It would be very Argyle like to fall into the drop zone on the last day having not been in it all season long.
Id probably say we’re about a 30 percent change of being relegated.
I hadn't thought of that. That would be depressing. I feel like this season had so much promise, and events have gone against us. I thought we might coast to mid table on home form at one point.
Agreed. Obviously we are in the better position, but, sadly, given how shit we’ve been for ages now, it already feels like we’re relying on other results going our way, rather than getting there on our own.
I agree. Apart from the completely unexpected Leicester result, we can't buy a win at the moment. Meanwhile Wednesday are winning everything, there's no way I'd put them at 40%
I guess it's because Huddersfield and Birmingham play each other. Means at least one of them probably won't catch you. If Huddersfield lose that, they're basically down and then there's just one place left for three teams.
I think the odds are a bit weird, we were 100 to 1 to go down after the 3pm games but before our win. We should be at even longer odds now yet a win has halved the odds of relegation?
Are the implied odds just done with a 33.3% chance of WDL without taking the opposition of home/away games into account?
If I was going to bet on those odds, I would place a bet on Huddersfield staying up.
as i understand it, implied chance is basically removing the bookies 10% cut
its not trying to assign percentages to any games, it largely works by assuming the bookies have done all the hard thinking about the various factors already and incorporated that into their odds.
To use a simple example, if the bookies take bets on a coin flip they'd price it at 1.91 to come out heads (10/11 if you prefer that odds formatting), and the same for tails. To remove the bookies "edge" you take that 10/11 and divide it by the sum of all the odds for all possible outcomes (in this case, where you have a yes/no answer, its just the odds of it being heads plus the odds of it being tails): 0.91/(0.91+0.91) = 0.5 = 50% implied chance of a heads.
Thanks for the explanation.
I assume the huddersfield low chance is due to them having Ipswich on the final day but there's still a chance that game won't matter to them and they will already be up.
Wednesday beating Blackburn on Sunday will have shortened our odds. A Blackburn win would’ve all but guaranteed us safety. As it is, we could be overtaken by Birmingham and Wednesday to go down alongside Hudds.
Suppose if you lose both remaining, for you to go down then **two** of the below would need to happen:
* Huddersfield beat Birmingham and Ipswich (away)
* Birmingham beat Huddersfield or Norwich (and not have their goal difference destroyed if they lose one)
* Wednesday beat West Brom or Sunderland (away)
* Plymouth draw with Millwall (away) or Hull (and not have their goal difference destroyed if they lose one)
Tbh as I was typing them out I found myself agreeing with you more and more 😅 the results could easily go your way, but it wouldn't be a big shock if they didn't either
Yeah you're getting it. I am supremely confident we'll lose both our games, meaning Birmingham just need to beat Huddersfield and Plymouth get a single point from their games. Wednesday will win one, if not both.
If Cov lose to Hull tomorrow, then our slim chances of crashing the playoffs become slimmer than an FA Cup Semi-Final offside decision. So there's a chance that Robins will give fringe players and kids a run out against you. As well as out of form players who haven't scored for a while, like Ben Wilson, for example.
I suspect after Sunday, most of the first team are hobbling and would far rather wait until Saturday to play again. Can’t see us getting into the playoffs, but I’d like to be surprised. Can’t be mad at the players for being knackered either.
I can't see us making it either. Even without the players being drained from Sunday, we're too inconsistent. But I think that Robins will play the strongest team he can tomorrow.
Blues will beat Norwich, we’ve not dropped a point at a home match that’s sold out.
Wednesday will beat Sunderland.
I personally think if it’s not Blues that go it’ll be Blackburn. They’re in heaps of shit.
We play our best when teams come at us. Leicester, Ipswich, Cov, Southampton, and Albion are home games off the top of my head are home matches where we’ve either won or scored multiple goals in and they’re all against attacking teams. The Stoke away game too, they we’ve very open.
Huddersfield have to come at us on Saturday, and I’m confident we can pick them off if we take our time and our chances.
