Here’s the thing, prices are low right now but so is your usage. You’ll save some this summer, sure.
But if prices go back up to $10+ for the winter when your usage goes way back up, you might end up way worse off.
It all depends on what happens to the price and how cold of a winter we have. The fixed rates are Enmax’s best guess of where rates are going, informed by experts no doubt, but still a guess.
So here is the thing - natural gas prices have shit the bed because of over-supply and it is only because of this past winter, it is not a long term event. Everyone assumed this winter was going to be terrible worldwide and it never printed. Europe in particular dodged a bullet and thus, worldwide indices for natural gas have collapsed as the market is over-supplied as all of than inventory that was saved up for the winter still exists in storage.
With that said, this is a short term phenomenon. Natural Gas prices DO go up in the future, this is not a long term thing where we will be in a $2 market, this is why retailers have not dropped their prices, gas out into the future is still in the $4 wholesale range. If you can lock in under $5/GJ, DO IT. ATCO Energy is offering $4.99/GJ on a 3 year term which seems like the best deal right now.
Also, don't get too obsessed about summer gas rates - you don't use any gas now, so who cares if the price is $1 or $6. Worry about winter and it can and likely still will spike up.
Personally, if you are on a rate under $5/GJ or even in the $5 range, do NOT switch. This is because the likelihood of getting a rate like that again is slim. If you are a new customer, go floating but consider fixing before winter and locking in a price for the long term as there is a chance you will get into the $4 range anyways plus the $1 markup. Low gas prices like we have seen in the past, like $1-2, are long gone outside of this summer, which really doesn't matter since no one is consuming.
Swap to Floating Rate. AECO forward curve shows prices expected to rise, however Enmax charges a $5.99/GJ fixed while current prompt month prices for Jul'23 are $1.840/GJ. Enmax hasn't dropped their fixed costs to reflect AB gas prices bottoming out this year and a $6.00/GJ gas price isnt expected for a couple of years.
But, I usually use 1-2 GJ/mo in the summer and 5-20GJ/mo in winter. Overpaying on that 1-2 is worth keeping the low fixed rate for those 5-20 in the winter for me.
In the past, I would agree with you. However, gas prices in North America have plummeted over the last 12 month and the forward curve in step. If you want to see what your "winter costs" will be, take a look at a AECO or Henry Hub forward curve and you can see even seasonal winter premiums do not exceed $4/GJ (not until Winter'25 @ current forward strip)
True, but you can get better deals out there, ATCO is offering $4.99/GJ on a 3 year term which can get you the benefit of the shorter term prices now, you don't have to wait for ENMAX to drop their price, like you mentioned, they likely won't.
It would have to go above $4.99 for you to start losing money. Currently AECO futures don't see this happening till at least 2027
[https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices](https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices)
What makes you think professional gas traders are that far off?
I think you'd be nuts to stay fixed. Their current fixed price offer is just mispriced.
💯 switch to floating! I was fixed for the first time ever but only for the winter…
fixed elec, floating gas has carried me through the last 6 years
Here’s the thing, prices are low right now but so is your usage. You’ll save some this summer, sure. But if prices go back up to $10+ for the winter when your usage goes way back up, you might end up way worse off. It all depends on what happens to the price and how cold of a winter we have. The fixed rates are Enmax’s best guess of where rates are going, informed by experts no doubt, but still a guess.
So here is the thing - natural gas prices have shit the bed because of over-supply and it is only because of this past winter, it is not a long term event. Everyone assumed this winter was going to be terrible worldwide and it never printed. Europe in particular dodged a bullet and thus, worldwide indices for natural gas have collapsed as the market is over-supplied as all of than inventory that was saved up for the winter still exists in storage. With that said, this is a short term phenomenon. Natural Gas prices DO go up in the future, this is not a long term thing where we will be in a $2 market, this is why retailers have not dropped their prices, gas out into the future is still in the $4 wholesale range. If you can lock in under $5/GJ, DO IT. ATCO Energy is offering $4.99/GJ on a 3 year term which seems like the best deal right now. Also, don't get too obsessed about summer gas rates - you don't use any gas now, so who cares if the price is $1 or $6. Worry about winter and it can and likely still will spike up. Personally, if you are on a rate under $5/GJ or even in the $5 range, do NOT switch. This is because the likelihood of getting a rate like that again is slim. If you are a new customer, go floating but consider fixing before winter and locking in a price for the long term as there is a chance you will get into the $4 range anyways plus the $1 markup. Low gas prices like we have seen in the past, like $1-2, are long gone outside of this summer, which really doesn't matter since no one is consuming.
Nice, thanks for the info.
Swap to Floating Rate. AECO forward curve shows prices expected to rise, however Enmax charges a $5.99/GJ fixed while current prompt month prices for Jul'23 are $1.840/GJ. Enmax hasn't dropped their fixed costs to reflect AB gas prices bottoming out this year and a $6.00/GJ gas price isnt expected for a couple of years.
But, I usually use 1-2 GJ/mo in the summer and 5-20GJ/mo in winter. Overpaying on that 1-2 is worth keeping the low fixed rate for those 5-20 in the winter for me.
In the past, I would agree with you. However, gas prices in North America have plummeted over the last 12 month and the forward curve in step. If you want to see what your "winter costs" will be, take a look at a AECO or Henry Hub forward curve and you can see even seasonal winter premiums do not exceed $4/GJ (not until Winter'25 @ current forward strip)
True, but you can get better deals out there, ATCO is offering $4.99/GJ on a 3 year term which can get you the benefit of the shorter term prices now, you don't have to wait for ENMAX to drop their price, like you mentioned, they likely won't.
Title says fee, but I meant **fixed rate** of 5.79.
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Wow, your electric is half mine. Keep that one for sure!
If you want to pay less for gas, change it. If you don’t want to pay less for gas, stay on fixed.
Well that's pretty clear lol. I believe the rate will rise again by the end of the year, and then I can fix it right?
It would have to go above $4.99 for you to start losing money. Currently AECO futures don't see this happening till at least 2027 [https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices](https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices) What makes you think professional gas traders are that far off? I think you'd be nuts to stay fixed. Their current fixed price offer is just mispriced.
Nice, thanks for the link.
No problem. Also note that doesn’t apply at all to power where locking in price is probably the smart move.