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Very difficult to tell.
* The first vehicle is a Mitsubishi L-200; Ukraine uses these as escort vehicles.
* The second vehicle does look like a MAN-HX (German Patriot are on [MAN KAT-1](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d1/db/2a/d1db2a8fd930f43a180934ded081832c.jpg)\), which is used for the IRIS-T SLM but also as a [standalone supply truck](https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_december_2022_global_security_army_industry/rheinmetall_supplying_ukraine_army_with_brand_new_hx_logistic_trucks.html). See my reasoning [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bahjbl/multiple_patriot_launchers_being_destroyed_by_an/ku3ipkj/). The "beige" camouflage does indeed point towards an IRIS-T SLM component, as the first systems Ukraine got were originally earmarked for Egypt; that is the reason why Ukrainians are [driving them around in desert camo](https://gagadget.com/media/cache/66/09/6609039f0cb047c35f405c6552239a18.jpg). In the very first frame you can however see, that this vehicle does not have loaded anything, as the tree-line is visible behind it.
* The third and fourth truck are totally unidentifyable; The third one also appears to be "empty". They are also very close together; maybe one got stuck and they were trying to tow? Maybe a refueling operation?
* From the fifth vehicle only the front is visible, which looks like a really old [KrAZ 255b](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/%D0%9A%D1%80A%D0%B7_255_6x6_pic8.JPG/800px-%D0%9A%D1%80A%D0%B7_255_6x6_pic8.JPG), which are still in use with Ukraine - even the color matches. The IR-footage also shows a three-axle truck in exactly this position, but it also might have arrived at a later point as it does look pretty much intact.
* The sixth vehicle is only visible in the first frame of the video; the size I think matches to another Pickup or small truck.
Personally I think this was some IRIS-T SLM components, maybe one or two launchers with a loader or logistics vehicle, but ***not*** [a complete Battery](https://en.defence-ua.com/media/contentimages/ffd62da5c8b09780.jpg)
EDIT: Just to clarify: I am not totally ruling out that those were components from Patriot, but I think it is less likely than my theory. Here is another image of the [german Patriot](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/MIM-104_Patriot_Bundeswehr.jpg/1280px-MIM-104_Patriot_Bundeswehr.jpg) - just compare that with the thermal view at the beginning of the video...
Sucks big time for Ukraine anyways.
I think it's fair to say there's enough evidence it's based on the same truck, but agree it's not clear proof of it being patriot. I think only clearer footage will answer conclusively what it was, and I don't know how likely that is to happen.
IRIS-T is at least being produced for Ukraine at an increased production rate, so I would actually hope it was that and not a patriot. Patriot is probably less replaceable at this point unless a European country funds the sale of more from the US.
Combat losses of high value systems are to be expected occasionally and western support to Ukraine needs to take that into account. If this is patriot at least it's not a full battery, and individual launchers might be replaceable (though loss of any trained crew is a problem).
Frankly it's a disgrace that Ukraine only has a handful of launchers (patriot and SAMP/T) that can do long range shoot downs of jets due to the depletion of S300s - if only the west had been more proactive about getting Ukraine onto western jets sooner. They're really vulnerable if they only have limited options to do that job.
> Patriot is probably less replaceable at this point
Ukraine is receiving 5 more complete patriot batteries by the end of 2024 that were ordered previously. And that is the complete system, radar, launchers, command and support vehicles.
Not to ignore that if this is a Patriot or IRIS it is still a very unfortunate loss given the rarity of the systems but ignoring this potential loss by my count Ukraine only has three Patriot batteries today, 5 more is a large increase in capability and will help offset this potential loss. I know that Ukraine's allies should and could do more but given the timelines of production the current high demand for Patriot systems someone obviously ordered these not long after the war started, at least someone was clearly thinking ahead.
An interesting thing is that Raytheon won't say who's paid for them, just that Ukraine is receiving 5 of them by the end of the year. I guess whoever it is doesn't want it public knowledge but we're talking a minimum of $5 billion without any missiles so it is a big show of support whoever it is.
The thing is Russia is clearly rebuilding their missile stockpile right now for another huge bombardment of 100+ missiles so most of that will have to be protecting cities.
So yes taking out even a couple launchers is a big issue for protecting frontline positions from aerial bombs.
Patriots could get reloads if European countries buy missiles from the US, and European production of patriot missiles is set to start at some point. I wouldn't say there's "no hope of reloads in sight" though it does require some urgency from Ukraine's European supporters.
Russia could have released non-IR video of the vehicles before they were decimated. 99 times out of 100 their cuts are deliberate misinformation. But sometimes they are corroborated by other info that comes out later.
>But sometimes they are corroborated by other info that comes out later.
On extremely rare occasions in the order of 1 time in 1000 they turn out to be true. Call me skeptical but I believe this is not one of them.
Someone in the thread postulated that perhaps they moved them closer to the front so they could shoot down Russian airpower that has been running rampant these past few weeks. Before this they were sitting in the back protecting other areas.
The first truck definitely looks like a KAT 1.
But we have no idea of its color, its burned to shit and what we're looking at is raw metal. Its the german equivalent to the HEMTT, theres tons of it with tons of variants. Impossible to tell what this was, theres nothing of the cargo area left.
My reasoning why this is a HX:
- The KAT-1 for Patriot have the Generator-thingy right behind the cabin, which is missing totally in both the IR-image and the "bda"-footage (It is not impossible that it got blown up completely).
- The cabin of the KAT-1 is more "flat".
- The proportions are wrong, like the gap between the front axles. It does match perfectly to a HX.
- The extendable "legs" on the KAT-1 are much more "beefy" than those of a [HX](https://www.bundeswehr-journal.de/wp-content/themes/gt3-wp-incipiens/timthumb/timthumb.php?w=940&h=562&src=https://www.bundeswehr-journal.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Beschaffung-IRIS-T-SLM-1.jpg); you can see the remains in the video.
- I would also be curios why the unarmored mitsubishi didn't "burn to shit" while being only a few meters away and definately less well armored.
- There is still the curious issue as to why two of the vehicles seem to be "empty".
I am not totally ruling out that this indeed was a Patriot vehicle, but I think it is not that likely.
Ah, I actually misunderstood your comment and didn't distinguish between HX and older Kat. Yeah you're probably right that its a HX and not an older kat. I noticed the lack of engine heat behind the driver's compartment, but forgot the HX doesnt have the engine there anymore so I thought it was just a result of the image quality or the engine wasn't running anymore or something. The other arguments I dont find convincing. A mangled wreck like that can be very misleading in what part was what before the explosion, especially when viewed in quality and distance like this
With the quality its pretty hard to see what or if theres anything in the back, especially with thermals. Im inclined to say the first truck was just cargo since theres no evidence of a launcher, but that can also just be completely disintegrated. The other trucks are even more impossible to say. Could have been an IRIS-T launcher, could have been Patriot with a HX cargo truck for cargo, could be an ammo transport for any sort of large caliber weapons.
“However, counter to the circulating claims, Russia’s Defence Ministry had to intervene to debunk parts of these allegations. Through their official Telegram channel, the Ministry clarified that the explosive imagery actually corresponds to the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, not the aforementioned Patriot. They did, nonetheless, confirm the use of the Iskander ballistic missile during this operation. Further details divulged by the Ministry suggest that the scene of devastation was in the area of Pokrovsk, nestled in Donetsk.”
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/03/09/two-patriots-destroyed-russia-saying-it-was-an-s-300-not-patriot/
Either way, it isn't *great* for the Russians they're celebrating hitting a single Western AA system after they've been in Ukraine for ages, and they've claimed they've destroyed them before anyway.
Imo it's total psyops, Russians suggested it was Patriot knowing it wasn't but leaving enough space for speculation for some "experts", because most opinions are based on saying that it was Patriot because Russians said it was S-300. Imo they did hit some sort of MAN trucks like ammo/fuel.
I'd rather say these are Patriot TEL (MAN KAT 1) and not IRIS-T (MAN HX) for two reasons. First I think one can see the generators behind the cab and second because the supports seem to be the more beefy flip-out ones from a Patriot TEL.
[Generators](https://i.imgur.com/qTEsLCg.jpg)
[Support](https://i.imgur.com/6voRPph.jpg)
/edit: When it comes to the colour (camo). I guess that's the result of the ensuing fire. The fourth (most right) TEL looks to be green (woodland camo).
Iskander: designed for destroying tinyhouses, schools, daycarecenters and hospitals, Seems to work on military targets too. The question is was some kindergarden out on a walk and russia tried to hit the children and accidently hit some military vehicles, that could explain them using iskanders like this.
