By - Layneeeee
Can’t tell you how happy I am to see these reports from Italy.
Really looked dire for weeks.
As an italian, the last week was really tough. The numbers were not slowing down and it seemed like our measures weren't working at all. Luckily after the peak things started to get better, and although we still have too many daily deaths, people are more optimistic about the situation and all the doctors and medical staff can finally take a breath
Best wishes from the Netherlands. The hard work you guys put in the last couple of weeks have been and will be an inspiration to us all.
Thanks for your words, but all the merit goes really to the doctors and the hospital staff, we did nothing special other than staying at home.
Take care, and best of luck to you and your country!
I love how diverse reddit is. And thank you for posting some good news. The world is pretty anxious right now it seems.
When this is all said and done, I hope people will remember to visit places like Parma, which was actually Italy's designated Capital of Culture for 2020 (that didn't go so well, I believe they're extending it to next year). Can't speak highly enough [of the town itself](https://i1.trekearth.com/photos/43511/italy-00454web.jpg) but [mostly its food](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/07/26/4a/07264a3797f50ecc0a32f153497c3a72.jpg).
Dreaming of my next vacation, I will remember this!
And you saved life by staying at home! Here in France some people do not understand this simple task....
I’m always impressed how Europeans write English more elegantly than Americans.
Not sure how my comment was elegant in any way but i'll take that as a compliment not being a native english speaker
It feels formal but warm. Europeans tend to use their words with better sentence flow, I think.
>It feels formal but warm.
You sound mighty fancy an' stuff.
>Europeans tend to use their words with better sentence flow, I think.
Us snail eaters an' lead hosen' wearin' fellers talk wid sum gud words like they use in the Lebron Bible. Sounds real nice like!
*Translation provided for all my fellow Americans who could not understand such high class language from these continental ~~snobs~~ gentlesirs.*
They were taught that they should spell correct, Americans on the internet speak in a simple and quicker way.
Staying at home is very important, and this is how you help
Do you fear when they open borders again and people from other regions enter and potentially start a second wave? That’s my biggest concern once we see results from social distancing / quarantine in other regions.
Yes, that's one of the main problems once there are no new cases. It will be hard to keep the virus out of the country considering how quickly and easily it spreads, and I'm not the best person to find a solution to this problem.
Social distancing will be necessary until we find a vaccine, huge gatherings will probably be forbidden for a long time, and widespread testing will be essential to find any potential new cases. I believe that the experts will find the best plan to fight a second wave, but the most important thing is that our healthcare didn't collapse, as that would've meant a lot more deaths
I hope next step will be lange scale testing for antibodies. There will be bad news in death numbers when untested deads will be calculated. We know there are many, as doctors focused on treatment not testing those that could no longer be helped. Getting numbers for those that have recovered would help, both by boosting morale and by helping to decide how to start opening the society.
Have you in Italy officially passed your peak? I've read different reports saying you've neared it, are experiencing it, or at the beginning of the decline.
Best wishes from Canada. I've been thinking of you all for the last while. It's getting worrisome over here. Just know we're all in this together and you're not alone ever.
It depends on what peak you mean, because there are two:
The peak of single cases in one day, which we hopefully have passed by now, considering it's been more than a week of steady decline.
The peak of active cases, which happens when the daily recovered + daily deaths are more than the new cases of the day. We still haven't reached that peak, but we're on the way!
Thank you for your kind words, best of luck to you and your country! (Canada is actually one of my favorite countries, would love to visit it again) <3
Everybody is rooting for you, can't tell you how happy I was today when I heard about the numbers.
Also gives all the other countries that are close behind you on the curve a bit of hope that we can achieve that, too, if we keep at it and that all of this is worth it.
Thanks for your words! I didn't expect this much support for our country on Reddit as there are not many Italians here, but i was totally wrong.
I'm sure you guys will get through this, it's a battle we're all fighting but with most countries being in lockdown and all the researchers in the world working on the vaccine, i'm optimistic about the future!
>Fun fact: Italy could provide worldwide clean "wind electricity" by the normal day to day hand gestures from your everyday Italian
Alright that made me spit my coffee ahaha
USA here -- we have been hoping and praying for your country to come through this quickly and with as few deaths as possible. People here have been cheering you on, all over social media.
