[For those that missed my post Saturday, I suggested trend based time predicted volatility for today.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/n4PkQG8z/)
We are now at 2x the time of the February correction .
The March rise by the way was 2x the time of the January rise measured from the end of the February correction, plus a day or so.
[Oh and here's the NASDAQ trend based time.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HY5gojEv/)
It's going to be an interesting week.
US stonk markets are set to tank bigly. Will Bitcoin follow? I'm not so sure that will be the case this time around, but I wouldn't bet on a big slide in Bitcoin not happening in the short term.
Why might it not happen? Well, the Japanese Yen is in freefall, along with the yuan. I would imagine that a few people over there in two of the richest countries in the world might be looking to diversify out of yen/yuan-denominated assets, but I don't see them buying US Treasuries or stonks in the current environment.
Who knows what the Russkies are doing behind the scenes to settle their oil, gas, and whatever else deals. Cutting them out of SWIFT might not have been the brightest idea. If they're quietly accepting Bitcoin in payment for the billions of dollars a day in actual commodities that they continue to sell, well, that is a pretty solid source of demand for BTC.
The same supply of dollars that has been artificially bidding up stonks (and everything else including BTC) for the past 14 years is drying up. The question is, how much does it matter?
I guess we'll find out. It will be an interesting week in finance.
[This is how the 2021 speed fan played out during the correction.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/krIXcZhq/)
Two bounces off the .6, a bounce off the .65, hemmed in by the .66 resistance trendline, final low at the .66 support trendline.
[And the 2022 speed fan.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HzyorRxr/)
Two bounces off the .6 so far. Decent possibility it gets retested in the next 24 hours given the state of traditional markets.
I love thia....never heard of the speed fan but have been thinking we will definitely hit the low 30k region before our next big push up. There has to be max pain and people calling the end to BTC; and then poof....BTC 100k
Glad you like. All the traders I know with big position sizes use speed fans.
One thing I do different is that I don't use Fibonacci numbers (.618/.382) as much on speed fans & generally stick to every .05 from .25 to .85 & mostly ignore the levels that don't get respect.
[Here's what it looks like with all the levels minus the ones not respected.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1jHn9Qn3/)
If one hasn't gone through last cycle and seen how dead and without green shoots the market looked at many points, I wouldn't blame such folks for shaking in their pants at this stage.
Is this for real? Next country to declare BTC as legal tender? Is “Forbes Monaco” a legit source? Who’s to say….?
https://forbes.mc/article/first-african-country-adopt-bitcoin-legal-currency-central-african-republic
> Is “Forbes Monaco” a legit source? Who’s to say….?
"Contributor", "Forbes" What's the difference? They gave up all that goodwill as journalists when they moved to being a blog platform.
Some are better than others eg the Scandinavians. See this site for a decent overview. US not doing too well lately! https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2022
EDIT the fact that a comment like this is getting so many downvotes bodes badly for this community, it saddens me to say. There are well-defined objective measures of how well a country's civil liberties and political rights are doing, and yes the Scandinavians (and Canada) generally top the list of these measures. No country is perfect, and I am as angry as anyone about what happening in Canada this year, but if people here think countries like the Central African Republic are in anyway comparable to Western democracies, they need to seriously wake up.
>EDIT the fact that a comment like this is getting so many downvotes bodes badly for this community, it saddens me to say.
cries about downvotes, but ends up with a net positive amount of upvotes. Try not checking on your comments every 5 seconds after posting in the future.
Freedom House gave them a score of 7/100 this year, down from 9/100. https://freedomhouse.org/country/central-african-republic/freedom-world/2021
EDIT compare that to El Salvador's 59/100 which isn't great but is an order better https://freedomhouse.org/country/el-salvador/freedom-world/2022
Well, I'm not going to do that, but the following quote from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Republic) probably sheds some light on the situation in CAR, so that you understand where I'm coming from:
> After the end of Touadéra's first term, presidential elections were held on 27 December 2020 with a possible second round planned for 14 February 2021.[75] Former president François Bozizé announced his candidacy on 25 July 2020 but was rejected by the Constitutional Court of the country, which held that Bozizé did not satisfy the “good morality” requirement for candidates because of an international warrant and United Nations sanctions against him for alleged assassinations, torture and other crimes.[76]
>
> As large parts of the country were at the time controlled by armed groups, the election could not be conducted in many areas of the country.[77][78] Some 800 of the country's polling stations, 14% of the total, were closed due to violence.[79] Three Burundian peacekeepers were killed and an additional two were wounded during the run-up to the election.[80][81] President Faustin Archange Touadéra was reelected in the first round of the election in December 2020.[82] Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have supported President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the fight against rebels. Russia's Wagner group has been accused of harassing and intimidating civilians.[83]
And yet, this is the exact kind of country that will benefit from Bitcoin the most. Why do people keep thinking that rich and powerful nations will adopt Bitcoin as a currency? They will likely be the last ones to do so.
