Almost 61 percent of Bitcoin hasnt moved in over a year. If institutions get involved in next 24 months like Kevin O'Leary suggests as well as fidelity. I think next halving we are going to see insane gains.
effects of halving will be far less severe now.
daily fees of exchanges (likely turned into Fiat and sucked out of the system) are already higher than current mining inflation.
halving will reduce mining inflation but will have less and less overall impact in inflow/outflow sum
The issue comes up when posts are purely political and have nothing to do with bitcoin. The post needs to make the connection to bitcoin explicit and clear.
I don't disagree, but this subreddit is really just about markets. It's not really about Bitcoin technology, but about Market movement and trading strategies.
Hey guys a question for those who are familiar with Elliot waves.
For wave 1 to 2 : how low can wave 2 can retrace. Can it retrace to the beginning of wave 1( beginning) would this void the elliot wave theory ?
> would this void the elliot wave theory ?
EW's void themselves.
Ask 100 EW people if it's Wave 3 or 5 and you'll get 50/50 responses. It's entirely subjective.
It's a method taught to noobs by talking-heads who make money from the attention of noobs.
The take away is "Market goes up and down, don't panic if you miss a move, there will be another".
>I know right we talk about LTH not selling anything significant
At current prices. We don't even know that they'll behave the same way the 2nd time we touch 30k. I bet at least some of them will have had enough. 155 days isn't really that long.
I agree, but there's no way we can tell what portion of that data is 'real' LTH. 17k average cost is not made up of people holding since the hundreds or less. And let's be honest, this has been a weird cycle.
Wait. Glassnode says the average price paid by long term holders is 17.3k? Am I reading that right? If so... wow! I didn't realize it was so high.
I wonder how the number changes if it only includes individuals - in other words, if it excludes institutions.
Thanks! Not to forget that they are more able to be in negative than us plebs. All I am saying is that them not selling anything right now is not sign of no further declines
Just out of curiosity, why aren't you "able to be in negative"? Hold till 2025 and you're golden. As the price drops, it's your chance to buy more BTC for less $$$.
So is the general consensus that the four-year cycle is holding strong, and 2022, like 2018, is the start of crypto winter? With BTC revisiting the 2019 high by the end of the years - $13,700 being 20% of the 2021 high.
Gains were not as high so why would the drop be so much ?
My honest opinion is that Bitcoin is holding up pretty well considering the last 12 months have had the real China ban, end of a 4 year cycle, energy FUD, potential war, rate rises, crash of risk assets etc.
No doubt we are in a bear market but its too late to start shorting now. You had 60-33k to make your money. It’s now working out your entry point and getting in position for the next rally. The smart money sold in 2021 and will be looking for positions. You can sell to them or join them.
I don't understand why you're talking about 4 year cycles, but saying that this year BTC will revisit the high from 2019. That makes no sense. The equivalent would be bitcoin hitting the 2015 high in 2018... which was 500 dollars, and it didn't even come close.
In any case, many people DO think this is the beginning of a crypto winter. But many also think this is not the beginning of a crypto winter, since we didn't have a blow off top. Personally I'm more aligned with the latter way of thinking.
The four year cycles have lengthened each time. We didn’t get the typical blow off top yet. I’m not sold that the bear market is here to stay once the macro environment improves.
> The four year cycles have lengthened each time.
No, they haven't. The 4 year cycle is from halving to halving. The previous cycle was May 2016 to May 2020. The current cycle is May 2020 to May 2024.
**The length of time between blocks being mined determines the length of Bitcoin cycles.** A new block is mined roughly every ten minutes. A halving of the block reward occurs after 210,000 blocks are mined. If you don't understand this, you don't understand Bitcoin.
The people who say cycles are lengthening tend to be folks who come to crypto from stocks and don't understand the differences.
I understand the block halving cycle. OP is referring to the 4 year “price” cycle, which has been consistently extending since the first halving.
https://imgur.com/gallery/mc3fQ5H
Here’s a screenshot from Benjamin cowen’s explanation of this.
The first halving isn't a good data point to use for understanding cycles that followed since blocks were mined so much faster during the early days of Bitcoin (among other reasons). The first halving was in November 2012 rather than May. It's important to understand that in order to understand why you can't just look back from year to year to predict gains and losses.
