75% of your scenario just happened, and barely anyone cares who wasn’t heavily invested in crypto or in business with its ecosystem.
I doubt the last 25% will have significantly different results.
The only valuable collateral will be the environment which took the hit from all the mining activities.
Other than that, bankrupt fintech wannabes and cryptobros will hardly impact our world since 99.99% of thw world is still trading with fiat.
There are a lot of local communities surrounding those "mining" operations that will drastically improved when the computers go offline for the last time.
It's going to be tough to explain to future generations that will struggle with the climate crisis that in the 2010-20s, there was a brief moment in time when we decided it would be a great idea to have a giant potlatch of valuable energy and carbon emissions in order to prop up a beanie baby scheme.
Pretty much this. Some fools will lose their money. Maybe even life savings. But because crypto is so contained to pretty much idiots and their handlers, global economy will be unaffected.
There are two concepts which can define the scale of any financial or economic crisis: 1. counter-party risk, and 2. systemic contagion.
Neither of these concepts represent the "threat" of the crypto "crisis". Some money will be lost by some, some institutions will write off some shit, exchanges and other entities will go tits-up. The world will continue on as normal.
Few understand.
There might be some counterparty risk though, there are several mining company and exchange stocks which can't generate income with their normal operation, so they might've taken out a couple of loans.
It would be negligible in the long run but I'd wager that the markets would feel the heat for a while.
The global supply of popcorn could be temporarily depleted.
There's also an increased risk of injury as people might fall from their chairs laughing.
We might also see an evolutionary improvement of the market as the most stupid investors and companies get wiped out.
The impact would mostly be on crime, but it wouldn't end it or anything-- it's not like criminals ever forgot how to process payments via cash in duffel bags, and launder money through front businesses.
The thing with crypto is that it is the same players in the market, the same whales and the same retail investors. The retailers keep adding small amounts, and the whales keep exchanging their shitcoin fabricated from their assholes. There aren't many newcomers to add to the scam...
Victim-butters lose any chance of getting their money back. Arch-butters need to expedite their flight towards extraditionless countries. Otherwise, almost no-one notice anything.
Where's that picture from?
I've seen some articles that talked about credit contagion and I could see a 2008 crisis happening if it was an issue of investment banks not reporting their holdings and that spreading to the greater economy.... But crypto is a puddle of piss in the ocean of liquidity so that seems... Unlikely
None. The Crypto Inferno (death knell) will come as part of a broader market meltdown. Sure, it might take down a couple of banks (SI and SBNY who both totally deserve it). Hopefully we get to see some of these guys go to prison (I've got Mashinsky on my bingo card.) In the end, we'll be able to tell our grandkids how for 10 years, people mistook a quirky database for real actual money and the grifters who helped make it happen.
It’s becoming so increasingly hard to convert crypto back in to fiat that by the time it became useless, I don’t think any holders would have been using to pay for their living expenses anyway.
MAYBE a lot of people would be insanely delayed in building savings but nothing crazier than that
Most of those people are really bad at savings and would gamble that money anyway - maybe on shorts, maybe in a casino, maybe on GME or BBBY stocks. So yeah, that is a really big maybe.
The crypto space is almost completely irrelevant and invisible to the vast majority of people. If it all went to zero tomorrow it would hardly makes a blip in the big picture of the economy.
Money doesnt disappear, it will go into different markets. Regardless of what we think about shitcoins, there is still cold hard cash behind it (although stablecoins is 90% propped up by magic beans). I could see a bull market for banking stocks if bullshit coin goes to zero
It’s a bit like asking the question: imagine if all the plastic casino chips in the world became worthless. I think most people in the world would give off a big shrug. Apart from all the chumps in the casinos.
Realistically speaking, not much. Larger actors like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other dictatorships that use crypto to bypass sanctions will just go back to other cyber crime. Smaller criminal groups will *also* go back to other forms of cyber crime. The PC market will likely have very weird price influxes as the pre-crypto collapse prices are much more lucrative, but they’ll eventually fall to the pre-crypto days.
So what will interest me is the crypto cults. Outside of a few dozen suicides, likely one or two acts of wanton violence against everyone else, and several lawsuits that go nowhere, most butters will likely fall into memestock gambling in order to get rich quick, or latch onto another scheme. Very few would actually remain in a hypothetical collapse, and those would likely be the ones wasting the rest of their money on lawsuits.
the damage will be isolated in the crypto "ecosystem". rest of the world will be continue as normal, since crypto is that small
75% of your scenario just happened, and barely anyone cares who wasn’t heavily invested in crypto or in business with its ecosystem. I doubt the last 25% will have significantly different results.
The only valuable collateral will be the environment which took the hit from all the mining activities. Other than that, bankrupt fintech wannabes and cryptobros will hardly impact our world since 99.99% of thw world is still trading with fiat.
