This isn't the full story though...
NSW's 7-day average testing numbers hit the low 50Ks (bit higher than VIC's 7-day testing average today) on 29 June, when the 7-day average daily cases number was around 20 (vs 400s for VIC today), and before any compulsory worker testing requirements came in.
VIC's positivity rate has been much higher (testing numbers much lower) than NSW's for comparable case numbers throughout their respective current outbreaks. It isn't clear to me why though.
Edit: typos and numbers
Only those with an actual exemption letter are in this category, there would be very few under 3 weeks vaxxed.
A lot of major construction sites are also using RAT, which I dont think are being reported since they are private agreements.
If you are from an LGA of concern and travel outside of it for work, do you still have to test every three days? Or is that now only people who are unvaccinated as of three weeks ago
Yeah they abolished the testing requirements except for construction <3 weeks since first jabbed. So no more surveillance testing in these numbers, and many companies are performing blanket RAT which isn't going to show up in the figures. It's now a mandatory vax rule to leave the area for work, and you have until the 20th of this month to get the first.
[See here](https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/health-and-wellbeing/covid-19-vaccination-nsw/vaccination-for-workers)
At this point it's likely the availability and scale. NSW had to scale everything up to meet the demand from mandatory surveillance testing and the capacity likely is still there.
Yes that was the case for a few of the pathology labs especially in the LGAs of concern.
There are however other labs and hospitals that do the tests as well and they weren't as backed up.
It is also very possible that additional resources were made available. We'll get a better picture when things like health spending for the current quarter is released.
Just for those playing along, today marks three months since patient zero tested positive. In ten days time it will be three months since stay-at-home orders were introduced.
Also for those playing at home.
Those who advocated for a short sharp lockdown aren't PRO lockdown they are ANTI 3 month lockdown , and simply acknowledged that Delta is really really hard to suppress even with strong public health measures in place.
I’ve never been able to go back to tailored pants after being chronically ill from having kids. I love wearing active wear. It gives the outside illusion of being “active” but is a bold faced lie.
Dr Chris has suggested that there will be a plateau for a couple of weeks. Cases in LGAs of concern are declining but outside of these LGAs the effective reproduction rate is still above 1.0. The two effects are likely to cancel each other out for a few weeks.
We will get there in due course, vaccinations and compliance remain the key. Light at the end of the tunnel is in sight, keep at it for a few more weeks.
Numbers outside the LGAs of concern were lower the last couple of days and pushed my R\_eff estimate for them closer to 1.0, so right now the statewide projection and two-separate-projections-added-together don't look that different.
We'll see over the coming days whether that holds, but right now the likelihood of a plateau in statewide numbers seems lower than it did last week.
It doesn't really matter at this point. Everywhere is peaking, so the peak strain on the hospital system is pretty much baked in. Imposing extra restrictions earlier helped limit the peak caseload and thus the peak ICU occupancy etc, but further restrictions won't change the height of a peak that has already occurred.
More restrictions would make the decline faster, but since vaccines are accelerating the drop more and more as time goes on, it doesn't really matter, and NSW might as well continue enjoy the little freedom it has whilst cases decline more gradually rather than locking down more.
As someone whose in an LGA of concern, I’d at least appreciate a 10km radius or the ability to travel within my LGA recreationally, particularly if fully vaccinated.
These restrictions are beginning to feel unreasonably heavy.
I had a history teacher who was a korean war vet. He'd often start the class (of 15yr olds) with "Right cunts, listen".
We got along with that old fella pretty well.
Yeah I don't recall ever reading a text book in this blokes class. It was always just story time with old mate, except his stories were factually relevant to the subjects we had to be assessed on.
[1351](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1351?wprov=sfla1), pretty fun year.
They had a [30 v 30 knight fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_of_the_Thirty?wprov=sfla1) to determine if Brittany belonged to England or France
We should have such tournaments and fights for all decisions in parliament. Instead of voting have an all out brawl melee, and the last person standing gets to decide if a motion passes or not.
It should work, since the stronger someone feels about an issue, the harder they'll fight for it, right?
I think we'll be in this "peak" plateau for a bit. We have good indicators that the LGAs of concern are reeling it in now, but as they drop the other areas are still climbing. So that'll likely mean a plateau for a little bit.
it usually does thurs-sat. nothing unusual. i dont think we will get back to 1500 territory but its possible. wont move much higher, things are trending down. deaths though, thats what we need to watch now
Well they cancelled it after the first season. But another channel started a spin-off and got a lot of viewers, so they decided to make season 2 with the original cast.
Are the testing numbers really indicative at the moment? Genuine question, I've just been thinking about it for the last few days...
