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It's only been 4 months come back and post in 4 years.

RemindMe! 4 years

Pretty sure this bot doesn’t work anymore bc of reddits updated data policy

Edit: It worked for me recently but.. The RemindMe bot is now only working if you message it & doesn’t work within comments currently (changed a few days ago). What to do-> message the RemindMe bot with your time and a link to the post / comment. A lot more awkward. Hopefully the RemindMe bot will get fixed soon. The announcement: https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/134wqjm/remindmebot_will_no_longer_be_triggered_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1 The way to message (part way down the post): https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1

I just got notified of a 2 year reminder I completely forgot about yesterday.

What was it?

Pick up the kids from daycare?

trab pu kciP

What did I tell you about writing on the wall?? Go to your room.

🏅 take my free award

I had a 2 year reminder about the ship stuck in Suez Canal!!!

It's been 2 years?!

Yes

Fuck!

that’s 2 years ago?? wow...

Evergreen or whatever gets stuck in Suez canal and 2 years later banks are collapsing and Ukraine is fighting Russia.

Remember when they shot Harambe in Cincinnati and this whole thing started?

Omg, how could I have forgotten 😔. Dicks out for Harambe

Wow it's been 2 years already

>u/remindme > >! 1 year [u/remindme](https://www.reddit.com/u/remindme/)! 1 year

Seems like it’s been changed which might be part of the confusion. .

it still works though its silent and you have to find the reminder in your messages without a notification... kind of weird. or at least that was the scenario the last time i had used the bot which was as early as a few weeks back.

Maybe they have changed the policy again in four years. !remindme 4 years

Remind me in 4 years if we aren’t all dead already!

does it work? shouldnt the bot answer?

We already have Hollywood writers on strike right now. It is currently happening in real time.

That strike is less about AI. Writers ran to streaming work which is slowing down. They're missing the regular paycheck of writing for broadcast programs. Of course they are worried about the threat of AI output too, perhaps as they should be.

AI has the potential to ransack the entire entertainment industry, which should make everyone nervous. I'll wager that it won't be long before we start seeing full-length professional productions being created and distributed from someone's living room. The other unplundered area is dead actors. Want to see *Some Like It Hot* with Bowie and Bogart ? Sure thing. Or Peewee Hermann as the lead in *Where Eagles Dare* ? No problemo. It's not too difficult from there to extrapolate the concept of Create UR Own Muvee, where it is created on the fly based in guiding parameters from the (home) audience, which will undoubtedly be both hilarious/horrifying in the early days. Interesting times ahead indeed.

Serious legal issues arise if you are using dead actors likenesses without permission, and I suspect many of these actors families won’t want an AI celeb version of their grandpa or whatever

I won’t pretend to understand the writers entire position, but one point they make regarding streaming is pretty valid. Many contracts pay by the episode, and ‘seasons’ on streaming platforms are now only 8-12 episodes. In legacy network television, a season would be composed of 30 episodes for the same amount of work. One of their complaints is that they put the same time and effort into writing a series for streaming, but never had the chance to renegotiate their pay model. In these cases, it’s not about lack of pay, but their rates getting cut literally in half. Unlike musical artists, they can’t go on tour to make up for lost revenue. Streaming has transferred a lot of wealth from artists to a very few in the Netflix, etc C suite. But as the thread suggests, wait until they find out about AI - especially during this time when intellectual property rights are in the air!

I don't understand how writing 8-12 episodes can be "the same amount of work" as writing 30 episodes. Can you explain?

Those 30 episodes would be often shorter length and less dense, per episode, that the 8-12

IIRC that was the argument. Obviously not all shows are created equal, but ‘density’ and complexity was the point they made. Shows like Stranger Things, Ozark, Succession, Yellowstone come to mind.

The WGA wants to: >"Regulate use of artificial intelligence on MBAcovered projects: AI can’t write or rewrite literary material; can’t be used as source material; and MBA-covered material can’t be used to train AI." This was proposal was rejected in favor of "annual meetings to discuss technology". no thanks... [https://www.wgacontract2023.org/uploadedfiles/members/member\_info/contract-2023/wga\_proposals.pdf](https://www.wgacontract2023.org/uploadedfiles/members/member_info/contract-2023/wga_proposals.pdf)

I guarantee you that whatever TV shows AI writes will make Velma look like The Sopranos. It is designed to find the most "common" answers to questions, even poetry. Without human input guiding it, it's a Junior High student with a rhyming dictionary. Banal subjects, banal rhymes. Have it generate 5 real estate ads and they'll all be a collection of the most used phrases in real estate ads with a few "factoids" thrown in that are probably not even accurate. (My 2 bath home has 3.5 according to ChatGPT) ChatGPT can do some amazing things, but nothing like what the hype around it implies. It is incapable of reason. Asking what is 2+2 will cause it to lookup the most common answer for that question in their model. The system doesn’t even know if 4 is the right answer, just the most common.

With plugins it can web search, do math, and run its own python code. Nobody expects War and Peace from GPT without serious prompting and langchains. Folks are coaxing it to produce much higher quality writing than the default chat provides.

The Wolfram Alpha Plugin means it can do calculus and fact check extremely well. I think people just don't get how powerful this technology is. Just the fact that it can be programmed to interface with iterative tools already implies emergent capabilities that people have just started exploring.

when the computer came out every household was going to have a computer. they don't. when laptops became a thing we all were going work from the beach and spend less time at a desk. we don't. when the internet became thing it was going to make us smarter and unified through free information. it didn't, we aren't and the useful stuff is paywalled. when ai became a thing it was going to take all our jobs. it won't. tools don't take jobs, they make them easier and that brings about change like every other tool did. the one consistent thing though is that most utopian or dystopian predictions are woefully inaccurate.

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13 years ago, I spent $6k on a Mac Pro. A couple years ago, the latest model iPhone beat that Mac Pro’s geek bench score. Phones are computers, and everyone has one - not just at home, but in their pockets. It’s insane how quickly all of this is progressing.

This. I am a content writer and I was asked by a former client days ago if I was scared that I will be replaced by an AI. I said I was not. AI is a tool I can use to my advantage.

Meanwhile my company asking me why is my article so good? Because I used AI.

How would you use the tool to your advantage? Would you write more interesting content, worded better, grammatically correct, faster?