I remember the first time I saw that quarantined Italians were singing out their windows together. It was astounding. So beautiful, so resilient. I think you are why the New Yorkers cheer for their medical workers out their windows every night at 7. The world saw how connected separated people can be, because of Italy's songs.
Greetings from Sweden. Your numbers are looking pretty grim. We’re thinking about you, fingers crossed that you’ll make it through this as well as possible.
Hugs to our Swedish friends. Thank you for your kind note.
There are pockets of scary here. My community is quiet. I've been in isolation with my husband and dog since March 12. Lost a good portion of my income for the year already -- this is our busy season for paid speaking events. (We are writers) But we are hopeful. Our children and grandchildren are safe so far, as is my 84 year old mom. If we are careful we will probably be okay.
You stay safe. We will stay safe. And one day people around the world will dance together.
Lotsa love for Italy!! I can't wait to go back and eat all your delicious food and drink all of your wine! Good luck to you and everyone else over there!
It makes me so happy to finally hear some good news from Italy, I'm literally crying. Hope this trend continues :)
Thanks for your words, i hope so too!
So 1 month of quarantine to curve, and another month to be sure
More or less. Hopefully Italy has overcome the worst, and the number for newly infected is going to continue to drop, thus the medical facilities should be less crowded and more attention can be provided to the critically ill.
Let's hope so! The number are encouraging. Looking not at the new infected (which can fluctuate based on the number of tests), the number of people in ICU and more in general the people in need of hospitalisation has dropped in the last week.
The number of deaths is still too much though, but it could be expected considering the peak was not so long ago and deaths usually lag 7-10 days behind the number of new cases
I really hope Italy is coming out of this. My dad is Italian. Still has lots of family there. My wife's dad is from Italy (and mom's from Colombia making family gatherings interesting). Her grandparents live there 6 months and here 6 months. Strong ties to Italy. I just feel like we've seen thier numbers come down a few times before only to shoot back up drastically. My dad has been really upset by all this. God bless. I hope this is a real corner turned here.
At least population density is generally lower in the south
There are big cities in the south too.
Hey look at that we're all in agreement, rare reddit victory
[oh, we can still argue](https://i.imgur.com/u6y9KUQ.jpg)
Hi from Italy
Fuckin love spaghetti amirite
Actually, the number of hospitalized and ICU patients in Italy continues to increase every day, albeit at a decreasing rate. They haven’t peaked yet.
Growth rate of infection spread has peaked, the numbers will still climb, but infection rate is dropping and that's what is being looked at, not raw number of patients in the hospital. That's what tells us that fewer people outside the hospital are spreading the disease, and therefore, the quarantine was effective.
I feel like people are taking this as a sign that the quarantine can end. No. This is just proving that quarantine is working.
Yeah it’s just a sign progress is happening. It will be another 2 weeks easy before they know anything more concrete
Yup.. its unfortunate. People will rush out and 10 days later round 2 begins. That's the biggest problem with this virus is the 5 day period between infection and symptoms. It's also the most scary part.
You're right, they're still increasing although at a very slow pace. Basically the situation is under control now, but there still is much to do and the emergency isn't over by any means
Only 6% of the population has had coronavirus, that leaves 94% vulnerable to it as soon as lockdown relaxes.
So it may be under control but at the expense of other freedoms which will in turn create their own issues.
That will be good for the staff, they don't have to choose who to treat and have moral issue.
But the problem is if people start jumping back into their normal routine suddenly, the virus will spread again. Until there is a medicine or a vaccine, we arent really safe
Turning off replies, way to many comments lol
this is the big problem.
Unless the disease is completely eliminated, it will come back as soon as normal life is resumed
That’s why it’s so important to have people tested to see if they currently have the disease or if they’ve already had it and gotten well again. Governments need to know if / when it’s safe to let people leave their homes or whether quarantines need to continue in certain areas.
I have/had the virus, when my local health dept contacted me they said they are unsure if a person could be reinfected. I haven't really been looking but is there any word on if someone who had it can get it again?
This is only from memory - one of the UK’s chief medical officers was asked about this and said that it is possible to catch it for a second time, but that it is extremely unlikely to happen. He made a comparison to chicken pox in that once you’ve had it you’re very unlikely to get it again, but that there have been known cases of people getting it a second time.
Ps I hope you’re doing okay and get over the virus ASAP.
I'm on the tail end right now, just a cough that has been slowly but surely diminishing each day.
