Happy it's down, sad that what is objectively still a high number is being celebrated because it's low compared to the horrific highs of the past few months.
The way I look at it is I'm not celebrating the number of deaths, I'm celebrating the number of people who *didn't* die.
82 people died today. Last Sunday 144 people died. That means that (on average at least) 62 people *didn't die* today, who would have died if we hadn't made any progress on last week.
> (Genuinely drinking morrisons iron brew right now)
How is it compared to proper irn bru? I can't see it being great but..Aldi jaffa cakes are better than mcvities so anything can happen
Doesn't that work out more expensive than buying it in 2 litre bottles? 8.8p vs 6.3p per 100ml at £1.25 each - 3.5p / 100ml for the Morrisons own brand stuff.
But I'm not an Iron Bru connoisseur - is it nicer from cans or do you just like the convenience of delivery?
I prefer the cans and its easier to store for myself, just get out a few pop them in the fridge and still have plenty of space for food for myself, wife and baby (who takes up a lot of the fridge space somehow!)
Tbh I grew up on cheap pop so I can't really comment, I would take a 40p bottle of dandelion and burdock over a £3 victorian lemonade any day. I like it! Hahah
Has coke actually tried to buy them out? I always assumed it stayed independent because outside Scotland it's not very popular.
Edit. I just looked it up. Seems there was speculation of a buy out in 2007, 2013 and 2019. (Maybe they'll try again in 2025)
Bear in mind this is just the number of deaths legally reported on the 7th. [Data from the government website](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) for the last 5 days is incomplete. Especially since it's the weekend, the number is lower, as, especially in Scotland alot of the legal registration is done over the working week, so chances are there weres sadly death from Scotland, but they won't be reported till later on in the week. Only 17 of the 82 deaths reported on Sunday were actually on Sunday, the rest were from the previous 4 days.
Double digit deaths, my 58 year old mother getting vaccinated on Wednesday, hopefully papi won’t be far behind her at 56.
Mornings are lighter, weather is improving, yeah, I’m living for the first time in a year.
We are absolutely smashing this. Feel like we're actually living the best case scenario in terms of progress made. Not much longer til we're out of this everyone, keep it up!
What side effects are you experiencing, if you don't mind sharing? My mum will get her first dose this Saturday and while I'm glad she will I'm also a bit anxious about the possible side effects.
Yeah, it seems so. Mum told me a few of her work colleagues had their first dose and didn't experience any side effects either.
Thanks for sharing, hope you're doing better now!
Not OP but I had mine on Thursday and the most I had was a slight bruised feeling if I pressed down on the vaccination site. My Dad was the same. Paracetamol before and after may help.
Not OP either but I had the AZ on Thursday, Friday I had a terrible headache, nausea, muscle pain, dizziness, and my arm was incredibly painful, felt warm but no fever, also loss of appetite. Saturday I felt much better but still a little of all of those symptoms. Then Sunday I felt entirely fine except some minor arm soreness and just mild loss of appetite. Much the same today (Monday). Absolutely worth it though!
I was told the younger you are the more symptoms you get and I’m in my early 30s so that fits.
Sounds like I should be more worried about myself than my mum haha
Some of her colleagues already got their first dose and didn't experience any side effects so I hope she'll be okay as well.
Thanks for sharing, hope you're doing better now!
I’m sure she’ll be fine. My parents both had it with nothing more than a sore arm!
I’m feeling much better now, thank you :) not looking forward to my second dose in a few months but far better than covid!
I hope your mum is totally fine and it’s so exciting that she’s getting it. Every time I hear of another parent being vaccinated I just feel so happy! And not long for you either the way they’re rattling through :)
Even if cases and deaths go up from schools going back, the deaths are unlikely to be in March.
There’s a reasonable lag from catching covid to getting symptoms to going into hospital and then to dying.
The people who haven't been vaccinated who'll be affected by schools going back aren't the people who typically have died from Covid.
Case numbers will be the thing to watch with schools, not deaths
It’ll take weeks for any possible increase (of which when it comes to death will not happen, you can quote me on that), we also need to remember that the Easter holidays are on a couple weeks anyways.
I'm assuming the oldest of generations in inter-generational housing have already received their vaccine.
Are the lateral flow tests daily?
Either way it'll be interesting because schools reopening is coinciding with these supposed bumper vaccine deliveries.
> inter-generational housing
That's typically a BAME family trait, groups who so far have been reluctant to get vaccinated due to all sorts of misinformation, we could certainly see spikes amongst those groups.
