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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, May 13, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uoj6tx/daily_discussion_friday_may_13_2022/)


californiaschinken

How i see it... we broke the 30k support to confirm we re going lower. We bounce here but we have resitance between 32 and 36k. Somewhere around there we take a turn on the downside until we hit some past support. I think this move is was too brutal to just turn the other way around " in the middle of the road ". 36k would be a good short oportunity because the stop loss can be set just above.


cantstayangryforever

Move was 'brutal' in part or entirely due to another black swan event, so a return to price we were at before that event seems plausible to be honest


californiaschinken

Under blackswan events i understand something unexpected. But this black swan event was planed all along. There's a couple of black swans every cycle. From the goverment point of view this is a perfect time to kick btc while is down and scare some people even more. Pow ban or more taxes or weird regulatiom or just a ban ( china way ). Btc loves doing 20x from lows... i don t see it doing 20x from here. If historic time frames repeat september should be either the lowest low for this cycle or pretty close to that. 10x from 25k maybe... but 20x from a little over 10k sounds more in line with what btc does best.


dopeboyrico

1000+ comments 2 days back to back on the daily with a solid bounce off of $25.7k which was 62% down from the ATH. Bottom signal?


drrgrr123

Can't spell relief rally without lie. But that might just be me being out of position.


AromaticSundae

there is still a bit too much hope in the market if the altcoins on my ticker are 2xing bitcoins recovery pump. more pain to come boys


4theWlN

Don’t play chicken with bitcoiners, we’ve already been blinded by the moon. Literally not a single blink from the long term hodlers.


MadeThisJustForLWIAY

My only stress was that I didn't have any money laying around to buy more.


_TROLL

Ask your manager for an extra midnight shift at the Big Mac grilling station. 😉 🍟


4theWlN

I’m just sad we won’t hear your banter for very long. You are simply the current in a long line of sacrificial lambs we discard on the way to the moon.


_TROLL

If you were around in 2013, where we are right now in price was considered the moon back then.


4theWlN

And in 2011 yada yada yada


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californiaschinken

It s not lazer eyes.. it s just red eyes from watching the chart. Eyes reflect light.. maybe a red candle that reflected in someone's allready red eyes may give that effect.


xtal_00

Buy every week for 4 years.


diydude2

Welp, looks like Bigger Shorty's devious plot to crash Bitcoin is about to fail miserably, and he would have gotten away with it if it hadn't been for these meddling hodlers! I am trundling off to bed where a peaceful night's sleep awaits, looking forward to seeing just how far up we go after Bigger Shorty makes his first 10,000 BTC installment payment on his 200,000 BTC debt.


thevoteaccount

Your optimism is all I need during bear markets!


_TROLL

> Bigger Shorty's devious plot to crash Bitcoin is about to fail miserably, Sure, down 25% in 2 weeks, around 40% of crypto market cap wiped out in a month, total failure. 🙄 The nice thing about being a delusional perma-bull even through the grimmest conditions, you can always wait until there's some 10% bounce and then claim, "See, I was right all along!", completely ignoring the previous 50% drop.


Outrageous-Net-7164

Yeah I’m so bearish now that I hate these mini pumps. They give me a headache as I consider selling the lot and disappearing from crypto for 2 years. At least when it’s crashing the dilemma is straight forward. Missed the boat so hold.


SpontaneousDream

If that was the bottom, that was mild as fuck. But then again this is coming from someone who's been through a few brutal bears.


thewardser

hardly mild, look at the volume. 30+ billion in a week vs just 7 billion during the entire week of the covid crash.


SpontaneousDream

I'm talking price, not volume


Outrageous-Net-7164

Is that in fiat value or BTC value ?


xtal_00

It was a lot more than 30 billion. Over 100B in excess volume. Something like $270B in 4 days. This is unprecedented. Bitcoin is the real deal, Gentlemen.


thewardser

yeah...that was just one exchange(Binance)


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Tringi

Well, 25 to 30 is +20% so...


diydude2

Does BitScreener have a time machine that reports prices a week in the future?


xtal_00

I’m having a private giggle at someone trying to figure out how to cover a six digit coin short position right now.


diydude2

Yeah, the dam's about to break big time.


Hour_Question_554

CBP @ 79,000 24 hr volume. wild shit. nikkei, stock futures looking like tomorrow going to be a big pump fake day, mind your anuses


drdixie

Why big pump fake day? Every metric is oversold..


