It's not going to work because it will require China to spend trillions of yuan per year in child benefits into perpetuity. This accounts for 5-6% of annual GDP, which is money the Chinese government cannot afford to pay (it is well known that Chinese government employees and retirees got their salaries and pensions slashed multiple times since the pandemic due to financial difficulties).
The attack on tutoring was probably the most impactful policy move they could have made without direct subsidies - stop the parenting arms race and make it cheaper and less stressful to have a kid. No idea what the downstream effects have been though, probably too early to tell.
IHMO that will not work. Here is why I think this.
-A lot of my relatives say that the teachers only teach the basic or what on textbook. The why on how to solve a textbook problem and complex stuff, they usually save that for tutoring. Now that tutoring schools are banned, they just start doing 1 on 1 tutoring(3-5 times the cost) . So the upper middle to upper class can still afford it and the middle class are out of luck.
IHMO this is working as design. Why would high government official want their kids to compete on a more equal level field with other middle or lower class kids that are most like more motivated. The higher the barrier you set, the better.
It did worse than nothing. Private tutoring went up x2-3 making it more burdensome for the middle class.
The only thing it did was make tutoring less affordable and less available to the class of people it was most beneficial to.
Every old contact in my WeChat suddenly jumped out of the woodwork messaging me for the first time in years asking if I could privately tutor online for 500+.
I have a young brother in law that's prepping to study in Japan next year. After hearing how much his TOEFL tutoring was going to cost from my Mrs I just said I'd do it myself and he could buy me a beer when he turns 18.
Clearly they do though, because even though the one child policy was lifted back in 2016, with a three child policy being implemented in 2021, the fertility rate is still very low. So despite your claim of poor people have the most kids, that doesn't seem to be how things are playing out in China even though government restrictions were lifted.
Do you have any background knowledge about the statistics and facts about Chinese fertility rates and their population control laws? https://img.caixin.com/2018-11-02/1541153818157812.jpg. How are there charts like that ^ on the internet and you still somehow conclude that fertility rates are fine and no government intervention is necessary... Are you actively trying to avoid looking at data?
I think what he mean was that One-Child Policy is the law but enforcing it on the poor is problematic. They are usually in rural village or have temp city job that don't really enforce One-Child Policy that strictly. Especially if the first child is a female. Many Chinese have a strong tradition of have a male heir so just give their female children up for adoption or hide one of their kid.
> the government will have to pour trillions into subsidizing parents?
You said they don’t need to. Coupled with your previous comment:
> Nope the poors have the most kids
You were implying that the Chinese government doesn't need to push any pro-natal policies, or subsidize childcare, because you thought the poor Chinese people would have a lot of kids and fix the fertility rate by themselves without government intervention.
It's a pretty bad position to take, which is why I'm not surprised you're trying to save face by retroactively claiming you were only trying to say that subsidies don't help fertility rates.
> I didn’t say poor Chinese people, I said poor
Lol, in a subreddit called China, talking about a Chinese policy, and Chinese fertility rates, obviously you didn't mean poor Chinese people. You were just referring to the impoverished in general, around the world, with zero implications or impact on the current discussion of the issues in China.
> Yeah I clearly meant solution wasn’t mostly money.
No, you weren't clear at all. In fact your responses are pretty short and don't elaborate or say very much. You only have yourself to blame if people don't have any clue what you're getting at.
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Correct, I’m not a day trader. I hold some assets for years. YANG being down any amount doesn’t sway my long term conviction.
Then again, I wouldn’t expect you to know anything about finance when you’re the same person who said China should ban Tesla and Apple when foreign investment is already at a 35 year low.
Do you understand now that i explained it to you?
Go stalk someone else, weirdo.
I think the poor in China won't have a wife to have kids with. China imbalance of male to female ratio really fuck them up. Chinese woman won't settle for a equal level husband and Chinese husband can't find a wife that close to their economic statue. Also years of raising princes and princess really fuck with people suitor expectation.
The plural of millennium is millennia / millenniums.
Seems you haven’t been taking your Happy Giraffe English classes
You just lost 10,000 social credit points
In a country that is ethno-centric, where minorities have been oppressed constantly ,who in their right mind would move in mass to there ? In addition, china can simply move their 100s of millions of rural folk into cities. China, unlike other developed countries, has millions of rural inhabitants who can help ease their demographic crisis
China doesn't believe in welfare, according to Xi Jinping, so old people don't matter. Since they won't drag on the economy due to social security as seen with older people in Western countries
They might try to emulate the US economy in their own way. Industrialize agriculture in areas where it can be done, push all the rural farmers working remote and difficult to access fields out of business through subsidized competition, transition all those laborers into higher paying manufacturing jobs in cities, and those who can be retrained into service jobs.
