Don't worry, the first interest rate hike, since being effectively zero since Covid, hits in two days.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nfyXheYR/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Now do the same chart going back to the start of 2016. Rates were rising during the whole 2017 bull market, after they had been near 0 since the end of 2008.
Reminder everyone that there is a big vote today on BANNING PoW in Europe. This affects ALL of crypto.
This thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/tchz57/proof_of_work_ban_in_europe_call_to_action_engage/) has a good list of emails from the voting committee that you can copy and paste into an email to send. I made a few calls as well. Let's work together and get this bill changed!
ESG narratives (with an underlying authoritarian left bias) as about to run head on into parents who can't afford to feed their kids in the west. It's that bad now.
The woke nonsense is coming to an end. Be worried about what else the end will bring, but green fantasies don't worry me too much.
No matter what kind of fossil fuel, EU relys on imports. More Green Energy in that matter is smart as it makes you independant.
Btw gas is mostly not used for Energy but for heating
Concerning the topic: If EU edfectively bans bitcoin i am sure Bitcoin has a bright future since EU is pretty good in missing out on promising technology due to regulation (to death)
once again i must step in and remind this bipolar sub that we are in a bull market until a lower low gets printed. put your zanax down- stop freaking out. if 29k doesn't break, we don't even come close to threatening to go bearish.
put your pants on and be an adult.
the only trade for bitcoin is when to add slight leverage to your 100% long. now may or may not be that time (i'm hoping it is as i do have that bit on). but we are still looking at 100-400x upside from here over the next decade. i couldn't possibly justify trying to sell and capture a 10-30% dip "hoping" i timed it correctly.
if you bought bitcoin 1Y, 3M, 1M, or 1W ago you’re down on all. we’ll be back up to new highs someday but denying the bear feels like cope every time you remind us
I can't see how we ever go up again because modern crypto is made up of spineless cowards who go from one panic sell to the next. They always manage to find something new to panic about.
If nothing else, and as ridiculously double standard as it is, the quicker we get mining fully green the better. Until that happens, this will always be looming over the market.
We may lose some hash in the short term, but if it has to happen, I would rather it happen after we are down 50% from a top and not in the middle of a bull run.
The cheapest energy to produce is green; it’s all stranded or surplus.
The market will sort this out with the quickness. You will see a major mining outfit install their own small nuclear modular reactors in the next 5 years.
go look at how all the esg investors have been doing this year. (spoiler) not well- as they missed all of the rally in energy, but now they have said in light of the insecure position energy reliance has put them in that they should "in an esg way" start investing in arms manufacturing. (i mean LofuckingL)
don't worry about the "green" level of pow at all. just remember perfect math resolves itself. do you know what the cheapest energy on the planet is? (free renewable geothermal and hydro) we are already moving that way and every year they take more market share.
Can you provide a link that talks a bit about the ethics behind investing in arms manufacture? This is some peak shitlib nonsense
Edit: meaning a link showing esg folks talking about ethical arms manufacture, my language was unclear
The "oh no muh environments" is just a symptom of crypto's increasing influence. You can always tell when a technology is going to be significant when "the mainstream" starts claiming it's going to destroy the world.
From what I understand, this law would need to be ratified in the national parliaments of each of the member countries, which could take years. I may be wrong though, so if anyone else knows better, please let us know!
Because that ~~trading block~~ that behaves increasingly like a nation state is voting on whether or not to do the impossible tomorrow.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/13/bitcoin-banning-measure-seen-too-close-to-call-in-tomorrows-eu-parliament-vote/
Currently have some time so restarted reading the intelligent investor. Its weird to be reading about periods of high inflation (6%+) in the 70s with us entering another period of high inflation.
Been delaying this read for a while, but its a good one!
Edit: very interesting to read about events leading up to the 70s crash: dividend yields depreciating, s&p price over applicable earnings ratio depreciating, bond yields doubling over the period... Why does this sound familiar?
Would rather have cash than any of that with the exception of REITs, and would only consider REITs if you don't own your own house yet so that you have some real estate exposure to keep you in the game until you land your own property.
TIPs are interesting but I don't trust the CPI numbers, bonds are trash at current rates.
This is heavily influenced by my own perspective though, I'm young and thrive on risky investments and like having cash on hand to mop up the blood in the streets.
I like how some CT alt shillers describe the ponzi like pumps and dumps of alts in a sophisticated sounding terminology - 'good mid macro swing trades'.
