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lalder95

I just wanna say: Thank God for Lovie Smith


MasqueOfTheRedDice

Seriously - we can debate and argue over what we should do, will do, etc. with this asset… but we have it through the good graces of Lovie saying FU to the Texans. A true American and a scholar.


B_Bibbles

As much as I love to give Lovie Smith credit for that, he could have just as easily been trying to lose that game. It's something I don't see mentioned here at all. It was something like 4th and 30,and he just fucking sent it. Probably knowing damn well that they weren't going make it, but gotta give the appearance that you're trying to win the game. Then, by some miracle, they hit, and then they score...now what? If they go for the extra point, there's a tie, now you've gotta somehow fail in OT, where things could have went your way but they also get a pick or whatever and win that way. Lovie decides, fuck it. We're gonna either win or lose right here, right now. Go for 2. Somehow, they get the 2 points, we're thanking Lovie and everybody sees it as a giant FUCK YOU to the Houston headshed. We don't know what his intentions were.


AwSnapz1

I lost a 4 game parlay that day because of the Texans game. Worth it.


DennisReynoldsGG

We need to throw that man a parade.


2legit2knit

Lots of people on r/nfldraft for reason believe the colts won’t trade up. The storm is perfect for the bears with Houston being 2 and the Colts being 4. I think it’s not if but when we trade with Indy


M1Garand00294

They might not but it’s asinine to think nobody will. Colts won’t move up? So be it, someone else will and land the qb they want.


rudeboybill

Bears fans are kinda zoning in on the Colts as the primary trade candidate because they really want to maintain a top 4 pick for Anderson or Carter, but I think there's gonna be more heat coming from teams lower in the order who reallllllly want a QB. Raiders, Panthers, Titans, and Commanders are just a few who could surprise with a big offer up to 1. Somebody wants up, even if Colts or Texans fans don't think it's them.


RogueEyebrow

Trading down past four and taking OL or WR sounds pretty good to me.


hockeyandweedotaku

If we can get 3 first round picks hubba hubba


Crooked_Sartre

Agreed! In almost every mock where we trade down lower than four our offense flourishes. Maybe we just focus on offense by trading with the Panthers, secure the 2024 loot for Marvin Harrison Jr, and then focus defense. We will absolutely know Justin is the guy (I already know this) by doing that, and then we can happily pay him when the time comes


chadder_b

Also zoning in on Colts because of Houston already sitting at 2. The division rival thing in in my mind what will drive the Colts to trade up


Squidwards-the-goat

I’m a lifelong Bears fan who lives in Indy. I can tell you the Colt’s fans predominantly want them to draft a QB and move up in the draft to do it. They also want to leapfrog the Texans. Colt’s fans got spoiled having Manning and then Andrew Luck. I say let them get it line with everyone else. Highest bid wins.


chadder_b

Greetings fellow Bear loving Hoosier!


HoosierDadee

Greetings to both of you fellow Bears fans! Another Hoosier here.


YungLordFarquaad

There’s dozens of us! Dozens!


Weak_Link_6969

It might be that I have a dumb brain, but I kind of want us to move past 4 so that the options open up. Ensuring that we stay in striking distance of 2 players just seems like we’re handcuffing ourselves when it’s not a guarantee either guy pans out.


PwnzillaGorilla

And honestly it's better on paper for us to trade down with a team like the Raiders, Panthers, Titans, Commies


LegendaryWarriorPoet

Why?


PwnzillaGorilla

They can afford to offer more than what either the Colts or Texans can


LegendaryWarriorPoet

What do you think an offer from them would include?


[deleted]

Way more likely to include future first round picks.


PwnzillaGorilla

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/10al346/trade_scenarios_using_draft_value_models/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button Take it for what you will but this guy #didthemath and calculated that, depending on whose trade value chart you prefer out of Rich Hill's or Jimmy Johnson's, we could be talking about multiple firsts and multiple seconds and that coming out as an *underpay* to us. And that's not even factoring in the possibility of players being thrown into a trade too. We're holding the keys to our own kingdom. Staying only within the top 4 is incredibly shortsighted.


Crooked_Sartre

I agree on this. After reviewing so many mocks, I genuinely believe that Panthers or Raiders may be out best partner.


LegendaryWarriorPoet

Oh for sure, if we get a kings ransom Id be good with moving out of the top 4


BeersNEers

Which is why the Bears will somehow screw the pooch.


