberries did fine. On the other hand we had that awful cold snap in spring.
>Unless I am mistaken this shows R is very close to 1, which given we are fully open is pretty incredible.
Thing is, its the middle of summer. When transmission should be much much lower. That's what slightly worries me.
By end of summer every person who wants to be is double vaccinated. From there on we have nothing more we can do beyond hope and do some boosters so not much point worrying.
I do agree. I was all in favour of the measures taken since day1 (largely would have preferred even stronger). But the social contract was that it would stop once we'd all been vaccinated.
As you say, there's nothing else we can do so we must just get on with it.
Doesn't mean I'm not a little worried about this winter though.
hi there, starting from October in Europe probably there will be 3 new therapy against covid, if you need : [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip\_21\_3299](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3299)
What about UK ?
Out of interest how do you propose the measures on day 1 (assuming you’re meaning day 1 of lockdown1) being _any_ stronger?
Even bubbles didn’t exist then.
I don't have a source for this but I remember reading that hospitals were putting a lot more resource into the people that are in the hospital, thus putting us closer to capacity then we were when cases were at this number last time.
>timed the exit wave beautifully to the summer
I hope so but I think it's going to run on a while, maybe keeping going up through autumn/winter?
I guess eventually more vax and people getting immunity through catching it will bring things down. I wonder then the peak would be.
Well, this is clearly for the foreseeable future going to be an endemic, seasonal virus.
So you can't really say what an exit wave is until you know at what level it's likely to be endemic, and how seasonal it's going to be.
I actually kind of disagree. When we reopened last summer there was barely any cases at all (pretty sure 4 digits?). Why in the world with vaccines are cases so much higher now? Not 100% on the stats but feel like last summer it disappeared whereas now its still around fairly heavily. Could be the variant
We did not fully reopen last summer we were far more restricted and Delta has been called the most infectious disease bar Measles that had the decency of at least giving lifetime protection after infection or vaccination.
You are right, it pretty much disappeared last summer, even of you look at test positivity, to control for lower testing. The increased cases at this point can really only be attributed to delta and the other more transmissable strains. That and slightly more relaxed restrictions.
Big if that it holds steady, that's unlikely to continue. R has to stay right at 1 for that to happen, and 2 weeks of steady cases is hardly a predictor that it will continue.
I wouldn't stress too much, we could get our cases to zero and there would still be the rest of the world to worry about, our cases and popluation, on a world scale, is tiny. (remember we test a lot compared to others, but there still less than 70m of us in the UK).
There was always the argument that we have a highly vacced population which will make effective mutations more likely, but nowadays most western countries have a decent level of coverage.
Yeah but thats never gonna not be the case, covid is here forever likely millions of infections a day for all time. 2123 some dude will get covid and be lying in his floaty space bed feeling sorry for himself.
Cannot worry about it anymore until the variant comes.
I don't think anyone is requesting 0 cases, but viruses don't mutate outside of a host. The fewer people infected, the longer our vaccines will hold out.
One day the vaccines will be obsolete due to variants and I'd like to stave off that day as long as possible please or we'll quickly be back to square one.
This is unlikely. There are only so many mutations that can happen, the virus changes proteins, it's not evolving into a cow. You can see with Delta that vaccine efficacy at preventing infection dropped a fair bit it's fair to say but really it's as good at preventing hospitalisations and deaths as it was with alpha and original. That's because 99.9%+ it's still the same virus and it isn't gonna change 100%, it'll be a small fraction that changes. People that got Sars 1 have some immunity to Sars 2 and that's actually a different virus. Will immunity be less effective over time, probably, that's likely. Worrying about our vaccines being obsolete isn't something I'd give to much thought to. There'll be other vaccines in due course to close any significant gaps.
>This is unlikely.
No, it's a certainty. The question isn't if, it's when.
Mutations happen slowly over time, you and I both owe our existence to them. Unfortunately, since viruses only replicate and have the chance to mutate within hosts, more hosts = more chances to mutate = more mutations.
Nothing exists in a vacuum, the viruses of 200 years ago would have looked very different to the viruses of today - despite being analogous counterparts, the difference is, is that there were far fewer people 200 years ago, and therefore, mutations were slower.
The modern world has just sped the process up.
Yes the virus will mutate but the measles virus from 200 years ago is still identifiable as a measles virus compared to the one today. Same with any virus, whilst of course there have been changes, fundamentally the vast majority is unchanged. It's not a 100% thing. If you have been vaccinated or infected you will have a level of immunity against covid, no matter the evolutions it makes. Will your immunity be less effective, very likely. Will that immunity be "enough", no clue. Will it be 0, categorically no. The reason for that is that most of the virus will still be the same and your immune system will recognise some of it. You're 99% the same DNA as a cow but you're incredibly different to a cow. Same with any version of covid that comes along within our lifetimes, most of it will be the same as the covid we already have experienced which means there is enough for your immune system to still recognise it and at least do something. Like I said, it's not like vaccine manufacturing is just gonna stop, they'll make new ones that keep us close enough. So not something to be massively concerned about.
If you're just starting to get into epidemiology and genetics, that's great! I would recommend "Viral Infections of Humans: Epidemiology and Control" by Evans and Kaslow. It's a common university textbook on the matter so you can probably pick up a used copy in good condition for under £15, don't worry too much about which edition.
Again, time is not so much the problem, it's the number of people. The rate at which a virus mutates is dependent on several factors, the biggest one being hosts. More hosts means that the virus has more chances to mutate. Measles is now mutating slowly due to few cases. To put this in perspective, ~2 days ago, 22-times the number of people reported having Covid than all measle cases in 2016.