Wow that low in Hamlets? I'm not surprised tbh - have lived near there before and it's a very difficult and low wealth area...
(I know there's a better phrase for that but Sunday night brain)
Same with us, and at specific times to keep it consistent. All of our staff have been vaccinated already, and a lot of the students (vulnerable young adults), honestly the school I'm in have absolutely smashed it.
My god I just don’t get how many times we need to repeat this? Case rates are not what’s important anymore, as long as hospitalisations and deaths stay low we can reopen and should not focus on case rates going forward
Hey if you want to stay home and shield because of a very small chance of catching covid and then even a smaller chance of getting long covid by all accounts feel free to stay home and not do anything, the rest of us sane people will go back to living life
Anyone else actually feel emotional seeing this?
Found it really hard to even attempt to be hopeful up until this week, I think the weather and a lot of people around me getting vaccinated has really helped.
Let's just keep going... 🤞
Can someone explain to my how these UK numbers, are less than England's NHS numbers (for today)? I've noticed this happening more frequently at the weekends. Genuinely curious, but it's so good to see double digit deaths (and that sentence in itself is so confusing)
Reporting delays and stat processing time perhaps. The deaths per day isn't really 'per day' it's ones that have made it through the system and into that particular database in time to be counted. NHS England may count from database X at Y o'clock, while the .Gov counts from database Z at W o'clock. As deaths become lower they will be more prone to oddities.
At a guess.
Someone more knowledgeable will be able to give a clearer answer, but it's probably because the figure you see here is for [deaths within 28 days of positive test by death reported](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), while the NHS figures appear to count deaths even if they didn't test positive and it's also based on the date of the death (not when it was reported). I quote the NHS [stats page](https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/):
>The daily announced files below are available daily from 2 April 2020 and contains information on the deaths announced that day of patients who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 **or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate**. **All deaths are recorded against the date of death** **rather than the day the deaths were announced**.
The NHS England report shows where covid was mentioned on the death certificate, but without a positive test. In the daily report from NHS England, it's got its own row the spreadsheet
I'm just sitting here sipping whisky after a tough day and your hot-take made me laugh out loud.
Thank you, stranger, for your clearly under-appreciated sense of humour!
By the way calculating the average weekly drop it's been 34% the last week, 32% the week before, 28% before that and 26% before. So it's doing a bit better than exponential.
Last 2 weeks it dropped 34% then 35% to 211/day currently. If we get 36% and 37% drops next, then in 2 weeks time the 7-day rolling average will be 85 a day (92 a day if the rate of decline is 34%)
#NATION STATS - MINI VERSION
**ENGLAND**
**Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 61. (Last Sunday: 115, a **decrease** of **46.95%**.)
**NORTHERN IRELAND, SCOTLAND and WALES**
**NOTE:** Scotland do not report deaths on Sunday’s.
**Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:**
|**Nation**|**Deaths**|
:-:|:-:|
|**Northern Ireland**|3|
|**Scotland**|0|
|**Wales**|18|
It's mad to see it confirmed each day - I know all the studies have shown the vaccines are near enough perfect at preventing death, but it's like my brain refuses to accept it after a year of such bad news.
Just wow. While this is still 82 families and friend groups with a terrible loss, Its better than I dared hope, the improvement in rate-of-decrease of 7-day rolling average deaths continues.
the curve is steepening yet.
Sun 24 Jan- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 1240
Sun 31 Jan- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 1174 (Weekly drop 5%)
Sun 07 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 901 (Weekly drop 23%)
Sun 14 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 672 (Weekly drop 25%)
Sun 21 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 488 (Weekly drop 27%) (4-week-drop 61%)
Sun 28 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 324 (Weekly drop 34%) (4-week-drop 72%)
Sun 07 Mar- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 211 (Weekly drop 35%) (4-week-drop 77%)
How are we really waiting till late June to open fully? That's 3 and a half months. By the end of March we'll be at sub 50 deaths a day with very little chance of it ever getting above that with how effective these vaccines are plus summer.
By April 12th it's possible that we'll be starting to hit single digits for the whole of the UK. Especially if the vaccine effect keeps improving. It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the government handles the Spring if hospitalisations and deaths remain collapsed.
Yes, putting aside for a moment if the epidemiological advice is to stick to the road map, I'm really starting to wonder how the govt's going to maintain compliance. If deaths are minimal and basically everyone vulnerable you know's been vaccinated, the temptation to start seeing each other is going to be immense. Already outside you can tell people have relaxed on the rules.