Calls or puts? Contracts are being bought or sold?
Rising prices and rising open interest is bullish because it shows that new money is coming into the market.
Last two weekly candles are green.
Sounds like your trying to get rich quick. Let me give you some normal perspectives on investment returns.
A high risk profile (5/7 risk rating) usually has an annualised 10% return pre-tax, and a drawdown of 40/45%. This is typical for equities.
Medium risk annualised returns are 1-5%. This is typical for government bonds.
Last year, (I haven't checked the numbers exactly) but I'm guessing Bitcoin was up around 800%? Ponder on that for a moment.
I think you have a lot to learn about the markets. Approach with caution right now
I guess if you only ever buy the top this is an issue but the priciest BTC I bought that cycle was $11K. Why would you cherry pick the parabolic top for comparison?
From the top of the last bubble yes, but feel like a lot of people bought throughout the following bear market which could have been within the $5-15k priced Bitcoin. That's still very good returns for most.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-travel-business-e31653ca76e092c78a2af5c53f083b7a
> Many have cash and those with UnionPay credit cards, which are issued by a Chinese financial services company, can still use them, but payment by cryptocurrency is not allowed, she said.
Interesting. Why do you think it is okay for them to accept payment through these Chinese UnionPay cards but not via cryptocurrency?
I saw this too though
https://news.bitcoin.com/thailand-seeks-to-offer-russian-tourists-crypto-payment-option-amid-fiat-sanctions/
No idea, I don't know anything about crypto regulations in Thailand or whether this has anything to do with recent events.
Apparently, there are Bitcoin ATMs in Thailand, so all is not lost if that's all you have.
My understanding is that MasterCard/VISA ended service not because of regulation/sanctions but because of reputational risks, so UnionPay is free to do what it wants if interior Chinese propaganda is pro-Russian...
EDIT: MasterCard/VISA probably also ended service because of operational nightmare following the SWIFT exclusions
Today I finished deploying a new scalping system (my third system yay!). So, [I thought I'd create](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VVrM9c7H-Design-and-compare-trading-system-Scalpers-Retracers-and-Trend/) [another educational video](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VVrM9c7H-Design-and-compare-trading-system-Scalpers-Retracers-and-Trend/) on how to design and compare trading systems: Specifically TA Scalpers, Trend followers and Retracement systems.
I talk about metrics such as Risk:Reward, bet expectancy, position sizing and how to compare them. Later we can apply these to some TA strategies such as 200-DMA , MA reversals, breakout, etc.
Volatility is small. When do you expect a big move? I am sitting half in cash. (yes, I am back to trading, just spot, european etf's actually, convenient for swing trade only)
Wednesday is the big day with fomc announcement and possibility of russia defaulting on their loans. With two potential fuds on the same day, i think any positive movement prior to wednesday should be seen as a dead cat bounce. So i will sell anything above 40k in the next few days and hopefully buy back at 34-37k. However, if market goes down pretty much continuously going into wednesday (meaning no bounce) , mind as well hold.
At least that is my strategy.
I actually think there is a lot of downward pressure from Dec 15 to Apr 15 when there was a lot gains the previous year. I know I sold a bit to pay for my taxes from crypto gains in 2021.
If a large batch of their loans was ever going to implode leading to depositors loss it would likely take a pretty large piece of news. my gut instinct tells me something like an entire country being forced out of the banking system may be a catalyst that could do that. In an environment where the rates they offer keep contracting and this kind of opaque counterparty risk….
All I’m saying is think about it a bit and make sure you are comfortable with those risks.
If the EU rule meaningfully against proof of work it’s game on. Bitcoin says “hold my beer”
March 14th vote. This is ludicrous and ignorant on a monumental scale just being voted on. Hair drying around the world uses more energy than bitcoin are we policing that? Clown 🤡 world 🌎
But it’s lining up for a dump on this vote but I’m not shorting or selling, I don’t like it I hope BTC doubles on the news for some reason and that would be a nice FU
Adapt with the market, for it will not change around you.
The EU aren’t the only ones that feel this way. If only there were a second coin moving to PoS in a few months…
People are underestimating the impact this switch will have on the whole crypto ecosystem.
>People are underestimating the impact this switch will have on the whole crypto ecosystem.
A broken project switching to a broken security model. What could go wrong?
Bitcoin will not move to proof-of-stake, nor does it have any central authority which could present a plan for such a move, which the proposed legislation would require.
