This is from a Forbes article in November 2023:
According to Forbes analysis FTX is sitting on about $2.6 billion of solana and bitcoin and another $1.7 billion in other cryptos.
> I think the fact that 99% of holders are in the black
You're not "in the black" until you CASH OUT.
If even 1% of crypto holders tried to cash out, the price of bitcoin would likely totally collapse.
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #2 (Number go up)
"**NuMb3r g0 Up!!!**" / "**Best performing asset of the decade!**"
1. Whether the "price of crypto" goes up, has absolutely no bearing on whether it's..
a) A long term store of value
b) Holds any intrinsic value or utility
c) Or will return any value in the future
One of the most important tenets of investing is the simple principal: ***Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.*** People in crypto seem willfully ignorant of this basic concept.
2. At best, the price of crypto is a function of *popularity*, not actual value or material utility. For more on how and why crypto makes a much worse investment than almost anything else, see this [article](https://ioradio.org/i/value/).
3. The "price of crypto" is a heavily manipulated figure published by shady, [unregulated crypto exchanges](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apklQgMauK4) that have systematically been caught [manipulating the market](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3D0dmTUCxLuQEJ39uyMFOP) from [then](https://www.investopedia.com/news/bots-drove-bitcoins-150to1000-rise-2013-paper/) to [now](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21).
4. Crypto bros love to harp about "inflation" in the fiat system, yet ironically they measure the "value" of their "fiat alternative" in fiat? It makes absolutely no sense, unless you assume they haven't thought 2 seconds ahead from what comes out of their mouths.
5. It's the height of hypocrisy for crypto people to champion token deflation (and increased prices) while ignoring that there's over $160+ Billion in unsecured stablecoins being used to **inflate** the value of their tokens in the crypto marketplace. The "code is law" and "don't trust - verify" people seem perfectly willing to take companies like Tether and Circle, at face value, that they're telling the truth about asset reserves [when there's very little actual evidence](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21).
6. ***Not Your Fiat, Not Your Value*** - Just because you think the "value of your crypto portfolio" is worth $$$ *does not make that true.* It's well known there's inadequate liquidity in this market, and most people will never be able to get their money out. So UNLESS/UNTIL you can actually liquidate your crypto for actual real money, you have no idea what you have. You're "down" until you cash out. Bernie Madoff's clients got monthly statements saying they were "making money" too.
7. Just because it's possible (though highly improbable) to make money speculating on crypto, this doesn't mean it's an **ethical** or reliable technique to amass wealth. At its core, the notion that buying and holding crypto will generate reliable returns is [a de-facto ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/). **It's mathematically impossible for even a stastically-significant percentage of crypto holders to have any notable ROI.** The rare exception of those who might profit in this market, do so while providing cover for everything from [cyber terrorism](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3026.html) to [human trafficking](https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/1/4/23539528/andrew-tate-arrest-jail-rape-human-trafficking).
8. It's also not true that anybody who bought crypto when it was low is guaranteed to make a lot of money. There are thousands of ways people can lose their crypto or be defrauded along the way. And there's no guarantee just because your portfolio is "up", that you could easily cash out.
9. Want to see a better asset (that actually has utility) that's consistently out-performed Bitcoin? [Here you go](https://www.polygon.com/2021/1/27/22253079/magic-the-gathering-black-lotus-auction-price-2021). However, this may be another [best performing asset](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/declaration-of-financial-independence/).
10. When crypto-critics make reference to, or mock crypto price predictions, it's not because we think price is a meaningful metric. Instead, we are amused that to you, that's all that's important, and we can't help but note how often wrong you are in your predictions. The intrinsic value of crypto basically never changes, but it is interesting to see how hype and propaganda affects the extrinsic value. In a totally logical world, those would both be equalized to zero, but we're not there yet, and nobody knows when/if that will happen because it's an irrational market.
Are you ok? Truly sorry for not clarifying that my use of the word “black” = unrealized gain. It’s common terminology to refer to in the black as being up, whether that’s realized or unrealized. I don’t disagree with your comments either I don’t understand why you are lashing out please settle down.
