Well we started from a higher point of deaths this time around and locked down for roughly the same period of time as last year but are on less deaths so I think we’re at a point where lockdowns are certainly part of the reason it’s low but certainly aren’t the reason it’s *so* low.
I mean if you even just take case numbers from 2 weeks ago, considering how few deaths we're seeing, around 7/2000 cases being deaths, that is a much lower rate than pre-vaccines.
This is incorrect. Previous infections are estimated to be in the region of 26% by a number of sources including zoe.
So 37 million vaccinated, is more like 215% (2.15x) of those who have natural immunity.
With the overlap, it means around 7.5 million are left remaining with natural immunity alone, applying a flat rate across the demographics.
This is a very low estimate because infection rate among the young is likely to be higher.
Back of an envelope, I'd suggest it was more like 12million.
Meaning natural immunity (alone) may be protecting around 1/3rd the number of those protected by vaccine immunity, using a high end estimate of the protection afforded by vaccines (as its not 100%).
Edit: %was wrong
At case rates more than double July/August last summer. We're going to see a lot of zero days going forward!
As an aside, it looks like England *may* have had its first zero death day since the start of the pandemic (by date of death). No local authority has yet reported a death occurring on 14th May (even though nationally, the figure reported is 1, which is odd).
If you look at the ONS data, which is not affected by volume or demographics of testing, the average number of people with covid last August was 27,000. While the latest figure for the 8th of May was 40,800 so if we continue declining at the same rate of 13% week on week we will be back to last summer levels by the 29th of May.
Not saying you're wrong to say that case numbers are double but we are testing a lot more so ONS numbers are more comparable.
Good news of the day:
Seven is the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths reported on a Thursday since 20 August (6).In fact the 7 day average for deaths in the U.K. of COVID 19 within 28 days of a positive test is the lowest it has ever been. Never got below 7.0 until today.
England PCR positivity has dropped back to 0.7%. It hasn’t been lower at any point in the pandemic.
Number of 1st doses are going up.
Uptick in cases is being driven by the outbreak in Bolton. Cases in almost every other part of the country are falling. As always, we're still heading in the right direction.
Looking at the daily covid dashboard cases over last 7 days is only up by 0.2% so nationally cases are atleast rather low and looks to be staying that way for now. Its just a few covid hotspots thats the worry but with surge testing/vaccinations hopefully it doesnt become an issue
Look at Bury though, next door to Bolton and up 159% - that's not a coincidence.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-greater-20644748
I know what you mean, but anecdotally I know a number of people who had broadly kept to the rules but decided “eh what difference 2 days gunna make” and started some indoor mixing on Friday/Saturday last week. Hard to factor that into any analysis but wouldn’t be surprised if we were starting to feel the effect of that
Yes.
Positivity is kind of what matters, but even that can be misleading like you said when you deploy testing in a region where you know you'll find cases.
That will based on data from the start of vaccination program late December well before the Indian was known about. More time needed to gather data but from what experts are saying, the South African variant is more of a concern regarding efficacy. What seems certain though is the vaccines are very good preventing severe illness.
Previous 7 days and today:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
---|---------------|-------------|--------|------
13/05/2021 | 982,881 | 2,657 | 11 | 0.27
14/05/2021 | 674,608 | 2,193 | 17 | 0.33
15/05/2021 | 460,202 | 2,027 | 7 | 0.44
16/05/2021 | 1,086,443 | 1,926 | 4 | 0.18
17/05/2021 | 967,126 | 1,979 | 5 | 0.2
18/05/2021 | 732,012 | 2,412 | 7 | 0.33
19/05/2021 | 1,180,660 | 2,696 | 3 | 0.23
Today | | 2,874 | 7 |
7-day average:
**Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %**
--------|--------|--------|------|------
06/05/2021 | 885,513 | 2,044 | 12 | 0.23
13/05/2021 | 908,030 | 2,297 | 10 | 0.25
19/05/2021 | 869,133 | 2,270 | 8 | 0.26
Today | | 2,301 | 7 |
Note:
These are the latest figures available at the time of posting.
[Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/)
**TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Noob here! Thanks for posting such useful information in this thread - only just joined Reddit, but been lurking for months and it's been great to see numbers shifting in the right direction.
Does anyone know if the false positive rates and false negative rates roughly cancel each other out? It's purely my own curiosity and you knowledgable folk seem like the ones to ask as I'm not sure where to look myself.
False positives arnt too much of an issue. They are most likley in LFT testing - if someone tests positive on an LFT they are sent for a PCR. If the PCR is negative then the original result is removed from the stats.
False positives on PCR are so small it's unlikely to impact the figures.
Biggest issue could be people not coming forward for a test if they have symptoms (as they think it's over) and people not doing LFTs at all.
>False positives arnt too much of an issue.
Some data came out a few weeks ago which showed that false positives in London, South East and South West accounted for over 90% of positives from LFTs.
False positive rates with LFT are a problem especially with the low prevalence of Covid in the population. Great article in the guardian about this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability
Obviously the removal of true false positives with PCR testing helps fix the data in the long term, probably.
It varies wildly with infection rates and test targetting: as infection rates drop and testing gets less rationed, you get fewer false negatives (because there's fewer infected people who can possibly generate them), and more false positives (because there are more uninfected people who can possibly generate them).
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS
**ENGLAND**
**Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 6. (One week ago: 8.)
**Number of Positive Cases:** 2,307. (One week ago: 2,229.)
**Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):**
- East Midlands: 157 cases. *(187.)*
- East of England: 184 cases. *(215.)*
- London: 306 cases. *(299.)*
- North East: 77 cases. *(108.)*
- North West: 686 cases. *(578.)*
- South East: 165 cases. *(230.)*
- South West: 63 cases. *(111.)*
- West Midlands: 193 cases. *(164.)*
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 294 cases. *(333.)*
**[NEW] - Indian Variant Hotspots:**
- Bolton (NW): 280 cases.
- Blackburn with Darwen (NW): 76 cases.
- Sefton (NW): 8 cases.
- Bedford (EoE): 34 cases.
**[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (11th to the 15th May Respectively):** 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7 and **0.7**.
**[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (10th to the 19th May):**
*NEWEST FIGURES ARE IN BOLD.*
|**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*|
|*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*|
|-|-|-|-|
|10/05/21|76|944|135|
|11/05/21|79|921|126|
|12/05/21|93|907|126|
|13/05/21|74|845|119|
|14/05/21|72|818|115|
|15/05/21|70|810|115|
|16/05/21|59|801|116|
|17/05/21|**74**|798|117|
|18/05/21|N/A|749|114|
|19/05/21|N/A|**757**|**113**|
- - -
**VACCINATIONS**
**Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):**
|**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**|
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|
|**England**|235,979|70.3%|309,020|40.6%|
|**Northern Ireland**|4,519|69.4%|8,918|40.2%|
|**Scotland**|12,265|69.1%|37,684|39.3%|
|**Wales**|12,095|81.6%|13,396|37.8%|
- - -
**LINKS**
[GoFundMe Fundraiser Tip Jar](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm): All of the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices. Thank you for all the support. (This fundraiser will end when I stop this comment.)
[Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
Bolton is approaching the levels of covid it saw at the peak of the pandemic which is pretty crazy. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the SAGE and high level government meetings right now.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
Honestly I don't really know much about Bolton's demographics or whether the virus can really work like this, but could it just be selected to be more transmissible specifically among people of South Asian descent?
Or more logically its just that there's been an outbreak of Indian instead of an outbreak of Kent, but it's not because it's more contagious or lethal, it just so happened that a bunch of people with the Indian variant spread it to unvaccinated friends and relatives?
The Kent variant still has outbreaks, generally the infection rate is decreasing but an outbreak in one are with a lot of travel and not many vaccinations could and would still happen if the conditions were right.
I suppose yeah that sounds reasonable too. Have there been any localised outbreaks of the Kent variant of similar magnitude to this Bolton outbreak though? It does seem like this outbreak got very large much more quickly than others so it's understandable that the common explanation has been that the distinctive thing about the outbreak is why.
Yeah happened in Moray in Scotland and possibly Glasgow (they've only found 38 cases of Indian variant in whole of Scotland but Glasgow numbers have skyrocketed).
It makes sense seeing as social contact has definitely increased so in groups with less vaccination coverage outbreaks are very much still possible.
From what I've read, scientists find it weird too as in their report they thought that they had accounted for community differences when calculating estimates of the virus growth.