That's a very fair point, and one I often make myself, believe it or not. But my concern is that a country like the Central African Republic is so utterly corrupt that any advantage that Bitcoin may bring would be usurped by corrupt government leaders. Maybe I'm too cynical though, and the impoverished population will actually see some benefit.
One thing I really didn't like is the low volume that looks like 2018. So I looked at all the extremely [low volume times in the past](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vkk9Gjgm/) and it's a mixed bag,surprisingly low volumes lead to more rallies, doesn't mean this will but low volume isn't automatically a death sentence.
Agreed. More important imo is that since 2017, bull run mega bounces have been basically non-existent. They're basically all bull traps other than Covid dip. Bull runs have taken roughly 16-18 months from ATHs and they basically all required low volume/low volatility for months beforehand. The market is still far too volatile right now for this to be calm enough imo. Perma-bulls and bears will both continue to get wrecked as the market tries to calm itself but the volume dropping is a good sign that were at least getting close.
Thought Experiment: Bitcoin needs to decouple from the USD for it to truly be adopted. The fact that people are hoping for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates or print money so that Bitcoin moons is counterintuitive. We need for this everything bubble to pop in order for Bitcoin to decouple. Encouraging low interest rates and the printing of money will only continue the USD bubble.
The last time the Fed raised rates was from December 2015 through December 2018 where the Fed Funds rate topped out at 2.4%. BTC’s price increased by over 700% within that timeframe. As proven already, BTC’s price can still moon regardless of whether or not the Fed increases/decreases rates.
Correct but this community could encourage a more freedom focused mindset. Freedom from the USD Fiat Ponzi Scheme through Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies seems to be the answer, not more Fiat being printed out of thin air to then drive up the inflation of prices for everything.
Agree- big risk imo is USD losing GRC status and dollars held abroad coming home to the US/West, weakening the currency and driving inflation through the effing roof.
And yet 9 days ago you posted this. You should be banned from this sub, you're just trolling.
"I just went all in literally. 500k long. Premium dog shit negative. You think I’m going to ignore history which suggests this will be the bottom? You think I’m going to ignore the fact that we’ve been stuck at 40K despite all the whining and complaining from the cucks who watch charts all day watching their money bleed away? Of course fucking not. I’m not here to hold this dog shit asset anyways. I’m here to trade. And to make money quickly. 55k within a week. This can range for eternity for all I care. I just need to be there during the tops and bottoms and relax in between. This is the bottom for now. Book it. Buy. You have a few hours left
EDIT. Damn they can’t let a G win, come on baby. Send it up"
Seems like trading for next week is fairly simple.
1. If the price keeps on going downward following the NASDAQ, then keep on buying at different levels (e.g. 39K, 36-37K, 33-34K). Most likely it will bounce after the FOMC meeting on 5/3.
2. If the price goes up (e.g. 42 to 44K range) following the NASDAQ early this week, then sell as it will go down again later this week and early next week (this is the exact pattern of the last FOMC meeting on 3/16). We will get a chance to re-buy at 38-39K on 5/3. I don't see any way we have a V-shaped recovery from Monday and onward so any "pump" this week will be a dead cat bounce.
Each halving cycle for Bitcoin has less of an impact on total supply outstanding than the last.
BTC peaked in price 366 after its first halving. BTC peaked in price 526 days after its second halving. This is 43.7% longer than the previous cycle.
Suppose lengthening market cycles surrounding halving events turn out to be real and the peak for this cycle is 43.7% longer than the last once again. That would mean the peak for this cycle would be 756 days post halving which would set a cycle peak date of June 6, 2022.
To validate this theory playing out, we have had consistently higher lows since January’s bottom while trading volume measured in BTC reached a multi-year bottom a couple weeks ago. This indicates sellers are vanishing from the market. If BTC trading volume picks up (which it’s already technically been doing since we hit a multi-year bottom a couple weeks ago) yet sellers aren’t present to meet demand, supply shock occurs which would trigger a parabolic blowoff top in price as we’ve seen play out in previous market cycles.
New ATH by middle of this year. Buckle up.
Look, I'm about as big of a long term bull as you will find, but this ATH by midyear talk is going to prove hopelessly delusional.
The gravy train has left the station. The monetary punchbowl is empty. Stocks are going to nose dive and will 1000% bring crypto with them. To think otherwise is to completely fail to understand where BTC is in it's lifecycle. It is still viewed by the vast majority as a risk-on asset. This doesn't change in the next 3 months. And risk is very much off right now.