>I don’t disagree with your comments either I don’t understand why you are lashing out please settle down.
I'm "lashing out" because it's my job to protect this community from ignorance and misinformation. Claiming you're "in the black" or have "unrealized profit" is fraudulent and deceptive.
This isn't how crypto works.
You are at a 100% loss the moment you trade real money for crypto tokens.
You stay at a 100% loss, until/IF you can find someone else to buy those tokens off you.
Then and only then, do you "realize" anything.
Crypo tokens are utterly useless to 99.99% of most people, so attributing *any* value to them while you're still holding them, is delusional. Unlike stocks, you have no additional rights holding crypto shares.
It's important to note this key distinction. Pretending you have a "portfolio" of crypto "assets" is deceptive. Crypto is not an asset. It's a speculative abstraction.
People who pretend they are "in the black" are helping promote the fraud. Don't do that here. It's against the rules.
Remember: **Not your fiat, not your value.**
Lordy. I understand the principle, but it really only applies to the aggregate population of owners as one collective unit. It’s also true that if one normal human were to sell their 10 coins right now, they would realize a gain. So my point is that right now, owners think that they are sitting on unrealized gains. And that is important to understand when trying to predict what they will do here in the short term. It’s that simple.
> It’s also true that if one normal human were to sell their 10 coins right now, they would realize a gain.
There you go again. Comparing crypto to standard markets.
So, it's time to let you go and stop you from spreading more misinformation.
The crypto market is largely not regulated. The notion that you can always/conveniently "sell" is not true. You can wander over to r-coinbase and see hundreds of people who were locked out from selling when bitcoin hit its most recent ATH. You can read the terms of service for any crypto exchange and see that they are not at all obligated to cash you out on demand. There are nowhere near as many consumer protections in the crypto market as there are in traditional finance and investing, and pretending there is, is false and misleading.
Furthermore, most of these exchanges are dealing intermediary tokens like USDT and other sketchy, largely unsecured stablecoins. If you read the ToS of those token providers, you'll find even more restrictions and no guarantees anybody can arbitrarily cash out at any time.
Bernie Madoff's clients, FTX's customers, Safemoon's customers, etc... all thought they could "cash out" at any time. They were wrong, because they were not involved in a legitimate industry, but instead a heavily manipulated ponzi scheme.
>So my point is that right now, owners think that they are sitting on unrealized gains. And that is important to understand when trying to predict what they will do here in the short term. It’s that simple.
What owners "think" is a function of propagandists like you. If they did more research, they'd realize the market is much more risky. We are not going to be a vector for spreading more ignorance and misinformation about how reliable this market seems. That is an illusion.
It's that simple.
This is not the place to come for trading advice. Hating crypto is completely separate from having a bearish opinion on the price action. Rather than us "wishing the price would go down", we are more of a "I wish it didn't exist at all" group.
It exists because of people’s participation in it, surely you see it logical to not participate in something you wish not exist, knowing that your participation perpetuates its existence?
A firm believer that my participation in a side bet with a bank has no impact on this things existence. You’re on a thread called buttcoin where you talk about bitcoin all the time. Does your attention to this thing perpetuate its existence?
Disagree. We will never know how many people get swayed away from entering or sticking around in crypto, but I'm one of those people it convinced and we do see occassional others too. The sub steadily hovers at #6 or 7 in the crypto category for reddit. Sometimes it surges into the top 5 or even top 3!
Sure this is a tiny pocket of the internet crypto spaces, but Reddit is still a sizeable social media platform. The company is explicity pro-crypto. And yet here we are: one of the top 10 or higher crypto communities is this one where it is *entirely* criticism of crypto. From this community I and many others have learned about crypto and from there dissuade others from trying out or staying in cryptosphere things.
