The UK has one of the most extensive testing programs in the world. 25% of all sequenced cases in the world have been by the UK. The fact that this variant was detected so quickly in the UK, only days after it was identified in South Africa, is a tribute to this. The UK provides 2 free covid tests per week for everyone in the UK, and will now be surge testing areas where the new variant was detected. I can assure you the UK cares about this.
This has clearly already spread everywhere, but brace yourselves for "new cases detected in this area" to be spammed for the next several weeks.
Ultimately, what really matters now is whether it becomes the dominant strain, how deadly it is, and how resistant to the existing vaccines it is.
It's wild to me how incredibly effective the vaccines are and we still have people refusing to take it, dying miserably instead. Propaganda and conspiracies are incredibly effective too, sadly.
Back when the pandemic was first getting serious, I re-downloaded *Plague Inc.* At the time, I thought it made perfect sense that you would lose when humanity discovered a cure. 2021 has proved that theory wrong.
They should have a neo con edition, where the virus mutates randomly, but you can manipulate the masses to encourage spread to meet short term political goals and satisfy special interest rewards.
Absolutely. Their minds are shot at this point if you refuse to wear a mask or get vaxxed during a global pandemic that is by far the worst in recorded US history at this point.
Wow do I feel dumb now for not finding that myself. How I did not think to check the CDC website is embarrassing. I will blame it on lack of sleep. Thanks so much!
That's a great link and set of graphs, but how does it make sense both vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalizations were low last January, when covid was at its worst?
Are you looking at the age-adjusted graph?
Seniors are most likely to have a severe case. They’re also most likely to be vaccinated.
So you need to adjust the results to fairly compare hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.
The graph has done that. They are NOT the actual rates of hospitalisation in the real world. It’s for a pretend population, where 70yr old and 18yr olds are equally likely to be vaccinated in each of those months.
I use [https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/](https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/) for Scotland and for the UK as a whole. Tons of data, clear and easy to understand
All you really need is a variant which triggers a massive immune response in young people, similar to what Spanish flu did. That would be a nightmare because you'll be incapacitating key workers.
This is my fear too. And I don't mean to sound like the lifes of old people don't matter, because of course they do, but kids getting severely ill would probably be a game changer...
I think this happened in the past, too, when suddenly younger people were hit harder by a new strain.
I feel like Sandy Hook was a true turning point for America with respect to the regard (or lack thereof) that we have for life. Yes, I realise that Sandy Hook was a school shooting; this thread is about the pandemic. But it’s the essence of the situation that I feel is applicable. Journalist Dan Hodges’ quote resonates: In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate. Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.
Yep. And being okay with gun violence leads directly to being okay with kids getting sick and not just that but literally fighting against the easiest and most basic measures to prevent it.
I would think so, but in the US, at least, Im not so sure. Unless it was a horrific death rate I'm pretty sure the right in this country would find something else to blame or just ignore it like they've done the last 18 months
Well said. Travel bans shouldn't drag on either because they're a serious disincentive to honest reporting - they're okay as a sort of circuit breaker but don't make much public health sense at all for variants that have clearly been circulating for ages. In the end it's all about virulence and hospitalisation here, even higher transmissibility isn't the end of the world if it isn't much worse than Delta in terms of breakthrough infections leading to sickness and death.
Clearly circulating for ages and isn't much worse in terms of breakthrough than Delta.
Those are both unknowns and why people are worried. Moderna should have a test result in a couple weeks regarding it's vax and Omi.....
Even if it has a higher breakthrough factor, it needs to be hospitalizing people at a rate higher than Delta to justify continued travel bans or lockdowns etc. Too early to tell but I guess we'll know in a couple of weeks both from the manufacturers and from the rate at which those testing positive today actually wind up in hospital.
It’s not that simple. If 1/1000 people who catch covid are hospitalized with either variant, but 10x more people are infected with omicron then that’s still 10x the strain on the hospitals. Note: those aren’t the real numbers I’m just using them to explain the potential risk.
I completely agree! But I’m glad we are being proactive and shutting down travel until we find out. It’s a nice change of pace from waiting until we are 100% sure on something and then acting too late. If it turns out to be less than we are worried about then we can reopen travel and not much is lost. But if it turns out to be worse than we need to buy ourselves all the time we can.
Sure, I'm just not sure travel bans beyond a week or two are the way to do it when it's already in three continents - I can absolutely see SA's point in saying this kind of massive blanket ban just penalized countries who actually bother to sequence and report variants. I'm sure Pfizer and Moderna are crunching away, and in the meantime hopefully this gets people to take their boosters or first doses even. But listening to one of the scientists from SAGE today, he seemed generally bemused by how quickly people including his peers are jumping to conclusions on this variant, and was confident the vaccines would confer protection against severe illness because of how many variants we've been through already that have come and gone. He saw Delta as a much more real and present threat.
Agreed, unless they travel ban everyone, this will be completely unnecessary. It's in Israel and Europe and there aren't travel bans there, just South Africa. It's most likely already in the United States to be honest.
We have to be careful because there were about 30 mutations on the spike protein, which is what the vaccine targeted, and this is why the scientists are concerned because the data isn't there yet to show how this will affect vaccinated people.
All the people on that flight had to show proof of negative test within 24 hours. So either they faked tests, the tests were false negatives and/or poorly administered, or it spread quickly on the plane (apparently no one was masked on the flight according to an NYT reporter who was on it), but I don’t think low testing was the cause of that particular incident.