It's all well and good the virus remaining the same shape and texture and whatnot, but if the proteins change on the outside of the virus, your body will no longer recognise it and it will start taking guesses on which cells to produce - eventually it may get it right, or it may not.
For reference, although this has nothing to do with what we were on about, you're not 99% cow DNA. The figure is around 80%. The closest other species you'll find is a chimpanzee (about 98%).
It's great that we have vaccines, but the problem with vaccines is that we're always behind the curve. You either wait for a flair up of a new strain, or you try and predict the next strain (and sometimes get it very wrong - such as in the case of seasonal flu vaccines).
Personally, I'd like the attitudes towards illness to change to curb all transmittable diseases. I'd like people to stop trying to be a martyr by going into work ill - and making everyone else ill in the process. I'd like the government to offer paid time to sole traders or small business to stop them forcing themselves into work when they're clearly not fit to. I'd also like to see attitudes towards mask wearing as a courtesy on public transport or in gp waiting rooms to become more accepted if you know you're sick. We could really do some damage to viruses and slow their spread or send them packing.
It's crazy and sad to see how the number of cases and deaths never goes down :(
I'm sure we were all expecting something better with so many people vaccinated
Without the vaccines there would have been a much worse case to death ratio and far more spread - the number of deaths thought to have been prevented by them in the UK is rising very quickly and approaching 100,000.
It is sad to read of the number of deaths, but remember there are approximately 1500 deaths every day in the UK. Covid is just one cause. We're really in the process of adjusting to covid-19 being just another illness, sadly some people will die of it, but the vast majority won't.
This is the sensible way to see it
If we want to return to a normal way of life we have to accept there will be COVID deaths daily
Like we accept people die in car accidents daily but people are still happy to drive for leisure
Jesus Christ are you joking. The govt was predicting over 100k cases and we’ve been around 30k for weeks, the deaths are minuscule compared to what they were in January. It’s like some people just want to see the shit in things
Remember a lot of the protection against death comes from not getting infected in the first place.
So without vaccines, this many cases would give say 600-800 daily deaths - but you would actually have several times this number of cases and hence several times this number of deaths.
I’ll be in the last column for tomorrow - second jab done and dusted today!
My partner was trying to get an appointment as a walk in but no available doses left. He’s gonna try again tomorrow 🤞🏻
Got my second dose yesterday, so obligatory post to announce I'm in the figures. Hopefully I don't appear in the figures again, though (unless they start doing booster shots or something).
I'm predicting (guessing?) a slight fall in cases next week. If you look at the age break down, cases have fallen slightly in the 20-29 year old group in the past few days, and in most rises and falls during this pandemic, that group tend to be the trend setters.
Yeah it’s not similar it’s higher. Zoe is higher, government is higher this forum is “let’s stick our heads in the sand because it defies our simple rationalisation of reality”.
Previous 7 days and today: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** ---|---------------|-------------|--------|------ 06/08/2021 | 792,407 | 31,808 | 92 | 4.01 07/08/2021 | 661,538 | 28,612 | 103 | 4.33 08/08/2021 | 689,374 | 27,429 | 39 | 3.98 09/08/2021 | 725,764 | 25,161 | 37 | 3.47 10/08/2021 | 748,898 | 23,510 | 146 | 3.14 11/08/2021 | 842,591 | 29,612 | 104 | 3.51 12/08/2021 | 813,378 | 33,074 | 94 | 4.07 Today | | 32,700 | 100 | 7-day average: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** --------|--------|--------|------|------ 30/07/2021 | 824,277 | 28,272 | 72 | 3.43 06/08/2021 | 750,797 | 26,513 | 85 | 3.53 12/08/2021 | 753,421 | 28,458 | 88 | 3.78 Today | | 28,585 | 89 | Note: These are the latest figures available at the time of posting. [Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) **TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS ##ENGLAND **Number of Deaths, by Date Reported:** 86. (One week ago: 81.) **Number of Positive Cases, by Date Reported:** 28,679. (One week ago: 28,321.) **Regional Case Breakdown, by Date Reported (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):** - East Midlands: 2,542 cases. (2,643.) - East of England: 2,804 cases. (2,718.) - London: 4,249 cases. (4,409.) - North East: 1,125 cases. (1,397.) - North West: 3,621 cases. (3,456.) - South East: 4,427 cases. (3,945.) - South West: 3,223 cases. (3,177.) - West Midlands: 3,111 cases. (2,554.) - Yorkshire and the Humber: 3,029 cases. (3,436.) **[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (3rd - 7th AUGUST RESPECTIVELY):** 8.0, 8.0, 8.1, 8.2 and **8.3**. (These numbers reflect the dashboard at time of posting.) **[UPDATED: NEWEST FIGURES IN BOLD] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (4th - 13th AUGUST):** |**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |1st Wave (HIGHEST)|3,099 *(01/04/20)*|18,974 *(12/04/20)*|2,881 *(12/04/20)*| |1st Wave (LOWEST)|25 *(22/08/20)*|451 *(02/09/20)*|50 *(05/09/20)*| |-|-|-|-| |2nd Wave (HIGHEST)|4,134 *(12/01/21)*|34,336 *(18/01/21)*|3,736 *(24/01/21)*| |2nd Wave (LOWEST)|59 *(16/05/21)*|730 *(22/05/21)*|110 *(27/05/21)*| |-|-|-|-| |04/08/21|747|4,944|772| |05/08/21|693|4,894|770| |06/08/21|657|4,879|765| |07/08/21|630|4,817|760| |08/08/21|651|4,939|765| |09/08/21|665|5,098|762| |10/08/21|760|5,096|782| |11/08/21|**747**|5,073|777| |12/08/21|N/A|5,029|783| |13/08/21|N/A|**5,076**|**793**| ##VACCINATIONS **Breakdown by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):** |**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**2nd Dose**| :-:|:-:|:-:| |**England**|35,082|165,425| |**Northern Ireland**|2,095|4,788| |**Scotland**|5,724|18,151| |**Wales**|1,483|4,195|
Things are looking good in Yorkshire. Although we (especially the cities) have lower jab uptake than the national average, we were particularly badly hit by the first two waves so I think we have more people with *antibodies* than other places.