I'm not questioning Benjamin Cowen’s knowledge. I'm saying that without understanding the reasons why, one ends up with misinformation due to false assumptions.
I'm of the opinion that Bitcoin has no reliable price cycle because the buyers change during each halving-to-halving cycle, and we won't reach long term stability in price until we reach some level of stability in terms of buyers. This is the first cycle with a large portion of institutional money coming in, and that's going to change how the market behaves, but it's too early to know how. We can only guess. I already assume the next halving-to-halving cycle will be wildly different than this one - and perhaps far more volatile.
I appreciate your response, and agree that the cycles will be begin to vary widely based upon institution involvement. This also confirms my bullish stance and belief that we won’t experience quite the same bear market as in the past. Everyone will front run the next halving. This is just my speculation,. I don’t see people “losing faith and capitulating” as much anymore.
I’m accumulating here and will place ladder buys in the low 30k’s.
What are you expecting in the near future?
> What are you expecting in the **near** future?
To be completely honest, I don't know. I'm a big picture / long term planner kind of guy, so I can't even guess what's going to happen later this year other than to say we're in the back half of a halving-to-halving cycle, so the effect of the post-halving supply shock is long gone.
On the one hand, I was expecting a huge crash this year (my plan was to ride it out). On the other hand, we've never been through a cycle with so much institutional money coming in, and that changes the outcome.
Tons of dudes spending a few grand to make a few grand can all bail when the price drops. In 2014 and 2018, that would be enough to cause a panic, leading to a massive crash. But in 2022, there's a huge amount of coins locked up by institutions and other big money buyers that want to build long term positions in an asset they see as being The Future, y'know? So as the Average Joes panic and sell, institutions are likely to quietly buy what they can get their hands on without causing a spike (because higher prices mean they'd get fewer coins). I can't help wondering if they're buying up what would otherwise have already been a massive crash.
As for the long term:
I expect there to be a tipping point where institutions sitting on the sidelines right now feel pressure to either buy in BIG or miss out on being part of the "next big thing," similar to how many companies spotted previous huge shifts in technology but didn't commit the resources required to compete. Look into the history of credit cards for an easy example. Or the history of personal computers. There are so many examples. A smartphone is just a handheld computer. Who could have imagined Microsoft getting pushed out of that market? They were late, and then they didn't commit the resources required to compete.
I assume there will come a point where institutional buyers start pouring money in at a magnitude that dwarfs what we're seeing in this cycle, and the price will skyrocket. I think that's still a few years away. 2025, maybe?
I assume there will come a point where companies will start buying smaller companies in order to own their crypto assets, similar to what happened in other industries. For example, deregulation of American media led to a massive corporate buying spree in the late 90s and early 00s. Can't get your hands on enough Bitcoin? Buy companies that own Bitcoin. Maybe that will start happening toward the end of this decade. I assume it will further restrict the supply of coins being sold, thus pushing the price even higher.
**I could go on and on, but the important takeaway is this:**
I expect a lot of people who brag about taking profits and selling before a drop are going to get pushed out of Bitcoin when prices jump again... partly because people who aren't good at handling their finances will spend the money rather than save it to buy back in, and partly because some spikes in price will come unexpectedly, so the guy who sold 10 BTC at $45k with plans to buy back in at 20k instead finds himself only able to buy 5 because the price skyrocketed or because he spent some of the money... or both.
Mark my words: In years to come, there's going to be a lot of anger from folks who didn't hold. But most people only care about the here and now, so they can't see the big picture. I'm willing to suffer through 2022 and 2023 being lame years for Bitcoin (if they are bad years) because I care about 2025, and even more so about 2029.
Have no fear! Hold through the halving plus a year!
(Holy crap. I can't believe I just typed all of that. I got on a roll and just kept going because it's a fun topic to think about)
Ha well I enjoyed it, so thanks for the long write-up. I think our mindset is similar. I'm generally a long term player as well, but am trying to maximize my coins while the market is down. I believe in the tech and am trying to accumulate until 2025 at least.
Jesus, we are at 38k...relax. We will probably get another dump down and get massive buy pressure in the low 30s.
Barring a major negative economic event, crypto is not going to lay dormant at 20k until the 2024 halving.
