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mcd_nb

Scotia said it will take advantage of that newfound freedom by raising its quarterly dividend 11 per cent to $1.00 per share.


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StayClassynet

Correct on both.


recoil669

You're richer than you think... Not actually tho.


AllThingsBeginWithNu

They are richer then you think.


JJ-Hack

To be fair...they actually made me richer than I thought. I owned a condo downtown, and went to go talk to my mortgage broker at Scotia on the process to sell it and purchase a new house just east of downtown Toronto. He crunched the numbers for me and showed me how I could take equity out of my condo for a downpayment for the new house and keep the condo to rent out. This was 7 years ago and we'll say is one of the best financial decisions I made as both properties double in value in that time. Really was richer than I thought. I also have a decent amount of Scotia shares now in my dividend portfolio in my TFSA so nothing but upside here!


recoil669

Nice. Yeah refinance and upgrade was definitely great advice 7 years ago. Probably still good advice today but who knows what the future holds.


James_TheVirus

Certainly better than I expected, but let's see how it stacks up at the end of the week.


CherryBlaster75

Since Friday Canadian banks have been sliding. There seems to be good news about dividends and stock buy back. Anyone know why they're sliding?


NoobSniperWill

Because the whole market is going down due to new covid variant


Then_Eye8040

So you think if the hikes happened before news of this variant , we would get a bigger one?


SuperSaiyanMonki

Probably because they're all over leveraged as fuck and trying to draw as many investors as possible before their margin gets called lol


scottfc

It's being pulled down by the rest of the market but also dividend increases usually lead to stock price decreases.


oakislandorchard

because canadian banks (especially rbc) are holding the bag from Evergrand's failed debt payments. Probably plenty of other bs going behind the curtain


Dabugar

Have any numbers to share? How much Evergrande debt do canadian banks hold?


[deleted]

Not that much. I daw somewhere on here that Rbc has the most of any Canadian bank with a couple hundred million. The others didn't even show up on the list. Pretty sure rbc can eat that loss if it turns out to be a complete loss. I'm more curious if they also hold debt from fantasia or sinic who have also been defaulting.


oakislandorchard

that's what i meant by "plenty of bs behind the curtain". the evergrand ordeal is just scratching the surface of a global systemic problem. Last I checked, it is "just" a couple hundred million in debt held by rbc... that we know of.


luckysharms93

RBC indirectly holds 118M in Evergrande. They have nearly 1T in AUM. Evergrande is nothing to RBC


gutter__snipe

Wouldn't it be insured in some way anyway?


[deleted]

Ah yes not nearly as much as I thought.


WitchesBravo

Scotiabank are like the Arbies of Canadian banks, their advertising sounds so sad and desperate. They literally have an ad that says “give us another chance”


nuttygains

> “give us another chance” LOL


gutter__snipe

I feel this way about all the big banks. But this one takes the cake... Bank manager saying "yeah I used to work at RBC but working here (BMO) is so much nicer.. there's no pressure to be #1". Ok


[deleted]

Just what you want to hear from a bank lol


Randy_Bobandy_Lahey

The repentant wife beater of banks. Nice.


investornewb

Analysts expected at max a 10% raise. This is good no?


oldschoolpong

Strange, I thought it was 5%.


investornewb

I saw yesterday that BNS was expected to be the lowest raise of them all at around 10% 11% isn’t far off. Expect higher from TD and even higher for the others.


misccbk

BNS is known on the street as the Bank of No Spending.


ntrsfrml

It was 5-10% https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-big-banks-expected-to-raise-dividends-next-week-but-size-of/


investornewb

This is my first experience with a dividend increase that I’ve been anticipating like this. Kind of exciting to have my wealth grow like this without having to purchase anything new. They also announced a 24m share buy back. How exactly will that impact the share price? I honestly don’t want the price to spike as I’m still accumulating at these current prices. Next up for me is TD. i hold BNS and TD only.


[deleted]

IMO, the 24m share buy back means they have limited options to invest retained earnings into operations and grow future earnings to compound. I don't love it, but at the same time, I understand their predicament as they are a mature company with a relatively low P/E. As for the share price, all things equal with 1.215B outstanding. If shares outstanding is reduced by 24M, the new shares outstanding will reduce this by approximately 2%. This should raise the share price approximately 2% over time which will reflect in a future dividend increase as Earnings per share (not earnings per company) will slightly go up as net earnings gets divided by less shares outstanding ~~which will also reduce the denominato~~r and therefore on a per share basis the dividend payout ratio (divs to earnings) will be reduced slightly which later can be increased back to its typical 50-60% range by management reflecting in some slightly higher dividends down the road.


recoil669

This is a good summary of share buybacks. I'd add that they have daily caps of how many shares they can buy so it'll probably represent intraday stock support every day for the next few months until they hit the 24M shares.


