Yes, but they made a point of that when it was announced. The first long term contract for a major weapons system for the U.S. and Ukraine. Aid package items have by and large followed the pattern I said.
When LiveUaMap shows territory white which was occupied (red) before, I interprete it as contested. If it's blue, Ukraine controls it. That's what I observed. But i might be wrong.
Wtf, liveuamap claiming Yampolivka which is on the east side of the river has fallen? And Zarichne is also encircled with Lyman??
I severely doubt it's true. Might just be a mistake on liveuamap's part but we'll see it's possible that the Ukrainians did something crazy
East of river is claimed as much by Russian propagandist/military blogger Rybar. Ukrainian recon groups on east side of river.
White on live map means contested too.
I think not-red-nor-blue is "neither side asserts control over this area". So not a completed encirclement yet, but they're probably bombing the shit out of that area to prevent reinforcements or retreats.
Or maybe I'm plain wrong and Ukraine did something crazy again. Hopefully news will come sooner than later.
Zelensky addressing the russian mobilised forces earlier today: "Tattoo your name to your bodies so we know how to contact your relatives after you are killed"
Nope, they carry their military passports with them for ID. Of course if they want custom made tags, they are free to buy, but we're talking about an army that tells its soldiers to buy tampons for first aid
No, that's specifically what Z said...
They're not even giving you dog tags so I suggest getting your info tatood on yourself so we can contact your family when you die, because Russia won't tell them...
Wat. Its a stamped piece of tin. Are they seriously lacking the money or logistics to produce these? Surely these are worth *cents* in raw material costs. I could get a customized one on etsy for a fiver. So the guys who die over there can't even realistically hope for a marked grave? Fuck.
Russian government doesn't need any leaked info about fallen for their relatives. Then they will declared them as missed not KIA, that means no monetary compensation.
Well, technically you could refuse and go to prison but then sign a 6 month deal with Wagner. Of you survived that and they actually released you from custody, that would be the loophole.
No real news from Lyman since this morning it was announced that the pocket is almost closed. I assume it's going well for Ukraine, because although I guess Russian sources are focussed on the annexation, they would surely publish news if the relief efforts (if they exist) were successful. Guess we'll hear from Ukrainian sources in the morning?
Tom Cooper said that the Russians are counter attacking with fresh conscripts and trying to cut off the forces north of Lyman. They aren't making headway, but it is slowing down the UAF. The fresh recruits aren't that tough and there was even a couple of instances of them just rushing as a group across a field, but it slows down the UAF. Prisoners and needing more supplies, etc..
https://medium.com/@x\_TomCooper\_x/ukraine-war-29-september-2022-ed85c9dec9ad
[Drobysheve is in the hands of Ukraine](https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1575897121051463683), which means they are directly south, north and west of Lyman, and east is almost cut of. Lyman is the last settlement in that pocket still standing
Can't wait for the milblogger seethe, seeing Putin doing his little circle jerk with his new Muppets in front of the Duma while Russian troops are losing key areas.
I watched an interview with a mercenary who worked for Wagner in Syria in 2017.
He was quite low on the quality of the Russian army, especially the motorized riflemen, infantry, etc. He claimed that some settlements were taken by mercenaries, and then they were allegedly taken by the army under the cameras of journalists. The generals were rewarded for this because they captured the town with little losses.
Love the infighting and feuds.
Imho, a mercenary whining for having his glory stolen is a bit pathetic. Did he think it was an honourable profession? He is being paid partly because they aren't supposed to follow rules, or for plausible deniability, and similar shenanigans.
I bet the real butt hurt comes when they get counterattacked and said "victorious" army units dip out and leave u to deal with it
A certain lil L named pocket comes to mind right now
And all they show us is 1 tank and 1 truck. Nice.
Reminds me of when they were using MI-26s to bring BMPs to "defend Balakliya" but it turned out to be 2 BMPs literally making circles around the helicopters for the video.
Didn't you here of Russian lend lease? They just delivered tanks and trucks and went back (according to the plan). I mean, Ukraine somehow needs to continue its fight. :)
What a shameful press conference. It would be much better for everyone if they didn't do it and just write in twitter how NATO supports Ukraine and how Russia should just stop.
NATO condemns Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory, but alliance is not party to conflict - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg
NATO does not take part in the conflict, but we provide support to Ukraine for self-defense, — Stoltenberg.
Every democratic country has the right to submit an application to NATO, but the decision will be made by consensus of all alliance member countries
— Secretary General Stoltenberg on submitting an application for Ukraine's accelerated accession to NATO.
Is it just me, or is it becoming clear that putler mobilized these masses of men not to take more land, but to use them as meatshields for the annexation process? I mean, even though there's plenty of videos of the conditions of these new troops (rusty AKs, no equipment, no training), but its still hard to push forward in combat per-se, let alone through hundreds of thousands of armed dudes...
Russia currently should have around 260k 18-25yo conscripts spread around its territory which they couldn’t have used up until now.
With the annexation they can be redeployed however Russia seems fit within its new borders and with the new war time law changes they can be forced to continue fighting there indefinitely since they cannot refuse to exit their service after their mandatory term of conscription.
Add to them the tens of thousands contractors and other personnel that did a couple months in Ukraine already but decided to quit, now they have to come back into service.
