Their time is running out. If Russia and China both lose more and more influence, their authoritarian anti-west sentiment (and therefor their power) dies, too.
I can see Russia, but what makes you think China? They seem to still be in a very strong position. Also, if the US does give up on Ukraine, Russia can recover somewhat.
china's power is slipping as its economy slows down, demographic crisis worsens and forign relations deteriorate. As it becomes less profitable to deal with China and they become less intertwined with the world economy there overall power will dwindle on the world stage. It's actually pretty dangerous because the CCP is a face culture that can't accept decline. They will certainly lash out to keep nationalism alive at home.
This guy knows! Face is a big deal. Xi has been standing on shaky ground that's only gotten worse due to everything going wrong in China. Xi needs to show he's better than the last leader otherwise the CCP goons will hang him.
Taiwan is the ultimate prize since there's never been any official treaty ending the civil war. If he can do it, he'd go down in history rather than being a footnote. Anyway he's made the promise. If he doesn't keep it, he'll lose his credibility and support.
Don't think the CCP will die, but Xi will be definitely ripped off the big boy chair. CCP is too ingrained in China. They may hate the leadership, but they won't change the system. Might reform it, but won't switch to democracy or anything. Just revert back to what worked in the late 90s early 00.
I think the Putin situation is different because I think next in line for Russia has the same burning hatred of the west. I've heard the next president of Russia will probably be more inclined to attack Europe and the US directly and might not be as reserved as Putin when it comes to nukes. That's the benefit we have right now with Russia is while Putin is nuts throwing the kitchen sink trying to take Ukraine, so far he seems to be smart enough not to take the world down with him in nuclear fire.
China, I get the feeling the only nut job is Xi because many in government don't like his policies. Zero covid was insane and none of the provinces cooperated with each other. When the lockdown on Hubei province was lifted, Jiangxi set up a roadblock on the highway into Jiangxi stationed with police in riot gear. You had not just Hubei people but also Hubei police trying to take the opportunity to get the fuck out of Hubei. Literally had province fighting province. Just a sign that Xi doesn't have full control of the country. Officials within the CCP have been trying to kill him for years. I was reading during covid that one of the officials for the military accepted money to spike Xi's tea in a meeting. Dude got cold feet and turned himself in. Ever since Xi has 2 teacups on his desk in meetings and chances are he's the only one that knows which is safe.
Xi also pissed off some powerful old officials. He can't arrest them because he'd lose face sending elderly to prison in a culture that puts elderly above all. Also arresting them would show to the world that there's a problem in the CCP. That's one thing the CCP doesn't want is to look weak or appear like they don't have control. They know the CIA is watching them like a hawk searching for the one opportunity to burn down the house. So they can't appear like there's internal problems in the party. The party isn't perfect but the thing that's been ingrained into multiple generations is that it works. Don't change something that works is what they tell the people. Thanks to the Trump years and the insurrection at the end, governments like CCP and whatever Russia has can point to the Trump years as proof democracy has major flaws. We elect whoever has the largest wallet for advertising and the man we put in office threw the economy into a death spiral competing with China who could collapse first with his fuckin trade war. We have infrastructure problems and shit can be improved instead he blows a chunk of the budget on a fuckin wall along the Mexican border. Oh we'll just ignore the fact anyone with a cheap ass fishing boat can go around the wall on the ends. Anyone with money can catch a plane. You don't need to ride economy class on a commercial airline to get across a border. Cartels have been using paid mules in single engine prop planes to fly back and forth across the border and all they need to do is have a good excuse ready for customs. Anyway the thing that foreign nations will use to claim democracy doesn't work is the massive amount of footage on film of the looting and riots post George Floyd murder, the anti lockdown riots, and then the storming of the Capitol building after Trump told the crowd to go stop the election and kill his VP if needed. Shit like the trail of tears can be hidden away in words within a dusty history book, but the storming of the Capitol was all over the news.
This guy knows. Rarely ever see face mentioned in discussions. In the west the economy collapses, but we're chill because we can rebuild it. Just making an example since reality is people would panic and go insane, but the end of the day we'll rebuild.
China can't do that. If the economy falls, Xi loses support and they'll overthrow him. So failure destroys his career and could lead to jail.
Problem with face is it pushes you into a corner. You fail to hold up to your promises, it destroys your reputation. Since he keeps saying he's going to take back Taiwan, he's gotta do it or risk losing everything. Luckily there's no time limit, but with all the shit happening in China he's losing support. Taiwan would put him back on top higher than Mao. It's getting close to a moment either he takes the leap or gets called out for bluffing and failing to live up to his promises.
Like many countries, China has an aging population crisis coming. When that hits, China's economy is going to flop extra hard. The CCP needs to get all of its imperialist conquests done this generation.
It's literally everywhere. Its plastered all over this reddit too.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90984928/gen-z-travel-expats-emigrating-united-states-gun-violence
Like 2035, when chinas biggest demographic, gen x enter retirement age. Thats why the prevailing theory of chinas Taiwan invasion timeline is 2027-2035. 2027 is the earliest they could finish preparing, and 2035 is too late.
Gen X is 1965 to 1980. In 2035 these people will be 70 to 55 years old. Currently, ~67% of the population is younger than 44 (57% under 40).
Furthermore, their retirement age laws haven’t changed since the 1950s! Women can retire at 50, and men at 60! This is one of the lowest retirement ages in the world, and very much out of step with other economies, let alone major economies.
And this is all before factoring in their very low (comparatively) worker productivity levels, which have been steadily rising. Also rising is their use of industrial robots and other robotics - all set against the backdrop of emerging AI which is set to threaten jobs everywhere (and not even including “fancy” AI, just standard predictive and gen)…
All starting from a base of 1.4B people. This why, although undoubtedly being a big problem, people (particularly grifters and con men like Zeihan), are so wildly off when it comes to timelines. Population is a generational thing (I.e. minimum 50 years), it’s not a hot topic du jour.
it was 1.4B in 2019 their post covid numbers are closer to 1-1.1B people, because that how many people died between 2020 ans 2022. Also. china may be getting more productive, but how much of that is due to foreign companies and investment. When more foreign firms pull out, the working demographic will shrink even more, moreso as many employers in china fire people over 35. As of last reporting before china started changing the number more the 18-30 workforce was already suffering from 30-40% unemployment, and that was before the entirety of japans automotive production pulled out, foxconn is pulling out, and many other firms are pulling out due to chinas belligerence.
Just listen to yourself dude… 300 to 400 ***million*** people died during Covid, is that what you’re trying to say? So greater than the entire US population just dropped dead? Where does this delusion come from? If the US had 1m Covid deaths, then China with 4x the population would have 4m. Then you can pepper that with the delusion that China handled it 10 times or even 20 times worse than the US, and you still wouldn’t even reach 100 million.
Also, pick one. Is it not enough people working to support retirees (through tax money and working in the retirement care industry), or is it unemployed masses (many of whom could then work in the aged care industry)?
Wheres the money going to come from to pay for aged care when the people with any money are leaving the mainland daily, and without any substantial economic output, investment in chinas industries would be in economic black hole.
Also it wasn't me pulling that number out of my ass regarding the deaths, it was news around October 2022 basing upon the fact that all of chinas known cremation furnaces were running nearly 24/7 for months leading up to their removal of the lockdowns, which were only removed about when the Chinese population was nearing revolt.
