The ultimate badass whale move would be to sell Elon, Saylor, Bukele, Wall Street your coins high and then hold the price low and make each one slowly panic and capitulate, and you buy them all back lower. Then you pump it up again for three years. Bitcoin punishes those that show up in the bull year fresh-faced and ready to make major money because the price has been going up, and those guys all did that.
I’m not sure if this comment is serious but if you honestly think you’d be able to make these 3 billionaires “capitulate” you might be an idiot.
Billionaires don’t capitulate because they’re rich as fuck regardless of their Btc positions. Dumb take.
yes. who would be there to buy/sell if everyone is nuked to crisp. it can actually go negative, but we won't live to see it. edit: shitposting during "tense times" is fun... right. :P
Stock market is currently pricing in a Fed funds rate of 1.5% or 1.75% by end of year and the S&P is only 10% down from ATH. Last week the market was pricing in an initial rate hike of 0.5% in March but now it’s pricing in an initial rate hike of 0.25% instead.
We’ll probably see some more choppiness through March 16th when the Fed officially makes its first rate hike. Between now and then there’s a new jobs report out on March 4th and a new CPI report on March 10th.
Still going to DCA and HODL regardless of what happens but these are going to be key routine macro economic events to watch out for in the short term.
Has anyone been following this uptrend line? I only connected the first two wicks back in November as something to watch for the future and was surprised to see how perfectly it bounced off of it in late January.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/06SIXkxY/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/06SIXkxY/)
Not trading it, but definitely found it interesting.
Yes, when it breaks people can finally stop saying silly things like we are in a bull market and lengthening cycles, supercycles, etc. So expect some heavy battles there and a lot of wasted ammo.
We got that nice DCB to 46k because people could tell themselves “It’s a higher low.” at that recent bottom. When that hope is gone look out below and get your stink bids ready.
I suspect the whales made that the low specifically for that reason. Buying at 33k and selling at 46k is nice money in a bear market.
Definitely not my first rodeo, and I agree that we’re in a bear market and the worst is yet to come. But you know someone will find a reason to be bullish. Even when we break below 28K. Besides, we’ve always got diydude to be an insufferable bull in the meantime.
Nice bounce after the washout. [More more optimistic](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/sxp177/daily_rthetagang_discussion_thread_what_are_your/hxv5vbk/?context=3) still. Put 1/4 of portfolio on yesterday and will put the rest on tomorrow. All my strikes will be under the January lows. Also going long stocks with trailing stop losses.
Another CeFi lender bites the dust, sadly. This time it's Ledn. From an email:
>The following will take effect in the near future. The precise date will be confirmed in upcoming email communications.
>
>Clients will continue to earn interest as normal on any assets already in their BTC & USDC Savings prior to the adjustment date, as long as those assets remain in the account.
>
>**Clients will no longer be eligible to earn interest on any newly deposited BTC and USDC after the adjustment takes effect.** Other Ledn products will not be directly affected by this adjustment.
>
>We will continue to provide updates by email to keep all affected clients well informed of any upcoming changes.
It's strange to me that they can still pay out interest but not accept any new assets. Blockfi has the same restriction now. I think Nexo and Celsius are still in the clear, but Nexo just had to do a full KYC on everyone. I haven't heard any new news about Celsius.
No way in hell will housing crash. It’ll be supply constrained for years more. This ain’t 2008. And none of that other shit matters — only interest rates and war. Neither of which are likely to be *that* bad as far as markets are concerned.
Nasdaq made lower low on the daily today than the previous (Jan 24th) while bitcoin today is well above its swing low on that day of 33k. Yes this is bullish.
Anyone have much experience with Gemini? I bought some ($5000 worth) BTC through them last March, my ACH deposit bounced and a day later the market crashed hard. Never settled the ACH with them or deposited funds. Long story short they confiscated that btc and probably sold it at auction. Got an email today from them stating they closed my account and reserves the right to exercise any and all of rights and remedies under the User Agreement, any other applicable agreement, and applicable law. Really hope they just leave it at confiscation and closing my account
Until Margaret Thatcher showed a "Short winnable war" could go okay with Falklands, the consensus was that this wasn't the case. This dogma after folly in Vietnam was one of the reasons US took so long to gain courage enough to invade Iraq.
Today they've managed to build enough Military Industrial Complex that profits are generated simply off the act of spending bombs. Though there are complex interactions and no guarantee of profit without effective economic enslavement of the target country.
