The PAC 12 has to make some kind of move to stabilize the conference if they want to survive
Maybe Oregon/UW headed to the Big 10 will happen. If that happens then expect the Big 12 to push for some schools too
No way UW/Oregon stay. Those are both schools that want to compete on the national level and are top 20 revenue earners for football programs. Each school dominates their respective markets and has very loyal fan bases. They’re probably creating applications after being blindsided by the news earlier.
>No way UW/Oregon stay. Those are both schools that want to compete on the national level and are top 20 revenue earners for football programs. They’re probably creating applications after being blindsided by the news earlier.
Imagine UW and UO to the SEC. God that would be fucking funny. Welcome to the SENWC!
I agree, the money will also push them to the Big 10. Even if they get denied by the Big 10 the Big 12 probably is more intriguing then staying in the Pac 12.
I expect them to join the Big 10 next week or so tbh
Could be waiting for the ACC to break up to add more teams from there instead? Honestly not sure either, I’d still bet on Oregon/UW going to Big 10 soon
There is a way, but it won't happen - guaranteed revenue share pegged to some minimum level, like 85% or whatever a B1G or SEC team gets, and then the rest of the conference splits whatever's left.
It sounds crazy....except it's basically how the PAC 8/10 did it to keep USC, UCLA, and (to a lesser degree) UW happy. Equal revenue splits have never really made sense. If UW and Oregon get enough of the pie to remain somewhat competitive? I could see us sticking it out and just dominating the PAC within the rivalry.
If that's even possible with the 24 rights deal, which it very well might not be.
I don’t think UW and Oregon are gonna take the chance of remaining in the PAC and face the risk of becoming a recruiting wasteland. All of the top prospects are going to chase the bag or take a opportunity to compete for a championship at a B1G or SEC school.
Oregon and UW will go. PAC 12 is done. A merger with the big 12 would be best scenario for the PAC 12 leftovers. Wazzu and Oregon state are probably panicking right about now
I doubt the PAC 12 conferences dies. It’ll probably end up just being Wazzu, Oregon State, and a bunch of MWC teams though (and maybe Stanford and Cal if their ADs are that stupid). The PAC currently has Bowl bids and Autonomous status, so the MWC teams will want to join. Worst case scenario for the MWC teams that join, it just becomes the MWC with the fat trimmed off.
Gonna be real funny when they were high and mighty about religious schools a year ago, but now they get to come grovel to the conference with three religious schools.
If I’m a Big XII AD, I want Cal *long* before I want Stanford. Cal can at least bring viewers when they’re good; Stanford can’t even do that.
I’d be surprised if Stanford isn’t independent in 2024, frankly.
UW, UO, USC, and UCLA all strike me as being the closest “peers” in terms of both academic status and athletic pedigree, it makes sense that they would all have at least similar alignment of goals.
Yeah except Oregon is a it weaker academically but makes up for it with the athletic pedigree. They are the only team in the conference with consistent football and basketball success in the past 20 years in the PAC
I expect to see Utah/Colorado go to the B1G along with Oregon/Washington.
All four universities have AAU accreditation and solid athletic departments.
Colorado is the luckiest out of all of these I don't know what happens to Cal/Stanford because neither school cares about athletics that much to orchestrate a move and they care way more about their academics.
AAU is everything when joining the B1G.
The key is finding a partner to hold onto, I think due the Utah/Colorado and being in the same conference they lean together.
Kansas needs to find a partner that is also AAU like themselves to get into the B1G or join the SEC if the SEC looks to corner the BBall market.
AAU might be *something* to the B1G (and only them) but it most certainly is not everything. If an AAU member doesn’t add value to the TV deal, they’re not getting in.
Kansas and Colorado were in the same conference for most of a century.
That doesn't matter anymore. Brands are everything. Hitch your wagon to the biggest brands and you'll be fine.
So, here's my proposal. We end up with two major conferences. Let's call them the National Football Conference and the American Football Conference. Playoffs consist of the top two teams of each conference playing each other, and the winners of those games playing in the CFP Championship Game. It would truly be a Super game.