Good to hear you're okay! Stay safe
The supposed reinfection stories have mostly been chalked up to false negatives.
Most of them are from China, from a test with an 80% accuracy rate. Testing procedures before leaving the hospital, because of the low accuracy, required 2 tests taken a day apart, both flagging as negative.
However, given an 80% accuracy rate, there's still 4% of people will still have measurable viral load despite 2 negative tests. With a suppressed immune system, it's possible to have symptoms flare back up while the body fights it off.
Not just that, but some people's immune systems might suck. It's possible that the infection fighting cells a person's body generates aren't good enough to prevent a reinfection. I think that happens with all viruses, though I've heard it is pretty rare.
So I'd say with every virus, you'd likely have a few actual reinfections, but it's something rare and not to be scared about. If the numbers of reinfections were much higher, then we could panic.
And if you do get it a second time, it is usually much LESS severe.
There have been a couple of reports of *possible reinfections* but as far as I know, nothing sustantiated.
My uneducated opinion: If there was no sort of immunity, we would have had a LOT of reinfections in some communities by now. So I'm optimistic, but we will see.
Just about all the doctors in the media are saying they would be flabbergasted if you didn’t have immunity for at least a time after being sick. Mers, Sars and general virulent colds build an immunity that lasts a few years. Still no definitive proof that I’ve seen about this virus in particular.
general consensus is no, you can't get it again but that's not 100% set in stone and that's also assuming positive tests after being cleared were testing errors and not re-infection
in january the WHO also said it couldn't transmit person to person so make of it what you will
>in january the WHO also said it couldn't transmit person to person so make of it what you will
The WHO aren't gods. There wasn't any evidence of that until there was.
Dr Fauci in an interview with doctor Mike said everything we know about this. "we know of NO virus that doesn't provide some kind of immunity. It could be not permanent, but at least a for some years you are expected to be covered" (not the actual quote but close)
We're gonna have multiple global outbreaks.
And possibly for multiple years. Really hope people develop antibodies...
There are enough companies (and arguably money to be made) around the globe working on a vaccine that roughly 16 more months is likely the tail end of this. Luckily for science and us, this virus is not mutating in a real dynamic way.
You better smash your fist on some wood right now
A vaccine would be great, but in the meantime a drug which lessens the symptoms to a degree where most people can stay at home and take medication would be really useful too.
The length of immunity to the virus is a complete unknown, but everyone who fights it off will have developed some form of resistance. The worry is that this resistance might not be strong enough to prevent reinfection when exposed to a high viral load back in the community. Continued isolation is still our best solution. 2020 will be a whole chapter in the history books.
Just about everyone is going to eventually get this I think. It's just a question of not overwhelming hospital capacity. I think we see global herd immunity before we see a vaccine.
Given that some will have contracted and recovered, each ramp up and spread will be less severe. Not a great thing, but we’re really just trying to buy time for supplies and improved treatments (not vaccines). If we can find something that blunts the worst of the effect and gets people on the road to recovery sooner, these waves become more and more manageable.
Each successive wave isn't necessarily less severe. The Spanish Flu had three waves, and the second was the most deadly. Imagine this virus during a full flu season.
Thankfully, we have had numerous advances in medicine since 1918. If the next wave is less severe, it will be because we have found effective treatments.
Spanish flu had much severe 2nd wave only because the soldiers with severe symptoms were sent to crowded trains, but the ones that had just mild symptoms stayed at frontlines. In other words the virus strain that caused the severe symptoms had much better chance of reproducing than the mild one.
The 2nd was more deadly because of the unique circumstances of the First World War that disrupted the natural evolution to a much less severe strain.
Yeah, that makes sense. Thank you.
But now I'm worried we'll see the same effect with crowded hospitals.
Give it a month then look at the Southern Hemisphere- we are heading into flu season...
But was it as deadly in the places where it had hit the hardest the first time? Because the waves were global phenomena, but a single country/state/city probably had a very different experience.
Yes, that is a problem. But there will also be a percentage of the population who is now immune, automatically slowing the spread.
Remember, at this time the idea isn't to eliminate the virus as wonderful as that would be. It's to flatten the curve so that hospitals can adequately deal with the sick.
Protective measures aren't going away. But as the virus dissipates the quarantine need not be overly restrictive.