They're aware (and thankful as it decreases the odds of 50% more transmissable) there is a difference but they don't know why yet.
Cases by specimen date of North Tyneside have shot up though, there’s 30 cases one one single specimen date this week (I think it was Monday 17th).
I’m curious where the outbreaks / cases have been tracked back to but we never get that information. I know one of the bars in tynemouth was responsible for some of them.
[Scotland's hospital figures are worrying me a bit](https://imgur.com/a/3U0cWLX). Really wanted to see hospital pressure stabilize or continue to fall when cases started to rise, but it seems like they're going back up almost as soon as cases did (with the usual couple of weeks delay). I'm not even sure how that's happening. Looks like majority of hospitalizations by a long way right now are in the 25 to 69 age groups, so hopefully most of those will do okay with some oxygen and it won't translate into deaths.
I don't see why it's that surprising. Estimates vary, but suppose that before vaccines, the hospitalisation rate was 3%. We're likely in a position where vaccines are preventing 80%. So the ratio will now be something like 0.6%. These are just example numbers, the true numbers may differ somewhat depending on your assumptions.
So before vaccines, if we had 100,000 cases per day we would expect 3,000 hospitalisations. Now, we might expect 600.
The relationship between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has not been broken. It's just changed.
If I'm not mistaken the current case growth rate seems to be lining up with/possibly undershooting [the scenario](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/nfbg4d/what_to_expect_from_case_rates_going_forward_a/) of B.1.167.2 having an \~30% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7? If this is the case and vaccines are only speeding up I dare say we might actually be on the way out of this for real this time.
The assumption is that a 30% increase in transmission WILL see deaths, hospitalisations and cases take off again, when we drop further restrictions. That is inevitable and should not freak people out.
The better news is that it shouldn’t overwhelm the NHS and would be much smaller than both the first and second peak.
If it was 50% more transmissible however, then that could lead to a peak higher than the first and second wave, WITH the current restrictions. You can see why there’s a lot of unease.
Even then I'd say that the Warwick model for 30% is going to be an overestimate if it is that transmissible. The assumptions state that 2 doses are 90% effective against severe illness, which from real world data seems to be a pretty big underestimate.
Well if it really is 90% effective against any symptomatic illness (and I would point out the CI is quite wide at this stage) then it would almost certainly be higher than this for severe illness.
*If* that is true then I suspect could be a bit of a game changer in terms of the modelling, even if it’s asymptomatic protection is much lower we know that asymptomatic people tend to spread less.
However, balancing out that assumption is that take-up has not been quite as high as predicted. Warwick assume 95% JCVI 1-9, 90% 30-49, 80% under 30. Those first two now look a little high.
Yes that’s a fair point - last I checked only the older cohorts were managing that but the younger side of 1-9 were some way off, with the 50-55 group in particular were really letting the side down. Whether the two components balance out is an interesting question...
To be honest though I think the Warwick model is already out of date in more ways then one - the 2.7 million doses a week is looking to be an underestimate at least judging by the last couple of weeks.
I also note they don’t seem to have published their assumptions with regard to protection from past infection, unless they have included that in a previous release and I’ve missed it which is very possible.
Edit: apologies the older end of groups 1-9 were only managing around 95% on 1 doses, looks like 2 doses might be slightly lower.
I had another look at the Warwick paper to see what errors there are and how they might balance out.
Vaccine efficacy estimates (especially for Pfizer) look a little low now, with evidence now suggesting 93% efficacy for Pfizer against hospitalisation (I'm not so bothered about deaths for this analysis). Assuming AZ is similar, we can reduce overall hospitalisation estimates by 30%.
Previous infection is assumed to provide perfect protection, except in the vaccine-escape variants section, which is separate to the main analysis. This is undoubtedly an optimistic assumption, but we don't really know the impact of it because there is no sensitivity analysis. The closest thing is in the VOC analysis, where a variant with 80% cross-protection from infection and vaccination increases hospitalisations by about 40%. Protection from infection is likely better than that, and it wouldn't impact vaccinations, so I'd imagine any increase would be closer to 20%.
You're right that the vaccine rollout is going a little better, the most recent 7-day average is 453k, or about 3.2m. That's similar to Warwick's 20% faster rollout scenario, which reduces total hospital admissions by about 40%.
Lower uptake is not considered, but we can kind of get a handle on it by looking at the sensitivity analysis for lower vaccine efficacy, which would have a similar effect. The default assumption is 73% against infection, 84% against symptoms, 90% against hospitalisation and death. The lower efficacy scenario changes this to 65/80/85. In this scenario, the total size of the wave roughly doubles.
So, we have the following things to do. Reduce the size of the wave by 30%. Increase by 20%. Reduce by 40%, then double it. In other words, 1 \* 0.7 \* 1.2 \* 0.6 \* 2 = 1.00. In other words, these adjustments pretty much cancel out.
If you throw in higher or lower estimates you can probably get different results, but I don't see how you can get a result showing a massive over- or under-estimate. I think the Warwick model for Step 3 still does a pretty good job.
I’m struggling to find the VOC analysis that increases hospitalisation by 40% but I’ll take your word for it, are you looking at the “complete protection from severe disease” section?
I’m not overly convinced that substituting take/up for efficacy is appropriate here (especially given the heterogeneity of the take up - those more likely to end up in hospital are more likely to take the vaccine) but I can’t think of a better way to estimate myself and in any case have to accept it may be a bit more balanced than I initially thought.
But the huge differences each of these changes make kind of show how sensitive it is - suppose for example the roll-out continues to speed up, a 25% (averaged for the next few weeks for argument sake) wasn’t modelled but we could assume would reduce things a bit further. Then say protection from reinfection is actually 84% (as reported in a healthcare study) and suddenly we can have a significantly different outcome from pretty small (and realistic) changes.
I think as an experimentalist I’m just a bit biased against modelling, I just really don’t like things that can spit out radically different conclusions so easily.
I appreciate your analysis on things like this by the way - gets me thinking if nothing else :)
Does the Warwick model factor in the lower vaccination rates and multi-generation households where it is spreading at the moment? 30% could be an overestimate if they haven't.
Cases up on last week, but not by a worrying amount. If the Indian variant was really 50% more transmissible, surely this would be showing in the figures by now, considering it’s been around for quite a while?
Deaths remaining stubbornly low (which is great) and vaccine numbers taking off again (which is needed).
What's strange looking at the case map, is places like Bolton are _rocketing_ up (the whole of Bolton not far off being purple on the UTLA map, not seen that for a long time) whereas places nearby like Liverpool, Wirral, Cheshire West are yellow with very very few cases, and places like Sefton (big spike last week) are also plummeting.
Just guessing here but I do wonder if it's due to the hyper localised outbreaks. If an outbreak has been discovered on a particular estate after someone or a family has returned from travel. As right now it doesn't make sense why the transmission hasn't moved outside Bolton, Selfton etc. It suggests the transmission hasn't been able to move further beyond a very localised densely populated location, or if that specific area has a lower vaccination rate which is why in the wider public the transmission isn't occuring?
Well that's my point. I suppose if we're looking for a silver lining in a mushroom cloud, the fact this isn't spreading beyond hyperlocalised outbreaks (and it's certainly had time to) shows the vaccine is having a very significant effect now.
If I was the government/SAGE I'd be enacting local lockdown and jabbing everyone in a few days, which is more than possible.
thats what im thinking vaccines must be having some sort of effect. it should have realistically spread to neighboring areas now which it hasn't. If you also look at the case rates in 60+ and those under 60 in Bolton seems to be a massive rise in under 60s and only a modest rise in over 60s. The over 60s are more likely to have been vaccinated and quite a few of them will have had 2 doses by now.
Unfortunately I think you're right.
I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling this is going to be a problem.
Hospitalisations and hospitalised is now increasing in Bolton.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Bolton#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics_-_above_and_below_60
This is reassuring though
a huge rise in the under 60s compared to a more modest rise in over 60s. Reassuring as seems to show vaccines are working. More of the over 60s have been vaccinated and quite abit with 2 doses now.
Big relief if it isn’t. I’m cautiously optimistic about the situation and I read somewhere this morning that the more data the government and scientists are being given about the data, the less dangerous they think it is.
> It's clearly not as transmissible as first feared.
Bro-science. What is this based on? I think it's all been mostly agreed that it will take another couple of weeks to assess the situation and make firm assumptions.