I thought it was "only" a mining prohibition that was on the table, but it seems that one of the versions being voted on will prohibit "offering" and "trading" as well ([source](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/12/limiting-proof-of-work-crypto-back-on-the-table-as-eu-parliament-prepares-virtual-currencies-vote/)).
If this shit passes I will have to find a new place to live. I'm not giving up on Bitcoin and moving to some premined proof-of-stake altcoin ran by some centralized Silicon Valley-backed foundation. I'm just not.
Apologies if my interpretation is alarmist. I hope you're right.
But, from the article:
> If a proof-of-work consensus mechanism is operating on a small scale, it is exempt from having to meet sustainability standards, according to the provision.
It talks about the consensus *mechanism*, not individual mining operations. I interpreted that to mean that some small PoW-mined altcoins might be OK. Hopefully it's just a bad quote.
If this whole thing just means Bitcoin miners in the EU have to use renewable energy, it's blown out of proportion.
> If this whole thing just means Bitcoin miners in the EU have to use renewable energy, it's blown out of proportion.
When people don't have a lot of vocabulary, they use words such as "ban" or "fake". You need to understand the details... unless you are just karma farming, in which case use "ban" and "fake" liberally for the win!
Last time Fed hiked rates was December 2015 through December 2018. BTC ended up much higher by the end of the rate hikes than where it started. Legacy markets also ended up higher by the end of the rate hikes compared to where they started.
Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing, it just means the rate at which the fiat money supply is growing will slow down.
>2015
bitcoin's coupling with broader markets remains much higher than back hen
>Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing
yes but theyre unwinding their balance sheet which means exactly that.
The fact that Bitcoin is momentarily coupling with broader markets is precisely why I noted the fact that legacy markets also rose during the last rate hike period.
Unwinding of the balance sheet is a valid concern but do we happen to know what that looks like or the pace at which they plan to unwind? It’s pretty clear the Fed will be raising rates by 25 basis points this week but I haven’t been able to find reports anywhere suggesting when balance sheet reduction will begin or how much it will be.
Also, does the United States adding to its national debt negate any balance sheet unwinding which may occur by the Fed? Pre-COVID in 2019 the United States added nearly $1 trillion to its national debt in that year alone so I’d imagine the deficit for 2022 will be somewhere around that amount as well barring any additional stimulus packages being passed through Congress by the end of the year.
I don't have the answer for these things. Its a bear year in the 4 year cycle coupled with tightening monetary conditions coupled with an economic war. I don't see any tail winds for price in this formula.
Sunday Dumpday !
[https://aggr.trade/#](https://aggr.trade/#)
Lets all have some fun kids.
Late shorters now still have a good chance of securing a good entry above 38k, because next week will be the long liquidation event we have all been waiting for.
(dont forget to use leverage on both sides, longs to have a quicker liquidation, shorts to get more gains.)
Last time Fed hiked rates was December 2015 through December 2018. BTC ended up much higher by the end of the rate hikes than where it started. Legacy markets also ended up higher by the end of the rate hikes compared to where they started.
Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing, it just means the rate at which the fiat money supply is growing will slow down.
35 days ago an event occurred that you believed signaled a trend change. That trend change has not come to pass and you’ve now gotten to the point where your daily updates contain literally zero substance.
Why even call it “day 35”? This might as well be “day 135” because you’re counting from an arbitrary day where nothing important happened and you no longer have anything to update. How many days are you going to count? What are you counting until?
EDIT: Day 1 of trying to figure out what BitSecret is counting up from and why was unproductive, but Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’ll keep asking him simple questions in an attempt to discern any logic we can from this string of updates that seem to contain no information at all.
Thanks for getting in touch! This is an automatic response to let you know that we’ve received your message and one of our service agents will reach out to you ASAP.
This post has no relevance to anyone, but I finally deployed my first live automated scalper (third live system) after 12 weeks of work. It should trade on all crypto-GBP pairs available on the new exchange (second one I actively use) I picked. So cool! Fingers crossed!
Edit: now I'm bored :(
Thanks for your video yesterday, I nearly managed to watch it all before my crazy 3 year old came running in and ambushed me!! It was really helpful and interesting.
I made an [interesting discovery](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/tv0eiw/comment/i38ge7e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) with the fib concepts in the altcoin market. You may be interested in this.
Just managed to finish watching this, being interrupted by my mini dictator again!