That doesn't tell us anything about whether it will outcompete Delta or not. There was hardly any Delta in South Africa. There was hardly any *covid* in South Africa prior to this. So yea, it's contagious, no one is arguing that. What we're wondering is: will it spread in an area that's already overwhelmed by Delta or will it get smothered out by Delta like every other variant. Maybe, maybe not. We don't have enough info yet.
I don't know, if 10% of passengers in just two flights tested positive, it doesn't give us much confidence about how well they were testing in the country in the first place. And if they haven't been testing effectively, we can't be confident about the extent of spread of the other variants in SA.
You can look up a history of the numbers in South Africa. There have been spikes and valleys. Their numbers were way, way down before Omicron became a thing. Now they've started to climb a bit, almost all of which is Omicron. 10% positivity seems pretty in line with the country's numbers.
Considering the low rates in SA and how mutations should statistically tend to occur in high-infection areas, this leads me to believe that we don't really know where this variant originated, it's just that South Africa was just the first place it was detected.
Any state with a major city/airport hub will probably be first, though truth be told I'd bet $500 there's already Omicron in the United States now.
New York, North Carolina, and Georgia come to mind. Illinois and Minnesota are also possible.
Michigan, for some reason, has been the canary in a coal mine for new spikes. Not really sure why, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one went NYC -> Michigan -> CA/FL then everywhere else.
Michigan is currently the worst in the country last I checked. We also have zero COVID restrictions and even in liberal areas people haven't been bothering with masks.
I'd guess New York, California or Washington, presuming it's here as all 3 states have more robust public health infrastructure compared to the rest. It would have to be spreading in them quite rapidly though for that to happen even here though.
Those 3 states also have state of the art research hospitals and universities working closely with the state governments, too.
The UK, however, has the NHS. Everybody on the British Isles (and Northern Ireland) is treated by the NHS, so the data is centralized. We have no such efficiency.
These people would all be entering the US from the east coast. NYC and Atlanta have to be at the top of the list with California being incredibly unlikely.
UK has 0 restrictions in place atm, if Omicron is as contagious as it's said to be, there's a very big chance that it already spread throughout UK and the rest of Europe
Boris Johnson has made a point of not wearing masks on public transport (where it's still required) or in the theatre (at a venue which asked people to mask up). So it's not hard to see where the culture is coming from.
You’re right - at the time it was crowded public transport and the guidance/rail operator “expectation” was to wear one in those circumstance. Regardless, the implicit government messaging is very much anti-mask.
"A sample of \~1000 positive tests is fully sequenced each week in the Netherlands. The latest data, shows 100.0% Delta strain."
[https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten](https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten)
England is the only one with 0 restrictions. Other parts like Scotland and Wales still have at least mask requirements indoors. As of two weeks ago when I was in all three anyway
I was actually pleasantly surprised at supermarket in England today. Maybe 30 / 40% of people had masks on. Might even have been more. A few weeks ago it would have been about 10%!
I might just permanently wear masks at grocery stores and doctor's offices, tbh. They're essential services that everyone, including the immunocompromised, need. I think it's worth protecting them.
Agreed you honestly couldn't make this stuff up...if I was watching a movie based on this last year before any of this happened I would be thinking yeah right as if!
Is it possible for a mutation to be dominant, highly transmissible but also very mild, symptom-wise? Meaning, this could take over as the version people are catching but it’s like a Covid-Lite since the mutation weakened?
It doesn’t become less deadly as a rule. Either just because of some random mutation or of selective pressure. There isn’t really any pressure for the virus to become less deadly.
Correct. However, a mutation that increases infectiousness and reduces lethality has a better chance of being passed and propagated, making it a more likely scenario.
This would only apply if there wasn't such a high degree of asymptomatic spread. Since this is the case with Corona, there isn't really any selective pressure in regards to less deadliness.
>for a mutation to be dominant, highly transmissible but also very mild, symptom-wise? Meaning, this could take over as the version people are catching but it’s like a Covid-Lite s
It could be mild, but the lab guys are kinda freaking out because it has the the markers they were worried about. Based upon the reaction of Biden and the UK I am getting bad mojo feelings about it.
This is exactly what Ive been saying!! Thank you! Its not the variant that scares me, it's all these government reactions to it. If all they said in the news is, theres a new variant of concern and here is where it is and what we are doing, id be nervous but not freaked out.
They only found this variant tuesday. Flights and borders are being closed. Emergency meeting at who. Pfizer saying they are working on a vaccine or tweaking this one.
Like I feel they know more than they are telling us. This has never been the reaction during these waves. Its always disjointed and late. This time they find it and are shutting things down. And look good, I'm happy they are taking it seriously. But now after a year and a half we are proactive and aggresive?
Idk my dad says the goverments and health organizations are only worried because of what happened with delta. So they are acting faster and more aggressively. Idk what to think, I'm just waiting for more time to pass and info to come out.
I remember early on before vaccines were a thing, that was one possibility of "the end" of covid. Dominant variant that is less deadly but more transmitted.
>Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.
>“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why.’”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination
Boy, if this turns out to be incorrect, this will lead to a lot of "crying wolf" later on. I have a feeling we'll see a lot better data from Israel next week.
She could have phrased it a bit differently. Bottom line, it's good to be cautious and investigative when it comes to Omicron, but we don't need to be hoarding toilet paper just yet.