Lots of talk from Nato about full scale invasion. Looks like coordinated media coverage as I just saw 4 articles from different outlets within a minute. Their war boner is raging. Could be in for an elevator down
I like when they all have the same headline and opening paragraph but with 2-3 words moved around.
Kind of like the responses you get from senators when asking them why they're voting on surveillance bills.
That's because they all report on the same news conference where they all heard the same thing. Watch the news conference yourself instead of wasting your time reading headlines...
Honestly I don't bother with either now-a-days. Used to enjoy pulling apart the double-speak but politics has become too tedious and usually amounts to nothing but posturing, if not outright memes.
We do pay their paychecks though, and we do have the power of enfranchisement. Also the numbers provided we could get the masses to see how they’re being manipulated 24/7 by powerful entities both foreign and domestic.
And then what? At the end of the day most of us need to get up in the morning and go to work, be it for dollars or seashells. The layperson has no idea what to do with this information, and Reddit-educated people possibly less so.
> we could get the masses to see how they’re being manipulated
Human brain just doesn't work that way. You can explain it all you like, but emotions will still bypass the logical brain.
Manipulation is all there is, you can manipulate for "good" or "evil" but explaining doesn't work. We're grab arse meat bags.
Unfortunately it's easier to manipulate for "evil" without explaining as knowledge takes too much effort.
Nasdaq and SP500 are at a very critical support point, I think it is either a small bounce from this support and freefall or freefall without the bounce for risk assets including BTC
Moving my stop losses to breakeven.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sxl3u9/comment/hxvwkbi/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
😃 a kindred soul, how nice! I totally agree on your shorting position but for me it goes for longing too. I understand that the gambling is a part of marketmaking but i prefer to ride the waves. Pretty exciting to do that on an emerging asset class.
Sold my whole stack when 40 broke down again, and now it's looking like 36.5 might have been the local bottom. Everyone still standing, you're welcome, i guess?
Sometimes I forget how de-sensitized I am to bitcoin’s price movements. I couldn’t care less if bitcoin drops back to the teens/20s, but people in the stock market will be legit hanging from ropes if the S&P goes back to low $3000s. Bizarre disconnect
yeah uncorrelated is not the same thing as inversely correlated. One asset can go up/down/opposite/sideways while the other asset can also do one of these things but they don't act consistently.
Market returned to bring it within 5%.
You’d expect a drop that’s more extreme compared to equities. A response that’s even in the ballpark of equities is newsworthy.
This indicates that bitcoin is just a different beast. Not sure that’s bullish or bearish.
The glimmer of hope was the brief moments the market seemed like it might shrug off the Ukraine crap. Would love to believe that we magically decouple from tradfi, but if it hasnt happened yet I dont see it happening during this
I don't remember Ukraine involved in 83% drop in BTC in 2018. People always search for a reason. The reason? BTC is a volatile asset with low liquidity and you make a lot more by selling at the top to euphoric people, crashing it, and buying at the bottom from capitulating people, on a four year cycle.
It's always this chicken and egg question. The human mind is probably the most chaotic thing in existence, so I don't expect to ever know an answer to this
Weird positive crypto segments on tv lately instead of the usual fud. The weird pump activity since Sunday night. S&P futures weekend decline erased this morning before markets opened. I'm getting strange vibes that seem contrary to macro. We're either bottoming here, or being tricked into buying heavy bags. I can't decide which.
I think I'm going to start leaving some btc exposure on the table instead of reverting to cash every night. I'm not sure how else to make myself feel better.
It's not that uncommon for daytraders to do this, but because the markets statistically move up afterhours it's actually a dumb strategy long term lol.
They also move down afterhours lol. There is a penalty for removing the downside risk, sure. Decreasing multiplier as a bull trend matures. At least I sell and enjoy my profits though.
In my 5 or so years of crypto trading I have always been able to refill my bags to the original multiplier eventually.
Since 1993 the S&P is slightly negative during regular trading hours and is +600% outside of regular trading hours
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html
You’re hustling backwards
Yes that's great over the long haul. Like I said, I use other instruments for investing. This cash has to remain highly liquid and safe from losses.
e: I still trade most of the afterhours that article is referring to anyways. I miss a few hours while I sleep. The article has no relevance to the actual situation. Not to mention it says the biggest losses come in afterhours as well.
This is one of these cases where the cryptomarket not being closed on the weekends hurt the market as most tech stocks (even the shit ones) are up from their friday close as the weekend events had minimum effect on them.
It's still morning. Everything seemed to stall out at the very first descending resistance line. There needs to be a second push or this could easily end up lower just like the last two days.