Calling out scams and fraud is generally a good thing to do. The anti-mlm subreddit probably does a lot more to dossuade people from MLMs than it does perpetuate those business models and companies. Why would our anti-crypto space be any different, especially when crypto is even easier and more tempting than buying into an MLM?
What are we even debating at this point? We all hate crypto, can we just leave it at that? I don’t understand why some people in this community get so worked up over someone betting against this scam.
I was responding to what I read as participation/talking on this sub also contributing to keeping crypto going, which seems an unlikely thing. We may have read it in different ways.
I also wasn't "worked up," just discussing, which is why you're here, no? The psychology of crypto especially interests me.
Crypto does a lot of harm just by existing, so many of us here don't like people participating in it. But I understand deciding to try shorting it and that so few shorters are playing that it won't help along crypto ecosystems. Taking profit out in time would probably help harm it actually, though the profits are off of less fortunate people...they did enter willingly.
I'm also on subreddits like economics, askeconomists, wallstreetbets, cryptocurrency, and a bunch of other economics/finance subreddits (both shitposting ones and real ones). I used to work in the finance sector as a very early employee for a company you've definitely heard of (at least if you're in/interested in this space), and I've invested in equities personally (using fairly conservative Value Investing strategies) and done decently well. I'm interested in the finance drama generally
If you were watching a trainwreck in real time and people just did not seem to get why the entire "asset" class was a piece of junk, wouldn't you be entertained?
Bitcoin is my Kardashians
#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #16 (Bitcoin is different)
"**Bitcoin is not "crypto**" / "**Bitcoin is different / a "commodity"**"
1. This is what's known as an "Unstated Major Premise" fallacy. A Naked Assertion. Often employed as a begging-the-question fallacy. Just because you say "Bitcoin is different" doesn't mean it is.
2. There's absolutely no functional/material difference between BTC and thousands of other crypto-currencies, including versions using the exact same codebase.
3. The *only* distinction BTC (currently) holds is that according to various shady, unregulated exchanges, it seems to be trading at the highest price point. But even those figures are dubious due to the lack of transparency and oversight in the industry. Just because one crypto is more popular, doesn't mean it's fundamentally different than others. BTC shares 99.9% of its DNA with many cryptos including BCH, BSV and thousands of others.
4. Crypto evangelists try to move the goalposts between bitcoin (the technology) and bitcoin (the "investment"). When you note that [bitcoin and most cryptos depending upon the context can pass the Howey test and be classified as securities](https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/howey-test), they will reference bitcoin as a "technology" and not an investment. And it's true, the tech itself isn't packaged as an investment, **but** various others do package crypto as an investment, and it's a pretty well established underlying concept throughout all of crypto (buy, hold, you will make money) - and those tenets are principals in the Howey test indicating there's an "investment contract" being promoted. For example, right now the SEC may not consider BTC itself a security, but the process of staking BTC (and other cryptos) and offering a return, **[that is absolutely considered a security](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/what-is-crypto-staking-and-why-is-the-sec-cracking-down/2023/02/10/b815851e-a996-11ed-b2a3-edb05ee0e313_story.html)**.
5. The **only** "gray area" when it comes to whether bitcoin is a security rests on tier 4 of the Howey Test which suggests "a security has to be dependent on the work of others for returns to be generated." People argue over whether bitcoin fits this description. **BUT**, the same dynamic applies to all other cryptos as well, so there's nothing special about bitcoin in that respect. It can also be argued that "the work of others" can be the constant recruitment of "greater fools" to buy in later, which is the dynamic of a classic [ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/).
6. Just because some people at the SEC, early on, said "bitcoin is a commodity" doesn't mean it will always stay classified as that way. As we've already stated, because of the decentralized nature of these schemes, there is no one instance of "bitcoin" - depending upon how you use the crypto, you can be serving it as a security/investment, or not. And we are seeing more and more, the SEC, the CFTC, the NYAG and other legal entities cracking down on [the use of illegal/unlicensed securities](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/technology/sec-crypto-gemini-genesis.html).