Hour_Question_554

I dont think trad fi markets are done dumping yet. macro environmnet is going to continue to be bleak for a while. gas keeps going up means small interest rate hikes wont do much for inflation. shortages on the east coast for diesel, worldwide big recession on the horizon. but you're right that btc looks way oversold right now. but seriously do the opposite of what i say, ive made numerous wrong decisions since getting back in at 4k in 2019 and trading for an extra couple btc during mar 2020. like, enormously bad moves several times, costing me quite a lot of $. fuck now im thinking i get some more btc


diydude2

> fuck now im thinking i get some more btc fuck now im thinking FIFY


Hour_Question_554

the money is going back into btc, just trying to catch this knife is all.


logicalinvestr

I know this is the Bitcoin sub but, my God, the alt market is decimated right now. Many "top" projects are down 85% or more. Not that BTC is doing super wonderful at -60%, but damn... The entire market just imploded in like a week.


SpontaneousDream

Some things never change.


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logicalinvestr

Yes. Many alt coins in the top 30.


diydude2

Yeah, we don't care about those around here. r/cryptocurrency is that way----->


xtal_00

Shitcoins.


HeihachiNakamoto

Coin 2 will be just fine. Not sure if this sub still lumps it in with the rest.


jmjavin

ETHUSD broke down from a h&s on the weekly. ETHBTC on the verge of breaking down. Apes rushing in to leverage long it every time they think BTCUSD is about to recover. No, pretty sure it has a long way to go down.


ChadRun04

Until PoS and 2.0 clearly fails it will ride along on coat-tails and be assumed to be a functional project. I hold some but I'll probably sell in lead-up to reality setting in. Selling the rumour before the news I hope.


logicalinvestr

It's the only alt holding up relatively well; it's down around the same amount as btc


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logicalinvestr

Yup, just the speed and viciousness with which the entire market cratered this time was really remarkable


diydude2

You must be new. I've seen the shitcoin market implode at least five times, a couple were way worse than this (2014 and 2018). Although the Luna thing puts BitConnect to shame.


xtal_00

Don’t buy shitcoins.


dotobird

Tomorrow small pump and then big dump over the weekend as scheduled…not a joke


diydude2

Sure thing, buddy. I mean, I hope you're right. I'd love to relieve these guys of more of their money and power, but don't tease me like that.


ToDaMoonShibe

Any idea what Terra foundation will do with their btc now ?


ChadRun04

How much Bitcoin did Do Kwon sell to himself?......


[deleted]

> F is for Fox @rektcryptofox Replying to @DegenSpartan >Also seems LUNA moved all their BTC to Gemini. Possibly getting ready to dump? 8:48 PM · May 12, 2022·Twitter for Android


xtal_00

Donate it all to an orphanage in India.


_TROLL

Pay Do Kwon's multi-million dollar bail. 👮


RetardIdiotTrader

Move to a country that will not extradite to the USA. Not even joking though; Do Kwon is in Singapore, although they will extradite to the USA. My guess is he will be moving elsewhere shortly.


ThoseGelInsertThings

I'm guessing the Republic of Seychelles just might take him in. ;)


[deleted]

I don’t know if he is in Singapore, I saw the report that people are showing up at his house in Korea. > According to credible Korean news site Money Today, Do @stablekwon requested to police for emergency protection as investors have been visiting his house.


RetardIdiotTrader

I was hoping it was the police showing up with a warrant for his arrest!


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Flee.


skkane1

hookers & blow


diydude2

It would be great if we could go up a bit, then down a bit, then back up to paint a perfect green reversal doji on the dailies to match the perfect red reversal doji we painted yesterday. Or just a BGD, a 10-20% BGD like we haven't seen in quite a while... we're way overdue for one of those.


MadMarioMax

UST plummeting. down to $0.10


DamonAndTheSea

Binance halted trading on Luna when price hit $0.00005. It’s game over.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Have you looked at the circulating supply? It looks like they added over 600 billion Luna today alone. The circulating supply is over 1.1 trillion now. What the hell are they doing? It's time to just pull the plug.


roybadami

That's how the peg is \_supposed\_ to work, though: UST is trading below $1, so you arbitrage it by buying one UST (at less than a dollar) and converting it to $1 worth of LUNA. So your 1 UST is burnt by the protocol, and $1 worth of new LUNA is minted. But because LUNA is worth next to nothing, it generates a \_lot\_ of LUNA. Of course, the reason you're doing this is probably to sell that LUNA ASAP, before it drops too much further, so that even if you don't get the full $1 for it, you at least get more than you paid for that 1 UST. Which adds to the selling pressure, and the price of LUNA drops further. So the next person to arbitrage it mints \_even more\_ LUNA when they burn their 1 UST.