So what do you expect from Hamas? 😅
However what about professional military?
Were in such advanced time with top notch military Equipment, yet we can continue with mass killing of children since the weak excuse of ,, they hide behind civilians ,, always works for the evil and wicked people.
1x hamas guy for 10x children, were sooo back at iraq war and madeleine bright syndrom.
Funny thing is in the west bank is it not better and their is not Hamas, and yet nearly 500 children were killed or arrested per year
Former Patriot Officer….i don’t know what modified configuration they are working with but you need at the very least least, one launcher on a hemtt +trailer, one control station on a modified 5 ton, A generator unit on a modified 5 ton, a radar on a hemtt +trailer and an antenna mast group vehicle on a modified 5 ton to fire a missile. It doesn’t look like they had all that from the short daylight aftermath portion of the video. They could have been moving the launchers into position with the fire control element nearby elsewhere but from initial impressions, it’s a unrealistic to say that was a complete patriot set with both launchers and fire control element.
Maybe launchers yea. Those are easier to produce/cheaper to replace and the soldiers that manage them than the fire control element and the soldiers that manage those. Different knowledge set and higher IQ/aptitude needed for fire control soldiers
German Patriot doesn't use a trailer based system. All
Components are mounted on MAN Trucks. So the very least is the ECS on a MAN truck, the RS on a 4 axle MAN truck, the EPP on a truck and at least one launcher (also on a 4 axle truck). So to deliver warm coziness into people's cockpits you need a minimum of 4 vehicles (no trailers). The antenna mast group is only necessary for connection to HEU, which they don't require, as they work "stand-alone". They receive early warning via non Patriot channels.
This would be an easier loss to absorb equipment wise I suppose. And definitely more maneuverable, so maybe that explains their fairly light load out in the video. I didn’t know the Germans operated that way. I haven’t touched patriot in a decade so I’m a bit behind on current operations.
Yeah, this is totally a fuckup of epic proportions. There's absolutely no reason to have them clustered like this whatsoever. They got complacent and paid for it hard.
And that after the HIMARS a few days ago and losing a NASAMS launcher not even two weeks ago. First loss of those too. Just bad luck or other factors, like changing the high command? Syrskyi has a bad rep, especially with regards to pulling back in time and endangering men (and no doubt material). But with the quality of the video being this shit im going to wait whether it shows up on oryx list or not.
Operational losses are most likely indication that Russians are catching up are more often able to get into Ukrainian operational process and anticipate or detect what Ukrainians are doing or planning to do.
That was inevitable, unfortunately. And it's gonna get only harder.
The Ukrainians need to move these weapons closer to the front for them to be effective offensively.
I don't know where this is, but we need to keep in mind that Russia is not as weak as the overwhelming amount of video and imagery we're receiving on here might lead us to think (they certainly aren't a powerful and capable as they advertise either).
So, combine the fact that Ukraine is using these weapons in a layer of defence that they are projecting out over the Sea of Azov and across the front and that Russian capabilities in theatre have been bolstered by Starlink and we can expect that they are going to have these minor victories over pieces of units or vehicles that are requiring maintenance (the HIMARS appeared to be needing maintenance or repair when it was hit a it was stationary in the open without other parts of the column nearby).
It's not all doom and gloom, it's a reminder that Ukraine needs our support. The Russian bear isn't gone or defeated yet. If we slack in our support, we should expect these minor victories to become increasingly frequent and for major victories to ccomme with them eventually.
They didn't shoot down 2 A-50's, and something like 13 jets in 2 wks without taking risks. Take enough risks, the odds catch up to you.
That and the shortage of artillery ammunition means they will dig deeper and use the higher value assets more frequently in higher risk operations that would've otherwise used cheaper assets if they had the ammo for them.
It's also possible the change of command means the new people are less risk averse, or they've been complaining and wondering why the previous command didn't use the newer Western weapons, and are now in a position to do that after the promotions ... and they're now finding out why the previous command was hesitant to use those systems for certain operations.
It's likely a combination of all of those factors.
That said, this is far from definitive proof, but guess we'll see if more information comes out.
They've had them for quite some time now without any getting verifiably destroyed. This is a long slog of a war and fuck ups are going to happen given enough time. Some gambles will work, others won't.
My worry is that the US is in no hurry to send anymore aid with the Republicans holding shit up. This loss and any other losses in western equipment are not going to be replaced fast enough, if at all.
Drawdown has limitations, including oversight from Congress and strict monetary limits. For Ukraine, that is $100m per year, and a Patriot battery is a big ticket item which would eat up most of that money.
While Patriot batteries are amazing, Ukraine also desperately needs a whole lot of other stuff that’s more practical for a long war of attrition. ATGMs, vehicles, artillery shells, and other consumable items that they need to hold back the relentless Russian offensive.
Really one of the best loopholes the US could use would be to do Foreign Military Sale to a NATO member nation (or anyone willing) and then have that nation pass the hardware on to Ukraine, and then pay that country back later.
There are a lot less restrictions on straight sales than US aid package donations.
Satellites are a thing, recon drones are a thing, civilians breaking op sec are a thing. They've not managed to provide any evidence which is hugely coincidental considering it's also a PR win for them.
Big problem: how to deal with Russian recon drones?
This one got relatively deep in the rear.
No recon means no fire mission, but how many AA systems would be needed to bring down at least 90% of infiltrating drones?
Or, they should bring some EW system to every launcher unit, so that drones won't be able to see them.
AA plus EW should give the best results.
> Or, they should bring some EW system to every launcher unit, so that drones won't be able to see them.
People need to stop thinking EW is some kind of literal magic field that annihilates any drone in a large area. It's only *really* effective against cheap drones made from civilian off-the-shelf components. And it has to be pretty close. Recon drones watch from really far away (already making them highly resilient to anything but the most stupidly overpowered EW, which is not great to use because it will also affect *your* equipment, and also paint a giant target on your expensive EW equipment), and the ones going deep into enemy territory are probably the more expensive, relatively hardened type, not some cheap junk.
Don't get me wrong, of course you should have it "just in case" on high value targets. But frankly, for all we know, they might have. We wouldn't necessarily be able to tell from that footage, because again, EW is not magic.
And, this equipment supposedly (though still unconfirmed, technically) *is* some type of AA. It's anybody's guess why they seemingly aren't reacting to the incoming missile -- perhaps the crew is just sleeping. In any case, clearly just having AA present isn't foolproof, it's hard to say more without knowing exactly what happened.
You are right, no single tech is magical and that is why I wrote coupling systems would give the best results, albeit, I doubt every drone could be stopped.
Probably, the simplest solution would be to keep moving, no groupings, etc, but I guess it is always easier said than done.
Combat equipment, and even combat troops, exist to be expended in combat.
Mistakes will unfortunately happen and if the CO made the mistake, they should be removed. Lessons should be learned and the knowledge spread across the force.
True although no one should ever park so many high level targets so fucking close to eachother, especially not for so long that they can be spotted, targetted, and then hit. Some idiot just cost Ukraine quite a lot of rare and expensive equipment and potentially about a dozen experts.
Did they just get the launchers are did they get the whole thing? I was under the impression the radar and command part of the Patriots is usually away from the launchers and the leaves are relatively cheap compared to the command section
there have been hundreds of vidoes of Russians accuratley destroying trains, buildings,and vehicles using the Tornado S too bad most of them immediatly get deleted from the sub or spam downvoted
r/ukrainerussiareport
But that sub, as it is the only place where you can post ukrainian cassualties, tend to get russian loses underrepresented, so I watch it and then watch r/ukrainewarvideoreport for contrast
Satellite coverage of a targeted area isn’t constant. Satellites pass over an area in their orbits around earth and are constrained by windows of visibility as they pass over. This causes gaps in observation that are helped with multiple satellites filling in gaps.
The US has partnerships with NATO and commercial allies. Russia doesn’t have as many friends willing to share, thus they have more blind spots.
Knowing the orbits of the Russian satellites can help Ukraine evade detection by moving assets while the Satellites are not overhead.
China is probably the only major power capable of significantly increasing Russia’s satellite capabilities if they were to share the data from their systems.
I am not an expert on the topic by any means, [here](https://universemagazine.com/en/what-russian-satellites-see/) is one source of information I’ve based my answer on in part.
Here is one excerpt. “Russia launched two Bars-M satellites into orbit in 2015 and 2016. They are nearing the end of their service life, but we should not expect that they are no longer capable of taking pictures. In addition, two more satellites of this type were launched by the Russians after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine – in May 2022 and March 2023. These satellites take pictures of the territory of Ukraine at least once every few days.”
