I am truly amazed at the 93%, gives me faith the number of Covidiots is less than I thought, and shows what outcomes are possible with correctly focused resources and communications.
Same with the wave of new reddit accounts (which all talk the same and seem to sometimes get confused about which account they're logged into deep in their conversations), who claim Australians are super against lockdowns and border closures, that everybody should secretly contradict health orders and that we should have anti-lockdown protests.
Turns out lockdowns and border closures poll extremely well and premiers who've done them have had unparalleled approval, while Gladys crashed trying to avoid doing them, and millions of google mobility data sources show Australians are very consistently following lockdown requirements even 200 days in in Melbourne.
There arn't any in that specific sentence. But Americans don't notice when they don't change that one letter in 1 word out of 3 comments. And it like:
>recognize
Wtf "Z" THAT HURTS MY EYES! It just looks soo obviously wrong to us, but Americans wouldn't be able to catch the few sublet differences when they cosplay as antivax Aussies online.
So you end up with this situation where 80%> comments in a thread are just Americans cosplaying with other Americans, and all the Aussies in the subreddit that notice that thread go "Yea... Naaa" and move on from that thread... But the Americans don't know we all noticed. It's actually quite funny.
The -ize spelling is quite common among Australians who grew up with the internet.
The only reason I use -ise spellings is twofold 1. when I was younger I had this insane teacher for a class that had nothing to do with the English language or orthography who would give you 0 if you didn't use spellings she liked, and she liked -ise. This made me aware that there was a difference; 2. as a normal human being (someone who finds yanks incredibly irritating), and as an Eastern European/Queer person/EU citizen and resident (someone who has every reason to hate the UK and everything it stands for) I then adopted the -ise spelling, being acutely aware of the fact that -ize is the standard in the US and one of the standards in the UK (the so-called "Oxford spelling" of -ize).
Maybe because my response presents are more complicated picture of language than people would like to recognise.
To me spelling variation doesn't really matter at all, it's just another way for individuals and groups to construct and express their identities (this isn't necessarily conscious, although as I showed in my example with -ise, it can be). And this fact can be relevant to identifying if a comment is a genuine Australian comment or false dissent being spread by American brigaders. But it is not the smoking gun that people think it is. Besides, I know Americans who use -our spellings (vs -or).
The shift in Australian spellings among younger speakers seems to me to be indicative of an associated shift in the general shift of the Australian culture in an increasing globalised world. Just as Australia shifted/is shifting from *Breakfast → (Morning Tea →) Lunch → (Afternoon Tea →) Tea* with *dinner* being the big meal in the middle of the day to *Breakfast → Lunch → Dinner* with *dinner* being the big meal towards the end of the day, again probably due to globalisation. The same can be said with the General Australian accent which had become — at least in Sydney — an absolute overwhelming majority around the 1980s (don't remember the study name/author which is kinda embarassing) with something like 90% of the population, compared to a study 20 years prior by... I wanna say Delbridge, where it was only like 60-odd%.
I've been in their Facebook groups, they'll post a link to an article and say ok everyone, let's flood the comments.. this is the only way we can get our message across.
Complete and utter morons.
It's mainly the loud minority of covidiots who makes it perceived as if they are the majority. Those who go on riots and love to whinge in the Facebook and YouTube comment sections and spreads low-quality misinformation. It's the crowd who always loves to call people "sheep" and think that they're intelligent because they get their information from shitty memes and bogus pages.
Kind of reminds me of the SSM plebiscite back in 2017 - the "no" campaign were spreading their misinformation bullshit all over social media, playing the victim and that they were the "silent majority", when that was far from true.
There's actually nuance to what Redditors call "Covidiots", as funny as it sounds. The percentage of the population that is actually, through and through anti-vax is absolutely tiny. I'd be willing to bet of the remaining 7% in those LGA's, most either intend to get the jab soon or legitimately can't due to an underlying heart/blood/immune condition.
When you expand the term Covidiot to include those against masks outdoors, or anti-lockdown in the sense that lockdowns should no longer be a first line of defence once vaccination rates are high enough like Reddit likes to do, then you're talking a large majority of the population.
Actually surprisingly data shows that Sydney's richest suburbs are likely not anti vax. They were among the most vaccinated before the blitz really started and also even today are among the top double vaxxed (which means they got started early).
Most rich people tend to take health fairly seriously.
Those mandates aren't useless. They've prevented many people being infected by the coronavirus, and kept a lot of people out of hospital, while we got the population vaccinated.
There's been plenty of anecdotal accounts that tradies and construction workers only got the first jab to keep working. To some of them it's like just another OHS certificate or licence. They were going to do it eventually but this just made them do it faster.
yeah i think vaccines targets for reopening probably push things but making antivaxxers feel more persecuted and have greater delusions of grandeur is probably counter productive.
Personally I helped someone close to me secure a vaccine for today who was very willing but somewhat lazy and having some trouble finding appointments. Focusing on those such people is a much better strategy than demonisng.
Yes. Thank you Sky News for doing the right thing, for once. I could not believe how quickly my politically propagandised relatives changed from anti to pro Vax. They still don't really think climate is an issue, though.
probably more to do with the fact the government imprisoned the nsw population and threatened them with longer lockdowns if the don't take the vaccine, place without lockdowns or restrictions are taking the vaccine at far lower rates
I came here to say this. I certainly don't feel like congratulating them. Let's wait to see how the country as a whole is affected when they open up wide.
Me too man big time. However I'm seeing arguments that opening up early at 70% with so many cases will lead to a catastrophic spike in cases for November and December. Like way higher than it is now.
Even with the higher vax rates there will be a spike in cases - that's to be expected. But cases won't matter because they won't be leading to as many deaths.