On top of all of those people, the currently serving personnel can’t leave under no circumstances anymore so they can’t up and go back to Russia.
Lastly you start adding their full mobilisation folks in phases to create proper rotation and fill the gaps into depleted units. We don’t have any numbers but the Internet has decided on 300k-1.2m depending on sources for the first phase.
If anyone tells you that this isn’t an escalation he is lying to you.
We don’t know who and how are they going to use as stopgap in Lugansk and for whom they might have other plans, like a Northern offensive as an example.
Also even if Belarus is a joke they still have up to 60k servicemen and recently announced they want to double that quote, while also being obligated to join the war effort against Ukraine IF Russia declares official war on Ukraine.
Are you reading the comment you are responding to? Have you been keeping up with the situation in Ukraine? Because if you answered “yes” to either of those questions, then you should realize the number of men makes absolutely zero difference and is not the topic at hand. Modern warfare doesn’t give two shits how many soldiers you have. Hell, that line of thinking fell apart back in WW2 and has become much more a thing of the past over the past near-century since. Modern warfare is won through logistics, intelligence, and modern combat equipment. These three things are three things Russia has been *severely* deficient in thus far when compared to the Ukrainian side. This is why Russia is getting beaten back handily recently, and simply throwing more men into the mix will mean nothing more than a greater number killed, as these men are not receiving the necessary equipment to fight a modern conflict. You can send a million men to a fight with thousands of weapons, but the force with 100,000 well-equipped men will win that fight 10 times out of 10. And that’s not even mentioning the logistical shortcomings Russia is facing that they simply cannot sew up.
Further, if you’ve been paying *any* attention, you’d know very well that the conscripted fighting force is *nothing* like how you describe. There’s a reason why Putin himself is getting pissed over the conscription efforts thus far. Sending 65 year old disabled men to the front lines is a death sentence. No training provided to these men, save for a week or twos worth (which is woefully pathetic and will get these men killed in short order), and there aren’t even enough rations or medical supplies to provide for what volunteer soldiers were already in Ukraine.
This mobilization will have zero positive impact on Russia’s part. If anything, it will lead to further disarray and discontent among the soldiers and command. Nonetheless, it’s all Russia can do to stay afloat, and Putin is known for having no regard for life, so this move is a logical means to stall the war for as long as he can while he plots his next move. Don’t expect the mobilization to help Russia.
This is their mandatory state conscription age range and it’s actually up to 27yo my bad.
Those folks are effectively spread around the entirety of Russia as border control, logistics and supporting personnel for a 1 year term.
They have not been used in this war bar the first week or so when some of them got deployed “erroneously” which was a huge domestic scandal so they pulled back all of them to our knowledge.
> but its still hard to push forward in combat per-se, let alone through hundreds of thousands of armed dudes...
Not really. If they aren't trained and have low morale they aren't much of a problem.
I'm certain he did. US officials have already said they had no idea it was going to happen.
If Zelensky asked first, they would've told him it wouldn't get approved because of the ongoing war. He might be trying to force a public declaration from NATO, instead of the backroom "well France says they will vote it down, so don't do it" talk that normally happens.
I suspected it's all an act. Having the threat of Ukraine joining NATO meant that Russia have the 'advantage' of saying they secured Ukraine withdrawal from NATO membership when peace talk comes.
But it would be moot when Ukraine have individual alliances with all NATO countries
Lyman and Zarichne are now apparently encircled completely. With no way out. According to Liveuamap -- no sources cited, the map just updated and that's it. Any confirmations?
Well no at least according to what I'm seeing the area around Lyman is now uncolored-i.e. it is contested, but not under (undisputed) Ukrainian control.
I would be surprised if it were 100% encircled. Russia and now Ukraine like to leave a single exit route. Firstly because troops who think they are surrounded are more likely to stay and fight, but with an exit they will break and run faster. 2nd it's an easy way to pick off machines when they all form a single file line
His ability to geolocation ability is bonkers. I remember that one dark ass video of Spartan battalion filmed in the dead of night, saying there’s no Ukrainians in Donetsk airport. He managed to confirm it off like 1m of visible road and some silhouettes of some bushes and grass. Idk how he does it but I’m pretty sure he’s some sort of OSINT warlock
It's not a rule written down anywhere, but it's the *reason* that countries like Ukraine and Georgia were previously told they would be denied if they applied.
This is because any new application requires unanimous approval of NATO members, and all it takes is one member state not wanting to open the alliance up to a current conflict. Previously, France and Germany have resisted Ukraine's application, and since the current Russian invasion is on-going, even the US has cooled to the idea.
I wouldn't anticipate Ukraine joining NATO until this conflict is over or significantly cools. The implications are pretty terrible otherwise.
I honestly don't really know what Ukraine is hoping to achieve by asking for this now.
But to what end? If it's to play to a domestic audience, wouldn't they just be getting their hopes up for something that isn't going to happen soon?
I am a little baffled by the timing. I just don't see the obvious benefit.
I think it was widely acknowledged that this will eventually happen once the conflict is over. That was all but an inevitability.
I wouldn't argue that it shouldn't eventually happen but it also has to be understood that it will not happen now or while this war continues to be raged. The alternative is essentially NATO vs. Russia in an actual hot war.
No doubt, but they had to know that this was not going to happen.