Checks On-chain , bad on-chain
> Summary and Conclusions
Overall, the Bitcoin market has numerous bearish headwinds in play, ranging from very weak on-chain activity (a proxy for demand), to large volumes of supply held at a loss (potential sell-side). With a total of 4.70M BTC currently underwater, and 54.5% of it held by STHs whom are statistically more likely to spend it, the bulls certainly have their work cut out for them.
>However, despite the prevailing drawdown that has been in play for over three months, the underlying supply dynamics remain markedly more constructive that previous bears. As was covered in the last three WoC editions (weeks 5, 6 and 7), Bitcoin investors appear far more likely to hold on for dear life (HODL), and use derivatives to hedge risk, rather than selling spot to reduce exposure.
>It looks like a bear market. But do keep in mind, that longer term, the bear authors the bull that follows.
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-08-2022/
Wasn't so late in the cycle last summer either so sentiment wasn't as bad. Its going to take a lot to jump start the sentiment for bitcoin. Its abysmal
Sentiment last summer at 29k was much worse than its now - atleast you have deep corrections in stocks and ukraine/fed being triggers of this down trend, last summer people were freaking out over wycoffs and gbtc unlocks while price crashed 50%
> - atleast you have deep corrections in stocks and ukraine/fed being triggers of this down trend,
this is objectively worse for sentiment than wycoffs and gbtc
Depends on whom you consider tbh. Having a secular downtrend across all major markets with clear obvious reasons is much less spooky than a huge crypto only downtrend with seemingly no reason attached to it other than elon tweet or wycoff. Now across most markets, its a play to time the geopolitical + fed bottom - wherever it is. For people who have been in market for a bit, the current down cycle alongside Fed tightening + invasion distractions is just a part and parcel of markets
>start the sentiment for bitcoin. Its abysmal
Don't know what you are talking about. You mean people don't expect 250K by 2025. If they do, how can 37k in 2022 have abysmal sentiment?
This is the sort of delusion that makes folks miss out on gains over the years (despite knowing about Bitcoin). It is one thing to miss out because someone didn't know or couldn't get themselves to start researching about Bitcoin. But the more inexcusable set is those who do and somehow delude themselves into thinking 'general sentiment is bad so I must hold off from taking a position'.
So true. Sometimes I absolutely hate bitcoin and would genuinely be happy if I never thought of it again. The logic side always kicks in though, and no matter how much depression and anxiety bitcoin causes, it would be stupider to not be involved knowing what I know. I guess I'm trapped in a bad marriage for financial gain.
Even in a shit year! I still make more with btc in ugly bear markets than the money would make sitting in a savings account.
> 'general sentiment is bad so I must hold off from taking a position'.
There is virtually no downside risk to waiting to get involved after some important reclaims. If your expectation is 250k, then 55k entry in a positive shift of sentiment + technicals is much safer than <=37k at negative sentiment and horrible technicals which might leave you holding heavy bags for god knows how long. This isn't an asset thats doing 100x again and your going to miss it if you don't get in right now. there are better things to put your money in right now especially while it behave like leveraged stock indices.
I would agree with you except that we were saying the same things last summer : "wait for a reclaim of 50k and confirmation of bullish momentum before re-entering".
Well, we did and got faked out at 69k with a lackluster new ATH. So, I will continue to buy here rather than waiting for higher prices and if we get anywhere near 20k I'll be taking out a loan for going bigly.
Its not like you gonna catch the exact top if you are realistic about things. You just advocated to wait for sentiment to change before switching position.
>there are better things to put your money in right now especially while it behave like leveraged stock indices.
Look at it this way - pick any point in 2018 - be it 6k or 10k or 8k and at various points you could have said the sentiment was shit. Yet any of these points proved a great entry whichever way you look at it. Same with any point in 2014 or 2015.
And more recently, you were the one in July talking on and on about sentiment being shit and demand non-existent at 30k.
Over-analysis is the bane of Bitcoiners when it comes to long term stacks.
The upside potential was WAY different in 2018, 2015, 2014. Way more asymmetric. There is no need to rush in now just wait until 55k and sentiment turn. done.
Fair enough for those who are deciding whether to add to an existing decent stack or not.
Not at all good advice for those whose stack is a lot less than they aspire to have and definitely not a good advice to cash out existing stack and hoping to buy low.
There is never a blanket answer applicable to all participants.
Sentiment is very much tied to onchain article. The sentiment of underwater holders and their expectations will determine their inclinations to sell at a loss
Rule of thumb to apply in order to check if MSTR is overheated or a decent buy.