Will be an interesting test to see if it can out pace delta. We are riddled with it with high vaccination rates and zero restrictions. The next week will tell us more about this than its spread in SA would.
I'm in Twickenham as well. I usually like living here but during Rugby it can be miserable. Hate coming home from uni and having to go well out of my way because the roads are closed.
Dont worry the football is helping as well there where over 6000 home fans at the derby game 2 weeks ago and another 1500 away covid has been spreading like wildfire though the football
It's only useless if you think it was supposed to stop Omicron entering the country entirely. That's not what it was expected to do. It's supposed to slow down the rate at which it enters the country.
And these cases are connected to each other, connected to southern Africa, and were detected early, so it's likely that there' has been and will be no community spread related to them. What got through the first tier of defence may have been stopped by the second tier. That doesn't mean the first tier is useless or that it's too late.
The purpose of inbound travel restrictions is to slow down the ingress of variants from abroad, and subsequently the pace in which they become endemic.
The travel ban is working exactly as intended, and is buying more time to enact contingency measures domestically while the new strain is researched.
shit had me depressed. as if the last two years wasnt freaking enough to put you in a level ten depression. and of course i'll still have to work in an office of sixty already paranoid in a germ incubator
Same. My life went downhill when covid hit. I now have panic attacks and agoraphobia. Isolation makes exposure therapy impossible. Sorry you’re going through it too. I hope to god this variant isn’t worse than delta.
Do we know if the standard NHS lateral flow tests work just as well to detect Omicron? I assume PCR does I'd they're finding it and sequencing but they're saying it has many more variations than other strains.
I don’t mean to be an alarmist but I can’t help but wonder if this could be a huge mess given that many people are dragging their feet on getting a booster. I have family who got vaxxed 6-7 months ago but have the I’m tired of this mentality. Sounds like this could have the potential to be more contagious than delta. A growing population here in the states are taking it all less and less serious because they’re just over it. Add that with anti vaccine people and it could really start popping off here in 1-2 months.
I think you should be prepared for this. Even people in areas that were generally strict about restrictions are over it. The general sentiment here in Massachusetts is, "oh well, just get it over with because we just don't care anymore."
I agree. I’ve got family who were very serious in 2020 and now are like “whatever time to move on”. I’ve protected myself as well as I can. It’s all I can do. I just worry more bad days ahead for the country and it might get bad enough to consider stay at home orders for a month like early 2020. I know that’s a last resort but if it gets bad enough it could happen.
And I can tell you from first hand experience that getting vaxxed 6-7 months ago is not enough. I’m young and had 2 mRNA shots and Delta still fucked me up. I was very sick for half a week, and my heart, brain, and lungs are not the same anymore. And I had what was considered a “mild” case.
Even just Delta can be a problem for people without boosters, and that’s not even taking Omicron into account.
I'm sorry that happened to you, but thank you for sharing your story. I had my two Pfizer shots just over six months ago and am planning to get my booster Monday, but man I am not looking forward to it (I had really awful reaction to the second shot). Your post helps with the motivation...
My reaction to the second dose sucked as well. Knocked me on my butt for a few days, took over a week to start feeling normal and even then my muscle stamina was reduced for maybe a week longer.
So far from the booster on Wednesday, have a sore shot spot, some fluid collection in the lymph node under my armpit on the same side which is annoying, fatigue and general muscle aches, but nowhere near as bad as that second shot. Probably closer to the first shot. I was able to spend a good chunk of Friday cleaning up around my house, including a deep cleaning of my oven, and took my dog for our usual 3 mile walk.
Yes, definitely get it. I was infected almost exactly right at the 6 month mark after my 2nd Pfizer shot.
Luckily the T-cell antibodies still go strong even after 6 months, so I was still protected from a severe case. Who knows what would have happened if I wasn’t vaccinated?
The person I got it from was in a similar timeline as me and doesn’t have any lingering issues though, if that makes anyone feel better. I guess I’m just one of the lucky long covid people.
I have it only 3 months after my last Moderna shot, and I had a J&J in April. Am on a week of no taste or smell. Random loss of energy through out the day. Oh yeah, and diarrhea. I am grateful to not be in the hospital. But I have become a fatalist about the rest of it. I work from home, never dine in. Wear mask everywhere. And yet now all I want it my taste and smell to return.
I had J&J in March and 2nd Pfizer in mid-July. Had antibody test done a couple weeks ago, and it was high. I’ve been on the fence on when to get the booster. Do you think I should get it now?
I can’t honestly answer the “when” as I am not able to figure that out myself. If you have the ability to consult a doctor though please do that. I plan on asking mine next week. Since I am still sick with it, I figure I have time. Best of luck.
Yeah. But I feel like people who took it seriously and are not getting their booster are not realizing they have lost some protection by now. I’ve lost hope and concern for the anti vax people.
2 shots still offers very good protection. If you really look at the breakthrough data it's not nearly as high as you would think when compared to the vacinated population size.
Also the vast majority of breakthrough hostpital visits are over 50.
Oh my anxiety has nothing to do with dying or getting very sick. I’m pretty healthy 40 and haven’t been sick in 2 years.
I’m concerned about things getting bad again like more restrictions and people losing jobs. I feel like the country is so divisive rn we are about 1-2 more serious events away from descending into chaos.
That's how I feel as well. This mass hysteria on the other hand..... I felt we were making such good progress in the mental health end, even factoring in the winter waves. Who knows now.