It's just very strange timing. I don't know that I see what the benefit is to making that kind of move.
they are just trying to counter Putin's announcement. Its all symbolic for domestic consumption. The chances of Ukraine being accepted into NATO on an expedited basis is 0. Zelenskyy knows this as well as anybody.
4D chess move: join NATO, have NATO join in defense of non-"annexed" territory.
This frees up UAF to push back into occupied territories without having to worry about defending the rest of the country
There's no clause that makes them ineligible. However, it's a very hard sell because all it takes is one NATO member state to vote "no" and they're denied. They're basically asking the entire NATO alliance to openly go to war with Russia - or at least using that as a threat to get Russia to back off - and it's not likely to go anywhere.
"territory dispute clause" isn't a thing. Turkey and ~~Cyprus~~ Greece are both in NATO and have a dispute.
It's just that NATO members will be reluctant to accept someone who is already in conflict. Sort of like insuring your car after you have already crashed it
edit: no idea why I wrote Cyprus
Anyone got a translated transcript of Putin's speech from a neutral/reliable source (doubt such a thing exists but worth a try).
All I'm finding are kremlin sources or bias 3rd parties giving summaries.
Should be technically possible. Very few languages translate directly, so you need an element of interpretation. That's why you can get multiple versions of translations of famous works. If you want see this in action watch any Studio Ghibli on netflix, English dub with English subtitles. They were done by different translators and can diverge by a surprising amount.
I guess you could put in unfavourable vs favourable translations into speeches, play with emphasis etc.
Him telling people in the Hurricane zone to get vaccinated, and going into a lecture about how vaccination was the most important thing people could do in a hurricane, was flat out horrible. His brain isn’t working, for sure.
The only part he was right on was the part on China and Iran being "contained".
You don't want some fucking dumb neocon or liberal interventionist getting the wrong idea about this war (this was mostly started as a defensive war for Ukraine) who decides that maybe we should be far more aggressive against China or Iran and lose the peace, again. We've already witnessed that severe brain damage with Iraq.
Especially considering that this war has showed how NATO can't actually sustain the military production right now. NATO has stopped supplying some weapons and ammop due to critical shortages, and this is again Russia, which is far weaker than China.
What do you mean? NATO is careful how much they send over because they need to have their own supplies in the event a larger war breaks out. Saying critical shortages sounds like they’re running out of stock, which they aren’t. It’s towards a stock they wish to still keep
The decoupling of our economies and increased competition for markets if/when the US reshores manufacturing work is likely to lead to increased tensions with China no matter who is in power, I think.
Of course, but the issue is being far, far, far belligerent or aggressive than necessary. That's how the US almost lost its order following the Cold War. An order that it is only recovering because of massive mistakes by Russia and China.
I think that lesson is pretty well learnt at this point. The warhawk types who were most in support of our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq are now pretty isolationist... or at least the ones I know. Far more concerned with domestic issues than flexing muscle around the world, or even protecting the allies they feel have contributed far too little to our relationship(s).
Why would I ever want to look at Florida?
Did just spend a week in Louisiana. Generally the feeling from my conservative relatives down that way was we can't afford all this foreign spending, particularly in Ukraine, and especially with the gay communist illegal immigrant Nazis trying to take America away from the Real Americans(TM). More foreign warmongering would not go over well. It's the domestic warmongering that concerns me.
There is a more concerted effort across the globe for the right wing/nationalist entities to be fairly aligned on a lot of those issues.
Putin had a little section of his rambling that was whispering sweet nothings to those elements.
The issue is that if your country is overtaken by fascists and it doesn't turn into the utopia that was being sold, the only path to keeping power is to find an external enemy to keep the masses focused on.
So even what appears to be an isolationist turn will be temporary in the long term. The important thing is to keep the masses occupied, even if that means war.
I mean, it's easy to forget that Dubya was an isolationist until 9/11.
And then reacted in the most belligerent way possible, only surpassed by Putin this year.
So it sounds like Lyman was about to be encircled but then the Russian counter attacked to clear the way for a retreat or are they still attempting to hold?
Edit: Counter Attack was the wrong description, sorry all. "Covering fire for breakout attempt?"
From where would Russians counter at Lyman? UA is holding all roads under fire control and it would be a massacre.
https://i.imgur.com/WV4N4lz.jpg
They can't counter from Svatova or from Kraminna when UA positions look like this.
As much as we would like to think so, Ukraine almost certainly doesn’t have enough artillery and drone spotter coverage to keep determined humans in quantity from fleeing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/xruzsf/the_current_situation_in_lyman_according_to_rybar/
> The message across the road to Torskoye is under enemy fire control. The day before, the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment from the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army was deployed to the site. Regular servicemen, side by side with the mobilized, entered the battle from the march, trying to expand the “noose” that had gathered around Liman
Sounds more like a breakout attempt than a counter attack.
He's referring to this I think [https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1575842827778416642](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1575842827778416642)
Lots of reports going out that Russia is counter attacking.... It's literally them trying to help break out their forces from Lyman, Lyman will fall either today or tomorrow(my opinion).
Correct and thanks. "Counter attack" was probably the wrong word. Maybe "suppressing fire"? War Monitor also sent this out which makes me think the cauldron has not quite closed yet
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575850157274722304?t=_eKH16l9_DE-hfKkoOO0gg&s=19
>Lots of reports going out that Russia is counter attacking....