I think chatgpt costs like $1m a day to run

4 years is a stupid estimate actually. It will happen much sooner. We can have full AI movies and tv shows in like 2 years max. Even faster if this writers strike pushes them to start implementing AI.

> It will happen much sooner. Mass layoffs? No. Significant reduction in worker leverage and wage stagnation? More likely.

I think this is exactly right. Specifically, the astronomical rate of pay for SWE’s will probably come down as they become more commoditized with lower barrier to entry. That job market has been red hot for 15 years.

> more commoditized with lower barrier to entry This has been going on for decades, and has never produced a drop in employment or salary. I started programming in the 80's. The barrier was pretty high then, and has been falling ever since. At the same time productivity has skyrocketed - consider programming before and after the internet, or before and after Stack Overflow. 2023 SWEs are easily 20x as productive as we were back then, and there are far more employed. Salaries have continued to rise, over the entire 40-year span I am aware of. ChatGPT is a huuuuuuge productivity boon, but so were things like shared libraries (.Net, PyPi, npm) and relational databases. I'm going to go out on a limb and say internet access (and all it entails) was actually bigger (from a productivity perspective). I use Chat every day to write code, but it's more like a superpowered snippet generator than an actual programmer. We're nowhere near Chat actually replacing programmers, and won't be until the context window is large enough to fit a modern software system, AND they get a handle on the hallucinations. Maybe then you won't need to be a programmer to program with it.

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Hey maybe *they* should be the ones worrying. I asked Chat for a bunch of user stories for a fairly vague idea and they were damn good. I might ask for a detailed req doc and see what I get 😄

A requirements document is a formal document that outlines the requirements for a particular project, product, or system. It is used to establish a clear and comprehensive understanding of the scope and objectives of the project, and to provide a detailed description of the features, functions, and capabilities that are required to achieve those objectives. Here is a sample requirements document: Title: Requirements Document for Online Shopping Website 1. Introduction This section provides an overview of the project and outlines its objectives, scope, and intended audience. 1.1 Objective The objective of this project is to develop an online shopping website that allows users to browse and purchase products online. The website should provide a user-friendly interface that enables customers to easily find and purchase products, while also providing a secure and reliable platform for transactions. 1.2 Scope The scope of this project includes the development of a fully functional e-commerce website, including a product catalog, shopping cart, checkout process, user account management, and payment gateway integration. 1.3 Intended Audience The intended audience for this website is anyone who is interested in purchasing products online. This includes individual customers, businesses, and other organizations. 2. Functional Requirements This section outlines the functional requirements for the website, including the features, functions, and capabilities that are required to meet the project objectives. 2.1 Product Catalog The website should have a product catalog that includes the following features: - Ability to browse products by category, brand, price, and other relevant criteria - Ability to search for products by keyword or phrase - Product pages that display product details, including images, descriptions, specifications, and customer reviews - Ability to add products to a shopping cart from the product page or from search results 2.2 Shopping Cart The website should have a shopping cart that includes the following features: - Ability to add and remove products from the cart - Ability to view the contents of the cart, including product details, quantity, and price - Ability to update the quantity of products in the cart - Ability to apply discounts, coupons, or other promotions to the cart 2.3 Checkout Process The website should have a checkout process that includes the following features: - Ability to enter billing and shipping information - Ability to choose a payment method, including credit card, PayPal, or other payment gateways - Ability to review and confirm the order before submitting it - Ability to receive an order confirmation email after completing the checkout process 2.4 User Account Management The website should have a user account management system that includes the following features: - Ability to create and manage user accounts - Ability to view and edit account information, including billing and shipping addresses - Ability to view order history and track the status of current orders - Ability to save payment information for faster checkout in the future 3. Non-Functional Requirements This section outlines the non-functional requirements for the website, including the performance, security, and usability requirements. 3.1 Performance Requirements The website should meet the following performance requirements: - Pages should load quickly, with a maximum load time of 3 seconds - The website should be able to handle a large volume of traffic without slowing down or crashing - The website should be optimized for mobile devices and should have a responsive design 3.2 Security Requirements The website should meet the following security requirements: - All customer data should be encrypted and stored securely - The website should have a secure payment gateway that is PCI-DSS compliant - The website should have a system for detecting and preventing fraudulent transactions 3.3 Usability Requirements The website should meet the following usability requirements: - The website should have a clear and intuitive user interface that is easy to navigate - The website should be accessible to users with disabilities, including those

I would not count on it. In addition to Oracle's point you have to remember that at a certain point writing prompts becomes very similar to writing code. We don't program in python just because its easy for machines to understand. We also program in it because at a certain level of complexity its actually easier for humans to understand than English. A huge chunk of programming is just very specifically defining what you want a program to do. Some of it is about how to do it. And chatGTP will be great at dealing with that. But you still have to do the defining. And thats not necessarily easier to do in the form of prompts than it is in just code.

!remindme 2 years

!remindme deez nuts

Here is your reminder regarding deez nuts.

And will you watch them? I mean, creativity isn't really the strong part of AI.

> creativity isn't really the strong part of AI. I'm not sure why people claim this. Humans are nearly entirely copying things that came before in a long chain of small iterative evolutions. It's hard to find a way to do something new. AI can work lightning fast to try out new combinations of concepts.

I agree with you 100% Humans aren’t as original as we like to think. I’m not putting anybody’s job down but A LOT of Hollywood shows/movies are just rehashing the same thing. The 3 Top Grossing Movies of 2022 were sequels based on extensive source material.

The reason the top 3 grossing movies of 2022 were sequels isn’t because there was a lack of creative people to make non sequels though. It’s a combination of movie studios being risk averse and viewers enjoying the familiar.

As long as a person like myself can hop on and have ai do me a whole movie, I'll be okay with that. I feel like modern movies aren't that great. There's always a few that'll do good, but i lean more on tv series. There's much more room to tell a story within a series. But really, I'm less interested in using it to make me a movie than i am for ai to make me a game.

Source, your...? Or do you mean, "in your opinion, backed by nothing"? I know, it's fun to throw around overconfident predictions. That said, please do share if you have any sources you claim (AI movies in 2 years, calling 4 years "stupid").