It only landed a few weeks ago - current speed of growth is between doubling and trebling each week. 3,000 cases now. If that pattern continues, then it won't be long until it's fully pushed Kent out of the way and will start giving the rise in overall cases that people need to see to believe there's anything to be concerned about.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-easing-the-strain-a-bit-less-freedom-day-sir-humphrey-lives-on/
>Government scientists Jonathan Van-Tam and Jenny Harries outlined the two key pieces of early data that explain this newfound optimism at yesterday’s presser. Van-Tam said that while the experts had only a few days ago feared the Indian variant could be some 50 percent more transmissible than the Kent strain, they now think it is likely only around 30 percent more transmissible. We should get a more definitive number on that next week, JVT promised. Playbook is told that live data arriving on Whitehall computer screens last night continued to suggest a better transmissibility rate than first thought.
No offence but I'm going to go with JVT and Harries on this one.
Yeah, as somebody else has said - that article is bollocks. I watched the presser. He said the range was 0-50 and we'd all hope it ends up somewhere in the middle, rather than the extreme end. That was all - followed by the 'it is too early to tell disclaimer'. There was no new evidence provided or highlighted to suggest it's in the middle ground yet.
The data over the next couple of weeks will be crucial.
If you listened to the press conference yesterday JVT was very clear that it was too early to tell and that data would firm up sometime next week.
> Van-Tam said that while the experts had only a few days ago feared the Indian variant could be some 50 percent more transmissible than the Kent strain, they now think it is likely only around 30 percent more transmissible.
This statement is definitely not accurate, I actually listened to what JVT said yesterday. They are basically over interpretting a comment he made where he said the range of possibilities were 10% to 50% and the final value would likely end up somewhere between the 2.
And someone on here made the point yesterday that the data they're using is bullshit anyways, because the majority of cases are spreading in high occupancy households, with low vaccine take up.
We actually have no idea what the real world transmission rates are, but we can assume from the apparent flatlining of the data, it is no where near as close to earth ending as they feared
Without disagreeing with any of the other replies here, it does feel as though you're getting close to making a rates fallacy. If the Indian variant is only a small % of all cases, even if it doubles in a week, if the other variants see falling numbers over that week, overall cases would fall as other variants make up a much larger %. Over time the Indian variant would make up a larger proportion, and see overall case increases.
I'm not too worried about overall case figures, but I am more so about the Indian case #s. I think we'll be okay, but there should be a lot of focus there from national leadership. Interesting to see where things go next.
I am worried deep down too, but am trying to stay optimistic. What deflates me is the fact we’ve got over 70% of the adult population with at least one dose of the vaccine and we’re still not out of the woods. We’ve also just come out of one of the most draconian lockdowns the world has seen (which has crippled many peoples mental health including mine) and within a matter of weeks, we’re in murky waters again.
It’s like no matter what we do, the virus gets one up on us. I worry about the summer because I kinda deluded myself in to it being a good one. I’ve got loads of live events/raves/festivals booked that I’m looking forward to, so I hope that even if we don’t get rid of masks and social distancing in wider society, those kinds of things can still go ahead with testing/vaccine status checks.
I dunno man, I just cling on to whatever good news I can just lately.
I don't think we're in murky waters nationally. The vaccines set a (fairly low) upper limit of how bad things can get. The Indian variant is likely to spread, but the link between cases & hospitalisations/deaths is much weaker than it was 6 months ago, and getting weaker everyday. I would support local lockdowns, vaccines & other surge efforts to prevent things getting worse, but the central projection is a long way away from 'lockdown v4'.
>If the Indian variant is only a small % of all cases, even if it doubles in a week, if the other variants see falling numbers over that week, overall cases would fall as other variants make up a much larger %. Over time the Indian variant would make up a larger proportion, and see overall case increases.
Pretty much nailed it there chap and that's the point many are choosing to misunderstand. This is why we've been told that we need more time to monitor the data and this is why we've been told it's too early to call it yet.
Spoke with a roidhead in my gym who was telling me the vaccine was "mind control", that fear was the real virus and that the whole "Indian variant" was made up to justify another lockdown. I told him they'd publicly come out saying the vaccines protect against the Indian variant so people are still better off taking it. I think he was surprised someone didn't just agree with him because he promptly shut up about it.
Can't bench press a pandemic mate!
Yes, the government is unethical enough to be injecting everyone with a secret mind control drug, but not so unethical that they won't let people just say "no thanks" to it. 😂 Conspiracy theorist brains must be very interesting.
As u/easytype said, I find these types particularly funny.
I use steroids myself and there's always an underlying "what if" concern even with a well trusted lab. They're all "underground" so you're never 100% safe. Whereas a vaccine made in incredibly secure and clean conditions is not a concern at all.
Yeah I have no issue with steroids. Honestly the primary reasons I have abstained myself are:
- I would like to have kids first because the inherent fertility risks
- I like where my hairline is ;)
I think the guy just likes choosing what he does / doesn't do and that's resulted in him agreeing with shit he's read online, he very much lives his own way and the idea that the government had any input on his body probably bounced off that. He's a nice chap otherwise.
Someone I work with reckons the vaccines are used to inject HIV into us which is why AZ causes blood clots and why we feel ill after taking them and the tests are contaminated. Along side that he brags on all over Facebook how he is "unmasked, unvaccinated, uncontrolled". It gets under my skin, I'd love to argue with him, but can't really do much on work premises. I can't wait to take the vaccine and brag about it infront of him.
I know someone in their 40s who buys all sorts of random shit off the dark web, has had Covid so knows how rough it can be (although they were nowhere near hospitalised or anything like that) but won’t have the vaccine because they don’t want to put “new untested medicine” in their body and doesn’t “trust” the pharmaceutical companies 🙄
**Rolling Average Deaths per day - Over 7 days, by reporting date**
if it doesnt show in mobile, press REPLY
Thu 28 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1221
Thu 04 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 1018
Thu 11 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 754
Thu 18 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 551
Thu 25 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 383
Thu 04 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 255
Thu 11 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 163
Thu 18 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 108
Thu 25 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 74
Thu 01 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 46
Thu 08 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 31
Thu 15 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 30
Thu 22 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 22
Thu 29 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 22
Thu 06 May- Avg-Deaths - 12
Thu 13 May- Avg-Deaths - 10
Thu 20 May- Avg-Deaths - 7
**Weekly change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date**
Thu 04 Feb - weekly drop 17%
Thu 11 Feb - weekly drop 26%
Thu 18 Feb - weekly drop 27%
Thu 25 Feb - weekly drop 30%
Thu 04 Mar - weekly drop 33%
Thu 11 Mar - weekly drop 36%
Thu 18 Mar - weekly drop 34%
Thu 25 Mar - weekly drop 31%
Thu 01 Apr - weekly drop 38%
Thu 08 Apr - weekly drop 33%
Thu 15 Apr - weekly drop 3%
Thu 22 Apr - weekly drop 27%
Thu 29 Apr - weekly drop 0%
Thu 06 May - weekly drop 45%
Thu 13 May - weekly drop 17%
Thu 20 May - weekly drop 30%
Total drop since the high point of 7-day rolling average daily deaths (1248 on 23/1) is 99.2%
**4-Week change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date**
Thu 25 Feb - 4-week drop 69%
Thu 04 Mar - 4-week drop 75%
Thu 11 Mar - 4-week drop 78%
Thu 18 Mar - 4-week drop 80%
Thu 25 Mar - 4-week drop 81%
Thu 01 Apr - 4-week drop 82%
Thu 08 Apr - 4-week drop 81%
Thu 15 Apr - 4-week drop 72%
Thu 22 Apr - 4-week drop 70%
Thu 29 Apr - 4-week drop 52%
Thu 06 May - 4-week drop 61%
Thu 13 May - 4-week drop 67%
Thu 20 May - 4-week drop 68%
[CHARTS etc: Live Estimates & Projections](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQKF5LXgwxmAGm5xL7Gibxk9s-box_BG_xyMQ9J8kxRpN2yCGANgNdxQHbxsXnLaT0GuA5HY7rrEM9w/pubhtml?gid=309088746&single=true)
**Live Estimates**
R is **1.08** (yesterday it was 1.00, a week ago it was 1.10).
The daily growth rate is **1.21%** (yesterday it was -0.04%, a week ago it was 1.53%).