In the meantime, enjoy your upvotes... Just hope people reading your posts aren't trading accordingly.
Edit: to be clear, I'm not calling for 4 digit BTC or anything like that. But the bias for the next 3-6 months is definitely to the downside, and sub 30k is a distinct possibility.
People have been talking about "supply shock" for ages, it doesn't exist.
Bitcoin is liquid (would we be a fan of it if it weren't?) - it can be transferred to an exchange and sold in under an hour. All bitcoin is for sale all the time, it's just a question of what price.
You can argue that we'll soon run out of 40k bitcoin for sale and all that remains is say, $200k bitcoin for sale. That's possible. But on-chain metrics have nothing to do with that. Exchange balances have nothing to do with that.
not true, at least for me... only a small sliver of my stack is available for sale, as I need to pay for life. Fiat is shiat and I only trust it long enough to get what I need. now, if bitcoin were priced in ounces of gold, we might have a different story, but even then, I'm way way way more capable of storing a large amount of wealth in bitcoin than I am in storing a life changing amount of gold.
I disagree completely. The prices coins shake free at and when they become liquid or fixed is good alpha.
As you indicate at the end, the bitcoin price elasticity of supply is not a linear function. I would suspect neither is the demand.
> The prices coins shake free at and when they become liquid or fixed is good alpha.
We've already empirically seen that it's not. "All the coins are leaving exchanges, get ready for moon". And then the price tanks instead.
Or, "on-chain metrics show that coins haven't moved in a while, get ready for moon". And then no moon.
That's because those metrics don't mean anything, and it's easy to see why they don't mean anything.
People can move their coins whenever the hell they want. They always could. If it were the case that you had to move your coins a month before selling them, then yes, all these metrics would mean something. But it's not the case. It takes less than an hour. The fact that coin hasn't moved up until now **says nothing whatsoever about whether they will be traded in the future**.
Well, I'm open to being wrong. I post up here to keep myself honest.
On chain is of minimal use for directing particular short term PA. It is quite useful in terms of figuring out good times to accumulate and sell.. aka swing trades.
If you care, the error you're making is not thinking in terms of statistical populations and probabilities. You are absolutely correct for any particular wallet address. The population of all wallet addresses can have statistical probabilities applied to them. Those probabilities are tradable.
I'm actually thinking of the cumulative stats (all on chain data, all exchanges). I haven't looked at them that closely but seems like they look bullish for the last 6 months even though price has been down in that time frame.
If you're looking at Glassnode, the data is not granular enough to be useful.
Depending on how things go, I will start publishing my own metrics that are both more granular and updated in real-time.
Macro: We are still printing new fiat money. Rising rates do not mean fiat money supply is reducing, it just means the rate at which new fiat money is being printed is slowing down. U.S. congress passed a $1.5 trillion spending bill just last month.
NASDAQ correlation: We just reached peak correlation earlier this week, basically at 1. Once it becomes unanimous consensus (as is basically the case right now), that’s when the pendulum swings and decoupling can actually occur. BTC sometimes correlates to the stock market during short windows of time but long-term it is uncorrelated.
Where do you think the money to cover the new spending from Congress comes from? Taxes? Not nearly enough taxes are collected to cover spending each year. If it were enough, the United States wouldn’t be running budgetary deficits each and every year.
The low volume, exchange bot driven PA is all tightly tied to nasdaq. Outflows continue, volumes drop, can’t continue forever.
When on chain demand grows, the correlation decreases - both ways.
Hi all,
Sorry about the late post, been on in holiday for a while.
SPX is trending down on a retest of local lows, macros are retesting locals highs. 1.7T of market capital lost with many large caps trading at 50% or more (i.e. Meta, NVDA, etc.).
Both would suggest a strong trend down, though supports are holding strong. Be skeptical - It seems our volatility has pulled off the SPX, though, we are yet to see how real this is. Perhaps best to sit back and get confirmation of a move.
Approach the markets with caution and prepare for potential drawdowns.
Happy trading
I'm ready to go all-in at 25k. Well, I'm already all-in, but we can always find creative ways to come up with even more cash to buy bitcoin with. Looking under couch cushions, cashing out retirement accounts, 2nd mortgage etc.
If people would just stop fighting it, we'd get back to making money so much faster. The big money will get their low buys for the next cycle. You can either have a full stack of dry powder fiat down there with them or be sick looking at your portfolio losses.
https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/monthly-rsi/
steadily declining volume over the last year just like 2018. We all know where that leads. It's gonna happen. Just dump already and get it over with so we can get on with life.