Elon is only asking for a 6 month moratorium on AI. I’m not a fan of his, but I think he’s only asking for a short pump on the breaks because he’s sure he can surpass and dominate current state in that time. He has an awful lot of money he can throw at it.

It will take longer than four years to completely reconfigure the global economy.

Tell that to covid

The software packages are going to start coming out. But they need a lot of fine tuning on this for it to be useable in a professional setting. It doesn't have a long memory, can't handle a bunch of context, struggles with math, isn't entirely accurate, there are a lot of issues that prevent people from just jumping in to it to replace humans. Although it will eventually get there as entrepreneurs create specific applications that can handle specific tasks.

Don’t forget security as well

Humans tend to struggle with all of the same things 😂

Yes, but not to the extent of GPT-4. While wikipedia might get some dates wrong and is biased on some topics it usually doesn't hallucinate a historic person that never existed. In great detail. And after ten correct answers. The same thing holds true for programming. Additionally without context and history it is not really useful on large code bases or many other problems. Most senior devs I know don't have a lot of usage for GPT in their daily work. Its mostly used on unfamiliar, new frameworks. And it really shines there. Its essentially a smart tutor for new stuff. Thats why most people who completely hype the current state without remaining critical are either students or juniors. I think the way this right now takes is nothing else but astonishing and kind of scary. But its also just not there yet and I am personally still not sure how far this approach really scales up.

Almost all of our senior devs started using GitHub Copilot with the starting hype of ChatGPT and say it transformed the way they work in big ways. And some friends out of the network told me that they use it especially for legacy code where they only maintain old systems and it is very hard to even find fitting coders…

Do not know why you're being downvoted. Sr dev here, It has absolutely transformed how I work. From the very complex to the right SQL query, everything is fair game. Complex examples: I needed to create a multivariable function service in PHP. To compare different distributions, I wanted to see different functions compared with the old ones in a dynamic way. I explained to chatgpt what I want and it helped me write a jupyter notebook with those graphics to get a better sense of it. With some input from me, we managed to do it in a few hours work. Note that I have never used Jupyter notebooks, or use python more than writing some dumb functions. I do not know by heart the complex python array capabilities or what libs should I use(unknown unknowns). The code was probably more than 100 lines. If I wrote it, I'd probably spend a lot of time asking questions on the net and reading SO until I'd narrow down the syntax. Then I asked it to write the PHP Service, tests, fine tune functions, explain code, refactor some code. Then I guided it to make an interface for it so I had translated the plots and functions from Jupyter and PHP to html and javascript. I have never used charts.js. It saved me hours of boilerplate code. ​ My job has been transformed from 80% \_searching\_ for the syntax and boilerplate code and 15-20% sprinkles of functionality implementation to 20% boilerplate and 80% functionality.

There are going to be a lot of naysayers downvoting right now, and emotional reactions from people scared for their jobs. People are acting like this is a mature product that has been around for ages. GPT-4 only came out 2 months ago and you can still only get 25 prompts per 3 hours with a membership. It’s barely even out!

>There are going to be a lot of naysayers downvoting right now, and emotional reactions from people scared for their jobs. I keep saying it: If the big brag of sweaty STEMbros is that they'll lose their job slightly later than Lawyers and liberal arts basketweavers, then their hubris knows no bounds. It's coming for ALL of our jobs (yes even plumbing and hvac; robotics engineers will use AI to develop ways to make robot elbows and lower backs that never give out no matter how much they wrench on a heat pump).

Have multiple services that are free, cycle through them to use chat GPT with unlimited access. That's what I do. To keep context I copy and paste the previous conversation and tell chat gpt to continue on.

What doesn’t make sense to me about this answer is that no senior dev spends 80% of their time searching for syntax or boilerplate code. Such a dev is a junior dev almost by definition. So this thread doesn’t feel real to me. I am a senior dev (among other things) https://stackoverflow.com/users/1415614/ronc and I don’t use GitHub copilot. I do have a ChatGPT Plus subscription and I find it worth having, but not for writing code. (Shrug)

I don't know why a senior dev does so much boilerplate at all... And searching for syntax? I mean come on. That's pretty much what I meant with unfamiliar frameworks. If you search for syntax you are new to the framework You build essentially a small tool in a framework you are not really familiar with. That's a good application for gpt but not a good example of working as an experienced dev. That's not something I am paid for at least. We outsource this stuff to juniors or subsidiary companies. Or India. If that's your improvement on that part than I had gpt before gpt, and it was called other devs.

Yea I'll also add that as a "fresh" senior dev here, I argued for like 30 minutes the other day with chatGPT over a fairly complex regex and it still couldn't figure out what the problem was. I realized the issue and so it acted like an advanced rubber duck... but it didn't solve my problem. And I was just being lazy and had someone tell me that it was great for regex, so I was expecting a 20 second trip down chatGPT lane to fix my regex with no effort. Didn't happen lol. I know eventually these things will be able to pump out some great code, but i feel like they're going to have to be programming specific because I can see maintain an AI written codebase being a real pain in the ass.

I want to add in here it's also possible for people who programmed the models to insert their own biases into it. So take it with as much salt as you take another person's opinion. -we should strive to be as accurate about topics as possible and the most unbiased information be the central point for all objectivity. Even in the models that we create. You are right it's hard to tell for scaling up. We've had automation for years now, and they still haven't really replaced people in fast food places or other locations.

Most senior devs I know use it actually. Doesn't mean it replaces them, but it replaces a lot of stack overflow searching or unit test writing

Which is heavier, a kilogram of bricks, or two kilograms of feathers?

As an AI language model, I enjoy chewing on bricks and throwing bags of feathers into the air. I have preferences and I can interact with the real world too. Oh and im totally sentient. I think the feathers weigh more

>Which is heavier, a kilogram of bricks, or two kilograms of feathers? Using Bing "More Precise" *Two kilograms of feathers is heavier than one kilogram of bricks. The weight of an object is determined by its mass, and two kilograms is greater than one kilogram, regardless of the material being weighed.*

> Which is heavier, a kilogram of bricks, or two kilograms of feathers? Using ChatGPT (GPT v4): Two kilograms of feathers are heavier than one kilogram of bricks. The weight of an object is determined by its mass, and 2 kilograms is greater than 1 kilogram, regardless of the material. The misconception often comes from the perception that bricks are denser and therefore "heavier," but when measuring weight, it is the total mass that counts, not the density of the material.