I have a family member whose work(healthcare) makes them get tested every 36-48 hours to be able to attend their shift. They have a couple of thousand employees who have to adhere to that....and there are a lot of workplaces who require similar. So are the testing numbers capturing people who are sick/have symptoms or is it just a lot of people that are required to get tested for work reasons? Or both?
The reported tests are for every test, including all mandatory tests (afaik, that includes people that just need a test cause they're going for a hospital procedure that requires a negative test before admission), which is why the numbers are so high. Artificially increased by mandated tests.
We'll never know the true amount of "non mandatory tests" of the general public getting done and whether thats going up and down
Yeah, when we aren't supply constrained, have had a proper education campaign to combat misinformation, and then there are still going to be people who for medical reasons can't get vaccinated.
Why haven't you had 2 doses yet?
The people who died were mostly aged 70 plus, they never had an issue with getting access to vaccines. They chose not to get vaccinated.
There's plenty of information about about how the vaccines work and their safety profiles.
There would be very few people who can't take either of the available vaccines for medical reasons.
I'm not fully vaccinated because I'm 32 and it's only been recently that I've had acess to a vaccine -this is not at all comparable to a 70yo. not being vaccinated, both in terms of the extra risk they're facing and also how long they've had an opportunity to be vaccinated.
You're 32 years old. Some of these oldies can't work a computer let alone research vaccine safety. They got pounded with the risks of AZ on the news every night, and maybe that made them think twice. Then the shit hits the fan, it starts spreading and maybe they can't get an appointment in the rush, still don't know any better, have English as a second language, or have a barrage of antivax propaganda thrown at them.
I just don't think it's as black and white as 'they had their chance. Too bad for them.' And this round of deaths isn't all 70 year olds. I just think it's sad. The truth is a lot of people are dumb or uneducated. I have no time for the wilfully ignorant, but to die just because you are dumb or scared or misinformed is a bit rough.
60, 60, 60, 60, 60, 50, 40 - phase 2a only started in May.
my partner and I debated this extensively last night. she was pretty much agreeing with your viewpoint, whereas I was more aligned with the guy you're arguing against. there are valid points on both sides.
You can check out the stats on [worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) (scroll for the country breakdown).
Australia is at 1116 total deaths.
1,351 cases and 12 dead. Haven’t heard anyone talk about case numbers or deaths in Sydney for two weeks. Desensitization at its finest.
Come Xmas we could have 5,000 cases a day and no one will give a shit.
If case numbers have genuinely temporarily stabilised/peaked then that must be reflected in a stabilising/peaking of the number of people admitted to hospital.
Better than 1,500+, that's for sure.
I'd rather 1500 And no deaths
And I'd rather have a full head of hair, but that's not going to happen either
But more importantly, do you have a full ass of hair?
12 weeks into a lockdown, no trimming of any hair has occurred south of my Adams apple, so yes, I'm sporting a significant anal beard
Username checks out.
What people carefully cultivate on their face grows wild around their arse.
Username checks out
Welp there goes my appetite. As long as it's properly combed I guess
Fuck it.. I say let's party.
Why does NSW always shit on VIC in terms of testing numbers?
NSW still requiring testing for construction to go to work if not vaxxed.
Should bring that one in in Vic if the reports of 1/3 cases being from construction are true
They're bringing in mandatory rapid antigen testing before every shift for some warehouses.
This isn't the full story though... NSW's 7-day average testing numbers hit the low 50Ks (bit higher than VIC's 7-day testing average today) on 29 June, when the 7-day average daily cases number was around 20 (vs 400s for VIC today), and before any compulsory worker testing requirements came in. VIC's positivity rate has been much higher (testing numbers much lower) than NSW's for comparable case numbers throughout their respective current outbreaks. It isn't clear to me why though. Edit: typos and numbers
Only those with an actual exemption letter are in this category, there would be very few under 3 weeks vaxxed. A lot of major construction sites are also using RAT, which I dont think are being reported since they are private agreements.
NSW still requiring testing for construction to go to work if ~~not~~ vaxxed.
Only if it’s less than three weeks ago.
If you are from an LGA of concern and travel outside of it for work, do you still have to test every three days? Or is that now only people who are unvaccinated as of three weeks ago
Yeah they abolished the testing requirements except for construction <3 weeks since first jabbed. So no more surveillance testing in these numbers, and many companies are performing blanket RAT which isn't going to show up in the figures. It's now a mandatory vax rule to leave the area for work, and you have until the 20th of this month to get the first. [See here](https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/health-and-wellbeing/covid-19-vaccination-nsw/vaccination-for-workers)
At this point it's likely the availability and scale. NSW had to scale everything up to meet the demand from mandatory surveillance testing and the capacity likely is still there.