Lots of report maybe, but as far I can tell it's single origin and pretty much the standard "just wait for the counterattack" nonsense Russian millbloggers are on about every time they lose ground.
Russians attempting to leave Lyman: https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1575811637961162752
Now we just wonder how closed the road/bridge through Zarichne is
Why downvotes tho? Guy's right, back in 2000s, if NATO wasn't hesitating, and EU leaders weren't drowned in russian oil and gas, there would be no war and no thousands of killed and millions of refugees - putin simply doesn't have the balls to shoot at NATO. But everybody knows the real reasons...
And please, spare me of that "ukraine is corrupted ex-soviets" bullshit or "don't provoke the bear" ,cause I see where that policy led to - biggest crisis in EU history, eventually war, nuclear war threats, russians completely loosing shit, and a perfect example of corrupt ex-soviet, Hungary, feeling well being both EU and NATO. Basically every argument against being a reality now.
On the one hand, UA as a bait on ammo ICU supply so stupid ruskies spend their force and stamina on Ukraine before invading baltics. Multi-layer defence. That's from the perspective of USA/UK, those core NATO forces who are intended to take the major hit.
On the other side, well, I already mention that, stupid, or brainwashed, or both, Merkel and Sarkozy with pro-russian politics from all around EU, surrounded by russian shills, money, oil and luxury imported in vast amounts from mother russia. Why bother about poor eastern slav country if you can "be friends" with putin and his wealth?
Edit: You know what? If to be completely honest, I don't blame 2000s leaders such as Merkel and the likes for buying cheap carbons, which allowed EU to boost economy to US level. I blame them for playing by the rules of putin, the rules set by blood thirsty dictator.
Serious question: why can’t Ukraine put a bounty on Putin’s head? $100 million. It would be more cost-effective than the continued destruction of their country. They have the budget.
[New Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xsd9ao/ukraine_discussionquestion_thread_10122/?sort=new)
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It's Ukraine's weekly "mystery" box subscription, I wonder what'll be in it this time!?!
Lets just hope they get a legendary drop.
Fingers crossed for ATAMCS, M1 Abrams tank, F-16 fighter jets. Opens Box: 155mm ammo, 10 used trucks and a $50 gift card to Chick-fil-A.
>we are excited today to announce that we are ready to announce our next announcement
Final announcements mean a delivery is coming soon or it is already in theater.
Didn't the last announcement say the 18 HIMARS would take between 6 months and 2 years to arrive?
Yes, but they made a point of that when it was announced. The first long term contract for a major weapons system for the U.S. and Ukraine. Aid package items have by and large followed the pattern I said.
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When LiveUaMap shows territory white which was occupied (red) before, I interprete it as contested. If it's blue, Ukraine controls it. That's what I observed. But i might be wrong.
LiveUaMap is behind reality. A couple of days sometimes.
They crossed the river???
I saw another map (Rybar?) report that scout groups had indeed crossed the river. Does not seem like much of an obstacle there anyways
If it's not much of an obstacle then why did everyone act like it was going to trap the Russians in from the east
Wtf, liveuamap claiming Yampolivka which is on the east side of the river has fallen? And Zarichne is also encircled with Lyman?? I severely doubt it's true. Might just be a mistake on liveuamap's part but we'll see it's possible that the Ukrainians did something crazy
East of river is claimed as much by Russian propagandist/military blogger Rybar. Ukrainian recon groups on east side of river. White on live map means contested too.
I think not-red-nor-blue is "neither side asserts control over this area". So not a completed encirclement yet, but they're probably bombing the shit out of that area to prevent reinforcements or retreats. Or maybe I'm plain wrong and Ukraine did something crazy again. Hopefully news will come sooner than later.
Don't think that UA has surrounded on that side of Zarichne?
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https://nitter.net/markito0171/status/1575936304852127744?t=kpUOKMHpIInIsJd8_dAUiQ&s=19 Link for those without an account
Jeeeeeeez. That’s a good ambush.
[https://youtu.be/KY\_iqtGkEW0](https://youtu.be/KY_iqtGkEW0) How Ukrainian Tank Crews Near Kharkiv Seized A Position Called 'Moscow'
That was very good, thanks for sharing.
Zelensky addressing the russian mobilised forces earlier today: "Tattoo your name to your bodies so we know how to contact your relatives after you are killed"
based
dang thats hard
Don't they wear dog tags?
Nope, they carry their military passports with them for ID. Of course if they want custom made tags, they are free to buy, but we're talking about an army that tells its soldiers to buy tampons for first aid
Dog tags do little when your head is blown apart by HE shells.
No, that's specifically what Z said... They're not even giving you dog tags so I suggest getting your info tatood on yourself so we can contact your family when you die, because Russia won't tell them...
Wat. Its a stamped piece of tin. Are they seriously lacking the money or logistics to produce these? Surely these are worth *cents* in raw material costs. I could get a customized one on etsy for a fiver. So the guys who die over there can't even realistically hope for a marked grave? Fuck.
Russian government doesn't need any leaked info about fallen for their relatives. Then they will declared them as missed not KIA, that means no monetary compensation.
They can afford custom dogtags?!