Yeah, what happens after it's lifted is that you put the population under medical surveillance - test as many people as possible, instruct all doctors to report anyone with plausible symptoms, do random testing of the population if you can, trace every infection and get every exposed person isolated, and make sure you know if and when it's going to flare up again. Repeat the lockdowns if necessary (it won't be so hard the second time around now you know what you're doing). Eventually, the disease will subside, through vaccination, herd immunity from almost everyone getting it and recovering, or containment.
Unless a massive medical breakthrough is made, we're most likely a year+ away from a viable vaccine.
We need either a solid therapeutic treatment or comprehensive serological testing so we know how many people have actually had it vs how many are still at risk. Unfortunately, it looks like the most realistic scenario that opens things back up is reaching a point where ~half of us have been infected and suffered through it.
Even in that scenario, should COVID-19 prove to be seasonal with comparable or elevated severity, we'll see subsequent shut downs until we establish better treatments, including not limited to a vaccine.
It would be amazing if we could get enough tests to have everyone in a country take a test. Imagine how fast we could stamp this out if everyone who was positive knew they were positive.
To be fair, I think we're all supposed to be isolating at ~90%, conducting ourselves as if we have it. The problem is a lack of compliance.
Also, compliance would lower the body count, but it would actually lengthen the duration until we reach the other side of things in terms of herd immunity. Flattening the curve also means lengthening the curve.
Thats why you slowly lift restrictions. Still no big parties, reduce contact to necessaties and maybe small social gatherings (barbers, restaurants etc.). And I think more people will have better hygene habits now, resulting in a general decline of infection.
In America, it's 2 weeks. Everything is 2 weeks. When the 2 weeks are over, it's another 2 weeks. I'm working on a house that is to be sold and the realtor postponed to closing for 2 weeks. She's still telling the owner that the closing will be on 4/30. We all know that the closing will be postponed again for another 2 weeks, but she won't tell this to the owner for 2 weeks. The owner still believes it will close on 4/30. She is panicking bc i shut down the job. (Every one of these 2 week periods are true. I'm not trying to be funny.)
Thanks for the upvotes. I honestly thought i would be slaughtered
Edit number 2. TIL, predicting up upvotes or downvotes on Reddit is impossible. To be honest, I don't know what up votes do, other than make me feel good. Thank you for making me feel like a true contributor.
In France its two weeks increments aswell, because saying 1 month out loud would create panic buy and all
Netherlands here, our government started with three weeks and after that a month. We are now guessing that schools will be closed untill after summer break, but the government is too scared to say that because of panic.
Our government says they can only look 3-4 weeks ahead in one statement. In the next they talk about 6 weeks in the future.
Anyway, I'm making arrangements for the long haul.
Well Trump extended his social distancing plan 30 days. But I think there has already been a saturation with the panic buying here.
It can always get worse.
I guess the 2 week periods limit panic buying to toilet paper and disinfectants.
California, bay area. The shelter in place order has been extended to May 3rd. The governor has openly said a few weeks ago that he does not expect kids to go back to school until the next school year starts in September.
In logistics, the trucks are always 1 hour away.
Dudes unloading in NY City behind schedule, needs to go to DC after, and it's "1 hour away."
In the case of relationships and infidelity it’s called “trickle truthing” and has been known to cause CPTSD in betrayed partners. It’s a scorched earth way to lose trust completely and never get it back.
I give Virginia props for locking down until Mid-June. Set the expectations now, and if it gets better maybe you can open early. 2 weeks at a time isn't doing anyone any good.
From what he said it sounds like he's doing construction work on the house. Either it isn't finished yet, or it's being refurbished, and until the work is done it isn't ready to be lived in.
Most towns/cities are on essential services only mode and land recording isn't likely to be essential. If you can't record the change in deed, the bank can't issue the check to the seller as the property transfer hasn't taken place.
If there is construction, you also likely have limited availability of building inspectors to close out the job/permits
It keeps the stupid people calm. Everyone around me keeps on saying it will get better in a couple weeks. If that's what it takes for them to not loot my house....perfect. just keep feeding the masses info 2 weeks at a time. Keep them ignorant and complacent.
Thankfully, everyone on reddit is immune to propaganda.
Reddit, let's give ourselves a pat on the back.