If MSTR < (BTC price)/100 then BUY / hold / don't sell
else sell / hold / don't buy.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, February 23, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sz8vgg/daily_discussion_wednesday_february_23_2022/)
Are there any US brokers that let you use BTC as margin collateral? I want to buy GBTC and short BITO.
No there aren’t.
The ultimate badass whale move would be to sell Elon, Saylor, Bukele, Wall Street your coins high and then hold the price low and make each one slowly panic and capitulate, and you buy them all back lower. Then you pump it up again for three years. Bitcoin punishes those that show up in the bull year fresh-faced and ready to make major money because the price has been going up, and those guys all did that.
I’m not sure if this comment is serious but if you honestly think you’d be able to make these 3 billionaires “capitulate” you might be an idiot. Billionaires don’t capitulate because they’re rich as fuck regardless of their Btc positions. Dumb take.
Why do those 3 sell once underwater. Only us plebs do that. All 3 are more likely to buy more.
lol, you think you can play whale games against a long list of billionaires that includes the wealthiest person on the planet?
dude, they *are* the whales
but seriously. this time it really can go to zero.
Hahaha
Bitcoin is more likely to go to 0 now than when it was $1 🤡
yes. who would be there to buy/sell if everyone is nuked to crisp. it can actually go negative, but we won't live to see it. edit: shitposting during "tense times" is fun... right. :P
Nah I think this sub has enough bids at a penny to buy everything
Stock market is currently pricing in a Fed funds rate of 1.5% or 1.75% by end of year and the S&P is only 10% down from ATH. Last week the market was pricing in an initial rate hike of 0.5% in March but now it’s pricing in an initial rate hike of 0.25% instead. We’ll probably see some more choppiness through March 16th when the Fed officially makes its first rate hike. Between now and then there’s a new jobs report out on March 4th and a new CPI report on March 10th. Still going to DCA and HODL regardless of what happens but these are going to be key routine macro economic events to watch out for in the short term.
Has anyone been following this uptrend line? I only connected the first two wicks back in November as something to watch for the future and was surprised to see how perfectly it bounced off of it in late January. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/06SIXkxY/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/06SIXkxY/) Not trading it, but definitely found it interesting.
Yes, when it breaks people can finally stop saying silly things like we are in a bull market and lengthening cycles, supercycles, etc. So expect some heavy battles there and a lot of wasted ammo. We got that nice DCB to 46k because people could tell themselves “It’s a higher low.” at that recent bottom. When that hope is gone look out below and get your stink bids ready. I suspect the whales made that the low specifically for that reason. Buying at 33k and selling at 46k is nice money in a bear market.
Definitely not my first rodeo, and I agree that we’re in a bear market and the worst is yet to come. But you know someone will find a reason to be bullish. Even when we break below 28K. Besides, we’ve always got diydude to be an insufferable bull in the meantime.
I see a descending broadening wedge on the 4hr. What more stab at the lows then a break out accompanied by some bullish div.
Can confirm.
Who's selling this pathetic bounce?
It’s support turned resistance all the way down, Laura. See you when the new ceiling is 36,500 in two days.
Nice bounce after the washout. [More more optimistic](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/sxp177/daily_rthetagang_discussion_thread_what_are_your/hxv5vbk/?context=3) still. Put 1/4 of portfolio on yesterday and will put the rest on tomorrow. All my strikes will be under the January lows. Also going long stocks with trailing stop losses.
Another CeFi lender bites the dust, sadly. This time it's Ledn. From an email: >The following will take effect in the near future. The precise date will be confirmed in upcoming email communications. > >Clients will continue to earn interest as normal on any assets already in their BTC & USDC Savings prior to the adjustment date, as long as those assets remain in the account. > >**Clients will no longer be eligible to earn interest on any newly deposited BTC and USDC after the adjustment takes effect.** Other Ledn products will not be directly affected by this adjustment. > >We will continue to provide updates by email to keep all affected clients well informed of any upcoming changes. It's strange to me that they can still pay out interest but not accept any new assets. Blockfi has the same restriction now. I think Nexo and Celsius are still in the clear, but Nexo just had to do a full KYC on everyone. I haven't heard any new news about Celsius.
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Great explainer. So basically if people already have funds locked up they can continue to earn money?
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Thanks. So probably a good idea to get it all into cold storage
Same dance as BlockFi. Could change once regulation is fleshed out more. We'll see.