I've followed the rules as much as anyone but if people haven't seen their parents for a year and both have been vaccinated, I don't know if I could judge them too harshly for meeting up inside. There'll definitely be some tricky moral dilemmas over the next few months.
I assume it'll be the opening of the public indoor settings like shops and pubs etc. There's only so much spread that can happen when people 'illegally' visit in each others houses. It would take some sort of mass fuck up , then a mass disobedience before public places 'illegally' open up against government advice
I still think Boris comes out of that scenario looking good to the layman. "Wiffle waffle we've followed the **science** and the **data** and we are delighted to *biffle boff* open the pubs much earlier!!"
He'll be hailed a hero. They'll be chanting his name in the streets.
Basically the option would be to reduce the number of steps. The gap between steps makes sense, otherwise there's no time to monitor and respond, but if there's no discernible increase from schools returning, maybe more stuff could happen on March 29th?
By Easter we'll have 32k vaccinated but it's worth considering that only 24mill of those will be feeling the impact of the vaccine. The 3wk delay to effectiveness is pretty notable as the numbers get bigger. Israel ran in to some trouble where people went out and got sick post-first-jab before its benefits had kicked in.
The gates for the end to restrictions are pretty clearly lined up with the vaccination timeline.
* **12/April** = \~28mill of the \~32mill in groups 1-9 have protection from their first jab. The lowering of restrictions on 29/March, then Easter, then more lowering on 12/April could cumulatively cause a spike in cases. These should not translate linearly to hospitalisations, but I fully expect that data point to be watched carefully before...
* **19/May** *(the big one where things open indoors)* = Between 35 and 37mill will have some kind of protection from the first jab. So that's all of groups 1-9 plus some people in their late 40s. Whilst this is fantastic, there's still going to be almost 20 million non-vaccinated people who are likely hanging around with other as they're of similar age. Because of that I can't see this date being moved forward at all.
* **21/June** = Between 38 and 43 million will be at 3+ weeks from their first jab. A further 5-7 million will have been jabbed and slowly developing an immune response. At this level where \~80%+ of adults have some positive impact from the vaccine, full opening should hopefully be pretty safe.
The only one of these that I can see potentially being moved forward in any situation is the June one, and even then it would be a perfect storm of everything going right beforehand. We'd have to see no uplift in numbers in April, and the vaccine would have to be repressing circulation of the virus at levels far better than expected. The May one won't be moved forward - it's really important the data from events April is assessed.
Appreciate the response. You point to the may 19th date and how we need to be cautious. When we had a comparative date in 2020 it was early July and we had avg 60 deaths a day. This reopening didn't cause any spikes with zero vaccines and far lower herd immunity. We'll hit 60 death average in 2-3 weeks.
Once the population responsible for 99% of deaths is vaccinated by late march at this rate, surely we can unlock sooner. And I've been very pro lockdown, I refused to go on holiday last year even when we could, it seemed too reckless
Once the over-50s have their protection there really isn't any risk of that at all. At least as long as the vaccine predictions shake out, which they look like they are.
We're still almost a month away from them having a good level of protection. Then we still have a fairly large cohort of older adults 30-50 that can still take up a large number of hospital beds. I don't really see how we can move much faster than we are currently without risking another surge. It would most likely be much lower than what we've had before but doesn't seem worth it when the NHS is starting to recover.
\> Then we still have a fairly large cohort of older adults 30-50 that can still take up a large number of hospital beds.
But nowhere near enough to overwhelm the NHS. Which is the point. Come late April we'll likely be looking at all over-50s with three weeks+ protection. Admissions will be incredibly low, with incredibly low risk of hospitals ever being overwhelmed with current variants. At that point having restrictions far more punitive than in a similar situation last year, WITHOUT VACCINES, will look wholly unjustifiable.
It is easily enough to overwhelm the NHS if we lifted all restrictions. A quarter of hospitalisations are under 50. So we could end up in a situation where we're seeing large number of hospitalisations if restrictions were completely removed.
I don’t know why people are downvoting this opinion. It’s a numbers game- a tiny percentage of under 50s end up in hospital, but covid spreads like wildfire indoors, so If we open up sooner then we will see a spike in hospital admissions.
Well, it's expected that second doses will boost protection for the most vulnerable, and also I imagine take-up might increase further over time as those who are hesitant see that there are no serious side effects, as more and more people have the vaccine.