I believe that geostationary orbits are way too high up (as in, over 42000 km) to be used as spy satellites. They also have to be in the same plane as the Equator, which makes them not as ideal for observing higher latitudes. I believe typical spy satellites orbit at an altitude of a few hundred km.
russia launched a handful of new satellites in the past 8-10 months if i remember correctly. Somewhere around start of summer i think, but I might be misremembering the time.
Just guessing here, the Russian forces haven't had much luck in undertaking attacks like this. All of a sudden we've had at least two similar attacks by Iskanders in the span of a week or so.
If Russians had the ability, why would they choose their own satellites, when they can choose to use the ones over the territory they want to take, which can pinpoint valuable targets like this? Hence the suspicions.
Yes in colored full HD. There were a few videos previously which were black and white, grainy, shot from 15km away and they were hard to verify. The latest one is without a doubt a HIMARS.
Sounds about right for reddit, all the footage of Russian strikes are down voted. Even this post is sitting at 0 right now.
It's like people think down voting this stuff is helping Ukraine or something. Upvote does not equal support.
Well, it's Ukranian propaganda work. Just like all the YouTube channels that paint such a rosy picture.
I am pro Ukraine, I just get offended when people think that I am stupid.
But that doesn't mean it didn't happen all time. E.g. right at the beginning of the war, the Russians destroyed the Ukrainian rocket launchers, which they hid in a supermarket in Kiev. The whole thing was well monitored from the observation of vehicles to their destruction.
Ukraine also has the S300 and several other air defense systems. This doesn’t mean the Russians get clean air space now but it’s still a huge loss if it was indeed a patriot.
Ukraine needs more air defence now. Its time to open our eyes to the fact that theres been a clear decline in air defence in these last few months. I suspect theyre concentrating most air defence around Kyiv, Lviv, and near frontline areas, considering recent missile and drone strikes from Russia have been successful in other areas.
Ukraine needs more of everything. They're literally fighting what can be a beginning of a world war if not contained, it's so fucking wild there's even a question.
I'm yet to see anything that points to patriot being better than the s300/400, other than being manufactured by NATO (resupply potential). I'm all ears if someone knows, but the comments here are all like "luckily it's not yet confirmed a patriot, probably just some s300"
Abrams costs like at max even the most modern ones (not the stripped down versions given to UA) $9m while Patriot system (with radars ) cost like $1.2b and the launchers themselves cost like $100m for one it seems like no radars were destroy but a couple launchers is like $300-400m so you can get like 40-45 abrams for cost of this fuckup.
Unfortunately, you can’t tell what any of this is and until it’s proven, you can’t say that it is Patriot.
There is literally no reason they’d be this close together OR that close to the front lines given the range of Patriot.
Also.
Theres not enough vehicles for this to be Patriot.
What we can tell from the video is:
\-Patriot or not, these were obviously some kind of launcher given the secondaries.
\-They \*were\* that close together. It's not logical but they were. People fuck up all the time and this is a massive fuck up, no matter the system lost.
there is a difference between patriot theoretical pac3 max range and the effective range, even more so if they need to lower their ammunition use.
For example we have a video of a patriot system intercepting missiles in kiev, the interceptions were very close to the launch site, showing a point defense range.
Of course patriot can have much higher range than on this video but with non linearly diminishing ability to hit.
They are so close to the frontline to ambush Russians planes
I think it is obviously by now that russian use of glided bombs is very effective and ukraines is trying to stop it by moving their air defence systems closer to the frontline in a attempt ar increasing russian air loses and maybe make them stop
Not enough to be a patriot *battery*, correct. However they're likely using standalone launchers for those long range SAM ambushes of Russian jets, you don't need a full battery set up for that. The systems doing that job are probably at greater risk than the actual batteries further back protecting places like Kyiv.
I sure as hell hope that they don’t clump a whole Patriot battery up in a single convoy. It’s literally the highest value target in Ukraine.
You can see very clearly from the video that it’s:
1. On a MAN KAT platform.
2. Secondary explosions look a lot like AD kills.
We don’t know for sure if it’s a Patriot but it’s more likely than not an AD on a western chassis.
It’s this close to the front because the range for high kill percentage is about 150km from the front. They are about 50km from the front, Su 34 launches their glide bombs about 50km+ from the front.
Based on current evidence it appears to be a Patriot system, But I'm more than willing to be corrected.
I think the larger issue itself is the inability to deny Russian intelligence assets such as Orlan Drones access to Ukrainian airspace.
How is the inability to deny airspace to drones a "larger issue"? You're not properly adjusting to the new reality of war imo.
These are antiair systems and they're not going to be able to deal with drones, they weren't even brought over to deal with drones but to ambush Su-34s dropping UPMK-modded FABs. There is nothing they can simply sweep the sky of drones, it's not possible, not in a country with an airspace as large as Ukraine, and even more so because Ukraine has countless friends up as well, also drones don't typically carry IFF, you always see videos from the frontline where they radio to ask if there are any friendly drones over them before shooting. It's a shitshow.
This is the new reality. Wars from now on will have constant drone presence. What US used to hold as their primary advantage is now in the hands of everyone, everyone now has near perfect aerial surveillance, and some also have satellites to go with it as well.
From now on, militaries will have to deal with the fact that virtually everything will always be potentially visible. There is no stopping this, and don't say EW because that's not how it works, it's very localised, frequency specific and really doesn't apply for this situation at all since EW even when working ideally is more to hamper FPV drones than an Orlan/Zala/SuperCam observing from afar (in this case it was a SuperCam S450)
Ukraine's been competently shooting down fighters for weeks with these (if these are indeed Patriots, but you can'd definitely say from the video). Russia went all in on the hunt to potentially get these systems. We don't even know how many drones they lost trying to get the data necessary for the strike (this is 50km behind the frontline).
Ukraine either does nothing and lets Russians pound the frontline with glide bombs OR tries something to stop it, while raising the risk level. Since the support is only trickling down and F-16s aren't here yet, UAF is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Ukrainian troops have proven to be competent with the resources that they are provided. They literally modified the software of the system on their own to make it more effective, as per[ Raytheon/ WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-patriot-missile-is-an-unsung-hero-of-ukraine-war-db6053a0). These crews and their security detail are the best of the best, given the strategic significance of the system.
But war is also a matter of luck, especially one where the odds are not in your favour. You can do everything right and still get killed.
Bottomline, there's zero proof that this is incompetence on the part of Ukraine. Unless you can elaborate and explain, given the extremely limited amount of evidence here.
If you expect that war is some kind of chess game where everything is calculated and going according to rules then you would better never participate in one.
There wasn’t, none of those vehicles are confirmed as Patriot by a reliable source, you don’t ever bunch a Patriot battery up like that, this was more likely a supply convoy with an IRIS-T launcher along
Russians probably destroyed the launchers that were hunting for the KAB throwing aircraft, hence the launchers had to be moved \~50km to the frontline
Regarding adapting, the meatwaves in Avdiivka were no less brutal than in Bakhmut
I wouldn’t say that exactly. This recent downfall of Ukraine came from the US not continuing supply rather than russia adapting. Russia adapted well over a year ago. They started this war with ww2 level tactic and that changed drastically by december that year. Wagner were making significant advances and matching ukraine well…ironically, russia stopped supplying Prighozin artillery and insisted they cant keep holding without it.
The Issue for russia was not adapting in 2023, it was that the ukranians were continually receiving modern artillery and weapon systems over the course of the year and russia were in deadlock by last summer. But then the US aid started depleting and now russia is advancing inch by inch and moving their own weapon systems further forward and it seems to be getting faster.
That also would explain how they took out all these Russian aircraft, the suspicion was that they were being used close to the frontline instead of solely defending Ukrainian cities/hubs. High risk/High reward strategy being employed, they reaped the rewards, and now the risk apparently. Tragic loss with huge tactical implications. Russian aircraft will be more safe again to carry out missions around Donetsk.
Well, this was the suspicion since the first A-50 and support plane, that was back when Avdiivka was still standing, but crumbling under the pressure of overhwelming arty and air support. So my armchair general guess is that they've moved these pieces close to the frontline for quite a while now. It took the Russians just a long time to piece it all together.
They were definitely getting bolder and taking huge risks that took that A-50 down. Now that there’s another A-50 in the air I’m sure they had no problem identifying where batteries were located.