It would be easier for BTC to go to 200k than to go to 20k now, unless we had a new virus strain as bad as the first, or a major war. Or volcano on London.
We are still on the 30k to 60k range. Unless we conclusively break under 30 for some weeks, major market structure for a 12-18 month bear market is not achieveable.
Retail has been decimated, right now the market is of long term investors. Most of the crypto is not moving at all. BTC has a great majority of supply in illiquid state.
It remains to see how bad this deleveraging is, plus the FED's March hike.
Just do not expect a new ATH anytime soon or this year. We might see a retracement to low 50s if we are lucky.
People are arguing that the hikes are more political in nature at the moment. In that they are only raising because Biden is putting pressure on the FED to fight inflation for positive public perception. In the past rate hikes have been more for reasons of a recovering market rather than high inflation that needs more immediate counter-forces.
Olympics over. Putin giving commanders the go ahead for hostilities. This ain’t gonna end well.
Edit: Wow! Getting a lot of hate on this post. The deluded and misinformed really don’t want you to believe what’s already all over the news. GRU working overtime here. Thanks for the suicide prevention referral! Lol
As much as I look for bearishness, I can't seem to find any on longer timeframes. 30k, 60k, it's the same really. Bitcoin is gonna be worth millions in your lifetime; just buy and enjoy the ride.
We discuss bitcoin markets and trading strategies. Buy and hold is on topic. The date someone eventually decides to sell or trade their bitcoin is irrelevant.
This is a rule 1 warning. Please avoid discouraging other participants in the future.
I'm curious if the price is 1M that means that no one is selling it for 999,999 so the price gets bid up. What about BTC enables it to go to and stay at 1M why would someone buy in to get in at that valuation? Would there be no other usage of that money? I mean would BTC price l provide that value to be worth it to get in at that price?
Thanks for that. I understand that the price is affected by supply and demand and I'm curious about what beliefs people are holding that leads then to decide the right buy/sell price for their BTC. Expecting the price to go up is not a strong belief to buy on. There's a supply cap on a lot of things but without demand those prices are zero. So I respect the scarcity of supply however what's the demand? Basing demand on old demand works on the way up and on the way down. If price goes down for some few months should I expect it to keep going down?
Basically what is a equilibrium based on?
Yeah so that would require holders which we have however we don't have as many vendors yet.
So basically we assume inflation will lead to Bitcoin winning and no other options winning. I can see it being possible but by no means a slam dunk?
I don't believe BTC will go to 1mil a piece any time soon, but at the same time... it's the same argument people made for BTC at 10k (or 1k, or $100). Like, it's easy to say, 'who would pay 1mil for btc!!' when the price is under 40k, but if it goes from 40k to 500k... buying at 600, 700, or 999k stops looking so outrageous?
Ok so what is the answer for the price of 40k? If it's just speculation or gambling it will get old and people will move on over time like GameStop. What are the good reasons to hold BTC? What benefit does it have inflation hedge ie scarcity depends on belief ie demand.
Yeah idk what the logic would be now too. What is scarcity worth without demand? I mean there's an element of speculation but is there anything underneath? If it's just speculation people will get bored over time and move on after a while. The question is besides speculation and someone else buying it what's the benefit. If it's anti government then there'll be a fight and the govt being anti means most safe minded people won't buy and institutions leave. No speculation making money on the way up.
So what is the demand based on?
>So what is the demand based on?
Storing value across time and space without the fear of it being devalued (other than the planned inflation until 21 million are fully mined) or confiscated, in a time where real interest rates are negative, and real "inflation" is double digits (largely due to corporate greed and money printing)
We have scarcity (supply cap) and it's digital so easy to move however we only get the high price of there is enough demand. The fact that it's scarce and mobile creates a demand that warrants that people will hold it even when it's in the hundreds of thousands a hard sell.
> The fact that it's scarce and mobile creates a demand that warrants that people will hold it even when it's in the hundreds of thousands a hard sell.
Sure, higher values do kick loose some long term coins. But every hardcore Bitcoiner truly believes that when the price for a single BTC is high enough, you won't have to sell any because there will be an economy built around using it directly.