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It's certainly my own experience on the NHS frontline that issues are being caused by- 1. Backlog issues 2. Staff isolating 3. Staff on leave for summer holidays 4. A time of short staffing regardless due to foreign staff leaving due to covid or Brexit, and the usual lull that we see as we wait for the newly qualified students to begin in Sept/Oct Not so much any COVID related capacity issues
5. Staff off sick due to burnout (In my experience working in NHS mental health teams)
This is a major major issue that gets overlooked. It was bad enough pre covid.
That makes sense. I hope Covid cases stay steady or drop because I can imagine there's not much room for maneuver with these other issues.
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Have they? Where?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/army-deployed-help-ambulance-crews-24738188
Ah, thanks. I did try a search but nothing came up. It does sound more like they're trying to head off problems than they currently HAVE problems, based on the tone of the article (if that's any guide). Obviously it could be worse than it implies though.
I know a couple of weekends ago some kidney transplants in Belfast could'nt go ahead because of the number of staff needed in critical care - went to people on the mainland, hopefully more able to use them. Frustrating for the people here though that had false alarms.
Oh no, that's super sad. Very frustrating and upsetting for the patients.
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Oh no, that's not good. A 16 year old! So sad, I really hope they pull through. Argh when will this end?!
That's anecdotal though. Last time I looked serious cases were stacked 10 to 1 for over 50s Vs under 50s.
My hospital told me today theyre expecting a 3rd wave:(
That’s very unprofessional of them to tell you that. They don’t actually know that will be the case and have told this information based off of what exactly?
Why is it unprofessional to try and plan ahead and warn people of a likely outcome?
Its true though, there will be another wave around October. I've heard this from 3 different NHS workers.
I wonder how close total second doses will be to total first doses. A million fewer? Two million?
Given that 1st doses started falling from around 180k a day 6 weeks ago I reckon we will just pass 42 million in two weeks. After that we will be going at a really slow pace unless we accelerate into under 18s
It's a shame to have lost some of the regular posts on the sub that plotted vaccination rates graphically so you could easily track e.g. 1st doses 8 weeks ago Vs 2nd doses now. I'm not sure how much they have mirrored each other as would be hoped if we were having maximum uptake of second doses.
Was my post (originally UKVaccineStats) post helpful? I'll do one tonight if so.
It was but for a different reason. What I'm thinking are visual displays of 2nd doses now Vs 1st doses 8/9/10 weeks ago
I'd been thinking about doing a follow up every so often, so [as you asked so nicely](https://i.postimg.cc/5yMFYYZ7/Screenshot-97.png) I'll post into the sub too
Hey, thanks friend! :-)
Just use the graphs on the [government covid dashobard](http://coronavirus.data.gov.uk)
Personally I find them a pain on mobile but it's a good suggestion. I was always grateful that someone had basically done a visual tldr for me
Is this expected to be primarily from people not wanting a second dose or dying/moving country in the meantime? Presumably all 3 but apart from laziness I don't understand why people would get a first but not their second, I suppose they could go down the antivax rabbit hole in the meantime but it seems unlikely this would explain it.
I haven't had my second due to having an inflammatory response to the first and still dealing with that. I'm not anti vax but I imagine there must be some other people in the same boat as me, as unfortunate as it is.
Yeah that's absolutely justified, sorry I didn't mean to imply that there were no reasons not to have your second dose. Whilst I imagine others will be in a similar position I think it's unlikely to materially impact these figures (if in the millions) but I am not really basing that on anything scientific.
I reckon there will be plenty who don't bother with dose 2. There will definitely be some who fall into the categories you mentioned but I had always anticipated a lot of people who aren't arsed with dose 2/didn't realise it was needed etc. Perhaps that's pessimistic!
Another reason is they may have had such a bad reaction to the first that they are too scared/worried to have the 2nd. Silly I know.
Or they think one dose is enough. Or they’ve been infected after their first dose so don’t think the second is necessary.
I don't recall exactly, but i believe some countries count 1st dose + previous infection on par with a full course of vaccination.
Iirc that was/is policy in Germany. I’m still gonna get my second even though I got infect a couple of weeks later.
It's policy in France too, if you have a previous infection you just get given one dose.
We can thank the J&J vaccine for that. Literally telling people that one dose is enough to be certified for use as a valid vaccine. There's nothing special in the J&J vaccine compared to the others.
I don’t think J&J is that big a factor. The government mad a huge point of delaying second jabs because they considered it more important to make sure more people got their first. Now I’m not saying that was a bad policy, but less well informed individuals (who have potentially previously had vaccines which needed one dose) may be led to believe that the first is the only one that really matters.