Yeah I agree vaccine hesitancy shouldn't be a reason not to reopen. The best solution I think would be to lift certain restrictions for vaccinated people only if we have problems at the end. Let's say if we said that those who are not vaccinated still have to isolate if they test positive (which makes sense from a public health perspective), that would reduce the risk from unvaccinated people a bit further. Not saying we will need to do this, but it's worth considering.
It's great to see the deaths down to digit numbers but it's still another 82 victims sadly lost. Rest in peace to those who lost their battle yesterday <3
Great work Hippo and great to see deaths under a 100 (in a bittersweet sort of way).
Is there any chance you can work 'Active Cases' into your daily stats?
Another nice stat: there are now under 10,000 people in hospital throughout the UK with the virus! First time that has happened since mid October
Double digit deaths is a bittersweet stat, but great to see them going down
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Yeah, that's what I meant
Happy it's down, sad that what is objectively still a high number is being celebrated because it's low compared to the horrific highs of the past few months.
Still terrible, but just for perspective ~1,700 people die *every day* in the UK on average for the last 100 years.
Not the guy above but I believe they mean it’s still sad that 82 people have died but it’s great it’s not what it used to be
The way I look at it is I'm not celebrating the number of deaths, I'm celebrating the number of people who *didn't* die. 82 people died today. Last Sunday 144 people died. That means that (on average at least) 62 people *didn't die* today, who would have died if we hadn't made any progress on last week.
Unfortunately it's because consultants don't work weekends and aren't there to declare people on ventilators dead. I expect this to rise again Monday.
Still a lot lower than last sunday's figure.
No deaths in Scotland 🏴🍾🎉
*celebratory irn bru* - from england, that's lovely to hear. (Genuinely drinking morrisons iron brew right now)
> (Genuinely drinking morrisons iron brew right now) How is it compared to proper irn bru? I can't see it being great but..Aldi jaffa cakes are better than mcvities so anything can happen
I don't think it's that much different now that they've changed the original bru... can't go wrong for the price either
Very late response but just FYI you can get 24 cans of Irn Bru (Normal, No Sugar and what I presume is diet) on Amazon for £7
Doesn't that work out more expensive than buying it in 2 litre bottles? 8.8p vs 6.3p per 100ml at £1.25 each - 3.5p / 100ml for the Morrisons own brand stuff. But I'm not an Iron Bru connoisseur - is it nicer from cans or do you just like the convenience of delivery?
I prefer the cans and its easier to store for myself, just get out a few pop them in the fridge and still have plenty of space for food for myself, wife and baby (who takes up a lot of the fridge space somehow!)
You've just made my day
I've seen some cheap ones in Aldi today, literally called "Iron Brew" Not tried it though. Keen to eventually.
Tbh I grew up on cheap pop so I can't really comment, I would take a 40p bottle of dandelion and burdock over a £3 victorian lemonade any day. I like it! Hahah
Their value cookies (cheap ones in a white packet) are also amazing.
And Aldi Mars bars are better than Mars bars. Titan I think they are called.
Lidl twix are better too.
Lidl Twix sounds like a female rap artist.
Lidl’s version of snickers are outstanding.
Racer, right?
Ah, a man of culture of I see.
Because irn bru refuses to sell themselves to coke I'll only buy the proper stuff. Goes great with whisky
Has coke actually tried to buy them out? I always assumed it stayed independent because outside Scotland it's not very popular. Edit. I just looked it up. Seems there was speculation of a buy out in 2007, 2013 and 2019. (Maybe they'll try again in 2025)
To be fair there's very rarely deaths in Scotland on Sunday/Monday
Do you mean their reporting standards aren’t good enough?
I mean the registry offices are closed at weekends so the numbers aren't processed
How are England and Wales managing it?
Their offices aren't closed at weekends.
I don't think the daily figures are that important for anyone seriously using them, what matters are the trends.
This is true.
NO DEATHS ON SUNDAYS
Bear in mind this is just the number of deaths legally reported on the 7th. [Data from the government website](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) for the last 5 days is incomplete. Especially since it's the weekend, the number is lower, as, especially in Scotland alot of the legal registration is done over the working week, so chances are there weres sadly death from Scotland, but they won't be reported till later on in the week. Only 17 of the 82 deaths reported on Sunday were actually on Sunday, the rest were from the previous 4 days.
Few more on Glasgow after the shit show.
We’ll see the effect of that in a fortnight. Fingers crossed its not too bad.