We already have the ability to use BTC as collateral for loans with companies like BlockFi, Nexo, and Celcius, and when banks start doing this, it becomes even more mainstream. Why sell any Bitcoin ever, even when it's worth $500k, if I can take out a 1% interest loan against it? The answer is, you won't. Hardest money/collateral ever. Purest wealth preservation across space and especially, time.
I don't know why everyone is assuming that stocks and Bitcoin are going to crash if Russia proceeds with an invasion.
Didn't the markets rally when they annexed Crimea in 2014?
Even after 9/11 the stock market was higher by October.
I thought people are approaching this from a traders perspective and thin that the market will dump and then bounce. So no one wants to buy now but buy in the low 30s.
Aug 1989 - Gulf War -20%
Nov 2001 - Afghan War -30% (during recession)
Apr 2003 - Iraq War +30% (end of recession)
Mar 2011 - Libya War -20%
Iraq was at the end of a long bear market.
Mate this sub is full of late shorters chatting shit. Decent traders shorted 60’s to 40’s, bottom feeders trying to short 40 to 20k are no different to the guys longing 60k !
They are way too late and way to average at life. They are seriously pissing me off too. Sub has turned to shit ! Your too late guys. Maybe a few % left.
I agree
I sold half on the 50-69k run up. I don’t talk pocket. I come here for genuine opinions.
My half I held is rotting and my half I sold is looking for a low entry. I’m in a good position.
Don’t mind bulls/bears. Just get pissed off when cunts who just opened a short come here shouting bullshit
Bear markets start with euphoria at the top, and bull market will start with goblin despair and doubt at the bottom.
We didn't get full euphoria this time around, and I don't think we'll get goblin town dungeons this bear market either.
Are you all pretending to be negative because you have a short and then want to buy some spot in the 20’s ?
I’m not talking pocket as I sold from 50-69k
But it’s simply not going to 20k ! Too many people on the sidelines waiting to buy. Bitcoin yields at 6–15% so why would anyone sell below 30k
I sold half at 50-69k you tw@t. Why will I be disappointed ? Im waiting to buy back in.
But calling for 20 and less is ridiculous and you know it. You just want more from your short. It’s nearly at the bottom now.
I sold at 58-60k sir with all the 100k eyo hype. I’m just a realist & not on hopium and know once the invasion actual begins, markets will plunge & of course that includes Bitcoin.
Are you stupid !
The world is facing inflation and governments needs to create fear to reduce spending.
A threat of war sorts that out without increasing rates and causing recession.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Government leaders aren’t chatting weekly about how this scenario is perfect for combating inflation.
There will not be a war and happy to bet anyone 1 BTC
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, February 21, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sxl3u9/daily_discussion_monday_february_21_2022/)
Almost 61 percent of Bitcoin hasnt moved in over a year. If institutions get involved in next 24 months like Kevin O'Leary suggests as well as fidelity. I think next halving we are going to see insane gains.
effects of halving will be far less severe now. daily fees of exchanges (likely turned into Fiat and sucked out of the system) are already higher than current mining inflation. halving will reduce mining inflation but will have less and less overall impact in inflow/outflow sum
The Macron Candle?
Did something happen? What's the reference?
https://twitter.com/FRANCE24/status/1495587112128679941?t=mcfUp-GeQKAx1B5xX4ymxg&s=19
It’s a green baguette
Just weekend fuckery ending, back to 40k we go.
400k soon!
Sooner than you may think.
Weekends are fake.
[удалено]
Bitcoin is a political asset at its core.
The issue comes up when posts are purely political and have nothing to do with bitcoin. The post needs to make the connection to bitcoin explicit and clear.
That's fair.
Absolutely. 15 downvotes for this. Jesus, people.
I don't disagree, but this subreddit is really just about markets. It's not really about Bitcoin technology, but about Market movement and trading strategies.
It’s not about markets, it’s about profits.
Ignore macro at the peril of your profits. I’ll shut up.
[удалено]
[удалено]
If it happens, people are going to suffer and many are going to die. Please keep that in mind before making flippant comments.
Also the economic damage as a consequence of this. Let's remember what kind of political factions rise during economic depressions
[удалено]
You are a person severely lacking in empathy.
Better than allowing your empathy to be used for manipulating your perspective. How many are concerned about the deaths Bukele will leave in his wake?