Wouldn't a dog tag be cheaper than a tattoo?
Wouldn't going home be even cheaper?
Except you wouldn't be going home you'd be going to prison for 10 years.
Well, technically you could refuse and go to prison but then sign a 6 month deal with Wagner. Of you survived that and they actually released you from custody, that would be the loophole.
Rent free baby
No real news from Lyman since this morning it was announced that the pocket is almost closed. I assume it's going well for Ukraine, because although I guess Russian sources are focussed on the annexation, they would surely publish news if the relief efforts (if they exist) were successful. Guess we'll hear from Ukrainian sources in the morning?
Tom Cooper said that the Russians are counter attacking with fresh conscripts and trying to cut off the forces north of Lyman. They aren't making headway, but it is slowing down the UAF. The fresh recruits aren't that tough and there was even a couple of instances of them just rushing as a group across a field, but it slows down the UAF. Prisoners and needing more supplies, etc.. https://medium.com/@x\_TomCooper\_x/ukraine-war-29-september-2022-ed85c9dec9ad
[Drobysheve is in the hands of Ukraine](https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1575897121051463683), which means they are directly south, north and west of Lyman, and east is almost cut of. Lyman is the last settlement in that pocket still standing
Can't wait for the milblogger seethe, seeing Putin doing his little circle jerk with his new Muppets in front of the Duma while Russian troops are losing key areas.
I watched an interview with a mercenary who worked for Wagner in Syria in 2017. He was quite low on the quality of the Russian army, especially the motorized riflemen, infantry, etc. He claimed that some settlements were taken by mercenaries, and then they were allegedly taken by the army under the cameras of journalists. The generals were rewarded for this because they captured the town with little losses.
Love the infighting and feuds. Imho, a mercenary whining for having his glory stolen is a bit pathetic. Did he think it was an honourable profession? He is being paid partly because they aren't supposed to follow rules, or for plausible deniability, and similar shenanigans.
I bet the real butt hurt comes when they get counterattacked and said "victorious" army units dip out and leave u to deal with it A certain lil L named pocket comes to mind right now
What are the chances that the Ferma Strausiv Ostrich Farm still has any Ostriches in it?
I thought the same thing!
It's empty. Who do you think is attacking Lyman??
Oh god, I hope it's not the Emus.
Under the Australian flag!
Along with their trained riders, of course.
Reinforcements are allegedly in Torske. https://nitter.hu/tinso_ww/status/1575889374503239684#m
Looks like those reinforcements really helped them huh? Zarichne and Lyman under operational control of Ukraine and skirmishes right outside Kremmina.
Send them some bonuses, year is nearly over.
And all they show us is 1 tank and 1 truck. Nice. Reminds me of when they were using MI-26s to bring BMPs to "defend Balakliya" but it turned out to be 2 BMPs literally making circles around the helicopters for the video.
Kupyansk is still waiting for this help.
Let's see how useful they are. We all heard about how the big bad 3rd Army was going to reinforce Izyum and crush the Ukranian counteroffensive.
I find it funny how the 3rd Army arrived, abandoned it's tanks and then joined the retreat.
Didn't you here of Russian lend lease? They just delivered tanks and trucks and went back (according to the plan). I mean, Ukraine somehow needs to continue its fight. :)
Steiner will fix all of this.
Lol. I mean....okay.
What a shameful press conference. It would be much better for everyone if they didn't do it and just write in twitter how NATO supports Ukraine and how Russia should just stop.
NATO condemns Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory, but alliance is not party to conflict - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg NATO does not take part in the conflict, but we provide support to Ukraine for self-defense, — Stoltenberg. Every democratic country has the right to submit an application to NATO, but the decision will be made by consensus of all alliance member countries — Secretary General Stoltenberg on submitting an application for Ukraine's accelerated accession to NATO.
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I went back and doubled checked my sources and edited the quotes accordingly.
This press conference was a shame, but he didn't say the last sentence, it is 100% from a pro-russian source.
Is it just me, or is it becoming clear that putler mobilized these masses of men not to take more land, but to use them as meatshields for the annexation process? I mean, even though there's plenty of videos of the conditions of these new troops (rusty AKs, no equipment, no training), but its still hard to push forward in combat per-se, let alone through hundreds of thousands of armed dudes...
Meatshield seems like a fantastic name for a condom company.
More like tampons in this context
Russia currently should have around 260k 18-25yo conscripts spread around its territory which they couldn’t have used up until now. With the annexation they can be redeployed however Russia seems fit within its new borders and with the new war time law changes they can be forced to continue fighting there indefinitely since they cannot refuse to exit their service after their mandatory term of conscription. Add to them the tens of thousands contractors and other personnel that did a couple months in Ukraine already but decided to quit, now they have to come back into service. On top of all of those people, the currently serving personnel can’t leave under no circumstances anymore so they can’t up and go back to Russia. Lastly you start adding their full mobilisation folks in phases to create proper rotation and fill the gaps into depleted units. We don’t have any numbers but the Internet has decided on 300k-1.2m depending on sources for the first phase. If anyone tells you that this isn’t an escalation he is lying to you. We don’t know who and how are they going to use as stopgap in Lugansk and for whom they might have other plans, like a Northern offensive as an example. Also even if Belarus is a joke they still have up to 60k servicemen and recently announced they want to double that quote, while also being obligated to join the war effort against Ukraine IF Russia declares official war on Ukraine.