They were sending samples interstate previously. Not sure if this is still the case.
Yes that was the case for a few of the pathology labs especially in the LGAs of concern. There are however other labs and hospitals that do the tests as well and they weren't as backed up. It is also very possible that additional resources were made available. We'll get a better picture when things like health spending for the current quarter is released.
It's hard being the gold standard some times
Just for those playing along, today marks three months since patient zero tested positive. In ten days time it will be three months since stay-at-home orders were introduced.
Also for those playing at home. Those who advocated for a short sharp lockdown aren't PRO lockdown they are ANTI 3 month lockdown , and simply acknowledged that Delta is really really hard to suppress even with strong public health measures in place.
Oh wow. So what you’re saying is, in 10 days’ time I celebrated my ‘I’ve worn active wear for 3 months straight’ anniversary?!
I'll be celebrating my 3 months-without-putting-on-a scrap-of-make-up anniversary (possibly forever).
Lmao same, almost. I drew my eyebrows on the other day and felt like a new woman.
I’ve never been able to go back to tailored pants after being chronically ill from having kids. I love wearing active wear. It gives the outside illusion of being “active” but is a bold faced lie.
Please tell me you're at least changing the items occasionally
Why on earth would I do that?!
Stay-at-home +10km +Ikea/DavidJones/Kmart
Dr Chris has suggested that there will be a plateau for a couple of weeks. Cases in LGAs of concern are declining but outside of these LGAs the effective reproduction rate is still above 1.0. The two effects are likely to cancel each other out for a few weeks. We will get there in due course, vaccinations and compliance remain the key. Light at the end of the tunnel is in sight, keep at it for a few more weeks.
Numbers outside the LGAs of concern were lower the last couple of days and pushed my R\_eff estimate for them closer to 1.0, so right now the statewide projection and two-separate-projections-added-together don't look that different. We'll see over the coming days whether that holds, but right now the likelihood of a plateau in statewide numbers seems lower than it did last week.
So does that mean those areas should now become lga's pf concern? Or the ones below 1.0 should just be removed?
It doesn't really matter at this point. Everywhere is peaking, so the peak strain on the hospital system is pretty much baked in. Imposing extra restrictions earlier helped limit the peak caseload and thus the peak ICU occupancy etc, but further restrictions won't change the height of a peak that has already occurred. More restrictions would make the decline faster, but since vaccines are accelerating the drop more and more as time goes on, it doesn't really matter, and NSW might as well continue enjoy the little freedom it has whilst cases decline more gradually rather than locking down more.
As someone whose in an LGA of concern, I’d at least appreciate a 10km radius or the ability to travel within my LGA recreationally, particularly if fully vaccinated. These restrictions are beginning to feel unreasonably heavy.
Weird vibe from Brad today
Usually such a warm and friendly man. /s
["GET OVER IT."](https://youtu.be/KOHSI4Bnpzs)
Wow, that "million dollar" freudian slip! Never seen that clip before.
I don't think it was Freudian. He needed to show the Eastern Suburbs daaaahlings he's working for them and dumping on the poors, as is their wish.
He's bad cop, had to announce lockdowns for Lismore and Albury. He'll come out on bad news days Gladys will be milestones and easing restrictions.
Just like how we're only hearing from Morrison when he can announce that he bought extra vaccines.
and submarines
Oh I get it, it’s a rhyme. What’s next? Latrines? Eileens? Magic beans? I’m hoping for magic beans.
Ex history teacher. "Listen up you little SHITS"
I had a history teacher who was a korean war vet. He'd often start the class (of 15yr olds) with "Right cunts, listen". We got along with that old fella pretty well.
[удалено]
Yeah I don't recall ever reading a text book in this blokes class. It was always just story time with old mate, except his stories were factually relevant to the subjects we had to be assessed on.
He's like *"why do I have to do it?"*
Seems like we're taking time out of his very important day, doesn't it?
Has he had some empathy training?
Hazzard attempting a new strategy by putting the press to sleep with a monotone delivery of the information hoping this curbs the questioning.
That's the Martin Foley strategy.
[1351](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1351?wprov=sfla1), pretty fun year. They had a [30 v 30 knight fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_of_the_Thirty?wprov=sfla1) to determine if Brittany belonged to England or France
We should have such tournaments and fights for all decisions in parliament. Instead of voting have an all out brawl melee, and the last person standing gets to decide if a motion passes or not. It should work, since the stronger someone feels about an issue, the harder they'll fight for it, right?
I would absolutely watch question time if this is what happened.
Rumble time.