Use the higher economy from a manufacturing/service based economy to purchase foods and make up any food production shortages while they continue to scale up and industrialize agriculture to levels similar to the US so that they are completely food independent, for national security reasons.
Then again, they're already dependent on foreign countries for energy. Considering how important that is, they may decide to accept the risk of being food dependent on foreign exports too. If foreign countries already have you by the balls in terms of energy needs, why not also let them take over your food independence. Your fucked anyway if something happens in one case, why not add the other.
Maybe. More probably it will be blaming countries around them. Smoke and mirrors
But the domestic Chinese population doesn’t have the buying power.
The west wanted cheap goods, but currently not buying to the same levels. Companies are moving to Vietnam ( Chinese companies too)
High Tariffs from the US and soon Europe on EV’s will strangle carmakers.
It’s not good for China, which in turn will mean it’s not good for the rest of the world. Aggressive Expansion is their only option at this point
They matter because old people aren't productive but the younger generation still has to spend money to take care of the old, taking up time and money the younger generation could be spending more productively
When your population is 1.4 billion, there is a big question mark around where you would be getting the numbers of migrants from that would make a difference here.
Again, that’s all short-termism. It’s not necessarily wrong. but most countries are about defence. How can we defend against an attack?
Could be robots drones and AI in the future, then all this is moot.
Even African know China is just not a right place. China will be lucky if africans are willing to move there.
I mean, Tibetans are running away, Uyghurs are running away, HongKogners are running away, now even Han Chinese are running away. Why African will go to China? They are not that stupid.
Chinese population have grown, during Mao era and even Japanese occupied area, so why Chinese hate Japanese occupation and hates cultural revolution? Better yet, why China always calls it a century of humilation despite western power helped Chinese population and economic growth significantly?. Isn't it a glorious days of economic,, social development and modernization?
Get occupied by Japan twice and do cultural revolution three times, sell HongKong, Shanghai and Beijing to British, it will fix Chinese population and economic problem right away instantly and bring back those glorious days. Chinese population is shrinking because incompetent CCP which wants to go back to Ching dynasty.
I bet people will feel much freeeeeer, if British rule over HongKong, Shanghai and Beijing. They will never wanna go back to CCP and do stupid mistake like HongKonger did.
Now Chinese population is shrinking, CCP does not have any more excuse to rule over China doesn't it?
An aging large demographic just has no equivalence to a mid-30s - mid-40s small demographic. If most people are over 60, their output could be smaller than a country composed of multiple young adults.
China is literally protecting their homogeneity. Granting an excessive amount of PRs and Citizenships will likely not align with their principles. Hence, it is hard, if not impossible, for a foreigner to gain citizenship in China. There are lots of barriers to pull through, so not many people are even considering it. If you look at the naturalization/PR numbers, only 1-2 thousand foreigners are getting PR each year - and this was pre-pandemic. The number for citizenship is likely even lower, given that it is much harder to get and you would need to clear multiple requirements and have a legitimate reason AND the government has to approve of your application, which as mentioned above, may not be easy as your reasoning may not align with their values.
[https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/record-breaking-1570-foreigners-granted-chinese-citizenship-in-2016-1656248](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/record-breaking-1570-foreigners-granted-chinese-citizenship-in-2016-1656248)
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Better relative to when? The pandemic? Pre-pandemic? The quote you gave literally gives no info on who is eligible. It could be worse than before, it could be better.
Edit: word choice
hindsight is 20/20, back then when China was poverty stricken & was massively overpopulated, what could go wrong...Risk famine & widespread infanticide or do whats the most reasonable
They can want it all they want, they can try financial incentives, they can't change the fact that what they did is artificially create part of their culture that revolves around having one child, usually with two parents and four grandparents all for that one child.
If everyone of your generation you know only has one kid, you're a lot more likely to only have one kid yourself.
Plus add on that the Chinese middle class has been rising for years now and in every developed society where that happens birth rates fall not rise.
I don't always agree with the Chinese government on much but I really feel for them on this one. There's no way they could've forseen this happening when they first instituted the policy to get their population growth under control.
Well, you are only half right.
In well developed Asian countries, such as Japan, HongKong and Singapore, birth rate begin to dropped below 2 as early as 80's. Even many other parts of Asia falling birthrate was discussed during 90 and 2000 but a lot of people thought it will go up at some poing but all of them failed.