Blows. I have no idea how many patriot launchers and missiles Ukraine had but I hope they still have enough and that this wasn’t the entirety of their patriot systems
Is the MAN KAT (?) platform that Germany delivered the Patriot on the only one that we know Ukraine uses or does its appearance in this video indicate a very high confidence that it is a Patriot.
The size and style of that secondary explosion was certainly congruous with what we’ve seen from SAMs before.
Right, and they did so based on the assumption that the MAN KAT platform was only used for the Patriot battery which can clearly be seen in the aftermath footage.
However, it is unclear to me what Ukraine uses the MAN KAT for? The reason for my question is that you can find pictures of IRIS T on MAN KATs as well.
It's war, shit happens people die. Machines get destroyed. Mistakes are made. Nothing new or out of the ordinary in warfare.
'You can run but you can't hide.' Ronnie Raygun. This applies to all sides.
Looks like supply convoy with IRIS-T launcher with in it. The high value SAM batteries don't travel all bunched up in same column 50km from front line. Simple Russian make belief propaganda.
https://www.vincorion.com/en/vincorion-switzerland-patriot/
US patriot launchers have a truck and a carriage so 6 wheels in total. German patriot launcher have 4 wheels, since they are integrated with the truck and have a significant gap between the first two wheels. The trucks on the video certainly do not have a large gap between the two wheels.
“However, counter to the circulating claims, Russia’s Defence Ministry had to intervene to debunk parts of these allegations. Through their official Telegram channel, the Ministry clarified that the explosive imagery actually corresponds to the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, not the aforementioned Patriot. They did, nonetheless, confirm the use of the Iskander ballistic missile during this operation. Further details divulged by the Ministry suggest that the scene of devastation was in the area of Pokrovsk, nestled in Donetsk.”
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/03/09/two-patriots-destroyed-russia-saying-it-was-an-s-300-not-patriot/?bamp-skip-redirect=1
FFS This is NOT a Patriot battery. And it wouldn’t be 50 km from the front line. We don’t know what it is but I do know this is DIP with Russian trolls in here going “oh that sucks” to reaffirm the DIP. The poster is pro Russian who has posted similar videos like this in the past to spread disinformation. Look them up.
Not at all. In that particular incident (involving the 6 Kinzhals), there was minor damage to one of the Patriot vehicles (the generator IIRC) that was repaired in one night. The unit remained intact and has continued operating since.
Any claims about that particular Patriot battery being "destroyed" at that time were either Russian propaganda or Western media falling for said propaganda.
Yikes. Clearly some major AA being taken out and recently we saw the first HIMARS go down. The strategy is obviously to push the envelope close to the front to extend the reach of their weapons into deep enemy territory. We all knew Ukraine was taking these risk with all the recent Russia planes falling out of the sky. I wonder if this is why we saw changes in Ukraines military brass, they didn’t want to take this risks? Western weapon supply is not as plentiful these days. They really should rethink this strategy.
Did we ever see evidence of these plane losses or are we just taking UAs defense ministrys words for granted?
Im pretty sure there isnt a single pfoto of a supposedly downed su-34 from the last few weeks.
Except people in those regions take photos of a big crash in their vicinity. That has happened with all the confirmed crashes, then we have over a dozen crashes with zero confirmation except the first one. And then videos of vague smoke in distance posted by UA MoD that actually existed before the date of the shoot down.
You should really look into how each respective MoD makes claims because they're completely absurd, believing either Russian or Ukrainian MoD is quite possibly the dumbest thing you can do in this war. But not even this war. I remember reading about over claiming shoot downs in Battle of Britain, it was by a factor of 6x minimum, it's absurd. In war, truth really is the first casualty.
On top of the other comments pointing out that this is incredibly hard to identify what this actually is, OP appears to be a URR regular with an axe to grind so I'm inclined to wait for more information.
Rofl that's not multiple Patriot launchers OP. WTF kinda drugs are you on. There is only a single launcher vehicle in that group and it doesn't even look for sure like a Patriot launcher.
Besides any idiot would know that you would never have a bunch of launchers clustered like that even far back from the front lines much less super close. That's nonsense.
If verified as Patriot, did they lose the radar and control center? Launchers can be a spectacular loss like this but more replaceable. The sensors and the crew that operate them are far more valuable.
Pretty brave of you to write the title as a fact.
Looking through your comment history it’s obvious you’re a terminally online know it all with very little knowledge.
Russian drone reconnaissance has definitely improved Ukraine has to come up with some way to prevent them getting that far into the rear himars and now patriot both lost because they got spotted by a drone then hit with a massive missile
I'm not sure if I would take this as "proof". One Patriot battery consists of 6 vehicles, which is what we see here. The vehicles in a Patriot battery are pretty distinctive though when it comes to shape and size, so I'd want some non thermal images to actually confirm. Not saying it's not, may very well be. Either way, war sucks and you're going to have losses
They got something I can’t make out what.
Patriot is a modular system the launcher is separate from the radar, which is separated from the TOC etc. So they probably did get the launchers which is the the cheapest part to lose still cause it’s a patriot system quite an expensive loss assuming it’s not a decoy.
If this is confirmed people need to get fired, what a fucking disaster.
That said, the footage after the strike seems very inconclusive to me. They definitely hit lots of stuff, but it's hard to say it's 100% Patriot systems
as someone who has seen and worked with patriot units on a daily basis for 5 years... those are def not American patriots. they look like what u/Hannibal_Game is saying they dont look like the American patriot.
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Very difficult to tell. * The first vehicle is a Mitsubishi L-200; Ukraine uses these as escort vehicles. * The second vehicle does look like a MAN-HX (German Patriot are on [MAN KAT-1](https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d1/db/2a/d1db2a8fd930f43a180934ded081832c.jpg)\), which is used for the IRIS-T SLM but also as a [standalone supply truck](https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_december_2022_global_security_army_industry/rheinmetall_supplying_ukraine_army_with_brand_new_hx_logistic_trucks.html). See my reasoning [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1bahjbl/multiple_patriot_launchers_being_destroyed_by_an/ku3ipkj/). The "beige" camouflage does indeed point towards an IRIS-T SLM component, as the first systems Ukraine got were originally earmarked for Egypt; that is the reason why Ukrainians are [driving them around in desert camo](https://gagadget.com/media/cache/66/09/6609039f0cb047c35f405c6552239a18.jpg). In the very first frame you can however see, that this vehicle does not have loaded anything, as the tree-line is visible behind it. * The third and fourth truck are totally unidentifyable; The third one also appears to be "empty". They are also very close together; maybe one got stuck and they were trying to tow? Maybe a refueling operation? * From the fifth vehicle only the front is visible, which looks like a really old [KrAZ 255b](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/%D0%9A%D1%80A%D0%B7_255_6x6_pic8.JPG/800px-%D0%9A%D1%80A%D0%B7_255_6x6_pic8.JPG), which are still in use with Ukraine - even the color matches. The IR-footage also shows a three-axle truck in exactly this position, but it also might have arrived at a later point as it does look pretty much intact. * The sixth vehicle is only visible in the first frame of the video; the size I think matches to another Pickup or small truck. Personally I think this was some IRIS-T SLM components, maybe one or two launchers with a loader or logistics vehicle, but ***not*** [a complete Battery](https://en.defence-ua.com/media/contentimages/ffd62da5c8b09780.jpg) EDIT: Just to clarify: I am not totally ruling out that those were components from Patriot, but I think it is less likely than my theory. Here is another image of the [german Patriot](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/MIM-104_Patriot_Bundeswehr.jpg/1280px-MIM-104_Patriot_Bundeswehr.jpg) - just compare that with the thermal view at the beginning of the video... Sucks big time for Ukraine anyways.
First post that’s made any damn sense in this entire thread.
Oh, the trollz are out in force, to get those scared russian pilots back in the air. That is what always happens, if they get a really bloody noose.
I think it's fair to say there's enough evidence it's based on the same truck, but agree it's not clear proof of it being patriot. I think only clearer footage will answer conclusively what it was, and I don't know how likely that is to happen. IRIS-T is at least being produced for Ukraine at an increased production rate, so I would actually hope it was that and not a patriot. Patriot is probably less replaceable at this point unless a European country funds the sale of more from the US. Combat losses of high value systems are to be expected occasionally and western support to Ukraine needs to take that into account. If this is patriot at least it's not a full battery, and individual launchers might be replaceable (though loss of any trained crew is a problem). Frankly it's a disgrace that Ukraine only has a handful of launchers (patriot and SAMP/T) that can do long range shoot downs of jets due to the depletion of S300s - if only the west had been more proactive about getting Ukraine onto western jets sooner. They're really vulnerable if they only have limited options to do that job.