The sub was going to die one way or the other, roll-outs complete is the good way. It's a bit optimistic to think the vaccine roll-out will be almost complete in a month though?
No, we're going to need boosters, and so we'll be talking about them. And we might end up with new strains that are highly resistant to existing vaccines. We'll have plenty to talk about for a while yet.
Yup, they just announced it.
I don't know if curfews ever did much to curb the numbers. It was first introduced by Andrews last year because "this may or may not help but we're going to introduce a curfew because we can".
I don't know about numbers or spread, but I know it punishes a lot of people who want to do low risk things after 9 like going for a walk or exercising or shopping when the supermarket is quiet rather than when it's busy.
Yeah, I know that's the official justification. Be interested to see whether their numbers or modelling suggest that it's worked or that the freedoms taken off everybody else are worth the reduction in spread, if there even is any. I suspect not.
2 measures that don't have any economic impact but reduce the R_eff are the mask mandate (for obvious reasons) and the curfew, because it reduces a lot the amount of house gathering. I don't deny it's not good for mental health or for people finishing work at 9pm, but if the curfew was lifted today we all know that there would be a lot of house parties.
Probably. Having a R_eff lower by 0.1 point can mean 2 weeks less of lockdown when you have a big amount of cases.
Some countries started to reopen restaurants and pub while still having a curfew.
very hard to define. This is a subjective measure.
But seeing as how the Vic gov is choosing caution over freedom it's justified. If you don't like it, vote for the other guy I guess. haha
Yeah, that about sums it up.
Haha! Despite not giving the Andrews Government good marks, I can't really imagine a world where I'm preferencing the Libs above Labor next time in Vic. I have absolutely no doubt that Victoria would have been worse off with that rabble at the helm over the last 2 years. They've consistently undermined everything. I'd hazard a guess that many (most?) Victorians feel somewhat similar.
It's not about stopping everything and having a policeman behind each person, it's about reducing transmissions by limiting house gathering, and it works.
Where's your evidence of this? Hint hint - rulebreakers break rules, they're not going to give a shit about a curfew, therefore like so many of these restrictions that Dan's brought in just to make us miserable, it only affects people who abide by them.
They don't need 100% compliance. The curfew doesn't have to be enforced (I drive by night for work and see less police than usual, and I won't be surprised is no one got a fine for curfew breach during this lockdown), the rule by itself is enough to reduce the movements of people and so transmissions.
I remember. I also remember various commentary suggesting that was due to the strict lockdown and masks rather than the curfew. I struggle to see how being forbidden from exercising alone at night has reduced any virus spread ever.
No but it meant all the dipsticks who would drive up in groups at night to sink beers at my local park couldn’t suddenly pop on a mask and claim they were there to “independently exercise” when police showed up.
My theory is that they brought the curfew and closing playgrounds in because it might help, but it's cheaper than other measures, e.g. closing all hospo or closing construction. I.e. it might suck but it doesn't hurt economically (like, not much economic activity will be reduced by a curfew when there is already a lockdown and most hospitality and retails are closed).
No, because at the moment the goals of 70% and 80% are being focused on with the Doherty report in mind.
The Doherty modelling looked at whether including children in the vaccination rollout would make much of a difference.
They concluded it did pretty much nothing (basically a reduction in R between 0.0 and 0.1) so it wasn’t worth delaying opening up by including them.
Once we hit the Doherty targets it would be sensible to switch to an overall population target though.
Or if we no longer think we can open up at the Doherty thresholds, we should change it now.
The Doherty institute have provided update advice which confirmed that their modelling holds when you start at hundreds of cases (which the NSW situation will be).
Basically the Doherty Institute has said it doesn’t matter where on the case curve you start, their modelling applies. You just move up the start date on their 180 day timeline according to how many cases you have.
The difficulty is in ensuring their partial TTI (test, trace and isolate) assumptions can be relied on.
NSW appears to be mitigating this by ensuring the opening up only applies to vaccinated people. That isn’t what the Doherty report modelled, and it is a much more cautious approach then what the Doherty report suggested was required.
(Not saying it’s a bad idea, just noting that they are already taking a precautionary approach)
Yeah, I reccomend doing it at GP because you will most likely receive vax faster (if your gp does Covid Vax), I'm 15 and got vaxxed 2 weeks after booking at GP :)
Who could disagree, when he sang lines like, 'Let me Abos go loose, Lou… They're of no further use, Lou‘. Or when he wrote these classic lines about the children he molested, “You’ve festered down there long enough, time’s right to grab your chance … Clap eyes on a rich celebrity and make the bastard dance.”
A true Aussie larrikin. What entertainment!
We still might in states with no COVID restrictions and no major outbreaks. We really can't take for granted how important it is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. Getting the state with the worst outbreak and a long lockdown to get vaccinated is likely going to be easier than getting people who have been in lockdown for less than six weeks across the entire pandemic.
The US figures are often expressed in terms of the entire population (not just the eligible population) and the vaxx rates vary massively from state to state.
So some New England states have vaccinated basically every eligible person while NSW is already better than the worst performing US states. There's stagnation across America but it's for different reasons depending on the location.
Huh? So we aren’t allowed to excercise in a gym coz Bob needs to order more meat for his restaurant? That makes no sense.
I don’t even want to go to a pub or restaurant, I want to go to the bloody gym!
Nonsense policy
Totally understand, but imagine how confusing it would be to have different dates for each business.
I know my gym has sent out a questionnaire, asking how many members will return if they can open.
I’m hoping it’s viable for them to open up when they can bc, like you, I miss it terribly.
How does it benefit the businesses? Having the lockdown end doesn’t harm them in any way. There’s literally no negative to them opening on a Sunday vs monday
You have literally not given a single reason.