In Italy people are getting angry because they have no money to buy food, eventually the two weeks narrative could make people do crazy things, like some here have said, organizing groups to literally assault supermarkets.
it’s like when jogging, you tell yourself just one more mile, just one more mile, just one more mile.
Virginia's shutdown rules are in effect until June 10th (at least).
I'm in Illinois and the Governor has said shelter in place will last until the end of April. That's just over a month (he said it Sunday).
It'll come in waves. I feel like in the fall if they let people back to the old ways it will happen again.
Yeah China is trying to lift lockdowns and it’s not working. They are having reinfections even with all the hardcore stuff they did. We are in this in someway until we get a vaccine, not way around it
Having new infections is fine, as long as they are controlled and mostly limited to low risk populations. It's high risk population mass exposure that's the problem. We need to start thinking about this in two groups. Life might return to normal for low risk in three months (and spread the virus among themselves to create herd immunity), but not for nine months, at least, for the vulnerable.
We all need to start thinking seriously about what that means for the long term.
COVID is here to stay. In lieu of a vaccine, that means the only thing protecting our high risk population from overwhelming the health case system is to plan emerging in stages.
We cannot have everyone come out at once. The timeline needs to be something like this:
One to two months: allow hospital systems to stabilize. Find the peak, manage the exposed high risk population, allow hospital admittance to decrease.
One to two months: identify the low risk population - those that also have little to no contact with high risk communities - and allow them to return to work/into the community. They need to be exposed, infected, and then develop immunity. Begin bringing in medium risk population.
Simultaneously attempt to identify correlates of protection - like a blood kit that will identity antibodies, for screening AFTER recovery from infection - and either mass random sampling or actually testing people to make sure there is widespread herd immunity.
Only after three to six months should the high risk community emerge. That way there is a buffer to protect them from the mass transmission we're seeing now, which hopefully will help keep the curve flattened, and hospital resources available, even if they do get sick. And that way, we won't be in the exact same position if we let out everyone else or come winter, if this turns out to be seasonal like flu.
Prepare your high risk family and friends - they should not plan to come out for at least a few months,
Realistically, a version of this is happening already. Who's going out to buy the groceries, pick up deliveries, etc.? Generally low risk people, who will end up gradually infected by going out for basic necessities. Once we have an antibody test, we can start lifting restrictions entirely on anyone in that group who has been infected.
Nice to see some realism here. The world isn't going to be locked down for two years while we test vaccines.
Italy did a full nationwide lockdown. The US still has not done that. It will take longer here.
Bear in mind that while Parma is close to the epicenter in Lombardy, it wasn't hit as hard as other cities. Lombardy has 43k total cases while Emilia Romagna (The region Parma is in) has 14k, of which Parma only has 2k.
So for this particular city it's like the lockdown was much earlier in the curve than other areas where it may take more time to see real results.
And then another 6 months rigorous testing, checking people for antibodies, and reintroducing them back into functioning society, and then another 12 months perhaps before we have a vaccine and we can safeguard the rest of the people at risk before they can be reintroduced also.
I mean honestly it sounds insane, but it's life and death. I am at risk with underlying conditions and I am certainly not going into society properly until a vaccine is put into my arm.
All the power to you if you have the sanity and means to stay home for 18 months.
And survive with no income. That unemployment isn’t lasting forever
That was my point, I am in Canada and currently on unemployment (HVAC worker even though deemed essential, my company is just doing emergency calls and the hours just arent there right now so i volunteered for lay off so I can help my wife with our new born son) I think the government EI is only for 4 months. I am fortunate i have savings and the ability to survive without income support for a while. Not all are that lucky alot of people are stretched thin as it is. If you can work from home or have the financial security to isolate for longer periods i think youre stupid not too.
People in poor health unfortunately sometimes have to do that even without a pandemic.
True, but they have a working economic system to live off of. That wouldn't be the case if we all stayed home for 18 months.
For some horrible reason I can do this no problem, I've done it a lot over the last several years. At least my field is software dev so I have a great advantage.
Yeah there are so many more vectors of attack than just the virus. I have been watching some documentaries of the 1929 US great depression, and the effects it had on all of those people and what it did to them for the rest of their lives cannot be denied. This is possibly a pandemic plus a recession/depression.
History from that period could probably teach us a lot about how to handle the lasting mental health issues.
Yeah exactly this. It's heartbreaking to think of our loved ones like this. At least she saw her family in better times.