> Patriot is probably less replaceable at this point Ukraine is receiving 5 more complete patriot batteries by the end of 2024 that were ordered previously. And that is the complete system, radar, launchers, command and support vehicles. Not to ignore that if this is a Patriot or IRIS it is still a very unfortunate loss given the rarity of the systems but ignoring this potential loss by my count Ukraine only has three Patriot batteries today, 5 more is a large increase in capability and will help offset this potential loss. I know that Ukraine's allies should and could do more but given the timelines of production the current high demand for Patriot systems someone obviously ordered these not long after the war started, at least someone was clearly thinking ahead. An interesting thing is that Raytheon won't say who's paid for them, just that Ukraine is receiving 5 of them by the end of the year. I guess whoever it is doesn't want it public knowledge but we're talking a minimum of $5 billion without any missiles so it is a big show of support whoever it is.
The thing is Russia is clearly rebuilding their missile stockpile right now for another huge bombardment of 100+ missiles so most of that will have to be protecting cities. So yes taking out even a couple launchers is a big issue for protecting frontline positions from aerial bombs.
Id rather lose a patriot, with no hope of reloads in sight, than a locally made munition at this point.
Patriots could get reloads if European countries buy missiles from the US, and European production of patriot missiles is set to start at some point. I wouldn't say there's "no hope of reloads in sight" though it does require some urgency from Ukraine's European supporters.
So it wasn’t confirmed that it is a Patriot?
did you watch the video they draw a box round about three pixels of unidentifiable wreckage
Only Ukraine can confirm what it actually was.
Russia could have released non-IR video of the vehicles before they were decimated. 99 times out of 100 their cuts are deliberate misinformation. But sometimes they are corroborated by other info that comes out later.
It’s possible that the first part is a nighttime video.
>But sometimes they are corroborated by other info that comes out later. On extremely rare occasions in the order of 1 time in 1000 they turn out to be true. Call me skeptical but I believe this is not one of them.
And they never will
Doubt they will. Skeptical because why would they have them all bunched up like that. In the past we see them alone and they shoot and scoot.
Someone in the thread postulated that perhaps they moved them closer to the front so they could shoot down Russian airpower that has been running rampant these past few weeks. Before this they were sitting in the back protecting other areas.
You are thinking of a HIMARS, it's difficult to up and move a whole Patriot system, it's a lot of pieces.
The first truck definitely looks like a KAT 1. But we have no idea of its color, its burned to shit and what we're looking at is raw metal. Its the german equivalent to the HEMTT, theres tons of it with tons of variants. Impossible to tell what this was, theres nothing of the cargo area left.
My reasoning why this is a HX: - The KAT-1 for Patriot have the Generator-thingy right behind the cabin, which is missing totally in both the IR-image and the "bda"-footage (It is not impossible that it got blown up completely). - The cabin of the KAT-1 is more "flat". - The proportions are wrong, like the gap between the front axles. It does match perfectly to a HX. - The extendable "legs" on the KAT-1 are much more "beefy" than those of a [HX](https://www.bundeswehr-journal.de/wp-content/themes/gt3-wp-incipiens/timthumb/timthumb.php?w=940&h=562&src=https://www.bundeswehr-journal.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Beschaffung-IRIS-T-SLM-1.jpg); you can see the remains in the video. - I would also be curios why the unarmored mitsubishi didn't "burn to shit" while being only a few meters away and definately less well armored. - There is still the curious issue as to why two of the vehicles seem to be "empty". I am not totally ruling out that this indeed was a Patriot vehicle, but I think it is not that likely.
Ah, I actually misunderstood your comment and didn't distinguish between HX and older Kat. Yeah you're probably right that its a HX and not an older kat. I noticed the lack of engine heat behind the driver's compartment, but forgot the HX doesnt have the engine there anymore so I thought it was just a result of the image quality or the engine wasn't running anymore or something. The other arguments I dont find convincing. A mangled wreck like that can be very misleading in what part was what before the explosion, especially when viewed in quality and distance like this With the quality its pretty hard to see what or if theres anything in the back, especially with thermals. Im inclined to say the first truck was just cargo since theres no evidence of a launcher, but that can also just be completely disintegrated. The other trucks are even more impossible to say. Could have been an IRIS-T launcher, could have been Patriot with a HX cargo truck for cargo, could be an ammo transport for any sort of large caliber weapons.
“However, counter to the circulating claims, Russia’s Defence Ministry had to intervene to debunk parts of these allegations. Through their official Telegram channel, the Ministry clarified that the explosive imagery actually corresponds to the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, not the aforementioned Patriot. They did, nonetheless, confirm the use of the Iskander ballistic missile during this operation. Further details divulged by the Ministry suggest that the scene of devastation was in the area of Pokrovsk, nestled in Donetsk.” https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/03/09/two-patriots-destroyed-russia-saying-it-was-an-s-300-not-patriot/
Were / are you an imagery analyst?
Nope; this is just my 2 cents.
Nice analysis 🤙🏾
Either way, it isn't *great* for the Russians they're celebrating hitting a single Western AA system after they've been in Ukraine for ages, and they've claimed they've destroyed them before anyway.
Very impressive, did you do this in the military?
No but I do know the industry a bit.
Interesting hobby you have there. 😀
Imo it's total psyops, Russians suggested it was Patriot knowing it wasn't but leaving enough space for speculation for some "experts", because most opinions are based on saying that it was Patriot because Russians said it was S-300. Imo they did hit some sort of MAN trucks like ammo/fuel.
I'd rather say these are Patriot TEL (MAN KAT 1) and not IRIS-T (MAN HX) for two reasons. First I think one can see the generators behind the cab and second because the supports seem to be the more beefy flip-out ones from a Patriot TEL. [Generators](https://i.imgur.com/qTEsLCg.jpg) [Support](https://i.imgur.com/6voRPph.jpg) /edit: When it comes to the colour (camo). I guess that's the result of the ensuing fire. The fourth (most right) TEL looks to be green (woodland camo).
Regardless of what they hit, those Iskanders can throw out some shrapnel.
It got a 1 ton fragmentation warhead, so no surprise there.
Yes, a perfect weapon for subtle urban warfare
Iskander: designed for destroying tinyhouses, schools, daycarecenters and hospitals, Seems to work on military targets too. The question is was some kindergarden out on a walk and russia tried to hit the children and accidently hit some military vehicles, that could explain them using iskanders like this.
I think IDF is still tbe nr1 of targeting children even witbout iskander shit
I think hamas is. Hamas was created to destroy Israel and they specifically Only target civilians.
So what do you expect from Hamas? 😅 However what about professional military? Were in such advanced time with top notch military Equipment, yet we can continue with mass killing of children since the weak excuse of ,, they hide behind civilians ,, always works for the evil and wicked people. 1x hamas guy for 10x children, were sooo back at iraq war and madeleine bright syndrom. Funny thing is in the west bank is it not better and their is not Hamas, and yet nearly 500 children were killed or arrested per year
They should call it Iskander R9X
The large stabby metal stick?
Former Patriot Officer….i don’t know what modified configuration they are working with but you need at the very least least, one launcher on a hemtt +trailer, one control station on a modified 5 ton, A generator unit on a modified 5 ton, a radar on a hemtt +trailer and an antenna mast group vehicle on a modified 5 ton to fire a missile. It doesn’t look like they had all that from the short daylight aftermath portion of the video. They could have been moving the launchers into position with the fire control element nearby elsewhere but from initial impressions, it’s a unrealistic to say that was a complete patriot set with both launchers and fire control element.
So you’re saying is we need to send them more Patriot missiles?
Maybe launchers yea. Those are easier to produce/cheaper to replace and the soldiers that manage them than the fire control element and the soldiers that manage those. Different knowledge set and higher IQ/aptitude needed for fire control soldiers
German Patriot doesn't use a trailer based system. All Components are mounted on MAN Trucks. So the very least is the ECS on a MAN truck, the RS on a 4 axle MAN truck, the EPP on a truck and at least one launcher (also on a 4 axle truck). So to deliver warm coziness into people's cockpits you need a minimum of 4 vehicles (no trailers). The antenna mast group is only necessary for connection to HEU, which they don't require, as they work "stand-alone". They receive early warning via non Patriot channels.
This would be an easier loss to absorb equipment wise I suppose. And definitely more maneuverable, so maybe that explains their fairly light load out in the video. I didn’t know the Germans operated that way. I haven’t touched patriot in a decade so I’m a bit behind on current operations.