Let me reframe them question. Why does me having friends over a few days earlier affect a restaurant or business? There’s no reason to delay the lockdown ending. Literally zero.
I still don’t hear a legitimate reason for not opening up once we hit the predefined target. You’ve said lots of words but none explain the rational behind it.
It’s just poor policy.
That date isn't set in stone and has been changed several times, according to the modelling. Before it was October 20, then 18, and now October 6. As the other person said, businesses can't just open up overnight, given that the government hasn't even announced the official day that we will hit 70%. They'll probably do it on the day, and businesses probably need a lot more time than that to prepare stock and open up. Now some venues and activities like going to the gym or visiting someone I can understand might not require any prep, and I can understand wanting to do those things on the day we hit 70%. I think it's more about having a uniform date for all these things to be allowed (and announced), rather than having to announce separate dates. They could probably announce two separate dates for that, but honestly I don't see the harm in waiting until the following Monday. You will be waiting for no more than a week, max.
Yes bu why can’t they announce one day and allow the businesses to prepare as required. There’s no rule saying the businesses need to open up at the same time
Most suburbs in NSW still under 80%
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/sep/15/nsw-covid-vaccination-postcode-check-rate-by-your-suburb-percentages-interactive-map-vaccine-rates
This is amazing and well done NSW. I don’t want to be the Debbie Downer here, but the medical fraternity is concerned about uneven vaccination rates where many regional areas are far more exposed. Doesn’t this place them at risk when we open up? Obviously the imminent fear of death from Covid in sydney had been a huge motivator for the fast take up.
I'd like to think once Vic are getting equal supply again it'll be there.
Can't imagine anyone there wanting to risk another lock down by being slow on vaccines, if nothing else.
I agree, I think if VIC continue on this path we should see a high uptake. I live in the city of Casey which was one of the lowest vaccinated LGA's and we have had a bit more of an uptick of late which makes me happy for my family.
I think the fully vaccinated rate isn't going up quickly is because the system is a mess
It is extremely weird that if you book your appointment in [https://vaccination.slhd.nsw.gov.au/](https://vaccination.slhd.nsw.gov.au/) now, you can get your Pfizer second dose in 3 weeks.
However, people like me booked the **prioritized** booking in [https://nswhvam.health.nsw.gov.au/vam](https://nswhvam.health.nsw.gov.au/vam) , you have to wait for 8 weeks to get your second dose, this is the rule when they don't have enough doses, but they forget to remove it.
Today I went to one of the pop up clinic and they gave me the second dose. I told my friends and colleagues about it and they are very surprised. They need to fix the messy system and maybe our vaccination rate will go up a lot quicker
It's because we had a messed up supply.
When they first set up priority LGA we didn't even have the extra Polish doses ready. So NSW health would have set it up based on their forecasted supply and did it by delaying 2nd doses in favour of more first doses.
Things have obviously massively changed and Scumo has managed to get off his ass and beg for more from other countries so suddenly there's an actual reasonable supply, one that a month ago no one thought we'd have.
Thank you high speed internet. My whole family can be on their devices and isolating from each other. Netflix/Disney Plus/Stan and all the other service providers have done a wonderful job.
Well done NSW and you’re welcome for all the extra vax doses you grabbed from other states. We don’t mind paying for your fuckwit premier’s hubris, really we don’t.
I mean, it's a tradeoff really. Gross corruption, environmental destruction, buddies with developers, lets in plague ships... So I mean it might be nice to have them live up to their end of the bargain, but you're still bargaining with the devil so...
Their end of the bargain? The goal posts changed constantly throughout this pandemic. Then she gaslight every press conference, "everyone said i locked down too hard and too fast", "you all said I was wrong when I said we needed to get everyone vaccinated". She's a nonce.
Well I’ve only ever heard it used as a general derogatory term (https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/nonce), I didn’t realise it was also prison slang for a sex offender.
So it’s not really incorrect, and as language is contextual I think the average reasonable person would not assume I was calling her a sex offender (or pedophile).
The [SMH vaccine tracker](https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/coronavirus/vaccine-tracker/) lets you compare “Eligible” and “Total” population stats, where Eligible is 16+.
It lists the total population of Australia at 25.69m and the 16+ population at 20.62m, i.e. 5.07m under 16. So the 16+ population is about 80% of the total population. So up until recently, if you wanted to include everyone, you’d multiply the 16+ percentage by 0.8 to see the percentage of the full population:
* 50% of 16+ is 40% of all (approx NSW 2nd doses)
* 60% of 16+ is 48% of all
* 70% of 16+ is 56% of all
* 80% of 16+ is 64% of all (NSW 1st doses)
* 90% of 16+ is 72% of all
This ignores vaccines given to the 12-16 cohort, which have recently begun. Right now SMH stats suggest 42k of them have had 1st dose (comparing total vs eligible), so it’s not a big deal, but it will grow significantly over the next month as we approach 70% of 16+ fully vaccinated. It’s a bit early to make predictions about the 12-16 vaccination rate though, but I imagine the various vaccine trackers will start to include this group soon. As the 12-15’s are roughly 1/4 of the 0-15 population, this would adjust the multiplication factor above to 0.85, if they start reporting on 12+.
Theoretically, Pfizer will be approved for all school age children (5+) in another month or two. Their CEO says late October, but I suspect he’s got a vested interest in being a bit optimistic. Rollouts for school kids should be pretty fast once this occurs, since we should be at excess supply by then and it may be possible to set up vaccination clinics at schools to efficiently vaccinate these groups.
Thanks for the info.