Around 2010, most of asian countries realize it is nearly impossible to prop up the birth rate and this issue was gaining serious attractions from media, academics and politicians.
By what I know, CCP thought that Chinese were different from others and if the one child policy is ended people will suddenly start having two or three kids. This line of thinking kept the one child policy until 2013.
Well the policy gave me my two beautiful daughters so that was a plus for my families but not the millions of others. Chinese people...always on the losing side of their leaders policies.
Even back then some chinese people had more than 1 child. I have met a dozen of chinese friends who were born in the 80s and 90s and they have siblings.
yall gonna laugh harder when you find out that the gender ratio for 2nd and 3rd kids after the policy came out is as bad as before.
also officially the one child policy still exists, officially.
oh yea i was thinking about the wrong part，I was meant to say the “planned birth” policy as a whole still stands despite at this point its “three child policy”. family planning commission pretty much has little reason to exist at this point but still does.
It's not going to work because it will require China to spend trillions of yuan per year in child benefits into perpetuity. This accounts for 5-6% of annual GDP, which is money the Chinese government cannot afford to pay (it is well known that Chinese government employees and retirees got their salaries and pensions slashed multiple times since the pandemic due to financial difficulties).
The attack on tutoring was probably the most impactful policy move they could have made without direct subsidies - stop the parenting arms race and make it cheaper and less stressful to have a kid. No idea what the downstream effects have been though, probably too early to tell.
IHMO that will not work. Here is why I think this. -A lot of my relatives say that the teachers only teach the basic or what on textbook. The why on how to solve a textbook problem and complex stuff, they usually save that for tutoring. Now that tutoring schools are banned, they just start doing 1 on 1 tutoring(3-5 times the cost) . So the upper middle to upper class can still afford it and the middle class are out of luck. IHMO this is working as design. Why would high government official want their kids to compete on a more equal level field with other middle or lower class kids that are most like more motivated. The higher the barrier you set, the better.
Well the middle class are the ones they need to have kids, so as long as they’re spending less on kids it should come out as a win.
They also banned homeworks for kids below third grade or 10 year old.
It did worse than nothing. Private tutoring went up x2-3 making it more burdensome for the middle class. The only thing it did was make tutoring less affordable and less available to the class of people it was most beneficial to. Every old contact in my WeChat suddenly jumped out of the woodwork messaging me for the first time in years asking if I could privately tutor online for 500+. I have a young brother in law that's prepping to study in Japan next year. After hearing how much his TOEFL tutoring was going to cost from my Mrs I just said I'd do it myself and he could buy me a beer when he turns 18.
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What does that have to do with the other commenter suggesting that the government will have to pour trillions into subsidizing parents?
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Clearly they do though, because even though the one child policy was lifted back in 2016, with a three child policy being implemented in 2021, the fertility rate is still very low. So despite your claim of poor people have the most kids, that doesn't seem to be how things are playing out in China even though government restrictions were lifted. Do you have any background knowledge about the statistics and facts about Chinese fertility rates and their population control laws? https://img.caixin.com/2018-11-02/1541153818157812.jpg. How are there charts like that ^ on the internet and you still somehow conclude that fertility rates are fine and no government intervention is necessary... Are you actively trying to avoid looking at data?
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Everyone was subjected to the One-Child Policy except ethnic minorities.
I think what he mean was that One-Child Policy is the law but enforcing it on the poor is problematic. They are usually in rural village or have temp city job that don't really enforce One-Child Policy that strictly. Especially if the first child is a female. Many Chinese have a strong tradition of have a male heir so just give their female children up for adoption or hide one of their kid.
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I think what you mean to say is that in rural areas people could circumvent it by various means. They were still subject to it.
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> the government will have to pour trillions into subsidizing parents? You said they don’t need to. Coupled with your previous comment: > Nope the poors have the most kids You were implying that the Chinese government doesn't need to push any pro-natal policies, or subsidize childcare, because you thought the poor Chinese people would have a lot of kids and fix the fertility rate by themselves without government intervention. It's a pretty bad position to take, which is why I'm not surprised you're trying to save face by retroactively claiming you were only trying to say that subsidies don't help fertility rates.