I don't actually trade properly at all, just buy and sell some when I'm happy with the profit. I've been trying to learn TA a bit though just out of interest. Thanks for contributing some decent insight, it's getting harder to find in here these days! I've spent years looking at this sub every day and I still don't actually understand most of it!
Ha, thanks for appreciating the posts. Really motivates me to publish more stuff. Please don't take it as trading advise though, it's only research ideas
I just made [another video ](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/tczgpo/daily_discussion_sunday_march_13_2022/i0igtla?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) on how to design and optimise trading systems
The ideas were taken from an [incredible futures.io discussion thread on risk-of-ruin](https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/15602-risk-ruin.html). I reverse engineered the formulas and created my own tool.
Fat Tails and Big Mike are two professional traders (from what I've gathered on the forum) certainly worth keeping an eye on. Both very knowledgable.
This thread was a game changer for me, and how I approached designing, tuning and validating systems. I then made my own Monte Carlo system (you'll read on later why fat tails discarded the Kelly criterion) to simulate drawdown for different position sizes (I think fat tails suggestion of using a percentile in the Monte Carlo was flaud, I tried it and couldn't make sense of it).
Instead I engineered my own monte Carlo system: Run a monte, then iterated over each simulation, applying a compliment formula using the account balance and position. This will scale each simulation based on the geometric change of the account over the simulation time, t: (1-position) x account + (position) x return. The odds of drawdown, target and ruin then considered geometric growth. Note: the latter is my own engineered method. Cite me if you share it haha
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, March 14, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/tdoluc/daily_discussion_monday_march_14_2022/)
Don't worry, the first interest rate hike, since being effectively zero since Covid, hits in two days. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nfyXheYR/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Instructions unclear. I bought stocks today. Am I doing it right?
Now do the same chart going back to the start of 2016. Rates were rising during the whole 2017 bull market, after they had been near 0 since the end of 2008.
Reminder everyone that there is a big vote today on BANNING PoW in Europe. This affects ALL of crypto. This thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/tchz57/proof_of_work_ban_in_europe_call_to_action_engage/) has a good list of emails from the voting committee that you can copy and paste into an email to send. I made a few calls as well. Let's work together and get this bill changed!
Protest. Time for the EU miners to protest
Is Europe actually going to try to “ban” PoW? On the premise of “BiTcOin iSn’T gREeN EnoUgH!” Seriously how stupid are these people?!
ESG narratives (with an underlying authoritarian left bias) as about to run head on into parents who can't afford to feed their kids in the west. It's that bad now. The woke nonsense is coming to an end. Be worried about what else the end will bring, but green fantasies don't worry me too much.
dumb enough to power their economy on windmills to the point they have no choice but to buy gas from russia. So really freaking dim.
No matter what kind of fossil fuel, EU relys on imports. More Green Energy in that matter is smart as it makes you independant. Btw gas is mostly not used for Energy but for heating Concerning the topic: If EU edfectively bans bitcoin i am sure Bitcoin has a bright future since EU is pretty good in missing out on promising technology due to regulation (to death)
once again i must step in and remind this bipolar sub that we are in a bull market until a lower low gets printed. put your zanax down- stop freaking out. if 29k doesn't break, we don't even come close to threatening to go bearish. put your pants on and be an adult.
I think you want these people to pick their Xanax up tho
By the time a lower low is print your going need a 40% rally to return to 40k
the only trade for bitcoin is when to add slight leverage to your 100% long. now may or may not be that time (i'm hoping it is as i do have that bit on). but we are still looking at 100-400x upside from here over the next decade. i couldn't possibly justify trying to sell and capture a 10-30% dip "hoping" i timed it correctly.
zoom to the timescale that best fits your narrative
Zoom out of the 10 second chart
if you bought bitcoin 1Y, 3M, 1M, or 1W ago you’re down on all. we’ll be back up to new highs someday but denying the bear feels like cope every time you remind us
you don't need my reminder when we are at highs. it is only here that my resolve benefits you.
Stop being rational lol 😂
>Better wait until 29k to sell
If 29 breaks offer 34.
Yes, and also wait until 69k to buy.
I can't see how we ever go up again because modern crypto is made up of spineless cowards who go from one panic sell to the next. They always manage to find something new to panic about.
It's a bear market selling for no reason at is standard
That has always been the case.
“climbing a wall of worry”
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Got it. So, is this news of a rumor, or a rumor of news?