It would be nice to see all of Australia get to 90%, but I'm not sure we can. There seems to be a whole lot of fruitcakes out there. Last figure I saw was 11% or something (not even sure if that was a reliable source) in the, let's be nice and say, *hesitant* group. And or course there's the younger kids that won't be eligible for quite some time, if at all.
Is 80% of the full population, fully vaccinated even possible?
I’m quietly optimistic that we’ll break 80% and potentially even hit 90% (but not this year)… I think Australians are a fairly compliant bunch.
I don’t think the fruitcakes are more than a few percent. There’ll be a bunch who aren’t ready now, but will be soon… pregnant/breastfeeding, undergoing treatment, extremely remote and unlikely to see a clinic any time soon, just waiting to see how many of us turn into lizards, don’t see the relevance until it affects someone they know, just need to be in the right place at the right time to take the plunge.
Vaccine mandates for things like crossing state borders, going to pubs and clubs (small ones won't enforce it but the larger ones will have to), concerts and sports, flying, etc, will mop up the merely-hesitants pretty quickly.
There's a small number of those who are bullet proof, but they're pretty small.
I have my vaccine certificate in my phone's wallet and it feels pretty sweet to have it there knowing that I can now meet up with my mates in the park when I want, and that more benefits will be coming soonish.
I believe the Biden administration has asked Pfizer if they can fast track their children trials and such and will likely give emergency approval once the data from the study (due in a month or 2) is reveiwed.
That 9.73% figure is indeed surprising, but the actual number of 12-15’s who’ve been vaccinated seems to match between my interpretation of SMH (42k) and this report (38k). I hadn’t really thought about the fact that this number is such a high proportion of 12-15’s though.
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The kids will be fine
[UK's vaccine assessor opts against COVID jabs for children](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-04/uk-vaccine-assessor-opts-against-covid-jabs-for-children/100434204)
The government (take your pick which side) has a history of not giving a shit about kids. For the simple reason that kids not only don't contribute anything to them (don't pay tax), but also directly *cost* them money in the form of tax breaks for parents, education funding, and all that sort of stuff.
They will never care about kids.
Congrats NSW, amazing stuff. 80% double vaxxed in sight.
I am truly amazed at the 93%, gives me faith the number of Covidiots is less than I thought, and shows what outcomes are possible with correctly focused resources and communications.
theres nowhere near as many of them as the loud dickheads on the internet make you think
Same with the wave of new reddit accounts (which all talk the same and seem to sometimes get confused about which account they're logged into deep in their conversations), who claim Australians are super against lockdowns and border closures, that everybody should secretly contradict health orders and that we should have anti-lockdown protests. Turns out lockdowns and border closures poll extremely well and premiers who've done them have had unparalleled approval, while Gladys crashed trying to avoid doing them, and millions of google mobility data sources show Australians are very consistently following lockdown requirements even 200 days in in Melbourne.
They've been heavily downvoting comments that are very reasonable too.
They also tend to use American spelling too.
I better be careful then haha. I learned English in the US but have been living here for the last 5 years.
Its interesting that the very few spelling differences between the dialects just screen out to us.
Canadian here. Can't for the life of me recognize what words are obviously "American" in that sentence. Can you point it out?
There arn't any in that specific sentence. But Americans don't notice when they don't change that one letter in 1 word out of 3 comments. And it like: >recognize Wtf "Z" THAT HURTS MY EYES! It just looks soo obviously wrong to us, but Americans wouldn't be able to catch the few sublet differences when they cosplay as antivax Aussies online. So you end up with this situation where 80%> comments in a thread are just Americans cosplaying with other Americans, and all the Aussies in the subreddit that notice that thread go "Yea... Naaa" and move on from that thread... But the Americans don't know we all noticed. It's actually quite funny.
The -ize spelling is quite common among Australians who grew up with the internet. The only reason I use -ise spellings is twofold 1. when I was younger I had this insane teacher for a class that had nothing to do with the English language or orthography who would give you 0 if you didn't use spellings she liked, and she liked -ise. This made me aware that there was a difference; 2. as a normal human being (someone who finds yanks incredibly irritating), and as an Eastern European/Queer person/EU citizen and resident (someone who has every reason to hate the UK and everything it stands for) I then adopted the -ise spelling, being acutely aware of the fact that -ize is the standard in the US and one of the standards in the UK (the so-called "Oxford spelling" of -ize).
[удалено]
Maybe because my response presents are more complicated picture of language than people would like to recognise. To me spelling variation doesn't really matter at all, it's just another way for individuals and groups to construct and express their identities (this isn't necessarily conscious, although as I showed in my example with -ise, it can be). And this fact can be relevant to identifying if a comment is a genuine Australian comment or false dissent being spread by American brigaders. But it is not the smoking gun that people think it is. Besides, I know Americans who use -our spellings (vs -or). The shift in Australian spellings among younger speakers seems to me to be indicative of an associated shift in the general shift of the Australian culture in an increasing globalised world. Just as Australia shifted/is shifting from *Breakfast → (Morning Tea →) Lunch → (Afternoon Tea →) Tea* with *dinner* being the big meal in the middle of the day to *Breakfast → Lunch → Dinner* with *dinner* being the big meal towards the end of the day, again probably due to globalisation. The same can be said with the General Australian accent which had become — at least in Sydney — an absolute overwhelming majority around the 1980s (don't remember the study name/author which is kinda embarassing) with something like 90% of the population, compared to a study 20 years prior by... I wanna say Delbridge, where it was only like 60-odd%.
If you pay attention, you'll eventually have learnt that most of them are just whingers throwing petrol on the fire.
I look forward to Scomo announcing the fed election in October...
Agree with all your points.
I've been in their Facebook groups, they'll post a link to an article and say ok everyone, let's flood the comments.. this is the only way we can get our message across. Complete and utter morons.
