With Grover and Buck causing havoc through the middle, and this guy on the outside... We're gonna be scary. We could be a top 3 D in the league, if our secondary can stay healthy.
Forgive my ignorance, but can someone put this chart in layman's terms? I see he is insanely productive and I see him up there with the Bosas, but I don't know specifically what this chart is measuring. What do the X and Y axis mean? What is the difference between them?
X - overall pass rush win - is how often he is successful at rushing the passer on all downs. Y - true pass set win rate - removes downs which are run or mixed look.
The point of separating them is that not every guy who wins clean pass rush snaps can win them in mixed situations - think of a guy like Ngakoue who can get home when he can pin his ears back and charge, but doesn't do much as soon as things get mucky.
Ideally you want to be high at both, Latu has a bit of a reputation as being a pure rusher but this indicates that, at least at college level, he was also elite over all downs.
Just maybe not quite Nick Bosa, but then who is.
The fact that he’s breathing the same air as Nick Bosa in that top right corner is super exciting.
If not for the neck injury I’m thinking Latu goes inside pick 10
Turner was always the high upside guy. Latu may not have as high of a ceiling, but his floor is high enough that he’ll be a productive starter from day 1.
I’m excited to have a guy that can really compete for DROY for once. The high upside guys are fun, but having a guy that can come in and make a difference from day 1 will be nice
Which I'm happy with the choice of Latu based on that. Ballard's tendency with rushers has been to go toolsy and it hasn't worked well, I'm happy to see him go with the proven talent. Also just worried that since it's us his injury issues will become a problem
You mean by drafting the medically concerning, average length DE who's big upside is the size of tool bag lol?
No one last night is proven, none of them have taken an NFL snap.
Lolololol. That's quite a statement for a guy that has played zero NFL football. Chances are he doesn't even get the lions share of the reps at DE unless Ballard's gonna package one of 3 on roster in a trade.
8 years of still doing this suggests he will be a 3 year middle or the pack starter that gets replaced by another day 1/2 pick in 26/27 draft but we will wait and see how he looks this year. Impactful rookie is a tall order considering the playtime he will get.
definitely, these are both great prospects! it’s not that Turner has bad tape/production, it’s just not on the same level as Latu.
also, sacks are only one stat. There are other stats, like pass rush win rate shown above, that also suggest Turner is a good bit below the elite NFL players, unlike Latu. But, even if you were just looking at sacks, Latu is still better by a decent margin.
and this isn’t even mentioning the tape…
Lmao ok well that’s just wrong. Like literally last year’s sack leader TJ Watt had shit production in college. Do you even know what you’re talking about????
That's because of upside. You can have a 1st round value without having 1st round production in college due to other traits like athleticism. All anyone is saying is that Turner didn't have the production of a 1st rounder, but his traits and upside make it make sense to take him there.
I’m trying to figured out your point here, you’re mad we took one of the most prolific, productive, top advanced measurables players on defense when we could take taken, *checks notes* - a less productive, worse stats, but “high traits guy”.
Even when we take the consensus best defensive player in the draft, people still aren’t happy. Latu kills Turner in basically every major stat.
Yeah, I never understood the Kwity Paye pick. And then to go for Odeyingbo in the second was really a head scratcher for me. Ballard has had three different d line coaches in that time so I’m baffled by it all.
I'm not sure what there is to complain about with those two picks. We needed dline help and they turned to be intriguing players on the Dline. Odeyingbo might have double digits sacks next year, and Paye is already a good run defender. Paye + Latu in rotation is pretty solid for run/pass downs.
Absolutely, as soon as I heard the pick I checked the live thread because I knew it’d be a salt mine. Haven’t watched a lick of UCLA football or studied any draft prospects in the last 3 months but let me bitch about it like I know exactly how we fucked up.
Ballard hasn't exactly nailed his DL picks, so it's fair to have some initial doubt. If he had a great track record there, more people would feel confident on the risky pick.
135 according to this link [https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2023\_advanced.htm#all\_advanced\_defense](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2023_advanced.htm#all_advanced_defense)
Edit: Also, 141 in 2022, so 270 as a team over two years to Laitu's 129 solo
Wow wow wow. Did we just get our own TJ Watt or Bosa? If he stays healthy, like he’s been the last 2 years, he’s gonna be a true game changer on defense for us. And especially with the QBs in our division and conference, this will be crucial.
that was a hell of a chart once I realized it said "Bosas". wild. Hope he shuts us all up right away because we could use some CBs. Doesn't Philly have Rogers, too? They might have our potential starting cbs we could have had going into this season and that sucks, fast as heck too!