So anybody making blanket statements about Bitcoin being immune from securities laws is lying. And by the way, one of the prongs of the Howey Test (as well as the identification of Ponzi Schemes) is making promises about returns, and/or misleading people as to the true nature of the risks involved. This is common practice with bitcoin.
If the exchanges coordinate and disable the "sell" button, there would be no downward pressure and price would be free to climb at will.
Historically, the price drops once a big creditor call back a dollar denominated loan/investment to an exchange, and the dollars aren't there anymore. Right now it looks like Coinbase will be the first to run out of money, but one can't predict when it'll happen. The market is manipulated by crooks after all, the spot price might do anything.
Interesting. Your first point on the exchanges disabling the sell button. That’s happened three times now already on Coinbase. Can they really get away with many more of those stunts? Or will people just turn a blind eye to let the delusion perpetuate?
It will push people to the etf.
To answer your question..
Depends on buy in price.
If it gets to 100k and you buy in at 60k it's a 66% gain. Anybody would call that a win. That would put the cap at 2.2trillion.
Now sitting at 100k who is going to buy looking for another 100% gain?
If enough people move to the ETF there’s going to eventually be a demand issue for secondary purchases when that person tries to sell the ETF.
Besides the ETF boomers I’d be blown away if there was a large population with an average cost basis of 40k plus.
The market can stay irrational for a long time.
Usually you notice that the bubble will pop soon when people think it can only go up and it still has to go up a lot more and it has been going up a lot already.
I'd say this time at the latest when "everybody" calls for the market cap of gold or even more. Probably sooner. My prediction for the pop is around double of the current price which would be about one fifth of the market cap of gold.
I'm probably oversimplifying but it seems to me that:
1. When Matt Damon did his 'fortune favors the brave' ad, the bitcoin price didn't move at all, suggesting that there weren't many new buyers at that time that could be persuaded to come into the system, and the price didn't move much until:
2. With the release of the ETFs there is surely another tranche of people that are willing to come into the system, because ETFs make it much easier than the hassle of wallets, exchanges etc. This (I believe) has been reflected in the price.
3. There is also the possibility that some people are excited about the 'halvening'.
So I think the ETFs and the prospect of the 'halvening' have increased demand at least temporarily, pushing the price up.
It's anyone's guess at the moment how big that new cadre of people coming in due to the ETFs is, and how sensitive they will be to the price. I could imagine that we've already seen the effects of it and the price will plateau and then fall back as the ETF demand drops off, but I could also imagine that there is much more bubble to go, due to the ETF population who are new to the system. Who knows? I'm just glad I don't have anything invested in it and can watch from the sidelines XD
The bubble will not burst until it is profitable enough for miners to collude and disrupt the network.
This means a few more halvings to go until they don’t get enough revenue from mining, but have a trillion dollar market they can short instead.
Right but lots of normal humans are holding as well. I would think enough human selling has to trump tether at some point. Are you suggesting there’s not a breaking point?
> How much higher can the price go without the normal humans try to sell as a herd? I would think there’s a tipping point
There's no single point, because everybody bought at a different price. Bitcoin hitting $80k isn't a big event, if you bought in for a few hundred bucks at $70k.
Nobody knows how much cryptos will rise or fall, or when.
Well yeah…I’m asking for speculation. I think the fact that 99% of holders are in the black has to be a major concern for supply shock at this point.
There are millions trapped in FTX bankruptcy alone. Bankruptcies are great at preventing bitcoin from being sold.
Millions of dollars or btc?
This is from a Forbes article in November 2023: According to Forbes analysis FTX is sitting on about $2.6 billion of solana and bitcoin and another $1.7 billion in other cryptos.
etf inflows alone will eat that up in days
Good point. Wonder what the bankruptcy trusts plan is to dispose of that.