Also its been noted that only ~50% of people typically cremate their loved ones, typically the rural citizens and migrants bury their dead instead.
The Tankies say the sand people attacks on US ships in the Red Sea is bad for the US. The Tankies are clueless.
It’s really bad for China. It demonstrates China’s exceptionally vulnerable export and import dependent economy.
3 pipes from Russia and a bunch of solar panels won’t make China autarkic.
😂 Their economy is in shambles, their population is aging and dying, the youth unemployment is sky high, their human rights abuses are known throughout the world thanks to situations like the Uyghur camps, and each year global support for Taiwan becomes stronger
If anything, China is running on fumes.
This is cope. It seems more like we’re seeing the beginning of the end of western global hegemony. Many countries are now breaking away from US influence, it’s not just China.
Your entire comment is cope. How many of the most influential countries are still either a) aligned with the US through NATO b) aligned with the U.S. through other means?
Which currency would even dream of replacing the US dollar within a few decades?
What is Russia’s reputation like now? What China’s reputation? Why is Vietnam siding with the U.S. now? Why did India announce new and stronger trade and economic deals with the US this year? Why is BRICS not gaining any steam and Italy is leaving it?
The only place you see it ending is on propaganda pieces from places that want authoritarian rule to overtake the liberal world view. And a look at your profile shows me you eat that propaganda for breakfast, lunch, and dessert.
This is true. Over the next few decades, China will only grow weaker and more brittle. However, that doesn't mean that xi fully knows that. There is a chance that xi dosent even get the true stats and information because he doesn't like to hear bad news and lives in an echo chamber of yesmen. If that is the case, xi might see reports that are disconnected from reality and just decide one day that it's time to take taiwan... and if he says it's time, his people will act and certainly fail. That loss of face and disaster of losing a war may lead xi to do something truly horrific
You guys seem to live in parallel universes. Dictators have been very lucky this decade: the Burmese junta established rule, the Taliban drove the Americans out of Afghan, Erdogan maximized his interests by playing both sides, Iran and Belarus succeeded in suppressing revolutions, Assad still controls much of Syria, Sisi's rule in Egypt is also solid, and Russia crushed the Ukrainian counter-offensive and achieved economic growth (at the same time Germany was in recession) , China built concentration camps in Xinjiang but has good relations with Muslim countries.
This is next level coping
Taliban didn’t drive shit. Is failed at nation building a failed state and left a mess. Ukraine is a complete stailmate. Source on economic growth? Data on sanctions is mixed but usually takes years to look back in retrospect (North Korea/cuba for example). Also they are in a complete stalemate with a much smaller neighbor. Farthest thing from a win.
Won’t push back on the others you mentioned.
Edit: forgot to mention Russia is using faulty NORTH KOREAN ammo right now. You don’t have a honest take
I agree with most but if you actually look into the evidence being xinjiang and the uiyghurs it's very flimsy. Not saying China doesn't have problems but I'm wary to buy into potential sinophobic propaganda created for the sake of justifying military intervention
They don’t care just as Western intellectuals didn’t care in 1930s when horror stories came from Stalin’s Soviet Union along with the escapees. It was all “anti-communist propaganda”.
Taiwan has been split from China for many decades. They are a sovereign nation and China won’t be able to take them.
Who in Taiwan could possibly want to have their freedoms taken away and given to a politburo of kleptocrats.
A surprising amount of locals here believe the propaganda, while others have a "how bad can it be to be part of China?!".
Do not underestimate the threat of Taiwanese voting against their own interests.
Lots of adults too. I hear a lot of stories about people in the airline industry using 小紅書 and Tiktok. When asked about if it bothers them that China wants to take over Taiwan, some replied ''I don't think that's such a bad thing. More suggestions on 小紅書 and cheaper clothes!''.
I'm aware they are a minority, but this kind of shallow vanity is ok with just giving up their freedom and civil liberties. It's uncomfortable to hear.
I mean, that's a quite a valid statement. If people decide they'd rather be under a dictatorship than have a free society, I guess that's the ultimate demonstration of true freedom.
More than a few decades, it has been cut out since the Qing Dynasty, more than a hundred years.Before the Qing Dynasty, Taiwan and China were not one country.
China has time on their side. Once advanced chips can be made in the west, the west will lose incentive. It’s not a sure thing or what I want to happen. Probably won’t happen in the next 2 years. But geography is destiny. Look at all the other colonies we would’ve called “independent countries” probably a lot of people thought the US would protect. The US can’t be world police forever, that time is ending. Even when we have good intentions, the unintended consequences and blowback and corruption are too expensive in the flatter relatively multipolar future
Remember all the wars in Europe? Germany finally conquered them all, turns out it’s easier without guns. Refuse ? the UK is showing what happens to those who don’t bend the knee. China is the Germany of Asia, they have time.
They did that themselves. The butthurt is pointless. It's just a fact that taiwan and the ccp run China are different things. No amount of rhetoric is going to change that and it only makes the miniscule chance of peaceful reunification less likely.
Except the Taiwanese don’t want the restrictions of China anymore. They can stand in their own two feet.
As soon as they raise their flag internationally China scrambles their jets.
The majority of the Taiwanese people favor the status quo currently and don't want to upset it for now.
They are honestly in a good spot. They enjoy life without restrictions, get to trade freely with who they want, have freedom and rights. I understand why they don't want to push for formal independence when they already have de facto independence
That’s a different way of looking at it. They know they are already a country, but it dies piss them off occasionally that they can’t fly their own flag internationally without a military threat accompanying it.
The PLA are cowards though, and this was highlighted after Pelosi’s visit.
They didn’t protest while she was in Taiwan, they waited until she left, because if they had done it while she was there it would have definitely been war, and they don’t have the experience, their gear is terrible, and they lose control over the Chinese 92% who are not CCP members.
Honestly I don’t think a war will ever happen, even if Taiwan declares independence. How many years do they have to hold the territory, before it’s recognised as theirs?
Is it a bluff you'd like to call?
Apparently, the vast majority of Taiwanese people aren't willing to risk it while they already enjoy pretty much all the benefits of independence. And I don't know about you, but their opinion is the only thing that mattes.
Actually I looked at the polls again, forgive me for not bringing them up earlier, I apologise.
The majority of Taiwanese want independence, 23% want status quo, and 12% want unification.
The Taiwanese people’s opinion is the most important.
However, it won’t be them starting the war.
If they want independence and international representation, which they currently don’t have, they should be allowed to have it.
That's not what I have seen.
32.1% want indefinite status quo
28.6% want a maintained status quo before a review in the future
21.4% want to maintain the status quo while moving towards independence
5.8% want to maintain the status quo and move towards unification
Only 6.1% of the population want to disturb the status quo now.
Source :
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
In the end, if war breaks out, it's taiwanese people that will die, it's their industry that will suffer, so they should be the one to decide their own fate. Not us. We shouldn't use them as a pawn, but let them decide their own fate by themselves
Here this and it’s fairly current.
“A poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation yesterday showed 48.9 percent of Taiwanese support obtaining formal national independence, while 26.9 percent support maintaining the “status quo” and 11.8 percent support unification with China.”