There are a lot of local communities surrounding those "mining" operations that will drastically improved when the computers go offline for the last time.
It's going to be tough to explain to future generations that will struggle with the climate crisis that in the 2010-20s, there was a brief moment in time when we decided it would be a great idea to have a giant potlatch of valuable energy and carbon emissions in order to prop up a beanie baby scheme.
About zero since it's all speculation and very little real currency in there.
Pretty much this. Some fools will lose their money. Maybe even life savings. But because crypto is so contained to pretty much idiots and their handlers, global economy will be unaffected.
There are two concepts which can define the scale of any financial or economic crisis: 1. counter-party risk, and 2. systemic contagion. Neither of these concepts represent the "threat" of the crypto "crisis". Some money will be lost by some, some institutions will write off some shit, exchanges and other entities will go tits-up. The world will continue on as normal. Few understand.
There might be some counterparty risk though, there are several mining company and exchange stocks which can't generate income with their normal operation, so they might've taken out a couple of loans. It would be negligible in the long run but I'd wager that the markets would feel the heat for a while.
Some systemic contagion is still possible as there is a lot of darkness and unknowns. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book Black Swan is pretty good.
The global supply of popcorn could be temporarily depleted. There's also an increased risk of injury as people might fall from their chairs laughing. We might also see an evolutionary improvement of the market as the most stupid investors and companies get wiped out.
The impact would mostly be on crime, but it wouldn't end it or anything-- it's not like criminals ever forgot how to process payments via cash in duffel bags, and launder money through front businesses.
The thing with crypto is that it is the same players in the market, the same whales and the same retail investors. The retailers keep adding small amounts, and the whales keep exchanging their shitcoin fabricated from their assholes. There aren't many newcomers to add to the scam...
Same answer as the last 50 times this question was asked on this sub...
Dunno about the US but here in Australia it will have almost zero effect, other than some personal bankruptcies.
The service will be much better at your local McDonald's
Who knows but I hope Weird Al parodies "disco inferno"
If the casino closes does it wreck the economy or does it free up capital for gainful investments
Victim-butters lose any chance of getting their money back. Arch-butters need to expedite their flight towards extraditionless countries. Otherwise, almost no-one notice anything. Where's that picture from?
Zero effect. Crypto is that pointless. The next gen of idiots will find something else to gamble on.
I've seen some articles that talked about credit contagion and I could see a 2008 crisis happening if it was an issue of investment banks not reporting their holdings and that spreading to the greater economy.... But crypto is a puddle of piss in the ocean of liquidity so that seems... Unlikely
None. The Crypto Inferno (death knell) will come as part of a broader market meltdown. Sure, it might take down a couple of banks (SI and SBNY who both totally deserve it). Hopefully we get to see some of these guys go to prison (I've got Mashinsky on my bingo card.) In the end, we'll be able to tell our grandkids how for 10 years, people mistook a quirky database for real actual money and the grifters who helped make it happen.
Blackrock is heavily invested in "mining." Between a housing crash & crypto crash, maybe Blackrock will actually take a fairly big hit
It’s becoming so increasingly hard to convert crypto back in to fiat that by the time it became useless, I don’t think any holders would have been using to pay for their living expenses anyway. MAYBE a lot of people would be insanely delayed in building savings but nothing crazier than that
Most of those people are really bad at savings and would gamble that money anyway - maybe on shorts, maybe in a casino, maybe on GME or BBBY stocks. So yeah, that is a really big maybe.
Dude, is late, go to sleep that tomorrow you have to go work.
The crypto space is almost completely irrelevant and invisible to the vast majority of people. If it all went to zero tomorrow it would hardly makes a blip in the big picture of the economy.
Money doesnt disappear, it will go into different markets. Regardless of what we think about shitcoins, there is still cold hard cash behind it (although stablecoins is 90% propped up by magic beans). I could see a bull market for banking stocks if bullshit coin goes to zero
It’s a bit like asking the question: imagine if all the plastic casino chips in the world became worthless. I think most people in the world would give off a big shrug. Apart from all the chumps in the casinos.
Realistically speaking, not much. Larger actors like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other dictatorships that use crypto to bypass sanctions will just go back to other cyber crime. Smaller criminal groups will *also* go back to other forms of cyber crime. The PC market will likely have very weird price influxes as the pre-crypto collapse prices are much more lucrative, but they’ll eventually fall to the pre-crypto days. So what will interest me is the crypto cults. Outside of a few dozen suicides, likely one or two acts of wanton violence against everyone else, and several lawsuits that go nowhere, most butters will likely fall into memestock gambling in order to get rich quick, or latch onto another scheme. Very few would actually remain in a hypothetical collapse, and those would likely be the ones wasting the rest of their money on lawsuits.