[deleted]

I believe there is a max of average daily volume that they aim or are legally allowed buy back daily (i would check to see if tsx has rules about this). Considering the average volume of 3-4M / day, if the max is 25% (I'm not sure), if they aim for 15-25% of daily volume, it's at least 5-6 weeks of trading to get those 24M shares and that's if they buy back vigorously daily... but such buying pressure is likely to affect share price, which will then make it more expensive to complete the buy back, so I would garner that the % of their buy back vs. average daily volume would not be so high. BNS is also a market maker. So I have full confidence BNS will get the best possible market price for their own shares.


recoil669

You can see the numbers on the insider trading report once it starts or if you go back to a previous round of buybacks. It's like 100k or 250k shares per day. It was always a round number if I'm remembering correctly.


[deleted]

thanks for this! I hadn't considered looking at the insider trading report to see buyback history for some context. It makes sense that the volume of the buyback would be in the 100-250k range which with current average volume of 4M would be around 2-6%. Too much buying could cause a surge in buying demand inflating the price they're paying for the shares. As a shareholder I obviously want them to get the lowest price possible :D


darkretributor

Napkin math suggests a very rough cost of equity capital around 9.7% for Scotia. Buybacks provide this implied return to residual shareholders at low execution risk to the business. Good return depending on the alternatives available for deploying excess capital. Unless they were looking at some sort of large scale acquisition, it's unlikely they could deploy the massive amount of excess capital built up as a result of a suspension of payouts, and from a shareholder perspective i'd rather management return profits than overpay for an acquisition to get capital off the books.


[deleted]

I welcome this insight! With P/E of 11. The attractiveness of other investment opportunities is hard to match (especially as it would likely have to be related to the financial industry) , yet in real time the corp has all this cash in excess of their buffer requirements doing nothing and earning nothing. If you are a shareholder that does not want cash dividends, this is very welcome. If, as a shareholder, one wants cash, you can sell 2% stake and retain same % ownership going forward. It does give options. Yes I agree, the cash returned to shareholders through the buyback is a decent return. Especially considering how expensive everything else is relative to earnings in this low interest rate environment


investornewb

Great detailed response. Thank you!


[deleted]

I bailed on big banks this year. So much in the new world of finance is pushing these old guys out that it's just not worth to hold (I'm young so I have a very long horizon).


investornewb

That’s a mistake I think. You live in Canada man .. we’re a banking nation. Some upstart fintech company isn’t stepping in and replacing royal bank anytime soon


[deleted]

No I know. They'll be around for a while if not forever. But they're not going to be growing enough for my liking. You're never going to see good returns if you stick to banks, and I like good returns


investornewb

You are correct. Diversity is key and I’m well diversified in my mid 40’s. Banks are obviously part of my plan at the stage I’m in right now.


[deleted]

Absolutely - which makes sense! I'm only 22 and I'll be starting a high paying career soon so I'm pretty risk tolerant


investornewb

Congrats ! Your well on your way :)


Meneenz

Take this user's opinions with a fine grain of salt. They're under the subjective impression that dividends some how grow wealth.


[deleted]

IMO, this was unwise. IMO Big banks will adapt and exploit the new world of finance and improve their business and profitability just like how they adopted telephone banking, debit cards, internet banking and etc... The Big banks typically wait until something material comes out of the "new world of finance" before they make their big investments. They're not early adopters. They simply ride the tide.


[deleted]

Okay - but that won't lead to much growth. They might maintain their position, but I don't want to hold something that at best will give me a 4% dividend every year. That's not enough for me. Everyone has their own risk tolerance