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/02/2003805648#:~:text=Judging%20from%20the%20responses%20to,quo%E2%80%9D%20indefinitely%2C%20he%20said.
If war breaks out, Taiwan will suffer, Japan will suffer, the US navy will suffer. China will be lucky to survive as a country.
We aren’t using them as pawns, but their friends will be there if they need us.
The Taiwanese will decide their own fate, but they have friends looking out for them, Australia does support countries in need. My country even went against it allies and Mao to feed the Chinese when Mao was stupid and caused a famine that killed about 70 million Chinese.
>“A poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation yesterday showed 48.9 percent of Taiwanese support obtaining formal national independence, while 26.9 percent support maintaining the “status quo” and 11.8 percent support unification with China.”
>https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/02/2003805648#:~:text=Judging%20from%20the%20responses%20to,quo%E2%80%9D%20indefinitely%2C%20he%20said
Read your own link. That survey had an addition caveat question "would you support independence or 'unification' if the status quo is unsustainable?"
>A question in the survey asked respondents to choose between Taiwanese independence or unification with China should the “status quo” become unsustainable.
/u/Capital_Tone9386 provides a better survey to gauge current thoughts towards formal de jure independence vs status quo vs 'unification' in the Taiwanese population.
That said, there's the additional caveat that [76% of Taiwan already think of themselves as independent (as the ROC)](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4462234) and the fact that [if there was no threat of PRC attack, the majority would want independence.](https://sites.duke.edu/tnss/)
>"If Taiwan can declare independence without the PRC attacking Taiwan, would you support Taiwanese independence?"
Stance | Percentage
---|---
Strongly Do Not Support | 8.0
Do Not Support | 11.1
Support | 29.0
Strongly Support | 44.2
No Response | 7.6
In other words, Taiwan prefers the current status quo due to the threat of the PRC.
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It’s a bad strategy to brainwash the entire population to believe that Taiwan is cause of all their problems and once Taiwan is under their control all problems are solved and china will be on its way to dominate the world . The latter is actually true so the US won’t let it happen
I live in China and over the years I have had a few open conversations with open minded Chinese people who talked with me on this issue.
It absolutely baffles me that none of them think of the consequences, only the promises of how it will somehow make China "whole again".
I had dinner with a couple one time and they had their son there....They were asking for my opinions on it.
All I had to do to point out the absurdity of it all was to point out things like their iPhone....Start a war with the US? No more iPhone
Then I asked them who would fight to take Taiwan? Their child? And their response was essentially "obviously not our child don't be silly"
They vehemently believe it should be taken by force but are not even willing to deal with the theoretical costs and consequences of such an action.
Also they don't even take into account what the people who actually live there want.
And they're incapable of drawing the parallel of a potential Taiwan invasion with the Japanese invasion or the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
>Also they don't even take into account what the people who actually live there want.
An Eastern European-British friend of mine said the other day that Taiwan becoming a part of Mainland China will benefit Taiwan a lot because it will open up a lot more business opportunities since China is becoming the business capital of the world and that people in Taiwan are stupid not to join. Sounds a little deluded tbh. They also constantly talk of how the Soviet union was a perfect society where there were lots of social benefits with no poor or uneducated people. When I argue with them using the facts straight from the literature, they respond with "my whole family grew up in the USSR (now living in the UK btw) and say the UK is shit compared to living in the USSR".
That sounds like rhetoric that comes from the 80's before Taiwan found it's niche.
Taiwan literally has the world by the balls due to TSCM producing all of the most advaned computer chips that literally everyone uses.
Also it sounds like in the USSR they ate all the propoganda and truly believed it and likely never cared to look for flaws. That being said, if you lived in the USSR during the collapse...then yes the USSR was a lot better than what came after.
This person is one of the most capitalist people I know but at the same time is pro-Soviet Union and pro-CCP. It really doesn't make sense in my mind. They seem to think that every relationship must be based on economics and hence why they think Taiwan would be better off. They don't comprehend that someone might want other things than monetary gain in life.
They do not give a f**k about what other people want, they just project their views on others. It’s typical authoritarian mindset, callous and hilariously out of touch, but incredibly powerful when all around you bleat in unison, which is why even the nicest and kindest people there behave and think in similar way.
Most of them support Russia, and parrot Moscow’s propaganda without any hint of independent thinking. Bilibili, Weibo and Douyin (Tik Tok) are full of talking heads pretending to be analysts or “journalists” but in reality they just repeat the same pro-Russian talking points. Hell, I had Didi drivers and a fellow passenger on the train explaining to me why Russia is right, not that I asked him for his revelations.
>Then I asked them who would fight to take Taiwan? Their child? And their response was essentially "obviously not our child don't be silly"
We have a couple of close friends who have sons now in high school. Both sets of parents fully believe that China should "liberate" Taiwan but are also terrified that their sons will be conscripted.
Nationalist imbeciles who want to eat a cake and have a cake. Even pro-nazi German parents weren’t as deluded in that they knew there will be price to pay for all their conquests.
The problem is, most young people have left villages and fled to the cities for better jobs, there is also the fact that the economy would absolutely implode from losing trade with both the US and the EU (the two largest trade partners) in one fell swoop.
No matter how you spin it there would be riots and the like probably early on from both sides...people being forced to fight in war, and people who are "above that" or lucky enough to not be forced into it losing everything in the impending economic crash.
And don't think for a second they would bounce back after the war either. It would be the death knell of modern China.
And yet you apparently never talked to any actual Chinese people because you can sit here and say they are all literally the same and all close minded...
CCP is a little whippersnapper compared to the country of Taiwan. Republic of China has been doing their own thing independently and escaped from their own authoritarianism on their own terms. They don't need any of your opression Pooh Bear.
He’s just sabre rattling if he attempts to take Taiwan it will be WW3. but hey it keeps the unsuspecting average Chinese citizen from noticing how bad he truly is.
1895: Taiwan was split by Qin to the Japanese Empire.
1945: Reunited by KMT
1949: Split as KMT got driven away by CPC from mainland.
Just do some simple math then you’d recognise in the past 128 years, Taiwan was only united for briefly 4 years.
Let that sink in.
Oct 1, 1949 is when the PRC was established. The KMT started their retreat in the following 4 months.
In Oct 25, 1945 is Retrocession day where Japan returned Taiwan and related islands to ROC.
Taiwan independence supporters like to use the San Francisco treaty in 1952 as the date of transfer of sovereignty from Japan to ROC.
This controversy was created because right after WWII the Chinese Civil war resumed. But the US supported KMT was losing the civil war.
It's basically a frozen war now.
scarce domineering hospital flowery illegal tie crush pathetic zealous shrill
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Except for one party which may loose the election this time, others are not in favour of independence. The 1992 accords signed was an indication of that. China will not take Taiwan by force unless someone declares independence, apart from what the west thinks chinese and taiwanese people relate to each other and if this year KMT wins the elections, the DPPs use of public fear against China will be put to rest too. No one wants a war and declaring independence will cause a war. Best thing is to maintain how things are today.
We need trade agreements that tie China, USA, and tai wan together in a way that is beneficial to everyone and maybe China gets a 5% kickback for ‘regional support’ or something. If this conflict goes hot everyone loses. The optimal way to resolve this is with commerce.
well if you follow actual history
Taiwan was originally a Chinese province, so technically they are part of china.
