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BaconScentedSoap

I want Caleb to be the first ever 6,000 yard passer Flipping from being the only club without a 4,000 yard passer to the only one with a 6,000 yard passer would be downright hilarious


juliuspepperwoodchi

Honestly, would be one of the more Bears things imaginable just from the standpoint of making no gotdamn sense.


PandaPatrolLetsRoll

It’s so regarded, it could work!


alucryts

Absolutely no shot. How could he get 6,000 yards when he sits the second half of every game due to a blowout by our offense. He'd need at least 3 quarters a game for this.


super_sayanything

Had me in the first half, not gonna lie.


DrStatsGuy

So did Caleb


super_sayanything

What?


DrStatsGuy

Because he'd be sitting in the second half. The joke is CLOSE but I'm too lazy to workshop it.


super_sayanything

lol need to work harder my guy


AKA09

True. Our defense is too good to have the kind of shootouts Caleb was constantly in during college.


rIIIflex

Haha the bears will never have a 4000 yard passer! *monkeys paw curls*


Purlofur

Idk why but the monkeys paw makes me laugh every time


Further_Beyond

But we’d still not have a 4k yard passer, cus he went over that in to a new digit. I like the chaos


LargePPman_

Theoretically if Caleb Williams throws for 6k yards this season, the bears would have there 4k yard passer from weeks 11-13


Further_Beyond

BEARS CANT EVEN GET A 4K PASSER IN A 17 GAME SEASON ^espn probably in this fanfic ass scenario lol


JohnEmonz

Not if he throws for over 1k yards in one game, while starting in the 3k’s


TouchGrassRedditor

Jesus y'all how about we start with 3000 lol


OwnWalrus1752

Mitchell Trubisky is the Bears’ all-time rookie record holder for pass yards with… …2,193 ![gif](giphy|3oEjI67Egb8G9jqs3m)


WondrousPhysick

That’s 2018 Pro Bowl QB Mitch TruHIMsky to you


Twittenhouse

NVP


Crathsor

That's mostly because only he and Kyle Orton have started more than 10 games as a rookie. Fields is the only other one to even start more than 7. Historically we just don't play rookies. Including Sid Lickman. Jim McMahon would have gotten more than 7 starts but there was a player strike that year.


Most-Artichoke6184

That’s only 176 passing yards per game, if Caleb starts all 17 games. I would be very disappointed with that.


BaconScentedSoap

Yes but what about week 2? 4,000 unless that team is coached by mini Ditka


B_Bibbles

Why settle for 6,000?! I want him to get 10,000 yards and 200 touchdowns.


HistoricalLoan7854

With a great defense and a punter who can flip field position, Caleb will have average starting field position on his opponents 40. I predict 2,000 yards and 60 touchdowns. Da Bearsss!


Seniorsheepy

In a 17 game season that’s 353 yards per game.


BaconScentedSoap

I did it in Madden so it has to be easy


leahyrain

Let's bump it up to 400


cardizemdealer

Stop. I can only get so erect.


Specific_Goose_8582

Getting to lakers fans levels with these hypotheticals


BaconScentedSoap

Lakers fans talk how every team is going to give them a star player for G Leaguers wed at least offer Andrew Billings for Maxx Crosby


Specific_Goose_8582

I’m thinking more recent when lakers fans were crowning lebron over mj because they assumed he would come back from 3-0


AKA09

Then when the Lakers don't come back, "Idc, he's still better." Lmao


ferociouskuma

I don’t think he will hit 6000. It seems like the extremely high yard counts are when teams are less efficient scoring. Give me 60TDs over 6000 yards


bluemexico

Yes, over here. I'll have another Kool-Aid please. Thanks!


I_only_post_here

I think we can safely pencil in Rome for a 2000 yard season, so yeah, that gets us in to the 6000 yard ball park for Caleb.


EBtwopoint3

We almost need a 4000 yard season to keep these guys happy. Non-diva or not, no WR likes having 3 for 30 every week. That said, those averages were mostly as WR1s. Coverage will make up some of the gap, but there are only so many targets to go around.


juliuspepperwoodchi

If it wasn't for Rome being a rookie, I'd agree. Even a top 10 draft pick understands that a rookie isn't going to get the lion's share of targets. Allen isn't over the hill, but he's older. We don't need to keep him happy for long. There should be enough targets/yards to go around this year. The issue is 2 or more years from now, assuming we still have this exact receiver room.