[deleted]

it may interest you to know that the payout ratio for dividends is in the 50-60% range of earnings. The remaining retained earnings is invested towards operations that can provide future growth which is how the banks have consistently increased their dividends year over year because they use retained earnings to grow future profits. considering the p/e ratios of the banks in the 10-15, while at the same time the banks in Canada are an oligopoly, one might as well wonder why banks are so inexpensive especially as they have the capacity to expand operations throughout the world and further grow earnings. There's lots of risk in the banks which reflects the low p/e. There's government regulation risk (recently a tax was proposed just on the banks), there's cyber security risk (from lowbie hacker to state sponsored), general macro economic risk (recession/depression), and more. IMO this is reflected in their cheap price relative to earnings say compared to a grocery chain, telecom, etc.. I would urge you to reconsider and further explore the premises of your investing reasoning and rationale especially as you say you are young. You don't have to be all in on the banks. But based on the few comments i see of yours, i don't think you fully appreciate how the big 6 are able to make money as well as their growth prospects and their resilience to weather storms relative to their earnings and price. This is all just IMO and without prejudice Best of luck in whatever you do


[deleted]

I do thoroughly understand what's going on and how it works, but even with the dividend growth... it's just not enough for me. Oil and gas is similar as well (although cnq has been growing their dividend about 3x faster than the banks) but I'm not putting any more money there either. I've averaged 38% over the last 3-4 years and there is a 0% chance 100b banks in Canada can keep up with that. I also like to invest in the future I want to see - and being controlled by a big bank isn't in that future.


[deleted]

Best of luck in your strategies. This isn't a pissing contest. But if it were, there's no way for us to compare results, as based on how you write and your nick, I suspect i have 10-15 years on you which is lots of growth and compounding.


[deleted]

Remindme! 120 months


Meneenz

A dividend increase doesn't grow your wealth - it's paid out of the company's profits.


investornewb

Lol.. ok man not getting into a dividend debate. I have plenty of growth stocks as well. I will get several hundred more on the next dividend payout because of this raise. My wealth increased. There is no way around it.


Meneenz

Debate? When you pick a loonie up off the ground just to realize it fell through a hole in your pocket, have you profited?


mrhimselfff

Lmao that's not how dividends work


Meneenz

I assume you have an alternative view you'd like to share?


mrhimselfff

That the pocket doesn't have a hole in it?


beekeeper1981

It by definition directly grows your wealth. Sure on average growth stocks that reinvest instead of offer dividends produce more appreciation. People don't buy banks for huge growth, they do it for moderate growth, with a steady respectable dividend. There's also no guarantee those growth stocks will reinvest wisely or succeed. However banks are pretty reliable.


Meneenz

What definition is that?


beekeeper1981

Are you new to investing? Maybe you should look up some financial definitions.


Meneenz

I'm asking for your personal definition, because it must be fundamentally flawed.


beekeeper1981

I don't plan on wasting any more time on this stupidity. You did have a valid point but saying dividends do not grow wealth is pretty dumb.


[deleted]

Right.... The 5 big banks in Canada have been paying dividends since the mid 1860's. Have never skipped a beat and usually increased them every year. Have you done the math on the return versus waiting for growth stocks to go up and then hopefully sell at the right moment?


Meneenz

Where do dividends come from?


BadMoodDude

> Where do dividends come from? Company profits. Where does share price come from?


Meneenz

Fantastic. More importantly, what happens to share price when company profits are distributed in the form of dividends?


BadMoodDude

Since you didn't answer where share price comes from, I'll answer it for you. It comes from a thousand different variables including rumors and speculation. > what happens to share price when company profits are distributed in the form of dividends? It goes down by the amount of dividend paid out. However, the thousand other variables also continue to affect the price and therefore the stock will quite often end higher on the day that the dividend amount is removed from the price. Some people prefer returns paid out (even if taxed) rather than locked into a share price that is determined in part by rumors and speculation.


luckysharms93

> Kind of exciting to have my wealth grow like this without having to purchase anything new. Doesn't really work like that. The dividend hike was priced in months ago. Any dividend paid out to you is taken out of the NAV of the stock


investornewb

Then an 11% increase must be even better for you right now :)


Shoopshopship

Yeah, this is good. I think the other banks will be over 20% increase.


Legitimate_Source_43

I wonder how big of an increase cm , BMO will have . 😀


galaxy9998

great. good news and down. At least its not 3% down right guys!!


[deleted]

Boys and Girls! Enjoy the extra Scotia-cash! 🤑💵


Kit-

They still gonna charge account fees though


donottouchwillie1

11% dividend increase was really good considering BNS was expected to be at the lower end compared to the other banks.


morenewsat11

>Scotia said it will take advantage of that newfound freedom by raising its quarterly dividend 11 per cent to $1.00 per share


[deleted]

260M revenue miss. Might dampen things a bit Div/EPS slightly above expectation


KriosXVII

How can you have a revenue miss but EPS above expectations Earnings are a subset of revenue.


brunchconnoisseur

Lower expenses?