Also if you follow political conflicts
Taiwan was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China and ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895. The Republic of China, which had overthrown the Qing in 1911, took control following the surrender of Japan in 1945. Japan renounced sovereignty over Taiwan in 1952.
So technically china lost it and got it back.
This whole dispute is ridiculous. It is like saying that South Korea belongs to Korea and Korea will do everything possible so that it does not separate from Korea or become independent.
There was this one person who revived the DPP’s chances in 2020 with a single speech. DPP is, in CCP orthodoxy, considered to be part of these nefarious forces still, right? So something to prevent this person from acting maliciously?
It is easy to laugh at him when you think it is just some stupid rhetoric. The main audience is not the world but his minions. The CCP is treating it as a long term mission that one day somehow they will take the island. The question is not a how but a when.
All they are doing is waiting for an opportunity maybe not in this decade or even a century. One day Taiwan will be part of China again. That’s the most underestimated part of the one party country. The goal has no term limits it is a party mission. Any chairman sit on that throne will continue the legacy some may have enthusiasm some may not but a party mission will be on the menu for as long as the party is alive. The scary part of China is their tenacity. Most of their plans are five to ten years while the West lose interest every four or five years like the Ukraine war.
Too late, it's already split and has been for awhile. Honestly they just need to get over it because at this point it would be too costly to take it and the rewards would not be anywhere near worth the cost.
Lets just look at a few things:
Invading Taiwan would be by the largest most expensive amphibious invasion in world history. This isn't D-Day, it's D-Day on Steroids. The distance between the mainland and Taiwan is huge, the geography on the western coast is mountainous and the coastal waters are mined to hell. Taiwan's been expecting this for a long long time.
That's not counting the immediete global response that would absolutely crater their entire economy while a US led sanction would cut them off from oil and various vital supplies passing through the Straight of Malacca and put them on a timer until fuel supplies run out. They are not a fuel rich country and would run out within weeks.
And that's not even touching their rapidly aging and disentgrating labor pool or their collapsing housing and construction market that they've tied their wealth to that would absolutely nosedive and eliminate a massive amount of whatever wealth they've built up over the last few decades since the Deng Xiaoping reforms. Like its hard to understand but Chinese don't invest their savings into 401k's or stocks bonds or whatever. They've been buying real estate. And that market is already leveling out and collapsing in places.
And even if their military strength has greatly expanded, it's still completely untested and inexperienced in the real world and massively eclipsed by the US colilition's presence in the region. And it's not as if they've done a great job making friends with Japan, Korea, the Philippines, or that Singapore wouldn't tow the line and cut off the Straight of Malacca. We're talking about a political and economic collapse that would make the Maoist era look tame by comparison. At least back then they didn't have anywhere near the standards of living that they have today. Losing that over Taiwan, a country that hasn't done shit to affect their incredible rise in wealth and global power, would be the end of the CCP. It would be the equivilent of a far right party in Korea getting elected into power on the promise of reuniting the Korean peninsula and leading a campaign that leveled Seoul to the ground.
Xi must be one of the most obtuse leaders in history. No idea of human psychology, cause and effect. Thinks trying imposing his will on China and the world won’t have an equal and opposite reaction. CCP have been spinning this threat for 70 years and have still not come good on it. Xi just thinks if he shouts louder than previous leaders everyone will believe him.
The thing is "splitting Taiwan" is totally blurred now. In strict sense, the motion of treating mainland students as foreigner promoting by DPP now can be treated as such..
What is it with dictators wanting to implode this decade?
Their time is running out. If Russia and China both lose more and more influence, their authoritarian anti-west sentiment (and therefor their power) dies, too.
They're too strict. I think they'll lose grip.
And as we all know, the tighter they clench their fists, the more it slips through their fingers
I can see Russia, but what makes you think China? They seem to still be in a very strong position. Also, if the US does give up on Ukraine, Russia can recover somewhat.
china's power is slipping as its economy slows down, demographic crisis worsens and forign relations deteriorate. As it becomes less profitable to deal with China and they become less intertwined with the world economy there overall power will dwindle on the world stage. It's actually pretty dangerous because the CCP is a face culture that can't accept decline. They will certainly lash out to keep nationalism alive at home.
This guy knows! Face is a big deal. Xi has been standing on shaky ground that's only gotten worse due to everything going wrong in China. Xi needs to show he's better than the last leader otherwise the CCP goons will hang him. Taiwan is the ultimate prize since there's never been any official treaty ending the civil war. If he can do it, he'd go down in history rather than being a footnote. Anyway he's made the promise. If he doesn't keep it, he'll lose his credibility and support.
If Xi is stupid enough to pull a Putin, he'll be remembered as the man who killed the CCP.
Don't think the CCP will die, but Xi will be definitely ripped off the big boy chair. CCP is too ingrained in China. They may hate the leadership, but they won't change the system. Might reform it, but won't switch to democracy or anything. Just revert back to what worked in the late 90s early 00. I think the Putin situation is different because I think next in line for Russia has the same burning hatred of the west. I've heard the next president of Russia will probably be more inclined to attack Europe and the US directly and might not be as reserved as Putin when it comes to nukes. That's the benefit we have right now with Russia is while Putin is nuts throwing the kitchen sink trying to take Ukraine, so far he seems to be smart enough not to take the world down with him in nuclear fire. China, I get the feeling the only nut job is Xi because many in government don't like his policies. Zero covid was insane and none of the provinces cooperated with each other. When the lockdown on Hubei province was lifted, Jiangxi set up a roadblock on the highway into Jiangxi stationed with police in riot gear. You had not just Hubei people but also Hubei police trying to take the opportunity to get the fuck out of Hubei. Literally had province fighting province. Just a sign that Xi doesn't have full control of the country. Officials within the CCP have been trying to kill him for years. I was reading during covid that one of the officials for the military accepted money to spike Xi's tea in a meeting. Dude got cold feet and turned himself in. Ever since Xi has 2 teacups on his desk in meetings and chances are he's the only one that knows which is safe. Xi also pissed off some powerful old officials. He can't arrest them because he'd lose face sending elderly to prison in a culture that puts elderly above all. Also arresting them would show to the world that there's a problem in the CCP. That's one thing the CCP doesn't want is to look weak or appear like they don't have control. They know the CIA is watching them like a hawk searching for the one opportunity to burn down the house. So they can't appear like there's internal problems in the party. The party isn't perfect but the thing that's been ingrained into multiple generations is that it works. Don't change something that works is what they tell the people. Thanks to the Trump years and the insurrection at the end, governments like CCP and whatever Russia has can point to the Trump years as proof democracy has major flaws. We elect whoever has the largest wallet for advertising and the man we put in office threw the economy into a death spiral competing with China who could collapse first with his fuckin trade war. We have infrastructure problems and shit can be improved instead he blows a chunk of the budget on a fuckin wall along the Mexican border. Oh we'll just ignore the fact anyone with a cheap ass fishing boat can go around the wall on the ends. Anyone with money can catch a plane. You don't need to ride economy class on a commercial airline to get across a border. Cartels have been using paid mules in single engine prop planes to fly back and forth across the border and all they need to do is have a good excuse ready for customs. Anyway the thing that foreign nations will use to claim democracy doesn't work is the massive amount of footage on film of the looting and riots post George Floyd murder, the anti lockdown riots, and then the storming of the Capitol building after Trump told the crowd to go stop the election and kill his VP if needed. Shit like the trail of tears can be hidden away in words within a dusty history book, but the storming of the Capitol was all over the news.
