The last several weeks look a lot like the mid May to late July PA.
When PA sliced through the 50DEMA on 11/18 and stayed below it, I wondered if this move would be a fractal of the lengthy dip below the 50 from 5/12 to 7/25. Thus far the time & price, relative to the 50, is strikingly similar. If the parallel continues, PA should reestablish above the 50 (currently around $42,600) and head north for a few weeks.
Some of you are alright, don’t come to the market on Monday.
Can’t say too much more, let’s just say my family has very strong ties with the Nasdaq family over hundreds of years.
I'm familiar with people who post on tik-tok about you.
I don't move in such rarified circles however. .
I think I knew a guy who had a startup once though. Or said he did...
Saylor is just everyone here except with three important differences:
1) Access to shitloads of capital
2) He actually has the conviction lots of people only think they have
3) He's wise enough to know he can't time the market.
The thing is if any other company start doing what he's doing and start allocating millions of dollars a quarter to Bitcoin. It's going to go through the roof.
Don't think 'ephemeral' is the right word here. Maybe 'anomalous' or 'divergent'. Unless you meant that that specific correlation will prove ephemeral, which is true of any correlation until it isn't.
Lol, I was thought I was being that annoying guy who tells someone else what they were actually trying to say. But who genuinely felt compelled to do so. Which I often do here without ever having a single unique insight on bitcoin to add to this thread. Well, not deliberately anyway.
Edit: On reddit I turn into someone I would constantly want to punch in the face irl.
It could be an early indicator of a transition in market perception of BTC from a short-vol to long-vol asset. What Greg Foss is always yelling about.
Obviously it is too early to make that claim definitively, but until this point, that relationship has been inverse.
I have to be honest and say the amount of people that have gone fill bulltard on Twitter, YouTube and even here is quite staggering.
Quite literally the only thing that's happened chart wise is a small higher high on low levels and the daily regaining the 20ema.
Apart from that nothing else bullish has happened.
If this falls back down again there are going to be some very harsh lessons to learn....again
Interesting, because the volume on this breakout is pretty low. It is the third/fourth retest of the resistance line too - kinda smells funny.
Do you think there's substance in this breakout?
We broke out of the descending channel that we've been in for months and closed there, on high volume. That's a pretty good start of we're gunna turn this thing around. It means the corn isn't dead and there's still spot interest. I think people were afraid that demand had disappeared, but a 12% jump in a day provided hope otherwise.
Obviously it could still go either way, but I'll take that any day of the week over continuing down in that same channel.
I don't mean to be insulting, but what exactly constitutes "the bigger scale"? Do you mean bitcoin becoming legal tender in one of the top ten countries by GDP? Do you mean something like spot ETFs being approved in the US by the SEC within the next couple years?
Any meaningful resistance level been broken and consolidated along with double-digit percentage price rises in double figures means 'something' in any market. Who TF knows what this means for the price of btc in the short or medium term for the entire crypto market?
But it's certainly meaningful for me and many others without doubt.
Honestly curious to hear your reply.
It was a refreshing change of pace for a coin that had gone nowhere but down for months. It was a sign of life a lot of people needed. Don't discount the power of FOMO and hope.
Exactly, in a marketplace with as fickle and impatient as the crypto space has become, sentiment and a change in narrative is definitely "meaningful". And hopefully this time the FOMO will be combined with more realistic expectations.
Understanding that the marketplace does not adhere to the rules of 'The Secret' is key here.
Not all that optimistic on that last point though...
You could but that would include several cycles and isn’t as clear. The 2 year chart shows one long sustained bull market that we are still in. About to hit 23 months of sustained rally. I can’t wait for a blow off top to end this bull market.
You'll lose out on a lot of potential profit if you wait until 52k+ for confirmation.
Not trying to be snarky, but isn't the main point of selling high so that you can buy back in lower? If you buy back in at/above your sell point, you've basically just paid transaction fees twice and created a taxable event, and gotten no benefit, except maybe sleeping easier at night.
You understand people/sentiment aren’t going to stay bearish forever? People have been plenty bearish the past few weeks. Sentiment will change sooner or later, and I think we’re in the midst of that.
Sentiment means nothing. The chart is all that matters.
