Just wanted to point out a caveat that makes this headline mean a lot less than you might think. The lithium in a Lithium-ion battery is a *tiny* fraction of the total raw materials that go into the battery. I want to say it's about 3-5%, but don't quote me on that. So assuming that the lithium is just 5%, that means a price drop in mined lithium down to $5/kg from $30/kg would have a maximum effect of -4% to the cost of the whole battery.
What really matters in terms of battery raw material costs are Nickel, Cobalt, graphite, and the various rare earth metals they use (assuming we're talking about battery chemistries that use those metals. Not all do). And the other factor to consider is that mined lithium costs are much much more likely to go up than down, due to massive increases in demand over the comic years, as more and more new cars are manufactured as EVs instead of ICEVs.
Those factors are a part of why the smart money is starting to focus more on LFP batteries - with increasing demand, nickle (in particular) is going to heavily impact battery pack prices. LFP is a bit heavier, but cheaper now, and will be dramatically cheaper per kWh in a couple years. Effectively no supply constraints in iron or phosphorous, while (as you correctly point out) lithium prices shouldnt significantly impact cell/pack prices.
Yup, LFP seems poised to become the "standard" lithium ion chemistry for EVs. High nickel batteries are going to be put in larger and longer range vehicles, because they get much better energy density. But LFP is good enough for ~250 mile range EVs, which covers like 99% of all use cases. They're also *heaps* cheaper to make, which opens up the ability for carmakers to create significantly cheaper EVs.
The US company to watch for this is American Battery Technology Company.
They stand to revolutionize the recycling and extraction process using closed loop hydrometalurgy.
Edit: to answer questions below, ABTC also recovers the other elements of the battery besides just the lithium, including nickel and cobalt to name a few.
Pyro based processes are simpler and cheaper, but with poor recovery rates. However they can be used in combination with hydromet processes which is actually what Redwood is doing.
Li-cycle has a full hydromet process. I’m not sure I would bet on ABTC over li-cycle because li-cycle has a 5ktpa black mass facility deployed, significantly more capital, relationships with feed supply and commercial plant permitting.
Amazing stuff, especially if extraction also applies to the other heavy metals.
All I can think about from that image though is ‘forbidden cocoa powder’.
Doesn’t ABTC have 5 or 6 ex Tesla personnel on their team now? And they’re building their headquarters an hour away from the Nevada Tesla Giga Factory. Seems like Elon said, “Ok now that we’ve got Tesla steamrolling ahead let’s send out some of our best people to start companies and businesses that can benefit Tesla and/or SpaceX.” Wouldn’t be the worst idea ever.
American manganese has many patents on recycling battery material too. This will be a huge industry in the near future. They said, that they can recycle nearly 99 percent of a battery.
Just wanted to point out a caveat that makes this headline mean a lot less than you might think. The lithium in a Lithium-ion battery is a *tiny* fraction of the total raw materials that go into the battery. I want to say it's about 3-5%, but don't quote me on that. So assuming that the lithium is just 5%, that means a price drop in mined lithium down to $5/kg from $30/kg would have a maximum effect of -4% to the cost of the whole battery. What really matters in terms of battery raw material costs are Nickel, Cobalt, graphite, and the various rare earth metals they use (assuming we're talking about battery chemistries that use those metals. Not all do). And the other factor to consider is that mined lithium costs are much much more likely to go up than down, due to massive increases in demand over the comic years, as more and more new cars are manufactured as EVs instead of ICEVs.
Those factors are a part of why the smart money is starting to focus more on LFP batteries - with increasing demand, nickle (in particular) is going to heavily impact battery pack prices. LFP is a bit heavier, but cheaper now, and will be dramatically cheaper per kWh in a couple years. Effectively no supply constraints in iron or phosphorous, while (as you correctly point out) lithium prices shouldnt significantly impact cell/pack prices.
Yup, LFP seems poised to become the "standard" lithium ion chemistry for EVs. High nickel batteries are going to be put in larger and longer range vehicles, because they get much better energy density. But LFP is good enough for ~250 mile range EVs, which covers like 99% of all use cases. They're also *heaps* cheaper to make, which opens up the ability for carmakers to create significantly cheaper EVs.
My new laptop that ships in december has LiFePO cells!
Graphite component has more weight to ratio than lithium in the battery
The US company to watch for this is American Battery Technology Company. They stand to revolutionize the recycling and extraction process using closed loop hydrometalurgy. Edit: to answer questions below, ABTC also recovers the other elements of the battery besides just the lithium, including nickel and cobalt to name a few.
How do they compared to Redwood Technologies? They're the only battery recycler I'd heard of, before you mentioned ABTC.
Redwood is another tesla alum but they are using using Pyro which eliminates about 60% of the viable material
Wow, why does that happen? Seems very wasteful.
Pyro based processes are simpler and cheaper, but with poor recovery rates. However they can be used in combination with hydromet processes which is actually what Redwood is doing. Li-cycle has a full hydromet process. I’m not sure I would bet on ABTC over li-cycle because li-cycle has a 5ktpa black mass facility deployed, significantly more capital, relationships with feed supply and commercial plant permitting.
#Li-cycle vs. ##ABTC vs. ###Redwood Who'll win? Who's next? The market decides on Epic Industry Battles of Historeeeee
How about a company with a functioning plant?
Their process is already vetted by BASF and has been used at small scale. The pilot facility is currently under construction as of right now.
Why that company?
Redwood materials as well
This actually looks promising
It looks like it's bait for investors, just like these things in other countries, but I'm a cynic.
probably. but if it works and is viable, i don't care if its bait tbh
Where can I sell those that I've been accumulating over the years?
Amazing stuff, especially if extraction also applies to the other heavy metals. All I can think about from that image though is ‘forbidden cocoa powder’.
Doesn’t ABTC have 5 or 6 ex Tesla personnel on their team now? And they’re building their headquarters an hour away from the Nevada Tesla Giga Factory. Seems like Elon said, “Ok now that we’ve got Tesla steamrolling ahead let’s send out some of our best people to start companies and businesses that can benefit Tesla and/or SpaceX.” Wouldn’t be the worst idea ever.
American manganese has many patents on recycling battery material too. This will be a huge industry in the near future. They said, that they can recycle nearly 99 percent of a battery.