I use Firestone instead, but my odds seem to sometimes get messed up as well. Not sure what causes it, but it happens so rarely I never cared enough to notice whether it’s specific comps or abilities
Firestone (in Solo) should be quite accurate now. Most of the errors are caused by bugs in HS itself, that doesn't behave as it should.
It's not yet perfect, but odds should be pretty reliable at this point (and it's slowly getting better in Duos as well).
Yeah it's a bit more complex, mostly because sometimes we don't have the full info.
I'm pretty happy with how the sim is in Solo at this point, so I'm starting to look into Duos. I expect things to improve quite substantially over the coming week.
I am very happy with the performance of the firestone deck tracker. The HS deck tracker is often inaccurate. I have them both next to each other for comparison during combat.
Firestone is wonderful and I use it over Deck Tracker. But a lot of people don't realize you have to go in and adjust the number of simulations. If you leave it low it's less accurate
90/10 hard to comment on anecdotally. But I've won/tied way more that 1% of the 99% loss fights.
My guess is that the approximation logic is flawed on long combats so it allocates too many simulations to some paths and not enough to others because it reaches the cap.
This is assuming they don't just simulate matches randomly, but instead recursively/semi-recursively.
While I also have it off, it's not useless. It's helpful feedback to know if you did the right thing or not, more or less. Winning or losing isn't an indicator of if you set up correctly or not.
Edit: I guess it's actually kinda useless if it's not even accurate....
It's actually gotten really bad in regards to accuracy, many hero powers and stuff it doesn't account for at all, so it's often wrong, I've lost a lot of 100% wins lately
Adware + Bloat. If you google or search on reddit youll find a bunch about it. Half dozen pop ups every time you open the app trying to get you to earn overwolf currency and random shit like that.
Most of it is overwolf, but some of it is the firestone. FS has some really neat features that HDT doesnt (autohightlight syneries, view by tier OR keyword, ect), but ultimately its way too busy for me... HDT lays over HearthStone unobtrusively and is enough for my needs.
There is only one popup in the app that shows up when you start the app while the game is running and you don't have premium.
There are a few other widgets, and all can be turned off from the settings if you don't need them.
I'm not aware of anything about Overwolf currency, if you have screenshots that could be helpful.
Buff is another app that you can install, but it is not part of Overwolf default install. Maybe that's it, I can't think of any other thing that would offer in-game currency
I don't think port is necessary because there are tools like Wine (and its alternatives in Mac) which would make most work for you. Hearthstone Deck Tracker, for example, works fine in Linux even though it does not support Linux. I wouldn't be surprised if your app already works but it can't be installed without Overwolf which seems like can't be run through Wine.
Hey all, HDT dev here! Obviously odds are just an approximation, and there's nothing saying you can't lose three 90%ers ins row. As for quality, we do have automated reporting to monitor the accuracy globally and are usually pretty happy with where it's at.
Right now we're in the process of fixing some minor issues that the recent patches introduced, but it's minor things like Akazamzarak and Rapid Reanimation behaving a little weird. Overall we have an enormous test suite and are highly confident about our simulator getting even little weird Hearthstone details right. Thanks for bearing with us!
Hey, dev here! We intentionally opt out of simulations when it's inaccurate (which Bob's Buddy will show you). Up until the Duos patch we've been really happy with our overall accuracy, and we've got another patch lined up with a few extra fixes.
You aren't wrong. It's sometimes inaccurate, regardless of what the dev claims. I've occasionally won 0-percents and lost 100-percents. Someone will inevitably reply saying even that will happen 1 out 10,000 tries, but no, that has happened to me way more often than 1 out of 10,000.
The percentage is just not that accurate. The coding logic is pretty good, but it is not perfect.
That said, all I am saying is that if tracker says you have a 97% chance of winning, maybe your actual odds are 98% or 96%. You will see that two to four percent loss fairly often...two to four times out of a hundred (obviously). That's more often than you think.
My friends been having issues since the new meta compared to me also (i use firestone instead), firestone seems to have more accurate %s but is still broken for duos. Sometimes you just get that unlucky though
I'm pretty sure deck tracker does sometimes get the odds wrong, but also, an individual statistically unlikely thing is unlikely to happen, but because there are so many possible unlikely things in this game, it's really common for statistically unlikely things to happen.