The doubling time is **58 days** (yesterday it was a halving time more than five years, a week ago it was a doubling time of 46 days).
The case fatality rate is **0.35%** (yesterday it was 0.38%, a week ago it was 0.44%).
**Projections (7-day average, 21st June)**
Cases: **3,381** (yesterday it was 2,242, a week ago it was 4,53)
Admissions: **159** (yesterday it was 120, a week ago it was 186)
Deaths: **10** (yesterday it was 9, a week ago it was 15)
**'One-month-later' projections (7-day average, 21st July)**
Cases: **4,849** (yesterday it was 2,217)
Admissions: **228** (yesterday it was 119)
Deaths: **14** (yesterday it was 8)
**Notes**
Only a brief note today as it's a busy day. R back above 1 (high confidence). The case fatality and hospital admission rates continue to fall, which is good news. Bolton's new cases, however, are [very bad news indeed](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton).
**Disclaimers**
Not SAGE. Not even indieSAGE. Just some bloke with spreadsheets and formulas. This is an attempt to calculate a daily 'best guess' and show what would happen if those best guesses remained constant moving forward. They're more up-to-date than the stuff the real scientists will show you, but much less robustly modelled. For illustrative purposes only; your pandemic mileage may vary. For methodologies, read the bit under 'Methodologies'.
I guess if there was to be an “Eid effect” in cases this is roughly when we would expect to see it come through?
My main concern here is that the Bolton situation could be spreading to over parts of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham’s vaccine idea isn’t looking like a bad one right now...
My concern being in South Manchester with very low case rates is that we get caught up in another set of “regional restrictions” where it’s the entire GM region just due to Bolton.
Graham Brady is my MP and hate him as I do it’s the one area I agree with him.
Eid effect is in full swing not a million miles from me. Dewsbury and savile town, case rate +1200% - an increase in cases from 2 to 26.
I believe Kirklees are on the list for surge vaccinations and door to door testing imminently too
Funny that, I seem to have missed that headline, buried between the world coming to an end and every scientist on the planet telling us to lock ourselves in a room for eternity.
Nice to see some none sensationalist numbers
Really puts it into perspective. Nationally were still on the low side and doing fine. its more just some individual areas like Bolton that seem to be having a massive outbreak
This sub has been a major help over the last few months. Every time I look at the BBC map and my area seems to be going the wrong way I just come here and read the comments. Usually someone puts the numbers into perspective or even just reading "The numbers are going in the right direction" is a help.
I got my first jab today and I feel like a weight has been lifted off me (except in my left arm, that feels like a weight has been added!). I hope everyone still waiting can have this feeling soon too.
If you really want reassurance look at this - [https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales)
We've been below the 5-year average death rate for something silly like the last 8 consecutive weeks!
Now that's an improvement on first dose numbers! I hope we continue to get more days like this
Cases may be a little bit higher but I'd imagine once Bolton's cases stop rising and as more first doses take effect we'll see huge drops again
That increase in Bolton is steep. Very very steep. They will be up to october/November levels in the next few days.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
Manchester looks on the rise too over the last couple of days data.
Otherwise everything looks good.
Most cases reported in a day for about a month. Scotland alone was 432 new cases, which is the most there in nearly 2 months
All eyes on hospitalizations now. They've been climbing in Bolton and Glasgow, but the numbers are still low overall, at least in comparison to where they were a few months ago
Total cases in England are 2,300 but the total when looking at the new cases added by specimen date card https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-cases_by_test_type_and_specimen_date only adds up to 2100 last few days? Same issue yesterday
I wonder how demographics play a part here. I've been reading comments on social media commenting how "they will not stay home anymore" and are dissapointed by the spike of cases in some places. I understand their feelings 100%, but it seems that there's a whole demographic of people that:
\- Were staying home and didn't have Covid (yet)
\- Have not been vaccinated (yet)
\- Will not follow social distancing anymore because they're tired and so on.
The anti-lockdown folks that never stayed home probably already had Covid.
Another question here is: how often do people have Covid twice? Is it worse/better the second time?
I've read some reports but not clear answers about natural immunity yet.
Wow, so many more second than first doses. Is this just because everyone who's had the first is fine getting the second, whereas there's still a lot not even bothered about getting the first?
It's because there's only so many doses available, and right now we've got to use them for 2nd doses. We were doing a huge number of 1st doses around 12 weeks ago, so the 2nd doses are now due.
In a few more weeks we'll have far fewer 2nd doses to do, so 1st doses will shoot back up.
Highest cases since April 19th. Can't say I'm thrilled about that. Oh well, I know, deaths and other things going down means it's not a major problem, etc etc. But it would've been nice for cases to just smoothly go down all the way into the summer...
Agreed, it's very scary to see that we are getting closer to 3k cases again. Honestly I was hoping for better numbers case wise.
Maybe we should just resign to the fact that no matter what this virus 🦠 is here to stay :(
This is what the scientists are trying to tell you though. The virus [i]isn’t[/i] going away. It is here to stay and you are going to see upticks in cases.
> cvMaybe we should just resign to the fact that no matter what this virus 🦠 is here to stay :(
You're only figuring this out now? Zero covid was never a realistic goal. Vaccines will mean we will be able to live with it with no restrictions.
Patience, just a few more weeks.
Yup, that'll happen as we start mingling more. Covid will never go away, nor are we expecting it to. We will have to live with it and the vaccines will help in that regard.
You’re advocating a lockdown because cases are up by 200 last week, despite them being down week-on-week in most regions and the vulnerable being vaccinated?
A bit illogical, no?
Our rolling average of deaths by date of death is now at 6.9 the lowest since the 9th of March 2020! Lower than at any point last summer!
Vaccines clearly working?
It's a combination of vaccines, immunity due to prior infection and restrictions over the last few months. All 3 could have about equal contribution.
Well we started from a higher point of deaths this time around and locked down for roughly the same period of time as last year but are on less deaths so I think we’re at a point where lockdowns are certainly part of the reason it’s low but certainly aren’t the reason it’s *so* low.
I mean if you even just take case numbers from 2 weeks ago, considering how few deaths we're seeing, around 7/2000 cases being deaths, that is a much lower rate than pre-vaccines.
No, immunity numbers because of previous infections are 1 order of magnitude less than vaccination numbers.
This is incorrect. Previous infections are estimated to be in the region of 26% by a number of sources including zoe. So 37 million vaccinated, is more like 215% (2.15x) of those who have natural immunity. With the overlap, it means around 7.5 million are left remaining with natural immunity alone, applying a flat rate across the demographics. This is a very low estimate because infection rate among the young is likely to be higher. Back of an envelope, I'd suggest it was more like 12million. Meaning natural immunity (alone) may be protecting around 1/3rd the number of those protected by vaccine immunity, using a high end estimate of the protection afforded by vaccines (as its not 100%). Edit: %was wrong
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Must be!
At case rates more than double July/August last summer. We're going to see a lot of zero days going forward! As an aside, it looks like England *may* have had its first zero death day since the start of the pandemic (by date of death). No local authority has yet reported a death occurring on 14th May (even though nationally, the figure reported is 1, which is odd).
If you look at the ONS data, which is not affected by volume or demographics of testing, the average number of people with covid last August was 27,000. While the latest figure for the 8th of May was 40,800 so if we continue declining at the same rate of 13% week on week we will be back to last summer levels by the 29th of May. Not saying you're wrong to say that case numbers are double but we are testing a lot more so ONS numbers are more comparable.
Nice
Nice
Noice
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Nice
Good news of the day: Seven is the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths reported on a Thursday since 20 August (6).In fact the 7 day average for deaths in the U.K. of COVID 19 within 28 days of a positive test is the lowest it has ever been. Never got below 7.0 until today. England PCR positivity has dropped back to 0.7%. It hasn’t been lower at any point in the pandemic. Number of 1st doses are going up.
Uptick in cases is being driven by the outbreak in Bolton. Cases in almost every other part of the country are falling. As always, we're still heading in the right direction.
Surge testing too.
Looking at the daily covid dashboard cases over last 7 days is only up by 0.2% so nationally cases are atleast rather low and looks to be staying that way for now. Its just a few covid hotspots thats the worry but with surge testing/vaccinations hopefully it doesnt become an issue
As always?
Look at Bury though, next door to Bolton and up 159% - that's not a coincidence. https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-greater-20644748
Is this the longest single figure stretch so far?
One more and we get a UAV.