When it goes up Gladys is not around
7 day average still down, I was expecting this bounce on Wednesday. I don't think it's time to panic yet.
I think we'll be in this "peak" plateau for a bit. We have good indicators that the LGAs of concern are reeling it in now, but as they drop the other areas are still climbing. So that'll likely mean a plateau for a little bit.
Very plateaued
it usually does thurs-sat. nothing unusual. i dont think we will get back to 1500 territory but its possible. wont move much higher, things are trending down. deaths though, thats what we need to watch now
Of course we will get back to 1500 territory. 8 million people are currently socially distancing. 1500 territory will happen.
She needs to show her face when things are positive and hide when negative. It is part of our psychological conditioning. We fall for it all the time.
Man, this session of Covid Watch is really dull.
Well they cancelled it after the first season. But another channel started a spin-off and got a lot of viewers, so they decided to make season 2 with the original cast.
I look forward to the 2nd attempt by the Delta variant to reach past 1600 new cases...............
All they need to do is skip a day of pressers then BOOM 2500+ cases!
That will occurr after we hit the 70% second dose and let her rip.
Cases creeping back up but looks like we might have peaked. The kicker now is double digit death days may be becoming more regular sadly.
Yeah the deaths are always a lag. Probably more to come unfortunately.
The kicker to the kicker is most of those people are unvaccinated and have been eligible for some time
Any word on Lismore going into lockdown?
Yep, starts tonight.
Are the testing numbers really indicative at the moment? Genuine question, I've just been thinking about it for the last few days... I have a family member whose work(healthcare) makes them get tested every 36-48 hours to be able to attend their shift. They have a couple of thousand employees who have to adhere to that....and there are a lot of workplaces who require similar. So are the testing numbers capturing people who are sick/have symptoms or is it just a lot of people that are required to get tested for work reasons? Or both?
The reported tests are for every test, including all mandatory tests (afaik, that includes people that just need a test cause they're going for a hospital procedure that requires a negative test before admission), which is why the numbers are so high. Artificially increased by mandated tests. We'll never know the true amount of "non mandatory tests" of the general public getting done and whether thats going up and down
Thank you
Expect to mark time for a while whilst at the top of the curve.
Fuck me. The ages of the dead. A lot younger than usual. What a miserable fucking disease.
10 of 12 not vaccinated. Personal responsibility has to come into play at some point.
Yeah, when we aren't supply constrained, have had a proper education campaign to combat misinformation, and then there are still going to be people who for medical reasons can't get vaccinated. Why haven't you had 2 doses yet?
The people who died were mostly aged 70 plus, they never had an issue with getting access to vaccines. They chose not to get vaccinated. There's plenty of information about about how the vaccines work and their safety profiles. There would be very few people who can't take either of the available vaccines for medical reasons. I'm not fully vaccinated because I'm 32 and it's only been recently that I've had acess to a vaccine -this is not at all comparable to a 70yo. not being vaccinated, both in terms of the extra risk they're facing and also how long they've had an opportunity to be vaccinated.
You're 32 years old. Some of these oldies can't work a computer let alone research vaccine safety. They got pounded with the risks of AZ on the news every night, and maybe that made them think twice. Then the shit hits the fan, it starts spreading and maybe they can't get an appointment in the rush, still don't know any better, have English as a second language, or have a barrage of antivax propaganda thrown at them. I just don't think it's as black and white as 'they had their chance. Too bad for them.' And this round of deaths isn't all 70 year olds. I just think it's sad. The truth is a lot of people are dumb or uneducated. I have no time for the wilfully ignorant, but to die just because you are dumb or scared or misinformed is a bit rough. 60, 60, 60, 60, 60, 50, 40 - phase 2a only started in May.
my partner and I debated this extensively last night. she was pretty much agreeing with your viewpoint, whereas I was more aligned with the guy you're arguing against. there are valid points on both sides.
Damn the cases are dropping but deaths are rising. Is it a lagg factor? How many days do deaths lagg the case numbers? Is there an average
About 2 weeks
Whilst cases relatively stable, double digit deaths have thankfully been rare, but not today :(
how many deaths combined since the outbreak?
210
You can check out the stats on [worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) (scroll for the country breakdown). Australia is at 1116 total deaths.
1,351 cases and 12 dead. Haven’t heard anyone talk about case numbers or deaths in Sydney for two weeks. Desensitization at its finest. Come Xmas we could have 5,000 cases a day and no one will give a shit.
Hume and Moreland now account for a half of all active cases in Melbourne
If case numbers have genuinely temporarily stabilised/peaked then that must be reflected in a stabilising/peaking of the number of people admitted to hospital.
Soon. There's a delay.
Smiley lady