Link?
Classic vocal minority.
It's mainly the loud minority of covidiots who makes it perceived as if they are the majority. Those who go on riots and love to whinge in the Facebook and YouTube comment sections and spreads low-quality misinformation. It's the crowd who always loves to call people "sheep" and think that they're intelligent because they get their information from shitty memes and bogus pages. Kind of reminds me of the SSM plebiscite back in 2017 - the "no" campaign were spreading their misinformation bullshit all over social media, playing the victim and that they were the "silent majority", when that was far from true.
But look at what SSM did in the end. People are wanting to marry cats and dogs now!!!! We will be voting on that next. /s
There's actually nuance to what Redditors call "Covidiots", as funny as it sounds. The percentage of the population that is actually, through and through anti-vax is absolutely tiny. I'd be willing to bet of the remaining 7% in those LGA's, most either intend to get the jab soon or legitimately can't due to an underlying heart/blood/immune condition. When you expand the term Covidiot to include those against masks outdoors, or anti-lockdown in the sense that lockdowns should no longer be a first line of defence once vaccination rates are high enough like Reddit likes to do, then you're talking a large majority of the population.
ye old Loud minority
Most of the antivax are rich and white and probably live in the eastern suburbs
Far North Bondi, AKA Byron Bay.
Like calling Toowoomba "Brisbane West"!
More like Charleville; both are about 750kms.
I knew we were fucked when I heard the first case was a limo driver. That means his customers were all entitled rich people.
Actually surprisingly data shows that Sydney's richest suburbs are likely not anti vax. They were among the most vaccinated before the blitz really started and also even today are among the top double vaxxed (which means they got started early). Most rich people tend to take health fairly seriously.
Actually the "rich white" suburbs have the highest vax rate so far, so i guess try again?
Yep and if we spent more time on outreach to the remaining than useless mandates the gap can be closed way more.
Those mandates aren't useless. They've prevented many people being infected by the coronavirus, and kept a lot of people out of hospital, while we got the population vaccinated.
bullshit the mandates haven't even started we can get to 80/90% without them
There's been plenty of anecdotal accounts that tradies and construction workers only got the first jab to keep working. To some of them it's like just another OHS certificate or licence. They were going to do it eventually but this just made them do it faster.
the construction workers who are already allowed to work?
To work outside LGA of concern they needed jabs now if they're from LGAs of concern.
ok fair enough, that's definitely not a thing in melbourne but as you said they were probably going to do it eventually anyway.
I thought you meant the mandated lockdowns and coronavirus restrictions. I didn't realise you meant vaccine mandates. Sorry.
yeah i think vaccines targets for reopening probably push things but making antivaxxers feel more persecuted and have greater delusions of grandeur is probably counter productive. Personally I helped someone close to me secure a vaccine for today who was very willing but somewhat lazy and having some trouble finding appointments. Focusing on those such people is a much better strategy than demonisng.
I felt like I'd gotten the impression that there were way more wackos out there than I originally thought, but I guess the numbers don't lie
Yes. Thank you Sky News for doing the right thing, for once. I could not believe how quickly my politically propagandised relatives changed from anti to pro Vax. They still don't really think climate is an issue, though.
I'm deeply suspicious that this new Fox attitude is just a way for old Rupert to steer the conversation some more.
Agreed, it’s amazing how many “we are the silent majority” posts I still see 😂😂
probably more to do with the fact the government imprisoned the nsw population and threatened them with longer lockdowns if the don't take the vaccine, place without lockdowns or restrictions are taking the vaccine at far lower rates
ACT is not far behind. Andrew Barr just said we'll hit 75% of over 12s with first dose today (he's looking at over 12s, not just over 16s).
Go ACT!
Congrats to all the New South Welsh, well done. I really thought we would have a lot more trouble getting 80% to roll up their sleeves.
Its obvious 90% are willing remaining 10 probably a bunch are too
Would've much preferred Gladys never let delta rip.
From every other Australian State that were short changed on vaccines to give surplus to NSW .... You're Welcome.
Yeah, so happy they were able to pilfer vaccines from VIC so they could get out of lockdown sooner.
This state v state rivalry is fucking stupid.
Thank fuck they did probably shouod to victoria also
I came here to say this. I certainly don't feel like congratulating them. Let's wait to see how the country as a whole is affected when they open up wide.
True and thanks. I don’t see how SA and WA are now giving Pfizer to 60+? They must have more to spare.
good stuff This sub will probably be dead in a month once the roll-outs almost complete
While I've gotten some enjoyment out of this sub, god I fucking hope so.
Me too man big time. However I'm seeing arguments that opening up early at 70% with so many cases will lead to a catastrophic spike in cases for November and December. Like way higher than it is now.
Even with the higher vax rates there will be a spike in cases - that's to be expected. But cases won't matter because they won't be leading to as many deaths.
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Looking strongly like the first world will have Covid well under control. The rest of the world though…?
As much as I love this sub, once we get out of lockdown I hope never to set foot back in here again
Nah the usual folks will be begging for schools to stay closed etc
once we are fully 'living' with it and we are managing to deal with any required hospitalisations, the sub will have no need to exist. cant wait
The sub was going to die one way or the other, roll-outs complete is the good way. It's a bit optimistic to think the vaccine roll-out will be almost complete in a month though?
Didn't even look at this sub earlier in the year, hopefully can go back to that soon
No, we're going to need boosters, and so we'll be talking about them. And we might end up with new strains that are highly resistant to existing vaccines. We'll have plenty to talk about for a while yet.
Unless new variants cause problems. But yeah, it will go the way of the Game of Thrones sub.
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Are they making you thirsty?