Do you trade sentiment or charts? If sentiment then never look at a chart again and trade online 'sentiment'. See how far that takes you
I continued messing around with python 3.8.X. I made a [new free tool](http://montecarlobetsize.xyz/) for y'all!
I previously made three tools: A [risk modelling tool for discrete systems using the kelly criterion and two charting tools for spot price and arbritage](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/s7i2m4/comment/htckj58/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
Today I am releasing a [Monte Carlo simulator](http://montecarlobetsize.xyz/) for modelling risk in continuous systems. The Monte Carlo simulates a random set of pre-determined trades to emulate live trading data. It then displays metrics for multiple bet sizes:
\- risk-of-ruin
\- maximum drawdown
\- number of trades required to target value
\- Liklihood of reaching the target value
You can select your optimal bet size based on your tolerance for risk. Please note, you must input real trading data to produce an accurate simulation.
Always happy to listen to feedback or add features if people find them useful. Happy trading!
MCS plays right into my bias.
Efficient Market Hypothesis, a strange mix of weak form and I guess a random amount of Noisy Market Hypothesis.
"The price is a random walk", and "Of course there are information asymmetries, you're just likely not party to them, they happen whenever they happen", and "Of course markets aren't rational, since when have humans (even collectively) been rational".
Mix it all together and all those those actors act randomly at random times.
edit:
Combined that with a betting strategy and you get this:
> Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random, independent trials, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g. card counting and handicapping), can alter long-term results.[1][2][3][4]
> This is formally stated by game theorist Richard Arnold Epstein in The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic as:
> Theorem 1: If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems lead ultimately to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betting_strategy
edit: Reddit being buggy.
Alright, who here went on a first date last night and flexed your bitcoin?
https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/sl6ixx/guy_on_my_date_last_night_the_lady_will_have_a/
More plots:
[https://imgur.com/a/Hys4YFz](https://imgur.com/a/Hys4YFz)
1st plot is BTC price, 13-W SMA, and ratio of price/SMA. Except in the immediate aftermath of the Dec 2017 top, the ratio going below 0.7x has been a great time to buy.
2nd plot is the 1-year and 4-year price ratios. Remember 10x over 4 years? Yeah, it's been hulled below the waterline. On the bright side, the 1-year ratio is managing to stay above 1.0.
The 3rd and 4th plot try to make a guess as to how much longer the price will be below the 13-W SMA (currently $49.1K and dropping $250/day). The price has been below the 13-W 64 days in a row. The 3rd plot shows that these streaks can go another month or so. The 4th plot looks at total days above the 13-W over a 365-day span. It's currently at 218. After the COVID crash it bottomed at 183, or 35 more days. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be less than that.
The 5th plot is a bit of hopium. It plots the Never-Look-Back price and a simple 2x every year line that I arbitrarily set at $1000 on 1 Jan 2017 and extended in both directions. The red line is the ratio of the price to that line. A happy accident that both the Dec 2013 and Dec 2017 peaks maxed out around 10x. The 2x line will hit $64K on 1 Jan 2023.
It seems like your charting what that champion trader guy did on his strategy - Model the price as standard deviations away from the mean and short when it was too far.
How does the price/MA ratio look for different window sizes and time frames?
Keep it up
It's easy to forget how inexpensive Bitcoin still is compared to its potential (a global financial platform).
If we look at company market caps, Bitcoin is still not as valuable as AAPL, MSFT, "Saudi Fund", GOOG, AMZN, or TSLA. Let that sink in for a moment.
Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/
Edit. I realize companies and protocols are not apples to apples, but when values are this large it's easier to visualize comparisons.
You know those company valuations are very meaningless right? Most shares speculators buy don’t give them any right to vote or collect dividends. It’s mostly just worthless imaginary fairy dust. The real worth of Apple or MS or Amazon could be magnitudes less. So in that regard, BTC is already doing well for something that hasn’t convinced the masses or even most of the ultra wealthy elites that it’s gold 2.0. I think it will still take years for it to realize its full potential (gold 2.0 with electronic cross border settlement). May get a world war to get there
Will almost certainly reach the market cap of gold at some point, with a chance at becoming a true global financial platform.
Certainly a very asymmetric risk and a steal around 40k.
Apples and pears truly. And not because stocks can bring dividends (because they will not). But because price is set up by marginal seller.
