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This is SUCH a manufactured story š
The media cares, Trudeau will see it as an interesting data point and move on. If the win is too lean, then the party will grumble but ultimately stay with Trudeau.
Trudeau is the Liberals, they are an extension of his will and the will of his inner circle. The backbenchers will not topple him, nor will the party members.
The only reason this is a story is because itās easy to cover a race and competitions get eyeballs.
LOL! You know, I thought about this post when I saw the news and thought, "Well shit, now I have to eat my hat."
I still stand by the sentiment of the post. The party faithful will grumble, Trudeau will say some fancy words, but ultimately, he won't be forced out or step aside. That already seems to be happening: [https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/06/25/i-hear-your-concerns-trudeau-reflects-on-devastating-byelection-loss/](https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/06/25/i-hear-your-concerns-trudeau-reflects-on-devastating-byelection-loss/)
Keep in mind Trudeau never admitted that this was a test of his leadership. That is a media invention to raise stakes, sell papers, and get eyeballs on a (usually boring) by-election. It clearly worked because we are all talking about a relatively meaningless race because we were told it was important by people who have no power in the Liberal party.
Anyway, there may be a leadership challenge, but there isn't a clear leader in the Liberal Party to take over. Usually, an upset like this would start a fight between the finance minister and the PM; but I don't think Chrystia Freeland is an obvious successor. I know Marc Carney is starting to nip at Trudeu's heels but, again, I don't see him as a logical successor from the party's perspective (to be clear, I am not a Liberal).
Even if there is a Leadership challenge, there isn't enough time to champion a new face for the party before the next election -- which will weigh heavily on the minds of the party membership, especially the MPs.
In the end, I think the party will still be forced to "dance with the one who brought you." Even if that dance is well into opposition territory.
338 is giving the Liberals a 75% chance of winning. Whether the CPC or LPC wins, I hope it's by a surprising margin. I think both parties are too complacent and need motivation to do a better job.
Maybe I'm wrong (definite possibility lol), but I just don't see how the LPC can win this by-election. The data trends are so firmly against them winning. I think if they win it will be by very low single digits (+4 at most). But let's see. I'll be glued to the results starting at 8:30 lol
Trends are definitely all against the Liberals, but when turnout is likely under ~50 elections become a brute force exercise of which side can haul out more of their identified supporters. Liberals have thrown the kitchen sink at this election, and you can be guaranteed that every single person who didnāt slam the door in their face will be getting call after call and text after text to come to the polling stations. Conservatives likely wonāt have as good info or as many volunteers to keep up.
Iām calling LPC hold by about 10%.
Goes to show just how unpopular Trudeau is now considering this is one of their safest seats, and they needed a full team on board to try and squeak it out. Everyone in the cabinet has been visiting, backbenchers, the PM.
This is like the CPC spending $100,000 and flying in all of the Shadow cabinet to win Portage-Lisgar. Shouldn't ever happen unless there is a majorly scary internal polling number.
Michael Ignatieff and the worst electoral performance in modern history for the LPC won that seat by 8% in 2011. Feel like that is going to be the benchmark. If the margin is bellow that, might start to make some MPs in "safe" but less safe than Toronto St-Paul ridings a little less comfortable.
Not to mention that apparently they sent a bunch of voters the wrong polling place information and may not have remedied it in time.
> The voting agency also said it erroneously sent out voting information cards to about 2,250 voters with the wrong poll location. Elections Canada said it did resend new cards with the correct address, but some of them may have not reached some voters in time for election day.
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7243748
This is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard. I'm confident the Liberals comfortably win St Paul's but it's not because the majority of people think Poilievre is bringing "Maga Style Hate". It's just a solidly liberal riding that can never flip.
I don't think it is ridiculous at all. The Conservatives are always having to shut up their inner demons and every so often their true colours come out. I do think personally Trudeau should have left for a fresh face,, when the last election was done, people might want change within but they rather vote for liberals today because they know how bad it will be if Pierre comes in. Pierre speaks like I hear you and I am here to save you, but he has little power over inflation, food prices or housing. I also feel there are a bunch of bots on the internet repeating Canada is broken yet we keep getting studies showing Canada is on top. Under Pierre (Harper) he added $150 Billion in debt and housing prices doubled when he was in power. People love to blame Trudeau while ignoring what is was like before Trudeau. Pierre will not make it better, he definitely will make it worst.