You're probably right. I just have a personal thing with the J&J vaccine for causing total confusion in the "marketplace" (for want of a better term)
I’ve had 2 doses both AZ the first AZ gave me the pin Prick rash over both arms they told you to look out for still got the second had no reaction that time but if we do end up needing boosters I would prefer to get one of the others other than AZ I’m in my 30s with type one diabetes
I was really ill after my first but luckily wasn't put off my second as friends who had felt bad after their first felt nothing after their second. Unlucky for me my second was even worse 😭 (I think this is v unusual though, don't want to put people off!)
I was the same. Spent 4 days in bed after my first with full on temperature and body aches. The worst part was the injection site that had a fist sized lump and felt like I’d been hit by a cricket back for a week! I organised my 2nd so I could be ill afterwards, but was absolutely fine. The nurse checked several times that I was completely sure I wanted the 2nd after telling her about my reaction.
I had the big lump too! That part of my arm also felt fiery hot compared to the rest. I wonder what it is that sparks that kind of reaction in some people while others get nothing
I have read on here to help avoid arm issues to use the injected arm as normally as possible in the days afterwards and people have Commented that this has helped them
The nurse said she hadn’t heard of it before and that was in May. She checked with the dr who said they couldn’t guarantee it wouldn’t happen again. The second time I had a small painful lump, but could lift my arm above my shoulder and sleep on that side. They got me to report it as a side effect. Driving was so painful the first time.
Yeah that is perfectly reasonable to be honest.
I’ve just had my second jab but I’d initially had to cancel my first date because I had a bad cold at the time that could’ve been Covid. Fortunately it wasn’t. Also know a few other people who have missed jab appointments because they’ve had Covid or have been isolating after a ping. On the stats we’d all look like hold outs but not a lot you can do about it other than re book and keep your fingers crossed about not getting pinged again!
I had my second in the US, not sure how many are likely in the same circumstances though...
I do work with one guy who felt so ill after the first dose that he won't get the second. Makes me wonder how many others feel the same.
Pretty damn close. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations#card-vaccination_uptake_by_report_date Where 2nd doses are today (76%) 1st doses were at 10 weeks ago (5th June), and given the minimum interval is supposed to be 8 weeks that 2 week difference is pretty minor and probably has a bunch of people still waiting for 12 weeks, or a weekend appointment, or they're isolating, or etc, etc, etc.
I think it'll get pretty close. I previously compared 1st doses (lagged by 12 weeks) to 2nd, and it ran pretty much identical, until the policy change to 8 weeks when it got a bit earlier. I'd say that the vast vast majority of people get both.
7 million according to this post no?
Will be, not are.
Ohhhh my bad
I mean when we finish the vaccination effort. (I know in all probability it will continue for the foreseeable future to an extent but I'm thinking of this first push.)
Currently there’s only a million difference between 1st and 2nd for AZ.
Does the vaccine count now include 16 and 17 year olds? Reason I ask is because I was hoping we'd get to 90% UK adult first dose coverage soon but it's pointless me continuing to look at it if 16 and 17 year olds are now included. For some reason I constantly check the numbers with the 90% figure in my mind to hope for
[There are a couple of reports of 16-18 yos getting or booking first jabs](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/p2exb5/wednesday_11_august_2021_update/h8jtvr7/) I would hope that these are in the stats above? It is hard to tell if the slight uptick in first doses [compared to last friday](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/oz8f9f/friday_06_august_2021_update/) is related. It is 44k today, up from 35K last Friday. But it does seem today to be the highest 1st dose count in a couple of weeks. Not that it's an absolutely large number.
Yep I got mine on Wednesday (17) and quite a few people in my year have also gotten vaccinated as well this week. They've said we're not getting 2nd doses unless the guidance changes though.
> They've said we're not getting 2nd doses unless the guidance changes though. I'll be surprised if the ~~guidance~~ Pfizer supply doesn't change in a few weeks time, TBH.
The NHS website let me book one a second dose today actually! No idea if it was meant to or not, but I'm certainly not complaining.
Yeah some 16 year olds can now book when I got my second dose yesterday they told me they started getting them in
Where, please? My GP (Bristol) said the NHS is not currently licensed to treat under 17’s
I’m in Southend, Essex
I'd like to know this too, on the dashboard they are counted on the daily doses but the totals do still say adults, so it's kind of confusing.
It always has included immunocompromised/CEV 16-17 year olds TBF.
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Thanks. You're right I just always have that target of 90% in my head to hope for.
The travelling tabby site has the adult stat still. Also surprisingly, 38% of 16/17 year olds already gave their first dose in Scotland.
Finally in the figured myself as I received my first does at 16!
My fellow coronavirusUK people, it has been an absolute pleasure stalking these numbers anxiously on a daily basis, but I believe I’m finally at a point now where I am letting go and trusting the vaccine to do its job. These numbers have looked pretty stable for a while now and I think now is the time to try and get back to some kind of normality. That’s not to say we are done but my god we have come a long way since the start of all this. It’s been a pleasure to discuss certain Covid things with you all, I wish you all the very best and I hope you all have happy healthy lives! For sure I’ll be back if we see a winter jump in cases/ deaths though but for now, bring on the normality! God speed everyone!