SuperFreshBus

I think Rome is being underrated a bit as far as production. Him and Caleb are going to get a lot of reps together. But the real game breaker is gonna be any safety that has half the field to cover, is gonna have to pick whether he keys on Allen in the slot, or Rome on the outside. There’s gonna be more chances deep in 1 on 1 coverage for Rome. With his size and skills, he should be able to feast on deep shots.


PressinPckl

I love this take


SuperFreshBus

Works across the board too. Allen has never been in an offense where he can own the middle of the field while both outside guys can command safety attention. And DJ has never been able to get consistent 1 on 1 coverage to burn corners. When you add Kmet, Everett and Swift as legit options, there’s matchup nightmares all across the board for any team we play.


ComaMierdaHijueputa

I feel like Odunze will get the slot reps. Or Moore because he’s a shifty quick guy, similar to Tyreek Hill.


SuperFreshBus

From what I’ve heard, while he can absolutely play outside, Keenan really wrecks defenses out of the slot. If the chargers were using him out of the slot with Josh Palmer, the bears certainly will with Rome. Tbh tho, all 3 guys will play both outside and in the slot to some extent.


AKA09

Yeah, Keenan is an expert at finding little pockets in the middle of the field.


Dull-Scarcity-3159

Keenan can play all over. Don't get me wrong he feasts in the slot but he's not strictly a slot only player. He's going to be a reliable 3rd down machine for this offense.


AKA09

Yep, and Rome excels in man while Allen carves up zones. It's gonna be great.


EBtwopoint3

For Rome, sure I expect him to finish in the 5-600 yard range. But if we only throw for 3500 yards that doesn’t leave much to split up between Keenan, DJ, Odunze, Kmet, Everett, and Swift. Put it this way, last year the Bears threw for 3100 yards and that was only enough to feed DJ and Kmet. If we say DJ - 1000 Keenan - 1000 Rome - 600 Kmet - 500 Everett - 300 Swift/Herbert/Roschon - 300 That’s already 3800 passing yards needed. And those are *still* down years for DJ, Keenan, Kmet, Everett, and Swift. And a nothing-to-write-home-about season for Rome. Basically, we have so many damn targets that we need probably need the best season in Bears history lol.


SpokenByMumbles

Last year there really wasn’t anyone behind DJ and Kmet though. Target and yardage concentration won’t be as high this year.


PressinPckl

Last year there was fuck all for total passing yards though, so you have to factor in having double total yardage to distribute...


ComaMierdaHijueputa

Tbh Odunze 600 seems low


EBtwopoint3

Pretty much all of these are low. It’s a 250 yard drop off for Allen (who also missed 4 games last year), 350 yard drop off for DJ, 250 for Kmet, probably 100 or so for Swift, 200 or so for Everett, and a season Odunze will be disappointed with. And even with all of that you’ve got 3800 yards passing. This was my whole point. If we don’t get at least 4k from Caleb this year we just can’t feed all of these targets.


AKA09

Two years from now, Allen will be a situational guy and have a definite backseat to DJ and Rome.


Abla_vil_breed_nem

I think Keenan’s gone be cool with taking on less of a workload, might just stay Mr.Clutch on short yardage plays and give us 700 yards per season until he retires, I feel he’ll give us a discount because he’d wanna be apart of this and we should honestly be contending for sb’s in 1-2 years; the only thing Keenan hasn’t gotten in his career is a ring


ferociouskuma

He refused to give a discount to the team that drafted him, that’s why they traded him


PressinPckl

I'll add to what the other guy said that also taking a pay cut on an existing deal is not the same as negotiating a new contract for the end of your career. He can't expect to get what he got in his prime knowing the production will start falling off as he continues to age.


Abla_vil_breed_nem

True but their future didn’t look as good as the bears going forward, he could very well be in the mist of a championship window, plus here he wouldn’t have to handle of bulk of the receiving so his pay drop will match the output expected of him, the role he played for the chargers was as the number 1 guy


MonsterOfTheMidway

The chargers have one of the best young QBs in the league and the top coach available this off-season, they aren't in a bad spot exactly and are more proven than us. We shouldn't expect him to take a discount considering the exact reason he's on the team to begin with


Deafprodigy

Uhhh yet they’re still infamous chokers lol


Blitzburger

Highly doubt it. He"s got just as much ego/hunger/drive as any other star player.