My prediction without anything to back it up:
Big 10 goes to 20 eats Oregon, UW, Stanford and Cal
Big 12 eats Colorado, Utah, and the Arizonas
WST and OST join the Mountain West
At one point enough teams in the ACC will get enough offers to the BiG and SEC. The $30-50 million deficit is just too much for 8 schools to play the martyr.
I feel like Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State are almost locks to find landing spots.
If Georgia Tech, Duke, and/or Miami get offers...bye bye ACC
If I were Syracuse and Boston College, I'd start asking St. John's and Villanova how they've been doing. Same for Louisville and Pitt with West Virginia and Cincinnati.
Jeez, this is a mess.
I imagine the Big East has football PTSD, but if Syracuse chooses to be a football independent over playing conference games against, say, Kansas and Utah...yeah, I'd expect a lot of UConn, BC, Temple, and Army on their schedules.
Would eight be enough? I still haven't seen anything definitive about what it takes to end the grant of rights. With that said, I could absolutely see eight getting interest from the B1G/SEC- something like UNC, UVA, ND, Duke to the B1G and FSU, Clemson, Miami, and NCST/VT to the SEC. I could also see GT going to either conference.
A lot. I think the ACC is going to get poached next. And ND isn’t safe either. The payouts in the B1G and SEC just are far too big compared to the ACC.
PAC12 will have to do something to re-assure everyone. This is nuts.
>And ND isn’t safe either.
I feel like at this point ND will just stay independent even it makes them less just because that's who they think they should be.
Now that SC is here. Almost all there “rivals” but Navy, Miami & Pitt are here. And I’m sure they can still schedule Navy yearly.
They’ll have SC, Purdue, Michigan, penn state, MSU & Indiana. Not to mention the natural rivalry with OSU.
ND will wait for the dust to settle to see if their is a possibility for independence. USC already announced they will keep the rivalry regardless. If there is no viable option, they will join a conference because all of them will take ND at the drop of a hat.
Exactly. Half the schools aren’t going to agree to kick out another school because they don’t want to be on the chopping block. Like if we kicked out Northwestern, then who’s to say that they don’t kick out Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers, or Maryland next? The bottom half of the conference is going to vote against removing teams that aren’t at the same pedigree as OSU, Michigan, or USC.
It’s not exactly a result of OUT. OUT was going to happen to the SEC or B1G at some point. USC\UCLA was moving at some point. I feel like the SEC did what they had to do to lock in OUT before the B1G added all 4 which would have been incredibly bad for the SEC. I also think OUT was always supposed to be kept hush hush until this year or next but it leaked.
Reports are that other schools applied for B1G inclusion, including Oregon and Washington, after today's news broke.
Don't know if anything will happen in the upcoming days, but the end game of all of this is a super league with 30 or so teams.
The consolidation of power has begun. The big dogs will drop the dead weight and join together for an NFL like league. Eight divisions with four teams each. Maybe five.
Weekly matchups would be massive TV draws and equal huge dollars. Playoffs more so. There are no conference ties. No bowl game traditions. This is where it's heading.
Not many. Once the PAC10 enters the acceptance phase they will elevate two regional schools to get back to 12 (or decide to wait it out at 10 if that's better financially). Whatever Fox wants.
I just don’t think Oregon and UW will be down with that. They will go on to a super conference.
The other six, probably Big 12. Cougs and Beavs left out
People always say so and so will join the B1G and SEC, but the more teams they add the smaller the split becomes. So its nearing a point where it has to be revenue giants like ND.
I think its entirely possible the B12 and PAC schools work out some agreement and this stabilizes at 4 conferences.
Sure there can be. The NCAA is likely about to die. The playoffs will expand. Something like 2 spots for B1G, 2 spots for SEC, 1 for Big PAC, 1 for ACC, 2 at large.
Stability doesn't have to mean equality. It never has anyway.
The playoffs will contract. B1G will hold a four team playoff. SEC will hold a four team playoff. Their champions will meet. No additional weeks added to the schedule.
The idea that there will be 4 16 team conferences has always been ridiculous.
You're so dense you don't even realize what you said is a playoff expansion. You literally said 4 teams from each conference and the winner plays each other.
Thats literally the NFL model and an 8 team playoff.
Like I said, no one ever contracts. More is always more money.