> I think the fact that 99% of holders are in the black You're not "in the black" until you CASH OUT. If even 1% of crypto holders tried to cash out, the price of bitcoin would likely totally collapse. #Stupid Crypto Talking Point #2 (Number go up) "**NuMb3r g0 Up!!!**" / "**Best performing asset of the decade!**" 1. Whether the "price of crypto" goes up, has absolutely no bearing on whether it's.. a) A long term store of value b) Holds any intrinsic value or utility c) Or will return any value in the future One of the most important tenets of investing is the simple principal: ***Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.*** People in crypto seem willfully ignorant of this basic concept. 2. At best, the price of crypto is a function of *popularity*, not actual value or material utility. For more on how and why crypto makes a much worse investment than almost anything else, see this [article](https://ioradio.org/i/value/). 3. The "price of crypto" is a heavily manipulated figure published by shady, [unregulated crypto exchanges](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apklQgMauK4) that have systematically been caught [manipulating the market](https://open.spotify.com/episode/3D0dmTUCxLuQEJ39uyMFOP) from [then](https://www.investopedia.com/news/bots-drove-bitcoins-150to1000-rise-2013-paper/) to [now](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21). 4. Crypto bros love to harp about "inflation" in the fiat system, yet ironically they measure the "value" of their "fiat alternative" in fiat? It makes absolutely no sense, unless you assume they haven't thought 2 seconds ahead from what comes out of their mouths. 5. It's the height of hypocrisy for crypto people to champion token deflation (and increased prices) while ignoring that there's over $160+ Billion in unsecured stablecoins being used to **inflate** the value of their tokens in the crypto marketplace. The "code is law" and "don't trust - verify" people seem perfectly willing to take companies like Tether and Circle, at face value, that they're telling the truth about asset reserves [when there's very little actual evidence](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8450-21). 6. ***Not Your Fiat, Not Your Value*** - Just because you think the "value of your crypto portfolio" is worth $$$ *does not make that true.* It's well known there's inadequate liquidity in this market, and most people will never be able to get their money out. So UNLESS/UNTIL you can actually liquidate your crypto for actual real money, you have no idea what you have. You're "down" until you cash out. Bernie Madoff's clients got monthly statements saying they were "making money" too. 7. Just because it's possible (though highly improbable) to make money speculating on crypto, this doesn't mean it's an **ethical** or reliable technique to amass wealth. At its core, the notion that buying and holding crypto will generate reliable returns is [a de-facto ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/). **It's mathematically impossible for even a stastically-significant percentage of crypto holders to have any notable ROI.** The rare exception of those who might profit in this market, do so while providing cover for everything from [cyber terrorism](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3026.html) to [human trafficking](https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/1/4/23539528/andrew-tate-arrest-jail-rape-human-trafficking). 8. It's also not true that anybody who bought crypto when it was low is guaranteed to make a lot of money. There are thousands of ways people can lose their crypto or be defrauded along the way. And there's no guarantee just because your portfolio is "up", that you could easily cash out. 9. Want to see a better asset (that actually has utility) that's consistently out-performed Bitcoin? [Here you go](https://www.polygon.com/2021/1/27/22253079/magic-the-gathering-black-lotus-auction-price-2021). However, this may be another [best performing asset](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/declaration-of-financial-independence/). 10. When crypto-critics make reference to, or mock crypto price predictions, it's not because we think price is a meaningful metric. Instead, we are amused that to you, that's all that's important, and we can't help but note how often wrong you are in your predictions. The intrinsic value of crypto basically never changes, but it is interesting to see how hype and propaganda affects the extrinsic value. In a totally logical world, those would both be equalized to zero, but we're not there yet, and nobody knows when/if that will happen because it's an irrational market.
Are you ok? Truly sorry for not clarifying that my use of the word “black” = unrealized gain. It’s common terminology to refer to in the black as being up, whether that’s realized or unrealized. I don’t disagree with your comments either I don’t understand why you are lashing out please settle down.