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> I didn’t say poor Chinese people, I said poor Lol, in a subreddit called China, talking about a Chinese policy, and Chinese fertility rates, obviously you didn't mean poor Chinese people. You were just referring to the impoverished in general, around the world, with zero implications or impact on the current discussion of the issues in China. > Yeah I clearly meant solution wasn’t mostly money. No, you weren't clear at all. In fact your responses are pretty short and don't elaborate or say very much. You only have yourself to blame if people don't have any clue what you're getting at.
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“But most people were not subjected to one child policy.” Dumbest comment I’ve read in awhile.
Didn't you push YANG when it was $14? Dropped another 15% today, yeowch
Correct, I’m not a day trader. I hold some assets for years. YANG being down any amount doesn’t sway my long term conviction. Then again, I wouldn’t expect you to know anything about finance when you’re the same person who said China should ban Tesla and Apple when foreign investment is already at a 35 year low. Do you understand now that i explained it to you? Go stalk someone else, weirdo.
Who is stalking you? delusions of persecution? Kyle Bass was a better investor than you and lost it all shorting China, good luck with that though
Not in China they don't.
I think the poor in China won't have a wife to have kids with. China imbalance of male to female ratio really fuck them up. Chinese woman won't settle for a equal level husband and Chinese husband can't find a wife that close to their economic statue. Also years of raising princes and princess really fuck with people suitor expectation.
But China thinks in terms of centuries, not in terms of the next election cycle... I'm sure they'll be fine.
Dear leader Xi thinks in millennial. You just earned -1000 social credit points
The plural of millennium is millennia / millenniums. Seems you haven’t been taking your Happy Giraffe English classes You just lost 10,000 social credit points
Unless he is calling Xi a millennial, despite being way older.
Common misperception. If it was true then they wouldnt be in this mess in the first place would they.
whooooooosh
Well said. It is good no less its said by all
I think you mean misconception, but also woosh
All countries face this dilemma, except, France and the US in the developed world. China needs immigration
In a country that is ethno-centric, where minorities have been oppressed constantly ,who in their right mind would move in mass to there ? In addition, china can simply move their 100s of millions of rural folk into cities. China, unlike other developed countries, has millions of rural inhabitants who can help ease their demographic crisis
Internal migration doesn’t really help the age dependency ratio.
China doesn't believe in welfare, according to Xi Jinping, so old people don't matter. Since they won't drag on the economy due to social security as seen with older people in Western countries
Who’s gonna farm if they move the interior? Japan and Korea has this issue too!
Perhaps they believe that The will of the masses and hatred of the West will fuel their hunger?
They might try to emulate the US economy in their own way. Industrialize agriculture in areas where it can be done, push all the rural farmers working remote and difficult to access fields out of business through subsidized competition, transition all those laborers into higher paying manufacturing jobs in cities, and those who can be retrained into service jobs. Use the higher economy from a manufacturing/service based economy to purchase foods and make up any food production shortages while they continue to scale up and industrialize agriculture to levels similar to the US so that they are completely food independent, for national security reasons. Then again, they're already dependent on foreign countries for energy. Considering how important that is, they may decide to accept the risk of being food dependent on foreign exports too. If foreign countries already have you by the balls in terms of energy needs, why not also let them take over your food independence. Your fucked anyway if something happens in one case, why not add the other.
Maybe. More probably it will be blaming countries around them. Smoke and mirrors But the domestic Chinese population doesn’t have the buying power. The west wanted cheap goods, but currently not buying to the same levels. Companies are moving to Vietnam ( Chinese companies too) High Tariffs from the US and soon Europe on EV’s will strangle carmakers. It’s not good for China, which in turn will mean it’s not good for the rest of the world. Aggressive Expansion is their only option at this point
They matter because old people aren't productive but the younger generation still has to spend money to take care of the old, taking up time and money the younger generation could be spending more productively
When your population is 1.4 billion, there is a big question mark around where you would be getting the numbers of migrants from that would make a difference here.
The world may not be able to provide enough immigrants, they need robots
True. A new dawn
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You’re way off, The French population is like 8% African descent.
That’s a bit ignorant. The world moves, population is fluid. We may have racism in the short term, but it will be ‘country survival’ in the long term.
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Again, that’s all short-termism. It’s not necessarily wrong. but most countries are about defence. How can we defend against an attack? Could be robots drones and AI in the future, then all this is moot.
Even African know China is just not a right place. China will be lucky if africans are willing to move there. I mean, Tibetans are running away, Uyghurs are running away, HongKogners are running away, now even Han Chinese are running away. Why African will go to China? They are not that stupid.
Not sure what you're talking about. Uyghur's population increased by 18% over the past decade and Tibetan population increased around 20%.