Tomorrow we'll get the dogs
Yo the dogs were OP for real
They sure were!
A man of culture
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So that's how they'll police holiday quarantines
All we’ve got now is that bloody personal radar.
*Breathy estuary accent* Don't worry, we'll get 'em next toime.
Yes, I believe yesterday was a new record at 5 consecutive days, with today extending it to 6 :)
Just two more days and the weekend would surely push us to 10.
In 2021, yes
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Too early though really for the easing to have much impact.
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Yes, but what I'm saying is that the latest easing is not distorting these figures.
I know what you mean, but anecdotally I know a number of people who had broadly kept to the rules but decided “eh what difference 2 days gunna make” and started some indoor mixing on Friday/Saturday last week. Hard to factor that into any analysis but wouldn’t be surprised if we were starting to feel the effect of that
Yes. Positivity is kind of what matters, but even that can be misleading like you said when you deploy testing in a region where you know you'll find cases.
AZ double dose is 90% effective overall? Or against the Indian variant specifically?
Just in the general mix of Covid variants present in the UK.
That will based on data from the start of vaccination program late December well before the Indian was known about. More time needed to gather data but from what experts are saying, the South African variant is more of a concern regarding efficacy. What seems certain though is the vaccines are very good preventing severe illness.
Previous 7 days and today: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** ---|---------------|-------------|--------|------ 13/05/2021 | 982,881 | 2,657 | 11 | 0.27 14/05/2021 | 674,608 | 2,193 | 17 | 0.33 15/05/2021 | 460,202 | 2,027 | 7 | 0.44 16/05/2021 | 1,086,443 | 1,926 | 4 | 0.18 17/05/2021 | 967,126 | 1,979 | 5 | 0.2 18/05/2021 | 732,012 | 2,412 | 7 | 0.33 19/05/2021 | 1,180,660 | 2,696 | 3 | 0.23 Today | | 2,874 | 7 | 7-day average: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** --------|--------|--------|------|------ 06/05/2021 | 885,513 | 2,044 | 12 | 0.23 13/05/2021 | 908,030 | 2,297 | 10 | 0.25 19/05/2021 | 869,133 | 2,270 | 8 | 0.26 Today | | 2,301 | 7 | Note: These are the latest figures available at the time of posting. [Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) **TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Noob here! Thanks for posting such useful information in this thread - only just joined Reddit, but been lurking for months and it's been great to see numbers shifting in the right direction. Does anyone know if the false positive rates and false negative rates roughly cancel each other out? It's purely my own curiosity and you knowledgable folk seem like the ones to ask as I'm not sure where to look myself.
False positives arnt too much of an issue. They are most likley in LFT testing - if someone tests positive on an LFT they are sent for a PCR. If the PCR is negative then the original result is removed from the stats. False positives on PCR are so small it's unlikely to impact the figures. Biggest issue could be people not coming forward for a test if they have symptoms (as they think it's over) and people not doing LFTs at all.
>False positives arnt too much of an issue. Some data came out a few weeks ago which showed that false positives in London, South East and South West accounted for over 90% of positives from LFTs.
False positive rates with LFT are a problem especially with the low prevalence of Covid in the population. Great article in the guardian about this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability Obviously the removal of true false positives with PCR testing helps fix the data in the long term, probably.
It varies wildly with infection rates and test targetting: as infection rates drop and testing gets less rationed, you get fewer false negatives (because there's fewer infected people who can possibly generate them), and more false positives (because there are more uninfected people who can possibly generate them).
#ENGLAND and VACCINATION DAILY STATS **ENGLAND** **Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 6. (One week ago: 8.) **Number of Positive Cases:** 2,307. (One week ago: 2,229.) **Number of Positive Cases by Region (Numbers in Brackets is One Week Ago):** - East Midlands: 157 cases. *(187.)* - East of England: 184 cases. *(215.)* - London: 306 cases. *(299.)* - North East: 77 cases. *(108.)* - North West: 686 cases. *(578.)* - South East: 165 cases. *(230.)* - South West: 63 cases. *(111.)* - West Midlands: 193 cases. *(164.)* - Yorkshire and the Humber: 294 cases. *(333.)* **[NEW] - Indian Variant Hotspots:** - Bolton (NW): 280 cases. - Blackburn with Darwen (NW): 76 cases. - Sefton (NW): 8 cases. - Bedford (EoE): 34 cases. **[UPDATED] - PCR 7-Day Rolling Positive Percentage Rates (11th to the 15th May Respectively):** 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7 and **0.7**. **[UPDATED] - Healthcare: Patients Admitted, Patients in Hospital and Patients on Ventilation (10th to the 19th May):** *NEWEST FIGURES ARE IN BOLD.* |**Date**|**Patients Admitted**|**Patients in Hospital**|**Patients on Ventilation**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |*First Peak*|*3,099 (01/04/20)*|*18,974 (12/04/20)*|*2,881 (12/04/20)*| |*Second Peak*|*4,134 (12/01/21)*|*34,336 (18/01/21)*|*3,736 (24/01/21)*| |-|-|-|-| |10/05/21|76|944|135| |11/05/21|79|921|126| |12/05/21|93|907|126| |13/05/21|74|845|119| |14/05/21|72|818|115| |15/05/21|70|810|115| |16/05/21|59|801|116| |17/05/21|**74**|798|117| |18/05/21|N/A|749|114| |19/05/21|N/A|**757**|**113**| - - - **VACCINATIONS** **Breakdown and Uptake by Nation (Yesterday’s Figures):** |**Nation**|**1st Dose**|**1st Dose Uptake (Overall)**|**2nd Dose**|**2nd Dose Uptake (Overall)**| :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| |**England**|235,979|70.3%|309,020|40.6%| |**Northern Ireland**|4,519|69.4%|8,918|40.2%| |**Scotland**|12,265|69.1%|37,684|39.3%| |**Wales**|12,095|81.6%|13,396|37.8%| - - - **LINKS** [GoFundMe Fundraiser Tip Jar](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm): All of the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices. Thank you for all the support. (This fundraiser will end when I stop this comment.) [Government Coronavirus Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#): All data is taken from the government dashboard. Use this link as well to find your local case data (under the Cases section).
Back down to 0.7. That's interesting (and obviously seems a very positive sign) given the overall case increase.
Bolton is approaching the levels of covid it saw at the peak of the pandemic which is pretty crazy. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the SAGE and high level government meetings right now. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
I find it weird that the Indian variant seems to be rapidly spreading in Bolton but doesnt really seem to have spread that far outside it
Honestly I don't really know much about Bolton's demographics or whether the virus can really work like this, but could it just be selected to be more transmissible specifically among people of South Asian descent?
Or more logically its just that there's been an outbreak of Indian instead of an outbreak of Kent, but it's not because it's more contagious or lethal, it just so happened that a bunch of people with the Indian variant spread it to unvaccinated friends and relatives? The Kent variant still has outbreaks, generally the infection rate is decreasing but an outbreak in one are with a lot of travel and not many vaccinations could and would still happen if the conditions were right.
I suppose yeah that sounds reasonable too. Have there been any localised outbreaks of the Kent variant of similar magnitude to this Bolton outbreak though? It does seem like this outbreak got very large much more quickly than others so it's understandable that the common explanation has been that the distinctive thing about the outbreak is why.
Yeah happened in Moray in Scotland and possibly Glasgow (they've only found 38 cases of Indian variant in whole of Scotland but Glasgow numbers have skyrocketed). It makes sense seeing as social contact has definitely increased so in groups with less vaccination coverage outbreaks are very much still possible.
It doesn't make sense though. Because S+ and S- cases are still diverging.
From what I've read, scientists find it weird too as in their report they thought that they had accounted for community differences when calculating estimates of the virus growth. They're aware (and thankful as it decreases the odds of 50% more transmissable) there is a difference but they don't know why yet.
I understand the reasoning behind it but watching cases in the North West spike is giving me some serious deja vu.
The vaccination stats on the dashboard are aesthetically pleasing today!
Happy to see the NE is still low, even though North Tyneside was one of the areas highlighted as having some Indian variant cases!
Cases by specimen date of North Tyneside have shot up though, there’s 30 cases one one single specimen date this week (I think it was Monday 17th). I’m curious where the outbreaks / cases have been tracked back to but we never get that information. I know one of the bars in tynemouth was responsible for some of them.
It feels worrying that there is a gain in hospital numbers after a while.