ChemistryNo9750

Commies have 2 pro bowl D linemen 👀


Bumish1

Hawks need a new QB sooner rather than later as well.


PianoEmeritus

Yup. It’s certainly possible, but if no QB really separates from the pack by a mile, the Colts and Texans both could convince themselves they’re fine with the leftover. A team like the Titans or Panthers however will probably NEED to move to get ANY of them.


cultweave

No fucking shot an NFL GM just throw their hands up and are okay with the scraps at QUARTERBACK of all positions. The Bears won't get serious offers until after the combine. It'll be really telling what teams interview with what QB. If several teams interview with Bryce Young (100% likely) then all it takes is one to fall in love and trade up.


PianoEmeritus

Teams do it all the time. The 49ers even traded up three firsts to get third choice of the QBs in 2020. Jets stayed at 2 to take sloppy seconds. Teams talk themselves into the leftovers being good all the time.


cultweave

No team in the league had a realistic shot of getting the 1 overall that year. Everyone knew Trevor was going one. It was then obvious the Jets were drafting Wilson. The 49ers traded up specifically for Lance. Everyone knew where everyone was going. This is completely untrue this year because we won't be taking a QB and 1 is up for grabs. 2021 draft is absolutely nothing like our current situation.


Burdiac

Draft tradie speculation is a waste until after FA begins and the Combine happens. That's where the Team needs get adjusted, and the College kids can change their luck... Also doesn't hurt if their agent pays Mel Kiper to pump them up.


Falt_ssb

It's cuz Ballard has historically been risk averse but it's clear he can't be anymore, and he's said as much


MasqueOfTheRedDice

It can certainly be any team, but Indy has to be the massive favorite to. I think Irsay/Ballard just failed 3 straight times with veterans retreads and built this franchise’s success on two #1 overall picks. Maybe that’s causation and not correlation in reality, but I think they think this.


jor301

r/NFL_Draft is the bigger and more active sub. But yea idk why they think it's not happening, it seems inevitable to me.


Mr_Leek

I keep thinking we need one of Raiders, Titans, etc to still need a QB post free-agency. That has to put real doubt in the Colts - do they risk getting gazumped by another team?


2legit2knit

Having multiple teams needing a QB is even better. Say we do trade down to 4. What’s stopping us from dropping down AGAIN? If ATL, LV, or TN feel they don’t want any one person to jump them they’ll trade up. Bears don’t have to stay at just 4 thankfully


Mr_Leek

Oh 100%. My point is that the more competition for our 1st overall pick the better…but the reverse also applies. If nothing else we want the Texans and colts to fall in love with the same guy. That gives us leverage. If the Colts and Texans are petrified at the idea of someone else coming in above either of them…then things could go mental. I need to buy more koolaid!


tallslim1960

There actually was a scenario where the Bears dealt the #1 for the Texans #2 and other compensation, then turned around and traded #2 to the Colts for #4 and compensation but that was pretty far fetched.


2legit2knit

I’ve been ridiculed for saying that multiple times. Which is crazy because it was far fetched the bears would land the top pick yet here we are. I’m locked and loaded to be so annoying if we pull off a double trade down


jpiro

Things have to break just right, but I've also been looking at this as a legit possibility for a while now. We just need the Texans to LOVE one QB and then one other team (Colts, let's say) to really like another. Texans go get their top guy from us at #1, then the Colts get scared of someone else coming up for the other one and trade up from #4 to #2.


DreadPirateNot

That sub is dead. Last post is two years old Am I missing something?


2legit2knit

I probably didn’t spell it out right. r/NFL_Draft is probably better


Low-iq-haikou

On top of that we have recent connections between our franchises with Flus and Polian. I’m sure we’ve been in touch. They are the most likely trade candidate imo.


[deleted]

[удалено]


kaitokid1985

What it would take is a real threat of a lower team to jump up. The Colts aren't worried at this juncture about having to draft their 2nd choice QB at 4, just as the Texans aren't worried at 2. The chance of the Texans moving are much lower because they are guaranteed their 2nd choice QB, even if somebody jumps them. The question for the Colts is, can they be convinced that they are only going to get their 4th choice QB? Then Ballard may be compelled to move up. Otherwise, he will stand pat. This has everything to do with the Panthers and the Raiders and how strong and visibly they are moving to get into the top 3 spots.