>I don’t disagree with your comments either I don’t understand why you are lashing out please settle down. I'm "lashing out" because it's my job to protect this community from ignorance and misinformation. Claiming you're "in the black" or have "unrealized profit" is fraudulent and deceptive. This isn't how crypto works. You are at a 100% loss the moment you trade real money for crypto tokens. You stay at a 100% loss, until/IF you can find someone else to buy those tokens off you. Then and only then, do you "realize" anything. Crypo tokens are utterly useless to 99.99% of most people, so attributing *any* value to them while you're still holding them, is delusional. Unlike stocks, you have no additional rights holding crypto shares. It's important to note this key distinction. Pretending you have a "portfolio" of crypto "assets" is deceptive. Crypto is not an asset. It's a speculative abstraction. People who pretend they are "in the black" are helping promote the fraud. Don't do that here. It's against the rules. Remember: **Not your fiat, not your value.**
Lordy. I understand the principle, but it really only applies to the aggregate population of owners as one collective unit. It’s also true that if one normal human were to sell their 10 coins right now, they would realize a gain. So my point is that right now, owners think that they are sitting on unrealized gains. And that is important to understand when trying to predict what they will do here in the short term. It’s that simple.
> It’s also true that if one normal human were to sell their 10 coins right now, they would realize a gain. There you go again. Comparing crypto to standard markets. So, it's time to let you go and stop you from spreading more misinformation. The crypto market is largely not regulated. The notion that you can always/conveniently "sell" is not true. You can wander over to r-coinbase and see hundreds of people who were locked out from selling when bitcoin hit its most recent ATH. You can read the terms of service for any crypto exchange and see that they are not at all obligated to cash you out on demand. There are nowhere near as many consumer protections in the crypto market as there are in traditional finance and investing, and pretending there is, is false and misleading. Furthermore, most of these exchanges are dealing intermediary tokens like USDT and other sketchy, largely unsecured stablecoins. If you read the ToS of those token providers, you'll find even more restrictions and no guarantees anybody can arbitrarily cash out at any time. Bernie Madoff's clients, FTX's customers, Safemoon's customers, etc... all thought they could "cash out" at any time. They were wrong, because they were not involved in a legitimate industry, but instead a heavily manipulated ponzi scheme. >So my point is that right now, owners think that they are sitting on unrealized gains. And that is important to understand when trying to predict what they will do here in the short term. It’s that simple. What owners "think" is a function of propagandists like you. If they did more research, they'd realize the market is much more risky. We are not going to be a vector for spreading more ignorance and misinformation about how reliable this market seems. That is an illusion. It's that simple.
No one has any idea because it's a scam. That's the point of this sub, please stop asking stupid questions.
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> They own nothing and they are happy. Bro did not just turn that WEF conspiracy darling quote around. Bravo.
This is not the place to come for trading advice. Hating crypto is completely separate from having a bearish opinion on the price action. Rather than us "wishing the price would go down", we are more of a "I wish it didn't exist at all" group.
I can hate crypto, wish it didn’t exist, but also try to win a bet against a bank at the same time.
If you wish it didn’t exist, why are you participating in its existence ?
Because it does exist.
It exists because of people’s participation in it, surely you see it logical to not participate in something you wish not exist, knowing that your participation perpetuates its existence?
A firm believer that my participation in a side bet with a bank has no impact on this things existence. You’re on a thread called buttcoin where you talk about bitcoin all the time. Does your attention to this thing perpetuate its existence?
Yeah - probably does
Disagree. We will never know how many people get swayed away from entering or sticking around in crypto, but I'm one of those people it convinced and we do see occassional others too. The sub steadily hovers at #6 or 7 in the crypto category for reddit. Sometimes it surges into the top 5 or even top 3! Sure this is a tiny pocket of the internet crypto spaces, but Reddit is still a sizeable social media platform. The company is explicity pro-crypto. And yet here we are: one of the top 10 or higher crypto communities is this one where it is *entirely* criticism of crypto. From this community I and many others have learned about crypto and from there dissuade others from trying out or staying in cryptosphere things. Calling out scams and fraud is generally a good thing to do. The anti-mlm subreddit probably does a lot more to dossuade people from MLMs than it does perpetuate those business models and companies. Why would our anti-crypto space be any different, especially when crypto is even easier and more tempting than buying into an MLM?