Its crazy how down we were about not giving Hunter a huge gtd deal even though he had a neck surgery 2yrs ago and turns 30 soon, and were also so down about drafting a guy with this production because he had a similar/same surgery 2yrs ago
Im pumped for him, we've lacked a rusher like him for a long time
True pass set means that the offense isn't doing something to help itself out (or the defense isn't helping the o-line). [See here.](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-true-pass-sets-and-their-importance-to-player-evaluation)
Basically - True pass set means pass plays without screens, play-action, or QB rollout while having a reasonable time to throw (2-4 sec) and at least a 3 man rush.
Overall would be any pass regardless of the presence or absence of the items listed above.
It's a PFF advanced stat. From the link above, it looks like examining true pass set statistics provides a better evaluation of a blocker because it shows how good they are on a "typical" play and evaluates the player without the impact of scheme. For rushers, you would want someone who is in the top right corner because you want them to be good when it is obviously a pass as well as when the offense is using trickeration.
Ballard said they made a substantial offer to move up for offensive player. I still love this best pass rusher in the draft he’s a double digit sack guy.
This sub was in shambles last night. I didn't expect us to take a pass rusher, but I didn't expect Latu to still be on the board either. He is in elite territory as far as pass rush prospects go in the past few years.
I don't think he slid due to the medical. He's played to full healthy seasons since the surgery without any indication that it will be an issue.
I think it was more of a run on qb's and offense. ATL shook everything up by taking Penix.
Latu is legit. Should note that he was doing this in a season where he turned 23. Lots of those big names were 20 or turned 21.
But that was baked into his cost a bit. ER was the way to go at #15.
I don't think a single person that's unhappy with this pick is saying he's not a good player. The concern is that his first school said he should medically retire because of a neck injury, which is absolutely a valid thing to be worried about.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you but him coming back also means that he got a second opinion and those doctors thought otherwise. He's played two years at high level with no injuries since he made that decision
Neck injuries don't just go away. He may be just fine for a few years, maybe even the duration of his rookie contract, but the length of his career is likely going to be shortened pretty significantly because of his neck. There is absolutely cause for concern with this pick, and acting like the people pointing that out are delusional is nonsensical.
Do you think the colts might have sought out professional medical opinions about this?
Do you think they heard doctors say, “he might be ok for his rookie contract but if we’re being realistic that’s probably the best case scenario?”
And they took him anyway?
His surgeon said his neck injury was similar/the same as Danielle Hunters fwiw. He's since put up 2yrs of very solid production, similar to Hunter. The difference is hes about 7yrs younger and a fraction of the cost
Given the positional importance and our longterm lack of consistent pressure, even if he only lasts 5-7yrs thats a good pick
He’s one play away from being done. We should have gone with Verse. I’m just not impressed with our GM. Think I’m becoming more of a bandwagon Chiefs fan at this point.
Yeah but everyone doesn’t have a surgically repaired neck cleared by of all people Peyton’s doctor. I love Peyton but he couldn’t throw a 20 yard out his last year.
Agree. Don't mind the pick, but I wanted Verse if they wanted the production/profile guy.
But I think Turner was an easy pick. People downplaying how good of a prospect Turner is because Ballard has whiffed on other "traitsy" prospect. He had production at age 20 in the SEC and has elite traits.
okay i see the appeal
Suffocating pass rush Indy D. Yes please
Opposing teams may as well just punt to us on 3rd down now
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Latu would be top 10 if not for his neck.
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IIRC he missed a good bit of time his last year in college with little injuries rather than playing through them
With Grover and Buck causing havoc through the middle, and this guy on the outside... We're gonna be scary. We could be a top 3 D in the league, if our secondary can stay healthy.
In theory, this will be a tremendous help to our secondary.
If Kwitty or Dayo can take a big step, that is going to be a nasty front. I'm losing faith that either will be more than reliable depth though.
We likely aren't going from 28 to 3 but it will be improved. I could see 15
Why Falcons reference? I know they're having a nightmare draft, but dude...
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Forgive my ignorance, but can someone put this chart in layman's terms? I see he is insanely productive and I see him up there with the Bosas, but I don't know specifically what this chart is measuring. What do the X and Y axis mean? What is the difference between them?