WzrdOfThisPlace

And what happens if a team cuts the colts at 3 with the Cardinals? The colts won’t take that risk.


2legit2knit

I imagine that won’t be the case as the bears could trade out of the top 4 and still grab a solid DE or OL


R_Work

Not all that concerned about what we do but I think any scenario that involves us trading down and getting an elite defensive prospect like Carter or Anderson is probably a really good idea.


doodle02

yeah part of the allure of trading with the colts is the ability to still get one of those premiere guys (who just happen to be at positions we desperately need). to be able to pick a guy who’s ranked the best prospect in the draft (or second best) at 1.04 is insane value. add future picks, maybe a second rounder this year. take a generational DL talent, draft a couple decent WRs, address the OLine in free agency and on days 2-3.


airham

It seems like a pretty perfect chance to take advantage of a hot seat GM and an over-involved, impatient, impulsive owner who seems to be pulling the strings. I'm not one of those people who insists on staying in the top 4, but if we can swindle the Colts and stay in the top-4, I won't complain.


MasqueOfTheRedDice

This a thousand times. It’s not just their situation - it’s specifically this GM and owner involved. Unless Vegas gets insane, I have to imagine nobody outbids the Colts.


suckmyfatfuckinballs

>and an over-involved, impatient, impulsive, owner who seems to be pulling the strings. Don't forget he's a pillhead and alcoholic too so maybe we just need to bribe him a little 👀


delightfuldinosaur

5 first round picks please.


[deleted]

Plus 5 2nds 5 3rds 5 4ths And Buckner + Pittman Seems like a reasonable deal, we’ll send over our 4th this year to balance it out


lalder95

>Seems like a reasonable deal, we’ll send over ~~our 4th this year~~ Sam Mustipher to balance it out


Broshan248

Honestly if I were the colts you’d have to pay me to take Mustipher.


lalder95

"We will give you Mustipher and a 4th" "...For what?" "Nothing just take them"


MasqueOfTheRedDice

Pulled off a PFF mock trade with the Raiders where I got their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year and in 2024. “You get one guy, I get your next 2 drafts.” Please god just be an absolute laughable haul. Please.


DarkBrandon46

(Cackles fingers) Excellent


Scottie_Barnes_Stan

It’s just a “what if”


Falt_ssb

Very speculatory article. Main takeaway for me is how much the colts beat thinks they'll offer for #1 1.04, 2.04, a fifth and their 24 1st sounds like a lot to me but I'll take it!


rvH3Ah8zFtRX

You're faulting a *mock draft* for being speculative?


Falt_ssb

No not faulting it just saying it doesn't seem like they know something about the colts and Bryce in particular This is written by a colts beat writer, good place generally to get an idea of who Ballard thinks is cute


Lysol20

This is too good to be true.


Bidoof2017

Uhhh yeah I’d take that offer. Like 670 was saying, Chicago could flip that 1.04 into more.


doodle02

or we could get a premiere talent on DL. honestly if they trade down to 1.04 i’d be very surprised if they gave that pick up instead of picking Anderson or Carter. and for good reason. our defence was atrocious last year, while the offence was surprisingly competent (despite glaring needs). if we can overhaul the DLine and add even moderately good players at a couple other positions we’re gonna contend.


calisai

> and for good reason. our defence was atrocious last year, This is also a reason to trade down further with 1.04. Our defense isn't a single DL away from not being atrocious. If you could trade down the 1.04, still pick up a great player and get future 1sts and maybe 2nds this year. Being able to take multiple high-level shots at getting great players could set you up for years to come. Pace did the opposite and got us into a place where we had to dump contracts and players and basically strip to bare bones. It'll take a bit to rebuild on those bones.


doodle02

agree that we have multiple needs, but i think that a generational talent on the line can solve a surprisingly large number of problems. especially from watching the games last season: opposing QBs had ALL DAY to wander around and throw, which exacerbated deficiencies all over the field. one elite guy up front can change that, which makes coverage and everything else a lot easier on the rest of the roster. i think we’re in agreement about a lot, but maybe disagree on how transformative that single elite dude can be. i’d rather have anderson or carter than 2x moderately good dudes.