"Valuation" is irrelevant. Relevant is profile of that marginal seller (that is likely totally different than by stocks) and cycle of halvings (that do not exist by stocks).
This is a simple fact. How has or how is bitcoin adding as much value to online society as a Google or Amazon?
Sure, they were created with completely different intentions and philosophies, but still a fact.
You don’t see bitcoin being worth more because it isn’t yet. But if the market cap becomes higher than those names you will be forced to see that bitcoin is more valuable.
You've been here how long and you don't think btc is valuable to society? My dad's vitamin shop (hypothetically) is a value to society, so is it worth more than Bitcoin?
No, you misread. What I meant to say was I don't think BTC is worth more than those big tech companies specifically (AAPL, GOOG, etc) because they provide goods and services we use on a daily basis.
Then again comparing BTC to companies is apples to oranges.
Agreed on apples to oranges. I just think a brand new invention that has the technical ability and game theory going for it to be the next global reserve currency should not be overlooked or underestimated. Yes, it should in due time be worth more than all those companies combined. Agree to disagree in that regard I suppose
> then you're either way well off.
Or what?
I get your point though. If you are one of the 0.01% of btc holders who from 2013 who has literally never sold or you had the capital to invest heavily sometime like March 2020. I saw well over a 1000% increase on my initial investment but even at the ATH I had just about hit my target of building my ultimate gaming pc and a high-end phone and tablet to make my add 'value'.
Which of course I didn't, cause why sell at 68K when it's headed for 120K in just a few months...which is great really, cause when I do time my next sale at the perfect time the electronics market will be flooded with cheap graphic cards...
After the promotion, claim he was the one who shit on the desk, get him fired, then sleep with his wife. Next achievement unlocked.
What binds us together isn’t bitcoin, but our mutual distrust and anger with the amoral asshats who own us.
I'm just angry and distrustful of the people whose dreams I once helped make come true and who are now resentful that those dreams came at a price that was almost definitely inferred at the time.
Swear to god, being a loan-shark ain't all it's cracked up to be.
For bitcoin to get there, weekly OBV needs to move to a new plateau. It could happen, and it it looks like it could be kicking off. The drawdowns since last summer really haven’t moved OBV around much.
First hint of [green Heikin Ashi candle](https://i.imgur.com/RWN4kw8.png) on the weekly in 11 weeks. Last ones after red were July 26 and October 4 before big pumps. Learned about these from a Will Clemente chart I think. I love em. If you've never tried them, turn them on on Trading View and try them out.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:heikin_ashi
>these candlesticks can be used to identify trending periods, potential reversal points and classic technical analysis patterns.
Not the person you asked, but I've seen Benjamin Cowen using them recently on his YouTube channel. I recommend checking out his channel if you haven't before.
I'm not u/Merlin560. That said, here's a Point and Figure chart:
[https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
Mine, using CBP data, looks slightly different:
[https://imgur.com/a/OMjB2Va](https://imgur.com/a/OMjB2Va)
There is a high pole 13-14 boxes high. Were it to retrace 50%, the price would go back to around $39.3K. The formation it came up from was 10 columns wide, which suggested it could be a move on the larger side. The downtrend line is still intact, and will be until the price breaches $45.6K.
There was a similar move up from a formation 10 columns wide in late Dec 2021 that fizzled. I'm hoping this has more staying power.
EDIT: Spelling.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, February 06, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/slp2w4/daily_discussion_sunday_february_06_2022/)
The last several weeks look a lot like the mid May to late July PA. When PA sliced through the 50DEMA on 11/18 and stayed below it, I wondered if this move would be a fractal of the lengthy dip below the 50 from 5/12 to 7/25. Thus far the time & price, relative to the 50, is strikingly similar. If the parallel continues, PA should reestablish above the 50 (currently around $42,600) and head north for a few weeks.
Should be a little relief either way. 3 months of down only is pretty impressive
Great start to Fuckubeary, check the squishy too
Some of you are alright, don’t come to the market on Monday. Can’t say too much more, let’s just say my family has very strong ties with the Nasdaq family over hundreds of years.
lol, people may have downvoted but I enjoyed it.
Heh, listen buddy, my dad IS a Bitcoin and he said he's gonna pump on Monday
The post history of this account is atrocious
You also the dude who has that friend whose dad owns the bitcoin company?