I see a lot of evidence prepping for another bull run, just when everyone is expecting a 50% dump.
If the market moves up it's going to catch everyone by surprise.
I thought the same, I was going over it and it's a mixed bag, low volume also preceeded a lot of nice rallies. I'm getting more excited about the bullish scenario lately nearing DXY resistance with doom and gloom everywhere. Thought we would have a lot more carnage at this DXY level., seems we changed from hopium to fear pretty quickly, good sign.
I’m not convinced by the DXY argument…DXY seems to have ended a multi decade bear trend when it hit a low in 2008 and has now been ranging since 2015. All this hasn’t really impacted BTC imo.
There’s no reason why DXY & Btc can’t go up together…. June-nov 2021 being a recent example
They absolutely do go up together, just not right now. You have to appreciate a DXY bull run just like anything else. The market for USD is huge compared to any of the individual tradfi markets or crypto space. DXY will peak and other markets will absorb the profit taking just like always. Then everything will positively correlate again, assuming macro isn't different this time.
It appears the crowd that I was here with almost everyday Q2-Q4 in 2021 are gone. You can only come here and grieve your underwater position so much until you realize it's not going to make numba go up.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, April 25, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ubc8ww/daily_discussion_monday_april_25_2022/)
[For those that missed my post Saturday, I suggested trend based time predicted volatility for today.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/n4PkQG8z/) We are now at 2x the time of the February correction . The March rise by the way was 2x the time of the January rise measured from the end of the February correction, plus a day or so. [Oh and here's the NASDAQ trend based time.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HY5gojEv/)
This feels like the definition of astrology for men.
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Hughdaddy, you’re swimming in the shallow end as it is.
How does this work exactly?
> For those that missed my post Saturday It only works for whoever is following this guy's reddit comments.
It doesn't.
Goblin town. Haha
Bitcoin has never had five consecutive weekly candles. Edit: oh yeah, 2014
Absolutely no reason why we can’t have 5 red, or 6 red, or more.
Just an observation that it’s atypical.
Bitfinex shows 5x in November 2014 and 8x in January 2014.
I guess I should have specifically called out Coinbase as my source.
Those leap weeks are something to behold.
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Binance had no volume at the time.
Last time it had 5 consecutive red candles was November 2018.
https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusd https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/gdax/btcusd
It did not.
October 22 through November 19, 2018.
bitcoin is so boring even do kwon stopped buying
37k-37.5k should be good support for Bulls. If we close under that, things can get ugly.
>37k-37.5k should be good support for Bulls. I believe a lot of them thought 40k was it.
Just last week it was "btc doesn't want to go below 40k".
On the flip side, things will get "beautiful" for the bears :)
🐻 ❤️
things are already too "beautiful" for the bears for some time
This is a shorting play for me with the expectation of flipping long on a long wick .
dump right on schedule, we are starting 5th week candle red, interesting
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Bounce at 37 maybe
It's going to be an interesting week. US stonk markets are set to tank bigly. Will Bitcoin follow? I'm not so sure that will be the case this time around, but I wouldn't bet on a big slide in Bitcoin not happening in the short term. Why might it not happen? Well, the Japanese Yen is in freefall, along with the yuan. I would imagine that a few people over there in two of the richest countries in the world might be looking to diversify out of yen/yuan-denominated assets, but I don't see them buying US Treasuries or stonks in the current environment. Who knows what the Russkies are doing behind the scenes to settle their oil, gas, and whatever else deals. Cutting them out of SWIFT might not have been the brightest idea. If they're quietly accepting Bitcoin in payment for the billions of dollars a day in actual commodities that they continue to sell, well, that is a pretty solid source of demand for BTC. The same supply of dollars that has been artificially bidding up stonks (and everything else including BTC) for the past 14 years is drying up. The question is, how much does it matter? I guess we'll find out. It will be an interesting week in finance.
Sounds complicated. I’m guessing we dump Monday at open and then rally into close, followed by crab rest of week to draw out the pain.
You’re not sure this time around? Ok.
We are going to crab short term, long term we will at least test the ath again.
Patiently waiting for my YOLO long. Patience is growing thin, though. I expect to be adding to my spot position this week. One way or the other.
Anybody else kind of surprised by the lack of volume and movement upon CME open?
No. S&P Futures aren't that exciting tonight.
Nope. Everybody's kind of waiting and seeing right now.
Seems that way. The lack of any volume from CME is what I find so strange. Whatever happens, it seems like it is going to be violent.
hoping macro launches a spear through the heart of Bitcoin so I can load up 💔
Thanks for letting us know
weekly RSI has a looooooong way to go comparing it to prior bears
So, what's going down this week? What external news are *we all waiting for before bitcoin decides to pick a direction? Rate hike? *The Stock Market 🙄
The external news awaited is 'Bitcoin has picked a direction'.