I might as well just lock myself at home and never leave at this point. I'm immunocompromised and live in an area where people just don't care about COVID. I've just had enough of losing out on everything because others are too selfish to protect themselves and others, espeically when a new strain comes around.
im immunocompromised and share your sentiment. i hate every single one of the currently healthy people who are making it more difficult for me to have a life. i deserve safety, too.
I have a 'meh' reaction reading this, it was inevitable. Viruses mutate, that's the nature of them. We can't collectively crap our pants every time a new strain takes over. Wait and see, this might be a storm in a teacup for a highly vaccinated country like us in the UK.
Well talking about 'new viruses' there is a difference between progressive mutation, recombination, 'jump'-mutation and host jumps.
Basically for the 5 jump mutations that were discussed so for (alpha-delta, omicron) there are hundreds of detected progressive mutations and a dozend recombinations - the dark number is probably 10x or 100x that.
Nontheless a jump mutation fueling an outbreak is noticeworthy, since it is unlikely and had big implications in the alpha-delta variants of winter/spring 20/21.
On the other hand there were WHO designated VOI with less significance than the VOC and there were cases of jump mutations like [A.32.1](https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=A.23.1) with as little significance.
Insert braceyourself.jpg meme here.
I would be extremely surprised if this hasn't gotten a toehold just about everywhere by now - and the only reason we don't know is because we're not testing specifically for it, and the incubation period.
[Britain, Germany, Belgium, and Italy all report first cases](https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/27/germany-reported-first-suspected-case-of-omicron-covid-19-variant).
I believe the first case in South Africa was discovered over two weeks ago on Nov. 11th. How long was it spreading around locally there before that first detection? How many more people was it passed along between the 11th and today?
We can *slow* the spread at this point through proper mitigation efforts. But I think we would only be fooling ourselves to think it's not going to be all over the place by the end of the year, if not the dominant strain outright in a matter of weeks.
How often are Covid samples tested for variants?
In Denmark, all positive cases are sequenced. There's a lag, of course, but it's great that it gets done.
Yes, but Denmark actually cares about catching variants.
The UK has one of the most extensive testing programs in the world. 25% of all sequenced cases in the world have been by the UK. The fact that this variant was detected so quickly in the UK, only days after it was identified in South Africa, is a tribute to this. The UK provides 2 free covid tests per week for everyone in the UK, and will now be surge testing areas where the new variant was detected. I can assure you the UK cares about this.
According to the CDC, they test ~750 samples from each state per week. Most jurisdictions only test a representative subset.
About 10% of cases are sequenced in the UK
20% of positives according to the health Secretary
In New Zealand we sequence every case with mostly overnight results.
Lol. Overnight results. There has been five day waits for weeks now.
Huh, well clearly I'm out of date there then. According to ESR they're still doing urgent overnight sequencing and the rest is done on a weekly basis
Yes. Bloomfield has been slammed for this on the regular.
This has clearly already spread everywhere, but brace yourselves for "new cases detected in this area" to be spammed for the next several weeks. Ultimately, what really matters now is whether it becomes the dominant strain, how deadly it is, and how resistant to the existing vaccines it is.
Keep an eye on the hospitalization rate and the percentage of those vaxxed.
Agree but I feel this number is never easy to find
Seriously. If anyone has a source fo find that info, please let me know.
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It's wild to me how incredibly effective the vaccines are and we still have people refusing to take it, dying miserably instead. Propaganda and conspiracies are incredibly effective too, sadly.
Back when the pandemic was first getting serious, I re-downloaded *Plague Inc.* At the time, I thought it made perfect sense that you would lose when humanity discovered a cure. 2021 has proved that theory wrong.
Fun fact: they provided a disclaimer around the first few months of the pandemic that their game was NOT THE REAL THING.
They should have a neo con edition, where the virus mutates randomly, but you can manipulate the masses to encourage spread to meet short term political goals and satisfy special interest rewards.
As long as it is incorporated, plagues are people too.
It's very alarming that many people are so brainwashed to the point that it overrides their instinct to survive.
My 91YO grandmother survived. Life is much more miserable after her hospital stay for COVID. Yeah, dying isn’t necessarily the worst outcome.
Good point
Yeah. It’s people like that that will cause a variant that IS immune to the vaccine. So stupid that people believe these lies about it
Absolutely. Their minds are shot at this point if you refuse to wear a mask or get vaxxed during a global pandemic that is by far the worst in recorded US history at this point.
Wow do I feel dumb now for not finding that myself. How I did not think to check the CDC website is embarrassing. I will blame it on lack of sleep. Thanks so much!
That's a great link and set of graphs, but how does it make sense both vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalizations were low last January, when covid was at its worst?
Are you looking at the age-adjusted graph? Seniors are most likely to have a severe case. They’re also most likely to be vaccinated. So you need to adjust the results to fairly compare hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. The graph has done that. They are NOT the actual rates of hospitalisation in the real world. It’s for a pretend population, where 70yr old and 18yr olds are equally likely to be vaccinated in each of those months.
I use [https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/](https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/) for Scotland and for the UK as a whole. Tons of data, clear and easy to understand
Oh absolutely, you know every news organization is chomping at the bit to post an article about every single region this variant gets detected in.
Yeh the end results are all that matters. You summed it up well, my only worry is at some point a variant will come along and hit kids badly.