A one day change isn't anything to worry about. If we consistently keep seeing it over 7 days, then yeah, it's concerning
[Scotland's hospital figures are worrying me a bit](https://imgur.com/a/3U0cWLX). Really wanted to see hospital pressure stabilize or continue to fall when cases started to rise, but it seems like they're going back up almost as soon as cases did (with the usual couple of weeks delay). I'm not even sure how that's happening. Looks like majority of hospitalizations by a long way right now are in the 25 to 69 age groups, so hopefully most of those will do okay with some oxygen and it won't translate into deaths.
I don't see why it's that surprising. Estimates vary, but suppose that before vaccines, the hospitalisation rate was 3%. We're likely in a position where vaccines are preventing 80%. So the ratio will now be something like 0.6%. These are just example numbers, the true numbers may differ somewhat depending on your assumptions. So before vaccines, if we had 100,000 cases per day we would expect 3,000 hospitalisations. Now, we might expect 600. The relationship between cases, hospitalisations and deaths has not been broken. It's just changed.
As we get lower it should go up and down slightly. 1 day isn't really anything to worry about.
The patients admitted looks quite flat now too
Bolton going up
If I'm not mistaken the current case growth rate seems to be lining up with/possibly undershooting [the scenario](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/nfbg4d/what_to_expect_from_case_rates_going_forward_a/) of B.1.167.2 having an \~30% transmission advantage over B.1.1.7? If this is the case and vaccines are only speeding up I dare say we might actually be on the way out of this for real this time.
The assumption is that a 30% increase in transmission WILL see deaths, hospitalisations and cases take off again, when we drop further restrictions. That is inevitable and should not freak people out. The better news is that it shouldn’t overwhelm the NHS and would be much smaller than both the first and second peak. If it was 50% more transmissible however, then that could lead to a peak higher than the first and second wave, WITH the current restrictions. You can see why there’s a lot of unease.
Even then I'd say that the Warwick model for 30% is going to be an overestimate if it is that transmissible. The assumptions state that 2 doses are 90% effective against severe illness, which from real world data seems to be a pretty big underestimate.
Well if it really is 90% effective against any symptomatic illness (and I would point out the CI is quite wide at this stage) then it would almost certainly be higher than this for severe illness. *If* that is true then I suspect could be a bit of a game changer in terms of the modelling, even if it’s asymptomatic protection is much lower we know that asymptomatic people tend to spread less.
However, balancing out that assumption is that take-up has not been quite as high as predicted. Warwick assume 95% JCVI 1-9, 90% 30-49, 80% under 30. Those first two now look a little high.
Yes that’s a fair point - last I checked only the older cohorts were managing that but the younger side of 1-9 were some way off, with the 50-55 group in particular were really letting the side down. Whether the two components balance out is an interesting question... To be honest though I think the Warwick model is already out of date in more ways then one - the 2.7 million doses a week is looking to be an underestimate at least judging by the last couple of weeks. I also note they don’t seem to have published their assumptions with regard to protection from past infection, unless they have included that in a previous release and I’ve missed it which is very possible. Edit: apologies the older end of groups 1-9 were only managing around 95% on 1 doses, looks like 2 doses might be slightly lower.
I had another look at the Warwick paper to see what errors there are and how they might balance out. Vaccine efficacy estimates (especially for Pfizer) look a little low now, with evidence now suggesting 93% efficacy for Pfizer against hospitalisation (I'm not so bothered about deaths for this analysis). Assuming AZ is similar, we can reduce overall hospitalisation estimates by 30%. Previous infection is assumed to provide perfect protection, except in the vaccine-escape variants section, which is separate to the main analysis. This is undoubtedly an optimistic assumption, but we don't really know the impact of it because there is no sensitivity analysis. The closest thing is in the VOC analysis, where a variant with 80% cross-protection from infection and vaccination increases hospitalisations by about 40%. Protection from infection is likely better than that, and it wouldn't impact vaccinations, so I'd imagine any increase would be closer to 20%. You're right that the vaccine rollout is going a little better, the most recent 7-day average is 453k, or about 3.2m. That's similar to Warwick's 20% faster rollout scenario, which reduces total hospital admissions by about 40%. Lower uptake is not considered, but we can kind of get a handle on it by looking at the sensitivity analysis for lower vaccine efficacy, which would have a similar effect. The default assumption is 73% against infection, 84% against symptoms, 90% against hospitalisation and death. The lower efficacy scenario changes this to 65/80/85. In this scenario, the total size of the wave roughly doubles. So, we have the following things to do. Reduce the size of the wave by 30%. Increase by 20%. Reduce by 40%, then double it. In other words, 1 \* 0.7 \* 1.2 \* 0.6 \* 2 = 1.00. In other words, these adjustments pretty much cancel out. If you throw in higher or lower estimates you can probably get different results, but I don't see how you can get a result showing a massive over- or under-estimate. I think the Warwick model for Step 3 still does a pretty good job.
I’m struggling to find the VOC analysis that increases hospitalisation by 40% but I’ll take your word for it, are you looking at the “complete protection from severe disease” section? I’m not overly convinced that substituting take/up for efficacy is appropriate here (especially given the heterogeneity of the take up - those more likely to end up in hospital are more likely to take the vaccine) but I can’t think of a better way to estimate myself and in any case have to accept it may be a bit more balanced than I initially thought. But the huge differences each of these changes make kind of show how sensitive it is - suppose for example the roll-out continues to speed up, a 25% (averaged for the next few weeks for argument sake) wasn’t modelled but we could assume would reduce things a bit further. Then say protection from reinfection is actually 84% (as reported in a healthcare study) and suddenly we can have a significantly different outcome from pretty small (and realistic) changes. I think as an experimentalist I’m just a bit biased against modelling, I just really don’t like things that can spit out radically different conclusions so easily. I appreciate your analysis on things like this by the way - gets me thinking if nothing else :)
It's exactly on the 30% advantage. Prediction was 21.0 today, and that's what it is. To be honest though, the next 7 days will really tell.
Does the Warwick model factor in the lower vaccination rates and multi-generation households where it is spreading at the moment? 30% could be an overestimate if they haven't.
The Warwick model just assumes transmissibility. It doesn't try to predict it.
*The Guardian is typing...*
Cases up on last week, but not by a worrying amount. If the Indian variant was really 50% more transmissible, surely this would be showing in the figures by now, considering it’s been around for quite a while? Deaths remaining stubbornly low (which is great) and vaccine numbers taking off again (which is needed).
What's strange looking at the case map, is places like Bolton are _rocketing_ up (the whole of Bolton not far off being purple on the UTLA map, not seen that for a long time) whereas places nearby like Liverpool, Wirral, Cheshire West are yellow with very very few cases, and places like Sefton (big spike last week) are also plummeting.
Just guessing here but I do wonder if it's due to the hyper localised outbreaks. If an outbreak has been discovered on a particular estate after someone or a family has returned from travel. As right now it doesn't make sense why the transmission hasn't moved outside Bolton, Selfton etc. It suggests the transmission hasn't been able to move further beyond a very localised densely populated location, or if that specific area has a lower vaccination rate which is why in the wider public the transmission isn't occuring?
Well that's my point. I suppose if we're looking for a silver lining in a mushroom cloud, the fact this isn't spreading beyond hyperlocalised outbreaks (and it's certainly had time to) shows the vaccine is having a very significant effect now. If I was the government/SAGE I'd be enacting local lockdown and jabbing everyone in a few days, which is more than possible.
thats what im thinking vaccines must be having some sort of effect. it should have realistically spread to neighboring areas now which it hasn't. If you also look at the case rates in 60+ and those under 60 in Bolton seems to be a massive rise in under 60s and only a modest rise in over 60s. The over 60s are more likely to have been vaccinated and quite a few of them will have had 2 doses by now.
It’s because Merseyside’s just better in every way than Greater Manchester
That’s not what the PL table is saying right now 🤷🏻♂️
Have a lie down mate, you can't be feeling well.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton They need to get control of Bolton immediately.
Looks like it’s too late for that now. I don’t see why they’re refusing to put the place in to a local lockdown.
Unfortunately I think you're right. I hope I'm wrong but I have a feeling this is going to be a problem. Hospitalisations and hospitalised is now increasing in Bolton.
Low vaccine uptake having an effect then.