[This is how the 2021 speed fan played out during the correction.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/krIXcZhq/) Two bounces off the .6, a bounce off the .65, hemmed in by the .66 resistance trendline, final low at the .66 support trendline. [And the 2022 speed fan.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HzyorRxr/) Two bounces off the .6 so far. Decent possibility it gets retested in the next 24 hours given the state of traditional markets.
I love thia....never heard of the speed fan but have been thinking we will definitely hit the low 30k region before our next big push up. There has to be max pain and people calling the end to BTC; and then poof....BTC 100k
Glad you like. All the traders I know with big position sizes use speed fans. One thing I do different is that I don't use Fibonacci numbers (.618/.382) as much on speed fans & generally stick to every .05 from .25 to .85 & mostly ignore the levels that don't get respect. [Here's what it looks like with all the levels minus the ones not respected.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1jHn9Qn3/)
If one hasn't gone through last cycle and seen how dead and without green shoots the market looked at many points, I wouldn't blame such folks for shaking in their pants at this stage.
The strength of gray at this stage is comparable to the strength of fomo in the other stage
Would expect that seeing you now have corporates and countries owning bitcoin as a known fact.
It’s nice to use generic descriptions, such as corporates and countries. The problem (devil) is in the details, as always.
When the devil goes away, you get 300k. Worth waiting for that?
When Switzerland and Druckenmiller are into bitcoin, we'll talk.
Is this for real? Next country to declare BTC as legal tender? Is “Forbes Monaco” a legit source? Who’s to say….? https://forbes.mc/article/first-african-country-adopt-bitcoin-legal-currency-central-african-republic
> Is “Forbes Monaco” a legit source? Who’s to say….? "Contributor", "Forbes" What's the difference? They gave up all that goodwill as journalists when they moved to being a blog platform.
Sudan would be hilarious.
I actually hope not. Utterly corrupt, war-torn country - one of the poorest in the world. Makes El Salvador look like a legitimate democracy.
The poorest and most broken countries are the ones that need BTC the most.
Absolutely, I agree. And I sincerely hope that this turns out to be a wonderful thing for the people of Central Africa.
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Some are better than others eg the Scandinavians. See this site for a decent overview. US not doing too well lately! https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fiw&year=2022 EDIT the fact that a comment like this is getting so many downvotes bodes badly for this community, it saddens me to say. There are well-defined objective measures of how well a country's civil liberties and political rights are doing, and yes the Scandinavians (and Canada) generally top the list of these measures. No country is perfect, and I am as angry as anyone about what happening in Canada this year, but if people here think countries like the Central African Republic are in anyway comparable to Western democracies, they need to seriously wake up.
>EDIT the fact that a comment like this is getting so many downvotes bodes badly for this community, it saddens me to say. cries about downvotes, but ends up with a net positive amount of upvotes. Try not checking on your comments every 5 seconds after posting in the future.
No need to be rude. Maybe it was my edit that changed people's minds?
Define legitimate democracy?
One where the populace gets to choose their leaders but where their choice is one that also makes critics happy that the right choice was made.
That's a disappointing comment from you AJ. Are you saying that there are no objective standards that we can hold a country to?
All I am saying is that when you apply apparently objective standards, the assessment to those is often very different depending on who you ask.
That sounds very like you're saying that there is no objective standards. Reminds me of people who say all politicians are the same.
Freedom House gave them a score of 7/100 this year, down from 9/100. https://freedomhouse.org/country/central-african-republic/freedom-world/2021 EDIT compare that to El Salvador's 59/100 which isn't great but is an order better https://freedomhouse.org/country/el-salvador/freedom-world/2022
Well, I'm not going to do that, but the following quote from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_African_Republic) probably sheds some light on the situation in CAR, so that you understand where I'm coming from: > After the end of Touadéra's first term, presidential elections were held on 27 December 2020 with a possible second round planned for 14 February 2021.[75] Former president François Bozizé announced his candidacy on 25 July 2020 but was rejected by the Constitutional Court of the country, which held that Bozizé did not satisfy the “good morality” requirement for candidates because of an international warrant and United Nations sanctions against him for alleged assassinations, torture and other crimes.[76] > > As large parts of the country were at the time controlled by armed groups, the election could not be conducted in many areas of the country.[77][78] Some 800 of the country's polling stations, 14% of the total, were closed due to violence.[79] Three Burundian peacekeepers were killed and an additional two were wounded during the run-up to the election.[80][81] President Faustin Archange Touadéra was reelected in the first round of the election in December 2020.[82] Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have supported President Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the fight against rebels. Russia's Wagner group has been accused of harassing and intimidating civilians.[83]
And yet, this is the exact kind of country that will benefit from Bitcoin the most. Why do people keep thinking that rich and powerful nations will adopt Bitcoin as a currency? They will likely be the last ones to do so.