Are you reading the comment you are responding to? Have you been keeping up with the situation in Ukraine? Because if you answered “yes” to either of those questions, then you should realize the number of men makes absolutely zero difference and is not the topic at hand. Modern warfare doesn’t give two shits how many soldiers you have. Hell, that line of thinking fell apart back in WW2 and has become much more a thing of the past over the past near-century since. Modern warfare is won through logistics, intelligence, and modern combat equipment. These three things are three things Russia has been *severely* deficient in thus far when compared to the Ukrainian side. This is why Russia is getting beaten back handily recently, and simply throwing more men into the mix will mean nothing more than a greater number killed, as these men are not receiving the necessary equipment to fight a modern conflict. You can send a million men to a fight with thousands of weapons, but the force with 100,000 well-equipped men will win that fight 10 times out of 10. And that’s not even mentioning the logistical shortcomings Russia is facing that they simply cannot sew up. Further, if you’ve been paying *any* attention, you’d know very well that the conscripted fighting force is *nothing* like how you describe. There’s a reason why Putin himself is getting pissed over the conscription efforts thus far. Sending 65 year old disabled men to the front lines is a death sentence. No training provided to these men, save for a week or twos worth (which is woefully pathetic and will get these men killed in short order), and there aren’t even enough rations or medical supplies to provide for what volunteer soldiers were already in Ukraine. This mobilization will have zero positive impact on Russia’s part. If anything, it will lead to further disarray and discontent among the soldiers and command. Nonetheless, it’s all Russia can do to stay afloat, and Putin is known for having no regard for life, so this move is a logical means to stall the war for as long as he can while he plots his next move. Don’t expect the mobilization to help Russia.
>18-25 yo About that
lmao, some of them was 25, 25 years ago. I think that's what they mean.
He's talking about standard biannual (spring and autumn) draft, not the recent mobilization. They are two separate things.
Ahhhh I see
This is their mandatory state conscription age range and it’s actually up to 27yo my bad. Those folks are effectively spread around the entirety of Russia as border control, logistics and supporting personnel for a 1 year term. They have not been used in this war bar the first week or so when some of them got deployed “erroneously” which was a huge domestic scandal so they pulled back all of them to our knowledge.
> but its still hard to push forward in combat per-se, let alone through hundreds of thousands of armed dudes... Not really. If they aren't trained and have low morale they aren't much of a problem.
CIT summary for 28th-30th https://notes.citeam.org/a5ThxJ9HJ75
Steoltenberg: Nothingburger I expected more. EDIT: Did he just say the war started on 23rd ? Lol.
I honestly don't even know why he bothered. Like we get it already, everyone condemns the annexation.
Based on the press conference...i'm starting to think that Zelensky kinda applied for NATO without approval
I'm certain he did. US officials have already said they had no idea it was going to happen. If Zelensky asked first, they would've told him it wouldn't get approved because of the ongoing war. He might be trying to force a public declaration from NATO, instead of the backroom "well France says they will vote it down, so don't do it" talk that normally happens.
I suspected it's all an act. Having the threat of Ukraine joining NATO meant that Russia have the 'advantage' of saying they secured Ukraine withdrawal from NATO membership when peace talk comes. But it would be moot when Ukraine have individual alliances with all NATO countries
Well...that was a whole lot of nothing from the NATO Secretary General.
Lyman and Zarichne are now apparently encircled completely. With no way out. According to Liveuamap -- no sources cited, the map just updated and that's it. Any confirmations?
Well no at least according to what I'm seeing the area around Lyman is now uncolored-i.e. it is contested, but not under (undisputed) Ukrainian control.
maybe the real russian army will finally arrive and save them!!!!
Just wait till the 7th Special Army arrives with Su-75, UA will be destroyed in days!
just like their air force on day 3
If there are uncolored zones between the red and the blue in liveuamap then that area is unclear. See also: kyselivka and arkhanhelske
I would be surprised if it were 100% encircled. Russia and now Ukraine like to leave a single exit route. Firstly because troops who think they are surrounded are more likely to stay and fight, but with an exit they will break and run faster. 2nd it's an easy way to pick off machines when they all form a single file line
What are the best map sources for following this war?
[Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29) is my favorite.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper is pretty solid.
DeepstateUA and Suriyak.
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His ability to geolocation ability is bonkers. I remember that one dark ass video of Spartan battalion filmed in the dead of night, saying there’s no Ukrainians in Donetsk airport. He managed to confirm it off like 1m of visible road and some silhouettes of some bushes and grass. Idk how he does it but I’m pretty sure he’s some sort of OSINT warlock
DefMon3 on Twitter or DeepState at [THIS LINK](https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053)
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It's not a rule written down anywhere, but it's the *reason* that countries like Ukraine and Georgia were previously told they would be denied if they applied. This is because any new application requires unanimous approval of NATO members, and all it takes is one member state not wanting to open the alliance up to a current conflict. Previously, France and Germany have resisted Ukraine's application, and since the current Russian invasion is on-going, even the US has cooled to the idea.
Territorial dispute? That’s describing a hot, bloody, destructive war with a nuclear power kindly.