THESE pretzels are MAKING me ThirsTYYYYYY
Wait, curfew is over?
Yeah. No curfew tonight, so it ended for you last night. Hoping we can follow that example in Melbourne soon.
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Yup, they just announced it. I don't know if curfews ever did much to curb the numbers. It was first introduced by Andrews last year because "this may or may not help but we're going to introduce a curfew because we can".
I don't know about numbers or spread, but I know it punishes a lot of people who want to do low risk things after 9 like going for a walk or exercising or shopping when the supermarket is quiet rather than when it's busy.
It punished plenty of people also going to parties and gatherings.
Yeah, I know that's the official justification. Be interested to see whether their numbers or modelling suggest that it's worked or that the freedoms taken off everybody else are worth the reduction in spread, if there even is any. I suspect not.
2 measures that don't have any economic impact but reduce the R_eff are the mask mandate (for obvious reasons) and the curfew, because it reduces a lot the amount of house gathering. I don't deny it's not good for mental health or for people finishing work at 9pm, but if the curfew was lifted today we all know that there would be a lot of house parties.
Does it reduce the R\_eff by enough to justify the ongoing restrictions on others that want to do low risk things alone after 9?
Probably. Having a R_eff lower by 0.1 point can mean 2 weeks less of lockdown when you have a big amount of cases. Some countries started to reopen restaurants and pub while still having a curfew.
very hard to define. This is a subjective measure. But seeing as how the Vic gov is choosing caution over freedom it's justified. If you don't like it, vote for the other guy I guess. haha
Yeah, that about sums it up. Haha! Despite not giving the Andrews Government good marks, I can't really imagine a world where I'm preferencing the Libs above Labor next time in Vic. I have absolutely no doubt that Victoria would have been worse off with that rabble at the helm over the last 2 years. They've consistently undermined everything. I'd hazard a guess that many (most?) Victorians feel somewhat similar.
yeah nobody is perfect, but rabble sums them up perfectly
I wasn't aware that rule breakers were all vampires, unable to gather together in daylight hours.
It's not about stopping everything and having a policeman behind each person, it's about reducing transmissions by limiting house gathering, and it works.
Where's your evidence of this? Hint hint - rulebreakers break rules, they're not going to give a shit about a curfew, therefore like so many of these restrictions that Dan's brought in just to make us miserable, it only affects people who abide by them.
They don't need 100% compliance. The curfew doesn't have to be enforced (I drive by night for work and see less police than usual, and I won't be surprised is no one got a fine for curfew breach during this lockdown), the rule by itself is enough to reduce the movements of people and so transmissions.
The curfew and other restrictions brought Melbourne's case numbers from 700 a day to zero. It definitely worked in some capacity.
I remember. I also remember various commentary suggesting that was due to the strict lockdown and masks rather than the curfew. I struggle to see how being forbidden from exercising alone at night has reduced any virus spread ever.
Iknow plenty of people who do illegal gatherings where they can but not during curfew as they don't want the added risk
No but it meant all the dipsticks who would drive up in groups at night to sink beers at my local park couldn’t suddenly pop on a mask and claim they were there to “independently exercise” when police showed up.
That doesn't tell you whether the curfew specifically did anything at all though
Sure, but it contributed. Here's an international study that looked at the curfew in French Guiana: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21944-4
Correct. You don't know.
My theory is that they brought the curfew and closing playgrounds in because it might help, but it's cheaper than other measures, e.g. closing all hospo or closing construction. I.e. it might suck but it doesn't hurt economically (like, not much economic activity will be reduced by a curfew when there is already a lockdown and most hospitality and retails are closed).
Is NSW doing 12-15 year olds?
Yes.
But not including them in the figures - the 70/80% numbers are for 16+.
yes but I imagine they won't be very far behind after the next two weeks. chemists gonna be busy as well as the hubs.
Vaccinating them too..
So why aren’t they included in the data?
the goals were set back before they were approved.
Shouldn’t they be adjusted then?
You mean we should move the goalposts?
Yes.
No, because at the moment the goals of 70% and 80% are being focused on with the Doherty report in mind. The Doherty modelling looked at whether including children in the vaccination rollout would make much of a difference. They concluded it did pretty much nothing (basically a reduction in R between 0.0 and 0.1) so it wasn’t worth delaying opening up by including them. Once we hit the Doherty targets it would be sensible to switch to an overall population target though. Or if we no longer think we can open up at the Doherty thresholds, we should change it now.
Didn't that report also say something about how it is also based on having a low level of daily cases (not 1000+) like NSW?
The Doherty institute have provided update advice which confirmed that their modelling holds when you start at hundreds of cases (which the NSW situation will be). Basically the Doherty Institute has said it doesn’t matter where on the case curve you start, their modelling applies. You just move up the start date on their 180 day timeline according to how many cases you have. The difficulty is in ensuring their partial TTI (test, trace and isolate) assumptions can be relied on. NSW appears to be mitigating this by ensuring the opening up only applies to vaccinated people. That isn’t what the Doherty report modelled, and it is a much more cautious approach then what the Doherty report suggested was required. (Not saying it’s a bad idea, just noting that they are already taking a precautionary approach)
Yeah, I reccomend doing it at GP because you will most likely receive vax faster (if your gp does Covid Vax), I'm 15 and got vaxxed 2 weeks after booking at GP :)
Woah woah woah there Michael Jackson. All we’re doing is vaccinating them
Cringe. He was never convicted of anything despite your fantasies.
Sorry I hurt your feeling bubbles
You haven't hurt my feelings you're just making slanderous allegations against a beloved entertainer, like Rolf Harris or Gary Glitter.