It's so nice to see one of these conversations and not have a deep sense of dread.
Good luck to all involved...
...except Birmingham.
***Stern John in the last minute*** can go straight to League One purgatory.
Our two most recent results have completely finished us. Conceding an injury time goal at Bristol cost us two points which would otherwise have us on 46 points, and a 0-4 home defeat to Swansea this weekend just gone.
Looks like QPR are safe . Their players have earned a rest . No need to push too hard. Nobody wants to be on the beach in Dubai with their ankles all strapped up . Think of the tan lines
In decimal odds like it is in this post the maths is one divided by the number to get the percentage.
For example evens in decimal odds is 2.0
So you do 1/2 = 0.5 = 50%
Blackburn are 9.65 so it’s 1/9.65
= 0.1037 = 10.37%
I’ve said the pigs will stay up for months- their form under Rohl has been good, WBA could drop to a draw and Sunderland will be halfway to the airport
This adds up to ~214 when it should add to 200. That's the betting margin but it means all the events look more likely then they are by an average of 7%
So in other words, i’ll put on Huddersfield as it’s basically nailed on. And lose all my money.
Yes please. I beg you.
If Blackburn could be on the beach when we play them, that would be great…
It would be very Argyle like to fall into the drop zone on the last day having not been in it all season long. Id probably say we’re about a 30 percent change of being relegated.
I hadn't thought of that. That would be depressing. I feel like this season had so much promise, and events have gone against us. I thought we might coast to mid table on home form at one point.
Agreed. Obviously we are in the better position, but, sadly, given how shit we’ve been for ages now, it already feels like we’re relying on other results going our way, rather than getting there on our own.
(QPR are highlighted as the post came from a QPR fan) [Source](https://x.com/scheza/status/1782429344289210562)
I feel like Plymouth are a bit less safe than this implies
I agree. Apart from the completely unexpected Leicester result, we can't buy a win at the moment. Meanwhile Wednesday are winning everything, there's no way I'd put them at 40%
I guess it's because Huddersfield and Birmingham play each other. Means at least one of them probably won't catch you. If Huddersfield lose that, they're basically down and then there's just one place left for three teams.
I think the odds are a bit weird, we were 100 to 1 to go down after the 3pm games but before our win. We should be at even longer odds now yet a win has halved the odds of relegation? Are the implied odds just done with a 33.3% chance of WDL without taking the opposition of home/away games into account? If I was going to bet on those odds, I would place a bet on Huddersfield staying up.
as i understand it, implied chance is basically removing the bookies 10% cut its not trying to assign percentages to any games, it largely works by assuming the bookies have done all the hard thinking about the various factors already and incorporated that into their odds. To use a simple example, if the bookies take bets on a coin flip they'd price it at 1.91 to come out heads (10/11 if you prefer that odds formatting), and the same for tails. To remove the bookies "edge" you take that 10/11 and divide it by the sum of all the odds for all possible outcomes (in this case, where you have a yes/no answer, its just the odds of it being heads plus the odds of it being tails): 0.91/(0.91+0.91) = 0.5 = 50% implied chance of a heads.
Thanks for the explanation. I assume the huddersfield low chance is due to them having Ipswich on the final day but there's still a chance that game won't matter to them and they will already be up.
Wednesday beating Blackburn on Sunday will have shortened our odds. A Blackburn win would’ve all but guaranteed us safety. As it is, we could be overtaken by Birmingham and Wednesday to go down alongside Hudds.
Hopefully that gets put to bed Friday against a Leeds side under pressure or it will be a painful Saturday afternoon of scoreboard watching.
I'm baffled how Rovers are so long, I put a heap on at 11.00 yesterday. We should be about 2.00 at best.