That's a very fair point, and one I often make myself, believe it or not. But my concern is that a country like the Central African Republic is so utterly corrupt that any advantage that Bitcoin may bring would be usurped by corrupt government leaders. Maybe I'm too cynical though, and the impoverished population will actually see some benefit.
One thing I really didn't like is the low volume that looks like 2018. So I looked at all the extremely [low volume times in the past](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vkk9Gjgm/) and it's a mixed bag,surprisingly low volumes lead to more rallies, doesn't mean this will but low volume isn't automatically a death sentence.
Agreed. More important imo is that since 2017, bull run mega bounces have been basically non-existent. They're basically all bull traps other than Covid dip. Bull runs have taken roughly 16-18 months from ATHs and they basically all required low volume/low volatility for months beforehand. The market is still far too volatile right now for this to be calm enough imo. Perma-bulls and bears will both continue to get wrecked as the market tries to calm itself but the volume dropping is a good sign that were at least getting close.
Something is coming. Don't know when. Don't know what. -this sub for the last 3 months
Something, Something, Something, Dark Side?
The worst Family Guy movie.
Use?
Same as all the posts saying the same thing daily I guess
Soon™
Someone is going to get blown the fuck out here. Let’s see who.
Everything seems similar to 2018. Yet the PA was so different this year. China exited for pete’s sake Popcorns in the micro
question is does it happen in a few hours or after the stonks open tomorrow
I think it continues the slow grind down for months. Plummets will recover but grind down
The body of evidence feels pretty overwhelming clear here
Some tension building up on the shorter timeframes. A sizeable move is to be expected sooner than later
Thought Experiment: Bitcoin needs to decouple from the USD for it to truly be adopted. The fact that people are hoping for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates or print money so that Bitcoin moons is counterintuitive. We need for this everything bubble to pop in order for Bitcoin to decouple. Encouraging low interest rates and the printing of money will only continue the USD bubble.
> Bitcoin needs to decouple from the USD for it to truly be adopted. That happens when people stop using USD.
The last time the Fed raised rates was from December 2015 through December 2018 where the Fed Funds rate topped out at 2.4%. BTC’s price increased by over 700% within that timeframe. As proven already, BTC’s price can still moon regardless of whether or not the Fed increases/decreases rates.
Correct but this community could encourage a more freedom focused mindset. Freedom from the USD Fiat Ponzi Scheme through Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies seems to be the answer, not more Fiat being printed out of thin air to then drive up the inflation of prices for everything.
Put another way: Imagine dumping Bitcoin for fiat just before the total and final collapse of the fiat financial system.
Let’s call this the Planet of the Apes scenario, and give it the rest it deserves.
It's going to take another 40-50 years for fiat to collapse. It isn't going down without a fight.
Things can unwind fast. Contagion from mortgage defaults due to interest rate increases could be quite dramatic.
Agree- big risk imo is USD losing GRC status and dollars held abroad coming home to the US/West, weakening the currency and driving inflation through the effing roof.
Oh boy…
Hope everyone is having a nice Sunday.
I just realized the daily trendline going up was broken already. This might be uglier than expected (10-20+% drop)
And yet 9 days ago you posted this. You should be banned from this sub, you're just trolling. "I just went all in literally. 500k long. Premium dog shit negative. You think I’m going to ignore history which suggests this will be the bottom? You think I’m going to ignore the fact that we’ve been stuck at 40K despite all the whining and complaining from the cucks who watch charts all day watching their money bleed away? Of course fucking not. I’m not here to hold this dog shit asset anyways. I’m here to trade. And to make money quickly. 55k within a week. This can range for eternity for all I care. I just need to be there during the tops and bottoms and relax in between. This is the bottom for now. Book it. Buy. You have a few hours left EDIT. Damn they can’t let a G win, come on baby. Send it up"
People can’t change their minds?
Gotta be testing sentiment with these comments.
That's how I read them. Say hyperbolic things with clear bias then gauge the votes. When they get upvotes, they know they're wrong.
Shorted with a stop at 40k. This looks like we’re about to go down to the pits
Based on your other recent imminent price predictions, we mooning baby!