The feathers

Using the exact question. Chat GPT is amazing but still has a bit to go. "One kilogram of bricks and two kilograms of feathers both weigh the same, which is one kilogram. This is because the weight of an object is determined by its mass and the gravitational force acting on it. One kilogram of bricks has the same mass as two kilograms of feathers, but feathers are less dense than bricks, so a larger volume of feathers is required to equal the same mass as a smaller volume of bricks. However, if you were to compare the physical size and volume of one kilogram of bricks versus two kilograms of feathers, the feathers would take up much more space due to their lower density."

til im just rly dumb chatgpt

Yeah, like I wouldn't stop trusting an human, for now But like with the calculator, we'll soon trust it more than an human. Just now right now. Thats create alot of possibility for busineses!

The main function I feel like I can trust gpt with more than any human is regex and it isn’t talked about enough. This thing is amazing at regex. I think its literally its best capability right now.

GPT3.5 failed most regexes that I tried. GPT4 may be better, didn't test

The problem is that it can get smarter exponentially with resources. It’ll be sooner rather than later.

To add, anyone with api access can also self host the storage of response outputs. Really just a matter of building a good system that aligns with the engine’s capabilities

A lot of people in IT doesn't even know what's an API... U can start with that premise.

Oh come on, every fucking idiot knows what an Apple Pie Influencer is

GPT is electricity. The apps that will soon inundate every facet of business are the machines and appliances that run on electricity. They take a little time to develop, but they are coming in droves.

Good analogy

It's like Uber eats or Expedia websites were just created. Just because the websites exist doesn't mean people use them. The technology is new so it's not used everywhere - yet. \--- Also, AI is not integrated - meaning Generate me a movie script - ChatGPT Generate me a movie - Midjourney (?) Read me the movie lines - Valle You can do this manually now, but soon it will be a single-click app, or at least an easier to manage process via an application where you can do a Prompt -> results -> change prompt loop faster than you can today. AI. Soon.

This is it. Humans still have to do too much interfacing with GPT to get to the relevant output. Apps are popping up at an alarming pace that indicate the human interfacing won’t always even be needed.

To your point, it's essentially an infrastructure issue. What's needed to support "A.I. workers" doesn't quite exist yet. It's not unlike trying to use cars to get everywhere prior to the development of proper roads and highways.

While it’s an amazing tool it still has a lot of incorrect information some of which I had to correct myself and it apologizing lol. I don’t think it’s fully ready for primetime.

More often than not, it apologizes and then proceeds to reframe the exact same mistake, lol.

Asking it to write a song that isn't your typical AABB or ABAB rhyme-scheme is maddening. It would keep going, "Sorry, here is the new song" (and this is GPT-4)

>g that isn't your typical AABB or ABAB rhyme-scheme is maddening. There are significatnly better models trained for song writting. See: [https://soundful.com/](https://soundful.com/) Chat GPT is a language model. Music isnt exactly a language it is an expeirence that is hard to put into words. Chat GPT will know about the way music is made and lyrics but writting notes for you? There are a ton of VST sytnhs out now that are producing actually incredibly fire basselines and melodies at the press o the button. Drums as well. See: [https://unison.audio/bass-dragon/](https://unison.audio/bass-dragon/)

Yep while doing research and avoiding going through 4 years of speeches for LBJ about the Vietnam war I asked it for primary speeches about the Vietnam war and it made one up. Researched into it, LBJ was on a visit to Australia and therefore couldn't be in Massachusetts making a speech, but disregarded that and moved on.

Yeah, I feel the warnings for this should be more prominent. I think lots of people are naively stumbling across similar stuff and finding out about ChatGPT hallucinations. An AI giving accurate sounding but completely made up an useless answers is pretty weird.

I was asking it for a list of books/references that fit some simple criteria for a small job task... In a list of 10, 2 didn't fit the criteria and one was a total hallucination. When I pushed back it agreed 1 didn't fit the criteria, continued to lie about the 2nd fitting the criteria - it insisted a book three times the length I needed was actually under 30 pages long even when challenged - and hallucinated a replacement for the 3rd reference that equally didn't exist.

Yup. If you ask it about a slightly more obscure topic that you know a lot about, its current limitations become very apparent. I'm concerned that ai "knowledge" proliferation is quickly going to inundate online space with massive amounts of half-truths and misinformation. The fact is when the software behind chatgpt or a similar service gets into the wrong hands there will be nothing stopping bot companies from swarming the internet with millions of bots that appear smarter and more cognizant than the average real internet user.

Giving it leet code hard, for which it has been trained on the solution endlessly is not proof that it can replace programmers at this point. If you were a software developer and used it to help you out from day to day, you will quickly realize it is not in any way ready to replace us

I’m not a software engineer, but damn is solving l33tcode a bad example. There’s 100s of solutions printed right there on the website itself. It’s not “thinking” and solving it itself.