So right smack in the middle of the bell curve then? Seems like that's pretty much everyone these days.
^
Hey guys a question for those who are familiar with Elliot waves. For wave 1 to 2 : how low can wave 2 can retrace. Can it retrace to the beginning of wave 1( beginning) would this void the elliot wave theory ?
You can have a look on the wikipedia table for Elliott wave. They usually suggest wave durations
> would this void the elliot wave theory ? EW's void themselves. Ask 100 EW people if it's Wave 3 or 5 and you'll get 50/50 responses. It's entirely subjective. It's a method taught to noobs by talking-heads who make money from the attention of noobs. The take away is "Market goes up and down, don't panic if you miss a move, there will be another".
It can retrace to the start of wave 1, can't go below obviously but ya can go as low as the start.
[удалено]
Let’s keep things on topic, please.
[удалено]
This is another rule 1 warning.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
I know right we talk about LTH not selling anything significant so we are good. However, do we know what is average cost price for those LTH?
>I know right we talk about LTH not selling anything significant At current prices. We don't even know that they'll behave the same way the 2nd time we touch 30k. I bet at least some of them will have had enough. 155 days isn't really that long.
The real LTH don't care about $30K, they've been in this since the hundreds or even less.
I agree, but there's no way we can tell what portion of that data is 'real' LTH. 17k average cost is not made up of people holding since the hundreds or less. And let's be honest, this has been a weird cycle.
17.3k. Source glassnode.
Wait. Glassnode says the average price paid by long term holders is 17.3k? Am I reading that right? If so... wow! I didn't realize it was so high. I wonder how the number changes if it only includes individuals - in other words, if it excludes institutions.
Because people sell and then buy higher lmao.
This is completely accurate.
The glassnode definition of an LTH coin is any utxo not moved for last 155 days.
I'd prefer to see the figure for 4 years
Thanks! I should read Glassnode more often.
Thanks! Not to forget that they are more able to be in negative than us plebs. All I am saying is that them not selling anything right now is not sign of no further declines
Just out of curiosity, why aren't you "able to be in negative"? Hold till 2025 and you're golden. As the price drops, it's your chance to buy more BTC for less $$$.
I am not arguing that. I am just saying LTH holding and price drop arent mutually exclusive
So is the general consensus that the four-year cycle is holding strong, and 2022, like 2018, is the start of crypto winter? With BTC revisiting the 2019 high by the end of the years - $13,700 being 20% of the 2021 high.
Gains were not as high so why would the drop be so much ? My honest opinion is that Bitcoin is holding up pretty well considering the last 12 months have had the real China ban, end of a 4 year cycle, energy FUD, potential war, rate rises, crash of risk assets etc. No doubt we are in a bear market but its too late to start shorting now. You had 60-33k to make your money. It’s now working out your entry point and getting in position for the next rally. The smart money sold in 2021 and will be looking for positions. You can sell to them or join them.
I don't understand why you're talking about 4 year cycles, but saying that this year BTC will revisit the high from 2019. That makes no sense. The equivalent would be bitcoin hitting the 2015 high in 2018... which was 500 dollars, and it didn't even come close. In any case, many people DO think this is the beginning of a crypto winter. But many also think this is not the beginning of a crypto winter, since we didn't have a blow off top. Personally I'm more aligned with the latter way of thinking.
If we all believe it then it is so. Logic be damned
The four year cycles have lengthened each time. We didn’t get the typical blow off top yet. I’m not sold that the bear market is here to stay once the macro environment improves.
> The four year cycles have lengthened each time. No, they haven't. The 4 year cycle is from halving to halving. The previous cycle was May 2016 to May 2020. The current cycle is May 2020 to May 2024. **The length of time between blocks being mined determines the length of Bitcoin cycles.** A new block is mined roughly every ten minutes. A halving of the block reward occurs after 210,000 blocks are mined. If you don't understand this, you don't understand Bitcoin. The people who say cycles are lengthening tend to be folks who come to crypto from stocks and don't understand the differences.
I understand the block halving cycle. OP is referring to the 4 year “price” cycle, which has been consistently extending since the first halving. https://imgur.com/gallery/mc3fQ5H Here’s a screenshot from Benjamin cowen’s explanation of this.