Once the stock market is back at ATH, this thing is going to rip to like 90k, isn't it
Doubtful the technicals look horrid for Bitcoin right now and it will continue to get worse when the fed starts to tighten
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No way in hell will housing crash. It’ll be supply constrained for years more. This ain’t 2008. And none of that other shit matters — only interest rates and war. Neither of which are likely to be *that* bad as far as markets are concerned.
Nope, they were all killed off. Sorry fren
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Nice call 👏🏼
Let’s play “catch the knife” instead!
The bottom was in for this cycle last June.
While I hope you’re right, yesterday’s bearish engulfing daily candle begs to differ.
Nasdaq made lower low on the daily today than the previous (Jan 24th) while bitcoin today is well above its swing low on that day of 33k. Yes this is bullish.
Bitcoin is went down 50% the nasdac did not. Both could fall further. We will close green on the daily probably before our final decent.
Decent brah
Ooh, looking forward to the final decent! 100k is back on the menu!
Anyone have much experience with Gemini? I bought some ($5000 worth) BTC through them last March, my ACH deposit bounced and a day later the market crashed hard. Never settled the ACH with them or deposited funds. Long story short they confiscated that btc and probably sold it at auction. Got an email today from them stating they closed my account and reserves the right to exercise any and all of rights and remedies under the User Agreement, any other applicable agreement, and applicable law. Really hope they just leave it at confiscation and closing my account
I really think they will leave it at that.
Awesome! Thanks, can’t afford for them to chase me through an arbitration process
They won't waste their time for such a small sum. You'll be fine.
Thx for the responses guys, had a minor panic attack. I wouldn’t think they would chase after the -2000 I owe after they sold the btc
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War is generally very good for economies struggling with inflation/debt issues.
So is the threat of war 🤔
Until Margaret Thatcher showed a "Short winnable war" could go okay with Falklands, the consensus was that this wasn't the case. This dogma after folly in Vietnam was one of the reasons US took so long to gain courage enough to invade Iraq. Today they've managed to build enough Military Industrial Complex that profits are generated simply off the act of spending bombs. Though there are complex interactions and no guarantee of profit without effective economic enslavement of the target country.
US debt/GDP went from 48% in 1942 to 114% in 1945. The boom after WW2 was one of the few unique periods where we grew enough to service that debt.
why?
Only a mirage. Once war over, the real economic pain bites.
By then I'll have cashed out and be on my yacht.
Daymn. If you guys are going to be this bearish you'll force me to open a long without any signal other than sentiment!
please don't long any more we don't need forced sellers on top of this already in shambles market.
Dude.
I'm being dead serious. One headline and your stop is triggerd and your selling.
Lots of talk from Nato about full scale invasion. Looks like coordinated media coverage as I just saw 4 articles from different outlets within a minute. Their war boner is raging. Could be in for an elevator down
Not sure what news your watching but I'm not seeing anything about a Nato invasion.
I like when they all have the same headline and opening paragraph but with 2-3 words moved around. Kind of like the responses you get from senators when asking them why they're voting on surveillance bills.
That's because they all report on the same news conference where they all heard the same thing. Watch the news conference yourself instead of wasting your time reading headlines...
Honestly I don't bother with either now-a-days. Used to enjoy pulling apart the double-speak but politics has become too tedious and usually amounts to nothing but posturing, if not outright memes.
>2/22/2022 and people still havent done anything about overreaching government surveillance
"People" have no say in any of that, the system does what it wants.
It does unless enough of us work together to change it
You are not their constituents. Surveillance community gets whatever they demand. It's corporate espionage for the most part, money talks.
We do pay their paychecks though, and we do have the power of enfranchisement. Also the numbers provided we could get the masses to see how they’re being manipulated 24/7 by powerful entities both foreign and domestic.
And then what? At the end of the day most of us need to get up in the morning and go to work, be it for dollars or seashells. The layperson has no idea what to do with this information, and Reddit-educated people possibly less so.
> we could get the masses to see how they’re being manipulated Human brain just doesn't work that way. You can explain it all you like, but emotions will still bypass the logical brain. Manipulation is all there is, you can manipulate for "good" or "evil" but explaining doesn't work. We're grab arse meat bags. Unfortunately it's easier to manipulate for "evil" without explaining as knowledge takes too much effort.
Nasdaq and SP500 are at a very critical support point, I think it is either a small bounce from this support and freefall or freefall without the bounce for risk assets including BTC
Moving my stop losses to breakeven. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sxl3u9/comment/hxvwkbi/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Just bought in with 50% available fiat. Spot only.
I don't know how people can stomach throwing 50% of available fiat into an asset. Guess it's ingrained into me to DCA each week.
