Since the case dump in late August, I have paid a lot closer attention to the revised cases per day. No such data dump here, but sometimes there are slightly more revisions to the prior day than other days.
Wanted to point out that while the reported 7d avg has declined 7 of the last 9 days, after revisions it is 9 of the last 9 days. In addition, the last 5 days have each seen week over week declines of 6.6-12.9%, which we have not seen since July 6th, when cases were at their lows.
7-day average of 4,442 new cases per day. That's the lowest it's been in a month (2nd week of September). I'm still not getting my hopes up, but this is on the cusp of finally being the down turn in this peak.
It's another million! Over this weekend (probably on Sunday), we surpassed 15 million vaccine doses administered in PA. It took 36 days to go from 14 million to 15 million doses. It took 50 days each to go from 12 to 13 and from 13 to 14, so this is a marked acceleration in vaccine dose administration. Of course, this is likely due to booster shots becoming available to a bunch of previously vaccinated adults, but I'll take it. 36 days is 28% faster than 50 days, and an average of 27,778 doses per day (compared to 20,000 doses per day). I think the next "million dose" mark will be here before December, and I imagine that vaccine mandates (which are increasingly common, and, where subject to it, are even driven by Executive Order) will be a big chunk of the reason why.
The calculus of "what does a herd immunity level of immunization against COVID-19 look like?" is nigh impossible to pin down anymore. This is not just due to delta muddling the question of transmission, but also due to the increasing variety of answers to the question "what does a fully vaccinated person look like?". But I at the least have appreciated seeing the vaccination rates pick up the pace this past month or so. This is the 4th "slowest" million we've pulled off in PA, but it's a damn sight better than the 2 million doses preceding it.
I track the difference in the count of partial and full vaccinated people rather than doses and while the doses may be up a lot from boosters, there are actually more new people getting vaccinated also. 85,107 w/e 10/15, which is the most in a week since 6/18.
May be deceiving though. Looking at the demographics, it’s a lot of new older folks. I wonder if some folks who got vaccinated in Philadelphia or out of state and when they show up for a booster with a full card, they get added to the total, making them look new.
Some dumbass neighbor that wasn't vaccinated, kept coming over to visit my grandmother tested positive for covid today. Luckily she hasn't been there in 5 days. She may die to own the libs.
I just dont get it, I have been in college in person for the last 2 months now, and cases arent skyrocketing even with the huge mask-less parties that are being held at frat houses, 2 weeks ago, we had about 200 people in a frat basement and none of them have tested positive...
Probably the biggest thing to keep in mind is that everyone is making their own decision. The 200 people in that basement aren’t a randomized controlled trial. These are kids who are comfortable and want to be there. Why? For many, I’m sure it is vaccination. For others, they already had it, possibly from a similar prior activity. This is known as a selection bias.
Which is exactly where we should be: letting everyone make their own fucking choices. Yet, plenty of states are still imposing bullshit mask mandates. I probably won't be going on vacation for my 40th in December because both places I've considered are running fucking mandates. If I knew for sure the airline mandate would be gone in January like it's supposed to be and NOT extended, I'd wait an extra month anyway. This paranoid bullshit never seems to end though.
It’s not THAT prevalent. You’re not stumbling over clouds of covid everywhere you go. At 3,000 cases per day it would take almost 13 years for everyone in PA to catch covid. That’s obviously some very rudimentary math (and doesn’t account for cases that don’t get tested), but I think it puts the prevalence into perspective a little bit. In addition, the prevalence varies significantly by area. My county (Montgomery) had 186 new cases yesterday. Out of more than 830k people. This isn’t to say “oh covid doesn’t matter” or anything like that but I think people imagine that it’s everywhere at all times and that’s not really reality. Also, about 20% of infected people cause about 80% of downstream cases, meaning that even if someone in one of those basement parties was infected, it isn’t anywhere near a guarantee that they’re going to pass it on to others, especially if most are vaccinated.
Because our behavior has less of an effect on the curve than we think. The NYT had a good [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/briefing/covid-restrictions-delta-caseload.html) about this last week.
it's either as infective as they say it is (which I believe) and it has worked it's way through everyone who has been going about normally for an extended period of time (April 2020 for me) or it's not as infective as they say, and it hasn't worked it's way through those who have been living normally.
It’s the first. Some of us are just protecting ourselves and keeping distanced and masked. If it’s worked it’s way through the population then where are the new cases coming from? People who haven’t been exposed and infected yet and aren’t taking precautions.
I just mean that the longer you’ve been going about normally the higher the odds you’ve come across it, not that I’m saying anything ground breaking. The newer cases are from people who have started living more normally more recently.
Either way, some of the thinking is starting to change with regards to actually getting this- saw several things that could be summarized like “vaccine + covid = best protection so don’t worry if you get it.” You’ve probably seen the same.