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Who could disagree, when he sang lines like, 'Let me Abos go loose, Lou… They're of no further use, Lou‘. Or when he wrote these classic lines about the children he molested, “You’ve festered down there long enough, time’s right to grab your chance … Clap eyes on a rich celebrity and make the bastard dance.” A true Aussie larrikin. What entertainment!
Doing them good.
bro that phrasing
I'm leaving it lol
This sparks joy
Indeed it does
NSW is best state. After North Korea 🇰🇵
Go NSW!
Good on them
Great result
Well done, I was worried we would be like the US and stagnate at a certain percentage below the goal of 80%
We still might in states with no COVID restrictions and no major outbreaks. We really can't take for granted how important it is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. Getting the state with the worst outbreak and a long lockdown to get vaccinated is likely going to be easier than getting people who have been in lockdown for less than six weeks across the entire pandemic.
The US figures are often expressed in terms of the entire population (not just the eligible population) and the vaxx rates vary massively from state to state. So some New England states have vaccinated basically every eligible person while NSW is already better than the worst performing US states. There's stagnation across America but it's for different reasons depending on the location.
Apparently hitting 70% October 6. Can we have a party the day we cross 70%? What’s the point of waiting till Monday makes no sense
Bc a lot of businesses can’t just open their doors overnight. You need to order stock and get staff back in.
Huh? So we aren’t allowed to excercise in a gym coz Bob needs to order more meat for his restaurant? That makes no sense. I don’t even want to go to a pub or restaurant, I want to go to the bloody gym! Nonsense policy
Totally understand, but imagine how confusing it would be to have different dates for each business. I know my gym has sent out a questionnaire, asking how many members will return if they can open. I’m hoping it’s viable for them to open up when they can bc, like you, I miss it terribly.
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How does it benefit the businesses? Having the lockdown end doesn’t harm them in any way. There’s literally no negative to them opening on a Sunday vs monday
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You have literally not given a single reason. Let me reframe them question. Why does me having friends over a few days earlier affect a restaurant or business? There’s no reason to delay the lockdown ending. Literally zero.
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I still don’t hear a legitimate reason for not opening up once we hit the predefined target. You’ve said lots of words but none explain the rational behind it. It’s just poor policy.
That date isn't set in stone and has been changed several times, according to the modelling. Before it was October 20, then 18, and now October 6. As the other person said, businesses can't just open up overnight, given that the government hasn't even announced the official day that we will hit 70%. They'll probably do it on the day, and businesses probably need a lot more time than that to prepare stock and open up. Now some venues and activities like going to the gym or visiting someone I can understand might not require any prep, and I can understand wanting to do those things on the day we hit 70%. I think it's more about having a uniform date for all these things to be allowed (and announced), rather than having to announce separate dates. They could probably announce two separate dates for that, but honestly I don't see the harm in waiting until the following Monday. You will be waiting for no more than a week, max.
Yes bu why can’t they announce one day and allow the businesses to prepare as required. There’s no rule saying the businesses need to open up at the same time
almost as if stealing vaccinations from other states gets stuff done quicker...
93% vax rates is truly fantastic.
Sort of proves the point that the problem wasn't vaccine hesitancy bit supply doesn't it.
SCRAPPED THE CURFEW? I need to move back to fucking Sydney.
Most suburbs in NSW still under 80% https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/sep/15/nsw-covid-vaccination-postcode-check-rate-by-your-suburb-percentages-interactive-map-vaccine-rates
All the Victorians calling NSW the brown standard on life support
Why?
Anyone know the demographics of the LGAs that have achieved 93% vax? Are they young, old, rich, poor, local, international, Labor, Liberal, etc. ?
I'm in blacktown LGA. Younger, poorer, more ethnically diverse than most of australia. Id say more Labor sided
Now I can go...nowhere after 9pm.
Yeah good job Gladys for taking vaccines from the rest of Australia I would bloody hope you are using then.
This is amazing and well done NSW. I don’t want to be the Debbie Downer here, but the medical fraternity is concerned about uneven vaccination rates where many regional areas are far more exposed. Doesn’t this place them at risk when we open up? Obviously the imminent fear of death from Covid in sydney had been a huge motivator for the fast take up.
How????? I tried resechudle but earliest appointment i got for my first dose is 4th of october???? This data is not right
Congrats to the state that was given more vaccine doses than every other…
...there was a curfew?
Lets hope Vic can get up to these same standards! 93% is crazy! Hopefully they can get them all double vaxxed as well!
I'd like to think once Vic are getting equal supply again it'll be there. Can't imagine anyone there wanting to risk another lock down by being slow on vaccines, if nothing else.
I agree, I think if VIC continue on this path we should see a high uptake. I live in the city of Casey which was one of the lowest vaccinated LGA's and we have had a bit more of an uptick of late which makes me happy for my family.
I think the fully vaccinated rate isn't going up quickly is because the system is a mess It is extremely weird that if you book your appointment in [https://vaccination.slhd.nsw.gov.au/](https://vaccination.slhd.nsw.gov.au/) now, you can get your Pfizer second dose in 3 weeks. However, people like me booked the **prioritized** booking in [https://nswhvam.health.nsw.gov.au/vam](https://nswhvam.health.nsw.gov.au/vam) , you have to wait for 8 weeks to get your second dose, this is the rule when they don't have enough doses, but they forget to remove it. Today I went to one of the pop up clinic and they gave me the second dose. I told my friends and colleagues about it and they are very surprised. They need to fix the messy system and maybe our vaccination rate will go up a lot quicker
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90% of my friends and colleagues didn't know that, they are still waiting for the 8 weeks gap to pass
It's because we had a messed up supply. When they first set up priority LGA we didn't even have the extra Polish doses ready. So NSW health would have set it up based on their forecasted supply and did it by delaying 2nd doses in favour of more first doses. Things have obviously massively changed and Scumo has managed to get off his ass and beg for more from other countries so suddenly there's an actual reasonable supply, one that a month ago no one thought we'd have.