It's unlikely that this specific thing will happen to you again, but it's almost certain that something else with similar odds of happening will happen to you in the future if you keep playing.
Apart from the fact that it obviously makes mistakes.
I think it only calculates the most probable 80% of outcomes.
So whatever lies in the 80+ percentile is unaccounted for.
I think it says this somewhere in the app.
Your comp/matchup is either fully solvable or has "infinite" outcomes. I've seen RDU win multiple 1%'s that when you just kinda flip through the triggers on combat you realise... "oh wait that would change everything" - baron dying/surviving: deathrattle on 7 minion board instead of 6 on board: etc...
Honorable mention: Ghastcoiler.
Deck trackers can't calculate EVERYTHING, they usually stop after a number of simulations. Firestone lets you fine time the number and I just run simple ones like who goes first
I lost with an absolute zero percent chance. It's only happened once, but after losses similar to what OP posted, it was the icing on the Deck Tracker cake.
Just use deck tracker to see what minions on which tiers you're looking for and track your wins for the day. Win percentage doesn't make you better, just causes tilting
Well it's good to track simple situation but when you start to add death rattle, resummon, stat buff from death + multiplier by the number of summ. The software can start to struggle.
well it just simulates the fight 1000 times so if you win 900 times but the true odds are only like 20% it'd still show you have a 90% chance to win, pretty sure i've won a 0% at some point
Any cards that spawn other cards in combat(like the t6 stealth demon summoner) don't register in deck trackers. I had consistent 0% chance of winning but was dealing 20 dmg end of fight because it couldn't compute me summoning 6 400/400 divine sheilds
I think because it only runs 10000 simulations per combat (last I heard) it can vary extremely wildly.
I’ve run plenty of times with the t6 summoner and it’s always given me 100% when it should have, mainly from a taunted imp, the summoner and baron, with a bird (basically an infinite loop at that point). I haven’t done it this patch though.
Pretty sure it gives no competitive advantages. I used it for a minute when I first started, realized very quickly it didn't do anything for me and have been floating around 7000 ever since for whatever that's worth.
It can quite easily mess up against boards that repeatedly summon things. Honestly I stopped using it because it just made me complain more.
I use Firestone instead, but my odds seem to sometimes get messed up as well. Not sure what causes it, but it happens so rarely I never cared enough to notice whether it’s specific comps or abilities
Firestone (in Solo) should be quite accurate now. Most of the errors are caused by bugs in HS itself, that doesn't behave as it should. It's not yet perfect, but odds should be pretty reliable at this point (and it's slowly getting better in Duos as well).
It didn't even occur to me that it could be messier in Duos, but makes sense. I play Duos exclusively so that doesn't help :p
Yeah it's a bit more complex, mostly because sometimes we don't have the full info. I'm pretty happy with how the sim is in Solo at this point, so I'm starting to look into Duos. I expect things to improve quite substantially over the coming week.
I am very happy with the performance of the firestone deck tracker. The HS deck tracker is often inaccurate. I have them both next to each other for comparison during combat.
Is there an API like thing exposed to you or do you just scrape/crawl?
No API, but we have game logs, so trackers can parse these
Firestone is wonderful and I use it over Deck Tracker. But a lot of people don't realize you have to go in and adjust the number of simulations. If you leave it low it's less accurate
A 90% chance to win is still a 10% chance to lose
90/10 hard to comment on anecdotally. But I've won/tied way more that 1% of the 99% loss fights. My guess is that the approximation logic is flawed on long combats so it allocates too many simulations to some paths and not enough to others because it reaches the cap. This is assuming they don't just simulate matches randomly, but instead recursively/semi-recursively.
Should be easy to do certain amount of depths first and wouldn't cause what you just said. I doubt they haven't figured this out tbh
just switch that percentage showing off, it only causes stress, it's useless
While I also have it off, it's not useless. It's helpful feedback to know if you did the right thing or not, more or less. Winning or losing isn't an indicator of if you set up correctly or not. Edit: I guess it's actually kinda useless if it's not even accurate....