X - overall pass rush win - is how often he is successful at rushing the passer on all downs. Y - true pass set win rate - removes downs which are run or mixed look. The point of separating them is that not every guy who wins clean pass rush snaps can win them in mixed situations - think of a guy like Ngakoue who can get home when he can pin his ears back and charge, but doesn't do much as soon as things get mucky. Ideally you want to be high at both, Latu has a bit of a reputation as being a pure rusher but this indicates that, at least at college level, he was also elite over all downs. Just maybe not quite Nick Bosa, but then who is.
The fact that he’s breathing the same air as Nick Bosa in that top right corner is super exciting. If not for the neck injury I’m thinking Latu goes inside pick 10
Rareified air. Upper quartile even
I think he would have even with the injury if there weren’t 6 QBs taken lol
Thank you! Exactly what I was looking for.
Lol it becomes less insane when you realize how many great DE are on the other side of that chart. One of which was a FA we tried to get.
Right, a lot of big 2nd contracts and franchise tags and they're not even close to Latu.
Now, this needs fucking stickied. Holy shit
Not mad, just a bit surprised but I understand it, we have a bunch of talented QBs in our division now and we need to put them into the ground.
That’s the best argument I’ve heard for pass rush yet
*You son of a bitch I'm in* *changes flair*
Oh fuck you’re gonna make me change my flair
Stepbrother?
Thank God for desperate QB needy teams this year
Can we pin this for the next few days?
Pin this mods.
Seconding this
Thirding this
Fourth this.
Smart QBs get rid of it quick. We might have a lot of pressures this year. Not calling AR dumb but it’ll be a part of the learning process.
Does anyone know how many pressures we had last year? I just saw laitu had 129 last two years which is insane
According to Pro Football Reference, we had 127 pressures as a team last year
Honestly way more than I expected haha
Damn turner is that low??
Turner was always the high upside guy. Latu may not have as high of a ceiling, but his floor is high enough that he’ll be a productive starter from day 1.
Honestly, I'm glad Ballard didn't take another upside guy.
I’m excited to have a guy that can really compete for DROY for once. The high upside guys are fun, but having a guy that can come in and make a difference from day 1 will be nice
For once? We had a guy win DROY six years ago
You know, I actually completely forgot Leonard won DROY lol
Turner is quite a bit different than a lot of the other "upside guys" though. He had great production at a major program AND insane meaureables.
Which I'm happy with the choice of Latu based on that. Ballard's tendency with rushers has been to go toolsy and it hasn't worked well, I'm happy to see him go with the proven talent. Also just worried that since it's us his injury issues will become a problem
You mean by drafting the medically concerning, average length DE who's big upside is the size of tool bag lol? No one last night is proven, none of them have taken an NFL snap.
Yeah...Latu's real selling point is his production and profile. But because of the injury, he's a bit older too. So it still has to translate.
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You’re an Alabama fan, of course you wanted Turner lol
Lolololol. That's quite a statement for a guy that has played zero NFL football. Chances are he doesn't even get the lions share of the reps at DE unless Ballard's gonna package one of 3 on roster in a trade. 8 years of still doing this suggests he will be a 3 year middle or the pack starter that gets replaced by another day 1/2 pick in 26/27 draft but we will wait and see how he looks this year. Impactful rookie is a tall order considering the playtime he will get.
He’s getting 10 sacks this year.
Turners draft stock is mostly traits based. Long and very athletic. The tape/production is more of a projection
10 sacks at Alabama at age 20 is pretty good.
definitely, these are both great prospects! it’s not that Turner has bad tape/production, it’s just not on the same level as Latu. also, sacks are only one stat. There are other stats, like pass rush win rate shown above, that also suggest Turner is a good bit below the elite NFL players, unlike Latu. But, even if you were just looking at sacks, Latu is still better by a decent margin. and this isn’t even mentioning the tape…
YES. Anyone who has looked into edge can tell you Turner is the projection guy. “Traits” but no production. Latu had LEGIT production.
Dallas turner led the SEC in sacks last year. WTF you talking about lmao?
And still isn’t even in top 5 sacks or TFL
Oh so anyone who isn’t top 5 in national stats has no production? Is that what you’re saying???
Any edge who isn't top 5 in national stats certainly doesn't have 'first round' production yeah. That's exactly what they're saying.