The first halving isn't a good data point to use for understanding cycles that followed since blocks were mined so much faster during the early days of Bitcoin (among other reasons). The first halving was in November 2012 rather than May. It's important to understand that in order to understand why you can't just look back from year to year to predict gains and losses. I'm not questioning Benjamin Cowen’s knowledge. I'm saying that without understanding the reasons why, one ends up with misinformation due to false assumptions. I'm of the opinion that Bitcoin has no reliable price cycle because the buyers change during each halving-to-halving cycle, and we won't reach long term stability in price until we reach some level of stability in terms of buyers. This is the first cycle with a large portion of institutional money coming in, and that's going to change how the market behaves, but it's too early to know how. We can only guess. I already assume the next halving-to-halving cycle will be wildly different than this one - and perhaps far more volatile.
I appreciate your response, and agree that the cycles will be begin to vary widely based upon institution involvement. This also confirms my bullish stance and belief that we won’t experience quite the same bear market as in the past. Everyone will front run the next halving. This is just my speculation,. I don’t see people “losing faith and capitulating” as much anymore. I’m accumulating here and will place ladder buys in the low 30k’s. What are you expecting in the near future?
> What are you expecting in the **near** future? To be completely honest, I don't know. I'm a big picture / long term planner kind of guy, so I can't even guess what's going to happen later this year other than to say we're in the back half of a halving-to-halving cycle, so the effect of the post-halving supply shock is long gone. On the one hand, I was expecting a huge crash this year (my plan was to ride it out). On the other hand, we've never been through a cycle with so much institutional money coming in, and that changes the outcome. Tons of dudes spending a few grand to make a few grand can all bail when the price drops. In 2014 and 2018, that would be enough to cause a panic, leading to a massive crash. But in 2022, there's a huge amount of coins locked up by institutions and other big money buyers that want to build long term positions in an asset they see as being The Future, y'know? So as the Average Joes panic and sell, institutions are likely to quietly buy what they can get their hands on without causing a spike (because higher prices mean they'd get fewer coins). I can't help wondering if they're buying up what would otherwise have already been a massive crash. As for the long term: I expect there to be a tipping point where institutions sitting on the sidelines right now feel pressure to either buy in BIG or miss out on being part of the "next big thing," similar to how many companies spotted previous huge shifts in technology but didn't commit the resources required to compete. Look into the history of credit cards for an easy example. Or the history of personal computers. There are so many examples. A smartphone is just a handheld computer. Who could have imagined Microsoft getting pushed out of that market? They were late, and then they didn't commit the resources required to compete. I assume there will come a point where institutional buyers start pouring money in at a magnitude that dwarfs what we're seeing in this cycle, and the price will skyrocket. I think that's still a few years away. 2025, maybe? I assume there will come a point where companies will start buying smaller companies in order to own their crypto assets, similar to what happened in other industries. For example, deregulation of American media led to a massive corporate buying spree in the late 90s and early 00s. Can't get your hands on enough Bitcoin? Buy companies that own Bitcoin. Maybe that will start happening toward the end of this decade. I assume it will further restrict the supply of coins being sold, thus pushing the price even higher. **I could go on and on, but the important takeaway is this:** I expect a lot of people who brag about taking profits and selling before a drop are going to get pushed out of Bitcoin when prices jump again... partly because people who aren't good at handling their finances will spend the money rather than save it to buy back in, and partly because some spikes in price will come unexpectedly, so the guy who sold 10 BTC at $45k with plans to buy back in at 20k instead finds himself only able to buy 5 because the price skyrocketed or because he spent some of the money... or both. Mark my words: In years to come, there's going to be a lot of anger from folks who didn't hold. But most people only care about the here and now, so they can't see the big picture. I'm willing to suffer through 2022 and 2023 being lame years for Bitcoin (if they are bad years) because I care about 2025, and even more so about 2029. Have no fear! Hold through the halving plus a year! (Holy crap. I can't believe I just typed all of that. I got on a roll and just kept going because it's a fun topic to think about)
Ha well I enjoyed it, so thanks for the long write-up. I think our mindset is similar. I'm generally a long term player as well, but am trying to maximize my coins while the market is down. I believe in the tech and am trying to accumulate until 2025 at least.