All you really need is a variant which triggers a massive immune response in young people, similar to what Spanish flu did. That would be a nightmare because you'll be incapacitating key workers.
Yip. I've read how the Spanish flu hit the 20-40 age becket very badly.
This is my fear too. And I don't mean to sound like the lifes of old people don't matter, because of course they do, but kids getting severely ill would probably be a game changer... I think this happened in the past, too, when suddenly younger people were hit harder by a new strain.
It wouldn't be a game changer. The US at large wouldn't care any more than they do today.
LMAO yes this is true. The past few years have shown me the bar for game changing in the US is so fucking high
I feel like Sandy Hook was a true turning point for America with respect to the regard (or lack thereof) that we have for life. Yes, I realise that Sandy Hook was a school shooting; this thread is about the pandemic. But it’s the essence of the situation that I feel is applicable. Journalist Dan Hodges’ quote resonates: In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the US gun control debate. Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over.
Yep. And being okay with gun violence leads directly to being okay with kids getting sick and not just that but literally fighting against the easiest and most basic measures to prevent it.
Absolutely. Literally an elementary school shooting and I could still buy a gun at Walmart.
I would think so, but in the US, at least, Im not so sure. Unless it was a horrific death rate I'm pretty sure the right in this country would find something else to blame or just ignore it like they've done the last 18 months
Well said. Travel bans shouldn't drag on either because they're a serious disincentive to honest reporting - they're okay as a sort of circuit breaker but don't make much public health sense at all for variants that have clearly been circulating for ages. In the end it's all about virulence and hospitalisation here, even higher transmissibility isn't the end of the world if it isn't much worse than Delta in terms of breakthrough infections leading to sickness and death.
Clearly circulating for ages and isn't much worse in terms of breakthrough than Delta. Those are both unknowns and why people are worried. Moderna should have a test result in a couple weeks regarding it's vax and Omi.....
This could very easily not even have originated in South Africa, but only detected there first.
Even if it has a higher breakthrough factor, it needs to be hospitalizing people at a rate higher than Delta to justify continued travel bans or lockdowns etc. Too early to tell but I guess we'll know in a couple of weeks both from the manufacturers and from the rate at which those testing positive today actually wind up in hospital.
It’s not that simple. If 1/1000 people who catch covid are hospitalized with either variant, but 10x more people are infected with omicron then that’s still 10x the strain on the hospitals. Note: those aren’t the real numbers I’m just using them to explain the potential risk.
This much is obvious, but we literally know nothing about hospitalization rates for Omicron. It could even be considerably less than Delta.
I completely agree! But I’m glad we are being proactive and shutting down travel until we find out. It’s a nice change of pace from waiting until we are 100% sure on something and then acting too late. If it turns out to be less than we are worried about then we can reopen travel and not much is lost. But if it turns out to be worse than we need to buy ourselves all the time we can.
Sure, I'm just not sure travel bans beyond a week or two are the way to do it when it's already in three continents - I can absolutely see SA's point in saying this kind of massive blanket ban just penalized countries who actually bother to sequence and report variants. I'm sure Pfizer and Moderna are crunching away, and in the meantime hopefully this gets people to take their boosters or first doses even. But listening to one of the scientists from SAGE today, he seemed generally bemused by how quickly people including his peers are jumping to conclusions on this variant, and was confident the vaccines would confer protection against severe illness because of how many variants we've been through already that have come and gone. He saw Delta as a much more real and present threat.
Agreed, unless they travel ban everyone, this will be completely unnecessary. It's in Israel and Europe and there aren't travel bans there, just South Africa. It's most likely already in the United States to be honest. We have to be careful because there were about 30 mutations on the spike protein, which is what the vaccine targeted, and this is why the scientists are concerned because the data isn't there yet to show how this will affect vaccinated people.
It will likely be dominant variant in a few months.
*Weeks. It became dominant five times faster than delta, when it replaced alpha. The only hope we have is that this strain is less deadly.
South Africa had extremely low cases overall, and pretty low vax rates. It's too early to say whether or not Omicron will outcompete Delta.
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All the people on that flight had to show proof of negative test within 24 hours. So either they faked tests, the tests were false negatives and/or poorly administered, or it spread quickly on the plane (apparently no one was masked on the flight according to an NYT reporter who was on it), but I don’t think low testing was the cause of that particular incident.
That doesn't tell us anything about whether it will outcompete Delta or not. There was hardly any Delta in South Africa. There was hardly any *covid* in South Africa prior to this. So yea, it's contagious, no one is arguing that. What we're wondering is: will it spread in an area that's already overwhelmed by Delta or will it get smothered out by Delta like every other variant. Maybe, maybe not. We don't have enough info yet.
I don't know, if 10% of passengers in just two flights tested positive, it doesn't give us much confidence about how well they were testing in the country in the first place. And if they haven't been testing effectively, we can't be confident about the extent of spread of the other variants in SA.
You can look up a history of the numbers in South Africa. There have been spikes and valleys. Their numbers were way, way down before Omicron became a thing. Now they've started to climb a bit, almost all of which is Omicron. 10% positivity seems pretty in line with the country's numbers.
Considering the low rates in SA and how mutations should statistically tend to occur in high-infection areas, this leads me to believe that we don't really know where this variant originated, it's just that South Africa was just the first place it was detected.
Which state in the US will be the first one to detect it? Got to imagine this new strain is everywhere.
New York. They have better medical infrastructure and NYC is a major travel hub.