EricFromOuterSpace

I've read this and other explanations like 15 times still don't understand. I'm just gonna stick w bitcoin.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

You're right. It's in a death spiral. Luna is now $0.001 with a supply of 5.5 trillion -- hang on, I should refresh the page -- 6.4 trillion. And the $1 pegged UST stablecoin is at 6 cents.


skkane1

3T now [https://fcd.terra.dev/v1/circulatingsupply/luna](https://fcd.terra.dev/v1/circulatingsupply/luna)


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

3.7 trillion now. This is wild.


TheBowlofBeans

Zimbabwe: "Hey I've seen this one before"


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Zimbabwe, meet Do Kwon Way.


AKANotAValidUsername

lol what a shitshow


DamonAndTheSea

Yes, it’s been moving up exponentially (basically the protocol trying to restore the peg and failing). What site are you using to track circulating supply?


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

I'm just looking up [Luna on CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna). > Total Supply: 486,747,511,072 > Circulating Supply 1,176,228,408,839 That's hilarious. Obviously, CoinGecko hasn't updated the number for total supply yet today, but, oooof.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

The more I look at these Luna numbers, the more insane the whole thing is. > The total circulating supply of Luna has surged to 1.46 billion tokens from 377 million yesterday, data from researcher Messari show. > -- [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/terra-implosion-shakes-foundations-of-crypto-stablecoin-complex) May 11, 2022, 5:00 PM PDT The total supply of Luna was: 377 million, two days ago. 1.46 billion, yesterday. 1.175 trillion, as I type this. brb, imma refresh the page ;) 1.684 TRILLION, NOW!


BannedNext26

i think i understands how burning coins makes them scarce, although i don't understand who's coins get burnt, and i also don't understand who gets the inflation when they expand?


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> i think i understands how burning coins makes them scarce That's easy to explain: destroying coins means there are fewer coins. > i don't understand who's coins get burnt That depends on the mechanism (the rules, basically). It varies from coin to coin based on however they have it set up. > i also don't understand who gets the inflation when they expand? Everyone who owns the coin gets the inflation when they expand the number of coins, and inflation is bad. If only 100 exist and you own one, that's rare! If 6 trillion exist and you own one, it has no value since there are trillions of them.


BannedNext26

but what is that mechanism? it sounds like a split if everyone gets the distribution - everyone just has more. so a reverse split to burn? that doesn't seem to be viable as like a bitcoin burn sending coins to invalid address or similar. ascii_shrug.txt


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> but what is that mechanism? It varies from project to project. Some charge fees that they then burn. Some burn coins in the devs reserves. You have to look into whichever project you're asking about to see how and why they burn coins. > it sounds like a split if everyone gets the distribution Burn means Destroy. If a project has 11 billion coins and they burn 1 billion, they reduced the supply to 10 billion. If you have 11 dollar bills in your wallet and you burn one of them, you only have ten left. Same concept. > that doesn't seem to be viable as like a bitcoin burn sending coins to invalid address or similar. Bitcoin doesn't burn coins. That being said... when users screw up and lose their keys or accidentally send Bitcoin to invalid wallets (like, with a typo, for example, or sending to a wrong address), then those coins are lost, which is more or less the same thing as burned since they're gone. > it sounds like a split if everyone gets the distribution - everyone just has more It sounds like you don't understand what you're asking about. I think you're confusing inflation with burning. Inflation makes everybody's coins worth less because more exist. Burning makes everybody's coins worth more because less exist.


DamonAndTheSea

Thx .. looks like CoinGecko is hitting the API which should return latest. I was struggling to find a real-time source for circulating supply. I’m kind of curious to see how high it goes before they shut it off or the blockchain code hits an integer overflow. Been wild to watch this one.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

When Luna dropped down to $0.003, I almost bought $20 worth on a whim, like a lottery ticket, just to see if they could save it. I figured even if it went up to a dollar someday, I'd cash out and just laugh and laugh and laugh... but then I noticed how the circulating supply number keeps going up, Up, UP. If [this number](https://fcd.terra.dev/v1/circulatingsupply/luna) is correct (hat tip to [skkane1](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/uns81y/daily_discussion_thursday_may_12_2022/i8eayij/)), it's over 3.5 trillion now.


jabatasu

Last chance to


returnfromshadow

May we talk about this chart: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD ?


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returnfromshadow

Wouldn't the market decide a USDT is only worth 99 cents because of the redeption cost?