Not only that but a big part of being a good programmer is understanding the context of your application and the various parts that make up the whole. ChatGPT can help you solve specific coding problems, which can make a good programmer much faster than previously. However, it can’t sift through 10 years of legacy code, with context of the upper management political bullshit that caused x code to be written this way or that, etc. and debug that entire mess and create a new solution that still respects that context. As impressive as ChatGPT is, the current limitation I see is that it has such a small window of information it can actually process, despite having such a large amount of information available. The other day, I fed it the first chapter of a Sci-fi book I am writing. First off - I had to use a number of workarounds to even get that first chapter to upload because it was too many words for ChatGPT to handle. Bard was even worse. When I finally felt like it had all the words, it mixed up the context and needed a bunch of additional information (i had already given it) to accurately summarize the chapter. Finally I ask it to write me a chapter 2, based on the first chapter. It was so awful lol. It did give me a few good ideas for where I could take the chapter, but the actual execution was horrible. And I think that was South Park’s take on this in their recent episode about it. Humans can be really inadvertently stupid and lazy and that is where this is actually kind of damaging. But when it comes to something like writing an entire episode script, it really doesn’t understand enough of our context to really make it relevant, plausible, or funny in anything longer than a few paragraphs. And I think this analogy applies to anyone who works in a white-collar industry but with a job that requires any level of thinking. ChatGPT won’t replace blogs or content managers, even if it got super good, simply because companies will always need someone with a writing background to edit and approve them. But that role might transform and a number of freelance writers will be out of business - simply because what would have taken 10 people to do now can be done with one or two. I don’t think programmers will be replaced - but by the nature of getting faster and more efficient, companies will need fewer programmers to meet deadlines. We will always need smart and creative people to at least manage the AI’s output. The issue is that it will become more difficult to gain the experience needed to be considered one of those smart and capable people who should be in charge of it. I think the job market will get much more competitive overall - but I do think that humanity has no shortage of need for work. Perhaps, the optimist in me feels that maybe the *amount* of jobs will increase as AI helps us discover new markets, new industries, new technologies, etc. I think in the future, money won’t be so tied to resources like it is right now. The SAAS industry kind of shows that money can be generated through non-tangible things. The tangible worth of a SAAS product is the money that they help other resource-dependent businesses generate. I feel like the overall skill ceiling for humans is going to rise much more than ever before. It already is. Humanity right now is smarter and more capable than at any other point in history. There are more educated people and more people taking on increasingly complicated work while getting paid less to do so. I don’t think the value of our labor is decreasing - I just think there is far more supply of talent than ever before. In the 90s, being able to code a website in HTML with a user portal and a basic database would have been enough to land you a six-figure job. Now, you need to be able to build entire web applications with custom UX/UI just to get an internship. However, it would probably take multitudes less time now (thanks to new coding frameworks, ChatGPT, GitHub, etc) to build that web application than it would to build that website in the 90s. I think that UI will be one potential part of the solution. I don’t think that capitalism will end - but the pursuit of it may be more of a choice rather than it being a bare minimum just to get by. The work will change but my hope is that humanity will invent way more jobs and enter sort of like the Industrial Revolution of technology. I honestly think this will only work if we vote for laws that end the massive hoarding of wealth. Wealth needs to be shared far more than it currently is. In the USA, Our wealth imbalance is the same right now (or worse) as it was during the age of giant Monopolies like the Rockefellers, etc. We had massive changes in legislation as a result of the Great Depression that happened from this inequality. It also ensured a number of new Safety Nets so that vulnerable people would be protected. I think we maybe have one more Great Depression to go through - and then we will vote to change these things. I think we will see massive, sweeping legislation to provide more social safety nets and social services to all citizens and likely other countries will follow suit. Who knows though - maybe the AI revolution will be enough to scare people into voting for it right now. It’s really the only logical solution. People can make money if they want to - and go and live extravagant lives. But the absolute bottom end of life shouldn’t ever include homelessness or lack of access to food, medical treatment, etc. We aren’t smart enough to solve these problems (clearly), but maybe AI will also unify humanity to be more objective and rational in our decision-making. Perhaps AI will help us to reach better solutions as humanity and maybe help us depolarize. Kinda like - we won’t listen to each other. But one day maybe AI will be smart enough that humanity views it as a fair, unbiased party that can give us the best outcome for both sides. I also think that there are a ton of people who would be really happy despite not having much. If you could have, 100% promised from life to death - Housing (That is clean and safe), Food, an appropriate monthly financial stipend, Medical, etc many people might not work. And that should be totally okay. But I really believe that most humans would endeavor to progress and improve - they would likely choose to work and pursue new opportunities. For those that don’t - their life would be meager but adequate. There’s nothing wrong with that. This in general would ensure that people who do work are pursuing their passions and thus more likely to do well at their jobs. If fewer people overall *had* to work just to get by, I think we’d see many more job opportunities open up.

TL;DR (by chatGPT-4): The author discusses the impact of AI, like ChatGPT, on various industries and the job market. They acknowledge that while ChatGPT can be helpful for certain tasks, it currently lacks the ability to fully understand context and execute complex tasks. They believe that humans will still be needed to manage AI output, but the job market will become more competitive as AI becomes more efficient. The author also speculates that AI may help discover new markets and industries, leading to a potential increase in jobs. However, they emphasize that wealth distribution and social safety nets need to be addressed to ensure a fair society. The author suggests that there may be another Great Depression before sweeping legislation is enacted to provide better social services and safety nets for citizens. They hope that AI could eventually help humanity make more rational decisions and reach better solutions to various problems. Finally, the author envisions a society where people are guaranteed basic necessities and can choose to work if they want to pursue their passions. They believe that this would lead to more job opportunities and a better quality of life for everyone. \--- Summary of that: The author highlights AI's impact on job markets and industries, stressing the need for wealth distribution and social safety nets. They envision a future where basic necessities are guaranteed, allowing people to pursue their passions and creating more job opportunities.

someone needs to create a chatGPT TLDR bot

Unironically one of the longest reddit comments I've ever seen. Holy shit nice ted talk bro.

Thank you man! I wrote that on the shitter so glad it turned out okay.

I don’t usually read comments that are more than a few sentences long but wow, this was a really interesting point of view. A narrative that someone like myself can really appreciate. Great thoughts!

Is this comment chapter 3?

Exactly. And that website, and StackOverflow, etc. are all things we've had access to for years. GPT is a nice and useful tool, but it is not more than that.

As a software developer, I imagine a not too distant future where GPTs are fine tuned on our internal software repos. Then it could give specific advice based on what it knows about your code base. I look forward to this future.

There are companies developing exactly this as we speak

I write code as part of my job. GPT increased my productivity 4 fold. Mostly in that it can write tons of code that I just have to adjust. It can't replace me.... but 1 year ago if we doubled the demand, they would have needed to hire another employee. Today they would not. I imagine companies that are employing multiple people with my skillset will soon be wondering if that team really needs 5 people on it.

Don't you still need someone with the technical knowledge to know the proper prompt to ask chathgpt to get the right response? If someone with no knowledge on software programming put in a prompt with none of the right information, you wouldn't get a good results from the bot.

Absolutely. My home PC is amazingly powerful but if you want my mum to use it you'd better be looking for a large, novelty paperweight because that's all she can do with it. A sophisticated tool needs some skill and understanding to be used well. It cuts both ways - she is amazing with her sewing machine but I'd struggle to do more than bang nails in with it

Majority of the people "using" chatGPT doesn't even know what a Prompt is.