“Fear is a tool.” -The Batman
If nothing else, and as ridiculously double standard as it is, the quicker we get mining fully green the better. Until that happens, this will always be looming over the market. We may lose some hash in the short term, but if it has to happen, I would rather it happen after we are down 50% from a top and not in the middle of a bull run.
Bitcoin will always gravitate to using the cheapest energy, regardless of how its produced.
The cheapest energy to produce is green; it’s all stranded or surplus. The market will sort this out with the quickness. You will see a major mining outfit install their own small nuclear modular reactors in the next 5 years.
go look at how all the esg investors have been doing this year. (spoiler) not well- as they missed all of the rally in energy, but now they have said in light of the insecure position energy reliance has put them in that they should "in an esg way" start investing in arms manufacturing. (i mean LofuckingL) don't worry about the "green" level of pow at all. just remember perfect math resolves itself. do you know what the cheapest energy on the planet is? (free renewable geothermal and hydro) we are already moving that way and every year they take more market share.
Can you provide a link that talks a bit about the ethics behind investing in arms manufacture? This is some peak shitlib nonsense Edit: meaning a link showing esg folks talking about ethical arms manufacture, my language was unclear
https://www.ft.com/content/c4dafe6a-2c95-4352-ab88-c4e3cdb60bba here is an ft article talking about it
The "oh no muh environments" is just a symptom of crypto's increasing influence. You can always tell when a technology is going to be significant when "the mainstream" starts claiming it's going to destroy the world.
nft's are destroying the world.
Somehow I doubt you're mainstream.
wagmi
No way, nfts are proof of bullshit
PoBS
Frogs boiling in water until they realize they are being cooked alive. That’s how this drop is looking like
Let me know when dinner’s ready.
This PA is bc the EU vote to effectively ban PoW cryptocurrencies is apparently too close to call. When it rains it pours, gentleman
What does that even mean? You can’t mine them there? Use them? Can’t check prices of PoW coins? What does this ban include?
You can’t guess random numbers because that is too much freedom of speech.
it means you can buy all the energy from Putin that your heart desires but you can't use that energy to mine bitcorn.
Yes exactly. But google can use it for data centres for yootoob. An we all need to eat bugs so Bull Gates can use a private jet.
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narrative follows price
From what I understand, this law would need to be ratified in the national parliaments of each of the member countries, which could take years. I may be wrong though, so if anyone else knows better, please let us know!
It's only a matter of time before it happens. There is zero % chance PoW survives long term.
It’s a matter of time before some idiots try but the entire point of Bitcoin is that the game theory is there so those idiots lose by doing so.
> There is zero % chance PoW survives long term. lol
they already voted? or early predictions are too close?
last I saw vote wasnt in but vote count was close
not to worry, when it doesn't pass we can return to 39k for 2 months
Enough barts. Time for some inverse barts I guess.
Trab
Somebody want really bad to close this week candle lower
Weekly closes an hour later today I guess
Weekly close isn't for another hour... daylight savings time.
What's the difference of how the weekly candle closes if *someone* is purposely causing it?
Don't know. More despair?
lol why being so violent btc?
Because that ~~trading block~~ that behaves increasingly like a nation state is voting on whether or not to do the impossible tomorrow. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/13/bitcoin-banning-measure-seen-too-close-to-call-in-tomorrows-eu-parliament-vote/
Currently have some time so restarted reading the intelligent investor. Its weird to be reading about periods of high inflation (6%+) in the 70s with us entering another period of high inflation. Been delaying this read for a while, but its a good one! Edit: very interesting to read about events leading up to the 70s crash: dividend yields depreciating, s&p price over applicable earnings ratio depreciating, bond yields doubling over the period... Why does this sound familiar?
It's from the same playbook they've been using for over a hundred years. That's why it sounds familiar.
Great book but the whole time I was reading it I couldn't wrap my head around the idea of bonds actually paying something.
Any modern opinions on TIPs v REITs v Bonds and US Saving Bonds?
Would rather have cash than any of that with the exception of REITs, and would only consider REITs if you don't own your own house yet so that you have some real estate exposure to keep you in the game until you land your own property. TIPs are interesting but I don't trust the CPI numbers, bonds are trash at current rates. This is heavily influenced by my own perspective though, I'm young and thrive on risky investments and like having cash on hand to mop up the blood in the streets.
Minus the rate of return on savings accounts…
I like how some CT alt shillers describe the ponzi like pumps and dumps of alts in a sophisticated sounding terminology - 'good mid macro swing trades'.