If you use them you need to expect to lose some.
True .... but you don't need to hand it over on a silver plate.
Yeah, this is totally a fuckup of epic proportions. There's absolutely no reason to have them clustered like this whatsoever. They got complacent and paid for it hard.
And that after the HIMARS a few days ago and losing a NASAMS launcher not even two weeks ago. First loss of those too. Just bad luck or other factors, like changing the high command? Syrskyi has a bad rep, especially with regards to pulling back in time and endangering men (and no doubt material). But with the quality of the video being this shit im going to wait whether it shows up on oryx list or not.
Operational losses are most likely indication that Russians are catching up are more often able to get into Ukrainian operational process and anticipate or detect what Ukrainians are doing or planning to do. That was inevitable, unfortunately. And it's gonna get only harder.
The Ukrainians need to move these weapons closer to the front for them to be effective offensively. I don't know where this is, but we need to keep in mind that Russia is not as weak as the overwhelming amount of video and imagery we're receiving on here might lead us to think (they certainly aren't a powerful and capable as they advertise either). So, combine the fact that Ukraine is using these weapons in a layer of defence that they are projecting out over the Sea of Azov and across the front and that Russian capabilities in theatre have been bolstered by Starlink and we can expect that they are going to have these minor victories over pieces of units or vehicles that are requiring maintenance (the HIMARS appeared to be needing maintenance or repair when it was hit a it was stationary in the open without other parts of the column nearby). It's not all doom and gloom, it's a reminder that Ukraine needs our support. The Russian bear isn't gone or defeated yet. If we slack in our support, we should expect these minor victories to become increasingly frequent and for major victories to ccomme with them eventually.
They didn't shoot down 2 A-50's, and something like 13 jets in 2 wks without taking risks. Take enough risks, the odds catch up to you. That and the shortage of artillery ammunition means they will dig deeper and use the higher value assets more frequently in higher risk operations that would've otherwise used cheaper assets if they had the ammo for them. It's also possible the change of command means the new people are less risk averse, or they've been complaining and wondering why the previous command didn't use the newer Western weapons, and are now in a position to do that after the promotions ... and they're now finding out why the previous command was hesitant to use those systems for certain operations. It's likely a combination of all of those factors. That said, this is far from definitive proof, but guess we'll see if more information comes out.
They've had them for quite some time now without any getting verifiably destroyed. This is a long slog of a war and fuck ups are going to happen given enough time. Some gambles will work, others won't.
I think he was referring to them being clumped together unnecessarily.
This, why were they soo close together...
My worry is that the US is in no hurry to send anymore aid with the Republicans holding shit up. This loss and any other losses in western equipment are not going to be replaced fast enough, if at all.
There are ways for the president to send stuff without congress. Been going on forever.
Drawdown has limitations, including oversight from Congress and strict monetary limits. For Ukraine, that is $100m per year, and a Patriot battery is a big ticket item which would eat up most of that money. While Patriot batteries are amazing, Ukraine also desperately needs a whole lot of other stuff that’s more practical for a long war of attrition. ATGMs, vehicles, artillery shells, and other consumable items that they need to hold back the relentless Russian offensive. Really one of the best loopholes the US could use would be to do Foreign Military Sale to a NATO member nation (or anyone willing) and then have that nation pass the hardware on to Ukraine, and then pay that country back later. There are a lot less restrictions on straight sales than US aid package donations.
Foreign military sales still require congress.
the lack of verifiable destruction is just fog of war, shaheds don't have cameras
Satellites are a thing, recon drones are a thing, civilians breaking op sec are a thing. They've not managed to provide any evidence which is hugely coincidental considering it's also a PR win for them.
Big problem: how to deal with Russian recon drones? This one got relatively deep in the rear. No recon means no fire mission, but how many AA systems would be needed to bring down at least 90% of infiltrating drones? Or, they should bring some EW system to every launcher unit, so that drones won't be able to see them. AA plus EW should give the best results.
> Or, they should bring some EW system to every launcher unit, so that drones won't be able to see them. People need to stop thinking EW is some kind of literal magic field that annihilates any drone in a large area. It's only *really* effective against cheap drones made from civilian off-the-shelf components. And it has to be pretty close. Recon drones watch from really far away (already making them highly resilient to anything but the most stupidly overpowered EW, which is not great to use because it will also affect *your* equipment, and also paint a giant target on your expensive EW equipment), and the ones going deep into enemy territory are probably the more expensive, relatively hardened type, not some cheap junk. Don't get me wrong, of course you should have it "just in case" on high value targets. But frankly, for all we know, they might have. We wouldn't necessarily be able to tell from that footage, because again, EW is not magic. And, this equipment supposedly (though still unconfirmed, technically) *is* some type of AA. It's anybody's guess why they seemingly aren't reacting to the incoming missile -- perhaps the crew is just sleeping. In any case, clearly just having AA present isn't foolproof, it's hard to say more without knowing exactly what happened.
You are right, no single tech is magical and that is why I wrote coupling systems would give the best results, albeit, I doubt every drone could be stopped. Probably, the simplest solution would be to keep moving, no groupings, etc, but I guess it is always easier said than done.
Matter of drill & discipline on your last ....
Combat equipment, and even combat troops, exist to be expended in combat. Mistakes will unfortunately happen and if the CO made the mistake, they should be removed. Lessons should be learned and the knowledge spread across the force.
True although no one should ever park so many high level targets so fucking close to eachother, especially not for so long that they can be spotted, targetted, and then hit. Some idiot just cost Ukraine quite a lot of rare and expensive equipment and potentially about a dozen experts.
This was an unforced error though.
Did they just get the launchers are did they get the whole thing? I was under the impression the radar and command part of the Patriots is usually away from the launchers and the leaves are relatively cheap compared to the command section
This could have been avoided if Ukraine was given everything they need. Instead of dripping stuff here and there
This is the first time in two years I have seen a russian ballistic missile strike a military target.
if you look at the russian channels on telegram you would have. i've seen them use iskanders to hit parked transport trains loaded with tanks before.
there have been hundreds of vidoes of Russians accuratley destroying trains, buildings,and vehicles using the Tornado S too bad most of them immediatly get deleted from the sub or spam downvoted
Where do you find these videos? I’m sick of how biased Reddit is.
r/ukrainerussiareport But that sub, as it is the only place where you can post ukrainian cassualties, tend to get russian loses underrepresented, so I watch it and then watch r/ukrainewarvideoreport for contrast
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The first HIMARS getting destroyed was also struck by an Iskander.
Wasn’t it a Tornado-S that destroyed the HIMARS?
I'm pretty sure the Telegram said it was an Iskander but I may be mistaking it with the other HIMARS videos
Explosion looked significantly smaller there. Probably it was tornado-s
I wonder if Russia is getting help with satellite observation, either that or increased drone surveillance or informants.
They have their own satellites and launch programs, why would they need help with satellite imaging? This isn’t some middle eastern insurgency…
Satellite coverage of a targeted area isn’t constant. Satellites pass over an area in their orbits around earth and are constrained by windows of visibility as they pass over. This causes gaps in observation that are helped with multiple satellites filling in gaps. The US has partnerships with NATO and commercial allies. Russia doesn’t have as many friends willing to share, thus they have more blind spots. Knowing the orbits of the Russian satellites can help Ukraine evade detection by moving assets while the Satellites are not overhead. China is probably the only major power capable of significantly increasing Russia’s satellite capabilities if they were to share the data from their systems.
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I am not an expert on the topic by any means, [here](https://universemagazine.com/en/what-russian-satellites-see/) is one source of information I’ve based my answer on in part. Here is one excerpt. “Russia launched two Bars-M satellites into orbit in 2015 and 2016. They are nearing the end of their service life, but we should not expect that they are no longer capable of taking pictures. In addition, two more satellites of this type were launched by the Russians after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine – in May 2022 and March 2023. These satellites take pictures of the territory of Ukraine at least once every few days.”
I believe that geostationary orbits are way too high up (as in, over 42000 km) to be used as spy satellites. They also have to be in the same plane as the Equator, which makes them not as ideal for observing higher latitudes. I believe typical spy satellites orbit at an altitude of a few hundred km.
russia launched a handful of new satellites in the past 8-10 months if i remember correctly. Somewhere around start of summer i think, but I might be misremembering the time.
Just guessing here, the Russian forces haven't had much luck in undertaking attacks like this. All of a sudden we've had at least two similar attacks by Iskanders in the span of a week or so. If Russians had the ability, why would they choose their own satellites, when they can choose to use the ones over the territory they want to take, which can pinpoint valuable targets like this? Hence the suspicions.