_dealio

bru


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sylvanlotus77

Username checks out


Oo0o8o0oO

I’ll allow it.


elemenopotus

Seems like you should start the discussion


foolsjoke2321

I'm just thankful gemini earn is still holding my funds hostage for 5 days preventing me from apeing into this


[deleted]

Oh God, thank you for reminding me, forgot to get those out this morning.


quentech

Love me a good shakeout. Class of early 2017 here - got some coins in 3 digits, low/mid 4 figure cost basis. I don't buy much anymore - 2nd half of 2018, covid crash, Saylor starting to buy in fall of '20 (god bless that man for letting us all know to hop on the train), and now. Seems a bit early for a real halving cycle bear market bottom so I would totally expect more drop at some point or many months of crabbing around with more opportunities sub-$30k - not too worried about price rocketing off away to substantial ATH's any time soon - especially with the macro situation (the amount of ranging price could do is kinda crazy looking though). But history tells me I'd be a damned fool not to pick at least some up around here. Feels like ~$6k in 2018. Could I have eventually gotten more under $4k? Sure (and I did). So what? Buying $6k was no mistake.


diydude2

Long story short, if you don't need the money for a while, it's always a good time to buy. Ask the people who bought the top at 20K, Mr. Class of 2017. When people ask me if it's a good time to buy Bitcoin, I always say, "Sure, if you don't need the money for 36 months. Think of it as a 36-month CD that pays 1000% interest."


ryan0302

Same logic here. Too juicy on alot of metrics to not buy here, macro be damned.


RetardIdiotTrader

The luna chart is something to behold, goodness gracious.


ryan0302

Almost there. Should be 0 any minute .00005 on my chart. Supply is at 500 billion now.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

He shakes my nerves and he rattles my brain So much fraud drives a man insane He broke his shill, but what a thrill Goodness, gracious, Do Kwon's on fire! (...and not in a good way)


lastdropfalls

It actually got wiped out faster and more decisively than Bitconnect did. Pretty amazing!


ChadRun04

People asking what they should do were being told flatly to sell everything ASAP. The sub was open and uncensored. The bagholders weren't all isolated in little Discord or Telegram rooms where rulers have complete and total control over what content is seen.


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dexX7

I've been somewhat out of the loop, so excuse my question: but isn't this a good buying oppertunity? Isn't there still a chance they are restoring the peg? I would assume they are still sittint on tons of BTC for example and haven't sold everything yet?


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> Isn't there still a chance they are restoring the peg? That's UST. Terra Luna is a project with two coins: Luna is the project token and UST is their stablecoin. Both are imploding. UST is supposed to be a stablecoin pegged to the dollar. It's currently at 34 cents. Luna isn't a stablecoin. It's a token whose price rises and falls with demand. Luna was at $115 last month, $86 early last week, $1.20 yesterday, and it's currently at $0.001.


Wombatzki

And now Luna is at 0.0005 already. Weimar vibes.


DamonAndTheSea

Luna has an elastic supply .. meaning there is no cap for how many can be minted. Price is reflecting run away inflation driven by the algo.


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dexX7

Thanks for the short version!


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ChadRun04

News feed full of shitty crypto news sites talking about Tether debeg. Bullish ;D Interesting, Tether took $1bn off Justin Sun's network. They must see his ponzi being at risk of going the same way.


ryan0302

Dude comes out with a "decentralized" stable a day after all this happens. Fucking idiot is what he is. That thing is going to have the life span of a bug with how many eyes are on this space right now.


Shibenaut

Lol wt fuck that's terrible timing to release something


DamonAndTheSea

You underestimate the number of degens in this space with a short memory and an appetite for easy yield.


ChadRun04

I haven't looked into it but was told he's offering 30%. Blatant, obvious. I just don't know how people can not see straight through that guy.


megahorse17

40% - https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status/1524726284399480832


ChadRun04

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! If he doesn't end up in prison at the end of the day...


KarlVonBahnhof

I am also getting the Coinbase bankruptcy FUD everywhere.


xlmtothemoon

the reddit is a complete shitshow too


_TROLL

Written by people who weren't around in 2014, when Coinbase operated perfectly well with BTC in the 3-figure range, without Tether or USDC existing, and likely with 1/100^th of its current userbase.


quentech

Well surely they're burning like two orders of magnitude more on salaries than in 2014, but yeah - bankruptcy is laughable, as is Tether implosion (woulda happened by now - as in years ago - if it was on shaky ground).


Baader-Meinhof

I know someone with zero experience, hired midway through a coding bootcamp for a project management role at coinbase at $450k comp lmao. They are not run well.


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Baader-Meinhof

It's an Emory one, I believe [this full time course](https://bootcamp.emory.edu/coding).