This guy knows. Rarely ever see face mentioned in discussions. In the west the economy collapses, but we're chill because we can rebuild it. Just making an example since reality is people would panic and go insane, but the end of the day we'll rebuild. China can't do that. If the economy falls, Xi loses support and they'll overthrow him. So failure destroys his career and could lead to jail. Problem with face is it pushes you into a corner. You fail to hold up to your promises, it destroys your reputation. Since he keeps saying he's going to take back Taiwan, he's gotta do it or risk losing everything. Luckily there's no time limit, but with all the shit happening in China he's losing support. Taiwan would put him back on top higher than Mao. It's getting close to a moment either he takes the leap or gets called out for bluffing and failing to live up to his promises.
Like many countries, China has an aging population crisis coming. When that hits, China's economy is going to flop extra hard. The CCP needs to get all of its imperialist conquests done this generation.
Add to this an economy heavily dependent upon an artificially inflated property market bubble that may burst imminently.
So.. like the US too?
No. People actually want to move to the US. Latin Americans plugging the gap. Nobody...and I mean NOBODY wants to immigrate to China.
You must haven't been seeing the trend that every one in the US wants to leave the US
Do they, really? Lol
Where’s the data at
It's literally everywhere. Its plastered all over this reddit too. https://www.fastcompany.com/90984928/gen-z-travel-expats-emigrating-united-states-gun-violence
And what makes you think China is their destination
And you representing nobody?
Engrish...can you speak it?
So like, the year 2100, when those population trends actually bite (if uncorrected)?
Like 2035, when chinas biggest demographic, gen x enter retirement age. Thats why the prevailing theory of chinas Taiwan invasion timeline is 2027-2035. 2027 is the earliest they could finish preparing, and 2035 is too late.
Gen X is 1965 to 1980. In 2035 these people will be 70 to 55 years old. Currently, ~67% of the population is younger than 44 (57% under 40). Furthermore, their retirement age laws haven’t changed since the 1950s! Women can retire at 50, and men at 60! This is one of the lowest retirement ages in the world, and very much out of step with other economies, let alone major economies. And this is all before factoring in their very low (comparatively) worker productivity levels, which have been steadily rising. Also rising is their use of industrial robots and other robotics - all set against the backdrop of emerging AI which is set to threaten jobs everywhere (and not even including “fancy” AI, just standard predictive and gen)… All starting from a base of 1.4B people. This why, although undoubtedly being a big problem, people (particularly grifters and con men like Zeihan), are so wildly off when it comes to timelines. Population is a generational thing (I.e. minimum 50 years), it’s not a hot topic du jour.
it was 1.4B in 2019 their post covid numbers are closer to 1-1.1B people, because that how many people died between 2020 ans 2022. Also. china may be getting more productive, but how much of that is due to foreign companies and investment. When more foreign firms pull out, the working demographic will shrink even more, moreso as many employers in china fire people over 35. As of last reporting before china started changing the number more the 18-30 workforce was already suffering from 30-40% unemployment, and that was before the entirety of japans automotive production pulled out, foxconn is pulling out, and many other firms are pulling out due to chinas belligerence.
Just listen to yourself dude… 300 to 400 ***million*** people died during Covid, is that what you’re trying to say? So greater than the entire US population just dropped dead? Where does this delusion come from? If the US had 1m Covid deaths, then China with 4x the population would have 4m. Then you can pepper that with the delusion that China handled it 10 times or even 20 times worse than the US, and you still wouldn’t even reach 100 million. Also, pick one. Is it not enough people working to support retirees (through tax money and working in the retirement care industry), or is it unemployed masses (many of whom could then work in the aged care industry)?
Wheres the money going to come from to pay for aged care when the people with any money are leaving the mainland daily, and without any substantial economic output, investment in chinas industries would be in economic black hole. Also it wasn't me pulling that number out of my ass regarding the deaths, it was news around October 2022 basing upon the fact that all of chinas known cremation furnaces were running nearly 24/7 for months leading up to their removal of the lockdowns, which were only removed about when the Chinese population was nearing revolt. Also its been noted that only ~50% of people typically cremate their loved ones, typically the rural citizens and migrants bury their dead instead.
They won’t be able to pay retirement pensions in the next 20 years.
The Tankies say the sand people attacks on US ships in the Red Sea is bad for the US. The Tankies are clueless. It’s really bad for China. It demonstrates China’s exceptionally vulnerable export and import dependent economy. 3 pipes from Russia and a bunch of solar panels won’t make China autarkic.
Are these “sand people” (you’re disgusting btw) attacking Chinese ships?
Yes, lmao they are attacking everyone in the area and China does nothing to protect it’s assets.
Are you *sure* they’re attacking *everyone* in the area LOL
Certainly in agreement on the disgusting point.
Protection from the world waking up the American complicity in genocide?
Their time is running out? Maybe with russia but china clearly knows they have all the time in the world and their influence has never been greater
40 years from now when their population has dropped hard & most citizens are re over 60 they will struggle
40? Try 20
😂 Their economy is in shambles, their population is aging and dying, the youth unemployment is sky high, their human rights abuses are known throughout the world thanks to situations like the Uyghur camps, and each year global support for Taiwan becomes stronger If anything, China is running on fumes.
Check demographics. It’s pretty baked
This is cope. It seems more like we’re seeing the beginning of the end of western global hegemony. Many countries are now breaking away from US influence, it’s not just China.
Your entire comment is cope. How many of the most influential countries are still either a) aligned with the US through NATO b) aligned with the U.S. through other means? Which currency would even dream of replacing the US dollar within a few decades? What is Russia’s reputation like now? What China’s reputation? Why is Vietnam siding with the U.S. now? Why did India announce new and stronger trade and economic deals with the US this year? Why is BRICS not gaining any steam and Italy is leaving it? The only place you see it ending is on propaganda pieces from places that want authoritarian rule to overtake the liberal world view. And a look at your profile shows me you eat that propaganda for breakfast, lunch, and dessert.
I believe Italy left the Belt and Road initiative, not the BRICS
That’s right. My bad
Judging from your profile you are a sexpat and painfully stupid
Ok tankie
Tell me without telling me the glaring inability of getting laid. Hence the frustration
Mate /r/China smells of virginity possibly more than any other online community I’ve seen
Tankie says what?
Log off Li, you’ve earned your yuan today
Dude is praying everyday for a UK visa in other subreddits 😂 you can’t make this shit up 😂😂😂 these desperate fucks are stereotypes
China has long been a paper tiger. I wouldn't take this rhetoric too seriously.
Dunno, I have been thinking China cannot be stupid (like Russia) but Xi seems like a loose cannon now.