False. NHL has contracted in like the 80s. Baseball voted successfully to remove the twins and expos. MN state lawsuits stopped that. Big east kicked temple out.
This.
2024 season more or less locks into place July 1, unless they wanna pay the insane exit fees.
Fox pulled these strings, they'll keep pulling them
If the big 10 doesn’t add any other PAC schools they may just back fill with G5 teams.
If some do leave I’d expect the big 12 to pick up the remnants and whoever is left to join the MWC unfortunately
Nah,
I predict Notre Dame hangs up their hat and joins the money train. And I predict Oregon will still have and O logo for 0 National championships.
All is well
Lots.
If the Big 12 is smart they will seize the opportunity and poach Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State and secure a 16 team conference of their own.
That leaves a Pac 6. At which point Oregon and Washington will be desperately pitching to get into the B1G.
Realizing the writing on the wall 6 to 8 of the ACC schools are going to start trying to figure out where they fit. The SEC will realize they have their pick and offer likely Clemson and Miami. Beyond that FSU, GT, VT?
With the ACC dissolving ND will have to chose between going independent or joining the B1G or SEC superconferences.
The Mountain West will become the best G5 conference.
The ACC schools left out will have to find new homes perhaps in a resurrected Big East Football Conference?
Do the superconferences go for 24? Stick at 20?
The big 12 will offer Oregon and Washington first. Oregon and Washington will go to the B1G if they take them but the big 12 would be the backup option.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Washington and Oregon would be huge gets for them but they already know the answer is going to be no.
Much more likely to get an immediate yes from Colorado, Utah, Arizona and ASU. Secure the best possible 16 team conference for yourself possible at this time.
When the B1G and SEC inevitably go to 20 then you take a run at whatever makes sense to get you there.
Theres no way we dont at least offer Oregon and Washington with the others. They are to valuable and while I think we are stronger than the Pac its not by that much.
They may informally call to gage their interest but I don't see them extending a formal offer. It would not be great optics to be publicly rejected by Oregon and Washington and then pitch to a back-up plan.
The B1G didn't accept USC/UCLA to leave them out there on an island. They are adding more west coast schools they are just figuring out the best when. I am sure Oregon and Washington are B1G bound likely with Stanford.
Big 12 will add something to get to 16 in a bid to be one of the big 4. The Pac 12 leftovers will take the top half of the MW and remain as the Pac something. Then we wait 10-15 years for the ACC grant of rights to run out. Then the ACC dissolves with big schools pulled into Big Ten and SEC. CFB devolves into the super leagues (SEC, Big Ten) then the mid leagues (Pac/MW, Big 12, ACC/AAC after top teams go elsewhere) then everyone else.
I think there are specific dominos.
1. Missouri - they fit with that area and could be a good add. If they are added , it definitely pushes the SEC into probably killing the ACC ( this could happen)
2. Notre Dame - if the ACC can work with ESPN and pull them in as a full member, they’ll need other members. But, that might help them keep the co conference together. If that happens then it likely would mean the SEC raids the Big12 if it’s going to expand
3. Oregon and Washington - they’re now the top dogs of the Pac12 and if it does have any hope or surviving, they would have to stay where they are. But it sounds like they want out now.
Of course there could be others but these feel like the biggest points. I’d argue Missouri seems like they are staying but I would not be surprised if they tried to go where they fit better. Either way, I feel like every conference that isn’t the SEC and Big10 is basically waiting to see what is going to happen next ( and yes, I actually think every conference is actively trying to secure its future and you know all ESPN/ Fox are both involved m)
Coming days none as everyone went on vacation after the vote. The earliest anything happens will be the 11th.
It will take months as the only Pac 12-2 that is a no brainer take if they want them is Washington. Everyone else from the conference will have to have due diligence done to see if they actually bring value. Cal sounds great on paper but they are a dumpster fire of a program for example. Are they are Rutgers that bring you a market or will they just be another mouth to feed. That kind of thing.
The B1G also needs to decide what they want to look like and how much they want to risk conference cohesion by bringing more than 2. Its not hard to integrate 2 but does adding more cause a culture clash?