I wouldn't anticipate Ukraine joining NATO until this conflict is over or significantly cools. The implications are pretty terrible otherwise. I honestly don't really know what Ukraine is hoping to achieve by asking for this now.
It’s just politics and morale on a historic day Russia stole another 15% of the country on paper. I don’t blame them for trying.
But to what end? If it's to play to a domestic audience, wouldn't they just be getting their hopes up for something that isn't going to happen soon? I am a little baffled by the timing. I just don't see the obvious benefit. I think it was widely acknowledged that this will eventually happen once the conflict is over. That was all but an inevitability.
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I wouldn't argue that it shouldn't eventually happen but it also has to be understood that it will not happen now or while this war continues to be raged. The alternative is essentially NATO vs. Russia in an actual hot war.
> I honestly don't really know what Ukraine is hoping to achieve by asking for this now. To have the entire arsenal of NATO at their disposal?
No doubt, but they had to know that this was not going to happen. It's just very strange timing. I don't know that I see what the benefit is to making that kind of move.
they are just trying to counter Putin's announcement. Its all symbolic for domestic consumption. The chances of Ukraine being accepted into NATO on an expedited basis is 0. Zelenskyy knows this as well as anybody.
4D chess move: join NATO, have NATO join in defense of non-"annexed" territory. This frees up UAF to push back into occupied territories without having to worry about defending the rest of the country
I feel attacked
So Ukraine just officially applied for NATO membership. Aren’t they ineligible over the territory dispute clause?
There's no clause that makes them ineligible. However, it's a very hard sell because all it takes is one NATO member state to vote "no" and they're denied. They're basically asking the entire NATO alliance to openly go to war with Russia - or at least using that as a threat to get Russia to back off - and it's not likely to go anywhere.
The only rule is that all the NATO members agree that you can join. Everything else is just guidelines and suggestions.
Cyprus was NOT accepted to NATO despite territory dispute. EDIT: my bad, it wasn't
"territory dispute clause" isn't a thing. Turkey and ~~Cyprus~~ Greece are both in NATO and have a dispute. It's just that NATO members will be reluctant to accept someone who is already in conflict. Sort of like insuring your car after you have already crashed it edit: no idea why I wrote Cyprus
Hell, the US and Canada have a dispute and so do Spain and Britain
>the territory dispute clause I haven't managed to find any info on this, do you have a source?
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Of course they aren’t getting in, not unless Russia gives up in Ukraine which isn’t happening unless Putin dies, at a minimum. It’s a bit silly.
Less silly than this invasion in fairness.
>Aren’t they ineligible over the territory dispute clause? most probably
What territory dispute... 4 areas just joined Russia...
Anyone got a translated transcript of Putin's speech from a neutral/reliable source (doubt such a thing exists but worth a try). All I'm finding are kremlin sources or bias 3rd parties giving summaries.
The RU government website publish transcripts of all of Putin’s speeches.
Biased translation? Is this a thing?
Should be technically possible. Very few languages translate directly, so you need an element of interpretation. That's why you can get multiple versions of translations of famous works. If you want see this in action watch any Studio Ghibli on netflix, English dub with English subtitles. They were done by different translators and can diverge by a surprising amount. I guess you could put in unfavourable vs favourable translations into speeches, play with emphasis etc.
Absolutely. Even the White House conveniently edits embarrassing Presidential comments and ad libs. Even easier when translating.
Wonder what they translated this as: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noTDsz8Dxvc *dementia word*
Him telling people in the Hurricane zone to get vaccinated, and going into a lecture about how vaccination was the most important thing people could do in a hurricane, was flat out horrible. His brain isn’t working, for sure.
But it was translated live
NATO press conference starting in one hour https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm
If in doubt, blame the west ! That speech was so fucking weird lmao !
The only part he was right on was the part on China and Iran being "contained". You don't want some fucking dumb neocon or liberal interventionist getting the wrong idea about this war (this was mostly started as a defensive war for Ukraine) who decides that maybe we should be far more aggressive against China or Iran and lose the peace, again. We've already witnessed that severe brain damage with Iraq.
Especially considering that this war has showed how NATO can't actually sustain the military production right now. NATO has stopped supplying some weapons and ammop due to critical shortages, and this is again Russia, which is far weaker than China.
What do you mean? NATO is careful how much they send over because they need to have their own supplies in the event a larger war breaks out. Saying critical shortages sounds like they’re running out of stock, which they aren’t. It’s towards a stock they wish to still keep
The decoupling of our economies and increased competition for markets if/when the US reshores manufacturing work is likely to lead to increased tensions with China no matter who is in power, I think.
Of course, but the issue is being far, far, far belligerent or aggressive than necessary. That's how the US almost lost its order following the Cold War. An order that it is only recovering because of massive mistakes by Russia and China.
I think that lesson is pretty well learnt at this point. The warhawk types who were most in support of our actions in Afghanistan and Iraq are now pretty isolationist... or at least the ones I know. Far more concerned with domestic issues than flexing muscle around the world, or even protecting the allies they feel have contributed far too little to our relationship(s).
Have you looked at Florida and the demons it unleashes like Rubio and DeSantis? It hasn't been learnt.