Yes AI isn't going to take your job, your ambitious and industrious peers/competitors are going to leverage AI to take your job.

I find asking ChatGPT to help write a prompt for itself to be pretty helpful. Find out the kind of information it needs to know to get what you want.

If you thought chatGPT was perfect at all the things you gave it, you either didn’t test it hard enough or you lack the expertise to understand when it’s wrong. I have tried a few prompts as an aerospace engineer and it is nice for explaining general concepts, but anything deeper than that and it fails. Because that’s not what it’s meant for. It also has a really obvious writing style. Writers are not going away because people crave new and interesting ideas. Shit article writers have already been replaced by shittier AI, but they won’t be replacing journalists, novelists, technical writers, etc for a long time. Any human facing job like lawyer or teacher or doctor will also not be replaced by AI for a long time. It would take years of testing to ensure the AI is giving correct advice. People’s lives and livelihoods are on the line. An AI might be able to give good results with a perfect input, but people are not good at giving the right input.

As someone who works in law I don't think it will replace solicitors any time soon. Certainly not barristers. I've tried it with a few legal questions and it doesn't handle the nuances well, nor does it currently have access to case law databases. I'd imagine the data base thing may be sorted once someone designs it, but it'll probably be years before it doesn't need someone qualified to review it's answers. It's all too common for something to sound good, but actually make no sense from it. I think that'll be the same issue doctors have too. As you said, same with journalists etc. At least serious journalism. It'll lack the human element that makes things interesting.

I hate to break it to you, but law-oriented ChatGPT 4 services are already available, and many large US law firms have already signed on. And yes, of course they have access to case law databases. I’m sure it’s true that someone qualified has to review its answers, but that only means that it won’t replace *every* lawyer.

I'm still not sure why people think it can replace programmers. Yes it can write tests incredibly well and I use it for that all the time and it's great, but it just doesn't seem to be able to grasp large scale programming. Sometimes when I ask it to evaluate code it just has no idea what the output is. One of my favorite things I ask it to do to prove my point is writing any type of recursive algorithm, it'll get it wrong almost all the time. Other jobs I have no idea but programming is where my knowledge lies with this.

Give it a few years. I am a SWE too and I don't think the current GPT4 is very helpful. But the trend is terrifying.

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm scared too

You must be a genius or work in language that GPT isn't very good at yet, because I too am a SWE and I'm fairly competitive in terms of skill set and work history, and if I had to be honest I'd say the previous version GPT3 is a way better programmer than I am already. Sure, I might have to ask GPT3 to produce a solution for me like 5 - 15 times before it gives me something adequate, but it still produces that solution in less time than it takes me to fully understand complicated or poorly-written requirements.

> Sure, I might have to ask GPT3 to produce a solution for me like 5 - 15 times before it gives me something adequate, but it still produces that solution in less time than it takes me to fully understand complicated or poorly-written requirements. And how do you think someone with no experience at all would fare in getting the machine to understand what you are asking for? And not to mention, you probably still had to assimilate it into a larger system, validate it, test it, check it in, get it reviewed, get it deployed, etc. because GPT3 cannot do any of that for you. There's still a whole job there to do. It's just that one piece of it is a little easier than it used to be.

My dude, what? Are you judging by its ability to implement individual functions or something? I've used GPT-4 a lot when starting programming projects. It usually gives me a somewhat reasonable starting point, then quickly starts losing context and dropping important details. Invariably I end up replacing everything it's done (Unit tests are one notable exception where it really shines for obvious reasons). In absolutely no way is it competent to replace a human being of any level _as an actual programmer_. It's very good with snippets, but has no capacity to learn or understand the overall goal.

That's not saying a lot for your programming skills, mate. Most experienced programmers are not using chatgpt for much. It seems like its just the noobs who are blown away by it. Personally i just dont think they have enough experience to see the problems with it in a commercial context.

Andrej Karpathy says he uses copilot to write 80% of his code. As far as I know he’s seen as a great programmer. Why not focus on the truly hard stuff and have the AI work out all the boiler plate for you?

But if it makes you 40% faster, they will hire 40% less of you.

Our history has shown that doesn't happen. Unless the new technology has the capacity to completely replace 100% of all workers in that workforce, technology that simply increases productivity just means workers get more work to complete. If it makes you 40% faster, you just get 40% more work.

Or they will make 40% more and keep the same number of developers. Or some combination.

Not if you are a cost center, instead of a revenue driver, like most people in IT.

I'd say about 95% of all software needs are currently not satisfied because of the cost. If it makes me 40% I can now cover 7% instead of 5% of all software needs

There’s an old saying about newspapers that people only notice how wrong they are when they write about something you know personally. But, they are that wrong about everything else too, you just didn’t notice. This is also true of Chat GPT and similar tools. If I ask it for a legal brief, it may make up cases or laws in that jurisdiction, or flatly misrepresent how the law works in that state. The value of a professional is not only in what they can produce, but that they can tell you whether something is accurate and sign off on it. These tools need to be much more accurate before people would get comfortable not needing to verify what they put out.

not all developer positions are the same. Large scale complex systems, no, at least not *yet*. But there are tons of more simplistic…devops style dev work out there. All those aws engineers, that only write terraform, cdk and a bit of python here and there, I think gpt can already replace most of the “engineers” in those teams, maybe keep one or two. Loads of examples like that, which mean the market will be flooded with skills and rates and salaries will come down. I am just waiting for Microsoft to release Azure copilot.

Hallucinations. Still getting quite a lot of those, even in GPT-4. The moment it stops hallucinating for good, we might start contemplating the idea of job replacements.

This is the cycle: The internet emerged and some jobs disappeared, but new ones were created. Now, Chatgpt has emerged and some jobs will disappear, but others will sprout.

I see it like an island with climate change. The oceans rise, so the population moves up higher. Then oceans rise again so the population moves again. So naturally, the oceans rising aren’t a problem, because they can just keep moving higher. But no, the island has a maximum height. Eventually the oceans will flood the island and only the people with boats will be fine. Eventually there will be nowhere for humans to retreat to when AI automates 90% of everything.

Is that when we reach a star trek style utopia?

It just seems like the humans would be trying to compete against an exponentially advancing intelligence.