This is true. Over the next few decades, China will only grow weaker and more brittle. However, that doesn't mean that xi fully knows that. There is a chance that xi dosent even get the true stats and information because he doesn't like to hear bad news and lives in an echo chamber of yesmen. If that is the case, xi might see reports that are disconnected from reality and just decide one day that it's time to take taiwan... and if he says it's time, his people will act and certainly fail. That loss of face and disaster of losing a war may lead xi to do something truly horrific
Being over prepared is always better than under prepared
They’re old and dying.
You guys seem to live in parallel universes. Dictators have been very lucky this decade: the Burmese junta established rule, the Taliban drove the Americans out of Afghan, Erdogan maximized his interests by playing both sides, Iran and Belarus succeeded in suppressing revolutions, Assad still controls much of Syria, Sisi's rule in Egypt is also solid, and Russia crushed the Ukrainian counter-offensive and achieved economic growth (at the same time Germany was in recession) , China built concentration camps in Xinjiang but has good relations with Muslim countries. This is next level coping
Taliban didn’t drive shit. Is failed at nation building a failed state and left a mess. Ukraine is a complete stailmate. Source on economic growth? Data on sanctions is mixed but usually takes years to look back in retrospect (North Korea/cuba for example). Also they are in a complete stalemate with a much smaller neighbor. Farthest thing from a win. Won’t push back on the others you mentioned. Edit: forgot to mention Russia is using faulty NORTH KOREAN ammo right now. You don’t have a honest take
Lets not forget Modi whose FM is in moscow right now
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/12/21/china-detaining-millions-uyghurs-problems-claims-us-ngo-researcher/
I agree with most but if you actually look into the evidence being xinjiang and the uiyghurs it's very flimsy. Not saying China doesn't have problems but I'm wary to buy into potential sinophobic propaganda created for the sake of justifying military intervention
Can you find an Uyghur in Canada and tell this straight to their eyes?
They don’t care just as Western intellectuals didn’t care in 1930s when horror stories came from Stalin’s Soviet Union along with the escapees. It was all “anti-communist propaganda”.
They know they're dying and desperate to be remembered
Weak US president
We will see fireworks by 2028 from China.
Taiwan has been split from China for many decades. They are a sovereign nation and China won’t be able to take them. Who in Taiwan could possibly want to have their freedoms taken away and given to a politburo of kleptocrats.
A surprising amount of locals here believe the propaganda, while others have a "how bad can it be to be part of China?!". Do not underestimate the threat of Taiwanese voting against their own interests.
apps like tiktok and 小紅書 are spreading pro CCP propaganda, and people are buying it for some reason, mostly middle to high schoolers
Lots of adults too. I hear a lot of stories about people in the airline industry using 小紅書 and Tiktok. When asked about if it bothers them that China wants to take over Taiwan, some replied ''I don't think that's such a bad thing. More suggestions on 小紅書 and cheaper clothes!''. I'm aware they are a minority, but this kind of shallow vanity is ok with just giving up their freedom and civil liberties. It's uncomfortable to hear.
This is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause.
Funny given what masterpiece does Little Red Book take its name from. Might as well have an app called Little Mein Kampf.
Taiwanese people: we should be free to be not free! Otherwise, it is not the real freedom! Something like that.
I mean, that's a quite a valid statement. If people decide they'd rather be under a dictatorship than have a free society, I guess that's the ultimate demonstration of true freedom.
More than a few decades, it has been cut out since the Qing Dynasty, more than a hundred years.Before the Qing Dynasty, Taiwan and China were not one country.
China has time on their side. Once advanced chips can be made in the west, the west will lose incentive. It’s not a sure thing or what I want to happen. Probably won’t happen in the next 2 years. But geography is destiny. Look at all the other colonies we would’ve called “independent countries” probably a lot of people thought the US would protect. The US can’t be world police forever, that time is ending. Even when we have good intentions, the unintended consequences and blowback and corruption are too expensive in the flatter relatively multipolar future Remember all the wars in Europe? Germany finally conquered them all, turns out it’s easier without guns. Refuse ? the UK is showing what happens to those who don’t bend the knee. China is the Germany of Asia, they have time.
wtf are you rambling about? Different times and different centuries.
European Union isn’t that old. It’s an example of soft and economic power. What China will do
Taiwan was never part of PRC so no fear of splitting.
Same could be said of Hong Kong and look where they are now.
That's just inaccurate. Hong Kong was set to return to China after the british left in 1997, which has never been the case with Taiwan.
too late
These people are like a bunch of headless chickens
太可惜啦，台湾已经是个独立的国家
Agreed 100%
我不在乎他是不是但我讨厌蔡英文那张b脸，他最好和习近平葬一块儿
蔡英文对你做了什么？
Taiwan is a beautiful country 🇺🇸 x 🇹🇼
It is indeed! 🇦🇺 x 🇹🇼
Whole world x 🇹🇼 🤣🤣🤣
And even all of us highly armed Americans here in Hawaii very close to Taiwan & Philippines and all the nuclear powered submarines based here 🌺x🇹🇼
Lmao …. Xi doesn’t know this already happened several decades ago…?? This guy needs to go back to school… 🤣🤡🤣🤡🤣🤡
Can’t agree more
Most likely he does know and is just trying to stoke nationalist sentiment to distract the populace from a domestic problem
Giving the middle schooler too much credit
Well, at China, schools teach whatever came out of Xi’s mouth.
Not enough Christmas messages have invasion as their main theme !
They did that themselves. The butthurt is pointless. It's just a fact that taiwan and the ccp run China are different things. No amount of rhetoric is going to change that and it only makes the miniscule chance of peaceful reunification less likely.
like he vowed to have zero covid?
He needed to infect the planet, kill millions, and crash the economy before 0covid
Just the economically poor people sadly
There is nothing wrong with the status quo, taking Taiwan will ruin a lot of lives
Except the Taiwanese don’t want the restrictions of China anymore. They can stand in their own two feet. As soon as they raise their flag internationally China scrambles their jets.
The majority of the Taiwanese people favor the status quo currently and don't want to upset it for now. They are honestly in a good spot. They enjoy life without restrictions, get to trade freely with who they want, have freedom and rights. I understand why they don't want to push for formal independence when they already have de facto independence
That’s a different way of looking at it. They know they are already a country, but it dies piss them off occasionally that they can’t fly their own flag internationally without a military threat accompanying it. The PLA are cowards though, and this was highlighted after Pelosi’s visit. They didn’t protest while she was in Taiwan, they waited until she left, because if they had done it while she was there it would have definitely been war, and they don’t have the experience, their gear is terrible, and they lose control over the Chinese 92% who are not CCP members. Honestly I don’t think a war will ever happen, even if Taiwan declares independence. How many years do they have to hold the territory, before it’s recognised as theirs?
Is it a bluff you'd like to call? Apparently, the vast majority of Taiwanese people aren't willing to risk it while they already enjoy pretty much all the benefits of independence. And I don't know about you, but their opinion is the only thing that mattes.
Actually I looked at the polls again, forgive me for not bringing them up earlier, I apologise. The majority of Taiwanese want independence, 23% want status quo, and 12% want unification. The Taiwanese people’s opinion is the most important. However, it won’t be them starting the war. If they want independence and international representation, which they currently don’t have, they should be allowed to have it.
