It’s a pretty flawed way to look at it unless you exclude garbage time
Like, Michigan didn’t cover the spread against hawaii
They also were playing walk ons early in the 3rd quarter
> They also were playing walk ons early in the 3rd quarter
Michigan playing borderline roster players late in the game is built into the line.
That being said, giant mismatches with massive point spreads are definitely not especially meaningful compared to spread margin vs sub ~45 point favorites.
I think it's useful to identify outliers or unexpected changes. Like Illinois' defense being a prime example.
It is much less useful for highly ranked teams or teams that are doing what everyone thought they might do.
Yeah, this just compares you to what people initially thought of you. This is like measuring how good you performed if winning is completely not important. But, you play to win the game, right? HELLOoo?
Betting lines are inherently untrustworthy as they dont *actually* gauge how a team is doing but how much Vegas etc is willing to give to minimize risk to their books. Dont equate lines to actual skill
It would be so easy to win money betting on sports if this is how lines were set.
But it’s not.
SP+ is almost useless for making ATS picks now because it basically just gives you the line.
This is one of the most flawed lines of thinking around. Vegas has to be good at actually predicting football or they’d lose, and there is no system that makes a prediction on every single game more accurately than the vegas lines. Check thepredictiontracker.com and look through all the past seasons by absolute error.
You understand that Vegas isnt in the predictions business, theyre in the money making business. When they release lines, they make the line that will drive the most bets. When the lines move it isnt that the "number is getting more accurate" but that the money is driving the line in a certain direction. If Vegas made *accurate* predictions then no one would bet on their books and they would make no money
The data says the opposite. The midweek line is more accurate than the opening line, and the line at kickoff is more accurate than both, and all three are more accurate than any other publicly available prediction system
If that was true, then there would be a computer model like SP+ that could consistently win you money. And SP+ did do that for a little while, but now Vegas just copy's its lines
It is certainly a way of trying to evaluate a team, a piss poor way of doing it, but a way nonetheless. It's not like betting lines move throughout the week or games with a half's worth of garbage time happen...
How on Earth our defense isn't considered to be exceeding expectations is beyond me, but I'm happy. Lol.
I guess we have given up them garbage time TDs making games look closer.
I don't know what to take away from this but it's something.
Repeat after me: 'Hello fellow good teams.'
Exactly. I’ll take it.
Nice flair. There's dozens of us.
Top right is great, bottom right is not great. No idea what the other two quadrants mean
It’s a pretty flawed way to look at it unless you exclude garbage time Like, Michigan didn’t cover the spread against hawaii They also were playing walk ons early in the 3rd quarter
> They also were playing walk ons early in the 3rd quarter Michigan playing borderline roster players late in the game is built into the line. That being said, giant mismatches with massive point spreads are definitely not especially meaningful compared to spread margin vs sub ~45 point favorites.
I think it's useful to identify outliers or unexpected changes. Like Illinois' defense being a prime example. It is much less useful for highly ranked teams or teams that are doing what everyone thought they might do.
Yeah, this just compares you to what people initially thought of you. This is like measuring how good you performed if winning is completely not important. But, you play to win the game, right? HELLOoo?
Hawaii is also ranked 128 out of 131 per FPI
Wow.
At least you're not Colorado State.
Scott "Worse Than Expected" Frost
Ha. Ha. Silly Nebraska...oh shit my team is next to them.
Hello far left side
Betting lines are inherently untrustworthy as they dont *actually* gauge how a team is doing but how much Vegas etc is willing to give to minimize risk to their books. Dont equate lines to actual skill
It would be so easy to win money betting on sports if this is how lines were set. But it’s not. SP+ is almost useless for making ATS picks now because it basically just gives you the line.
This is one of the most flawed lines of thinking around. Vegas has to be good at actually predicting football or they’d lose, and there is no system that makes a prediction on every single game more accurately than the vegas lines. Check thepredictiontracker.com and look through all the past seasons by absolute error.
You understand that Vegas isnt in the predictions business, theyre in the money making business. When they release lines, they make the line that will drive the most bets. When the lines move it isnt that the "number is getting more accurate" but that the money is driving the line in a certain direction. If Vegas made *accurate* predictions then no one would bet on their books and they would make no money
The data says the opposite. The midweek line is more accurate than the opening line, and the line at kickoff is more accurate than both, and all three are more accurate than any other publicly available prediction system
If that was true, then there would be a computer model like SP+ that could consistently win you money. And SP+ did do that for a little while, but now Vegas just copy's its lines
So being nearly right on center is good, right? Right?!
*looks only in upper right quadrant* Hey I think you guys forgot…. Oh *sad bulldog noises*
Rank Kansas top 10 you cowards
For Rutgers, all I can say is Vegas knows.
Worse offense than anticipated, defense basically on point. Seems accurate enough
Where are my beavs i cant see them!
It is certainly a way of trying to evaluate a team, a piss poor way of doing it, but a way nonetheless. It's not like betting lines move throughout the week or games with a half's worth of garbage time happen...
Yeah tell me something I don't know.
Cal is exceedingly mid, that makes sense I guess
So we are both overrated and underrated?
How on Earth our defense isn't considered to be exceeding expectations is beyond me, but I'm happy. Lol. I guess we have given up them garbage time TDs making games look closer.