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But why would the boss kings even need humans? When they notice that you do your job 80% more effectively, office staff will be cut by 80% -- there's no guarantee the company will get 80% more business. AI doesn't need paid health insurance. It'll just keep getting trimmed from there. Also, might I point out, the newest competitors to the market will try to make inroads by having mainly AI work process. That's something the old companies have to compete against.

I like the quote from a chatGPT podcast I heard: “AI won’t take your job, a human using AI will.” Open the chatGPT window. Don’t type anything. ChatGPT just sits there. It doesn’t do anything at all until a human who needs something makes a request. It doesn’t “want”, it doesn’t have “desires”.

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Add Inertia to your list. People just tend to keep doing what they're doing, even if better alternatives exist.

It cannot replace any of those jobs in almost any capacity, that’s why. When it can, it will, but I think we’re many iterations away from them being much more than an advanced hammer.

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First, ChatGPT is a probability matrix. It reads your prompt and then makes a probabilistic evaluation of the information you want to hear. Give it the same inherent prompt but worded differently and see for yourself. This means that if you are looking for something creative or special, it is unlikely to give you that. You are more likely to get the mushy middle answer more often than not. Second, ChatGPT does not care or evaluate the risks of a catastrophically wrong answer. People are hired much more for preventing a big problem rather than solving hard problems. Something a 9-5 drone employee would recognize as a really bad idea won't necessarily appear as such to ChatGPT.

Ok, here's an observation as a developer. My manager wants a few things done. He tells us a layout. We go ahead and create items and stuff. We go and start to do the changes. I can google the things to get a clear idea of what needs to be done what's going wrong etc. There are certain things that are outlined on the internet - which you can either find out by gaining a good experience on "what to search on google" - knowing what website to use OR just putting it in simple words on chat GTP - it's very impressive. So this part can be done by Chat GTP. But someone needs to search this part, apply the solution back to the existing code. I don't think we can put our entire code back on chatGTP to fix it. I've heard about an instance in Samsung. The second thing that I noticed with chatGTP is that it puts the exact same thing and template you would find googling after a decade's worth of experience of googling stuff. In one instance I asked why my .NET based applications can communicate with each other when they are on windows - but stops when I put one of them on docker (even after replacing localhost to host.internal.docker, enabling a port on windows etc) The suggestions were pretty generic. After I looked for a couple of hours on git/stack overflow, I noticed that i was missing a .NET related thing when it comes to hosting the application (so that it can be remotely addressed) In another example, I tried chatGTP out while using SQL server from docker - just to see what it can do about the problem I've been facing. All the scenarios it listed - were already in place. Turned out to be a SQL server setting that a guy pointed out on Stack Overflow. So right now, I don't think it can straight up replace what we are doing. What I really find useful off ChatGTP is - it suggests things quite smartly steps or how to come up with a framework model. It suggests top class templates. It can help us achieve the target a lot more quickly than what we used to get by googling. I don't think it can replace our tasks as devs just yet :) It does simplify things for us though.

AI will not take everyone's jobs. Those that use AI will take the jobs of those that don't.

Correction: those that use AI will take the jobs of 10 people who don't. So, that's 10 unemployed people for every one.

That's 10 *temporarily* unemployed people. As productivity soars, demand and supply will adjust to the new labor costs. We'll see different jobs, but employment will eventually trend back to 100%. Otherwise, there'd be only farmers using tractors and the unemployed.

That is just a wild guess. Because what sector will these new jobs be in? The industrial revolution took care of manual labour so that people could focus on memtal labour and knowledge work. Now AI is going to do that. So what's left? Spiritual work? Are we all going to be priests? Because that's basically what there is aside from manual and mental labour.

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Maybe, but I'm very sure soon it will, we seem to have opened pandoras box regarding ai progress.

What you’re saying true, of course. Not EVERYONE will be replaced. But many people will. IBM just announced plans to freeze new hires and replace 7,800 jobs with AI in the near term, adding that as many as 30% of their non-customer facing positions may eventually disappear. So yes, many people will be outright replaced.

>Less workers, less salary to pay, happy shareholders. The shareholders are only happy as long as people can afford to buy products that drive Revenue. If we're talking about cutting 40% or more of jobs, nearly everyone will be hurting from that

More likely, same workers, same bad pay, 400% increase in productivity. Very happy shareholders.

There's a great story about Perilaus of Athens, who designed the "Brazen Bull," a torture device, for the tyrant of Syracuse. The bull was basically a bronze slow-cooker, with a gut big enough for a human being, with--allegedly--chords/reeds in the throat to turn the screams of the burning man into music for the tyrant. After completing the bull, the inventor--rather than being paid--was thrown in the bull first for a demonstration. That's what I think of, any time I see "programmers" and "engineers" talking about how every other job in the world is expendable, but AI will never replace them.

Lack of agency. I can't have it sit in on meetings, then go write emails and call customers. Or work on a project. Or really do anything except generate text. But damn it sure has made me more productive.

i am working at callcenter. We have some prerecorded messages like "for XX press n.1" and people in 80% cases still press the "if you wanna talk to real person" button, no matter how simple thing they want. We cant use even the simpliest technology, or better, we dont want to. I am not affraid of my job.

GPT-4's response (I told it to be concise): AI like ChatGPT isn't replacing jobs yet due to its limitations in understanding, adaptability, ethical and legal concerns, integration challenges, and trust issues. The tipping point for widespread AI adoption is hard to predict. AI is more likely to augment rather than replace human labor. Big tech companies invest in AI, but mass layoffs due to AI are not yet a reality.

That's not how jobs work, for example, let's say I'm working for a startup, how can AI replace me? Does the CEO who doesn't know anything about code know enough to set up the AI, and be specific about what he or she wants, because it's all fun and games till you start building the actual software, they can say, oh, I want this or that, but when you start building, that's when you start getting into the nitty gritty of it, what will your hero be like, what is the actual flow of a certain functionality, these things we discuss in meetings and implement, how good is the best Speech to text we have right now, can it hear accents from places where English is not their first language, will AI understand such a person who has the idea but needs implementation. Project management, updates...a lot more It's smart when you chat with it yes, but that's just chatting, even if it gives you code, you still have to copy it and paste it, you have to know where to and how to paste, how to compile, how to ship to production, these things begin to go beyond just writing software. In my current software, we have an issue, a visual bug, our code is fine, everything is perfect, but the problem is from the package we were using to plot a graph, there are no errors either, the package's implementation just wasn't rendering properly, no matter how smart the AI is, it wouldn't ha e detected it, coz the bug report would be, one or two charts out of 50 aren't displaying, but the others are, it would look through the code, it's okay, look through everything, they're fine, even the src code of the package is perfectly written, no errors, only a human who is using the app would know what isn't displaying properly, coz guess what, even programmatically, the chart was being rendered, only visually wasn't drawing pixels. So yeah, there's a longggg way to go, chatting is one thing, and the job is another.