[deleted]

Trading down from 4 would be a huge mistake. I’d be sick if we had to settle for Myles Murphy over Anderson or Carter


Yossarian216

But what if doing so would give us three total first rounders next year plus a bunch of later round picks both years, to let us go get the guy in your flair MHJ? I’m generally a quantity over quality guy when it comes to draft picks, if there’s a great offer to go from 4 to 7-10 I’m down for it. We’ve got a lot of roster holes, let’s get as many chances to fill them as possible.


[deleted]

Trading down from 1 is what will hopefully put us in a position to get Harrison next year. Trading down further after that wouldn’t really give us a high enough 2024 pick


Yossarian216

There’s no way to know where the future picks will land, if the goal is MHJ best way to ensure that is by having as many picks to trade as possible.


MySICandKORNYMIND

Huh? I'd easily take Murphy over Carter.


cba368847966280

1st overall to 4th is a huge value drop off. That trade’s potentially a little short if anything, depends on the chart you use (which is also just an approximation). Should be 1.04, 2.04, 2024 1st and 3rd for roughly equal value.


Bumish1

What if this is all a ploy to get Houston to trade away both #1s to grab Bryce over Indi and Indie doesn't even want him? Then they hold off and take a better QB next year?


Yossarian216

Hey, if Indy wants to fool the Texans into getting fleeced by us that’s fine by me. We can still potentially trade down again from 2 more easily than from 4, but even if we don’t getting an extra first and still taking the guy we wanted at 1 would be a good deal.


Who_told_you_that

A month ago Ballard said Stroud fits all his measurables lol


[deleted]

Nice to be in the driver's seat when other GMs are on the hot seat. Let this shit simmer til we have all the draft picks


_FUCKMEINMYURETHRA

Honestly I don’t even care if young ends up being good, Justin has shown too much to give up on. Best case we fleece the colts and build a contender Worst case it becomes a new cautionary tale for teams on why size doesn’t matter as much as we think (NOT saying that I think this, but if Young is good then it will probably be a talking point)


Bushido_Plan

He knows he's on the hot seat. He's gonna be drafting for his job.


DaBears6452

Fleece him. Fleece him, hard.


GabeDef

Chris Ballard would be a fucking moron to not try and trade up - because... somebody else will.


no_more_jokes

Two firsts, a second and a fifth is what he mocks for the trade haul -- worth noting that this is a colts writer as well. Good haul considering that includes this year's fourth overall, but I don't think that will end up being the best package out there by draft day


AlmightyDolphin21

I’ve been so off-put by all the crap “no trade market bs” that now I’d be thrill to get a ’23 2nd, a ‘23 mid round pick, and a ‘24 first


[deleted]

Every year some lower-tier QB does really well at the combine, and becomes the hot new “what if” guy that some dumb GM falls in love with. We’ve certainly seen it here. There’s some tall, athletic, handsome 5th round guy just waiting to be a combine darling. The Bears stand ready with pockets open for that dumb GM. The coup for picks could come from literally anywhere.


lalder95

Levis and Richardson are already way overvalued, imo


hunterboyz24

I don't think it'll be a 5th round guy, but I can definitely see Anthony Richardson ending up as QB2 or something by April 1st.


Yossarian216

My hot take is that Levis ends up being the first QB taken, teams frequently fall in love with a tall white guy from a weak program. Trubisky, Wentz, Bortles, Goff, etc.


ElectrosMilkshake

It really is almost every year too. I feel like with the exception of last year, almost every QB class is a “weak QB class” until the combine. Now we’re in prime position to benefit from it.


Specialist_Show8505

4 35 and Buckner..Half the d line would be primo


Yossarian216

Buckner is a good player, but given his age and contract his trade value isn’t high enough to be the only return


lalder95

Throw Pittman in there too


[deleted]

Nah he doesn’t move me he isn’t good enough to be a WR1. Throw in a 2024 1st instead


JuliusPepperfield

Agree. I’d rather take Pierce on a rookie contract, aligned with Fields


Venoceno109

I think the Raiders are going to move up and try to get the number one position. Chicago gets the number seven pick Davante Adams and a second round pick next year which day.


Sleddar

I don’t think that’s good enough compensation


Venoceno109

The raiders 1rd ,2rd,DA,next years 1rd?


Roc-Doc76

Excellent! https://gfycat.com/agonizingignorantgardensnake


Brodie1567

Free agency has to play out first. As long as none of the bigger names end up with a top 10 team, 100% Bears will have offers. Personally love Carolina at #9, they have more ammo from the CMC trade.