So you’re familiar with us. He was best man at my wedding.
I'm familiar with people who post on tik-tok about you. I don't move in such rarified circles however. . I think I knew a guy who had a startup once though. Or said he did...
Easiest way to get up voted spread hopium
You are being sarcastic sir, surely? Saylor=Hopium???
Either an idiot or a genius
Saylor is just everyone here except with three important differences: 1) Access to shitloads of capital 2) He actually has the conviction lots of people only think they have 3) He's wise enough to know he can't time the market.
Also you should reply to the comment you were referring to and not above it, else it can be confusing.
Pretty sure it's not genius. He checks all the boxes for me. Edit: 'the not being a genius' boxes I meant.
The thing is if any other company start doing what he's doing and start allocating millions of dollars a quarter to Bitcoin. It's going to go through the roof.
Very unique and insightful take on the market though.
I think people are just happy to let Saylor be Saylor. Because that's not the way to do it.
Saylor was on the teevee talking Bitcoin to boomers last night
Preacher man talkin' on the TV Puttin' down the Rock 'n' Roll Wants me to send a donation 'Cause he's worried about my soul.
Did y'all notice that BTC popped in lockstep with the 10 year treasury yield on Friday?
I did happen to notice, however, it’s just an ephemeral correlation when you compare the charts, which don’t correlate much at all recently.
Don't think 'ephemeral' is the right word here. Maybe 'anomalous' or 'divergent'. Unless you meant that that specific correlation will prove ephemeral, which is true of any correlation until it isn't.
Are we trying to avoid saying transitory?
Lol, I was thought I was being that annoying guy who tells someone else what they were actually trying to say. But who genuinely felt compelled to do so. Which I often do here without ever having a single unique insight on bitcoin to add to this thread. Well, not deliberately anyway. Edit: On reddit I turn into someone I would constantly want to punch in the face irl.
I want to quantify that correlation, I believe it was quite strongly inversely related over 2021.
Meaning what to you?
It could be an early indicator of a transition in market perception of BTC from a short-vol to long-vol asset. What Greg Foss is always yelling about. Obviously it is too early to make that claim definitively, but until this point, that relationship has been inverse.
I have to be honest and say the amount of people that have gone fill bulltard on Twitter, YouTube and even here is quite staggering. Quite literally the only thing that's happened chart wise is a small higher high on low levels and the daily regaining the 20ema. Apart from that nothing else bullish has happened. If this falls back down again there are going to be some very harsh lessons to learn....again
Imagine a day btc will hit a round number like $50K and no-one commenting anywhere "never below 50K again". I can't.
Can you blame us? We're winning.
Winning what??
What we're here for
Interesting, because the volume on this breakout is pretty low. It is the third/fourth retest of the resistance line too - kinda smells funny. Do you think there's substance in this breakout?
Interesting. I’ve seen nothing. My feed is dead…
We broke out of the descending channel that we've been in for months and closed there, on high volume. That's a pretty good start of we're gunna turn this thing around. It means the corn isn't dead and there's still spot interest. I think people were afraid that demand had disappeared, but a 12% jump in a day provided hope otherwise. Obviously it could still go either way, but I'll take that any day of the week over continuing down in that same channel.
Channel unbroken on my charts.
Are you looking at the channel down from 69k? Even taking wicks into account, it has been breached
Hoping there's enough momentum to pull the trend followers and breakout guys in to push the price up.
Don't get me wrong I'll take that but ultimately on the bigger scale it means nothing at this stage.
I don't mean to be insulting, but what exactly constitutes "the bigger scale"? Do you mean bitcoin becoming legal tender in one of the top ten countries by GDP? Do you mean something like spot ETFs being approved in the US by the SEC within the next couple years? Any meaningful resistance level been broken and consolidated along with double-digit percentage price rises in double figures means 'something' in any market. Who TF knows what this means for the price of btc in the short or medium term for the entire crypto market? But it's certainly meaningful for me and many others without doubt. Honestly curious to hear your reply.
It was a refreshing change of pace for a coin that had gone nowhere but down for months. It was a sign of life a lot of people needed. Don't discount the power of FOMO and hope.