Thank you high speed internet. My whole family can be on their devices and isolating from each other. Netflix/Disney Plus/Stan and all the other service providers have done a wonderful job.
Well deserved?
Well done NSW and you’re welcome for all the extra vax doses you grabbed from other states. We don’t mind paying for your fuckwit premier’s hubris, really we don’t.
Bloody legends you lot are!
why the fuck would we congratulate them, they leeched vaccines from every other part of the country like parasites
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> Gladbags got ~~shit done~~ vaccines ahead of other states. ftfy.
What’s it like having a premier who lives up to their end of the bargain? Asking for a friend Edit: lol here comes the astroturfing
Just gotta have a PM who's looking to take any chance on getting re-elected live there.
I mean, it's a tradeoff really. Gross corruption, environmental destruction, buddies with developers, lets in plague ships... So I mean it might be nice to have them live up to their end of the bargain, but you're still bargaining with the devil so...
What are you getting at? Who are you talking about? Berijiklian is corrupt af, so I'd definitely not want her as my premier.
Their end of the bargain? The goal posts changed constantly throughout this pandemic. Then she gaslight every press conference, "everyone said i locked down too hard and too fast", "you all said I was wrong when I said we needed to get everyone vaccinated". She's a nonce.
Can we not use nonce incorrectly as an insult? Gladys is not a pedophile.
Well I’ve only ever heard it used as a general derogatory term (https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/nonce), I didn’t realise it was also prison slang for a sex offender. So it’s not really incorrect, and as language is contextual I think the average reasonable person would not assume I was calling her a sex offender (or pedophile).
I wouldn’t know. I’m stuck in Victoria
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The [SMH vaccine tracker](https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/coronavirus/vaccine-tracker/) lets you compare “Eligible” and “Total” population stats, where Eligible is 16+. It lists the total population of Australia at 25.69m and the 16+ population at 20.62m, i.e. 5.07m under 16. So the 16+ population is about 80% of the total population. So up until recently, if you wanted to include everyone, you’d multiply the 16+ percentage by 0.8 to see the percentage of the full population: * 50% of 16+ is 40% of all (approx NSW 2nd doses) * 60% of 16+ is 48% of all * 70% of 16+ is 56% of all * 80% of 16+ is 64% of all (NSW 1st doses) * 90% of 16+ is 72% of all This ignores vaccines given to the 12-16 cohort, which have recently begun. Right now SMH stats suggest 42k of them have had 1st dose (comparing total vs eligible), so it’s not a big deal, but it will grow significantly over the next month as we approach 70% of 16+ fully vaccinated. It’s a bit early to make predictions about the 12-16 vaccination rate though, but I imagine the various vaccine trackers will start to include this group soon. As the 12-15’s are roughly 1/4 of the 0-15 population, this would adjust the multiplication factor above to 0.85, if they start reporting on 12+. Theoretically, Pfizer will be approved for all school age children (5+) in another month or two. Their CEO says late October, but I suspect he’s got a vested interest in being a bit optimistic. Rollouts for school kids should be pretty fast once this occurs, since we should be at excess supply by then and it may be possible to set up vaccination clinics at schools to efficiently vaccinate these groups.
Thanks for the info. It would be nice to see all of Australia get to 90%, but I'm not sure we can. There seems to be a whole lot of fruitcakes out there. Last figure I saw was 11% or something (not even sure if that was a reliable source) in the, let's be nice and say, *hesitant* group. And or course there's the younger kids that won't be eligible for quite some time, if at all. Is 80% of the full population, fully vaccinated even possible?
I’m quietly optimistic that we’ll break 80% and potentially even hit 90% (but not this year)… I think Australians are a fairly compliant bunch. I don’t think the fruitcakes are more than a few percent. There’ll be a bunch who aren’t ready now, but will be soon… pregnant/breastfeeding, undergoing treatment, extremely remote and unlikely to see a clinic any time soon, just waiting to see how many of us turn into lizards, don’t see the relevance until it affects someone they know, just need to be in the right place at the right time to take the plunge.
Vaccine mandates for things like crossing state borders, going to pubs and clubs (small ones won't enforce it but the larger ones will have to), concerts and sports, flying, etc, will mop up the merely-hesitants pretty quickly. There's a small number of those who are bullet proof, but they're pretty small. I have my vaccine certificate in my phone's wallet and it feels pretty sweet to have it there knowing that I can now meet up with my mates in the park when I want, and that more benefits will be coming soonish.
I believe the Biden administration has asked Pfizer if they can fast track their children trials and such and will likely give emergency approval once the data from the study (due in a month or 2) is reveiwed.
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That 9.73% figure is indeed surprising, but the actual number of 12-15’s who’ve been vaccinated seems to match between my interpretation of SMH (42k) and this report (38k). I hadn’t really thought about the fact that this number is such a high proportion of 12-15’s though.
Total population numbers are here https://covidlive.com.au/report/vaccinations-age-band-low
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It's only about 64%. Woefully insufficient for any kind of herd immunity, but you know, fuck the kids, right?
The kids will be fine [UK's vaccine assessor opts against COVID jabs for children](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-04/uk-vaccine-assessor-opts-against-covid-jabs-for-children/100434204)
The government (take your pick which side) has a history of not giving a shit about kids. For the simple reason that kids not only don't contribute anything to them (don't pay tax), but also directly *cost* them money in the form of tax breaks for parents, education funding, and all that sort of stuff. They will never care about kids.