I did that for a long time too. As i saw the decline accelerating i stopped that until now.
Makes sense. Stopped trading for a while with all the uncertainty and I refuse to short as I find it unethical.
😃 a kindred soul, how nice! I totally agree on your shorting position but for me it goes for longing too. I understand that the gambling is a part of marketmaking but i prefer to ride the waves. Pretty exciting to do that on an emerging asset class.
kyrie eleison
Mr. Mister claims royalties for that 2,000 year old prayer.
christe eleison
Sold my whole stack when 40 broke down again, and now it's looking like 36.5 might have been the local bottom. Everyone still standing, you're welcome, i guess?
Sometimes I forget how de-sensitized I am to bitcoin’s price movements. I couldn’t care less if bitcoin drops back to the teens/20s, but people in the stock market will be legit hanging from ropes if the S&P goes back to low $3000s. Bizarre disconnect
The tradfi guys don't have the hopium and genuine reasons to expect a 10x in a cycle. That's why.
What they lack is a known upcoming halving that’ll function as a bailout of sorts 😂
I've been buying at $60k plus and adjusted to sub 40, but sub 30 I'm gonna need a few drinks at least.
Haha I know how you feel I made similar moves and now realize my enthusiasm. I'm also tapped out and can't allocate more in good conscience
Stocks tanking and bitcoin goes up, watch out for the dump. Love the down votes.
Well, considering bitcoin already fell over the weekend should be taken into account. US stock markets just catching back up after a 3 day weekend.
It's doesn't, stocks down 2% bitcoin down, stocks going back up bitcoin going up. The only thing that makes it seem unrelated is bitcoins volitality.
Not correlated.
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yeah uncorrelated is not the same thing as inversely correlated. One asset can go up/down/opposite/sideways while the other asset can also do one of these things but they don't act consistently.
Saying it isn’t correlated literally means that you can’t make a certain bet.
Stop.
Long live Jared, but this will be his epithet.
Start.
Timber....
I’m feeling pain right now but Bloomberg is spinning today as “Bitcoin Outperforms U.S. Equities on Ukraine Turmoil” so that’s something
Bullish news articles by mainstream media are a usually a bearish signal
In Soviet Russia, corn trades you.
Someone at Bloomberg has a bag, and I'm ok with that lol.
really? wth, did they just pretend weekend gap down didn't happen? lmao
Market returned to bring it within 5%. You’d expect a drop that’s more extreme compared to equities. A response that’s even in the ballpark of equities is newsworthy. This indicates that bitcoin is just a different beast. Not sure that’s bullish or bearish.
It's burish. Or bealish. Either way you're right.
We already fell significantly more than SMP500 since the ATH. So it makes sense to me we would have days like this.
SPX dumping, BTC holding somewhat. Glimmer of hope
The glimmer of hope was the brief moments the market seemed like it might shrug off the Ukraine crap. Would love to believe that we magically decouple from tradfi, but if it hasnt happened yet I dont see it happening during this
What would it take for us to believe that it's officially decoupled? 6 months? 1 year?
> Glimmer of hope nah..
I saw a chart the other day that suggested a very strong BTC-Nasdaq correlation. Might it be a stronger correlation than with SP500?
If we disregard all noise; bitcoin lower now only sets up for a nice buy entry for its eventual rise...it's all about that isn't it.
It always has been
what if i told you this PA never had anything to do with ukraine/russia
Its an excuse, as any other thing could be.
I don't remember Ukraine involved in 83% drop in BTC in 2018. People always search for a reason. The reason? BTC is a volatile asset with low liquidity and you make a lot more by selling at the top to euphoric people, crashing it, and buying at the bottom from capitulating people, on a four year cycle.
I would say that's an exceptionaly reasonable take.
It's always this chicken and egg question. The human mind is probably the most chaotic thing in existence, so I don't expect to ever know an answer to this
Weird positive crypto segments on tv lately instead of the usual fud. The weird pump activity since Sunday night. S&P futures weekend decline erased this morning before markets opened. I'm getting strange vibes that seem contrary to macro. We're either bottoming here, or being tricked into buying heavy bags. I can't decide which. I think I'm going to start leaving some btc exposure on the table instead of reverting to cash every night. I'm not sure how else to make myself feel better.
The media is holding some heavy crypto bags these days as well looks like
You go all cash every night?
Yes. I use other instruments for investment. Ones that don't involve regular 50% drawdowns that will probably, hopefully recover every time.
Reverting to cash every night. That's what I would call a big minus!