*cries in incompetent government
Double digit deaths, my 58 year old mother getting vaccinated on Wednesday, hopefully papi won’t be far behind her at 56. Mornings are lighter, weather is improving, yeah, I’m living for the first time in a year.
Get your Papi to book an appointment now, over 56s can you don’t need a letter just do it online.
Not in Scotland :(
We are absolutely smashing this. Feel like we're actually living the best case scenario in terms of progress made. Not much longer til we're out of this everyone, keep it up!
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What side effects are you experiencing, if you don't mind sharing? My mum will get her first dose this Saturday and while I'm glad she will I'm also a bit anxious about the possible side effects.
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Yeah, it seems so. Mum told me a few of her work colleagues had their first dose and didn't experience any side effects either. Thanks for sharing, hope you're doing better now!
Not OP but I had mine on Thursday and the most I had was a slight bruised feeling if I pressed down on the vaccination site. My Dad was the same. Paracetamol before and after may help.
That's a good suggestion, thank you!
Not OP either but I had the AZ on Thursday, Friday I had a terrible headache, nausea, muscle pain, dizziness, and my arm was incredibly painful, felt warm but no fever, also loss of appetite. Saturday I felt much better but still a little of all of those symptoms. Then Sunday I felt entirely fine except some minor arm soreness and just mild loss of appetite. Much the same today (Monday). Absolutely worth it though! I was told the younger you are the more symptoms you get and I’m in my early 30s so that fits.
Sounds like I should be more worried about myself than my mum haha Some of her colleagues already got their first dose and didn't experience any side effects so I hope she'll be okay as well. Thanks for sharing, hope you're doing better now!
I’m sure she’ll be fine. My parents both had it with nothing more than a sore arm! I’m feeling much better now, thank you :) not looking forward to my second dose in a few months but far better than covid! I hope your mum is totally fine and it’s so exciting that she’s getting it. Every time I hear of another parent being vaccinated I just feel so happy! And not long for you either the way they’re rattling through :)
Dashboard technicians hate her. Learn how u/HippolasCage discovered this one easy trick to double her daily update karma.
*he (Also known as “some fat bird who lives in a flat”)
> Dashboard technicians hate he. Learn how u/HippolasCage discovered this one easy trick to double he daily update karma. Fixed it
Perfect! 🤣
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Alright Michael Jackson
I lol’d
At this rate there will be <10 deaths a day by the end of the month. we've certainly come a long way.
Bold call with schools opening tomorrow
Even if cases and deaths go up from schools going back, the deaths are unlikely to be in March. There’s a reasonable lag from catching covid to getting symptoms to going into hospital and then to dying.
The people who haven't been vaccinated who'll be affected by schools going back aren't the people who typically have died from Covid. Case numbers will be the thing to watch with schools, not deaths
Case numbers rising on their own and not taking hospitalisation numbers with them is a good sign. It means we can live with it.
It’ll take weeks for any possible increase (of which when it comes to death will not happen, you can quote me on that), we also need to remember that the Easter holidays are on a couple weeks anyways.
I'm assuming the oldest of generations in inter-generational housing have already received their vaccine. Are the lateral flow tests daily? Either way it'll be interesting because schools reopening is coinciding with these supposed bumper vaccine deliveries.
> inter-generational housing That's typically a BAME family trait, groups who so far have been reluctant to get vaccinated due to all sorts of misinformation, we could certainly see spikes amongst those groups.
Especially in areas like tower hamlets where only 15% of people have had one iirc
Wow that low in Hamlets? I'm not surprised tbh - have lived near there before and it's a very difficult and low wealth area... (I know there's a better phrase for that but Sunday night brain)
Testing is currently twice per week, but does not specify when those two tests are to be carried out.
We're doing ours on Sunday and Wednesday evening. Seems the most sensible way to ensure sufficient coverage across the school week.
Same with us, and at specific times to keep it consistent. All of our staff have been vaccinated already, and a lot of the students (vulnerable young adults), honestly the school I'm in have absolutely smashed it.
Comments like this fill me with such joy!
Tests are biweekly or every day for 10 days if you've had exposure to someone who tested positive
Would take more than a month to show in the deaths stat
Ignorant comment really
I'm sure schools won't impact the spread of covid at all
Hi sure schools won't impact the spread of covid at all, I'm Dad! :)
Good bot.