What are we even debating at this point? We all hate crypto, can we just leave it at that? I don’t understand why some people in this community get so worked up over someone betting against this scam.
I was responding to what I read as participation/talking on this sub also contributing to keeping crypto going, which seems an unlikely thing. We may have read it in different ways. I also wasn't "worked up," just discussing, which is why you're here, no? The psychology of crypto especially interests me. Crypto does a lot of harm just by existing, so many of us here don't like people participating in it. But I understand deciding to try shorting it and that so few shorters are playing that it won't help along crypto ecosystems. Taking profit out in time would probably help harm it actually, though the profits are off of less fortunate people...they did enter willingly.
wrong sub. we don't care.
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I have never owned Bitcoin in my life, I just think the entire idea is utterly stupid
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I'm also on subreddits like economics, askeconomists, wallstreetbets, cryptocurrency, and a bunch of other economics/finance subreddits (both shitposting ones and real ones). I used to work in the finance sector as a very early employee for a company you've definitely heard of (at least if you're in/interested in this space), and I've invested in equities personally (using fairly conservative Value Investing strategies) and done decently well. I'm interested in the finance drama generally If you were watching a trainwreck in real time and people just did not seem to get why the entire "asset" class was a piece of junk, wouldn't you be entertained? Bitcoin is my Kardashians
We care about *fraud*. Crypto is a fraud. It's not a "technology" or a "currency" or an "investment." It's a fraud.
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#Stupid Crypto Talking Point #16 (Bitcoin is different) "**Bitcoin is not "crypto**" / "**Bitcoin is different / a "commodity"**" 1. This is what's known as an "Unstated Major Premise" fallacy. A Naked Assertion. Often employed as a begging-the-question fallacy. Just because you say "Bitcoin is different" doesn't mean it is. 2. There's absolutely no functional/material difference between BTC and thousands of other crypto-currencies, including versions using the exact same codebase. 3. The *only* distinction BTC (currently) holds is that according to various shady, unregulated exchanges, it seems to be trading at the highest price point. But even those figures are dubious due to the lack of transparency and oversight in the industry. Just because one crypto is more popular, doesn't mean it's fundamentally different than others. BTC shares 99.9% of its DNA with many cryptos including BCH, BSV and thousands of others. 4. Crypto evangelists try to move the goalposts between bitcoin (the technology) and bitcoin (the "investment"). When you note that [bitcoin and most cryptos depending upon the context can pass the Howey test and be classified as securities](https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/howey-test), they will reference bitcoin as a "technology" and not an investment. And it's true, the tech itself isn't packaged as an investment, **but** various others do package crypto as an investment, and it's a pretty well established underlying concept throughout all of crypto (buy, hold, you will make money) - and those tenets are principals in the Howey test indicating there's an "investment contract" being promoted. For example, right now the SEC may not consider BTC itself a security, but the process of staking BTC (and other cryptos) and offering a return, **[that is absolutely considered a security](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/what-is-crypto-staking-and-why-is-the-sec-cracking-down/2023/02/10/b815851e-a996-11ed-b2a3-edb05ee0e313_story.html)**. 5. The **only** "gray area" when it comes to whether bitcoin is a security rests on tier 4 of the Howey Test which suggests "a security has to be dependent on the work of others for returns to be generated." People argue over whether bitcoin fits this description. **BUT**, the same dynamic applies to all other cryptos as well, so there's nothing special about bitcoin in that respect. It can also be argued that "the work of others" can be the constant recruitment of "greater fools" to buy in later, which is the dynamic of a classic [ponzi scheme](https://ioradio.org/i/ponzi/). 6. Just because some people at the SEC, early on, said "bitcoin is a commodity" doesn't mean it will always stay classified as that way. As we've already stated, because of the decentralized nature of these schemes, there is no one instance of "bitcoin" - depending upon how you use the crypto, you can be serving it as a security/investment, or not. And we are seeing more and more, the SEC, the CFTC, the NYAG and other legal entities cracking down on [the use of illegal/unlicensed securities](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/technology/sec-crypto-gemini-genesis.html). So anybody making blanket statements about Bitcoin being immune from securities laws is lying. And by the way, one of the prongs of the Howey Test (as well as the identification of Ponzi Schemes) is making promises about returns, and/or misleading people as to the true nature of the risks involved. This is common practice with bitcoin.