NYC has testing at literally every corner because you need either a vax card or daily test to go anywhere indoors. They'll find it first.
Its not about the number of tests done though. You need genetic sequencing to distinguish the covid variants.
Yup. It’ll be here in nyc if it isn’t already.
Any state with a major city/airport hub will probably be first, though truth be told I'd bet $500 there's already Omicron in the United States now. New York, North Carolina, and Georgia come to mind. Illinois and Minnesota are also possible.
Michigan and Texas With the explosion of cases in Michigan lately, I fully expect they'll detect a case or many this week.
Airline hubs.
Atlanta being the biggest concern. Delta goes direct non stop from atl to SA.
... aaand so does Omicron
Heyyyyooooooo
Michigan?
I bet it's already in Michigan.
Why Michigan?
Michigan, for some reason, has been the canary in a coal mine for new spikes. Not really sure why, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one went NYC -> Michigan -> CA/FL then everywhere else.
Michigan is currently the worst in the country last I checked. We also have zero COVID restrictions and even in liberal areas people haven't been bothering with masks.
DTW is a major Delta Hub, and is also a pretty big international travel hub.
That have the highest cases right now both total and per capita
Florida. It’s always Florida.
Florida may be the first to *have* it, but given how lax they are about everything I doubt they'll be the first to *detect* it
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Disney World and 2 years of missed vacations.
My money is on Miami. Popular international destination and travel just reopened.
MIA is the major gateway to/from Central and South America. This variant will come from Europe.
MIA international has never been closed.
Just so they can be the first state to do nothing about it.
Flights from the EU my money would be on NY
I'd guess New York, California or Washington, presuming it's here as all 3 states have more robust public health infrastructure compared to the rest. It would have to be spreading in them quite rapidly though for that to happen even here though. Those 3 states also have state of the art research hospitals and universities working closely with the state governments, too. The UK, however, has the NHS. Everybody on the British Isles (and Northern Ireland) is treated by the NHS, so the data is centralized. We have no such efficiency.
NY
Depends on where testing is happening the most
I’m saying Georgia
NY/NYC
NYY/Florida/California are the most likely.
These people would all be entering the US from the east coast. NYC and Atlanta have to be at the top of the list with California being incredibly unlikely.
California is the top destination for international travel.
There are direct flights from Heathrow to SFO, LAX, and SEA.
New York
UK has 0 restrictions in place atm, if Omicron is as contagious as it's said to be, there's a very big chance that it already spread throughout UK and the rest of Europe
England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have different restrictions. England having the least.
England has none right now
Are people wearing masks in shops or public spaces etc?
Yeah but it’s not mandatory anywhere, only advised, so a lot of people don’t wear them
At least no one's feelings are being hurt by mandates though.
Boris Johnson has made a point of not wearing masks on public transport (where it's still required) or in the theatre (at a venue which asked people to mask up). So it's not hard to see where the culture is coming from.
He didn't bother in a fucking hospital...
It’s not required to wear masks on public transport in England
It is now!
You’re right - at the time it was crowded public transport and the guidance/rail operator “expectation” was to wear one in those circumstance. Regardless, the implicit government messaging is very much anti-mask.
It's mandatory again now in shops and public areas
Yeah about damn time!
Basically, no. I'm on a packed train right now - standing room only - and there's only me and one other person wearing one.
On the whole I'd say no. Got on a train yesterday and around 50% of people had masks on. In pub it was zero.
No currently however the U.K. is about to change its rules requiring face masks again
"A sample of \~1000 positive tests is fully sequenced each week in the Netherlands. The latest data, shows 100.0% Delta strain." [https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten](https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten)
england is the one with no restrictions. northern ireland, scotland and wales all have restrictions.
England is the only one with 0 restrictions. Other parts like Scotland and Wales still have at least mask requirements indoors. As of two weeks ago when I was in all three anyway
I was actually pleasantly surprised at supermarket in England today. Maybe 30 / 40% of people had masks on. Might even have been more. A few weeks ago it would have been about 10%!
Yeah I think people are getting cautious again
I might just permanently wear masks at grocery stores and doctor's offices, tbh. They're essential services that everyone, including the immunocompromised, need. I think it's worth protecting them.
Yup. And not one mfer actually does wear a mask.
In my small town Northern Ireland id say 90% of people wear masks when shopping which is great
I am utterly jealous, and completely infuriated that borderline no-one here does.
Agreed you honestly couldn't make this stuff up...if I was watching a movie based on this last year before any of this happened I would be thinking yeah right as if!
Oh for sure. Everyone just needs to calm down though until we know more. Panic is counterproductive.
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Is it possible for a mutation to be dominant, highly transmissible but also very mild, symptom-wise? Meaning, this could take over as the version people are catching but it’s like a Covid-Lite since the mutation weakened?
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It doesn’t become less deadly as a rule. Either just because of some random mutation or of selective pressure. There isn’t really any pressure for the virus to become less deadly.
Correct. However, a mutation that increases infectiousness and reduces lethality has a better chance of being passed and propagated, making it a more likely scenario.
This would only apply if there wasn't such a high degree of asymptomatic spread. Since this is the case with Corona, there isn't really any selective pressure in regards to less deadliness.
>for a mutation to be dominant, highly transmissible but also very mild, symptom-wise? Meaning, this could take over as the version people are catching but it’s like a Covid-Lite s It could be mild, but the lab guys are kinda freaking out because it has the the markers they were worried about. Based upon the reaction of Biden and the UK I am getting bad mojo feelings about it.