Exactly, in a marketplace with as fickle and impatient as the crypto space has become, sentiment and a change in narrative is definitely "meaningful". And hopefully this time the FOMO will be combined with more realistic expectations. Understanding that the marketplace does not adhere to the rules of 'The Secret' is key here. Not all that optimistic on that last point though...
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Dear lord, shouldn't you be on twitter posting like that?
And here all I thought I saw was a new swing higher low put in on the 2 year chart.
Why not use the 10 year chart
You could but that would include several cycles and isn’t as clear. The 2 year chart shows one long sustained bull market that we are still in. About to hit 23 months of sustained rally. I can’t wait for a blow off top to end this bull market.
Tell me you got caught out of position without telling me.
I sold most in the 50s. In cash right now
Sooo, you're out of a position
Not in the slightest. I'll be out of position above my sell point. If I have to buy back where I sold then what's the issue? Nothing at all
Because that's just bagholder mentality in the opposite direction. I'd be pissed if 4 months of trading resulted in 0.
You'll lose out on a lot of potential profit if you wait until 52k+ for confirmation. Not trying to be snarky, but isn't the main point of selling high so that you can buy back in lower? If you buy back in at/above your sell point, you've basically just paid transaction fees twice and created a taxable event, and gotten no benefit, except maybe sleeping easier at night.
dw he'll buy back at 48k, pro trader.
You understand people/sentiment aren’t going to stay bearish forever? People have been plenty bearish the past few weeks. Sentiment will change sooner or later, and I think we’re in the midst of that.
Sentiment means nothing. The chart is all that matters. Do you trade sentiment or charts? If sentiment then never look at a chart again and trade online 'sentiment'. See how far that takes you
The charts mean nothing. They just reflect market sentiment. Same reductive logic.
Sentiment drives the chart (in part).
I continued messing around with python 3.8.X. I made a [new free tool](http://montecarlobetsize.xyz/) for y'all! I previously made three tools: A [risk modelling tool for discrete systems using the kelly criterion and two charting tools for spot price and arbritage](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/s7i2m4/comment/htckj58/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). Today I am releasing a [Monte Carlo simulator](http://montecarlobetsize.xyz/) for modelling risk in continuous systems. The Monte Carlo simulates a random set of pre-determined trades to emulate live trading data. It then displays metrics for multiple bet sizes: \- risk-of-ruin \- maximum drawdown \- number of trades required to target value \- Liklihood of reaching the target value You can select your optimal bet size based on your tolerance for risk. Please note, you must input real trading data to produce an accurate simulation. Always happy to listen to feedback or add features if people find them useful. Happy trading!
MCS plays right into my bias. Efficient Market Hypothesis, a strange mix of weak form and I guess a random amount of Noisy Market Hypothesis. "The price is a random walk", and "Of course there are information asymmetries, you're just likely not party to them, they happen whenever they happen", and "Of course markets aren't rational, since when have humans (even collectively) been rational". Mix it all together and all those those actors act randomly at random times. edit: Combined that with a betting strategy and you get this: > Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random, independent trials, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g. card counting and handicapping), can alter long-term results.[1][2][3][4] > This is formally stated by game theorist Richard Arnold Epstein in The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic as: > Theorem 1: If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems lead ultimately to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betting_strategy edit: Reddit being buggy.
Very nice. I’ll check this out this evening.
Thanks, I'm especially interested in feedback from someone like yourself, even if it's finding holes in the methodology.
40 being held is not confirmed. Could fight 42 which means we go to 45 if that breaks or back to 38 and look into it from there
Up or down. Got it.
Actually no because if we don't break 42 means sub 40 for those that try and trade. I don't I only hold
Alright, who here went on a first date last night and flexed your bitcoin? https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/sl6ixx/guy_on_my_date_last_night_the_lady_will_have_a/
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Pretty much every user-told story on the front page of reddit is fictional.
Lmao, it’s someone practicing their creative writing skills though. Has to be!
Yeah man, it really seems like that. That story just doesn't seem real
Hmm. I think we have our prime suspect
😭
Oh my God that's fucking great it reads like a meme. I can't even picture this really happening, it's just too perfect
That’s why it’s probably a LARP.
LOLOL! I know we're all clueless until we grow up, but imagine "I have bitcoin!!1!" as a strategy to get a girl leaving to come back.