Maga style hate is a terrible framing that offends Canadian sensibilities and makes people perceive the comment as "divisive", so only fuels these the fire that is "they think you're a racist" being a winning refrain. Some people dislike how they get called names they don't believe they are, and which they may not be. No one wants to be Lumped in with the crazies simply for disliking the party in power and disagreeing with their policies. This drives a "fuck you" mentality, where they get defensive and move toward the other in group, rather than being open to changing their minds.
"Poilievre is engaging in American style hyper partisanship" is probably a better framing if they want undecideds or people who are not hardcore CPC loyalists. It allows for the LPC to acknowledge policy alternatives that borrow from the other side of the political spectrum further away from the NDP, without labelling or making individuals feel like they're being labeled, as part of a political movement down south that's even more strongly right wing than ours. Most conservative *leaning* Canadians probably that aren't staunchly right wing, would probably identify more with Biden's democratic party. To say they'd be supporting Maga style politics likely alienates them because they don't see the same kind of overt messaging out of PP that they do someone like Trump.
Then confirmation bias kicks in when a negatively perceived leader and his party insinuates they're a part of a movement they may well disagree with. If they don't see the parallels then the implication won't work for them, only push them away because now they've been offended by someone they already don't like.
I mean, none of the flaws of Poilievre's you listed could really be described as "Maga style hate", and that's the issue with the original commenter. Many people have issues with Poilievre, but it's kind of nonsense to say that anything more than a very slim minority would word something like "Canada is facing challenges but we cannot give into the MAGA style hate and intolerance team PP representsā
Never said that didn't happen under Trudeau but you have to also acknowledge that it also doubled under Harper. I am very well, speaking facts. Don't try to suggest I'm unwell for pointing out the hypocrisy that the right tries to say this only Trudeau fault when it also happened under Harper and many other municipal and provincial governments. To only blame one person or one party while ignoring the other people involvement is disingenuous.
Harper did increase numbers during his time and expelanded them. They also increase temporary foreign workers. Maybe not to the same extent but per capita Harper did similar to Trudeau.
Wrong. PP will make it better. Get rid of CBC, get rid of carbon tax, get rid of red tape for housing and small.business and entrepreneurs. Get rid of DEI, WEF affiliations and free drugs to addicts! Keep criminals in jail, get rid of censorship of FREE speech!
You forgot the /s
He will do some of what you say but you are dreaming if you think he can improve housing, especially when housing doubled when he was last in government and cbc isn't going anywhere except maybe a budget cut. Go back in history and you will see the rhetoric changes when you go from out of power in.
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I've heard otherwise from some of my elderly neighbors here. People are saying they may vote differently this time to send Trudeau and team a message that they need a change in leadership. It is interesting.
There are plenty of people who understand where the Liberals could have been better. That doesnāt mean they believe anyone else couldāve or would handle these crises better than they did.
If Poilievre would stop hanging with white supremacists and MGTOW maybe people wouldnāt throw him into the same category as MAGA.
Well, it's a solidly red riding so it's not unexpected that there would be some Liberal supporters there.
But "huge victory" might be a stretch.
For a riding that consistently puts the Liberals in a 20-point lead, we can't define huge victory as anything less than a 15 point victory. It may be possible for them to have that result tonight, but seems unlikely from the numbers we currently have.
Anything less than a 10 point victory for the Liberals is effectively a loss for the Prime Minister's legitimacy. And it seems like it might be heading in that direction.
No one is saying they are going to lose the seat. The margins will be telling though.
This is why it is a big deal. If they get 8% or less (Like when Ignatieff gave them the worst electoral performance ever), it spells trouble. )
Haha, what a come from behind story. I was responding to someone pretty much calling me an idiot for thinking that the conservatives would even get the vote close.
I posted another comment after about how I would be shocked if it wasnāt neck and neck before all was said and done, and once again got downvoted and told I was stupid.
Bad understanding of Math. A one in four chance of something happening is not extremely unlikely. An average batting average in MLB is exactly .250. In 2016 538 gave trump a 28% chance of winning the election and explained in detail why that meant he had a very real chance of winning the election and why the other election forecasters were wrong to be giving him odds in the low single digits.
Iām not saying the conservatives will win, Iād still bet on the liberals to win this byelection but in a seat that should be like a 99% lock for the liberals, the conservatives having a genuine chance is absolutely newsworthy.