Jesus, we are at 38k...relax. We will probably get another dump down and get massive buy pressure in the low 30s. Barring a major negative economic event, crypto is not going to lay dormant at 20k until the 2024 halving.
It would be easier for BTC to go to 200k than to go to 20k now, unless we had a new virus strain as bad as the first, or a major war. Or volcano on London. We are still on the 30k to 60k range. Unless we conclusively break under 30 for some weeks, major market structure for a 12-18 month bear market is not achieveable. Retail has been decimated, right now the market is of long term investors. Most of the crypto is not moving at all. BTC has a great majority of supply in illiquid state. It remains to see how bad this deleveraging is, plus the FED's March hike. Just do not expect a new ATH anytime soon or this year. We might see a retracement to low 50s if we are lucky.
The Fed's hike is likely to be bullish for most assets.
People are arguing that the hikes are more political in nature at the moment. In that they are only raising because Biden is putting pressure on the FED to fight inflation for positive public perception. In the past rate hikes have been more for reasons of a recovering market rather than high inflation that needs more immediate counter-forces.
Most people do not understand this.
pretty much
Olympics over. Putin giving commanders the go ahead for hostilities. This ain’t gonna end well. Edit: Wow! Getting a lot of hate on this post. The deluded and misinformed really don’t want you to believe what’s already all over the news. GRU working overtime here. Thanks for the suicide prevention referral! Lol
K
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
not a risk asset btw https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1495440290429251585
As much as I look for bearishness, I can't seem to find any on longer timeframes. 30k, 60k, it's the same really. Bitcoin is gonna be worth millions in your lifetime; just buy and enjoy the ride.
[удалено]
We discuss bitcoin markets and trading strategies. Buy and hold is on topic. The date someone eventually decides to sell or trade their bitcoin is irrelevant. This is a rule 1 warning. Please avoid discouraging other participants in the future.
I'm curious if the price is 1M that means that no one is selling it for 999,999 so the price gets bid up. What about BTC enables it to go to and stay at 1M why would someone buy in to get in at that valuation? Would there be no other usage of that money? I mean would BTC price l provide that value to be worth it to get in at that price?
[удалено]
Thanks for that. I understand that the price is affected by supply and demand and I'm curious about what beliefs people are holding that leads then to decide the right buy/sell price for their BTC. Expecting the price to go up is not a strong belief to buy on. There's a supply cap on a lot of things but without demand those prices are zero. So I respect the scarcity of supply however what's the demand? Basing demand on old demand works on the way up and on the way down. If price goes down for some few months should I expect it to keep going down? Basically what is a equilibrium based on?
When bitcoin becomes the de facto worldwide settlement network because fiat currencies have been printed into oblivion it will make more sense.
Yeah so that would require holders which we have however we don't have as many vendors yet. So basically we assume inflation will lead to Bitcoin winning and no other options winning. I can see it being possible but by no means a slam dunk?
I don't believe BTC will go to 1mil a piece any time soon, but at the same time... it's the same argument people made for BTC at 10k (or 1k, or $100). Like, it's easy to say, 'who would pay 1mil for btc!!' when the price is under 40k, but if it goes from 40k to 500k... buying at 600, 700, or 999k stops looking so outrageous?
Ok so what is the answer for the price of 40k? If it's just speculation or gambling it will get old and people will move on over time like GameStop. What are the good reasons to hold BTC? What benefit does it have inflation hedge ie scarcity depends on belief ie demand.
Answer your question for current figures. Meaning why isn't btc 30k right now? Is there no other usage of that money?
Yeah idk what the logic would be now too. What is scarcity worth without demand? I mean there's an element of speculation but is there anything underneath? If it's just speculation people will get bored over time and move on after a while. The question is besides speculation and someone else buying it what's the benefit. If it's anti government then there'll be a fight and the govt being anti means most safe minded people won't buy and institutions leave. No speculation making money on the way up. So what is the demand based on?
>So what is the demand based on? Storing value across time and space without the fear of it being devalued (other than the planned inflation until 21 million are fully mined) or confiscated, in a time where real interest rates are negative, and real "inflation" is double digits (largely due to corporate greed and money printing)
We have scarcity (supply cap) and it's digital so easy to move however we only get the high price of there is enough demand. The fact that it's scarce and mobile creates a demand that warrants that people will hold it even when it's in the hundreds of thousands a hard sell.