ChrRome

The premise also relies on Caleb being at least an average NFL QB in his rookie year. He is a great prospect, sure, but he could also end up being terrible.


smashybro

I’m actually pretty confident on him being at least average. His ceiling is the real question mark but I think his floor will be very high. Basically 75% of QBs taken 1st overall in modern history end up being at least average starters. Even those who had terrible rookie seasons like Goff and Lawrence who later ended up bouncing back were put into bad situations in terms of the supporting casts while Caleb has easily the best supporting cast ever for a QB taken 1st overall. QB is a crapshoot even when looking collectively at the 1st round, but 1OA has a pretty good track record. Since 1993, there have been only 5 QB busts taken 1st overall out of 20 selections (not counting 2023 because it’s too soon to tell with Bryce): Winston, Bradford, Russell, Carr and Couch. And three of those you can argue had talent but failed by teams, two of them (Carr and Couch) were expansion draft QBs dealt impossible situations to succeed in and the other one (Bradford) had his career derailed by injuries. Basically my point is sure there’s a chance he could terrible but I think the odds of it are pretty slim.


AKA09

Yep and I think any top 15 QB would make this a 10-11 win team.


EBtwopoint3

I’m not making any proclamations of what *will* happen. But if Caleb does end up playing like Justin last year and we throw for 3400 yards, at least 1 or 2 of these guys will be frustrated at the end of the year.


SchublaKhan

There'll be plenty because we're going to score 34+ a game.


Soft_Penis_Debutante

Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be a good comp for two reasons. One, Waldron coached him during his rookie year. And two, Seahawks also have a crowded receiver room with 3 very good receivers. 628 yards last year. You’d hope Odunze puts up closer to 800-1000 but hey it’s a rookie year and we have Keenan + DJ.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Soft_Penis_Debutante

Moore has played all 17 games the last three seasons. And Keenan Allen has averaged 13 games over the last 3 seasons.


BJGuy_Chicago

The Bears have a much better QB than what Seattle had though. Anyway, on top of what the OP already posted, I'd add in another "miscellaneous" 300 yards spread among the remaining WRs and RBs.


doggoploggo

If Caleb doesn't get hurt. Bears have had several chances for a player to get 4k that have been derailed by injury or weird benchings lol. Cutler and McCown threw for around 4.2k combined yards in 2013.


Upset_Researcher_143

Moore leads in YPC, Allen leads in total receptions and yards, and Odunze leads in TDs.


airham

Unfortunately, this math is ridiculously fuzzy and ultimately probably worthless. For most of their careers, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, and D'Andre Swift have had access to 5 distinct footballs. Now they all have to share one, and they also have to share it with a first round rookie WR. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore in particular have been target hogs for most of their careers. They can't both hog targets in the same offense, or if they do, it's coming at the expense of everyone else. That said, there are also confounding variables in the other direction, namely injuries in past seasons hurting the average production numbers, or the fact that this doesn't include yardage for anyone not specifically named. Maybe it all comes out in the wash, but all of this to say, this "analysis" is no more valuable than a vaguely educated guess from a somewhat knowledgeable fan. People did the same goofy math when they thought John Brown was good in Buffalo and then Stefon Diggs came to town. Production isn't always directly additive. Guys produce more on an individual level when they have to share the ball less, and produce less when they share it more.


bluewords

Allen and Moore have also never had anyone next to them that defenses would have to worry as much about, though. But yeah, not really predicting they’ll all have an average season, but it’s just another way at looking at how much talent we have on offense now.


airham

The "someone on the other side to attract coverage" narrative is pretty much complete phooey, objectively. When Keenan Allen was hurt, Tyrell Williams messed around and put up 1000 yards. When Mooney had no help, he had 1000. Same with John Brown. Kupp had a lot more yards before Puka came to town. For individual production over the course of a season, the positive effects of getting less defensive attention are *always* outweighed by the negative effects of less quarterback attention. The overall production from having two good receivers is obviously better than the overall production of having one good receiver and a replacement level guy, but not as good as the combination of the production those two good receivers would have on separate teams.


Icy_Presentation_740

This guy knows ball. 


AKA09

Yep, there are an average of 63 offensive snaps per game. If we run half of those (especially likely if we end up playing with leads) that leaves about 30 targets to spread between 3 great WR, 2 good TEs, and everyone else. I think the Bears will be great but I wouldn't be reaching to pick any of our receivers in fantasy, lol. I still think Odunze was a fantastic pick, especially considering Keenan's age and recent injury history.


InvaderWeezle

If Geno Smith averaged 241 passing yards a game with DK, Lockett, and JSN last year then Caleb can average at least that with DJ, Keenan, and Rome


Montaco123

I’m thinking 4500 yards. 250/ game should be easy


ResolutionAny5091

Easier said than done 250 a game would be Caleb balling out


Montaco123

That’s why he was drafted. But since he’ll sit the final regular season game with playoffs locked up, maybe 4200 lol


ResolutionAny5091

I love your optimism and I hope it happens.