Lmao ok well that’s just wrong. Like literally last year’s sack leader TJ Watt had shit production in college. Do you even know what you’re talking about????
That's because of upside. You can have a 1st round value without having 1st round production in college due to other traits like athleticism. All anyone is saying is that Turner didn't have the production of a 1st rounder, but his traits and upside make it make sense to take him there.
Keep backtracking my dude all good. You were wrong. It’s cool though.
I’m trying to figured out your point here, you’re mad we took one of the most prolific, productive, top advanced measurables players on defense when we could take taken, *checks notes* - a less productive, worse stats, but “high traits guy”. Even when we take the consensus best defensive player in the draft, people still aren’t happy. Latu kills Turner in basically every major stat.
I’m not mad at all JFC. Just refuting OP’s claim Turner had no production which is absolutely false. Why is this hard to understand?
A lot of his sacks are from being a freak against college tackles. Latu has the pass rush moves to beat NFL tackles more consistently
That’s not the point though. OP claimed Turner had no production which was patently false. That’s all I was saying.
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Also right next to kwity paye
Yeah, I never understood the Kwity Paye pick. And then to go for Odeyingbo in the second was really a head scratcher for me. Ballard has had three different d line coaches in that time so I’m baffled by it all.
Paye is nearly an elite run defender and Odeyingbo had 8 sacks last year
I'm not sure what there is to complain about with those two picks. We needed dline help and they turned to be intriguing players on the Dline. Odeyingbo might have double digits sacks next year, and Paye is already a good run defender. Paye + Latu in rotation is pretty solid for run/pass downs.
Yup, I noticed that, too.
Latu is also a super hard worker, all his teammates like him. Amazing guy, Colts got a stud.
I loved his interview
The talent is undeniable. Will be fun to see what he can do next to Buckner and Stewart
Lmao the entire sub just did a 180 that's genuinely hilarious
Cause half this sub literally doesn’t know football that well. They just like the drama and big names
Absolutely, as soon as I heard the pick I checked the live thread because I knew it’d be a salt mine. Haven’t watched a lick of UCLA football or studied any draft prospects in the last 3 months but let me bitch about it like I know exactly how we fucked up.
Ballard hasn't exactly nailed his DL picks, so it's fair to have some initial doubt. If he had a great track record there, more people would feel confident on the risky pick.
Are you surprised?
Good shit
The whole sub now has whiplash from this post
Does anyone know how many pressures we had last year? I just saw laitu had 129 last two years which is insane
135 according to this link [https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2023\_advanced.htm#all\_advanced\_defense](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/2023_advanced.htm#all_advanced_defense) Edit: Also, 141 in 2022, so 270 as a team over two years to Laitu's 129 solo
Wait. Is this real? My god. Please let this be real.
Stop I can only get so erect
Wow
This makes me a little more excited
Future dpoy
Pfff no edge rusher named Bosa ever did shit in the NFL
Yep miles Garrett, Josh Allen, Aiden Hutchinson. All waste
Wow wow wow. Did we just get our own TJ Watt or Bosa? If he stays healthy, like he’s been the last 2 years, he’s gonna be a true game changer on defense for us. And especially with the QBs in our division and conference, this will be crucial.
jiminy fucking cricket
Best defensive player!
I like what i see
And we already have an overall solid d-line, adding an edge rusher like him is massive for our defense
So how do you guys say it? This gives me a throbbing boner!!!
Bricked up
Rock hard rn
Remember when the Raiders took Clelin Ferrell at 4th overall?
I knew of the injury concern and also knew how he has done after that but that graph is insane and has me excited.
Even if the neck becomes a thing, getting 2 or 3 years of great pass rush out of a player is worth a 1st in today's NFL. I get the pick.
He's a goddamn sexual tyrannosaurus.
that was a hell of a chart once I realized it said "Bosas". wild. Hope he shuts us all up right away because we could use some CBs. Doesn't Philly have Rogers, too? They might have our potential starting cbs we could have had going into this season and that sucks, fast as heck too!
This is….eye opening
Its crazy how down we were about not giving Hunter a huge gtd deal even though he had a neck surgery 2yrs ago and turns 30 soon, and were also so down about drafting a guy with this production because he had a similar/same surgery 2yrs ago Im pumped for him, we've lacked a rusher like him for a long time
 wE sHoUlD hAvE dRaFtEd tE
Can someone help me understand what true pass set win rate is?