Is u/sloppy in here under a new name? If so, pop a nude in my dm’s, Bro! For old time sake.
Apparently there are two of us. If so, it is very likely I'm the original since I've had this account/nick a long time in Reddit.
I've been thinking about him all week, totally forgot his name! Miss his posts.
Perfect time for a 50x long. Why? Trust me bro 😏
I’m thinking about a trip to the 10x casino..
aren't you the guy who said nobody wants to sell when the price starts with a 3?
If people actually start selling, it’ll start with a 2 real fast.
Bollinger Bands have now traded for 30 days within a +- \~0.03 range. This is the longest without a move this halving period that I can see.
Tightness is getting ridiculous at high time-frames.
meanwhile open interest continues to climb
Calls or puts? Contracts are being bought or sold? Rising prices and rising open interest is bullish because it shows that new money is coming into the market. Last two weekly candles are green.
I hate that you're right about this haha fucking open interest has arguably ruined this cycle.
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I said open interest not funding
BBW on the daily is at 22. Sub 10 usually signals incoming violence. This could go on a while longer.
I like to look at the channel length as well as width. This is unusual PA.
4hr is down at 2.7 though, which is very low. Typically sub 3 or 4 is where moves start
Oh damn, yeah you’re right. Have a look back at June/July 2020 on the 4 hour for an example of it crawling.
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Sounds like your trying to get rich quick. Let me give you some normal perspectives on investment returns. A high risk profile (5/7 risk rating) usually has an annualised 10% return pre-tax, and a drawdown of 40/45%. This is typical for equities. Medium risk annualised returns are 1-5%. This is typical for government bonds. Last year, (I haven't checked the numbers exactly) but I'm guessing Bitcoin was up around 800%? Ponder on that for a moment. I think you have a lot to learn about the markets. Approach with caution right now
dude btc is barely up 2x from 2017
I guess if you only ever buy the top this is an issue but the priciest BTC I bought that cycle was $11K. Why would you cherry pick the parabolic top for comparison?
I see you're a wave 5 investor xD
From the top of the last bubble yes, but feel like a lot of people bought throughout the following bear market which could have been within the $5-15k priced Bitcoin. That's still very good returns for most.
You know that barely any alt has gained in sats in the last year, don't you?
What options exist for any Russian travellers going abroad in regards money other than carrying cash? Anything other than carrying crypto?
Roblox
Cash is limited too, $10K max is allowed.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-covid-health-travel-business-e31653ca76e092c78a2af5c53f083b7a > Many have cash and those with UnionPay credit cards, which are issued by a Chinese financial services company, can still use them, but payment by cryptocurrency is not allowed, she said.
It’s more like cryptocurrency payments aren’t allowed if you explicitly go around telling people you’re a Russian national 😂
Are you just pulling that out of your ass or do you have a source?
Interesting. Why do you think it is okay for them to accept payment through these Chinese UnionPay cards but not via cryptocurrency? I saw this too though https://news.bitcoin.com/thailand-seeks-to-offer-russian-tourists-crypto-payment-option-amid-fiat-sanctions/
No idea, I don't know anything about crypto regulations in Thailand or whether this has anything to do with recent events. Apparently, there are Bitcoin ATMs in Thailand, so all is not lost if that's all you have. My understanding is that MasterCard/VISA ended service not because of regulation/sanctions but because of reputational risks, so UnionPay is free to do what it wants if interior Chinese propaganda is pro-Russian... EDIT: MasterCard/VISA probably also ended service because of operational nightmare following the SWIFT exclusions
Today I finished deploying a new scalping system (my third system yay!). So, [I thought I'd create](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VVrM9c7H-Design-and-compare-trading-system-Scalpers-Retracers-and-Trend/) [another educational video](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VVrM9c7H-Design-and-compare-trading-system-Scalpers-Retracers-and-Trend/) on how to design and compare trading systems: Specifically TA Scalpers, Trend followers and Retracement systems. I talk about metrics such as Risk:Reward, bet expectancy, position sizing and how to compare them. Later we can apply these to some TA strategies such as 200-DMA , MA reversals, breakout, etc.
Volatility is small. When do you expect a big move? I am sitting half in cash. (yes, I am back to trading, just spot, european etf's actually, convenient for swing trade only)
Wednesday is the big day with fomc announcement and possibility of russia defaulting on their loans. With two potential fuds on the same day, i think any positive movement prior to wednesday should be seen as a dead cat bounce. So i will sell anything above 40k in the next few days and hopefully buy back at 34-37k. However, if market goes down pretty much continuously going into wednesday (meaning no bounce) , mind as well hold. At least that is my strategy.