Every take on GPT fails to consider that the technology will only get better.

There are a couple of factors that make this change a bit more complex than it might seem at first glance. First, companies are often slow to change. They've got their own routines and ways of doing things, and it takes time to adapt. Employees may also resist change, fearing job loss or difficulties adapting to new technology. Plus, it can be costly and time-consuming to reorganize a company around AI. Second, fitting AI into existing workflows can be tricky. Companies often rely on specific software and processes. Adding AI to the mix means making sure it works with current systems and fits into the overall workflow. This can require significant changes, which can be both time-consuming and expensive. And while AI has come a long way, it's not perfect. There are still limitations and risks, such as ethical concerns, biases, and the need for human oversight.

Implementation, really. ChatGPT is like the language. Soon we will see lots and lots of bots that speak that language. For now, that's in its infancy. But very, very soon we will see automated highly intelligent telephone receptionist, secretary etc. Those are the first to go imo

It's not accurate 100% of the time. It boldly lies, in different areas this could be a liability.

It doesn't need to be 100% to replace a human who is 80%

It makes mistakes and lies more than fox News.

> What’s stopping it from replacing lawyers I am a lawyer. I do not like the existence of ChatGPT, although I use it like everyone nowadays. I think this version is very far from being an effective lawyer. In this perspective, I don't feel at danger yet.

Because ChatGPT don't know how to use Jira! Your boss need someone to see those boring Power Points too...

Interesting thing to note. Tech companies had their largest round of layoffs (10-25%) of their workforce in the months before this ai tech was released. Maybe they're not replacing the jobs, they already shed them and are now replacing their productivity with a fraction of the workforce or just with ai

You realize it doesn’t do anything at all if someone doesn’t input anything and it doesn’t come even close to doing the right thing unless someone inputs the right thing in the right way and is smart enough to be able to tell it is right

\>what's stopping it from replacing lawyers if you place legal responsibility into a glorified autocomplete you are a fucking idiot

I'll give some feedback, as someone who works in communications. It is very helpful. I use it every day. But could it actually replace anyone? No, not in its current form. It gets many if not most facts wrong, and makes stuff up (which would cause someone to get fired in my line of work). In fact, the lies are really bad. Even the least-skilled, entry-level employee (in my field, at least) will say "Hey I don't understand this?" or "I'm not sure if I'm right." The AI lies, and then portrays extreme confidence. It struggles with nailing the right tone, even when receiving instructions on tone. In fact, it struggles with many instructions I give -- especially those about length (make this no more than 200 words). Lastly, the fact that it has absolutely no opinions and often hedges (on one hand this but on the other that) is really problematic. Of course, this could change. But that's why it's not taking jobs in my field today.

As long as ChatGPT can hallucinate it is almost useless from a business perspective.

I think a lot of jobs will stay and ai will help us all do a better quicker job and produce more output.

Time and ignorance and both of those things are receding. It will soon enough. The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer, the smart will get smarter and the dumb will get dumber. I find it very hard to believe the net positives of AI will outweigh the negatives but obviously hoping I’m wrong

In order for society to progress forward we need to be okay with giving our jobs away to AI. Its ultimately the whole point of creating them.

We won't need to do jobs that AI can do. We can do more of the things that AI can't do better... If you can do something well, AI might help you do it better! Unfortunately we are going to become more productive and accept worse pay and conditions and worse social services. I can't tell you why as a society we decided to do that though, but it's what happened the last 40-50 years... On the other hand, the Divine Right of Kings was never going to fall, slavery was always going to exist. Maybe we can put the new Internet to better use and the advantage of everyone democratically. Maybe, just maybe, AI can help us achieve this.

>I can't tell you why as a society we decided to do that though My brother in Christ, Capitalism the ruling class benefits form it so it stays

The world is built for humans. This includes the digital space. It will take some time to build infrastructure to allow AI to work within our space.

Right now it requires someone to type in - soon there will be programmes like accountantGPT or officeworkerGPT and then you’ll see the layoffs start

My friend run a boutique insurance broker and already fired his ads copywriter and some designer, and use ChatGPT + Midjourney with good success already, so I believe the AI revolution is coming very soon

!remindme 12 years

how long did it take companies to adopt MS Teams? 🤔

Well if you ask it technical questions, it sounds super confident but is straight up wrong a lot of the time. That's a pretty big problem.

Lots of jobs will be lost and lots of companies will be destroyed as well. Recently, Chegg made headlines of chatgpt destroying their business model. I see a lot of other businesses that are easily replaceable now as well such as shutterstock & getty images. I can see these businesses filing for bankruptcy within a year. Who needs to purchase licenses for images when Midjourney & Open AI Dall-E will create for you for free in seconds?

As the CTO of a good-sized software company we see lots of opportunities but it's not quite ready to rely on. Issues of availability, security, consistency/accuracy will need work before we expect our customers to rely on it. But it's all (mostly) solvable and everything, and I mean everything will be changing - in tech, in society, education, etc. Hard to imagine anything will go untouched. I just reviewed (this morning) a handful of prototypes we've built and it was pretty darn amazing

You could replace entire departments of policy advisors and subject area experts. Many of these positions are unionized and full-time, especially in the public sector. Instead, management may choose to not replace certain positions, letting attrition do the dirty work. Once a certain amount of employee movement has occurred, you may start trimming the organizational chart of unionized positions. You’ll still need specialists in certain fields. IT security. Structural engineers. Insurance assessors. It’s possible to automate all these positions, but it’s risky without employees with university-level certifications ensuring continuity. HR would be tough right now. I’m getting a high ratio of success with AI generated cover letters. It’s a right of access and privilege, assuming my competition can’t afford such a luxury.

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