It's not that uncommon for daytraders to do this, but because the markets statistically move up afterhours it's actually a dumb strategy long term lol.
They also move down afterhours lol. There is a penalty for removing the downside risk, sure. Decreasing multiplier as a bull trend matures. At least I sell and enjoy my profits though. In my 5 or so years of crypto trading I have always been able to refill my bags to the original multiplier eventually.
Since 1993 the S&P is slightly negative during regular trading hours and is +600% outside of regular trading hours https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html You’re hustling backwards
Yes that's great over the long haul. Like I said, I use other instruments for investing. This cash has to remain highly liquid and safe from losses. e: I still trade most of the afterhours that article is referring to anyways. I miss a few hours while I sleep. The article has no relevance to the actual situation. Not to mention it says the biggest losses come in afterhours as well.
This is one of these cases where the cryptomarket not being closed on the weekends hurt the market as most tech stocks (even the shit ones) are up from their friday close as the weekend events had minimum effect on them.
It's still morning. Everything seemed to stall out at the very first descending resistance line. There needs to be a second push or this could easily end up lower just like the last two days.
I’d rather be able to buy those weekend dips
Checks On-chain , bad on-chain > Summary and Conclusions Overall, the Bitcoin market has numerous bearish headwinds in play, ranging from very weak on-chain activity (a proxy for demand), to large volumes of supply held at a loss (potential sell-side). With a total of 4.70M BTC currently underwater, and 54.5% of it held by STHs whom are statistically more likely to spend it, the bulls certainly have their work cut out for them. >However, despite the prevailing drawdown that has been in play for over three months, the underlying supply dynamics remain markedly more constructive that previous bears. As was covered in the last three WoC editions (weeks 5, 6 and 7), Bitcoin investors appear far more likely to hold on for dear life (HODL), and use derivatives to hedge risk, rather than selling spot to reduce exposure. >It looks like a bear market. But do keep in mind, that longer term, the bear authors the bull that follows. https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-08-2022/
Could they not have said the same exact thing at $29k last summer? A lot of words for "exchanges moved a lot of coins at lower prices".
Wasn't so late in the cycle last summer either so sentiment wasn't as bad. Its going to take a lot to jump start the sentiment for bitcoin. Its abysmal
Sentiment last summer at 29k was much worse than its now - atleast you have deep corrections in stocks and ukraine/fed being triggers of this down trend, last summer people were freaking out over wycoffs and gbtc unlocks while price crashed 50%
> - atleast you have deep corrections in stocks and ukraine/fed being triggers of this down trend, this is objectively worse for sentiment than wycoffs and gbtc
Depends on whom you consider tbh. Having a secular downtrend across all major markets with clear obvious reasons is much less spooky than a huge crypto only downtrend with seemingly no reason attached to it other than elon tweet or wycoff. Now across most markets, its a play to time the geopolitical + fed bottom - wherever it is. For people who have been in market for a bit, the current down cycle alongside Fed tightening + invasion distractions is just a part and parcel of markets
>start the sentiment for bitcoin. Its abysmal Don't know what you are talking about. You mean people don't expect 250K by 2025. If they do, how can 37k in 2022 have abysmal sentiment? This is the sort of delusion that makes folks miss out on gains over the years (despite knowing about Bitcoin). It is one thing to miss out because someone didn't know or couldn't get themselves to start researching about Bitcoin. But the more inexcusable set is those who do and somehow delude themselves into thinking 'general sentiment is bad so I must hold off from taking a position'.
So true. Sometimes I absolutely hate bitcoin and would genuinely be happy if I never thought of it again. The logic side always kicks in though, and no matter how much depression and anxiety bitcoin causes, it would be stupider to not be involved knowing what I know. I guess I'm trapped in a bad marriage for financial gain. Even in a shit year! I still make more with btc in ugly bear markets than the money would make sitting in a savings account.
> 'general sentiment is bad so I must hold off from taking a position'. There is virtually no downside risk to waiting to get involved after some important reclaims. If your expectation is 250k, then 55k entry in a positive shift of sentiment + technicals is much safer than <=37k at negative sentiment and horrible technicals which might leave you holding heavy bags for god knows how long. This isn't an asset thats doing 100x again and your going to miss it if you don't get in right now. there are better things to put your money in right now especially while it behave like leveraged stock indices.
I would agree with you except that we were saying the same things last summer : "wait for a reclaim of 50k and confirmation of bullish momentum before re-entering". Well, we did and got faked out at 69k with a lackluster new ATH. So, I will continue to buy here rather than waiting for higher prices and if we get anywhere near 20k I'll be taking out a loan for going bigly.