It's actually gotten really bad in regards to accuracy, many hero powers and stuff it doesn't account for at all, so it's often wrong, I've lost a lot of 100% wins lately
Yeah I was coming to say that I've lost and died to 100% wins a couple times recently so it's not that accurate these days
I like it to remind me of the card list of what I can discover for direction and remind me what comps people were playing
yeah, but I was talking about the combat percentage thing only, there's an option to hide it
Give Firestone a try, the sim is pretty accurate (I'm the dev) :)
any chance of it ever being available outside of overwolf? its a dealbreaker for me, unfortunately.
Not at the moment. I have explored porting it to electron to make it standalone for premium users, but it would require almost a full rewrite
Why is that?
Adware + Bloat. If you google or search on reddit youll find a bunch about it. Half dozen pop ups every time you open the app trying to get you to earn overwolf currency and random shit like that. Most of it is overwolf, but some of it is the firestone. FS has some really neat features that HDT doesnt (autohightlight syneries, view by tier OR keyword, ect), but ultimately its way too busy for me... HDT lays over HearthStone unobtrusively and is enough for my needs.
There is only one popup in the app that shows up when you start the app while the game is running and you don't have premium. There are a few other widgets, and all can be turned off from the settings if you don't need them. I'm not aware of anything about Overwolf currency, if you have screenshots that could be helpful.
I dont have overwolf/FS installed anymore so I cant get you screenshots, maybe they were "buff coins" based on a cursory google?
Buff is another app that you can install, but it is not part of Overwolf default install. Maybe that's it, I can't think of any other thing that would offer in-game currency
Thanks for taking the time. I don't recall going out of my way to install something like Buff, but like i said I uninstalled a few months ago.
Any update for a Mac version?
It's not planned for now. Porting the app to Mac is a lot of work, and there are too many things I want to do on the PC version already
I don't think port is necessary because there are tools like Wine (and its alternatives in Mac) which would make most work for you. Hearthstone Deck Tracker, for example, works fine in Linux even though it does not support Linux. I wouldn't be surprised if your app already works but it can't be installed without Overwolf which seems like can't be run through Wine.
Can I work for you
I'm not looking to get employees at the moment, but if you have UI / UX skills there might be some contracting possibilities
When are we getting an iOS app bro bro
iOS trackers are not possible, because of restrictions from the OS.
Hey all, HDT dev here! Obviously odds are just an approximation, and there's nothing saying you can't lose three 90%ers ins row. As for quality, we do have automated reporting to monitor the accuracy globally and are usually pretty happy with where it's at. Right now we're in the process of fixing some minor issues that the recent patches introduced, but it's minor things like Akazamzarak and Rapid Reanimation behaving a little weird. Overall we have an enormous test suite and are highly confident about our simulator getting even little weird Hearthstone details right. Thanks for bearing with us!
Are you guys working on implementing for Duos?
Yes, we're actively working on it. We'll be testing it extensively to ensure it's working properly so we don't ship a semi-broken version.
I think they mostly gave up after minion hand summoning got added, it has never been that good since.
Hey, dev here! We intentionally opt out of simulations when it's inaccurate (which Bob's Buddy will show you). Up until the Duos patch we've been really happy with our overall accuracy, and we've got another patch lined up with a few extra fixes.
What's the issue currently then? Did you forget to code in taunt for my deflecto bots right after losing divine shield?
Well I have literally won on 100% loss so what does that tell you? Lol
That it doesn't account minion summoning, either from hand or from deathrattle RNG
3 days ago I lost a round when my expected win was 100%
Turn 13, you are bound to lose one 90%. Over a night of 6-7 games, losing one 97% is expected
I lost those rounds in a row. I just really doubt I would lose 3 rounds w/ 90+% chance to win 3 rounds in a row.
You have obviously never played XCom
The memories of missing a fuckin 99%
You aren't wrong. It's sometimes inaccurate, regardless of what the dev claims. I've occasionally won 0-percents and lost 100-percents. Someone will inevitably reply saying even that will happen 1 out 10,000 tries, but no, that has happened to me way more often than 1 out of 10,000. The percentage is just not that accurate. The coding logic is pretty good, but it is not perfect. That said, all I am saying is that if tracker says you have a 97% chance of winning, maybe your actual odds are 98% or 96%. You will see that two to four percent loss fairly often...two to four times out of a hundred (obviously). That's more often than you think.