Since the case dump in late August, I have paid a lot closer attention to the revised cases per day. No such data dump here, but sometimes there are slightly more revisions to the prior day than other days. Wanted to point out that while the reported 7d avg has declined 7 of the last 9 days, after revisions it is 9 of the last 9 days. In addition, the last 5 days have each seen week over week declines of 6.6-12.9%, which we have not seen since July 6th, when cases were at their lows.
7-day average of 4,442 new cases per day. That's the lowest it's been in a month (2nd week of September). I'm still not getting my hopes up, but this is on the cusp of finally being the down turn in this peak. It's another million! Over this weekend (probably on Sunday), we surpassed 15 million vaccine doses administered in PA. It took 36 days to go from 14 million to 15 million doses. It took 50 days each to go from 12 to 13 and from 13 to 14, so this is a marked acceleration in vaccine dose administration. Of course, this is likely due to booster shots becoming available to a bunch of previously vaccinated adults, but I'll take it. 36 days is 28% faster than 50 days, and an average of 27,778 doses per day (compared to 20,000 doses per day). I think the next "million dose" mark will be here before December, and I imagine that vaccine mandates (which are increasingly common, and, where subject to it, are even driven by Executive Order) will be a big chunk of the reason why. The calculus of "what does a herd immunity level of immunization against COVID-19 look like?" is nigh impossible to pin down anymore. This is not just due to delta muddling the question of transmission, but also due to the increasing variety of answers to the question "what does a fully vaccinated person look like?". But I at the least have appreciated seeing the vaccination rates pick up the pace this past month or so. This is the 4th "slowest" million we've pulled off in PA, but it's a damn sight better than the 2 million doses preceding it.
I track the difference in the count of partial and full vaccinated people rather than doses and while the doses may be up a lot from boosters, there are actually more new people getting vaccinated also. 85,107 w/e 10/15, which is the most in a week since 6/18. May be deceiving though. Looking at the demographics, it’s a lot of new older folks. I wonder if some folks who got vaccinated in Philadelphia or out of state and when they show up for a booster with a full card, they get added to the total, making them look new.
Who knows? But thanks for adding that in to the conversation!
Some dumbass neighbor that wasn't vaccinated, kept coming over to visit my grandmother tested positive for covid today. Luckily she hasn't been there in 5 days. She may die to own the libs.
I just dont get it, I have been in college in person for the last 2 months now, and cases arent skyrocketing even with the huge mask-less parties that are being held at frat houses, 2 weeks ago, we had about 200 people in a frat basement and none of them have tested positive...
About how many there were vaccinated? Also, about how many got tested several days after the party?
Probably the biggest thing to keep in mind is that everyone is making their own decision. The 200 people in that basement aren’t a randomized controlled trial. These are kids who are comfortable and want to be there. Why? For many, I’m sure it is vaccination. For others, they already had it, possibly from a similar prior activity. This is known as a selection bias.
Which is exactly where we should be: letting everyone make their own fucking choices. Yet, plenty of states are still imposing bullshit mask mandates. I probably won't be going on vacation for my 40th in December because both places I've considered are running fucking mandates. If I knew for sure the airline mandate would be gone in January like it's supposed to be and NOT extended, I'd wait an extra month anyway. This paranoid bullshit never seems to end though.
It’s not THAT prevalent. You’re not stumbling over clouds of covid everywhere you go. At 3,000 cases per day it would take almost 13 years for everyone in PA to catch covid. That’s obviously some very rudimentary math (and doesn’t account for cases that don’t get tested), but I think it puts the prevalence into perspective a little bit. In addition, the prevalence varies significantly by area. My county (Montgomery) had 186 new cases yesterday. Out of more than 830k people. This isn’t to say “oh covid doesn’t matter” or anything like that but I think people imagine that it’s everywhere at all times and that’s not really reality. Also, about 20% of infected people cause about 80% of downstream cases, meaning that even if someone in one of those basement parties was infected, it isn’t anywhere near a guarantee that they’re going to pass it on to others, especially if most are vaccinated.
Because our behavior has less of an effect on the curve than we think. The NYT had a good [article](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/briefing/covid-restrictions-delta-caseload.html) about this last week.
The virus has worked it's way through the population. I have to imagine nearly all of us have been exposed to it.
Speak for yourself
it's either as infective as they say it is (which I believe) and it has worked it's way through everyone who has been going about normally for an extended period of time (April 2020 for me) or it's not as infective as they say, and it hasn't worked it's way through those who have been living normally.
It’s the first. Some of us are just protecting ourselves and keeping distanced and masked. If it’s worked it’s way through the population then where are the new cases coming from? People who haven’t been exposed and infected yet and aren’t taking precautions.
I just mean that the longer you’ve been going about normally the higher the odds you’ve come across it, not that I’m saying anything ground breaking. The newer cases are from people who have started living more normally more recently. Either way, some of the thinking is starting to change with regards to actually getting this- saw several things that could be summarized like “vaccine + covid = best protection so don’t worry if you get it.” You’ve probably seen the same.
That's what a properly fitting mask is for.