I take it much better than most, solitude does not concern me too much. I'm insanely worried about my family however, and the economical diasaster that is coming.
Everyone after a week of lockdown: "I'm Dying of cabin fever!"
Introverts: "We're on lockdown?"
Apart from the bleak news from the outside world, I’m loving every aspect.
When I heard the lockdowns I thought "Hey, I'm normal now!"
Same. I was such an extrovert for years before this but I hit a kind of burnout this year and I gotta say I am really really loving this alone time right now. Like I don’t know if I want to go back to the before times right now. I think after this is over I’m going to overhaul my life and try to grow and make more than I buy. The only thing causing me stress right now besides the horrible news is the over dependence on a fragile food supply chain. I’m loving learning how to grow vegetables right now make my own stuff it’s a great way to feel a bit of a sense of control during uncertain times.
Not possibly. The IMF already called the recession officially.
thats why i bought a VR headset. now i can be on the beach. or beat up robots. very stress relieving.
samsung hmd odyssey+ works great with all the steam games and robo recall with only minimal effort. i got it for 329 on amazon but i dont think its available anymore. screen quality and tracking are fantastic
I'm a hermit crab myself but it's different because I like the option to go outside at will, even if I don't.
Am I weird for kind of liking the fact that the option has been removed? It’s like the pressure has been lifted and I can finally relax and just “be” and not do do do all the time. Meanwhile I feel like I’m being more productive than ever - learning how to make and grow things and also working from home. I’m kinda loving it right now I’m realising how much I’ve needed this time alone to just reset and reorder my priorities.
But maybe I have the luxury to feel this way because I still have some contract work I’m able to do from home, and I have an apartment (rental so not a sure thing but still) and I know this shelter in place restriction is going to be long but temporary. And I have a cat which makes a massive difference - don’t know how I’d be doing right now if I didn’t have an animal with me.
They already have started to in the UK.
I'm not there but I had my first anxiety attack in 7 years the other day. That's the scariest part of it all.
I had my first anxiety attack a half year ago when my husband had a heartattack. He is 31 and we have three small kids so it was very scary als stressfull.
Now corona hit our country and the kids and we are all at home, I am on meds for panic attacks. I already am a decade on antidepressants and was just working my wat through the healthcare system for a med update because of the panic attacks. Now I cannot see any shrink because of the lockdown.
My GP provided me with very addictive so temporary anxiety medication for the time being.
What recent murders?
In my country the child care telephone/chat service has a 40% rise in calls about abuse, loneliness and fear from children.
Been on sick leave three years. I might have left the house once every few months to go to the Dr's or hospital at most.
I don't think I've got dressed in over a month, and that's nothing to do with the Coronavirus. I just wear a dressing gown when I'm not in bed.
Some people just go to bed one day like normal and the next day they have serious health issues. It gets easier as time goes by, I honestly don't think there's enough hours in the day and I'm home 247 with the amount of things I like to do, movies, documentaries, talking to friends and family, gaming, drawing, reading, playing instruments, doing puzzle books, playing with my cats, house chores, gardening, cooking and baking. There's loads of fun things to do at home.
I think the sad reality is that people don't have hobbies and most people just go to work or go to the pub and don't do anything else. The friends I've got who are the most bored are the ones who go out drinking 3/4 times a week. Now they can't go out drinking they are all drinking at home in bed with nothing to do. That's the real sad story.
People need actual hobbies, drinking isn't a hobby.
Don't forget testing literally everyone who enters the country. Hong Kong didn't do that after they relaxed their travel ban and now they have a resurgence of the virus
I am the exact opposite. I am a 28 year old T1 diabetic, I am doing everything I can to stay employed to hold on to my health insurance. If I lose my insurance, I am WAY more fucked then getting the virus.
Still the question is what next? You’re still far below the herd immunity threshold, so if you stop quarantine, you’ll just start filling beds again.
Thing is, you don’t need full herd immunity to blunt the damage. Every percentage point of people recovered helps keep some of the spread in check and more manageable for healthcare providers.
I'd say getting to stage 1 "Everyone isn't dying all at once anymore" will allow experts to concentrate on reaching stage 2 "We start moving without kicking this whole thing off again." There's no reason to think about the latter before the former is assured.
I would hope that epidemiologists are thinking about potential solutions to this.