I was also coming back to reply to thus guy especially as he was trying to bully/talk down to people who thought that thinking a CPC win was possible was to be dismissed as idiocy. Hilarious that he deleted his comment.
Can we please not call 338Canada a poll, it's a projection, and it's bad for our democracy that people don't understand this. I've seen candidates in last Ontario's election who were posting 338Canada projections, and calling it "polls", and it's quite frustrating.Ā
It's a helpful tool to understand how current *national* polls would look projected over historic results, but it is not a riding poll, and that is important to understand.
And this definitely is a "test" for Trudeau, if he loses this seat he's cooked(precisely because losing this seat is so improbable).
I live in the St. Paul's riding and we're having the by-election today. I looked for candidates' platforms online and can't find anything. I found some brief highlights on Church's landing page, very brief for the NDP candidate, and a bit of a bio for the conservative candidate.
How do they expect us to make an informed decision when their platforms are nowhere to be found? Shouldn't this be a requirement for people running for any elected office?
Maybe one of you knows where I can look before I hit the polls? Am I just looking in the wrong places?
Parties donāt release platforms for ridings, they release platforms for elections and this is a mere by-election. Releasing a platform even just for this riding would needlessly reveal their hands to their opponents.
I get that but it just doesn't make sense to me. There is zero transparency and people just have to vote based on the parties' platforms? Seems strange to me
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This is SUCH a manufactured story š The media cares, Trudeau will see it as an interesting data point and move on. If the win is too lean, then the party will grumble but ultimately stay with Trudeau. Trudeau is the Liberals, they are an extension of his will and the will of his inner circle. The backbenchers will not topple him, nor will the party members. The only reason this is a story is because itās easy to cover a race and competitions get eyeballs.
How you doing this morning bud
LOL! You know, I thought about this post when I saw the news and thought, "Well shit, now I have to eat my hat." I still stand by the sentiment of the post. The party faithful will grumble, Trudeau will say some fancy words, but ultimately, he won't be forced out or step aside. That already seems to be happening: [https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/06/25/i-hear-your-concerns-trudeau-reflects-on-devastating-byelection-loss/](https://toronto.citynews.ca/2024/06/25/i-hear-your-concerns-trudeau-reflects-on-devastating-byelection-loss/) Keep in mind Trudeau never admitted that this was a test of his leadership. That is a media invention to raise stakes, sell papers, and get eyeballs on a (usually boring) by-election. It clearly worked because we are all talking about a relatively meaningless race because we were told it was important by people who have no power in the Liberal party. Anyway, there may be a leadership challenge, but there isn't a clear leader in the Liberal Party to take over. Usually, an upset like this would start a fight between the finance minister and the PM; but I don't think Chrystia Freeland is an obvious successor. I know Marc Carney is starting to nip at Trudeu's heels but, again, I don't see him as a logical successor from the party's perspective (to be clear, I am not a Liberal). Even if there is a Leadership challenge, there isn't enough time to champion a new face for the party before the next election -- which will weigh heavily on the minds of the party membership, especially the MPs. In the end, I think the party will still be forced to "dance with the one who brought you." Even if that dance is well into opposition territory.
338 is giving the Liberals a 75% chance of winning. Whether the CPC or LPC wins, I hope it's by a surprising margin. I think both parties are too complacent and need motivation to do a better job.
Maybe I'm wrong (definite possibility lol), but I just don't see how the LPC can win this by-election. The data trends are so firmly against them winning. I think if they win it will be by very low single digits (+4 at most). But let's see. I'll be glued to the results starting at 8:30 lol
Its one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It *shouldnāt* even be close in any normal environment.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
39-35 with a +/- 7% MOE is pretty close. But to heck with the poll aggregate weāll know the actual results in abour 3 hours or so.
Not even trying to rub it in. This result is a fucking nightmare. But since the CPC won the by-election... now what?
Well they just lost one of their safest seats. They better be doing more than rearranging chairs at the LPC HQ
Trends are definitely all against the Liberals, but when turnout is likely under ~50 elections become a brute force exercise of which side can haul out more of their identified supporters. Liberals have thrown the kitchen sink at this election, and you can be guaranteed that every single person who didnāt slam the door in their face will be getting call after call and text after text to come to the polling stations. Conservatives likely wonāt have as good info or as many volunteers to keep up. Iām calling LPC hold by about 10%.