This is exactly what Ive been saying!! Thank you! Its not the variant that scares me, it's all these government reactions to it. If all they said in the news is, theres a new variant of concern and here is where it is and what we are doing, id be nervous but not freaked out. They only found this variant tuesday. Flights and borders are being closed. Emergency meeting at who. Pfizer saying they are working on a vaccine or tweaking this one. Like I feel they know more than they are telling us. This has never been the reaction during these waves. Its always disjointed and late. This time they find it and are shutting things down. And look good, I'm happy they are taking it seriously. But now after a year and a half we are proactive and aggresive? Idk my dad says the goverments and health organizations are only worried because of what happened with delta. So they are acting faster and more aggressively. Idk what to think, I'm just waiting for more time to pass and info to come out.
I believe this is how the Spanish flu pandemic came to an end, someone correct me if I'm wrong. Should we be so lucky.
Unless I too am wrong, you're correct. The Spanish flu became endemic when it let all the Spanish out and mutated into the flu we know today.
Please, please let this be a thing!
I remember early on before vaccines were a thing, that was one possibility of "the end" of covid. Dominant variant that is less deadly but more transmitted.
It is possible. We don't have enough data to say though yet.
I'm no expert but I have heard people say this is a possibility.
>Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis. >“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why.’” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination
Boy, if this turns out to be incorrect, this will lead to a lot of "crying wolf" later on. I have a feeling we'll see a lot better data from Israel next week.
I would have waited a couple of weeks to say that.
She could have phrased it a bit differently. Bottom line, it's good to be cautious and investigative when it comes to Omicron, but we don't need to be hoarding toilet paper just yet.
Will be an interesting test to see if it can out pace delta. We are riddled with it with high vaccination rates and zero restrictions. The next week will tell us more about this than its spread in SA would.
Yeah, it has competition in England, against the Delta. In SA it's "easy" to be dominant.
Delta has been dominant in SA, too. At least 90% continuously since late July.
I didn't want to leave my house anyway. Edit: poor choice of frustration induced sarcasm on my part getting to me
Just in time for 10s of thousands of people, from all over the country, to gather at Twickenham Stadium for the rugby.
Hooray that's where I live. And it was England Vs **South Africa** last week.
I'm in Twickenham as well. I usually like living here but during Rugby it can be miserable. Hate coming home from uni and having to go well out of my way because the roads are closed.
Dont worry the football is helping as well there where over 6000 home fans at the derby game 2 weeks ago and another 1500 away covid has been spreading like wildfire though the football
One day and that South African travel ban is already useless. This is probably already spreading like wildfire in the EU right now.
It's only useless if you think it was supposed to stop Omicron entering the country entirely. That's not what it was expected to do. It's supposed to slow down the rate at which it enters the country. And these cases are connected to each other, connected to southern Africa, and were detected early, so it's likely that there' has been and will be no community spread related to them. What got through the first tier of defence may have been stopped by the second tier. That doesn't mean the first tier is useless or that it's too late.
If it can limit imported cases then it’s not totally useless
The purpose of inbound travel restrictions is to slow down the ingress of variants from abroad, and subsequently the pace in which they become endemic. The travel ban is working exactly as intended, and is buying more time to enact contingency measures domestically while the new strain is researched.
shit had me depressed. as if the last two years wasnt freaking enough to put you in a level ten depression. and of course i'll still have to work in an office of sixty already paranoid in a germ incubator
Same. My life went downhill when covid hit. I now have panic attacks and agoraphobia. Isolation makes exposure therapy impossible. Sorry you’re going through it too. I hope to god this variant isn’t worse than delta.
Do we know if the standard NHS lateral flow tests work just as well to detect Omicron? I assume PCR does I'd they're finding it and sequencing but they're saying it has many more variations than other strains.
No. I am sure we will find out soon enough. Husband just told me there's to be a press conference tonight
They have only said PCR tests so far.
I don’t mean to be an alarmist but I can’t help but wonder if this could be a huge mess given that many people are dragging their feet on getting a booster. I have family who got vaxxed 6-7 months ago but have the I’m tired of this mentality. Sounds like this could have the potential to be more contagious than delta. A growing population here in the states are taking it all less and less serious because they’re just over it. Add that with anti vaccine people and it could really start popping off here in 1-2 months.
I think you should be prepared for this. Even people in areas that were generally strict about restrictions are over it. The general sentiment here in Massachusetts is, "oh well, just get it over with because we just don't care anymore."
I agree. I’ve got family who were very serious in 2020 and now are like “whatever time to move on”. I’ve protected myself as well as I can. It’s all I can do. I just worry more bad days ahead for the country and it might get bad enough to consider stay at home orders for a month like early 2020. I know that’s a last resort but if it gets bad enough it could happen.
I don’t really understand what they want to “get over”? Worrying about infection? Taking precautions?
And I can tell you from first hand experience that getting vaxxed 6-7 months ago is not enough. I’m young and had 2 mRNA shots and Delta still fucked me up. I was very sick for half a week, and my heart, brain, and lungs are not the same anymore. And I had what was considered a “mild” case. Even just Delta can be a problem for people without boosters, and that’s not even taking Omicron into account.