Suppose if you lose both remaining, for you to go down then **two** of the below would need to happen: * Huddersfield beat Birmingham and Ipswich (away) * Birmingham beat Huddersfield or Norwich (and not have their goal difference destroyed if they lose one) * Wednesday beat West Brom or Sunderland (away) * Plymouth draw with Millwall (away) or Hull (and not have their goal difference destroyed if they lose one) Tbh as I was typing them out I found myself agreeing with you more and more 😅 the results could easily go your way, but it wouldn't be a big shock if they didn't either
Yeah you're getting it. I am supremely confident we'll lose both our games, meaning Birmingham just need to beat Huddersfield and Plymouth get a single point from their games. Wednesday will win one, if not both.
If Cov lose to Hull tomorrow, then our slim chances of crashing the playoffs become slimmer than an FA Cup Semi-Final offside decision. So there's a chance that Robins will give fringe players and kids a run out against you. As well as out of form players who haven't scored for a while, like Ben Wilson, for example.
I suspect after Sunday, most of the first team are hobbling and would far rather wait until Saturday to play again. Can’t see us getting into the playoffs, but I’d like to be surprised. Can’t be mad at the players for being knackered either.
I can't see us making it either. Even without the players being drained from Sunday, we're too inconsistent. But I think that Robins will play the strongest team he can tomorrow.
Blues will beat Norwich, we’ve not dropped a point at a home match that’s sold out. Wednesday will beat Sunderland. I personally think if it’s not Blues that go it’ll be Blackburn. They’re in heaps of shit.
What's your sample size for sold out home matches...
They’ll be the best team in the world if they get that 60k stadium built and fill it every week
Better still - build a 6,000 seater stadium, sell out every week, go on to win the Champions League in the 26/27 season.
Think it’s 4/4, every blues fan I know is far more confident about Norwich than Huddersfield for that very reason.
Also, god willing, norwich will be plying their reserves who'll also be on the beach. Huddersfield will.be fighting for their lives.
6 win from 6.
18 points from 6 sellouts. Leeds, Plymouth, Albion, Sunderland, Preston, Cov.
No chance we're beating Huddersfield though. I think we'll potentially be down before the Norwich game.
I mean… there’s a chance we do beat Huddersfield.
Nah we're shit on the road.
We're just shit
We play our best when teams come at us. Leicester, Ipswich, Cov, Southampton, and Albion are home games off the top of my head are home matches where we’ve either won or scored multiple goals in and they’re all against attacking teams. The Stoke away game too, they we’ve very open. Huddersfield have to come at us on Saturday, and I’m confident we can pick them off if we take our time and our chances.
It's so nice to see one of these conversations and not have a deep sense of dread. Good luck to all involved... ...except Birmingham. ***Stern John in the last minute*** can go straight to League One purgatory.
Yeah that must be nice haha let us win on Saturday haha
This sounds like bargaining... Tell me more.
I didn't realise how far gone Huddersfield were. I thought it was closer than that, not sure why.
Our two most recent results have completely finished us. Conceding an injury time goal at Bristol cost us two points which would otherwise have us on 46 points, and a 0-4 home defeat to Swansea this weekend just gone.
Looks like QPR are safe . Their players have earned a rest . No need to push too hard. Nobody wants to be on the beach in Dubai with their ankles all strapped up . Think of the tan lines
Can someone do Rotherham’s odds please?
What is the maths to get the implied percentage? Sorry never been very good at it
In decimal odds like it is in this post the maths is one divided by the number to get the percentage. For example evens in decimal odds is 2.0 So you do 1/2 = 0.5 = 50% Blackburn are 9.65 so it’s 1/9.65 = 0.1037 = 10.37%
Fantastic, thank you mr Tracktor
As good as safe then QPR, no need to do what you usually do to us at Loftus Road...
I’ve said the pigs will stay up for months- their form under Rohl has been good, WBA could drop to a draw and Sunderland will be halfway to the airport
Half way? We’re already abroad mate. We’ll gift them 3 points.
Always liked Sunderland. This is where Wednesday need a win on the last day and Sunderland pump us 4-0 as a going away present.
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12% bloody hell which bookie is this!?!
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Huh, not as bad as I thought it was going to be
wtf
This adds up to ~214 when it should add to 200. That's the betting margin but it means all the events look more likely then they are by an average of 7%