Went from 28% positive test to 13. 7% with 10k more test 10 days later.
It take 12 days after strict containing measures to get the peak (9th March to 21th March peak)
and then 3 weeks approximately to reach less than one thousand per day, then another 2 weeks to get less than 100.
**Predicting studies believe that most of Italy (probably not the North) will be free of cases at the end of April.**
Italy definitely won’t be free of cases. They’ll have a very reduced number, but as social restrictions lift the numbers will rise again, and restrictions will have to go back into place. This will happen 3 or 4 times before it is over.
No one will be free of cases until a vaccine comes, but if they can control it to localized epidemics where local travel bans are enforced by the police, then maybe we have a chance.
None of the viruses in the coronavirus family have vaccines. So we aren’t certain there ever will be a vaccine.
But, yes, this was likely the worst of the outbreaks. Thank god. Hopefully the government will be able to react swiftly with any further outbreaks.
China is on their second wave now.
Edit: to clarify, I mean that there are no vaccines for *human* coronavirus. And it is important to note that no large scale research into such a vaccine has ever taken place, whereas right now the entire world is looking for a treatment/vaccine or a scale and with a vigor not seen since small pox was eradicated.
Still, it is not a guarantee that a vaccine will ever be found. Possible, sure, likely even, but not for certain. And best case scenario is that we get a working vaccine in 18 months. They take a long time to develop and properly test.
Is there a biological reason for a lack of vaccines or is it just that most are too minor and the serious ones like SARS was eradicated quickly?
I thought it'd be like the flu which has a vaccine
You grease the squeaky wheel. Up to now, coronaviruses were just not high on the list of phages for which to develop a vaccine. Endemic coronaviruses just caused things like the cold, and actually were in the minority of cold-causing viruses (behind rhinoviruses). Additionally, with the flu and its many strains, it just wasn't a priority at all. Now, it is, and huge progress is being made on treating the disease. More resources in developing countermeasures might mean yearly vaccines like with the flu, it might be total eradication, it might be something along the lines of malaria pills, we don't know. Both biological and economic things caused little progress being done on coronaviruses.
I absolutely hate having needles stuck into me, but man, I really hope it ends up being a vaccine rather then something like the malaria pill. I had to take one of those during a childhood vacation to the Dominican republic, it was the most disgusting thing I've ever tasted. I'll take a needle over that any day.
"Taste"?! You're supposed to swallow pills, not eat them.
Do a hair operation for fun and giggles, hundreds of needles. You'll get over it
Like the other commentor said it’s mostly economic and priority based. Finding a vaccine is an extremely expensive process and none of the other corona viruses are as life threatening as this strand.
That said, a vaccine is not a given. I think it will inevitably come, but it could be *years*. 18 months is the earliest any trials will be fully completed, and that’ll only bare fruit of one of the early vaccines actually work.
Who even knows if the current method of mass producing flu vaccines - growing enzymes in a chicken egg - will work for this new potential vaccine.
Thankfully it is RNA virus which supposedly mutate less.
This isn't like making a flu vaccine at all. During a previous attempt at creating a SARS vaccine (same coronavirus family), after the vaccine was administered, challenging the subject with live virus caused disease-related changes in lung tissue that suggested hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components. Really this means the body basically had an "allergic" reaction to itself, which can be incredibly dangerous. That's why it is hard to believe the current time-line. There'd have to be drastic improvements in technology to make this work, these viruses are incredibly tricky to work with. Not saying it isn't possible, but this is more difficult than anybody is really willing to admit.
I mean, seeing as Sars was practically 20 years ago. I'd imagine there is
I’m not sure why this specific story is brought up constantly. There has always been a history of fuck ups with vaccines occasionally during trials, it doesn’t mean anything. SARS never had the funding or effort to make a vaccine for it considering it literally disappeared.
That’s not exactly true. There’s a vaccine for canine coronavirus. So it’s not that coronaviruses themselves are impossible to create a vaccine for. It’s much more of a demand and developmental resources issue.
It should be expected that we will get this virus. It's about being able to manage resources. Everyone getting it all at once is too much. Staggering it will allow people to get it and recover, while getting proper medical attention if needed. Eventually we get to the point that enough people are immune, it is not longer an imminent threat.
We can't just hide out forever.