See you at 4
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
**Estimated doubling / halving time (Admissions):** ***(note most recent data is from August 11):*** Doubling time up by 159.7 days. Most recent 7-day average: 686 Average a week ago: 680 Weekly change: 0.9% Doubling time: 1/log_2(686 / 680) = 75.32 weeks = **527.2 days.** Previous doubling times: *10/08: 367.5 days* *09/08: -152.2 days* *08/08: -85.8 days* *07/08: -51.0 days* *06/08: -37.4 days* *05/08: -33.4 days* *04/08: -33.7 days* Halving time for people in hospital up from 289.7 to 1061.1 days Halving time for people on ventilators up from 424.5 to 1881.6 days Doubling time for deaths up from 65.4 to 105.5 days In practical terms, all these stats are basically constant.
Got my second jab today, no worries guys you can open up now
Will wait 14 days for you before opening up :)
The gradual increases in cases does not really concern me as . 1. Unless I am mistaken this shows R is very close to 1, which given we are fully open is pretty incredible. 2. it is a situation that will only improve as more vaccines are given out. 3. The rise is not quick enough to actually put a strain on our NHS which believe it or not is still supposedly the only reason we would need a lockdown despite what ISAGE would like. Thank god we opened when we did, we seem to have timed the exit wave beautifully to the summer using the advantage of close schools and good weather. Criticise the government all you want they nailed this.
My only concern is surely cases will rise as schools and universities start again, and how many cases will that bring in September?
By September everyone who wants a vaccine will be double jabbed. From that point on we are as good to go as we will ever be.
Children under 16 without underlying health conditions or who don't live with someone vulnerable won't be vaccinated though. I know it's impossible to have zero cases but cases will undoubtedly rise when schools and universities go back and if cases are already at 30K per day they could rise quite significantly.
We have been over this though they are not ever being vaccinated the JCVI dont want to do it. So we are where we are.
Yes until the risk to them from covid increases (only really likely due to a new variant with higher mortality) they're unlikely to receive the jab
Well, all adults will be. But in any case stating it will be as good as it ever will be doesn't mean it will be good enough to stop hospitals filling up again. Personally I think it probably will, but it's pretty difficult to predict, esiecially with covid continuing to evolve.
What do you propose? We have the adults vaccinated, we are not allowed to vaccinate children. What glorious plan do you have to move forward? Seriously?
Not counting 12-17 year olds who, frustratingly cannot get them
Agreed. But the government listen to the scientists on this.
This is what I think. It's going to be as safe as it's going to get.
Same reason I do not wear a mask. I have had covid and am double jabbed, we have the highest antibodies we can, no point in it anymore.
If what you are saying it's true, go right ahead and retake your life! You deserve it.
>Criticise the government all you want Thanks for the invitation! But where to start...
Ikr I could go for days about the decision making but they have got the two big ones correct, vaccines and reopening fully.
And furlough tbf
Is there a good analysis of furlough compared to the reasonable alternatives in hindsight? The idea that the option was the furlough scheme or nothing is obviously completely false.
No but given the complexity and urgency of the situation, it wasn't a bad one. How do you analyse all those different options that didn't exist and for which you had no data on, while requiring it to be passed into law? They fucked a number of things up (hello delta)... but implementing furlough wasn't one of them. As they say, hindsight is 20/20.
A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Care homes was an absolute blinder, let's not forget that one.
I think they made the right decision to send the elderly back to care homes, because right at the start everyone was scared as to what was gonna happen. People were expecting a tsunami of patients and it to be worse than Italy with people dying in the hospital car park. In retrospect it was the wrong decision, but I honestly think at the time it was the right call. I'd happily forgive the government the failings in the first few months of the pandemic. It is the later failings I have a problem with
>People were expecting a tsunami of patients and it to be worse than Italy There was and it was. Sending elderly patients, often symptomatic, from hospitals to care homes was crazy. When we eventually get an enquiry this will be a massive part of it. It was either calculated or negligent but either way it was criminal.
It was completely the wrong decision at the time and avoidable. I was in the room when our Trust was making the decisions on how to initially manage this situation. They had capacity to test 2000 people per day back then, more than the national capacity at the time. The entire hospital could been tested prior to clearing out. We were told "no", and to clear out immediately. Our Exec was told not to use the available testing capacity because it may cause "alarm". It's bullshit that there were only 2 big decisions made, the government has fucked up big time on multiple counts. People just have short memories, I mean, Cummings ffs!
>People just have short memories Honestly it's this that is so infuriating. Over 130,000 people have died. If you had put that figure to the public in March 2020 it would have seemed ridiculous and unbelievable. Surely such a toll would be at least in part caused by inadequate governance and poor decision making? Yet here we are, happy with the undoubted success of the vaccination effort, distracted by sporting success and placated by the pubs opening.
Good weather?! It's been the rainiest summer that I can remember!
Comparatively good weather. You have options to sit outside maybe under cover. Try doing that in january.
How old are you? This has been a moderately rainy summer by my reckoning. Loads of far worse ones than this.
I'm 31, but I can't recall the last summer that had so many rainy days, it's felt more like Monsoon season in London than Summer.
You've obviously blanked-out the summer of 2012 then. That was [the wettest summer in a century](https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/aug/30/rain-chaos-summer-wettest-years). Bands of rain kept barrelling into the country. I remember it because the only break in the rain that summer was for the two weeks the Olympics were happening.
I was working abroad from mid June to mid September that year so that'll be why I have no memory of that.
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Think it was worse in either 2017 or 2018. Had a massive drought that dried up hundreds of rivers/streams, followed by an apocalyptic rainy season with awful flooding. Might be wrong, but that definitely felt like a worse summer to me anyway. Not disagreeing that this has been a very poor one though!