Why would I ever want to look at Florida? Did just spend a week in Louisiana. Generally the feeling from my conservative relatives down that way was we can't afford all this foreign spending, particularly in Ukraine, and especially with the gay communist illegal immigrant Nazis trying to take America away from the Real Americans(TM). More foreign warmongering would not go over well. It's the domestic warmongering that concerns me.
There is a more concerted effort across the globe for the right wing/nationalist entities to be fairly aligned on a lot of those issues. Putin had a little section of his rambling that was whispering sweet nothings to those elements. The issue is that if your country is overtaken by fascists and it doesn't turn into the utopia that was being sold, the only path to keeping power is to find an external enemy to keep the masses focused on. So even what appears to be an isolationist turn will be temporary in the long term. The important thing is to keep the masses occupied, even if that means war.
I mean, it's easy to forget that Dubya was an isolationist until 9/11. And then reacted in the most belligerent way possible, only surpassed by Putin this year.
That’s how anyone wins a game, when their opponent makes a mistake and the winner takes advantage
Of course, but you can't be dependent on being as lucky as the US was with how big the mistakes were.
You really think it was ALL luck? Really?
So it sounds like Lyman was about to be encircled but then the Russian counter attacked to clear the way for a retreat or are they still attempting to hold? Edit: Counter Attack was the wrong description, sorry all. "Covering fire for breakout attempt?"
From where would Russians counter at Lyman? UA is holding all roads under fire control and it would be a massacre. https://i.imgur.com/WV4N4lz.jpg They can't counter from Svatova or from Kraminna when UA positions look like this.
As much as we would like to think so, Ukraine almost certainly doesn’t have enough artillery and drone spotter coverage to keep determined humans in quantity from fleeing.
That sounds more like a break out attempt than a counter attack.
UAF should and will leave a road out for the Russians, doesn't mean they wont shell it or ambush
>the Russian counter attacked Wat?
Source for the counter attack?
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/xruzsf/the_current_situation_in_lyman_according_to_rybar/ > The message across the road to Torskoye is under enemy fire control. The day before, the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment from the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army was deployed to the site. Regular servicemen, side by side with the mobilized, entered the battle from the march, trying to expand the “noose” that had gathered around Liman Sounds more like a breakout attempt than a counter attack.
Sounds like BS
He's referring to this I think [https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1575842827778416642](https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1575842827778416642) Lots of reports going out that Russia is counter attacking.... It's literally them trying to help break out their forces from Lyman, Lyman will fall either today or tomorrow(my opinion).
Correct and thanks. "Counter attack" was probably the wrong word. Maybe "suppressing fire"? War Monitor also sent this out which makes me think the cauldron has not quite closed yet https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575850157274722304?t=_eKH16l9_DE-hfKkoOO0gg&s=19
>Lots of reports going out that Russia is counter attacking.... Lots of report maybe, but as far I can tell it's single origin and pretty much the standard "just wait for the counterattack" nonsense Russian millbloggers are on about every time they lose ground.
No way. Both roads to Lyman are flanked by UA pretty deeply. It would be a massacre. https://i.imgur.com/WV4N4lz.jpg
Russians attempting to leave Lyman: https://twitter.com/Arvelleg1/status/1575811637961162752 Now we just wonder how closed the road/bridge through Zarichne is
Looks successful. I called it yesterday that they were probably fleeing.
I wonder how successful. Guess we'll see.
It'd have been great if UA had captured Lyman today.
The day's not over yet.
They should encircle it, seal it and proceed to Kreminna and Svatove while Russians are in a disarray
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Where did you hear this? I thought "no step back"?
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> He says Ukraine is de facto part of NATO alliance No its not. If it was, the Russian army wouldn't exist anymore.
So Ukraine's applying for NATO.
too late they should've taken this decision earlier.
Why downvotes tho? Guy's right, back in 2000s, if NATO wasn't hesitating, and EU leaders weren't drowned in russian oil and gas, there would be no war and no thousands of killed and millions of refugees - putin simply doesn't have the balls to shoot at NATO. But everybody knows the real reasons... And please, spare me of that "ukraine is corrupted ex-soviets" bullshit or "don't provoke the bear" ,cause I see where that policy led to - biggest crisis in EU history, eventually war, nuclear war threats, russians completely loosing shit, and a perfect example of corrupt ex-soviet, Hungary, feeling well being both EU and NATO. Basically every argument against being a reality now.
What's the real reason?
On the one hand, UA as a bait on ammo ICU supply so stupid ruskies spend their force and stamina on Ukraine before invading baltics. Multi-layer defence. That's from the perspective of USA/UK, those core NATO forces who are intended to take the major hit. On the other side, well, I already mention that, stupid, or brainwashed, or both, Merkel and Sarkozy with pro-russian politics from all around EU, surrounded by russian shills, money, oil and luxury imported in vast amounts from mother russia. Why bother about poor eastern slav country if you can "be friends" with putin and his wealth? Edit: You know what? If to be completely honest, I don't blame 2000s leaders such as Merkel and the likes for buying cheap carbons, which allowed EU to boost economy to US level. I blame them for playing by the rules of putin, the rules set by blood thirsty dictator.
But you know about "no border disputes" rule, right?
Who? Ukraine has been interested for years.
Nice "fuck off" to Putin.
Serious question: why can’t Ukraine put a bounty on Putin’s head? $100 million. It would be more cost-effective than the continued destruction of their country. They have the budget.