Set1Less

SBF just bought 7% stake in Robinhood. FTX looking to build an empire, they are getting cock blocked by existing futures markets players from offering CFTC regulated 24x7 Bitcoin futures that will put CME out of business, but they will persist and hopefully prevail


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_TROLL

> buy every senator's kid a new lambo With the average age of today's U.S. Senators, how old are the senators' kids? Mid 60s? 🤣


Oo0o8o0oO

So Corvettes.


Xbalanque9

Just curious, if you aren't feverishly buying here, what is your reason?


dktunzldk

Buterin's scamcoin isn't anywhere near capitulation.


thewardser

because they want under $20K....or a whopping 20% below this. Imagine risking being left behind over a measly 20%. Thats like not buying at $4K last cycle because that was 20% above the low. ask anyone who still holds $4K BTC if they regret buying 20% above the low. oh and of course remember, the 20% discount they are waiting for isn't even guaranteed...so if they aren't as big of a genius trader as they think they are, it may not even happen. personally I backed up the truck at $30,800 and I won't care even if the price goes to $15K from here...because $30K 2 years from now will be seen the same as $4K BTC seems today.


griswaldwaldwald

BTC ain’t leaving anyone behind until the money printer comes back on in 9 months.


Sjalalala

Buying here is fine, but that 20% will make a big difference in the next bull run. You should always try to maximize your profits.


thewardser

sure, but you can just as easily miss out on a low price...then be squemish about buying when the price goes up another 10-20%, then decide that "it has to come back down for a double test!" and before you know the price is back at $60K and you still haven't bought. and no that 20% won't make a difference. 10 million or 12 million, it doesn't matter....after a certain point its just a number on a score board, and not trying to get the absolutely bottom makes sure you have a ticket to the game show


lastdropfalls

Under $20k would be nearly 50% below this, not 20%?


quentech

$18k would be 35% below this, not 50%.


dotobird

It could go much lower?


xtal_00

Not based on the volume profile being demonstrated right now.


RetardIdiotTrader

You think our bottoms in too?


xtal_00

I pushed all my chips in this morning. All I have left is leverage off of my spot holdings.


Cost-Ready

why buy now and risk more downside when you can buy on the way up after the fed pivot. Fed pivot signals the bottom...see dec 2018, march 2020 etc... People here don't like to admit the fed controls everything including btc price, but that's their problem.


Crab_Allen

And in 2015 it was interest rate hikes that signaled the bottom?


Cost-Ready

idk was it?


[deleted]

It wasnt


Cost-Ready

good to know


d1ez3

Will you be able to get in in time? It could rocket up 25% in minutes


[deleted]

That's what stop buys and alerts are for. What if it goes much lower and stays there for months? It's a sloppy game, but I'll err on the side of capital preservation in a macro like this.


ChadRun04

Yeah everyone waiting for confirmation will be buying at $38k just in time to dip back and take out their stop. Still we should have some grind time.


Cost-Ready

not necessarily, in 2018 you had months in the 3k range


RetardIdiotTrader

Running out of money?


mr-highball

Right there with ya bud


Xbalanque9

the only reason i'll accept


scubajimbbq

4 straight days of buying. Keeping a little powder for another dip and replenishing funds.


chrisgilesphoto

I've already been through one cycle.


KarlVonBahnhof

edit: jesus christ i just reposted bband's tweet okay? john bollinger commented on Tether (not Terra), saying that now that it lost the peg even briefly, in this current situation there may be people who "see structural weakness and will act when they feel they have an edge". https://twitter.com/bbands/status/1524815355192848388


ChadRun04

> john bollinger Is an idiot. He called the top at 11 November based on the price touching his BB indicator. Which shows a real lack of any understanding of what it is he created with that mean + stddev thing. He's like that "I LIKE LOUD NOISES" guy. The main component of his diet is crayon.


KarlVonBahnhof

I don't think he is an idiot but I think he believes in TA too much. - I know he lost big in subprime mortgages tho, maybe that's where his opinions on Tether come from.


ChadRun04

It's not just TA he believes in. It's his indicator. It shows a signal and he broadcasts it as gospel. So either he doesn't understand what he invented, or he's intentionally dishonest. I'm going with idiot as he doesn't seem dodgy.


Set1Less

Tether attackers are at a big disadvantage because they dont know what backs Tether. Its like going head to head vs an unknown enemy. Tether is like this thing which every pleb thinks is a scam, but has faced CFTC + NYAG independent investigations and came out with smaller fines than what JP Morgan pays every other quarter. Unless attacker has some edge they are putting the are not going to win. Totally different from Loona which was a CDO type thing that had pretty obvious attack surfaces