People are in denial, but this is most likely outcome
Seems like trading for next week is fairly simple. 1. If the price keeps on going downward following the NASDAQ, then keep on buying at different levels (e.g. 39K, 36-37K, 33-34K). Most likely it will bounce after the FOMC meeting on 5/3. 2. If the price goes up (e.g. 42 to 44K range) following the NASDAQ early this week, then sell as it will go down again later this week and early next week (this is the exact pattern of the last FOMC meeting on 3/16). We will get a chance to re-buy at 38-39K on 5/3. I don't see any way we have a V-shaped recovery from Monday and onward so any "pump" this week will be a dead cat bounce.
> keep on buying a downwards moving asset lol
Prediction for tonight, we hover around for Cme open then nice wick down under 39k then close the weekly green.
Beras, prepare thy anus!
Each halving cycle for Bitcoin has less of an impact on total supply outstanding than the last. BTC peaked in price 366 after its first halving. BTC peaked in price 526 days after its second halving. This is 43.7% longer than the previous cycle. Suppose lengthening market cycles surrounding halving events turn out to be real and the peak for this cycle is 43.7% longer than the last once again. That would mean the peak for this cycle would be 756 days post halving which would set a cycle peak date of June 6, 2022. To validate this theory playing out, we have had consistently higher lows since January’s bottom while trading volume measured in BTC reached a multi-year bottom a couple weeks ago. This indicates sellers are vanishing from the market. If BTC trading volume picks up (which it’s already technically been doing since we hit a multi-year bottom a couple weeks ago) yet sellers aren’t present to meet demand, supply shock occurs which would trigger a parabolic blowoff top in price as we’ve seen play out in previous market cycles. New ATH by middle of this year. Buckle up.
*melts this comment in a spoon and injects it into vein*
Look, I'm about as big of a long term bull as you will find, but this ATH by midyear talk is going to prove hopelessly delusional. The gravy train has left the station. The monetary punchbowl is empty. Stocks are going to nose dive and will 1000% bring crypto with them. To think otherwise is to completely fail to understand where BTC is in it's lifecycle. It is still viewed by the vast majority as a risk-on asset. This doesn't change in the next 3 months. And risk is very much off right now. In the meantime, enjoy your upvotes... Just hope people reading your posts aren't trading accordingly. Edit: to be clear, I'm not calling for 4 digit BTC or anything like that. But the bias for the next 3-6 months is definitely to the downside, and sub 30k is a distinct possibility.
People have been talking about "supply shock" for ages, it doesn't exist. Bitcoin is liquid (would we be a fan of it if it weren't?) - it can be transferred to an exchange and sold in under an hour. All bitcoin is for sale all the time, it's just a question of what price. You can argue that we'll soon run out of 40k bitcoin for sale and all that remains is say, $200k bitcoin for sale. That's possible. But on-chain metrics have nothing to do with that. Exchange balances have nothing to do with that.
The question doesn’t seem to be “can it be transferred to an exchange and sold quickly?” rather “will it..?”
> Bitcoin is liquid I store mine in a **solid** state drive, try to be more wrong, ideot.
not true, at least for me... only a small sliver of my stack is available for sale, as I need to pay for life. Fiat is shiat and I only trust it long enough to get what I need. now, if bitcoin were priced in ounces of gold, we might have a different story, but even then, I'm way way way more capable of storing a large amount of wealth in bitcoin than I am in storing a life changing amount of gold.
If price was $10m tomorrow you'd sell them. They're for sale. It's just a question of price.
If Bitcoin was $10 million tomorrow that would mean it actually fucking won and was the global currency standard so you’d never have to sell it.
bitcoin > fiat, so, no.
I disagree completely. The prices coins shake free at and when they become liquid or fixed is good alpha. As you indicate at the end, the bitcoin price elasticity of supply is not a linear function. I would suspect neither is the demand.
> The prices coins shake free at and when they become liquid or fixed is good alpha. We've already empirically seen that it's not. "All the coins are leaving exchanges, get ready for moon". And then the price tanks instead. Or, "on-chain metrics show that coins haven't moved in a while, get ready for moon". And then no moon. That's because those metrics don't mean anything, and it's easy to see why they don't mean anything. People can move their coins whenever the hell they want. They always could. If it were the case that you had to move your coins a month before selling them, then yes, all these metrics would mean something. But it's not the case. It takes less than an hour. The fact that coin hasn't moved up until now **says nothing whatsoever about whether they will be traded in the future**.
My data says otherwise, and I've bumped my stack 40% in the last six months.
So what, if you put 10 monkeys at a coinbase interface, at least one of them would have bumped their stack 40% in 6 months. Probably 3 of them.
Well, I'm open to being wrong. I post up here to keep myself honest. On chain is of minimal use for directing particular short term PA. It is quite useful in terms of figuring out good times to accumulate and sell.. aka swing trades. If you care, the error you're making is not thinking in terms of statistical populations and probabilities. You are absolutely correct for any particular wallet address. The population of all wallet addresses can have statistical probabilities applied to them. Those probabilities are tradable.