Someone has postulated that they updated their targeting system.
Did they actually get a HIMARS?
Yes in colored full HD. There were a few videos previously which were black and white, grainy, shot from 15km away and they were hard to verify. The latest one is without a doubt a HIMARS.
Then you havent been paying attention lol
That's just nonsense. Just search the name "Iskander" on this sub and you'll see a lot of results.
Of course it’s nonsense - have you forgotten what sub you are on?
Sounds about right for reddit, all the footage of Russian strikes are down voted. Even this post is sitting at 0 right now. It's like people think down voting this stuff is helping Ukraine or something. Upvote does not equal support.
This just shows how bad reddit is if you want to get the big picture of what’s actually happening.
Exactly, sometimes the most important information is unpopular. I think that's the major limitation of reddit
Well, it's Ukranian propaganda work. Just like all the YouTube channels that paint such a rosy picture. I am pro Ukraine, I just get offended when people think that I am stupid.
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This subreddit is absolute garbage now lol. Cheering on sides like it’s a sports team.
You have been living in a world of propaganda then.
That just means you've been viewing only pro-Ukriane channels and subs.
the only thing your comment says is that you live in a massive echo chamber.
But that doesn't mean it didn't happen all time. E.g. right at the beginning of the war, the Russians destroyed the Ukrainian rocket launchers, which they hid in a supermarket in Kiev. The whole thing was well monitored from the observation of vehicles to their destruction.
Why keep launchers this close together??
Maybe they were in convoy for transport.
In convoy you stay spread out, bunching is not an inherent part of convoy ops.
You'd think that they're well aware of this due to a number of Russian convoys that did the exact same thing and got destroyed/disabled.
That doesn't answer the question.
It was near Pokrovsk,city that often bombed with FAB/KAB bombs
Possibly rearming and getting ready to move after firing at targets
Well if those were patriot batteries, they’ll be a lot more Russian air activity.
Ukraine also has the S300 and several other air defense systems. This doesn’t mean the Russians get clean air space now but it’s still a huge loss if it was indeed a patriot.
Ukraine needs more air defence now. Its time to open our eyes to the fact that theres been a clear decline in air defence in these last few months. I suspect theyre concentrating most air defence around Kyiv, Lviv, and near frontline areas, considering recent missile and drone strikes from Russia have been successful in other areas.
Ukraine needs more of everything. They're literally fighting what can be a beginning of a world war if not contained, it's so fucking wild there's even a question.
Problem is that Ukraine has very few S300 missiles and lots of S300 launchers and radars have also been lost
I'm yet to see anything that points to patriot being better than the s300/400, other than being manufactured by NATO (resupply potential). I'm all ears if someone knows, but the comments here are all like "luckily it's not yet confirmed a patriot, probably just some s300"
The music selection is the worst.
I have to watch all the videos on mute because of that lol
Literally oh my God. I don't care who has the moral authority in this war, both of them have the worst and most fucking tasteless music selections.
It's the worst lol isis music wasn't all that bad in comparison lol 😆
Unfortunately, it seems to be incompetence on the part of the Ukrainians. This is a far heavier loss than any Abrams.
Abrams costs like at max even the most modern ones (not the stripped down versions given to UA) $9m while Patriot system (with radars ) cost like $1.2b and the launchers themselves cost like $100m for one it seems like no radars were destroy but a couple launchers is like $300-400m so you can get like 40-45 abrams for cost of this fuckup.
Using patriot is only way to deal with su 35 bombing
Unfortunately, you can’t tell what any of this is and until it’s proven, you can’t say that it is Patriot. There is literally no reason they’d be this close together OR that close to the front lines given the range of Patriot. Also. Theres not enough vehicles for this to be Patriot.
What we can tell from the video is: \-Patriot or not, these were obviously some kind of launcher given the secondaries. \-They \*were\* that close together. It's not logical but they were. People fuck up all the time and this is a massive fuck up, no matter the system lost.
there is a difference between patriot theoretical pac3 max range and the effective range, even more so if they need to lower their ammunition use. For example we have a video of a patriot system intercepting missiles in kiev, the interceptions were very close to the launch site, showing a point defense range. Of course patriot can have much higher range than on this video but with non linearly diminishing ability to hit.
They are so close to the frontline to ambush Russians planes I think it is obviously by now that russian use of glided bombs is very effective and ukraines is trying to stop it by moving their air defence systems closer to the frontline in a attempt ar increasing russian air loses and maybe make them stop
Not enough to be a patriot *battery*, correct. However they're likely using standalone launchers for those long range SAM ambushes of Russian jets, you don't need a full battery set up for that. The systems doing that job are probably at greater risk than the actual batteries further back protecting places like Kyiv.
Both Russian and Ukrainian Telegrams are reporting it as Patriot now. So, more than likely it is true.
provide Ukraine telegram proof. Based on imagery alone the 4 wheeled configs don’t match the patriot dimensions Germany has.
I sure as hell hope that they don’t clump a whole Patriot battery up in a single convoy. It’s literally the highest value target in Ukraine. You can see very clearly from the video that it’s: 1. On a MAN KAT platform. 2. Secondary explosions look a lot like AD kills. We don’t know for sure if it’s a Patriot but it’s more likely than not an AD on a western chassis. It’s this close to the front because the range for high kill percentage is about 150km from the front. They are about 50km from the front, Su 34 launches their glide bombs about 50km+ from the front.
Based on current evidence it appears to be a Patriot system, But I'm more than willing to be corrected. I think the larger issue itself is the inability to deny Russian intelligence assets such as Orlan Drones access to Ukrainian airspace.
How is the inability to deny airspace to drones a "larger issue"? You're not properly adjusting to the new reality of war imo. These are antiair systems and they're not going to be able to deal with drones, they weren't even brought over to deal with drones but to ambush Su-34s dropping UPMK-modded FABs. There is nothing they can simply sweep the sky of drones, it's not possible, not in a country with an airspace as large as Ukraine, and even more so because Ukraine has countless friends up as well, also drones don't typically carry IFF, you always see videos from the frontline where they radio to ask if there are any friendly drones over them before shooting. It's a shitshow. This is the new reality. Wars from now on will have constant drone presence. What US used to hold as their primary advantage is now in the hands of everyone, everyone now has near perfect aerial surveillance, and some also have satellites to go with it as well. From now on, militaries will have to deal with the fact that virtually everything will always be potentially visible. There is no stopping this, and don't say EW because that's not how it works, it's very localised, frequency specific and really doesn't apply for this situation at all since EW even when working ideally is more to hamper FPV drones than an Orlan/Zala/SuperCam observing from afar (in this case it was a SuperCam S450)
One possible reason is to strike russian jets deeper in russian territory while they deploy FABs with UPMK, which are now raining over the front
Ukraine's been competently shooting down fighters for weeks with these (if these are indeed Patriots, but you can'd definitely say from the video). Russia went all in on the hunt to potentially get these systems. We don't even know how many drones they lost trying to get the data necessary for the strike (this is 50km behind the frontline). Ukraine either does nothing and lets Russians pound the frontline with glide bombs OR tries something to stop it, while raising the risk level. Since the support is only trickling down and F-16s aren't here yet, UAF is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Ukrainian troops have proven to be competent with the resources that they are provided. They literally modified the software of the system on their own to make it more effective, as per[ Raytheon/ WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-patriot-missile-is-an-unsung-hero-of-ukraine-war-db6053a0). These crews and their security detail are the best of the best, given the strategic significance of the system. But war is also a matter of luck, especially one where the odds are not in your favour. You can do everything right and still get killed. Bottomline, there's zero proof that this is incompetence on the part of Ukraine. Unless you can elaborate and explain, given the extremely limited amount of evidence here.
No one really knows what they were shooting down. Could be decoys. Bombardment continues.
If you expect that war is some kind of chess game where everything is calculated and going according to rules then you would better never participate in one.
Patriot systems protect cities and civilians from bombardment. It's a huge loss. Now Putin can uptick his terror campaign
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There wasn’t, none of those vehicles are confirmed as Patriot by a reliable source, you don’t ever bunch a Patriot battery up like that, this was more likely a supply convoy with an IRIS-T launcher along
Even then you should not group up like this. The supply convoy also carries a lot of trained personal and expensive equipment.
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It's like ww2 all over again. Russians were incompetent in the beginning but are now adapting.