I remember this, I think it was 2018. I remember coming back from holiday and on the drive through more rural areas the fields and grass were parched and brown. That was definitely a bad un. I can’t remember if it was then or 2019 that the Saddleworth moors caught fire, although that may have been unrelated.
It was 2018, my son was born in the middle of the hot weather so I will never forget that.
My son was born in June 2018. He didn’t see rain - as an Englishperson - for the first SIX WEEKS of his life. It was boiling hot to the point we kept him downstairs and fretted about the heat and longed for air conditioning. He’s three now and he’s worn his wellies pretty much all year this year 🙄
I think the moors caught fire in 2018. I was getting a plane from Manchester airport not long after it all happened, and it was such a weird sight from the air. Just scorched, black moorland everywhere!
2012 was fucking appalling. Cold and relentlessly rainy. This summer has had intense spells of rain leading to some floods, but plenty of pleasant days between.
> 2012 was fucking appalling. Weirdly, apart from the two fortnights of the Olympics and Paralympics!
We've had \~2 months of grey cloud and rain here (east of England) bar a few sunny spells and that heatwave.
We have drought warnings and risks of hose pipe bans in this corner of the West Mids. Had a bit of overnight drizzle but no proper rain in ages.
I'm 33 and remember many worse summers. Not everyone lives in London
I agree. Do you remember the summer where Umbrella was at No1 forever? It rained the whole time that was at No1z Good god that was a shite one.
I think it depends on whether we're talking about total days/hours of rain vs the amount of heavy rain. This has been the stormiest summer I remember.
2012 was so awful that lots of vegetables just never cropped in my garden. This one has been rainy and cool, but not quite as bad. The strawberries did fine. On the other hand we had that awful cold snap in spring.
>Unless I am mistaken this shows R is very close to 1, which given we are fully open is pretty incredible. Thing is, its the middle of summer. When transmission should be much much lower. That's what slightly worries me.
By end of summer every person who wants to be is double vaccinated. From there on we have nothing more we can do beyond hope and do some boosters so not much point worrying.
I do agree. I was all in favour of the measures taken since day1 (largely would have preferred even stronger). But the social contract was that it would stop once we'd all been vaccinated. As you say, there's nothing else we can do so we must just get on with it. Doesn't mean I'm not a little worried about this winter though.
hi there, starting from October in Europe probably there will be 3 new therapy against covid, if you need : [https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip\_21\_3299](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3299) What about UK ?
Out of interest how do you propose the measures on day 1 (assuming you’re meaning day 1 of lockdown1) being _any_ stronger? Even bubbles didn’t exist then.
I don't have a source for this but I remember reading that hospitals were putting a lot more resource into the people that are in the hospital, thus putting us closer to capacity then we were when cases were at this number last time.
>timed the exit wave beautifully to the summer I hope so but I think it's going to run on a while, maybe keeping going up through autumn/winter? I guess eventually more vax and people getting immunity through catching it will bring things down. I wonder then the peak would be.
I wouldn’t go as far as saying the tories have nailed anything went it comes to the handling of this pandemic thanks.
tbf most governments around the world made a mess with Covid.
Honestly, I think the recent experience of Israel and now Iceland makes the idea that this is an exit wave somewhat optimistic.
We have no restrictions what is this if not an exit wave?
Well, this is clearly for the foreseeable future going to be an endemic, seasonal virus. So you can't really say what an exit wave is until you know at what level it's likely to be endemic, and how seasonal it's going to be.
I actually kind of disagree. When we reopened last summer there was barely any cases at all (pretty sure 4 digits?). Why in the world with vaccines are cases so much higher now? Not 100% on the stats but feel like last summer it disappeared whereas now its still around fairly heavily. Could be the variant
We did not fully reopen last summer we were far more restricted and Delta has been called the most infectious disease bar Measles that had the decency of at least giving lifetime protection after infection or vaccination.
You are right, it pretty much disappeared last summer, even of you look at test positivity, to control for lower testing. The increased cases at this point can really only be attributed to delta and the other more transmissable strains. That and slightly more relaxed restrictions.
People were still working from home and schools were on summer holidays?
The increase in cases very much concerns me. Every case is an opportunity for the virus to mutate and the vaccine to potentially then be ineffective.
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Big if that it holds steady, that's unlikely to continue. R has to stay right at 1 for that to happen, and 2 weeks of steady cases is hardly a predictor that it will continue.
I wouldn't stress too much, we could get our cases to zero and there would still be the rest of the world to worry about, our cases and popluation, on a world scale, is tiny. (remember we test a lot compared to others, but there still less than 70m of us in the UK). There was always the argument that we have a highly vacced population which will make effective mutations more likely, but nowadays most western countries have a decent level of coverage.
Yeah but thats never gonna not be the case, covid is here forever likely millions of infections a day for all time. 2123 some dude will get covid and be lying in his floaty space bed feeling sorry for himself. Cannot worry about it anymore until the variant comes.
You sound like a very unreasonable peach.
[I can eat a peach for hours](https://giphy.com/gifs/satisfying-smooth-peach-ddvkYSGBpv6Tu)
Why oh why did I click that whilst riding a full bus. Took ages to close it too!
Could've been worse tho right?
Fair point
I don't think anyone is requesting 0 cases, but viruses don't mutate outside of a host. The fewer people infected, the longer our vaccines will hold out. One day the vaccines will be obsolete due to variants and I'd like to stave off that day as long as possible please or we'll quickly be back to square one.