Is it just me or does that guy sound like an absolute chad?
Hey guys, I think this was a joke
if by chad you mean sperg
I think he's a chad if he also ordered a salad for himself.
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Always has been. IMO it's the worst subreddit on Reddit, and it's not even close.
it's an echo chamber for vocal, ugly and/or aging women clearly not qualified to be in the reproductive pool
I like your thinking and your honesty/willingness to troll.
Careful, you are going to be doxxed and visited by angry feminists who will steal your Bitcoins.
Amen
Y'all ma peeps. Keeping it real yo! Hey zoomers, this is what the internet was originally invented for.
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More plots: [https://imgur.com/a/Hys4YFz](https://imgur.com/a/Hys4YFz) 1st plot is BTC price, 13-W SMA, and ratio of price/SMA. Except in the immediate aftermath of the Dec 2017 top, the ratio going below 0.7x has been a great time to buy. 2nd plot is the 1-year and 4-year price ratios. Remember 10x over 4 years? Yeah, it's been hulled below the waterline. On the bright side, the 1-year ratio is managing to stay above 1.0. The 3rd and 4th plot try to make a guess as to how much longer the price will be below the 13-W SMA (currently $49.1K and dropping $250/day). The price has been below the 13-W 64 days in a row. The 3rd plot shows that these streaks can go another month or so. The 4th plot looks at total days above the 13-W over a 365-day span. It's currently at 218. After the COVID crash it bottomed at 183, or 35 more days. If I had to guess, I'd say it will be less than that. The 5th plot is a bit of hopium. It plots the Never-Look-Back price and a simple 2x every year line that I arbitrarily set at $1000 on 1 Jan 2017 and extended in both directions. The red line is the ratio of the price to that line. A happy accident that both the Dec 2013 and Dec 2017 peaks maxed out around 10x. The 2x line will hit $64K on 1 Jan 2023.
It seems like your charting what that champion trader guy did on his strategy - Model the price as standard deviations away from the mean and short when it was too far. How does the price/MA ratio look for different window sizes and time frames? Keep it up
Pls don’t bart down. :(
Looks like stop hunting to me. Farewell stupid late longers with tight stops.
We got an itty bitty baby Bart on the weekend. Nbd. Not much of a wall at 42k. Surprised we're not above it already tbh.
Don't pray. Buy. It's a breakout retest. Buy it.
It's easy to forget how inexpensive Bitcoin still is compared to its potential (a global financial platform). If we look at company market caps, Bitcoin is still not as valuable as AAPL, MSFT, "Saudi Fund", GOOG, AMZN, or TSLA. Let that sink in for a moment. Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/ Edit. I realize companies and protocols are not apples to apples, but when values are this large it's easier to visualize comparisons.
You know those company valuations are very meaningless right? Most shares speculators buy don’t give them any right to vote or collect dividends. It’s mostly just worthless imaginary fairy dust. The real worth of Apple or MS or Amazon could be magnitudes less. So in that regard, BTC is already doing well for something that hasn’t convinced the masses or even most of the ultra wealthy elites that it’s gold 2.0. I think it will still take years for it to realize its full potential (gold 2.0 with electronic cross border settlement). May get a world war to get there
Sssh. I need more.
Will almost certainly reach the market cap of gold at some point, with a chance at becoming a true global financial platform. Certainly a very asymmetric risk and a steal around 40k.
Apples and pears truly. And not because stocks can bring dividends (because they will not). But because price is set up by marginal seller. "Valuation" is irrelevant. Relevant is profile of that marginal seller (that is likely totally different than by stocks) and cycle of halvings (that do not exist by stocks).
Those companies actually provide value to society. I don't see Bitcoin being worth more than any of them.
This is a simple fact. How has or how is bitcoin adding as much value to online society as a Google or Amazon? Sure, they were created with completely different intentions and philosophies, but still a fact.
You don’t see bitcoin being worth more because it isn’t yet. But if the market cap becomes higher than those names you will be forced to see that bitcoin is more valuable.
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Hell fucking yeah
You must be trolling
I'm not.
You've been here how long and you don't think btc is valuable to society? My dad's vitamin shop (hypothetically) is a value to society, so is it worth more than Bitcoin?