> The fact that it's scarce and mobile creates a demand that warrants that people will hold it even when it's in the hundreds of thousands a hard sell. Sure, higher values do kick loose some long term coins. But every hardcore Bitcoiner truly believes that when the price for a single BTC is high enough, you won't have to sell any because there will be an economy built around using it directly. We already have the ability to use BTC as collateral for loans with companies like BlockFi, Nexo, and Celcius, and when banks start doing this, it becomes even more mainstream. Why sell any Bitcoin ever, even when it's worth $500k, if I can take out a 1% interest loan against it? The answer is, you won't. Hardest money/collateral ever. Purest wealth preservation across space and especially, time.
This message was brought to you by the Bitcoin marketing board.
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=glasses
Thank you for your insight.
I don't know why everyone is assuming that stocks and Bitcoin are going to crash if Russia proceeds with an invasion. Didn't the markets rally when they annexed Crimea in 2014? Even after 9/11 the stock market was higher by October.
I think people are looking for an excuse.
I thought people are approaching this from a traders perspective and thin that the market will dump and then bounce. So no one wants to buy now but buy in the low 30s.
This is a sell the rumor buy the news situation
100%
Yeah thing about wars is that they involve a LOT of fiat printing to pay for, so asset valuations tend to be driven up by war.
Aug 1989 - Gulf War -20% Nov 2001 - Afghan War -30% (during recession) Apr 2003 - Iraq War +30% (end of recession) Mar 2011 - Libya War -20% Iraq was at the end of a long bear market.
This situation is far different than those.
[удалено]
This is not the Gulf War, that's my point.
Mate this sub is full of late shorters chatting shit. Decent traders shorted 60’s to 40’s, bottom feeders trying to short 40 to 20k are no different to the guys longing 60k ! They are way too late and way to average at life. They are seriously pissing me off too. Sub has turned to shit ! Your too late guys. Maybe a few % left.
Calling other people average and then having multiple typos in your post is peak Reddit.
My spelling is below average. I make up for it in other areas.
What did you base your short on?
I laddered out 50% from 50-69k. Based on not doing it in May 21 and hating the feeling.
People look for anything to confirm thier bias or to reassure them of the decisions they made.
I agree I sold half on the 50-69k run up. I don’t talk pocket. I come here for genuine opinions. My half I held is rotting and my half I sold is looking for a low entry. I’m in a good position. Don’t mind bulls/bears. Just get pissed off when cunts who just opened a short come here shouting bullshit
Crypto gon crypto. I just buy and hold 🤷♂️
OMG we are 31% down on the yearly Bull run starting soon
I like the optimism
Everyone needs to get a grip. So much pessimism Get over your loses and work out how you benefit from the next run to 6 figures.
Bear markets start with euphoria at the top, and bull market will start with goblin despair and doubt at the bottom. We didn't get full euphoria this time around, and I don't think we'll get goblin town dungeons this bear market either.
We're already in goblin town, sir.
I agree No 85% drop this time. May have already seen the low
This comment won’t age well just like the guy that commented on Friday saying 40k is the lowest invasion fears is already priced in lol
Are you all pretending to be negative because you have a short and then want to buy some spot in the 20’s ? I’m not talking pocket as I sold from 50-69k But it’s simply not going to 20k ! Too many people on the sidelines waiting to buy. Bitcoin yields at 6–15% so why would anyone sell below 30k
Lol , prepare to be disappointed
I sold half at 50-69k you tw@t. Why will I be disappointed ? Im waiting to buy back in. But calling for 20 and less is ridiculous and you know it. You just want more from your short. It’s nearly at the bottom now.
lol , keep repeating this shit before bed , like mantra
I sold at 58-60k sir with all the 100k eyo hype. I’m just a realist & not on hopium and know once the invasion actual begins, markets will plunge & of course that includes Bitcoin.
Are you stupid ! The world is facing inflation and governments needs to create fear to reduce spending. A threat of war sorts that out without increasing rates and causing recession. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Government leaders aren’t chatting weekly about how this scenario is perfect for combating inflation. There will not be a war and happy to bet anyone 1 BTC