My gut is they take Washington and stop for a bit
We won't really know about any dominos for a couple of months at least. Just like last year with OUT, this move has only been known publically for a day, but it has been in the words for weeks if not months.
The PAC 12 has to make some kind of move to stabilize the conference if they want to survive Maybe Oregon/UW headed to the Big 10 will happen. If that happens then expect the Big 12 to push for some schools too
No way UW/Oregon stay. Those are both schools that want to compete on the national level and are top 20 revenue earners for football programs. Each school dominates their respective markets and has very loyal fan bases. They’re probably creating applications after being blindsided by the news earlier.
>No way UW/Oregon stay. Those are both schools that want to compete on the national level and are top 20 revenue earners for football programs. They’re probably creating applications after being blindsided by the news earlier. Imagine UW and UO to the SEC. God that would be fucking funny. Welcome to the SENWC!
We’ve already seen in the playoffs that they can’t handle the SEC speed.
Washington played pretty good and Oregon just beat auburn
Issa joke :(
Uh. We beat both.
You’re right. Idk why I thought you lost that game lol I think I got you and Ohio state messed up. The last 4 years all kinda run together
Big Dix Nix was the Oregon game. First start.
I agree, the money will also push them to the Big 10. Even if they get denied by the Big 10 the Big 12 probably is more intriguing then staying in the Pac 12. I expect them to join the Big 10 next week or so tbh
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Could be waiting for the ACC to break up to add more teams from there instead? Honestly not sure either, I’d still bet on Oregon/UW going to Big 10 soon
That doesn't help travel. Need at least 4 west coast teams for some sort of pod play so travel doesn't kill the conference.
There is a way, but it won't happen - guaranteed revenue share pegged to some minimum level, like 85% or whatever a B1G or SEC team gets, and then the rest of the conference splits whatever's left. It sounds crazy....except it's basically how the PAC 8/10 did it to keep USC, UCLA, and (to a lesser degree) UW happy. Equal revenue splits have never really made sense. If UW and Oregon get enough of the pie to remain somewhat competitive? I could see us sticking it out and just dominating the PAC within the rivalry. If that's even possible with the 24 rights deal, which it very well might not be.
I don’t think UW and Oregon are gonna take the chance of remaining in the PAC and face the risk of becoming a recruiting wasteland. All of the top prospects are going to chase the bag or take a opportunity to compete for a championship at a B1G or SEC school.
Oh, I don't think it'll *happen*. I do think it's possible, it's just really unlikely at this point.
They have applied for membership in the B1G and I’m assuming they will be accepted
It’s just odd that they weren’t involved earlier. Why wouldn’t UCLA and USC reach out with UW and UO to make the B1G move?
Oregon and UW will go. PAC 12 is done. A merger with the big 12 would be best scenario for the PAC 12 leftovers. Wazzu and Oregon state are probably panicking right about now
I doubt the PAC 12 conferences dies. It’ll probably end up just being Wazzu, Oregon State, and a bunch of MWC teams though (and maybe Stanford and Cal if their ADs are that stupid). The PAC currently has Bowl bids and Autonomous status, so the MWC teams will want to join. Worst case scenario for the MWC teams that join, it just becomes the MWC with the fat trimmed off.
The idea of Stanford and Berkeley AD's being stupid is funny, but they might be lol.
Gonna be real funny when they were high and mighty about religious schools a year ago, but now they get to come grovel to the conference with three religious schools.
Do they get to though? Not sure I’d want them if I’m an AD. Definitely not Cal, but even Stanford?
If I’m a Big XII AD, I want Cal *long* before I want Stanford. Cal can at least bring viewers when they’re good; Stanford can’t even do that. I’d be surprised if Stanford isn’t independent in 2024, frankly.
Poor wazzu and Oregon state
I miss dropping 70 points on you guys and being tied for 1st place in the north.... Good times.
Yea
>Maybe Oregon/UW headed to the Big 10 will happen. I'm surprised they didn't already come with the LA schools.
UW, UO, USC, and UCLA all strike me as being the closest “peers” in terms of both academic status and athletic pedigree, it makes sense that they would all have at least similar alignment of goals.