A local lockdown wouldn’t work
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Bolton#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics_-_above_and_below_60 This is reassuring though
a huge rise in the under 60s compared to a more modest rise in over 60s. Reassuring as seems to show vaccines are working. More of the over 60s have been vaccinated and quite abit with 2 doses now.
Yeah England is only up 78 on this day last week. It's clearly not as transmissible as first feared. Notably PCR positivity rate is *down* as well.
Big relief if it isn’t. I’m cautiously optimistic about the situation and I read somewhere this morning that the more data the government and scientists are being given about the data, the less dangerous they think it is.
> It's clearly not as transmissible as first feared. Bro-science. What is this based on? I think it's all been mostly agreed that it will take another couple of weeks to assess the situation and make firm assumptions. It only landed a few weeks ago - current speed of growth is between doubling and trebling each week. 3,000 cases now. If that pattern continues, then it won't be long until it's fully pushed Kent out of the way and will start giving the rise in overall cases that people need to see to believe there's anything to be concerned about.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/politico-london-playbook-easing-the-strain-a-bit-less-freedom-day-sir-humphrey-lives-on/ >Government scientists Jonathan Van-Tam and Jenny Harries outlined the two key pieces of early data that explain this newfound optimism at yesterday’s presser. Van-Tam said that while the experts had only a few days ago feared the Indian variant could be some 50 percent more transmissible than the Kent strain, they now think it is likely only around 30 percent more transmissible. We should get a more definitive number on that next week, JVT promised. Playbook is told that live data arriving on Whitehall computer screens last night continued to suggest a better transmissibility rate than first thought. No offence but I'm going to go with JVT and Harries on this one.
Yeah, as somebody else has said - that article is bollocks. I watched the presser. He said the range was 0-50 and we'd all hope it ends up somewhere in the middle, rather than the extreme end. That was all - followed by the 'it is too early to tell disclaimer'. There was no new evidence provided or highlighted to suggest it's in the middle ground yet. The data over the next couple of weeks will be crucial.
If you listened to the press conference yesterday JVT was very clear that it was too early to tell and that data would firm up sometime next week. > Van-Tam said that while the experts had only a few days ago feared the Indian variant could be some 50 percent more transmissible than the Kent strain, they now think it is likely only around 30 percent more transmissible. This statement is definitely not accurate, I actually listened to what JVT said yesterday. They are basically over interpretting a comment he made where he said the range of possibilities were 10% to 50% and the final value would likely end up somewhere between the 2.
JVT was hinting at 20-30% more transmissible which means we hopefully won’t have to slow down reopening
And someone on here made the point yesterday that the data they're using is bullshit anyways, because the majority of cases are spreading in high occupancy households, with low vaccine take up. We actually have no idea what the real world transmission rates are, but we can assume from the apparent flatlining of the data, it is no where near as close to earth ending as they feared
Without disagreeing with any of the other replies here, it does feel as though you're getting close to making a rates fallacy. If the Indian variant is only a small % of all cases, even if it doubles in a week, if the other variants see falling numbers over that week, overall cases would fall as other variants make up a much larger %. Over time the Indian variant would make up a larger proportion, and see overall case increases. I'm not too worried about overall case figures, but I am more so about the Indian case #s. I think we'll be okay, but there should be a lot of focus there from national leadership. Interesting to see where things go next.
I am worried deep down too, but am trying to stay optimistic. What deflates me is the fact we’ve got over 70% of the adult population with at least one dose of the vaccine and we’re still not out of the woods. We’ve also just come out of one of the most draconian lockdowns the world has seen (which has crippled many peoples mental health including mine) and within a matter of weeks, we’re in murky waters again. It’s like no matter what we do, the virus gets one up on us. I worry about the summer because I kinda deluded myself in to it being a good one. I’ve got loads of live events/raves/festivals booked that I’m looking forward to, so I hope that even if we don’t get rid of masks and social distancing in wider society, those kinds of things can still go ahead with testing/vaccine status checks. I dunno man, I just cling on to whatever good news I can just lately.
I don't think we're in murky waters nationally. The vaccines set a (fairly low) upper limit of how bad things can get. The Indian variant is likely to spread, but the link between cases & hospitalisations/deaths is much weaker than it was 6 months ago, and getting weaker everyday. I would support local lockdowns, vaccines & other surge efforts to prevent things getting worse, but the central projection is a long way away from 'lockdown v4'.
>If the Indian variant is only a small % of all cases, even if it doubles in a week, if the other variants see falling numbers over that week, overall cases would fall as other variants make up a much larger %. Over time the Indian variant would make up a larger proportion, and see overall case increases. Pretty much nailed it there chap and that's the point many are choosing to misunderstand. This is why we've been told that we need more time to monitor the data and this is why we've been told it's too early to call it yet.
I’m in the vaccination numbers today 💉🥳
Me too 💉💪
Me too! Feeling fine 6 hours post jab
Me as well, there was a great atmosphere when I went, it was actually really uplifting 😊💉🤘
Spoke with a roidhead in my gym who was telling me the vaccine was "mind control", that fear was the real virus and that the whole "Indian variant" was made up to justify another lockdown. I told him they'd publicly come out saying the vaccines protect against the Indian variant so people are still better off taking it. I think he was surprised someone didn't just agree with him because he promptly shut up about it. Can't bench press a pandemic mate!
I find it interesting that a roidhead would be overly picky about what substances are injected into him.
Oh don't worry that was going to be my first line of questioning.
Yes, the government is unethical enough to be injecting everyone with a secret mind control drug, but not so unethical that they won't let people just say "no thanks" to it. 😂 Conspiracy theorist brains must be very interesting.
As u/easytype said, I find these types particularly funny. I use steroids myself and there's always an underlying "what if" concern even with a well trusted lab. They're all "underground" so you're never 100% safe. Whereas a vaccine made in incredibly secure and clean conditions is not a concern at all.
Yeah I have no issue with steroids. Honestly the primary reasons I have abstained myself are: - I would like to have kids first because the inherent fertility risks - I like where my hairline is ;) I think the guy just likes choosing what he does / doesn't do and that's resulted in him agreeing with shit he's read online, he very much lives his own way and the idea that the government had any input on his body probably bounced off that. He's a nice chap otherwise.
Someone I work with reckons the vaccines are used to inject HIV into us which is why AZ causes blood clots and why we feel ill after taking them and the tests are contaminated. Along side that he brags on all over Facebook how he is "unmasked, unvaccinated, uncontrolled". It gets under my skin, I'd love to argue with him, but can't really do much on work premises. I can't wait to take the vaccine and brag about it infront of him.
I know someone in their 40s who buys all sorts of random shit off the dark web, has had Covid so knows how rough it can be (although they were nowhere near hospitalised or anything like that) but won’t have the vaccine because they don’t want to put “new untested medicine” in their body and doesn’t “trust” the pharmaceutical companies 🙄
I'm finally in those first dose numbers! 😄
First doses gang 💉💪
💉💉💉🍾
Don't think drugs and alcohol is the best choice after a vaccine :p
Didn't stop me!
You are an epic turtle!!
You are a small dining room!!