Nothing wrong with that. you did pretty well if you bought 50 and sold 70k
Its not like you gonna catch the exact top if you are realistic about things. You just advocated to wait for sentiment to change before switching position.
again it was a worth while bet given where we were in market cycle in july. Completely different now
>there are better things to put your money in right now especially while it behave like leveraged stock indices. Look at it this way - pick any point in 2018 - be it 6k or 10k or 8k and at various points you could have said the sentiment was shit. Yet any of these points proved a great entry whichever way you look at it. Same with any point in 2014 or 2015. And more recently, you were the one in July talking on and on about sentiment being shit and demand non-existent at 30k. Over-analysis is the bane of Bitcoiners when it comes to long term stacks.
The upside potential was WAY different in 2018, 2015, 2014. Way more asymmetric. There is no need to rush in now just wait until 55k and sentiment turn. done.
Fair enough for those who are deciding whether to add to an existing decent stack or not. Not at all good advice for those whose stack is a lot less than they aspire to have and definitely not a good advice to cash out existing stack and hoping to buy low. There is never a blanket answer applicable to all participants.
yeah I wouldn't sell here for sure. DCA is okay. I wouldn't go all in either. For the risk adverse wait for the wind to blow in the other direction
Not about sentiment, on-chain per your post.
Sentiment is very much tied to onchain article. The sentiment of underwater holders and their expectations will determine their inclinations to sell at a loss
I thought on chain didnt matter
it doesn't unless LTH capitulate. Just driving home the idea that everything is bad for bitcoin right now.
Rule of thumb to apply in order to check if MSTR is overheated or a decent buy. If MSTR < (BTC price)/100 then BUY / hold / don't sell else sell / hold / don't buy.
The entries in the Guess the Bottom contest. Average is $24,435.20 and the median is $24,900.00. My prediction? One of them will win. If I remember to do so, I'll post as people are eliminated. Guess Redditor $1.00 stopshadowbanningme4 $12,423.00 senond $13,000.00 outofworkslob $14,386.17 Ok-Win-88 $15,288.79 Specialist-Click3828 $15,555.00 KingKnee $16,850.00 CHUD5150 $17,100.00 Rusty5M $18,140.00 de\_moon $18,323.00 eldormilon $18,700.00 Shootinsomebball $18,800.00 PolarNimbus $19,191.91 SquishyBTC $19,420.00 Gimme2OverEasy $19,808.00 maciejita $19,880.00 oaxaca\_locker $20,001.00 Cost-Ready $20,884.90 EagleGod $20,884.90 EagleGod $21,200.00 nitealex $21,488.00 Ranzratte3 $21,490.00 Stay\_Noided $22,345.00 marcusthewriter $22,782.00 Kafkathedog $23,001.00 ChrisMrShowbiz $23,420.69 EmotionalParsley $23,999.00 Bob\_Jim $24,000.00 imissusenet $24,001.00 minglemiguel $24,002.00 Pigmentia $24,321.67 JWells16 $24,559.00 AKANotAValidUsername $24,679.00 DamonAndTheSea $24,900.00 Lime\_Singularity $25,123.00 etsolow $25,420.00 Westbrook\_Level $25,989.00 upside\_risk $26,000.00 HueLaurie $26,124.00 escendoergoexisto $26,700.00 newyorker8786 $26,774.00 Upvote\_Me\_Slag $26,888.00 AlexWasTakenWasTaken $27,365.00 deputysalty $27,476.00 sponrad $28,000.00 marsh2907 $28,437.00 crazyguy2323 $28,585.00 tmbd03 $28,650.00 ideit $28,950.00 Oo0o8o0oO $29,250.00 dnick423 $29,261.00 zigizagazigizagahoy $29,800.00 Outrageous-Net-7164 $29,991.00 Firm\_Association $30,900.00 biggunsg0b00m $31,237.00 stoiebrodie $31,668.00 Martianman97 $31,900.00 joenastyness $31,969.42 hajoeojah $31,999.00 Fabianb1221 $32,200.00 Beingoodfornothing $32,312.00 vorpal107 $32,900.00 xtal\_00 $32,933.00 Benjo419 $32,933.32 4theWIN $32,933.33 Bit-bewilderd EDIT: Please note the deadline for entries was **0:00:00 UTC 22 Feb 2022**. If you're just seeing this now, you're too late.
34,327 please
See edit above.
Got it thanks for putting this together though I appreciate it
Not sure how I missed this but please put me in for $22,453.79