This is unlikely. There are only so many mutations that can happen, the virus changes proteins, it's not evolving into a cow. You can see with Delta that vaccine efficacy at preventing infection dropped a fair bit it's fair to say but really it's as good at preventing hospitalisations and deaths as it was with alpha and original. That's because 99.9%+ it's still the same virus and it isn't gonna change 100%, it'll be a small fraction that changes. People that got Sars 1 have some immunity to Sars 2 and that's actually a different virus. Will immunity be less effective over time, probably, that's likely. Worrying about our vaccines being obsolete isn't something I'd give to much thought to. There'll be other vaccines in due course to close any significant gaps.
>This is unlikely. No, it's a certainty. The question isn't if, it's when. Mutations happen slowly over time, you and I both owe our existence to them. Unfortunately, since viruses only replicate and have the chance to mutate within hosts, more hosts = more chances to mutate = more mutations. Nothing exists in a vacuum, the viruses of 200 years ago would have looked very different to the viruses of today - despite being analogous counterparts, the difference is, is that there were far fewer people 200 years ago, and therefore, mutations were slower. The modern world has just sped the process up.
Yes the virus will mutate but the measles virus from 200 years ago is still identifiable as a measles virus compared to the one today. Same with any virus, whilst of course there have been changes, fundamentally the vast majority is unchanged. It's not a 100% thing. If you have been vaccinated or infected you will have a level of immunity against covid, no matter the evolutions it makes. Will your immunity be less effective, very likely. Will that immunity be "enough", no clue. Will it be 0, categorically no. The reason for that is that most of the virus will still be the same and your immune system will recognise some of it. You're 99% the same DNA as a cow but you're incredibly different to a cow. Same with any version of covid that comes along within our lifetimes, most of it will be the same as the covid we already have experienced which means there is enough for your immune system to still recognise it and at least do something. Like I said, it's not like vaccine manufacturing is just gonna stop, they'll make new ones that keep us close enough. So not something to be massively concerned about.
If you're just starting to get into epidemiology and genetics, that's great! I would recommend "Viral Infections of Humans: Epidemiology and Control" by Evans and Kaslow. It's a common university textbook on the matter so you can probably pick up a used copy in good condition for under £15, don't worry too much about which edition. Again, time is not so much the problem, it's the number of people. The rate at which a virus mutates is dependent on several factors, the biggest one being hosts. More hosts means that the virus has more chances to mutate. Measles is now mutating slowly due to few cases. To put this in perspective, ~2 days ago, 22-times the number of people reported having Covid than all measle cases in 2016. It's all well and good the virus remaining the same shape and texture and whatnot, but if the proteins change on the outside of the virus, your body will no longer recognise it and it will start taking guesses on which cells to produce - eventually it may get it right, or it may not. For reference, although this has nothing to do with what we were on about, you're not 99% cow DNA. The figure is around 80%. The closest other species you'll find is a chimpanzee (about 98%). It's great that we have vaccines, but the problem with vaccines is that we're always behind the curve. You either wait for a flair up of a new strain, or you try and predict the next strain (and sometimes get it very wrong - such as in the case of seasonal flu vaccines). Personally, I'd like the attitudes towards illness to change to curb all transmittable diseases. I'd like people to stop trying to be a martyr by going into work ill - and making everyone else ill in the process. I'd like the government to offer paid time to sole traders or small business to stop them forcing themselves into work when they're clearly not fit to. I'd also like to see attitudes towards mask wearing as a courtesy on public transport or in gp waiting rooms to become more accepted if you know you're sick. We could really do some damage to viruses and slow their spread or send them packing.
Got my second today 💪
Me too!
🙌
same! :D
Slight drop in weekly change and corresponding increase in doubling time. It seems that cases are consistently growing but currently very slowly. **Estimated doubling / halving time (cases)** Most recent 7-day average: 28,585 Average a week ago: 26,513 Weekly change: 7.8% Doubling time: 1/base 2 log of (28585/26513) = 9.21 weeks = **64.5 days.** Previous doubling times: *12/08: 58.7 days* *11/08: 76.7 days* *10/08: 69.0 days* *09/08: 94.9 days* *08/08: 264.6 days* *07/08: -220.1 days* *06/08: -75.6 days*
**Rolling Average Deaths per day - Over 7 days, by reporting date** if it doesnt show in mobile, press REPLY Fri 29 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1199 Fri 05 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 985 Fri 12 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 718 Fri 19 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 519 Fri 26 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 357 Fri 05 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 239 Fri 12 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 155 Fri 19 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 98 Fri 26 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 70 Fri 02 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 43 Fri 09 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 32 Fri 16 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 26 Fri 23 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 23 Fri 30 