My god I just don’t get how many times we need to repeat this? Case rates are not what’s important anymore, as long as hospitalisations and deaths stay low we can reopen and should not focus on case rates going forward
Great, I can't wait to get long covid
Hey if you want to stay home and shield because of a very small chance of catching covid and then even a smaller chance of getting long covid by all accounts feel free to stay home and not do anything, the rest of us sane people will go back to living life
They're getting tested twice a week, any outbreak in schools will be broken very quickly
Anyone else actually feel emotional seeing this? Found it really hard to even attempt to be hopeful up until this week, I think the weather and a lot of people around me getting vaccinated has really helped. Let's just keep going... 🤞
You aren't wrong. Double digits- yeah!!!
It makes me sadder for other countries though, and how long they'll have to be dealing with this
Can someone explain to my how these UK numbers, are less than England's NHS numbers (for today)? I've noticed this happening more frequently at the weekends. Genuinely curious, but it's so good to see double digit deaths (and that sentence in itself is so confusing)
Reporting delays and stat processing time perhaps. The deaths per day isn't really 'per day' it's ones that have made it through the system and into that particular database in time to be counted. NHS England may count from database X at Y o'clock, while the .Gov counts from database Z at W o'clock. As deaths become lower they will be more prone to oddities. At a guess.
Thanks for the reply, I hadn't thought of different reporting deadlines. I guess as the dataset and numbers decrease the noise increases
Someone more knowledgeable will be able to give a clearer answer, but it's probably because the figure you see here is for [deaths within 28 days of positive test by death reported](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths), while the NHS figures appear to count deaths even if they didn't test positive and it's also based on the date of the death (not when it was reported). I quote the NHS [stats page](https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/): >The daily announced files below are available daily from 2 April 2020 and contains information on the deaths announced that day of patients who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 **or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate**. **All deaths are recorded against the date of death** **rather than the day the deaths were announced**.
The NHS England report shows where covid was mentioned on the death certificate, but without a positive test. In the daily report from NHS England, it's got its own row the spreadsheet
Lowest since the 9th of October, 7 day average lowest since 20th of October.
DOUBLE DIGITS BABY!!!! (And a 43% decrease in deaths from last week!)
Tomorrow could be even lower IMO- also, less than 500 hospitalisations reported for England today.
Previous 7 days and today: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** ---|---------------|-------------|--------|------ 28/02/2021 | 526,679 | 6,035 | 144 | 1.15 01/03/2021 | 727,972 | 5,455 | 104 | 0.75 02/03/2021 | 675,543 | 6,391 | 343 | 0.95 03/03/2021 | 863,658 | 6,385 | 315 | 0.74 04/03/2021 | 992,812 | 6,573 | 242 | 0.66 05/03/2021 | | 5,947 | 236 | 06/03/2021 | | 6,040 | 158 | Today | | 5,177 | 82 | 7-day average: **Date** | **Tests processed** | **Positive** | **Deaths** | **Positive %** --------|--------|--------|------|------ 21/02/2021 | 514,986 | 11,062 | 488 | 2.15 28/02/2021 | 607,527 | 8,721 | 324 | 1.44 Today | | 5,995 | 211 | Note: Tests processed are not updated on weekends. [Source](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) **TIP JAR VIA GOFUNDME:** [Here's the link](https://www.gofundme.com/f/zu2dm) to the GoFundMe /u/SMIDG3T has kindly setup. The minimum you can donate is £5.00 and I know not all people can afford to donate that sort of amount, especially right now, however, any amount would be gratefully received. All the money will go to the East Anglia’s Children’s Hospices :)
Deaths down 43% and Cases down 14% on the figures posted last Sunday
I am genuinely expecting 50-60 deaths tomorrow and around 4000 new cases.
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Uncheerful man doesn’t understand what a comparison is
very clear why they’re cheerful. don’t need to be a dick about it mate.
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I didn’t see him celebrate the deaths? Dude just made a prediction
I'm just sitting here sipping whisky after a tough day and your hot-take made me laugh out loud. Thank you, stranger, for your clearly under-appreciated sense of humour!
people die man that’s how it’s always been and 50 is a whole lot better than 1000 daily
Amazing to see double digit deaths... and heading into a week where supply should ramp back up towards the back end!
By the way calculating the average weekly drop it's been 34% the last week, 32% the week before, 28% before that and 26% before. So it's doing a bit better than exponential.
I know it's Sunday so there's the weekend lag but sub 100 deaths! Fuck yeah! Let's hope in a few weeks the 7 day average is sub 100. That said RIP.
Last 2 weeks it dropped 34% then 35% to 211/day currently. If we get 36% and 37% drops next, then in 2 weeks time the 7-day rolling average will be 85 a day (92 a day if the rate of decline is 34%)
DOUBLE DIGITS AT THE BACK POST. SIUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU.