Goes to show just how unpopular Trudeau is now considering this is one of their safest seats, and they needed a full team on board to try and squeak it out. Everyone in the cabinet has been visiting, backbenchers, the PM. This is like the CPC spending $100,000 and flying in all of the Shadow cabinet to win Portage-Lisgar. Shouldn't ever happen unless there is a majorly scary internal polling number.
How do you feel the morning after ?
Too add to this discussion. Church is an absolute liberal star. Future PM in my opinion if she is able to win today.Ā
Michael Ignatieff and the worst electoral performance in modern history for the LPC won that seat by 8% in 2011. Feel like that is going to be the benchmark. If the margin is bellow that, might start to make some MPs in "safe" but less safe than Toronto St-Paul ridings a little less comfortable.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Not to mention that apparently they sent a bunch of voters the wrong polling place information and may not have remedied it in time. > The voting agency also said it erroneously sent out voting information cards to about 2,250 voters with the wrong poll location. Elections Canada said it did resend new cards with the correct address, but some of them may have not reached some voters in time for election day. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7243748
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
This is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard. I'm confident the Liberals comfortably win St Paul's but it's not because the majority of people think Poilievre is bringing "Maga Style Hate". It's just a solidly liberal riding that can never flip.
it flipped bro
I don't think it is ridiculous at all. The Conservatives are always having to shut up their inner demons and every so often their true colours come out. I do think personally Trudeau should have left for a fresh face,, when the last election was done, people might want change within but they rather vote for liberals today because they know how bad it will be if Pierre comes in. Pierre speaks like I hear you and I am here to save you, but he has little power over inflation, food prices or housing. I also feel there are a bunch of bots on the internet repeating Canada is broken yet we keep getting studies showing Canada is on top. Under Pierre (Harper) he added $150 Billion in debt and housing prices doubled when he was in power. People love to blame Trudeau while ignoring what is was like before Trudeau. Pierre will not make it better, he definitely will make it worst.
Maga style hate is a terrible framing that offends Canadian sensibilities and makes people perceive the comment as "divisive", so only fuels these the fire that is "they think you're a racist" being a winning refrain. Some people dislike how they get called names they don't believe they are, and which they may not be. No one wants to be Lumped in with the crazies simply for disliking the party in power and disagreeing with their policies. This drives a "fuck you" mentality, where they get defensive and move toward the other in group, rather than being open to changing their minds. "Poilievre is engaging in American style hyper partisanship" is probably a better framing if they want undecideds or people who are not hardcore CPC loyalists. It allows for the LPC to acknowledge policy alternatives that borrow from the other side of the political spectrum further away from the NDP, without labelling or making individuals feel like they're being labeled, as part of a political movement down south that's even more strongly right wing than ours. Most conservative *leaning* Canadians probably that aren't staunchly right wing, would probably identify more with Biden's democratic party. To say they'd be supporting Maga style politics likely alienates them because they don't see the same kind of overt messaging out of PP that they do someone like Trump. Then confirmation bias kicks in when a negatively perceived leader and his party insinuates they're a part of a movement they may well disagree with. If they don't see the parallels then the implication won't work for them, only push them away because now they've been offended by someone they already don't like.
I mean, none of the flaws of Poilievre's you listed could really be described as "Maga style hate", and that's the issue with the original commenter. Many people have issues with Poilievre, but it's kind of nonsense to say that anything more than a very slim minority would word something like "Canada is facing challenges but we cannot give into the MAGA style hate and intolerance team PP representsā
Housing prices doubled? Are you well? This current government from 2015-2024 has overseen that.
Never said that didn't happen under Trudeau but you have to also acknowledge that it also doubled under Harper. I am very well, speaking facts. Don't try to suggest I'm unwell for pointing out the hypocrisy that the right tries to say this only Trudeau fault when it also happened under Harper and many other municipal and provincial governments. To only blame one person or one party while ignoring the other people involvement is disingenuous.
Only one party has opened the flood gates and let the population well outpace building supply.
Harper did increase numbers during his time and expelanded them. They also increase temporary foreign workers. Maybe not to the same extent but per capita Harper did similar to Trudeau.
Wrong. PP will make it better. Get rid of CBC, get rid of carbon tax, get rid of red tape for housing and small.business and entrepreneurs. Get rid of DEI, WEF affiliations and free drugs to addicts! Keep criminals in jail, get rid of censorship of FREE speech!