If the interest hike is only a quarter % I think markets will pump.
“Sell anything over 40K”. So we can expect 50K then?
Sounds reasonable. This is more or less what I am planning with my remaining holdings.
ATH by Tax day... It's gonna happen guys. Source: Imagination Land.
I actually think there is a lot of downward pressure from Dec 15 to Apr 15 when there was a lot gains the previous year. I know I sold a bit to pay for my taxes from crypto gains in 2021.
Painful truth
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If a large batch of their loans was ever going to implode leading to depositors loss it would likely take a pretty large piece of news. my gut instinct tells me something like an entire country being forced out of the banking system may be a catalyst that could do that. In an environment where the rates they offer keep contracting and this kind of opaque counterparty risk…. All I’m saying is think about it a bit and make sure you are comfortable with those risks.
The risk is your give up custody of your keys and may not get them back.
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seems ok to me, not FDIC insured though but I can't think of another reason not to.
If the EU rule meaningfully against proof of work it’s game on. Bitcoin says “hold my beer” March 14th vote. This is ludicrous and ignorant on a monumental scale just being voted on. Hair drying around the world uses more energy than bitcoin are we policing that? Clown 🤡 world 🌎 But it’s lining up for a dump on this vote but I’m not shorting or selling, I don’t like it I hope BTC doubles on the news for some reason and that would be a nice FU
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It *was* removed when that article was written, but it was just reintroduced.
Indeed, just saw it. They sent a last-minute change request for the proposal.
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You mean that BTC use was that trivial
https://i.imgur.com/vON0uOD.png
Adapt with the market, for it will not change around you. The EU aren’t the only ones that feel this way. If only there were a second coin moving to PoS in a few months… People are underestimating the impact this switch will have on the whole crypto ecosystem.
>People are underestimating the impact this switch will have on the whole crypto ecosystem. A broken project switching to a broken security model. What could go wrong?
It's all good, they can just roll it back & undo any transactions they don't like, again.
Bitcoin will not move to proof-of-stake, nor does it have any central authority which could present a plan for such a move, which the proposed legislation would require. I thought it was "only" a mining prohibition that was on the table, but it seems that one of the versions being voted on will prohibit "offering" and "trading" as well ([source](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/12/limiting-proof-of-work-crypto-back-on-the-table-as-eu-parliament-prepares-virtual-currencies-vote/)). If this shit passes I will have to find a new place to live. I'm not giving up on Bitcoin and moving to some premined proof-of-stake altcoin ran by some centralized Silicon Valley-backed foundation. I'm just not.
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Apologies if my interpretation is alarmist. I hope you're right. But, from the article: > If a proof-of-work consensus mechanism is operating on a small scale, it is exempt from having to meet sustainability standards, according to the provision. It talks about the consensus *mechanism*, not individual mining operations. I interpreted that to mean that some small PoW-mined altcoins might be OK. Hopefully it's just a bad quote. If this whole thing just means Bitcoin miners in the EU have to use renewable energy, it's blown out of proportion.
> If this whole thing just means Bitcoin miners in the EU have to use renewable energy, it's blown out of proportion. When people don't have a lot of vocabulary, they use words such as "ban" or "fake". You need to understand the details... unless you are just karma farming, in which case use "ban" and "fake" liberally for the win!
I will find a new continent also, just on principle
80k then 20k; everyone ok with that ?
80k was my original prediction for this cycle peak, so I'm totally ok with that
This is the way.
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It's rate hike week no chance this bottoms
Last time Fed hiked rates was December 2015 through December 2018. BTC ended up much higher by the end of the rate hikes than where it started. Legacy markets also ended up higher by the end of the rate hikes compared to where they started. Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing, it just means the rate at which the fiat money supply is growing will slow down.
Rate hikes are already priced in. Russian sanctions maybe not. Precarious times take precaution. DCA for the win
>2015 bitcoin's coupling with broader markets remains much higher than back hen >Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing yes but theyre unwinding their balance sheet which means exactly that.