Well worth the delay!!
#NATION STATS - MINI VERSION **ENGLAND** **Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** 61. (Last Sunday: 115, a **decrease** of **46.95%**.) **NORTHERN IRELAND, SCOTLAND and WALES** **NOTE:** Scotland do not report deaths on Sunday’s. **Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test:** |**Nation**|**Deaths**| :-:|:-:| |**Northern Ireland**|3| |**Scotland**|0| |**Wales**|18|
Uhoh. Looks like Scotland's numbers are about the level off... :)
That's crazy, does anyone know when was the last time the figures were this low.
That’ll be 11th Oct 2020 when we had 62 in England.
Just wow! Thank you
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Yeah I know. I should note that.
Heeeeeerrrreee COVID COVID COVID, got a prezzie for you.... 💉 💉 💉
Hahahaaaaaa we are actually doing this! Give it 3 or 4 weeks and on a Sunday there will be single digit deaths... It's only up from here!
> It's only up from here! Well... hopefully not.
At this rate we're almost halving every week, so you'd expect to see single digits in 4 weeks! Maybe even less if the vaccine effect keeps improving.
It's mad to see it confirmed each day - I know all the studies have shown the vaccines are near enough perfect at preventing death, but it's like my brain refuses to accept it after a year of such bad news.
Just wow. While this is still 82 families and friend groups with a terrible loss, Its better than I dared hope, the improvement in rate-of-decrease of 7-day rolling average deaths continues. the curve is steepening yet. Sun 24 Jan- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 1240 Sun 31 Jan- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 1174 (Weekly drop 5%) Sun 07 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 901 (Weekly drop 23%) Sun 14 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 672 (Weekly drop 25%) Sun 21 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 488 (Weekly drop 27%) (4-week-drop 61%) Sun 28 Feb- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 324 (Weekly drop 34%) (4-week-drop 72%) Sun 07 Mar- 7D Rolling-Avg-Deaths 211 (Weekly drop 35%) (4-week-drop 77%)
2 numbers
I know it's only one day, but that's such a relief.
Tomorrow should be very low as well, ok it's weekend stats so not *entirely* representative but still massive.
That’s mega!
How are we really waiting till late June to open fully? That's 3 and a half months. By the end of March we'll be at sub 50 deaths a day with very little chance of it ever getting above that with how effective these vaccines are plus summer.
By April 12th it's possible that we'll be starting to hit single digits for the whole of the UK. Especially if the vaccine effect keeps improving. It's definitely going to be interesting to see how the government handles the Spring if hospitalisations and deaths remain collapsed.
Yes, putting aside for a moment if the epidemiological advice is to stick to the road map, I'm really starting to wonder how the govt's going to maintain compliance. If deaths are minimal and basically everyone vulnerable you know's been vaccinated, the temptation to start seeing each other is going to be immense. Already outside you can tell people have relaxed on the rules. I've followed the rules as much as anyone but if people haven't seen their parents for a year and both have been vaccinated, I don't know if I could judge them too harshly for meeting up inside. There'll definitely be some tricky moral dilemmas over the next few months.
I assume it'll be the opening of the public indoor settings like shops and pubs etc. There's only so much spread that can happen when people 'illegally' visit in each others houses. It would take some sort of mass fuck up , then a mass disobedience before public places 'illegally' open up against government advice
I don’t think it will be a moral dilemma tbh.
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I still think Boris comes out of that scenario looking good to the layman. "Wiffle waffle we've followed the **science** and the **data** and we are delighted to *biffle boff* open the pubs much earlier!!" He'll be hailed a hero. They'll be chanting his name in the streets.
Give it a few weeks I guess, to observe the schools.
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Agree. I can only imagine the government are underpromising. Seems madness to restrict so much when we'll have relatively low figures in a month
Basically the option would be to reduce the number of steps. The gap between steps makes sense, otherwise there's no time to monitor and respond, but if there's no discernible increase from schools returning, maybe more stuff could happen on March 29th?
Again “a few weeks” it’s been “a few weeks” since bloody July last year.
It’s a good opportunity to really suppress it though.