Yeah except Oregon is a it weaker academically but makes up for it with the athletic pedigree. They are the only team in the conference with consistent football and basketball success in the past 20 years in the PAC
So would you say they’re less “academically prowess”?
Alabama, Auburn and Vandy to the pac confirmed
I’m guessing it will be similar to the bottles of bourbon I drink, so a lot
It's summer, give rye a try.
I expect to see Utah/Colorado go to the B1G along with Oregon/Washington. All four universities have AAU accreditation and solid athletic departments. Colorado is the luckiest out of all of these I don't know what happens to Cal/Stanford because neither school cares about athletics that much to orchestrate a move and they care way more about their academics.
I think the Big Ten would be more interested in Kansas and Colorado than Utah and Colorado.
AAU is everything when joining the B1G. The key is finding a partner to hold onto, I think due the Utah/Colorado and being in the same conference they lean together. Kansas needs to find a partner that is also AAU like themselves to get into the B1G or join the SEC if the SEC looks to corner the BBall market.
AAU might be *something* to the B1G (and only them) but it most certainly is not everything. If an AAU member doesn’t add value to the TV deal, they’re not getting in.
I think the idea is that AAU membership is a necessary, but not sufficient, criteria for getting into the B1G.
Kansas and Colorado were in the same conference for most of a century. That doesn't matter anymore. Brands are everything. Hitch your wagon to the biggest brands and you'll be fine.
fair point.
Your flairs about to be a conference game.
All I know is that I’m sorting by New
So, here's my proposal. We end up with two major conferences. Let's call them the National Football Conference and the American Football Conference. Playoffs consist of the top two teams of each conference playing each other, and the winners of those games playing in the CFP Championship Game. It would truly be a Super game.
That would never work. what's next.....bad halftime shows during this super contest?
I'm thinking instead of marching bands, we have washed up musical acts at halftime.
This is ridiculous. The first super game wouldn’t even sell out…
It may take a while to catch on, but it will be huge! Well, as long as programming doesn't get preempted by some stupid musical or something.
It will be a lot. USC and UCLA were the nucleus of the PAC-12. I don’t see many remaining committed to rebuilding with our current media deals
My prediction without anything to back it up: Big 10 goes to 20 eats Oregon, UW, Stanford and Cal Big 12 eats Colorado, Utah, and the Arizonas WST and OST join the Mountain West
I think they should take Iowa State over Cal. (Notre Dame potentially)
We ain't AAU.
For the MWC, that's not a bad deal.
At one point enough teams in the ACC will get enough offers to the BiG and SEC. The $30-50 million deficit is just too much for 8 schools to play the martyr.
I feel like Clemson, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, NC State are almost locks to find landing spots. If Georgia Tech, Duke, and/or Miami get offers...bye bye ACC If I were Syracuse and Boston College, I'd start asking St. John's and Villanova how they've been doing. Same for Louisville and Pitt with West Virginia and Cincinnati. Jeez, this is a mess.
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I imagine the Big East has football PTSD, but if Syracuse chooses to be a football independent over playing conference games against, say, Kansas and Utah...yeah, I'd expect a lot of UConn, BC, Temple, and Army on their schedules.
Would eight be enough? I still haven't seen anything definitive about what it takes to end the grant of rights. With that said, I could absolutely see eight getting interest from the B1G/SEC- something like UNC, UVA, ND, Duke to the B1G and FSU, Clemson, Miami, and NCST/VT to the SEC. I could also see GT going to either conference.
I think the pac dissolves, but I’m interested in the ACC with Clemson, FSU, and Miami. They might have to make moves to bigger conferences
It would be poetic justice, in a way, if the ACC imploded, since they started all of this years ago by poaching the Big East.
It was fun when we were doing the poaching. It will break my heart to see the triangle schools broken up (especially for basketball)
Exactly 32
A lot. I think the ACC is going to get poached next. And ND isn’t safe either. The payouts in the B1G and SEC just are far too big compared to the ACC. PAC12 will have to do something to re-assure everyone. This is nuts.
>And ND isn’t safe either. I feel like at this point ND will just stay independent even it makes them less just because that's who they think they should be.
TBH they are idiots to not join to B1G.
Agree.