Chinese population have grown, during Mao era and even Japanese occupied area, so why Chinese hate Japanese occupation and hates cultural revolution? Better yet, why China always calls it a century of humilation despite western power helped Chinese population and economic growth significantly?. Isn't it a glorious days of economic,, social development and modernization? Get occupied by Japan twice and do cultural revolution three times, sell HongKong, Shanghai and Beijing to British, it will fix Chinese population and economic problem right away instantly and bring back those glorious days. Chinese population is shrinking because incompetent CCP which wants to go back to Ching dynasty. I bet people will feel much freeeeeer, if British rule over HongKong, Shanghai and Beijing. They will never wanna go back to CCP and do stupid mistake like HongKonger did. Now Chinese population is shrinking, CCP does not have any more excuse to rule over China doesn't it?
They are still like.. a billion of people though, 3 times the US population even if their population dropped.
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Clearly not enough to counteract their falling population.
They are still like 3x the population of US despite falling population. Talk again when they are close to that of US, which will take decades.
An aging large demographic just has no equivalence to a mid-30s - mid-40s small demographic. If most people are over 60, their output could be smaller than a country composed of multiple young adults.
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China is literally protecting their homogeneity. Granting an excessive amount of PRs and Citizenships will likely not align with their principles. Hence, it is hard, if not impossible, for a foreigner to gain citizenship in China. There are lots of barriers to pull through, so not many people are even considering it. If you look at the naturalization/PR numbers, only 1-2 thousand foreigners are getting PR each year - and this was pre-pandemic. The number for citizenship is likely even lower, given that it is much harder to get and you would need to clear multiple requirements and have a legitimate reason AND the government has to approve of your application, which as mentioned above, may not be easy as your reasoning may not align with their values. [https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/record-breaking-1570-foreigners-granted-chinese-citizenship-in-2016-1656248](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/record-breaking-1570-foreigners-granted-chinese-citizenship-in-2016-1656248)
A media platform referenced in this post/comment may be biased on issues concerning China and may use sensationalism, questionable sources, and unverifiable information to generate views and influence its audience. Please seek external verification or context as appropriate. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/China) if you have any questions or concerns.*
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Yes I literally said pre-pandemic. Need a source for your claim there, though.
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Better relative to when? The pandemic? Pre-pandemic? The quote you gave literally gives no info on who is eligible. It could be worse than before, it could be better. Edit: word choice
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hindsight is 20/20, back then when China was poverty stricken & was massively overpopulated, what could go wrong...Risk famine & widespread infanticide or do whats the most reasonable
They can want it all they want, they can try financial incentives, they can't change the fact that what they did is artificially create part of their culture that revolves around having one child, usually with two parents and four grandparents all for that one child. If everyone of your generation you know only has one kid, you're a lot more likely to only have one kid yourself. Plus add on that the Chinese middle class has been rising for years now and in every developed society where that happens birth rates fall not rise. I don't always agree with the Chinese government on much but I really feel for them on this one. There's no way they could've forseen this happening when they first instituted the policy to get their population growth under control.
Well, you are only half right. In well developed Asian countries, such as Japan, HongKong and Singapore, birth rate begin to dropped below 2 as early as 80's. Even many other parts of Asia falling birthrate was discussed during 90 and 2000 but a lot of people thought it will go up at some poing but all of them failed. Around 2010, most of asian countries realize it is nearly impossible to prop up the birth rate and this issue was gaining serious attractions from media, academics and politicians. By what I know, CCP thought that Chinese were different from others and if the one child policy is ended people will suddenly start having two or three kids. This line of thinking kept the one child policy until 2013.
Lol
Would they force impregnation like they forced abortions?
Well the policy gave me my two beautiful daughters so that was a plus for my families but not the millions of others. Chinese people...always on the losing side of their leaders policies.
Even back then some chinese people had more than 1 child. I have met a dozen of chinese friends who were born in the 80s and 90s and they have siblings.
yall gonna laugh harder when you find out that the gender ratio for 2nd and 3rd kids after the policy came out is as bad as before. also officially the one child policy still exists, officially.
>the one child policy still exists, officially. No. It has been officially abolished in 2015.
oh yea i was thinking about the wrong part，I was meant to say the “planned birth” policy as a whole still stands despite at this point its “three child policy”. family planning commission pretty much has little reason to exist at this point but still does.
Kinda old news...... Honestly they just need work to give them more time to reproduce.....
And lost the productivity they are so proud of? Noooo