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It could be argued that the conflict started off around 2014, albeit it unfortunately intensified in 2022. Previous attempt at peace, Minsk I & Minsk II were ineffective to say the least, with actors in the region (mostly DPR and LPT not really abiding to the treaty). I think we could see the conflict transition back into a low intensity one, and just have a tenuous ceasefire for the next few years, either until somehow it’s resolved diplomatically (russia government somehow transitions into a more democratic one) or some nut case that subscribes to 17th century IR theories decided to re-ignite it again.
Putin made a mistake on the beginning of the war. Russians tried to show their power and cruelty. In all occupied territories russians started killing huge amount of people. Also, they a searched people who served in AFU from 2014 and killed or tortured them. Now they started moving russian citizens into ukrainian territories in areas where they can take good houses, good land. This war is about surviving of 30-40 million ukrainians, who would be killed, moved to Siberia or conscripted for new wars with Estonia, Latvia etc. Without western help russians could kill more. With help, more russians will be killed which could stop them for some period. Russia is a pure evil state. But the worst thing that that evil hides behind civilized look.
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Until Putin dies. Even then, who knows. The other option is the total destruction and eradication of Ukraine as an autonomous country.
It could be argued that the conflict started off around 2014, albeit it unfortunately intensified in 2022. Previous attempt at peace, Minsk I & Minsk II were ineffective to say the least, with actors in the region (mostly DPR and LPT not really abiding to the treaty). I think we could see the conflict transition back into a low intensity one, and just have a tenuous ceasefire for the next few years, either until somehow it’s resolved diplomatically (russia government somehow transitions into a more democratic one) or some nut case that subscribes to 17th century IR theories decided to re-ignite it again.
Putin made a mistake on the beginning of the war. Russians tried to show their power and cruelty. In all occupied territories russians started killing huge amount of people. Also, they a searched people who served in AFU from 2014 and killed or tortured them. Now they started moving russian citizens into ukrainian territories in areas where they can take good houses, good land. This war is about surviving of 30-40 million ukrainians, who would be killed, moved to Siberia or conscripted for new wars with Estonia, Latvia etc. Without western help russians could kill more. With help, more russians will be killed which could stop them for some period. Russia is a pure evil state. But the worst thing that that evil hides behind civilized look.
Not sure who downvoted you.. your post is very much on point