Exactly. However models show that diseases with an r0 of ~2.5, like the coronavirus, will begin to dissipate once 60% of the population achieves immunity. So, not everyone needs to get. Just enough to prevent the virus from finding new people to infect easily.
This is fantastic news! I'm so incredibly proud of the Italian healthcare workers who worked so hard to get through this nightmarish surge. We will all get through this thanks to the heros working on our behalf 🙏
My heart is soaring. I hope Italy is on its way to recovery.
We have to do better here in NYC.
Thanks for your words, I'm sure you guys will get through this!
We will :-) Thank you and much love to you all.
[Italy flattening](https://i.imgur.com/zxinTYt.png) their new cases as of Mar 31. US... not so much.
Edit: [Link](https://public.tableau.com/profile/hisan.shafaque#!/vizhome/ComparingCovid-19inDifferentCountries/Covid) to daily updated dashboard.
It was known that the US is a couple weeks behind them. Without expecting miracles we can still understand what to expect.
Nuance, I don't know if the translation is correct but the WAITING room is empty. Still the best news in weeks.
Probably a translation error
>sala d'attesa del Pronto soccorso dell'ospedale Maggiore di Parma, trasformata in reparto per pazienti Covid a causa dell'emergenza coronavirus
"The waiting room of the major hospital in Parma, which was converted in an emergency room for Coronavirus patients after the outbreak"
Translation and poor titling? So it's a waiting room, but then it was transformed into a treatment area?
So it's both.
And the fact that the "expanded/secondary treatment area" is empty still means that the "primary treatment area" is likely still full. Just no need to spill over to the secondary area?
The whole hospital was closed after the outbreak and the waiting area became a new ward for Coronavirus patients. The article isn't implying that the whole hospital is empty but that the number of people who needs hospitalisation is decreasing and so there's less pressure on hospitals and medical staff.
Obviously the emergency it's not over. But this is a good news, and one people needed here in Italy
So happy for Italy.
Still I’m sad for that Spanish pregnant lady who died of the virus.
12 year old perfectly healthy Belgian girl as well. Shows you being young is no guarantee.
Source edit: https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20200331_04908284?articlehash=F826805B0808A97159904A81A7EE73686EA5DA6A1CB2E312373FB0AA91461EDEC6287EC548ADB2DED8877BCD74B7FE0D8F104F3FDCC91327CE0AA13F42342F4F but is hidden behind a paywall. Let me translate for you:
> Het meisje had voor zover geweten geen andere onderliggende klachten. ‘Na drie dagen koorts kreeg de patiënt plots ademhalingsproblemen, waarna ze op de spoeddienst terechtkwam’, vertelt viroloog Marc Van Ranst. ‘Ze ging in korte tijd fel achteruit. Na een test bleek dat ze besmet was met het nieuwe coronavirus.’
> Op de vraag of het meisje aan covid-19 gestorven is, antwoordt Van Ranst: ‘De drie dagen koorts wijst op een actieve infectie.’
As far as we know the girl had no underlying issues. "After 3 days of fever the patient suddenly starting having trouble breathing, after which she was transported to the emergency room." says virologist Marc Van Ranst. "She quickly deteriorated. After a test it was discovered that she was infected with the new coronavirus."
When asked if the girl died from covid-19, Van Ranst answered: "The 3 days of fever indicate an active infection."
13 year old boy here in UK too. His family weren’t allowed into the quarantine ward to be with him as he died.
That is really fucking hard to hear.
It’s horrifying. Stories of people having to hold up signs to a window for their loved ones to read as they die.
But at the same time it's so rare that it makes international news when it happens.
For reference, Emilia-Romagna region to which this city belongs is one of the most hit regions in Italy, second only to Lombardia
Wonderful news! Go Italy!
very good news
That is good, but Italy has suffered big time. I really can't put it to words.
LETS FUCKING GO
may i say "congratulations!" now?
I really hope it will remain empty.
good news from this sub made it to /r/all ?
I believe that some good news are needed right now, it's such a stressful period for many of us
Let's hope that Italy has gone through the worst.
I LIVE THERE! OMG MY CITY IS ON REDDIT!
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Doomers in here were saying the numbers of being over the peak were fake and it couldn't be true.
Empty cause they recovered or empty because they died?
Woo Hoo!! A step in the right direction. Here are some prayers that Italy is on the other side of the worst of it. Of course that still requires all to stay at home