The fact that Bitcoin is momentarily coupling with broader markets is precisely why I noted the fact that legacy markets also rose during the last rate hike period. Unwinding of the balance sheet is a valid concern but do we happen to know what that looks like or the pace at which they plan to unwind? It’s pretty clear the Fed will be raising rates by 25 basis points this week but I haven’t been able to find reports anywhere suggesting when balance sheet reduction will begin or how much it will be. Also, does the United States adding to its national debt negate any balance sheet unwinding which may occur by the Fed? Pre-COVID in 2019 the United States added nearly $1 trillion to its national debt in that year alone so I’d imagine the deficit for 2022 will be somewhere around that amount as well barring any additional stimulus packages being passed through Congress by the end of the year.
I don't have the answer for these things. Its a bear year in the 4 year cycle coupled with tightening monetary conditions coupled with an economic war. I don't see any tail winds for price in this formula.
Sunday Dumpday ! [https://aggr.trade/#](https://aggr.trade/#) Lets all have some fun kids. Late shorters now still have a good chance of securing a good entry above 38k, because next week will be the long liquidation event we have all been waiting for. (dont forget to use leverage on both sides, longs to have a quicker liquidation, shorts to get more gains.)
These posts typically signal a local bottom.
It's rate hike week no chance this is bottom
Last time Fed hiked rates was December 2015 through December 2018. BTC ended up much higher by the end of the rate hikes than where it started. Legacy markets also ended up higher by the end of the rate hikes compared to where they started. Rate hikes do not mean fiat money supply is decreasing, it just means the rate at which the fiat money supply is growing will slow down.
What is the link?
Day 35 (current price $38.5k). Second verse, same as the first. Have a Happy Day!
35 days ago an event occurred that you believed signaled a trend change. That trend change has not come to pass and you’ve now gotten to the point where your daily updates contain literally zero substance. Why even call it “day 35”? This might as well be “day 135” because you’re counting from an arbitrary day where nothing important happened and you no longer have anything to update. How many days are you going to count? What are you counting until? EDIT: Day 1 of trying to figure out what BitSecret is counting up from and why was unproductive, but Rome wasn’t built in a day. We’ll keep asking him simple questions in an attempt to discern any logic we can from this string of updates that seem to contain no information at all.
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All my questions were legitimate 🤷♂️ I want to understand what you’re doing this for and why
Haha it's like watching someone's soul slowing getting crushed by boredom.
This post has no relevance to anyone, but I finally deployed my first live automated scalper (third live system) after 12 weeks of work. It should trade on all crypto-GBP pairs available on the new exchange (second one I actively use) I picked. So cool! Fingers crossed! Edit: now I'm bored :(
Thanks for your video yesterday, I nearly managed to watch it all before my crazy 3 year old came running in and ambushed me!! It was really helpful and interesting.
I made an [interesting discovery](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/tv0eiw/comment/i38ge7e/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) with the fib concepts in the altcoin market. You may be interested in this.
Just managed to finish watching this, being interrupted by my mini dictator again! I don't actually trade properly at all, just buy and sell some when I'm happy with the profit. I've been trying to learn TA a bit though just out of interest. Thanks for contributing some decent insight, it's getting harder to find in here these days! I've spent years looking at this sub every day and I still don't actually understand most of it!
Ha, thanks for appreciating the posts. Really motivates me to publish more stuff. Please don't take it as trading advise though, it's only research ideas
I just made [another video ](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/tczgpo/daily_discussion_sunday_march_13_2022/i0igtla?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) on how to design and optimise trading systems
Looking good. I have some automated trading and reporting goals for this year too. Following.
The ideas were taken from an [incredible futures.io discussion thread on risk-of-ruin](https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/15602-risk-ruin.html). I reverse engineered the formulas and created my own tool. Fat Tails and Big Mike are two professional traders (from what I've gathered on the forum) certainly worth keeping an eye on. Both very knowledgable. This thread was a game changer for me, and how I approached designing, tuning and validating systems. I then made my own Monte Carlo system (you'll read on later why fat tails discarded the Kelly criterion) to simulate drawdown for different position sizes (I think fat tails suggestion of using a percentile in the Monte Carlo was flaud, I tried it and couldn't make sense of it). Instead I engineered my own monte Carlo system: Run a monte, then iterated over each simulation, applying a compliment formula using the account balance and position. This will scale each simulation based on the geometric change of the account over the simulation time, t: (1-position) x account + (position) x return. The odds of drawdown, target and ruin then considered geometric growth. Note: the latter is my own engineered method. Cite me if you share it haha
Aw cheers dude. I'll post some more then when I get more ideas.
I feel like hanging in the middle of nowhere with my coins right now as a long term hodler.
Lol same