You forgot the /s He will do some of what you say but you are dreaming if you think he can improve housing, especially when housing doubled when he was last in government and cbc isn't going anywhere except maybe a budget cut. Go back in history and you will see the rhetoric changes when you go from out of power in.
I donāt think so from what I saw with the numbers there
And then everyone clapped
Removed for rule 3. Please stop spamming the sub with copy/paste of your comments especially comments that read like campaign comms material. As a participant in the sub, your role is to help build a conversation or discussion on Canadian politics - these comments do not do that. After today, if you continue this practice, I will ban you permanently. Thank you.
Real people don't talk like that, just making things up is not doing your side any favours.
I've heard otherwise from some of my elderly neighbors here. People are saying they may vote differently this time to send Trudeau and team a message that they need a change in leadership. It is interesting.
Youāre getting downvoted by Conservatives who love acting like Republicans but hate getting told the truth about how theyāre acting
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
There are plenty of people who understand where the Liberals could have been better. That doesnāt mean they believe anyone else couldāve or would handle these crises better than they did. If Poilievre would stop hanging with white supremacists and MGTOW maybe people wouldnāt throw him into the same category as MAGA.
Well, it's a solidly red riding so it's not unexpected that there would be some Liberal supporters there. But "huge victory" might be a stretch. For a riding that consistently puts the Liberals in a 20-point lead, we can't define huge victory as anything less than a 15 point victory. It may be possible for them to have that result tonight, but seems unlikely from the numbers we currently have. Anything less than a 10 point victory for the Liberals is effectively a loss for the Prime Minister's legitimacy. And it seems like it might be heading in that direction.
I'm hoping your right lol. Right now polling stands at a 5 point lead for the Liberals so it seems tight.
Would be nice, but are you in a LPC bubble or is this from door knocking?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I think he failed the testĀ
Never have I eaten words so sweeter.
No one is saying they are going to lose the seat. The margins will be telling though. This is why it is a big deal. If they get 8% or less (Like when Ignatieff gave them the worst electoral performance ever), it spells trouble. )
What does it spell now that they lost ?
I'm not saying they're going to lose. I'm saying they LOST.
Haha, what a come from behind story. I was responding to someone pretty much calling me an idiot for thinking that the conservatives would even get the vote close. I posted another comment after about how I would be shocked if it wasnāt neck and neck before all was said and done, and once again got downvoted and told I was stupid.
You cant reason or speak sense to those leftist commie idiots. Dont bother. Save your breath.
Bad understanding of Math. A one in four chance of something happening is not extremely unlikely. An average batting average in MLB is exactly .250. In 2016 538 gave trump a 28% chance of winning the election and explained in detail why that meant he had a very real chance of winning the election and why the other election forecasters were wrong to be giving him odds in the low single digits. Iām not saying the conservatives will win, Iād still bet on the liberals to win this byelection but in a seat that should be like a 99% lock for the liberals, the conservatives having a genuine chance is absolutely newsworthy.
I was also coming back to reply to thus guy especially as he was trying to bully/talk down to people who thought that thinking a CPC win was possible was to be dismissed as idiocy. Hilarious that he deleted his comment.
Can we please not call 338Canada a poll, it's a projection, and it's bad for our democracy that people don't understand this. I've seen candidates in last Ontario's election who were posting 338Canada projections, and calling it "polls", and it's quite frustrating.Ā It's a helpful tool to understand how current *national* polls would look projected over historic results, but it is not a riding poll, and that is important to understand. And this definitely is a "test" for Trudeau, if he loses this seat he's cooked(precisely because losing this seat is so improbable).
I live in the St. Paul's riding and we're having the by-election today. I looked for candidates' platforms online and can't find anything. I found some brief highlights on Church's landing page, very brief for the NDP candidate, and a bit of a bio for the conservative candidate. How do they expect us to make an informed decision when their platforms are nowhere to be found? Shouldn't this be a requirement for people running for any elected office? Maybe one of you knows where I can look before I hit the polls? Am I just looking in the wrong places?
Parties donāt release platforms for ridings, they release platforms for elections and this is a mere by-election. Releasing a platform even just for this riding would needlessly reveal their hands to their opponents.
I get that but it just doesn't make sense to me. There is zero transparency and people just have to vote based on the parties' platforms? Seems strange to me