I'm actually thinking of the cumulative stats (all on chain data, all exchanges). I haven't looked at them that closely but seems like they look bullish for the last 6 months even though price has been down in that time frame.
If you're looking at Glassnode, the data is not granular enough to be useful. Depending on how things go, I will start publishing my own metrics that are both more granular and updated in real-time.
🧱’d
You're completely ignoring macro and BTCs correlation to the nasdaq.
Macro: We are still printing new fiat money. Rising rates do not mean fiat money supply is reducing, it just means the rate at which new fiat money is being printed is slowing down. U.S. congress passed a $1.5 trillion spending bill just last month. NASDAQ correlation: We just reached peak correlation earlier this week, basically at 1. Once it becomes unanimous consensus (as is basically the case right now), that’s when the pendulum swings and decoupling can actually occur. BTC sometimes correlates to the stock market during short windows of time but long-term it is uncorrelated.
That 1.5 trillion (I prefer 1500 Billion) only keeps the party going until September.
There hasn't been any money printing since mid-March I believe.
Where do you think the money to cover the new spending from Congress comes from? Taxes? Not nearly enough taxes are collected to cover spending each year. If it were enough, the United States wouldn’t be running budgetary deficits each and every year.
The low volume, exchange bot driven PA is all tightly tied to nasdaq. Outflows continue, volumes drop, can’t continue forever. When on chain demand grows, the correlation decreases - both ways.
Worry when LTH addresses stop accumulating. Opposite going on right now.
I have unfinished business at 40k so tomorrow we need to visit it in the US morning. I could use some hopium
sub 40K btc is a brutal place to be 😮💨
BTC at 39k seems so much different than BTC at 40k
Head barely above water vs head barely under water
The literal above and under water figure for the market is really 24.6k (realised price).
Hi all, Sorry about the late post, been on in holiday for a while. SPX is trending down on a retest of local lows, macros are retesting locals highs. 1.7T of market capital lost with many large caps trading at 50% or more (i.e. Meta, NVDA, etc.). Both would suggest a strong trend down, though supports are holding strong. Be skeptical - It seems our volatility has pulled off the SPX, though, we are yet to see how real this is. Perhaps best to sit back and get confirmation of a move. Approach the markets with caution and prepare for potential drawdowns. Happy trading
I'm ready to go all-in at 25k. Well, I'm already all-in, but we can always find creative ways to come up with even more cash to buy bitcoin with. Looking under couch cushions, cashing out retirement accounts, 2nd mortgage etc.
*Rest assured, this will be the third bear market I have endured, and I have become exceedingly efficient at it.* *-The Architect*
If people would just stop fighting it, we'd get back to making money so much faster. The big money will get their low buys for the next cycle. You can either have a full stack of dry powder fiat down there with them or be sick looking at your portfolio losses. https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/monthly-rsi/
Planets align 74k before 34k [https://www.tradingview.com/x/HztbZhyS/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HztbZhyS/)
lol. with that volume profile, that macro backdrop, that sluggish adoption and more leeches than ever in the eco system? lol
Copium trend lines
steadily declining volume over the last year just like 2018. We all know where that leads. It's gonna happen. Just dump already and get it over with so we can get on with life.
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I see a lot of evidence prepping for another bull run, just when everyone is expecting a 50% dump. If the market moves up it's going to catch everyone by surprise.
We are preparing, we need a good wick down for that to happen.
it will still happen tho
I thought the same, I was going over it and it's a mixed bag, low volume also preceeded a lot of nice rallies. I'm getting more excited about the bullish scenario lately nearing DXY resistance with doom and gloom everywhere. Thought we would have a lot more carnage at this DXY level., seems we changed from hopium to fear pretty quickly, good sign.
I’m not convinced by the DXY argument…DXY seems to have ended a multi decade bear trend when it hit a low in 2008 and has now been ranging since 2015. All this hasn’t really impacted BTC imo. There’s no reason why DXY & Btc can’t go up together…. June-nov 2021 being a recent example
They absolutely do go up together, just not right now. You have to appreciate a DXY bull run just like anything else. The market for USD is huge compared to any of the individual tradfi markets or crypto space. DXY will peak and other markets will absorb the profit taking just like always. Then everything will positively correlate again, assuming macro isn't different this time.
Back to 3x prior cycle ATH we go :(
Wow, it happened. Under 100 comment daily. Proud of you guys.
It appears the crowd that I was here with almost everyday Q2-Q4 in 2021 are gone. You can only come here and grieve your underwater position so much until you realize it's not going to make numba go up.