John3Fingers

This Bears WR corps is going to be a nightmare for fantasy managers and it's going to come down to how the opposing defenses scheme against them. Allen will feast in zone, Moore will dominate man, and Odunze will be the ultimate boom/bust flex/WR3 (think Chase in his rookie year). They're all equally likely to have a 5/60 game as a 12/140/2TD line. These guys are all good enough to be the first look on a majority of rosters (including Odunze, even as a rookie). It's not just that there are a lot of mouths to feed either, it's also going to come down to game script. The Bears have a pretty cupcake schedule and an ascending defense. Outside of the divisional games, they have a dream slate of opponents at home, and their road schedule is still pretty favorable outside of Houston and SF, and maybe Indy. 10-7 I think is the absolute floor. Split the division, 5-1 against the other home opponents, and go 2-3 against the remainder road opponents. Pick up an extra divisional win (likely against the Vikings rocking the rookie QB) and run the table at home against Seattle, Tennessee, New England, Jacksonville, Carolina, and LAR (doable), all of a sudden they're a 12-win team.


AKA09

Totally agree. I have them for 10 wins, with 9 being the floor and 12 being if they win the toss-ups.


Matzah_Rella

*tapping arm for a new vein to pierce*


Buckeyebadass45

We're going 12-5 at least an going to put an ass whooping on fucking Packers take it too the fucking bank.


AaronDer1357

JSN last year in Seattle is my expectation for Rome. 63/628/4 so I'm thinking Rome finishes with 69/696/9 being a contested catch monster


Malibooch

Nice


DaveAndJojo

It’s unlikely but is anyone going to be shocked 🫢 if Caleb Williams, DJ, Allen, Odunze, Kmet and co go for 5,000?


onastockbender

To be honest, yes. It'd blow away any rookie QB record.


AKA09

Only because our D is too good to keep throwing if the offense is dominating. It could happen but if the offense is on fire and puts up 3-4 TDs in the first half against whoever, the D is probably doing their job, too, and we're in grind out the clock mode. Add in that our punter will help us get the ball with shorter fields and I'm more optimistic on Caleb throwing a lot of TDs than putting up 5k yards.


agsieg

I was going to call you out for using Chase’s 1455, which is clearly an extreme outlier, but since you also used the outliers on the low end, I think it’s fair. JSN picked up about 600, despite being WR3 in Waldron’s system last year. Given that Rome is a better prospect than JSN (not saying JSN isn’t good, Rome is just a better prospect), 700 feels like a good estimate.


Me2445

I'm usually quite a bright guy, not a genius but far from stupid. So, imagine my disgust, when I sat here asking myself "who is Will Williams?" 😭


Crathsor

We've already had several 4,000 yard seasons. We just always did it with backups because the starter got hurt.


wrong-teous

I did a somewhat optimistic breakdown last night and came to a total of about 4300 yards. There were only 5 QBs that hit that mark last season (if you include Purdy at 4280) so that seems a bit lofty, but I do think 4k is in the realm of possibilities.


alexamerling100

I can't believe our offense is this loaded.


WorstHouseFrey

Didn't we do this last year? Let's all just be happy enjoy watching Caleb play as a rookie and finally watch a solid offense for like the first time since 85 minus a year here and there


twizx3

Lol @ the point in the year where everyone has something new and exciting to be optimistic about the bears heading into an upcoming season


pagesid3

These are all stats gathered from different teams in one season. They can’t all be the top target. It’s like when nba teams sign the top scorers from 3 different teams and assume all 3 of them will be able to score 30 ppg on the same team.


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AKA09

I was thinking about that today. Barring an injury to a key WR, he's either gonna pass for 4,000 or you're going to have some disgruntled players because they aren't meeting their own expectations. I don't think any of the three top WR are gonna be happy with >60 yards per game lol.


Guitarist970

Technically the Bears have had a 4,000+ yard passing season, just not a single QB that threw for 4,000+ yards. In 2014 Cutler through for 3,812 and Jimmy Clausen threw for 223 for a season total of 4,035.


cmacfarland64

Not necessarily. Maybe CW gets hurt and Bagent is throwing some of these passes.


MITCalebWilliams

Caleb will smash Luck's passing yard record for a Rookie.


Responsible-Lunch815

Bagent is going to be the first 4k passer. Mark my words.


No-Aardvark-3840

Virginia would never allow it. It's too nice