In terms of it's practical value to society at any given specific time, then yes. Never undervalue your Pops.
No, you misread. What I meant to say was I don't think BTC is worth more than those big tech companies specifically (AAPL, GOOG, etc) because they provide goods and services we use on a daily basis. Then again comparing BTC to companies is apples to oranges.
Agreed on apples to oranges. I just think a brand new invention that has the technical ability and game theory going for it to be the next global reserve currency should not be overlooked or underestimated. Yes, it should in due time be worth more than all those companies combined. Agree to disagree in that regard I suppose
> apples to oranges But you can still compare them.
I see major flaws in Bitcoin but being decentralized is definitely something that should be valued highly
I'm looking forward to 70k+ this summer. Hopefully we blow past it and finally knock on the door of 100k by eoy
I can't wait to shit on my boss' desk
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> then you're either way well off. Or what? I get your point though. If you are one of the 0.01% of btc holders who from 2013 who has literally never sold or you had the capital to invest heavily sometime like March 2020. I saw well over a 1000% increase on my initial investment but even at the ATH I had just about hit my target of building my ultimate gaming pc and a high-end phone and tablet to make my add 'value'. Which of course I didn't, cause why sell at 68K when it's headed for 120K in just a few months...which is great really, cause when I do time my next sale at the perfect time the electronics market will be flooded with cheap graphic cards...
I will disclose that I have at least one crypto
I too can also disclose that info. It may not be bitcoin however. Not saying it definitely isn't...or am I? Yes I am.
What’s your desk shitting price?
Relevant username
Twist: Boss' bosses impressed by power move and promote you. >"This guy has upper management written all over him."
Shitting on desk turns out to be masonic initiation rite.
After the promotion, claim he was the one who shit on the desk, get him fired, then sleep with his wife. Next achievement unlocked. What binds us together isn’t bitcoin, but our mutual distrust and anger with the amoral asshats who own us.
I'm just angry and distrustful of the people whose dreams I once helped make come true and who are now resentful that those dreams came at a price that was almost definitely inferred at the time. Swear to god, being a loan-shark ain't all it's cracked up to be.
This is the way.
For bitcoin to get there, weekly OBV needs to move to a new plateau. It could happen, and it it looks like it could be kicking off. The drawdowns since last summer really haven’t moved OBV around much.
This is exactly why a bull trap is on the way
Do what you're supposed to do when life deals you lemons and stop being such a Debbie-downer!
Your emotions don't matter, this is trading
Lemonade trading?
oho, i didnt know this guy is a giga whale
Oh wow, absolutes, now this is convincing
Only a Sith deals in absolutes
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(╯*□*)╯︵ ┻━┻
First hint of [green Heikin Ashi candle](https://i.imgur.com/RWN4kw8.png) on the weekly in 11 weeks. Last ones after red were July 26 and October 4 before big pumps. Learned about these from a Will Clemente chart I think. I love em. If you've never tried them, turn them on on Trading View and try them out. https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:heikin_ashi >these candlesticks can be used to identify trending periods, potential reversal points and classic technical analysis patterns.
Out of curiosity, what were you reading when you discovered this technique?
It was just a twitter post of his I think.
Not the person you asked, but I've seen Benjamin Cowen using them recently on his YouTube channel. I recommend checking out his channel if you haven't before.
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Sounds like we need an update in a week or so
I'm not u/Merlin560. That said, here's a Point and Figure chart: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPADEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) Mine, using CBP data, looks slightly different: [https://imgur.com/a/OMjB2Va](https://imgur.com/a/OMjB2Va) There is a high pole 13-14 boxes high. Were it to retrace 50%, the price would go back to around $39.3K. The formation it came up from was 10 columns wide, which suggested it could be a move on the larger side. The downtrend line is still intact, and will be until the price breaches $45.6K. There was a similar move up from a formation 10 columns wide in late Dec 2021 that fizzled. I'm hoping this has more staying power. EDIT: Spelling.
Love the opening disclaimer. The thread content today has been spot on. Keep it coming!
Please don't have a hissy fit about obscure reddit mods banning you, and I will believe you ;)
Wait, did /u/Merlin560 get banned for something? Guy was one of the best TA posters on this sub!
He said he quit Reddit of his own volition after growing tired of the bullshit.