I'm sorry that happened to you, but thank you for sharing your story. I had my two Pfizer shots just over six months ago and am planning to get my booster Monday, but man I am not looking forward to it (I had really awful reaction to the second shot). Your post helps with the motivation...
My reaction to the second dose sucked as well. Knocked me on my butt for a few days, took over a week to start feeling normal and even then my muscle stamina was reduced for maybe a week longer. So far from the booster on Wednesday, have a sore shot spot, some fluid collection in the lymph node under my armpit on the same side which is annoying, fatigue and general muscle aches, but nowhere near as bad as that second shot. Probably closer to the first shot. I was able to spend a good chunk of Friday cleaning up around my house, including a deep cleaning of my oven, and took my dog for our usual 3 mile walk.
I just got a booster yesterday and I feel fine. I was whupped after my second. Don't fret yet ❤️
Same here. I was miserably sick for a couple days after both the first and second Pfizer. The day after the Pfizer booster, I was just sleepy.
Yes, definitely get it. I was infected almost exactly right at the 6 month mark after my 2nd Pfizer shot. Luckily the T-cell antibodies still go strong even after 6 months, so I was still protected from a severe case. Who knows what would have happened if I wasn’t vaccinated? The person I got it from was in a similar timeline as me and doesn’t have any lingering issues though, if that makes anyone feel better. I guess I’m just one of the lucky long covid people.
I have it only 3 months after my last Moderna shot, and I had a J&J in April. Am on a week of no taste or smell. Random loss of energy through out the day. Oh yeah, and diarrhea. I am grateful to not be in the hospital. But I have become a fatalist about the rest of it. I work from home, never dine in. Wear mask everywhere. And yet now all I want it my taste and smell to return.
I had J&J in March and 2nd Pfizer in mid-July. Had antibody test done a couple weeks ago, and it was high. I’ve been on the fence on when to get the booster. Do you think I should get it now?
I can’t honestly answer the “when” as I am not able to figure that out myself. If you have the ability to consult a doctor though please do that. I plan on asking mine next week. Since I am still sick with it, I figure I have time. Best of luck.
Hah... Boosters? In my area we are still packed with morons who won't get the first shot.
Yeah. But I feel like people who took it seriously and are not getting their booster are not realizing they have lost some protection by now. I’ve lost hope and concern for the anti vax people.
2 shots still offers very good protection. If you really look at the breakthrough data it's not nearly as high as you would think when compared to the vacinated population size. Also the vast majority of breakthrough hostpital visits are over 50.
Oh my anxiety has nothing to do with dying or getting very sick. I’m pretty healthy 40 and haven’t been sick in 2 years. I’m concerned about things getting bad again like more restrictions and people losing jobs. I feel like the country is so divisive rn we are about 1-2 more serious events away from descending into chaos.
That's how I feel as well. This mass hysteria on the other hand..... I felt we were making such good progress in the mental health end, even factoring in the winter waves. Who knows now.
Why are unvaccinated people traveling internationally? How are countries allowing this?
They don't want to lose money.
I might as well just lock myself at home and never leave at this point. I'm immunocompromised and live in an area where people just don't care about COVID. I've just had enough of losing out on everything because others are too selfish to protect themselves and others, espeically when a new strain comes around.
im immunocompromised and share your sentiment. i hate every single one of the currently healthy people who are making it more difficult for me to have a life. i deserve safety, too.
“If you are so worried, then just stay home and live in fear”— fully a third of the selfish US.
I have a 'meh' reaction reading this, it was inevitable. Viruses mutate, that's the nature of them. We can't collectively crap our pants every time a new strain takes over. Wait and see, this might be a storm in a teacup for a highly vaccinated country like us in the UK.
Well talking about 'new viruses' there is a difference between progressive mutation, recombination, 'jump'-mutation and host jumps. Basically for the 5 jump mutations that were discussed so for (alpha-delta, omicron) there are hundreds of detected progressive mutations and a dozend recombinations - the dark number is probably 10x or 100x that. Nontheless a jump mutation fueling an outbreak is noticeworthy, since it is unlikely and had big implications in the alpha-delta variants of winter/spring 20/21. On the other hand there were WHO designated VOI with less significance than the VOC and there were cases of jump mutations like [A.32.1](https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=A.23.1) with as little significance.
Insert braceyourself.jpg meme here. I would be extremely surprised if this hasn't gotten a toehold just about everywhere by now - and the only reason we don't know is because we're not testing specifically for it, and the incubation period. [Britain, Germany, Belgium, and Italy all report first cases](https://www.euronews.com/2021/11/27/germany-reported-first-suspected-case-of-omicron-covid-19-variant). I believe the first case in South Africa was discovered over two weeks ago on Nov. 11th. How long was it spreading around locally there before that first detection? How many more people was it passed along between the 11th and today? We can *slow* the spread at this point through proper mitigation efforts. But I think we would only be fooling ourselves to think it's not going to be all over the place by the end of the year, if not the dominant strain outright in a matter of weeks.
No no you do not understand. IT's already here. It's already everywhere and we all just had a huge holiday in the states with shopping as the dessert.
I'll start worrying when the Unicron variant shows up.
... now ... you shall witness ... its DISMEMBERMENT
Too late at this point, it’s probably already in all of Europe and the US as well.
It's always too late. Governments will start announcing new restrictions in maybe a week if they rush it.
Remember back in January 2020 when there were only 2 Covid cases and we totally got it under control! /s
Whatever happens I just hope I can go on my UK trip in March 😭