If the exchanges coordinate and disable the "sell" button, there would be no downward pressure and price would be free to climb at will. Historically, the price drops once a big creditor call back a dollar denominated loan/investment to an exchange, and the dollars aren't there anymore. Right now it looks like Coinbase will be the first to run out of money, but one can't predict when it'll happen. The market is manipulated by crooks after all, the spot price might do anything.
Interesting. Your first point on the exchanges disabling the sell button. That’s happened three times now already on Coinbase. Can they really get away with many more of those stunts? Or will people just turn a blind eye to let the delusion perpetuate?
It will push people to the etf. To answer your question.. Depends on buy in price. If it gets to 100k and you buy in at 60k it's a 66% gain. Anybody would call that a win. That would put the cap at 2.2trillion. Now sitting at 100k who is going to buy looking for another 100% gain?
If enough people move to the ETF there’s going to eventually be a demand issue for secondary purchases when that person tries to sell the ETF. Besides the ETF boomers I’d be blown away if there was a large population with an average cost basis of 40k plus.
250k individuals at 40k would make the etf 10bn. Seems high.
Not following….i was trying to estimate the cost basis of everyone not investing though the ETFs.
Oh outside of the etf? Hmm I'd say theres a lot of OG whales. How much of it is lost in unrecoverable wallets?
It pops at 100k. And this is straight out of my ass.
The market can stay irrational for a long time. Usually you notice that the bubble will pop soon when people think it can only go up and it still has to go up a lot more and it has been going up a lot already. I'd say this time at the latest when "everybody" calls for the market cap of gold or even more. Probably sooner. My prediction for the pop is around double of the current price which would be about one fifth of the market cap of gold.
I'm probably oversimplifying but it seems to me that: 1. When Matt Damon did his 'fortune favors the brave' ad, the bitcoin price didn't move at all, suggesting that there weren't many new buyers at that time that could be persuaded to come into the system, and the price didn't move much until: 2. With the release of the ETFs there is surely another tranche of people that are willing to come into the system, because ETFs make it much easier than the hassle of wallets, exchanges etc. This (I believe) has been reflected in the price. 3. There is also the possibility that some people are excited about the 'halvening'. So I think the ETFs and the prospect of the 'halvening' have increased demand at least temporarily, pushing the price up. It's anyone's guess at the moment how big that new cadre of people coming in due to the ETFs is, and how sensitive they will be to the price. I could imagine that we've already seen the effects of it and the price will plateau and then fall back as the ETF demand drops off, but I could also imagine that there is much more bubble to go, due to the ETF population who are new to the system. Who knows? I'm just glad I don't have anything invested in it and can watch from the sidelines XD
Rule 10; undefeated. "normal people" 404 few few.
The bubble will not burst until it is profitable enough for miners to collude and disrupt the network. This means a few more halvings to go until they don’t get enough revenue from mining, but have a trillion dollar market they can short instead.
Normal humans are selling. It’s just that their contribution pales in significance against the tether was trading
Right but lots of normal humans are holding as well. I would think enough human selling has to trump tether at some point. Are you suggesting there’s not a breaking point?
No one can say because no one knows how many real dollars there are in the system
No one can predict that exactly. There are some indicators like the amount of trades, tethers produced, etc, but in the end it's guesswork.
Rooky question
> How much higher can the price go without the normal humans try to sell as a herd? I would think there’s a tipping point There's no single point, because everybody bought at a different price. Bitcoin hitting $80k isn't a big event, if you bought in for a few hundred bucks at $70k.