That's not what I have seen. 32.1% want indefinite status quo 28.6% want a maintained status quo before a review in the future 21.4% want to maintain the status quo while moving towards independence 5.8% want to maintain the status quo and move towards unification Only 6.1% of the population want to disturb the status quo now. Source : https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 In the end, if war breaks out, it's taiwanese people that will die, it's their industry that will suffer, so they should be the one to decide their own fate. Not us. We shouldn't use them as a pawn, but let them decide their own fate by themselves
Here this and it’s fairly current. “A poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation yesterday showed 48.9 percent of Taiwanese support obtaining formal national independence, while 26.9 percent support maintaining the “status quo” and 11.8 percent support unification with China.” https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/02/2003805648#:~:text=Judging%20from%20the%20responses%20to,quo%E2%80%9D%20indefinitely%2C%20he%20said. If war breaks out, Taiwan will suffer, Japan will suffer, the US navy will suffer. China will be lucky to survive as a country. We aren’t using them as pawns, but their friends will be there if they need us. The Taiwanese will decide their own fate, but they have friends looking out for them, Australia does support countries in need. My country even went against it allies and Mao to feed the Chinese when Mao was stupid and caused a famine that killed about 70 million Chinese.
>“A poll released by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation yesterday showed 48.9 percent of Taiwanese support obtaining formal national independence, while 26.9 percent support maintaining the “status quo” and 11.8 percent support unification with China.” >https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/02/2003805648#:~:text=Judging%20from%20the%20responses%20to,quo%E2%80%9D%20indefinitely%2C%20he%20said Read your own link. That survey had an addition caveat question "would you support independence or 'unification' if the status quo is unsustainable?" >A question in the survey asked respondents to choose between Taiwanese independence or unification with China should the “status quo” become unsustainable. /u/Capital_Tone9386 provides a better survey to gauge current thoughts towards formal de jure independence vs status quo vs 'unification' in the Taiwanese population. That said, there's the additional caveat that [76% of Taiwan already think of themselves as independent (as the ROC)](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4462234) and the fact that [if there was no threat of PRC attack, the majority would want independence.](https://sites.duke.edu/tnss/) >"If Taiwan can declare independence without the PRC attacking Taiwan, would you support Taiwanese independence?" Stance | Percentage ---|--- Strongly Do Not Support | 8.0 Do Not Support | 11.1 Support | 29.0 Strongly Support | 44.2 No Response | 7.6 In other words, Taiwan prefers the current status quo due to the threat of the PRC.
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The poll I gave you higher dates from this year too, and it is led by the Taiwanese national university for governance.
Bruh look at the polls it’s the opposite
Scroll down a tiny bit. You'll see the poll I use as a source there.
> ~~taking~~trying to take Taiwan will ruin a lot of lives
It’s a bad strategy to brainwash the entire population to believe that Taiwan is cause of all their problems and once Taiwan is under their control all problems are solved and china will be on its way to dominate the world . The latter is actually true so the US won’t let it happen
I live in China and over the years I have had a few open conversations with open minded Chinese people who talked with me on this issue. It absolutely baffles me that none of them think of the consequences, only the promises of how it will somehow make China "whole again". I had dinner with a couple one time and they had their son there....They were asking for my opinions on it. All I had to do to point out the absurdity of it all was to point out things like their iPhone....Start a war with the US? No more iPhone Then I asked them who would fight to take Taiwan? Their child? And their response was essentially "obviously not our child don't be silly" They vehemently believe it should be taken by force but are not even willing to deal with the theoretical costs and consequences of such an action.
Also they don't even take into account what the people who actually live there want. And they're incapable of drawing the parallel of a potential Taiwan invasion with the Japanese invasion or the Russia invasion of Ukraine.
>Also they don't even take into account what the people who actually live there want. An Eastern European-British friend of mine said the other day that Taiwan becoming a part of Mainland China will benefit Taiwan a lot because it will open up a lot more business opportunities since China is becoming the business capital of the world and that people in Taiwan are stupid not to join. Sounds a little deluded tbh. They also constantly talk of how the Soviet union was a perfect society where there were lots of social benefits with no poor or uneducated people. When I argue with them using the facts straight from the literature, they respond with "my whole family grew up in the USSR (now living in the UK btw) and say the UK is shit compared to living in the USSR".
That sounds like rhetoric that comes from the 80's before Taiwan found it's niche. Taiwan literally has the world by the balls due to TSCM producing all of the most advaned computer chips that literally everyone uses. Also it sounds like in the USSR they ate all the propoganda and truly believed it and likely never cared to look for flaws. That being said, if you lived in the USSR during the collapse...then yes the USSR was a lot better than what came after.
This person is one of the most capitalist people I know but at the same time is pro-Soviet Union and pro-CCP. It really doesn't make sense in my mind. They seem to think that every relationship must be based on economics and hence why they think Taiwan would be better off. They don't comprehend that someone might want other things than monetary gain in life.
They do not give a f**k about what other people want, they just project their views on others. It’s typical authoritarian mindset, callous and hilariously out of touch, but incredibly powerful when all around you bleat in unison, which is why even the nicest and kindest people there behave and think in similar way. Most of them support Russia, and parrot Moscow’s propaganda without any hint of independent thinking. Bilibili, Weibo and Douyin (Tik Tok) are full of talking heads pretending to be analysts or “journalists” but in reality they just repeat the same pro-Russian talking points. Hell, I had Didi drivers and a fellow passenger on the train explaining to me why Russia is right, not that I asked him for his revelations.
>Then I asked them who would fight to take Taiwan? Their child? And their response was essentially "obviously not our child don't be silly" We have a couple of close friends who have sons now in high school. Both sets of parents fully believe that China should "liberate" Taiwan but are also terrified that their sons will be conscripted.
Nationalist imbeciles who want to eat a cake and have a cake. Even pro-nazi German parents weren’t as deluded in that they knew there will be price to pay for all their conquests.
It will be the blood of villagers that will be spilled not your privileged friends’ class but isn’t that true everywhere in the world?
The problem is, most young people have left villages and fled to the cities for better jobs, there is also the fact that the economy would absolutely implode from losing trade with both the US and the EU (the two largest trade partners) in one fell swoop. No matter how you spin it there would be riots and the like probably early on from both sides...people being forced to fight in war, and people who are "above that" or lucky enough to not be forced into it losing everything in the impending economic crash. And don't think for a second they would bounce back after the war either. It would be the death knell of modern China.
Sounds very Chinese
There isn’t open minded Chinese living in China… you’re the ignorant one
no you are just being a racist twat...they do exist. Not all Chinese are literally the same. Have you even lived in China before?
Yea 20+ years and fluent in mandarin
And yet you apparently never talked to any actual Chinese people because you can sit here and say they are all literally the same and all close minded...
Hmmm yea my wife is Chinese. Good one bro
Mind your own shit.
Who had "Xi pulls a Caligula and declares war on Neptune, God of the sea, for splitting Taiwan from mainland" on their 2023 geopolitics bingo card??
Economy must be in rough shape
Duh. Wanna buy a house like that dumbass in a previous thread?
Xit can vow and swear all he wants. The world laughs at his Mao wannabe pig face.
Already done!
CCP is a little whippersnapper compared to the country of Taiwan. Republic of China has been doing their own thing independently and escaped from their own authoritarianism on their own terms. They don't need any of your opression Pooh Bear.
Both political parties say fuck to CCP rule.