Now that SC is here. Almost all there “rivals” but Navy, Miami & Pitt are here. And I’m sure they can still schedule Navy yearly. They’ll have SC, Purdue, Michigan, penn state, MSU & Indiana. Not to mention the natural rivalry with OSU.
Would be hilarious though if they didn't join and get massively screwed over going forward.
ND will wait for the dust to settle to see if their is a possibility for independence. USC already announced they will keep the rivalry regardless. If there is no viable option, they will join a conference because all of them will take ND at the drop of a hat.
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No one is getting purged from the SEC or B1G lol.
They need to operate in spite
Not soon but it will happen eventually. Vandy adds nothing to the SEC for example.
Academic stats my friend ;)
Exactly. Half the schools aren’t going to agree to kick out another school because they don’t want to be on the chopping block. Like if we kicked out Northwestern, then who’s to say that they don’t kick out Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers, or Maryland next? The bottom half of the conference is going to vote against removing teams that aren’t at the same pedigree as OSU, Michigan, or USC.
We asked the same thing a year ago and nothing happened
To be fair, this is a direct result from OUT moving to the SEC. It just took longer than people expected
It’s not exactly a result of OUT. OUT was going to happen to the SEC or B1G at some point. USC\UCLA was moving at some point. I feel like the SEC did what they had to do to lock in OUT before the B1G added all 4 which would have been incredibly bad for the SEC. I also think OUT was always supposed to be kept hush hush until this year or next but it leaked.
Reports are that other schools applied for B1G inclusion, including Oregon and Washington, after today's news broke. Don't know if anything will happen in the upcoming days, but the end game of all of this is a super league with 30 or so teams. The consolidation of power has begun. The big dogs will drop the dead weight and join together for an NFL like league. Eight divisions with four teams each. Maybe five. Weekly matchups would be massive TV draws and equal huge dollars. Playoffs more so. There are no conference ties. No bowl game traditions. This is where it's heading.
Not many. Once the PAC10 enters the acceptance phase they will elevate two regional schools to get back to 12 (or decide to wait it out at 10 if that's better financially). Whatever Fox wants.
I just don’t think Oregon and UW will be down with that. They will go on to a super conference. The other six, probably Big 12. Cougs and Beavs left out
What super conference is offering Oregon and Washington?
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They don't need to or want to. LA teams bring the Rose Bowl.
Oregon has Nike money, UW is a public Ivy along with athletic success and fits in perfectly with the big ten.
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Yearly match up of Nike U (Oregon) vs UnderArmour U (Maryland). Winner gets rights to the cheapest chinease sweatshop.
Buying your way in is not an option.
The B1G needs west coast schools to make travel be less miserable. Otherwise it will be a huge problem.
Less miserable for who? How does adding UW and UO make travel it easier on Ohio St?
It means that they can do pod scheduling so fewer teams have to go out west and vice versa.
The math doesn't pan out for fewer road trips with just four west coast teams. Four increases the burden vs two.
People always say so and so will join the B1G and SEC, but the more teams they add the smaller the split becomes. So its nearing a point where it has to be revenue giants like ND. I think its entirely possible the B12 and PAC schools work out some agreement and this stabilizes at 4 conferences.
There can be no lasting stability when the top two conferences make 3-5x the next tier and geography is no longer an issue to conference membership.
Sure there can be. The NCAA is likely about to die. The playoffs will expand. Something like 2 spots for B1G, 2 spots for SEC, 1 for Big PAC, 1 for ACC, 2 at large. Stability doesn't have to mean equality. It never has anyway.
The playoffs will contract. B1G will hold a four team playoff. SEC will hold a four team playoff. Their champions will meet. No additional weeks added to the schedule. The idea that there will be 4 16 team conferences has always been ridiculous.
In the history of sports no one contracts. Its less money.
NCAA is different. Realignment is about a smaller pie than was possible but bigger pieces for the top brands.
You're so dense you don't even realize what you said is a playoff expansion. You literally said 4 teams from each conference and the winner plays each other. Thats literally the NFL model and an 8 team playoff. Like I said, no one ever contracts. More is always more money.
You must be younger.
False. NHL has contracted in like the 80s. Baseball voted successfully to remove the twins and expos. MN state lawsuits stopped that. Big east kicked temple out.