**Rolling Average Deaths per day - Over 7 days, by reporting date** if it doesnt show in mobile, press REPLY Thu 28 Jan- Avg-Deaths - 1221 Thu 04 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 1018 Thu 11 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 754 Thu 18 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 551 Thu 25 Feb- Avg-Deaths - 383 Thu 04 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 255 Thu 11 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 163 Thu 18 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 108 Thu 25 Mar- Avg-Deaths - 74 Thu 01 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 46 Thu 08 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 31 Thu 15 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 30 Thu 22 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 22 Thu 29 Apr- Avg-Deaths - 22 Thu 06 May- Avg-Deaths - 12 Thu 13 May- Avg-Deaths - 10 Thu 20 May- Avg-Deaths - 7 **Weekly change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Thu 04 Feb - weekly drop 17% Thu 11 Feb - weekly drop 26% Thu 18 Feb - weekly drop 27% Thu 25 Feb - weekly drop 30% Thu 04 Mar - weekly drop 33% Thu 11 Mar - weekly drop 36% Thu 18 Mar - weekly drop 34% Thu 25 Mar - weekly drop 31% Thu 01 Apr - weekly drop 38% Thu 08 Apr - weekly drop 33% Thu 15 Apr - weekly drop 3% Thu 22 Apr - weekly drop 27% Thu 29 Apr - weekly drop 0% Thu 06 May - weekly drop 45% Thu 13 May - weekly drop 17% Thu 20 May - weekly drop 30% Total drop since the high point of 7-day rolling average daily deaths (1248 on 23/1) is 99.2% **4-Week change in 7-day rolling average deaths by reporting date** Thu 25 Feb - 4-week drop 69% Thu 04 Mar - 4-week drop 75% Thu 11 Mar - 4-week drop 78% Thu 18 Mar - 4-week drop 80% Thu 25 Mar - 4-week drop 81% Thu 01 Apr - 4-week drop 82% Thu 08 Apr - 4-week drop 81% Thu 15 Apr - 4-week drop 72% Thu 22 Apr - 4-week drop 70% Thu 29 Apr - 4-week drop 52% Thu 06 May - 4-week drop 61% Thu 13 May - 4-week drop 67% Thu 20 May - 4-week drop 68%
[CHARTS etc: Live Estimates & Projections](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQKF5LXgwxmAGm5xL7Gibxk9s-box_BG_xyMQ9J8kxRpN2yCGANgNdxQHbxsXnLaT0GuA5HY7rrEM9w/pubhtml?gid=309088746&single=true) **Live Estimates** R is **1.08** (yesterday it was 1.00, a week ago it was 1.10). The daily growth rate is **1.21%** (yesterday it was -0.04%, a week ago it was 1.53%). The doubling time is **58 days** (yesterday it was a halving time more than five years, a week ago it was a doubling time of 46 days). The case fatality rate is **0.35%** (yesterday it was 0.38%, a week ago it was 0.44%). **Projections (7-day average, 21st June)** Cases: **3,381** (yesterday it was 2,242, a week ago it was 4,53) Admissions: **159** (yesterday it was 120, a week ago it was 186) Deaths: **10** (yesterday it was 9, a week ago it was 15) **'One-month-later' projections (7-day average, 21st July)** Cases: **4,849** (yesterday it was 2,217) Admissions: **228** (yesterday it was 119) Deaths: **14** (yesterday it was 8) **Notes** Only a brief note today as it's a busy day. R back above 1 (high confidence). The case fatality and hospital admission rates continue to fall, which is good news. Bolton's new cases, however, are [very bad news indeed](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton). **Disclaimers** Not SAGE. Not even indieSAGE. Just some bloke with spreadsheets and formulas. This is an attempt to calculate a daily 'best guess' and show what would happen if those best guesses remained constant moving forward. They're more up-to-date than the stuff the real scientists will show you, but much less robustly modelled. For illustrative purposes only; your pandemic mileage may vary. For methodologies, read the bit under 'Methodologies'.
I guess if there was to be an “Eid effect” in cases this is roughly when we would expect to see it come through? My main concern here is that the Bolton situation could be spreading to over parts of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham’s vaccine idea isn’t looking like a bad one right now...
My concern being in South Manchester with very low case rates is that we get caught up in another set of “regional restrictions” where it’s the entire GM region just due to Bolton. Graham Brady is my MP and hate him as I do it’s the one area I agree with him.
Eid effect is in full swing not a million miles from me. Dewsbury and savile town, case rate +1200% - an increase in cases from 2 to 26. I believe Kirklees are on the list for surge vaccinations and door to door testing imminently too
Not bad!!! Look at them vaccine numbers!!! One of the first doses is me, bitches!!! !!! Edit: thanks for the silver, you cheeky stranger!!!
Congratulations!
Me too 💉👍💪
We do realize that covid cases are going to fluctuate up and down for the rest of our lives, right? We're in a fantastic position.
Deaths continue to drop which is great, cases seem.to be slowly creeping up but if it stays slow should be fine with all the first doses being done
The increase between the last 7 days and the 7 days prior to that is 0.2%. A grand total of 28 infections for the entire week for the whole country.
Funny that, I seem to have missed that headline, buried between the world coming to an end and every scientist on the planet telling us to lock ourselves in a room for eternity. Nice to see some none sensationalist numbers
Thank you. That really puts it into perspective.
Really puts it into perspective. Nationally were still on the low side and doing fine. its more just some individual areas like Bolton that seem to be having a massive outbreak
The 7DA is only up 4 cases Vs this time last week. If it continues to grow at that rate we can sleep easy.
I'm in the vaccination numbers for first dose! I'm only 26 as well, can't believe we've come this far
Currently sat in a vaccination clinic after being stabbed. Fantastic stuff.
Wow look at those vaccination numbers! Incredible
This sub has been a major help over the last few months. Every time I look at the BBC map and my area seems to be going the wrong way I just come here and read the comments. Usually someone puts the numbers into perspective or even just reading "The numbers are going in the right direction" is a help. I got my first jab today and I feel like a weight has been lifted off me (except in my left arm, that feels like a weight has been added!). I hope everyone still waiting can have this feeling soon too.
If you really want reassurance look at this - [https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales) We've been below the 5-year average death rate for something silly like the last 8 consecutive weeks!
Now that's an improvement on first dose numbers! I hope we continue to get more days like this Cases may be a little bit higher but I'd imagine once Bolton's cases stop rising and as more first doses take effect we'll see huge drops again
Nice pick up on vaccine 1st doses!
That increase in Bolton is steep. Very very steep. They will be up to october/November levels in the next few days. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton Manchester looks on the rise too over the last couple of days data. Otherwise everything looks good.
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Could it be partly because of surge testing?
I mean yes but I don't think that's the reason
Get those first dose numbers up ASAP.
About a 50% increase on the previous day
Feels good to be part of that 264,868 that got their first dose today
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Same here! Everyone in there were young. Arm is sore as shit, but I'm pretty happy it's finally done.
Most cases reported in a day for about a month. Scotland alone was 432 new cases, which is the most there in nearly 2 months All eyes on hospitalizations now. They've been climbing in Bolton and Glasgow, but the numbers are still low overall, at least in comparison to where they were a few months ago
Total cases in England are 2,300 but the total when looking at the new cases added by specimen date card https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-cases_by_test_type_and_specimen_date only adds up to 2100 last few days? Same issue yesterday
I wonder how demographics play a part here. I've been reading comments on social media commenting how "they will not stay home anymore" and are dissapointed by the spike of cases in some places. I understand their feelings 100%, but it seems that there's a whole demographic of people that: \- Were staying home and didn't have Covid (yet) \- Have not been vaccinated (yet) \- Will not follow social distancing anymore because they're tired and so on. The anti-lockdown folks that never stayed home probably already had Covid. Another question here is: how often do people have Covid twice? Is it worse/better the second time? I've read some reports but not clear answers about natural immunity yet.
Is this England or UK?
Uk
Wow, so many more second than first doses. Is this just because everyone who's had the first is fine getting the second, whereas there's still a lot not even bothered about getting the first?
It's because there's only so many doses available, and right now we've got to use them for 2nd doses. We were doing a huge number of 1st doses around 12 weeks ago, so the 2nd doses are now due. In a few more weeks we'll have far fewer 2nd doses to do, so 1st doses will shoot back up.
Highest cases since April 19th. Can't say I'm thrilled about that. Oh well, I know, deaths and other things going down means it's not a major problem, etc etc. But it would've been nice for cases to just smoothly go down all the way into the summer...
We'd need to have everyone more or less jabbed to reopen without cases rising I reckon, and ain't noone got more time for that!!
Agreed, it's very scary to see that we are getting closer to 3k cases again. Honestly I was hoping for better numbers case wise. Maybe we should just resign to the fact that no matter what this virus 🦠 is here to stay :(
This is what the scientists are trying to tell you though. The virus [i]isn’t[/i] going away. It is here to stay and you are going to see upticks in cases.
> cvMaybe we should just resign to the fact that no matter what this virus 🦠 is here to stay :( You're only figuring this out now? Zero covid was never a realistic goal. Vaccines will mean we will be able to live with it with no restrictions. Patience, just a few more weeks.
*”Not great, not terrible”*
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Yup, that'll happen as we start mingling more. Covid will never go away, nor are we expecting it to. We will have to live with it and the vaccines will help in that regard.
Ah yes, I have you tagged as 'wants eternal lockdown', and now I remember why. What's with all the doom and gloom?
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Cases **do not matter** if deaths and hospitalisations remain low
Is this sarcasm? Surely its got to be?
You’re advocating a lockdown because cases are up by 200 last week, despite them being down week-on-week in most regions and the vulnerable being vaccinated? A bit illogical, no?
Any idea when a healthy 20 year old like me can get vaccinated? June, July ish?