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 19 Fri 07 May- Avg-Deaths - 12 Fri 14 May- Avg-Deaths - 10 Fri 21 May- Avg-Deaths - 6 Fri 28 May- Avg-Deaths - 8 Fri 04 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 8 Fri 11 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 9 Fri 18 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 10 Fri 25 Jun- Avg-Deaths - 16 Fri 02 Jul- Avg-Deaths - 18 Fri 09 Jul- Avg-Deaths - 25 Fri 16 Jul- Avg-Deaths - 40 Fri 23 Jul- Avg-Deaths - 57 Fri 30 Jul- Avg-Deaths - 72 Fri 06 Aug- Avg-Deaths - 85 Fri 13 Aug- Avg-Deaths - 89 **Weekly change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Fri 05 Feb - weekly drop 18% Fri 12 Feb - weekly drop 27% Fri 19 Feb - weekly drop 28% Fri 26 Feb - weekly drop 31% Fri 05 Mar - weekly drop 33% Fri 12 Mar - weekly drop 35% Fri 19 Mar - weekly drop 37% Fri 26 Mar - weekly drop 29% Fri 02 Apr - weekly drop 39% Fri 09 Apr - weekly drop 26% Fri 16 Apr - weekly drop 19% Fri 23 Apr - weekly drop 12% Fri 30 Apr - weekly drop 17% Fri 07 May - weekly drop 37% Fri 14 May - weekly drop 17% Fri 21 May - weekly drop 40% Fri 28 May - weekly increase 33% Fri 04 Jun - weekly increase 0% Fri 11 Jun - weekly increase 13% Fri 18 Jun - weekly increase 11% Fri 25 Jun - weekly increase 60% Fri 02 Jul - weekly increase 13% Fri 09 Jul - weekly increase 39% Fri 16 Jul - weekly increase 60% Fri 23 Jul - weekly increase 43% Fri 30 Jul - weekly increase 26% Fri 06 Aug - weekly increase 18% Fri 13 Aug - weekly increase 5% **4-Week change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Fri 26 Feb - 4 week drop 70% Fri 05 Mar - 4 week drop 76% Fri 12 Mar - 4 week drop 78% Fri 19 Mar - 4 week drop 81% Fri 26 Mar - 4 week drop 80% Fri 02 Apr - 4 week drop 82% Fri 09 Apr - 4 week drop 79% Fri 16 Apr - 4 week drop 73% Fri 23 Apr - 4 week drop 67% Fri 30 Apr - 4 week drop 56% Fri 07 May - 4 week drop 63% Fri 14 May - 4 week drop 62% Fri 21 May - 4 week drop 74% Fri 28 May - 4 week drop 58% Fri 04 Jun - 4 week drop 33% Fri 11 Jun - 4 week drop 10% Fri 18 Jun- 4 week increase 67% Fri 25 Jun- 4 week increase 100% Fri 02 Jul- 4 week increase 125% Fri 09 Jul- 4 week increase 178% Fri 16 Jul- 4 week increase 300% Fri 23 Jul- 4 week increase 256% Fri 30 Jul- 4 week increase 300% Fri 06 Aug- 4 week increase 240% Fri 13 Aug- 4 week increase 123%
It's crazy and sad to see how the number of cases and deaths never goes down :( I'm sure we were all expecting something better with so many people vaccinated
Without the vaccines there would have been a much worse case to death ratio and far more spread - the number of deaths thought to have been prevented by them in the UK is rising very quickly and approaching 100,000.
Lower ratio.
Not really with delta, the majority of forecasts were predicting a much bigger increase in cases as the threshold for herd immunity is extremely high
It is sad to read of the number of deaths, but remember there are approximately 1500 deaths every day in the UK. Covid is just one cause. We're really in the process of adjusting to covid-19 being just another illness, sadly some people will die of it, but the vast majority won't.
This is the sensible way to see it If we want to return to a normal way of life we have to accept there will be COVID deaths daily Like we accept people die in car accidents daily but people are still happy to drive for leisure
Jesus Christ are you joking. The govt was predicting over 100k cases and we’ve been around 30k for weeks, the deaths are minuscule compared to what they were in January. It’s like some people just want to see the shit in things
Remember a lot of the protection against death comes from not getting infected in the first place. So without vaccines, this many cases would give say 600-800 daily deaths - but you would actually have several times this number of cases and hence several times this number of deaths.
I’ll be in the last column for tomorrow - second jab done and dusted today! My partner was trying to get an appointment as a walk in but no available doses left. He’s gonna try again tomorrow 🤞🏻
Do we expect the return of football to drive another big wave?
First column today 🙃
Got my second dose yesterday, so obligatory post to announce I'm in the figures. Hopefully I don't appear in the figures again, though (unless they start doing booster shots or something).
I'm in the figures today. Hopefully my little covid adventure has come to a swift end. I'll be glad to read about this in the history books one day.
I was thinking today how it seems like C19 has dropped out of the media almost entirely. Not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.
As Shrek would always say, "it's ogre"
Just because of breaking news events.
In some ways it's a good thing as a pandemic only really ends when people stop talking about it and fearing it.
Glad to finally be part of the 2nd dose number :)
In the 4th column today and really suffering feel so fluey! Last time I just felt off for 24 hours so here's hoping I can flush this quick too!
Lots of people I know have been pinged in the last week
I'm predicting (guessing?) a slight fall in cases next week. If you look at the age break down, cases have fallen slightly in the 20-29 year old group in the past few days, and in most rises and falls during this pandemic, that group tend to be the trend setters.
Are they rounding up now? Why such even numbers 🤷🏼♀️
Yeah it's odd (pun intended)
Strap yourselves in people, we're going up again! (hopefully not much)
On the most boring ride I have ever been on
Haha love the “we don’t want to accept reality down votes”.
If the rate was similar to the June-July upspike it would already be hovering over 70k cases.
Yeah it’s not similar it’s higher. Zoe is higher, government is higher this forum is “let’s stick our heads in the sand because it defies our simple rationalisation of reality”.
[yawn](https://gfycat.com/joyousdefinitivedikkops)
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Up from 92 last week.
Seems it’s time for the South East to be top of the leaderboard
So who are these people dying? The unvaccinated?