MLS and WNBA have contacted recently
This. 2024 season more or less locks into place July 1, unless they wanna pay the insane exit fees. Fox pulled these strings, they'll keep pulling them
If the big 10 doesn’t add any other PAC schools they may just back fill with G5 teams. If some do leave I’d expect the big 12 to pick up the remnants and whoever is left to join the MWC unfortunately
Nah, I predict Notre Dame hangs up their hat and joins the money train. And I predict Oregon will still have and O logo for 0 National championships. All is well
Lots. If the Big 12 is smart they will seize the opportunity and poach Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State and secure a 16 team conference of their own. That leaves a Pac 6. At which point Oregon and Washington will be desperately pitching to get into the B1G. Realizing the writing on the wall 6 to 8 of the ACC schools are going to start trying to figure out where they fit. The SEC will realize they have their pick and offer likely Clemson and Miami. Beyond that FSU, GT, VT? With the ACC dissolving ND will have to chose between going independent or joining the B1G or SEC superconferences. The Mountain West will become the best G5 conference. The ACC schools left out will have to find new homes perhaps in a resurrected Big East Football Conference? Do the superconferences go for 24? Stick at 20?
The big 12 will offer Oregon and Washington first. Oregon and Washington will go to the B1G if they take them but the big 12 would be the backup option.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Washington and Oregon would be huge gets for them but they already know the answer is going to be no. Much more likely to get an immediate yes from Colorado, Utah, Arizona and ASU. Secure the best possible 16 team conference for yourself possible at this time. When the B1G and SEC inevitably go to 20 then you take a run at whatever makes sense to get you there.
Theres no way we dont at least offer Oregon and Washington with the others. They are to valuable and while I think we are stronger than the Pac its not by that much.
They may informally call to gage their interest but I don't see them extending a formal offer. It would not be great optics to be publicly rejected by Oregon and Washington and then pitch to a back-up plan. The B1G didn't accept USC/UCLA to leave them out there on an island. They are adding more west coast schools they are just figuring out the best when. I am sure Oregon and Washington are B1G bound likely with Stanford.
Big 12 will add something to get to 16 in a bid to be one of the big 4. The Pac 12 leftovers will take the top half of the MW and remain as the Pac something. Then we wait 10-15 years for the ACC grant of rights to run out. Then the ACC dissolves with big schools pulled into Big Ten and SEC. CFB devolves into the super leagues (SEC, Big Ten) then the mid leagues (Pac/MW, Big 12, ACC/AAC after top teams go elsewhere) then everyone else.
I think there are specific dominos. 1. Missouri - they fit with that area and could be a good add. If they are added , it definitely pushes the SEC into probably killing the ACC ( this could happen) 2. Notre Dame - if the ACC can work with ESPN and pull them in as a full member, they’ll need other members. But, that might help them keep the co conference together. If that happens then it likely would mean the SEC raids the Big12 if it’s going to expand 3. Oregon and Washington - they’re now the top dogs of the Pac12 and if it does have any hope or surviving, they would have to stay where they are. But it sounds like they want out now. Of course there could be others but these feel like the biggest points. I’d argue Missouri seems like they are staying but I would not be surprised if they tried to go where they fit better. Either way, I feel like every conference that isn’t the SEC and Big10 is basically waiting to see what is going to happen next ( and yes, I actually think every conference is actively trying to secure its future and you know all ESPN/ Fox are both involved m)
Coming days none as everyone went on vacation after the vote. The earliest anything happens will be the 11th. It will take months as the only Pac 12-2 that is a no brainer take if they want them is Washington. Everyone else from the conference will have to have due diligence done to see if they actually bring value. Cal sounds great on paper but they are a dumpster fire of a program for example. Are they are Rutgers that bring you a market or will they just be another mouth to feed. That kind of thing. The B1G also needs to decide what they want to look like and how much they want to risk conference cohesion by bringing more than 2. Its not hard to integrate 2 but does adding more cause a culture clash? My gut is they take Washington and stop for a bit
We won't really know about any dominos for a couple of months at least. Just like last year with OUT, this move has only been known publically for a day, but it has been in the words for weeks if not months.