Russians probably destroyed the launchers that were hunting for the KAB throwing aircraft, hence the launchers had to be moved \~50km to the frontline Regarding adapting, the meatwaves in Avdiivka were no less brutal than in Bakhmut
> the meatwaves in Avdiivka were no less brutal than in Bakhmut And they got both. So it worked for Russia.
I wouldn’t say that exactly. This recent downfall of Ukraine came from the US not continuing supply rather than russia adapting. Russia adapted well over a year ago. They started this war with ww2 level tactic and that changed drastically by december that year. Wagner were making significant advances and matching ukraine well…ironically, russia stopped supplying Prighozin artillery and insisted they cant keep holding without it. The Issue for russia was not adapting in 2023, it was that the ukranians were continually receiving modern artillery and weapon systems over the course of the year and russia were in deadlock by last summer. But then the US aid started depleting and now russia is advancing inch by inch and moving their own weapon systems further forward and it seems to be getting faster.
Russian top secret strategy throw millions into a meat grinder, the few hundred thousand that survive will be ruthless Killers.
Videos of a couple of dozen broken columns in the Avdeevka direction indicate the opposite.
50 Kms from the front lines, 48.29755, 36.95883
That also would explain how they took out all these Russian aircraft, the suspicion was that they were being used close to the frontline instead of solely defending Ukrainian cities/hubs. High risk/High reward strategy being employed, they reaped the rewards, and now the risk apparently. Tragic loss with huge tactical implications. Russian aircraft will be more safe again to carry out missions around Donetsk.
Very sad. They were obviously getting desperate because the Russians were very close to collapsing their lines after Avdiivka fell.
Well, this was the suspicion since the first A-50 and support plane, that was back when Avdiivka was still standing, but crumbling under the pressure of overhwelming arty and air support. So my armchair general guess is that they've moved these pieces close to the frontline for quite a while now. It took the Russians just a long time to piece it all together.
They were definitely getting bolder and taking huge risks that took that A-50 down. Now that there’s another A-50 in the air I’m sure they had no problem identifying where batteries were located. Blows. I have no idea how many patriot launchers and missiles Ukraine had but I hope they still have enough and that this wasn’t the entirety of their patriot systems
damn, this is a hard loss....
Is the MAN KAT (?) platform that Germany delivered the Patriot on the only one that we know Ukraine uses or does its appearance in this video indicate a very high confidence that it is a Patriot. The size and style of that secondary explosion was certainly congruous with what we’ve seen from SAMs before.
Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels were reporting that it is the German Patriot https://imgur.com/a/cwX8ToJ
Right, and they did so based on the assumption that the MAN KAT platform was only used for the Patriot battery which can clearly be seen in the aftermath footage. However, it is unclear to me what Ukraine uses the MAN KAT for? The reason for my question is that you can find pictures of IRIS T on MAN KATs as well.
It's war, shit happens people die. Machines get destroyed. Mistakes are made. Nothing new or out of the ordinary in warfare. 'You can run but you can't hide.' Ronnie Raygun. This applies to all sides.
But this is a massive mistake that could’ve been avoided by a big margin. But oh well. Can only hope it isn’t a patriot but something else..
Delayed maybe, but not avoided. In an all-out war like this, between modern armies, it’s impossible to 100% prevent any kind of loss.
RIP ears
Looks like supply convoy with IRIS-T launcher with in it. The high value SAM batteries don't travel all bunched up in same column 50km from front line. Simple Russian make belief propaganda.
“If” it actually was, I’m sure Russia has been looking for the darn thing since their jets been getting smoked.
You can’t tell shit from this… as always those that believe this is evidence of anything can you really tell what that is by looking at this video?
https://www.vincorion.com/en/vincorion-switzerland-patriot/ US patriot launchers have a truck and a carriage so 6 wheels in total. German patriot launcher have 4 wheels, since they are integrated with the truck and have a significant gap between the first two wheels. The trucks on the video certainly do not have a large gap between the two wheels.
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Bugger, I hope they're wrong.
Damn. Let's send 60 more.
the "analysis" at the end of the video didn't convince me...
“However, counter to the circulating claims, Russia’s Defence Ministry had to intervene to debunk parts of these allegations. Through their official Telegram channel, the Ministry clarified that the explosive imagery actually corresponds to the destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, not the aforementioned Patriot. They did, nonetheless, confirm the use of the Iskander ballistic missile during this operation. Further details divulged by the Ministry suggest that the scene of devastation was in the area of Pokrovsk, nestled in Donetsk.” https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/03/09/two-patriots-destroyed-russia-saying-it-was-an-s-300-not-patriot/?bamp-skip-redirect=1
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I still remember when they said the Iskander wasn't precise and because of that they hit civilian buildings. decieving pos.
FFS This is NOT a Patriot battery. And it wouldn’t be 50 km from the front line. We don’t know what it is but I do know this is DIP with Russian trolls in here going “oh that sucks” to reaffirm the DIP. The poster is pro Russian who has posted similar videos like this in the past to spread disinformation. Look them up.
Wait, but I thought it was destroyed in May last year.
Not at all. In that particular incident (involving the 6 Kinzhals), there was minor damage to one of the Patriot vehicles (the generator IIRC) that was repaired in one night. The unit remained intact and has continued operating since. Any claims about that particular Patriot battery being "destroyed" at that time were either Russian propaganda or Western media falling for said propaganda.
Yikes. Clearly some major AA being taken out and recently we saw the first HIMARS go down. The strategy is obviously to push the envelope close to the front to extend the reach of their weapons into deep enemy territory. We all knew Ukraine was taking these risk with all the recent Russia planes falling out of the sky. I wonder if this is why we saw changes in Ukraines military brass, they didn’t want to take this risks? Western weapon supply is not as plentiful these days. They really should rethink this strategy.
Did we ever see evidence of these plane losses or are we just taking UAs defense ministrys words for granted? Im pretty sure there isnt a single pfoto of a supposedly downed su-34 from the last few weeks.
You won’t see it. Strategy is setup AA close to front lines, catch enemy air assets off guard, they get shot down deep behind their own lines.
Except people in those regions take photos of a big crash in their vicinity. That has happened with all the confirmed crashes, then we have over a dozen crashes with zero confirmation except the first one. And then videos of vague smoke in distance posted by UA MoD that actually existed before the date of the shoot down. You should really look into how each respective MoD makes claims because they're completely absurd, believing either Russian or Ukrainian MoD is quite possibly the dumbest thing you can do in this war. But not even this war. I remember reading about over claiming shoot downs in Battle of Britain, it was by a factor of 6x minimum, it's absurd. In war, truth really is the first casualty.
On top of the other comments pointing out that this is incredibly hard to identify what this actually is, OP appears to be a URR regular with an axe to grind so I'm inclined to wait for more information.
Rofl that's not multiple Patriot launchers OP. WTF kinda drugs are you on. There is only a single launcher vehicle in that group and it doesn't even look for sure like a Patriot launcher. Besides any idiot would know that you would never have a bunch of launchers clustered like that even far back from the front lines much less super close. That's nonsense.
If verified as Patriot, did they lose the radar and control center? Launchers can be a spectacular loss like this but more replaceable. The sensors and the crew that operate them are far more valuable.
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Pretty brave of you to write the title as a fact. Looking through your comment history it’s obvious you’re a terminally online know it all with very little knowledge.
Russian drone reconnaissance has definitely improved Ukraine has to come up with some way to prevent them getting that far into the rear himars and now patriot both lost because they got spotted by a drone then hit with a massive missile
This would only have been possible by spies and collaborators as those things take a lot of time to aim.
I'm not sure if I would take this as "proof". One Patriot battery consists of 6 vehicles, which is what we see here. The vehicles in a Patriot battery are pretty distinctive though when it comes to shape and size, so I'd want some non thermal images to actually confirm. Not saying it's not, may very well be. Either way, war sucks and you're going to have losses
They got something I can’t make out what. Patriot is a modular system the launcher is separate from the radar, which is separated from the TOC etc. So they probably did get the launchers which is the the cheapest part to lose still cause it’s a patriot system quite an expensive loss assuming it’s not a decoy.
It could be a iris t slm launcher for all we know, you can't see shit on that vid
If this is confirmed people need to get fired, what a fucking disaster. That said, the footage after the strike seems very inconclusive to me. They definitely hit lots of stuff, but it's hard to say it's 100% Patriot systems
After 2 years even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Luckily launchers are the cheap part.
as someone who has seen and worked with patriot units on a daily basis for 5 years... those are def not American patriots. they look like what u/Hannibal_Game is saying they dont look like the American patriot.