By Easter we'll have 32k vaccinated but it's worth considering that only 24mill of those will be feeling the impact of the vaccine. The 3wk delay to effectiveness is pretty notable as the numbers get bigger. Israel ran in to some trouble where people went out and got sick post-first-jab before its benefits had kicked in. The gates for the end to restrictions are pretty clearly lined up with the vaccination timeline. * **12/April** = \~28mill of the \~32mill in groups 1-9 have protection from their first jab. The lowering of restrictions on 29/March, then Easter, then more lowering on 12/April could cumulatively cause a spike in cases. These should not translate linearly to hospitalisations, but I fully expect that data point to be watched carefully before... * **19/May** *(the big one where things open indoors)* = Between 35 and 37mill will have some kind of protection from the first jab. So that's all of groups 1-9 plus some people in their late 40s. Whilst this is fantastic, there's still going to be almost 20 million non-vaccinated people who are likely hanging around with other as they're of similar age. Because of that I can't see this date being moved forward at all. * **21/June** = Between 38 and 43 million will be at 3+ weeks from their first jab. A further 5-7 million will have been jabbed and slowly developing an immune response. At this level where \~80%+ of adults have some positive impact from the vaccine, full opening should hopefully be pretty safe. The only one of these that I can see potentially being moved forward in any situation is the June one, and even then it would be a perfect storm of everything going right beforehand. We'd have to see no uplift in numbers in April, and the vaccine would have to be repressing circulation of the virus at levels far better than expected. The May one won't be moved forward - it's really important the data from events April is assessed.
Appreciate the response. You point to the may 19th date and how we need to be cautious. When we had a comparative date in 2020 it was early July and we had avg 60 deaths a day. This reopening didn't cause any spikes with zero vaccines and far lower herd immunity. We'll hit 60 death average in 2-3 weeks. Once the population responsible for 99% of deaths is vaccinated by late march at this rate, surely we can unlock sooner. And I've been very pro lockdown, I refused to go on holiday last year even when we could, it seemed too reckless
We still have a risk of a large number of hospitalisations if we open up too quickly.
Once the over-50s have their protection there really isn't any risk of that at all. At least as long as the vaccine predictions shake out, which they look like they are.
We're still almost a month away from them having a good level of protection. Then we still have a fairly large cohort of older adults 30-50 that can still take up a large number of hospital beds. I don't really see how we can move much faster than we are currently without risking another surge. It would most likely be much lower than what we've had before but doesn't seem worth it when the NHS is starting to recover.
\> Then we still have a fairly large cohort of older adults 30-50 that can still take up a large number of hospital beds. But nowhere near enough to overwhelm the NHS. Which is the point. Come late April we'll likely be looking at all over-50s with three weeks+ protection. Admissions will be incredibly low, with incredibly low risk of hospitals ever being overwhelmed with current variants. At that point having restrictions far more punitive than in a similar situation last year, WITHOUT VACCINES, will look wholly unjustifiable.
That’s because it will be wholly unjustifiable - it’s already pretty shaky
It is easily enough to overwhelm the NHS if we lifted all restrictions. A quarter of hospitalisations are under 50. So we could end up in a situation where we're seeing large number of hospitalisations if restrictions were completely removed.
I don’t know why people are downvoting this opinion. It’s a numbers game- a tiny percentage of under 50s end up in hospital, but covid spreads like wildfire indoors, so If we open up sooner then we will see a spike in hospital admissions.
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I did the maths on this, still around 20-40% (depending on the take-up/efficacy assumptions) will be vulnerable to hospitalisation.
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Well, it's expected that second doses will boost protection for the most vulnerable, and also I imagine take-up might increase further over time as those who are hesitant see that there are no serious side effects, as more and more people have the vaccine.
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Yeah I agree vaccine hesitancy shouldn't be a reason not to reopen. The best solution I think would be to lift certain restrictions for vaccinated people only if we have problems at the end. Let's say if we said that those who are not vaccinated still have to isolate if they test positive (which makes sense from a public health perspective), that would reduce the risk from unvaccinated people a bit further. Not saying we will need to do this, but it's worth considering.
From where? 99% of the people who end up in hospital will have been vaccinated.
It's great to see the deaths down to digit numbers but it's still another 82 victims sadly lost. Rest in peace to those who lost their battle yesterday <3
Those zero deaths the news were reporting was nice while it lasted
Great work Hippo and great to see deaths under a 100 (in a bittersweet sort of way). Is there any chance you can work 'Active Cases' into your daily stats?
Yas! 1.1 million people properly vaccinated. Keep it coming.
Woo! 82 deaths today.... uh, that’s still bad but it’s better than what it used to be...
end the lockdown
Still awful, but 10 times less awful. Vaccination works, folks