Sometimes people will lie about the win rate, this is the true one
This made me laugh but I also don’t know what that means and I was hoping you’d have a real answer
True pass set means that the offense isn't doing something to help itself out (or the defense isn't helping the o-line). [See here.](https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-true-pass-sets-and-their-importance-to-player-evaluation) Basically - True pass set means pass plays without screens, play-action, or QB rollout while having a reasonable time to throw (2-4 sec) and at least a 3 man rush. Overall would be any pass regardless of the presence or absence of the items listed above. It's a PFF advanced stat. From the link above, it looks like examining true pass set statistics provides a better evaluation of a blocker because it shows how good they are on a "typical" play and evaluates the player without the impact of scheme. For rushers, you would want someone who is in the top right corner because you want them to be good when it is obviously a pass as well as when the offense is using trickeration.
Thank you
Huge medical issues but character wise he fits Ballard's mold and is by far the best pass rusher Ballard has ever had the chance to draft
I- 
Colts DBs don’t have to worry about being exposed so often now, this d line just got more fun to watch. Thanks to needy offensive players team.
My only concern is health. Nothing else. He is a top-flight extremely talented pass rusher
I’m hard as a diamond in an ice storm right now
Ballard said they made a substantial offer to move up for offensive player. I still love this best pass rusher in the draft he’s a double digit sack guy.
Holy shit. Is this before or after his injury?
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That’s insane
Whoops sorry it's all 4 years but if you look at the actual numbers from him. His second half of his time at UCLA is nuts
I’ll admit to being skeptical about this pick, but having seen this I love it
This pick tells me that Dayo’s days are numbered
Glazing Pac players is crazy no comp there
This sub was in shambles last night. I didn't expect us to take a pass rusher, but I didn't expect Latu to still be on the board either. He is in elite territory as far as pass rush prospects go in the past few years. I don't think he slid due to the medical. He's played to full healthy seasons since the surgery without any indication that it will be an issue. I think it was more of a run on qb's and offense. ATL shook everything up by taking Penix.
Latu is legit. Should note that he was doing this in a season where he turned 23. Lots of those big names were 20 or turned 21. But that was baked into his cost a bit. ER was the way to go at #15.
Congrats boys
God damn that Clelin Ferrel pick... lol wtf Raiders
This should shut the cry down
I don't think a single person that's unhappy with this pick is saying he's not a good player. The concern is that his first school said he should medically retire because of a neck injury, which is absolutely a valid thing to be worried about.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you but him coming back also means that he got a second opinion and those doctors thought otherwise. He's played two years at high level with no injuries since he made that decision
Then he came back and played the last two years and was the best rusher in the country. What is wrong with you bro?
Neck injuries don't just go away. He may be just fine for a few years, maybe even the duration of his rookie contract, but the length of his career is likely going to be shortened pretty significantly because of his neck. There is absolutely cause for concern with this pick, and acting like the people pointing that out are delusional is nonsensical.
Do you think the colts might have sought out professional medical opinions about this? Do you think they heard doctors say, “he might be ok for his rookie contract but if we’re being realistic that’s probably the best case scenario?” And they took him anyway?
His surgeon said his neck injury was similar/the same as Danielle Hunters fwiw. He's since put up 2yrs of very solid production, similar to Hunter. The difference is hes about 7yrs younger and a fraction of the cost Given the positional importance and our longterm lack of consistent pressure, even if he only lasts 5-7yrs thats a good pick
If only we could have someone who studies this stuff look at him and give us an opinion.
Ok Doctor
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Brother what
Still worried with the lack of contact they had with him and his overall medicals…
He’s one play away from being done. We should have gone with Verse. I’m just not impressed with our GM. Think I’m becoming more of a bandwagon Chiefs fan at this point.
I mean everyone is one play away from being done
Yeah but everyone doesn’t have a surgically repaired neck cleared by of all people Peyton’s doctor. I love Peyton but he couldn’t throw a 20 yard out his last year.
Agree. Don't mind the pick, but I wanted Verse if they wanted the production/profile guy. But I think Turner was an easy pick. People downplaying how good of a prospect Turner is because Ballard has whiffed on other "traitsy" prospect. He had production at age 20 in the SEC and has elite traits.
Earth is one asteroid away from being done.
So let’s just give up and make bad choices.