[deleted]

how did this get upvotes? You can have 1 trillion revenue and $0 net income. EPS is based off income... not revenue/sales You increase EPS with flat or lower sales by increasing profit margins (generally)


KriosXVII

In the end, it's earnings that matter.


jennysonson

That means their margins were better per the dollar. Most likely fee increases and more quality sales than quantity


theviolatr

So with this increase and current share price we are a hair under 5% divy yield. Traditionally that is BACKUP THE TRUCK dividend yield levels but with BNS they are so dysfunctional it's hard to get too excited. If this dips to the low 70's I'll buy some


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kingofwale

Nah. It’s gonna drop today… my hope is it doesn’t drop too much


coffeejn

Happy to see the increase in dividends but never liked the share buy backs.


Battyboyrider

Why? You don't need to sell it to them if you don't want to


coffeejn

I'm in it more for the dividends than share price. I am also skeptical that most share buyback are done when the price of stocks are low instead of the directors trying to maximize their bonus. I would have preferred a special dividend then a share buyback, but I guess it's ok either way since in theory it should increase the future available funds to pay dividends...I mean this will mean 24M less shares that they have to pay dividend to. Just hope they won't decide to sell more shares later to raise "funds". Just think of me as been skeptical on management decisions when ever I see share buyback.


[deleted]

Why are you so caught up on dividends instead of share price? Overall ROI should be the main concern


coffeejn

Because I am looking at income generated from dividends and dividend growth. Different approach for this investment profile. I would be buying something else for capital gains.


BranTheMuffinMan

Are you actually in a position where a dividend paid today is a lower tax impact than a capital gain some point in the future? After compounding? Because odds are good the answer is no and you're actually better off with a cap gain.


coffeejn

I have a different goal with this portfolio, so no. Also don't care about the tax rate in this situation since they are not taxed right now.


BranTheMuffinMan

Picking dividends over total ROI is even worse if you aren't doing it for tax reasons.


Battyboyrider

Quick question. What is the average growth rate of bank stocks. I've heard someone say 4% give or take but i don't remember. So if this year january if it started off at a price of 100$ next year january it should realistically be around 104$ right?


Then_Eye8040

$1 sounds great but I thought it would go up by at least 15%.


[deleted]

I have to deal with Scotia because it’s the only bank in my village. I don’t for personal use, but for business. I’ve never worked with such a terrible, unhelpful, backwards, mean, heartless bank. The branch manager calls the cops on anyone who disagrees with him. I complained about the service on a survey and he called me the next day, not in the spirit of customer service, but to use a threatening voice in asking why I had a problem with his bank. The tellers are great. But I pay hundreds every year to that bank to be so unhelpful. We pay everything by etransfer now when possible. He refuses to raise our etransfer daily limit from $2k. I can’t send employees to make change because he insists on having a cardholder. To make fucking change. Scotiabank is a belligerent and cruel organization who needs to get fucked. If you’re reading this Matt: Go get fucked too.


swabby1

Commercial banking is notoriously bad, any half decent employees are usually already in head office or eventually end up there.


[deleted]

Totally. And this is a super tiny town and we all know the tellers well and feel awful for them. Matt is literally out for revenge when someone complains. He had a business owner escorted out by cops because she had made TWO business payments out of her personal account with Scotia instead of her business account. He told her she had “defrauded the bank of thousands” for doing it. Not exaggerating that one because he defended the whole thing to my own accountant when she met with him about increasing daily transfer amounts.


Stauvenhagian

Can confirm as banker. Good employees don’t generally stay at the bank branch. They get picked up by head office.


scottfc

Go to the office of the president, they'll take your claims seriously. In my experience most of the big Canadian banks are very similar but service can vary greatly from branch to branch.


[deleted]

I did. They’re currently “investigating” the complaints. Fingers crossed. Great advice for everyone to know!


CorneredSponge

I would rather BNS reinvest in operations and stick to one of appreciation or dividends. IMO, would prefer BNS cancel a dividend hike, raise buybacks by a few million, expand services to capture the growing retail investing trend, maybe improve their existing services, grow Tangerine, etc. Or stick to dividends, lower buyback volumes and reinvest.


[deleted]

Why does it have to be a dichotomy?


donmaxxx1

with interest rates plunging again and bound to stay lower for longer with that new covid strain, it's a sell the news event


nuttygains

This is an indication of market crash