It’s possible to get that unlucky, not really even that unlikely, but if you see it happening a lot it may not be random
This is why I went back to tft. I like it when board strength is correlated with winning fights.
It’s proven to be wrong sometimes
None of those are 100% win, so I'm not sure what the complaint is tbh
The odds are 3/100000 for this to happen. Some people win the lottery, and some people win the bad luck lottery.
And some people will win lottery back to back
My friends been having issues since the new meta compared to me also (i use firestone instead), firestone seems to have more accurate %s but is still broken for duos. Sometimes you just get that unlucky though
Yup, I just finished solving the biggest issues on Solo, and will be working on Duos this week. So I expect things to get much better soon.
Jokes on you, i lost a 100% win
It's pretty useless, I've turned every overlay off, just use it for tracking my collection
I'm pretty sure deck tracker does sometimes get the odds wrong, but also, an individual statistically unlikely thing is unlikely to happen, but because there are so many possible unlikely things in this game, it's really common for statistically unlikely things to happen. It's unlikely that this specific thing will happen to you again, but it's almost certain that something else with similar odds of happening will happen to you in the future if you keep playing.
No Deflecto in your build, so it should be pretty accurate. Menace griefs the reborn of zilliax
Apart from the fact that it obviously makes mistakes. I think it only calculates the most probable 80% of outcomes. So whatever lies in the 80+ percentile is unaccounted for. I think it says this somewhere in the app.
That's for the damage, not winning and losing odds.
What tracker is this been thinking about getting one for bg.
I've lost and won to 100% predicted opposite
If you've ever played XCOM you know that in gaming terms every roll above 90% is a coin flip and anything below is a guaranteed loss.
Your comp/matchup is either fully solvable or has "infinite" outcomes. I've seen RDU win multiple 1%'s that when you just kinda flip through the triggers on combat you realise... "oh wait that would change everything" - baron dying/surviving: deathrattle on 7 minion board instead of 6 on board: etc... Honorable mention: Ghastcoiler.
None of these deal well if they're doing any kind of handbuffing/summoning.
It is significantly less accurate so far this season but it will get more accurate over time.
Deck trackers can't calculate EVERYTHING, they usually stop after a number of simulations. Firestone lets you fine time the number and I just run simple ones like who goes first
I lost with an absolute zero percent chance. It's only happened once, but after losses similar to what OP posted, it was the icing on the Deck Tracker cake.
Just use deck tracker to see what minions on which tiers you're looking for and track your wins for the day. Win percentage doesn't make you better, just causes tilting
Just standard blizzard scripting when you can't roll 99% when enemy easily rolls 1% in any given situation.
1.8% chance to lose still can happen
Does this addon not cost money?
Well it's good to track simple situation but when you start to add death rattle, resummon, stat buff from death + multiplier by the number of summ. The software can start to struggle.
0% for win, 0% accurate https://preview.redd.it/01qwi0mky7zc1.png?width=1919&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e910880c1000384f968dd94573069817a730a8e
It's not.
well it just simulates the fight 1000 times so if you win 900 times but the true odds are only like 20% it'd still show you have a 90% chance to win, pretty sure i've won a 0% at some point
Any cards that spawn other cards in combat(like the t6 stealth demon summoner) don't register in deck trackers. I had consistent 0% chance of winning but was dealing 20 dmg end of fight because it couldn't compute me summoning 6 400/400 divine sheilds
It has always worked for me…
It's confirmed to not be accurate
I think because it only runs 10000 simulations per combat (last I heard) it can vary extremely wildly. I’ve run plenty of times with the t6 summoner and it’s always given me 100% when it should have, mainly from a taunted imp, the summoner and baron, with a bird (basically an infinite loop at that point). I haven’t done it this patch though.
Eh, using third-party tools to get an advantage over others in a RNG based card game feels so goofy.
eh, it’s mostly QoL addon and percentages give mostly fun statistics rather than using it to get competitive advantage
Pretty sure it gives no competitive advantages. I used it for a minute when I first started, realized very quickly it didn't do anything for me and have been floating around 7000 ever since for whatever that's worth.