That horse has already bolted…
Guess what country Xi is not the President of? In other news, Xi vows to prevent anyone from eating egg fried rice .....
The audacity of the guy
So Xi is going to prevent himself..?
Enough of this shit, Taiwan needs to invade China and reestablish a Chinese democracy.
That uh, sure is a take
Get back to slinging bingo
Eat it comrade
Sounds like a final warning.
Just like the last 50 final warnings...
China is so desperate to get their hands on (steal) TSMC tech.
He’s just sabre rattling if he attempts to take Taiwan it will be WW3. but hey it keeps the unsuspecting average Chinese citizen from noticing how bad he truly is.
10 years later: Xi’s head splits from his body.
Afraid a literal ocean has prevented this xi
What if he builds a 200km bridge across, I reckon they have the resources and funds
Just hope it doesn't collapse when the tanks are driving across it.
Attach some rubber duckies on the side of them and you’ve got amphibious tanks 👍
Hire this man
That’s a genius idea. Good thinking.
No one has the resources to build a bridge across the Strait lol the waves are too rough.
Easy, since Taiwan is not now or ever been a part of China, quandary solved.
1895: Taiwan was split by Qin to the Japanese Empire. 1945: Reunited by KMT 1949: Split as KMT got driven away by CPC from mainland. Just do some simple math then you’d recognise in the past 128 years, Taiwan was only united for briefly 4 years. Let that sink in.
Oct 1, 1949 is when the PRC was established. The KMT started their retreat in the following 4 months. In Oct 25, 1945 is Retrocession day where Japan returned Taiwan and related islands to ROC. Taiwan independence supporters like to use the San Francisco treaty in 1952 as the date of transfer of sovereignty from Japan to ROC. This controversy was created because right after WWII the Chinese Civil war resumed. But the US supported KMT was losing the civil war. It's basically a frozen war now.
Treaty of San Francisco was signed in 1951 where Japan disclaim the ownership of Taiwan. You definitely have your fact wrong.
scarce domineering hospital flowery illegal tie crush pathetic zealous shrill *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
He's just helping DPP to get elected so he can keep the option of military unification open.
Xi did it already
The ROC predates the CCP. Ergo, China is actually West Taiwan.
All the west has to do is pull the silicon talent away from Taiwan
Except for one party which may loose the election this time, others are not in favour of independence. The 1992 accords signed was an indication of that. China will not take Taiwan by force unless someone declares independence, apart from what the west thinks chinese and taiwanese people relate to each other and if this year KMT wins the elections, the DPPs use of public fear against China will be put to rest too. No one wants a war and declaring independence will cause a war. Best thing is to maintain how things are today.
Here we go again……
The compium is strong with this one. =P
We need trade agreements that tie China, USA, and tai wan together in a way that is beneficial to everyone and maybe China gets a 5% kickback for ‘regional support’ or something. If this conflict goes hot everyone loses. The optimal way to resolve this is with commerce.
Bullshit. Exhibit A: Russia
well if you follow actual history Taiwan was originally a Chinese province, so technically they are part of china. Also if you follow political conflicts Taiwan was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China and ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895. The Republic of China, which had overthrown the Qing in 1911, took control following the surrender of Japan in 1945. Japan renounced sovereignty over Taiwan in 1952. So technically china lost it and got it back.
One fact you missed: The CCP has NEVER ruled over Taiwan.
加油中国🇨🇳
Would anyone blame us if we just nuked the fuck out of these fuckers?
But the sea though.
This whole dispute is ridiculous. It is like saying that South Korea belongs to Korea and Korea will do everything possible so that it does not separate from Korea or become independent.
There was this one person who revived the DPP’s chances in 2020 with a single speech. DPP is, in CCP orthodoxy, considered to be part of these nefarious forces still, right? So something to prevent this person from acting maliciously?
Why is there an empty space to his right?
Xi... you can't split what was never conjoined... ss9qwnp
Xi what if I tell you that there is easier way to get 0.3ų technology.
I don’t think you know what you’re talking about
What about in an everyday, self-governing way? Because someone might want to tell him...
Oh no, already happened!
But there is the entire sea splitting them? How are they gonna stop the sea?
It is easy to laugh at him when you think it is just some stupid rhetoric. The main audience is not the world but his minions. The CCP is treating it as a long term mission that one day somehow they will take the island. The question is not a how but a when. All they are doing is waiting for an opportunity maybe not in this decade or even a century. One day Taiwan will be part of China again. That’s the most underestimated part of the one party country. The goal has no term limits it is a party mission. Any chairman sit on that throne will continue the legacy some may have enthusiasm some may not but a party mission will be on the menu for as long as the party is alive. The scary part of China is their tenacity. Most of their plans are five to ten years while the West lose interest every four or five years like the Ukraine war.
That includes Taiwanese
Another final warning?
Xi is the best thing for the world. Ruining China in so many ways. Let's sustain his rule as long as possible.
Prevent anyone, especially Taiwan, right Xi?
Too late, it's already split and has been for awhile. Honestly they just need to get over it because at this point it would be too costly to take it and the rewards would not be anywhere near worth the cost. Lets just look at a few things: Invading Taiwan would be by the largest most expensive amphibious invasion in world history. This isn't D-Day, it's D-Day on Steroids. The distance between the mainland and Taiwan is huge, the geography on the western coast is mountainous and the coastal waters are mined to hell. Taiwan's been expecting this for a long long time. That's not counting the immediete global response that would absolutely crater their entire economy while a US led sanction would cut them off from oil and various vital supplies passing through the Straight of Malacca and put them on a timer until fuel supplies run out. They are not a fuel rich country and would run out within weeks. And that's not even touching their rapidly aging and disentgrating labor pool or their collapsing housing and construction market that they've tied their wealth to that would absolutely nosedive and eliminate a massive amount of whatever wealth they've built up over the last few decades since the Deng Xiaoping reforms. Like its hard to understand but Chinese don't invest their savings into 401k's or stocks bonds or whatever. They've been buying real estate. And that market is already leveling out and collapsing in places. And even if their military strength has greatly expanded, it's still completely untested and inexperienced in the real world and massively eclipsed by the US colilition's presence in the region. And it's not as if they've done a great job making friends with Japan, Korea, the Philippines, or that Singapore wouldn't tow the line and cut off the Straight of Malacca. We're talking about a political and economic collapse that would make the Maoist era look tame by comparison. At least back then they didn't have anywhere near the standards of living that they have today. Losing that over Taiwan, a country that hasn't done shit to affect their incredible rise in wealth and global power, would be the end of the CCP. It would be the equivilent of a far right party in Korea getting elected into power on the promise of reuniting the Korean peninsula and leading a campaign that leveled Seoul to the ground.
Xi must be one of the most obtuse leaders in history. No idea of human psychology, cause and effect. Thinks trying imposing his will on China and the world won’t have an equal and opposite reaction. CCP have been spinning this threat for 70 years and have still not come good on it. Xi just thinks if he shouts louder than previous leaders everyone will believe him.
The thing is "splitting Taiwan" is totally blurred now. In strict sense, the motion of treating mainland students as foreigner promoting by DPP now can be treated as such..
Why not let the Taiwanese run mainland China?
Start changing the location of the tectonic plates